let's get more from bob pisani down at the new york stock exchange bob? >> hello, kelly. today it's time to play, let's turn all of the trends upside down take a look at the major indexes. what has been the big leader all month in terms of the major indices that are outperforming it's been the dow industrials. was up today, but underperforming, it's the dow industrials. what's been the big laggard all month in the major indices it's the nasdaq. what's the big leader today, it's the nasdaq. by the way, 38.55 on the s&p, that would be the highest close in two weeks since the middle of december so, again, keeping with the theme, turn the market upside down, what has hit new lows? what major big cap stocks have hit new lows this week, tesla, disney, apple, paypal, ford. what's leading the s&p 500 today on the upside, tesla, disney, apple, paypal, ford. don't you like it when this happens? herd mentality is not dead on wall street. also, let's flip that around what has been the leadership groups all throughout the month? largely, pharmaceutical stocks like merck hitting new hi

let's get to bob pisani over at the new york stock exchange. >> hello, kelly. happy new year, everybody. we're ending the year kind of where we've been for a good part of the year, which is on a modest down note with growth sectors underperforming. let's look at the major indices. we're down about 200 points in the dow jones industrial average. that's been an outperformer all throughout the year, relative outperformer s&p 500, the only real suspense here is whether we end the year down 20% or not. 3812 would be down 20% for the year that's kind of an extraordinary number when you get down 20, that doesn't happen very often. nasdaq is down more than 30% in fact, let's take a look at the major indices for 2022 the dow has been a relative outperformer, because it's only down 9% because it's got a lot of those consumer names, value names. the s&p, just on the cusp of down 20% the russell, you can see the nasdaq, the big loser down 33% why has the dow done so well, because of those value names you have energy stocks, a huge outperformer that's not typo. chevron up 5

ten-year rates at 3.44 bob pisani, new york stock exchange thank you. >>> and turning to retail. s&p retail down 3% on today's disappointing retail sales report off 31% this year declines in the report broad across most categories including furniture. autos and electronics, suggesting inflation is taking a toll on the u.s. consumer. here to discuss what this says about the consumer and health of the retail industry is ceo of storch advisers and former toys "r" us chairman and ceo. great to see you. >> my pleasure. >> you're about apparel and toys, merchandise in stores but i want to touch on one thing talking about the health of the u.s. consumer, but look at the auto report. down more nan 2% isn't that the one area we supposedly had a lot of pent-up demand what does it mean seeing alto sales decline by 2%? >> cars are expensive and often financed that requires -- interest rates have a huge impact on big-ticket items. absolutely no doubt it's hitting the consumer across the board. i look at this ort two numbers you need to know grocery up 8.6% year over year basis and department

our big theme of the day here, the markets versus the fed who's got it right bob pisani at the new york stock exchange with a look at what's going on with stocks, and steve liesman has a roundup of that data and central bank action bob, let's start with you. >> what's happening today is the soft landing crowd is having a horrible day, because the economic data is awful the soft landing crowd's thesis is, we're not going to have a hard landing earnings will be flat to maybe slightly up in 2023. we'll avoid this earnings apocalypse and things will be okay. the problem is, the data isn't really going in their way, and now they have a valuation problem for the stock market so, look here. we have the fed still higher for longer that's an issue. but now we have the soft landing case is a lot harder to make because the economy looks like it's starting to weaken. so earnings right now, the important thing is, how much do they need to drop? they're declining, but they need to drop more, if the economy is really slowing down dramatically the valuations, though, are still high believe it or not, t

let's get to bob pisani for a look at the markets. >> and we are sort of ending the year the way thene it's the triumph of value over growth so, take a look this morning on the sectors here semis down, communication services, weaker, consumer discretionary, weaker, and energy, there's value, down, but relatively outperforming energy's been the big winner for the year, of course. so, that's sort of the way the year has gone. major indexes in 2022, we're right on the cusp of a down 20% year in the s&p 500. that's a very rare occurrence, but the industrials, doing better russell 2000, almost the same amount nasdaq's been the big loser. so, want to look at this 20% decline level for the s&p. that level, we need to close at 3,812 or below that. you see that we're right there at 3,812, we go below that, and we're in down 20% territory. so, the bad news is this would be the fourth worst year for the stock market1945 that's right 2008 was worse, 1974, 2002, and 2022 looking like it's going to be down 20%. stocks do tend to rise in the following year, so we only get about one quarter of the y

bob pisani reporting. >>> so how hard will the brakes slam on earnings growth in 2023? and what will that do to stocks? talking about that joined by lorene gilbert, wealthwise financial ceo. just heard what bob said there, and what lots of people have been talking about you've got earnings growth slowing or maybe turning negative got potential for a recession of some severity over the horizon here you've got interest rates that are higher and rising and may well continue to rise. well into 2023 that does not sound like a recipe for people to make much money in equities. agreed disagree i think we do not have lorene's audio. i think she was -- kelly, getting ready to agree with me. >> how could she not >> i made the case so trenchantly there. there we got her did you hear my question, lorene >> i did heard it all. >> let's hear your answer now. >> yes we know that 2022 has been dismal both in equities and fixed income now as we look to 2023 we know that those earnings per share are going down what i think people often miss is that the pes will start to expand and multiply

on the markets, stocks, bonds, commodities and the gop's roadmap to fight esg let's start with bob pisanireat to see you. we are flat on the day, but a lot of movement. we've been listening on the goldman sachs conference a lot of companies reporting outlook for 2023 big mover, m and t bank. they reported net interest income would be lower than expected, suggesting lower profitability. that stock is essentially at a low for the year fifth third also reported today. generally i would describe the commentary as cautious, but not pessimistic. take a look at the home builders toll brother had earnings out. orders down 60%. quite a move to the downside first quarter seems to be starting slowly, but they're buying back a lot of stock and investors seem to be trying to position themselves for a better second half of 2023. those stocks are moving today. remember, homebuilders were the first group to turn down early in january they've turned around since bottoming in october finally on game stop, we are waiting for earnings to come out. the stock has really collapsed in the last three days probabl

next year, the analysts join us coming up >>> first, let's check on markets, and for that we go to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange bob? >> hello, kelly, and happy new year the important thing about today, we have an unusual situation the dow is doing well, it's on the upside, s&p is not and you're getting a little more help from the defensive sectors. i'll show you that in the middle s&p 500 down six points. have the santa claus rally worked, you would have to stay over 2832. that's where we were on thursday seven days from there, if it's above that, it's considered a victory for the santa claus rally. nasdaq has had a lot of problems, mostly because of what tesla has been doing i'll show you that in a minute here's the dow leaders this is the story all year round. what's working drugs are working, pharmaceutical stocks, consumer staples like procter & gamble and coca-cola and energy stocks like chevron this is the story all year they're called value stocks, folks, generally, most of them are value. they have been the big story this year in the dow that's why the dow has been outper

is the santa claus rally in jeopardy let's bring in bob pisani from the new york stock exchange and steve to discuss what's next with the economy. gentlemen, welcome bob, what gives today? >> well, look, the problem is very simple. just look at the s&p 500 it's down 2.5% but big chip names, including micron and nvidia, they're down 6, 7, 8, 9%. this tells you that there's a major problem with micron. so with micron, they're a big bellwether in the tech area. these dram chips are in everything, in cell phones, pcs, data centers we are expecting them to say inventory's under control and we've got everything covered in 2023 instead, inventory is not under control. you can blame samsung if you want they keep producing. but what's happening now is the street is realizing there's way too much inventory still and they're reducing -- they're going to be reducing their earnings estimates for the chips and a lot of other pieces of the tech sector in 2023. >> steve, what would you say, the larger questions, we're seeing it in chips, starting to hear talk a lot about it in autos. is it going to sprea

back to you. >> thank you let's get to bob pisani. >> kelly, it's been a strange month for the stock market let me show you this chart stocks are sideways, the s&p 500 essentially sideway this is month at a time when bond yields has been moving down normally declining bond yields is good for the stock market however, the market is changing its obsession with -- and the obsession with inflation in 2022 to an obsession with recession generally, bond yields declining when there's worries about inflation is good for stocks when you shift the obsession to recession, bond yields declining are bad because it indicates that the markets overall expecting more severe recession. so that's going to be a bit of an issue the market has been holding up very well, though, given worries about recession. you saw the blather the market got itself into. we saw bank stocks down 8, 9, 10, 11%. look at this, m and t, bank of america. most of them were cautious but not gloomy the market extrapolated some of those worries overall. i think we're going to get cpi data on tuesday. i think that will have another

let's get right to bob pisani. he has a look at the fizzling rally and why this report didn't do more to support a sustainable rally. >> there were a lot of people buying at the open let me show you the major indices today. the high print was the open. we hit 4100 on the s&p 500 and essentially just dribbled lower from there we're still on the upside here, but we were, again, 80 points higher dow has been weighed down by defensive names like united health, mcdonald's, procter & gamble nasdaq has been helped by a strong day for the big caps. nvidia, meta bouncing back, amazon has been strong, alphabet has been strong, lam research, some of the other chips strong today. what's weighs down things? travel is tough. jetblue had an interesting comment saying demand may be waneping and that's hitting the airlines and some of the other travel names like norwegian cruise line. those are the bigger decliners another new low also a big name, tesla. big cut in half this year, essentially. this is a two-year low for tesla. we k

let's bring in and introduce bob pisani as well also rick santelli joins the conversation so this group as you can see in front of you here has a lot of expertise. maybe we'll send it out to rick first with some of the reaction on the interest rate and macro side of things it wasn't a for sure, rick it was definitely movement in the marketplace, but it was nothing that i would characterize as being unexpected or out of the ordinary markets did move but not by a whole heck of a lot. >> no. and when you set the table for interest rates to give some context, they have been moving rather dramatically lower, considering the fed's path and today we see that two-year note spiked up they spiked up towards 4.26ish and they're coming back down a little bit but they're a little more sticky than 10s which paumd up to 3.55 and came back down a bit. these are not huge moves and the fact that we're even near 3.50 after having a 4.25 high yield close for 10s or 4.70 for 2-year and hovering at 4.22, 4.23, these rates of low when you look at dot plots and how far out they're predicting inflation is going

bob pisani joins me from the floor of the new york stock exchange and brian cheung. why are investors so worried right now? why are we seeing so much red? >> the problem we have right now is the stock market can't decide what kind of economic situation we will have in 2023, so 2022 is about trying to figure out what kind of inflation are we having, we know it is fairly high but coming down, and 2023 is about trying to figure out what kind of recession are we going to have if any. there are a lot of people arguing what you call a soft landing that we will slow down but not dramatically. that's why the stock market has come off of the lows recently that it had in october but now the fed yesterday said we will stay higher for longer, interest rates stay higher for longer and it creates greater chances of a hard landing, a harder landing, and worst numbers today, industrial production, and people are arguing it will be okay, a soft landing, and now they're on the defensive, and now more concern that the economy will be a little worse, worse than a lot of people thought.

bob pisani before we go to break, let's get a look at the bonds this morning.friday before a three-day weekend we got new homes coming up in about ten minutes. we'll see what confidence and infl inflation expectations look like back in a moment >>> s&p laggards for the week. a reminder of what has not worked this week, namely some chips, some travel, but nothing worse than tesla extending its worst drawdown in history, worst quarter ever over a two-year stack worst decline than bitcoin on tesla. take a break and be back in a minute what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats so they don't bring you to a grinding halt. and everyone's going places, including you. let's create cybersecurity that keeps your business on track. ibm. let's create you want to see something cool? xfinity rewards is how we go beyond sa

bob pisani has today's numbers hi, bob. >> so great to see you back. i love seeing that beautiful face of yours on tv again. i wish we were up today. everything is down essentially 1% and it's because we've had an issue with the jobs report, stronger than expected, ism services stronger than expected, but don't worry, by and large we've had a great quarter. first our technology here, crm, microsoft, weighing on the dow right now, broadly -- i would say broad com and semithe other weak group are finances. goldman sachs has a big conferences tomorrow this is one of the big ones that everybody watching american express will kick it off in the morning we'll get an update on how the consumer is doing. that may have an impact to why -- the other weak sector is apparel, loudered their earnings estimates. this is the second time in the last couple months they have done that, so all aparity make respect you lower. target, which is apparel heavy, also on the down side. so considering, kelly we've had two reports here, a jobs report and ism services, we're only d

. >>> let's get to bob pisani back with us breaking down the market action so far. santa rally >> we're positive on the dow when you and i were on, we were negative we're positive, thanks to boeing, and we've seen nice moves up in other industrials like caterpillar and the energy stocks doing well. look at the upside leaders in the s&p. still struggling to get in positive territory on the s&p. if you look at wynn, obviously the casino and las vegas sands china reopening story. freeport metal, china reopening story. apa always in leadership, oil has gone from $70 to $80 in the last couple of weeks we have new highs. two dow components are at new highs today. merck has been a huge mover this quarter, up about 30%. caterpillar another one. that's -- caterpillar was $180 in the beginning of the quarter. it's $240 now. another 30% move here. new 52-week-high the market is obsessed with tech and the very poor fourth quarter and full-year performance of tech names two big new lows on the s&p today, tesla, you know that, new 52-week-low. apple is also just now at a 52-week-

let's get to bob pisani. >> we're finally getting a little mini rally.r days down and potentially two days up. seven to one advancing the declining stocks most importantly, something that's acted terribly is acting better today i talk often be about risk on, risk off stuff consumer discretionary banks just awful month bournsing. retail awful month bouncing. arc innovation awful month bouncing as well these sectors are down 10% or more so it's nice to see a little bit. it's early to talk about a santa claus rally given what's happened in the last few weeks butthat's certainly very encouraging. if you have to look at it, nike is the key story today expectations very low on the three metrics that everybody cared about, we had good news. on inventory, holidays and china. inventory, peak inventory is behind us. on holiday sales, on black friday, holiday momentum has accelerated. on china, the first positive year over year in five quarters, up 6%. all three metrics better than expected earnings, what's number one and number two on the s&p today? nike and fed e

how are other startups thinking about valuations and marking their port portfolios let's bring in bob pisani for some context these valuation cuts not necessarily good news for the employees or vcs, but the retail investor, could they finally see, you know, a deal or at least some better price action on ipos next year if in fact the ipo market opens >> yes, short answer is yes. and it is about time this is -- 2023 will be the year of the haircut the unicorns are not in demand, unicorns being usually tech valuations over $1 billion and you saw that today with what was going on with instacart. so what you are going to see is all of these companies are going to be under pressure to cut their price. and we actually have a little bit of a playbook here with a recent ipo remember what happened with mobile eye, mobile eye was a device company -- renaissance capital by the way lowest level since the pandemic so these are companies that have gone public mostly in the last two years and you can see what the valuations are but i want to put up mobile eye for a minute, they went public in october the pr

bob pisani this morning.s we go to break, let's take a look the a bonds today of course, the big number of the week is tomorrow that's ppi and inflation expectations but for now, yields are mostly higher still watching that inversion between two tens, the highest in several decades. we'll be right back. to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's mak

looking a little better than it was an hour ago dow is down less than 600 points we'll start with bob pisanithe new york stock exchange. bob, what's the latest >> well, that's where i am we're coming off the lows but don't kid yourself look, there was concerns about the economic numbers this morning, but what's happened today is a takedown of the tech earnings for 2023, the s&p's down 2.5%. big tech names down 5, 6, 7% we've got a lot of names at new two week lows. it's sifrmple, to the extent tht micron is a tech leader because we have all of these d ram chips, they're in everything, they're in pcs, cell phones, data centers so this concern that that inventory glut is going to apply to the rest of the market, i'm just taking down estimates across the board speculative tech, same situation, a lot of cathie wood stuff sitting at or near 52-week lows zscaler, roku, teledoc, they're within 1% of a new low you want to look at the proxies for growth it's interesting that oil is only down fractionally, but the big oil names are down 5 or 6% to me that's a sign of growth concerns out there, overall

thanks, bob pisani quick reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim.ed it a couple moments ago. sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on your screen we'll check bonds on our way out here before a short break. most of the curve, a little bit lower today. dollar, still sub-104. watching this commensurate spike in oil as well back in a minute not quite to yesterday intraday high, but awfully close. anthony noto buys almost 5 million, 1.1 million shares between friday and yesterday we'll keep an eye on that. early session highs, dow up 142. "stop trading" with jim is up next >>> jim, what's on "mad" tonight? >> let's just call it on lightning round, someone called a super micro computer, smci i didn't know it very expensive stock we'll take a hard look at it tomorrow we've got an investor club meeting you never know what we're going to recommend but we have something. >> we do >> yes it makes money it does things that's what we've been looking for. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time when we come

okay let's get to bob pisani now for a look at the market action we're seeing this morning. bob? open, but we had a nice little move up, because we had a broad rally here take a look at the sectors we're getting a bounce in some of the risk-on stuff, cathie wood's ark funds, tech's doing a little bit better. healthcare is doing a little bit better on top of that, energy's the one that's lagging, but that's been the big mover. in terms of nice movers today, remember the big lows today, tesla, new low, bouncing today apple, a new low yesterday that's bouncing a little bit today. nvidia, flattish at the open and amazon just a terrible year. that's also up fractionally. you were talking about tesla and who owns it. this is pretty obvious and pretty easy to say here. about 25% of tesla's owned by institutions, and it's really only 5 or 6 companies that own the 25%. i could show you that in a minute but insiders, that's almost entirely elon musk he owns probably 14% and the other 1%, some other group of insiders there's your retail investors. you see the breakdown here, a quarter of th

bring in our market watcher bob pisani looking at the bright side stocks seem to be reference be, and emrick santelli what the bond market is telling us as the yield curve is really negative bob, begin with you. >> even the stock market has differences, price action it bullish. look at this chart of the s&p 500 for the year we've been in a serious down trend. we're about to break that, above that blue line would be an uptrend in the market here that's where we seem to be heading. look at the good and bad a lot more good news and that bad news for stocks recently s&p 500 way off of the lows there, about 15% recently. two-year yields a down trend dollar's in a down trend below its 200-day moving average. the problem. earnings going down. stock up, earnings down. this is not good somebody's wrong lowering numbers including jpmorgan dropped estimates for 2023 on a gloomy economic analysis here. goldman sachs, barclays, bank of marc, all below analysts consensus for 2022 $231 some are significantly low, down 15% or to 20%. a big disparity. what's going on? gloomy about the economic outlook

bob pisani it's funny, jim, we haven't talked this much about what was a big rally yesterday. >> oh, top of my show to it, how extraordinary it was i think what you have to recognize was a lot of it was faang. they had been down, down, down. >> there was a huge rebound in so many of the names we talk about. >> it said, look, yes, we're absolutely going to have tough quarters but maybe '23 is better we're all in december. december, what do we care about 2023 >>> we have time for a quick "stop trading. >> pvh had a bad, bad, bad quarter and now having a good quarter. cal calvin kline and tommy hilfiger had good quarters. >> what's on the show? >> five below, remember what that is -- >> i have now been instructed, yes, as to what they are >> we have a tougher one, george kurtz, crowdstrike, who had his first, what i would say, not as strong quarter stock was down very badly. >> that's a good interview, actually looking forward to that. >> thank you >> i watched your hormel last night, too >> i didn't drink any -- >> you only drink it with us applegate -- >> yeah. i'll see you there late

bob pisani with us >> it's a lousy day for the soft landing crowd.s were lousy, the ecb is raising its inflation forecast remember, there's a whole crowd out there watching the strategists and analysts lower their earnings estimates for 2023 they're actually negative. most strategists have negative earnings estimates for 2023. that's not good for valuations there's a whole crowd playing against them that's why prices are so high right now. they're saying, we're going to have a soft landing. the strategists are all wrong. earnings are not going to fall apart in 2023. you get this data today and it says, this is not good for the economy. maybe they're right. people are lightening up on positions. this is what i call the valuation problem for the market prices are high butearnings ar coming down. strategists think earnings are going to go down 6%. that's a forward multiple of 19. when you get over 18, you have major problems because the historic average is 17 when you're over 18, it's dot-com, '99-2000. to have a multiple at 19 or 20, you've got to argu

we'll start with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. the rally, bob >> two things, number one. consumer confidence came in better than expected that's helpful we want consumers to be confident good news is good news and great earnings from nike and fed fedex. nike is the most important thing and this is the biggest mover on the s&p 500 right now. so we had better inventory better holiday sales and better comments on china. the big three, low expectations, they exceeded those expectations double digit gains carnival had decent, not amazing earnings the important thing is bookings were strong. that's why we're seeing those cruise lines move to the upside. another group that's doing better is the home builders. existing home sales are on the disappointing side, but mortgage rates are continuing to come down 6.3% versus 7.2 about six, seven weeks ago. all homebuilder s are moving to the upside another group that had a terrible december were the banks. big names were 10%down 52-week lows not long ago and they're bouncing nicely today. that's

let's bring in bob pisani.his all has to do with extraordinary events and whether we think interest rate hikes will be something extraordinary. >> yeah. higher for longer. the russia invasion, the lingering effects of covid these are three extraordinary events that may and likely will spill over into 2023 down years are fairly unusual. of course we have seen big down years in the nasdaq. s&p 500. the only suspect is if it's down or not this is mostly due to what we're seeing in the growth areas of technology and growth services the important thing and here's something that's interesting in down years, it is a little different than you have up years. when you have an up year, the sectors that really tend to outperform tend to outperform in the following year in other words, you let your winners ride when you have a down year, it is a little different the worst performing sectors from the prior year tend to outperform let's look at this the sectors that were the best performers this year, everybody knows it is en

. >> deere as well >> yes let's get to bob pisani for more on what's moving this thursday morning. , bob. >> good morning, morgan. hello, everybody, happy new year we are all 11 sectors on the upside but let's not kid ourselves. the momentum's been terrible, particularly growth, as mike mentioned earlier this year and this month has been the triumph of value over growth in terms of sectors that have momentum, weak momentum in the last few weeks, well, guess what it's all growth. ark innovation's been terrible this month overall it's down about 20% for the month. retail has been terrible tech's been awful. communication services, generally, the trend has been down the last several weeks. and what's held up comparatively better it's all the value stuff that's done better. so, utilities, for example, are flat this month. energy is down maybe 1% or 2%. consumer staples are holding up. it's down only a couple percent. this is relative outperformance, so here is what you -- broad group, defensive, you can call them semivalue stocks as well, but that's what's going on here. in terms of the

but first bob pisani has more on the markets. >> here is what is important you see those energy stocks? those were the three big mover on the s&p, all are energy stocks today biggest movers but more importantly, bank stocks are rallying a little bit this week. remember this awful month of december they had? goldman sachs financial conference was a disaster, we had new lows in comerica for example. but this week they are stabilizing. banks and in, are doing better these are the super regional banks and they are stabilized after an awful three week this is december. big cap tech also stabilizing today. of course the big story yesterday, micron oiis a bellwether for general tech demand and innvidia not bouncing. but semiconductor stocks are on a down trend for the s&p, kind of flattish, down maybe half a% for percentr the week, but december is normally an up month maybe we'll get it in the next couple of days of course this is the start of the santa claus rally, last five day of the old year, first two of the new year, average gain is 1.3% and here is the point about this, i like this ind

thing they seem to agree on is that no one has any idea the crystal ball is getting harder to read bob pisani joins us with more. >> it's that time of year. everyone is making predictions about how everything's going to look one year from now the problem is there's a lot of disagreement about what that's going to look like let me show you. strategists, like analysts, tend to be a somewhat optimistic lot. the average 22 strategists surveyed expect earnings at the s&p at 4,078 at this time next year, up about 7% from where we are now. but dispersion is very high. the high is 4,750. the low is 3,400 that would be down 10% it's unusual to have that wide of dispersion, and it indicates how difficult it is to figure things out in the next year. we have an unusual series of problems to deal with. obviously, we had the continuing effects of covid, particularly in china we've got the russia invasion of ukraine. and most importantly, the fed higher for longer. nobody can agree on what kind of recession, if any, we'll have. any one of thesealone would create a big range of economic outcomes put all thre

bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange >> the short answer is the odds are not very good it will happen again, but it could. there's a lot of people worried with a down year in 2022 and still heading down, 2023 could be another down year it's possible but statistically very unlikely. this is where it's important to know about market history. there's been actually only four periods, four series of events where the s&p has been down back to back years. down once four years in a row in the depression, '23 to '32, and then from '31 to '41, and then down two years in a row during the big oil crisis in 1973 to 1974 so really only four times has it ever been down back-to-back more than two or mere years in a row. the last consecutive down years, as you saw there, 2000 to 2002 another important question is, down 20% years, this is very unusual. we're almost down 20%. we were down 25% peak to trough. these are very, very unusual declines here. down 20% to 30% has only happened seven times since 1945. there have been a few more extreme events, down 30% to 40% happened three times these are

but first, we begin with the market numbers for that, back to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> kelly, good to see you, as always the bottom line is very simple this mini boom let that began with jay powell last wednesday remember that speech it's basically over. we've completely on a round trip take a look at the major indices right now. dow industrials are being weighed down goldman is notably weak today. basically, it's a very defensive day today. the only thing that's up is names like united health, mcdomd's, coca-cola, other big names like visa are to the downside the s&p is being weighed down by tech stocks, consumer discretionary. nasdaq is the weakest sector, as you can see here not only are the arc stocks down, semiconductors are also underperforming. and if you look at big cap tech in general, meta is not having a good day, as you can see here, down about 6%. most of the semiconductors like advanced microand nvidia are weak apple is 1.7%. travel stocks are weak today now, we had some downward -- jpmorgan downgraded royal caribbean there. and carnival is weak,

the question is, again, if we see -- there are sort of two big possibilities for next year and bob pisani talks about this, i know people who have forecasts of $40 a barrel and $60 a barrel oil. will we have to be beholden to that if the worst case scenarios don't pan out and china comes on line oil spikes again and if not and we are going into a recession, i guess you have the answer there. >> certainly a lot with china reopening i think they will go through what we saw in the united states, covid cases could surge into the spring and that could keep oil prices under some selling pressure for the next couple of months until they get that under wraps of course, russia producing and exporting oil is a key element to this as well. as long as exports continue to countries like india and china and turkey, that could keep oil prices under pressure, but if china suddenly reemerges at full force here in the next couple months, then we could see certainly upside risk in oil prices hitting the triple digits yet again. that combined with opec plus policy will be the key elements driving prices and

let's head to bob pisani for a look at the latest market numbers. for the week at the lows for the day in fact for the lows for the week, a very rough three days. not a lot of new lows but some notable ones i want to show you some things credit cards have had a tough week capital one at a new 52-week low yesterday. discover was down, amex is weighing on the dow this week, probably down 5%, 5.5% for the week not a lot of new lows elsewhere, but some of the financials, some of the big large regional banks have been terrible performers since the goldman sachs conference a week or so ago, that's a new low for comerica, m & t bank, they dropped dramatically after presenting at that elsewhere in tech land, salesforce is also a 52-week low, near a two-year low in fact i have been talking about the reits. a lot of concerns about the office reits and to a lesser extent about some of the regional mall reits. so sl green, that's a new low. that's the lowest in many years for sl green those are mall properties. they're down about 30% for the year so where are we

she joins us here alongside bob pisani and it's great to have you guys both along with us.mily, you're always kind of trying to make the case for value here why do you think that 2023 is going to be an especially perfect year for this kind of activity. >> thanks, yeah. i think it's a couple of factors that are coming together first, obviously the macroeconomic is challenging right now with interest rates on the rise and stock market volatile and heading downward at various points so, you know, really sort of seeing that a lot of times what this does is that it makes the priority on focus that divestitures can help achieve important. by divesting certain businesses, companies are able to focus in on new resources in key areas of business that are central to their charge really helping them to align around those priorities as opposed to having a more diffuse portfolio. the second reason is also that we can really see divestitures helping to generate liquidity in certain cases and that can be a much-needed source of capital as well >> bob, what do you say? she's providing the

sharon epperson brings us the verbal clues let's start with these markets, though bob pisani, run us through the numbers, sir >> well, we're ping-ponging around the markets are having a hard time finding out what side it wants to be on basically, everything's down about 0.6%, right across the board. but there's a couple of broad stories going on here. let's just do a check on what's moving the markets first off, we have seasonally light volume nobody's buying anything or selling anything particularly heavy quantities right now the major story the next few weeks is rising yields, and that is impacting particularly tech stocks, which are underpressure. the other major story is the china reopening story. i'll put it simple is it good news or bad news? the markets are having a hard time deciding on that. yesterday, all the china reopening stuff, casinos and metal stocks, which are the two proxies for reopening, were all up everyone was happy today not so happy, a lot of concerns about potential large-scale illnesses over there so sort of looking at the flip side of the coin which way is

wime i'm halle jackson in washington and bob pisani joins us on the mark slide and what can be done tostop it at this point? >> it is really up to the federal reserve at this point. the federal reserve is in charge of two things. keeping the job going, job growth, and fighting inflation. that is what they were literally created to do. they're really worried about inflation. much more worried than they are about jobs right now. the jobs market is pretty good. so they keep raising interest rates, to try to fight inflation. they don't have many tools to fight inflation. all they can do is try to keep raising short-term interest rates and what that does, is it slows down the economy. and the problem is, they always overshoot. they don't want to cause a recession. but they do that because they raise rates so high, that it induces a recession. so how do you make that perfect balance, they never fight kwirged that out and now people are concerned that they keep raising interest rates so much, they will induce a more serious recession than people thought before and that's why the stock market

the dow is down 417 points all 11 sectors in the s&p are lower. 3935 to bob pisani's point last hour we've kind of round-tripped to where we were before we heard from powell. way down in energy and tech particularly today oil trading poorly the s&p's down four days in a row and the nasdaq is down another 2% take a look at big cap tech as well meta down 6% today amd, nvidia down 3%. apple down 2%. 143 the latest there and according to cnbc.com morgan stanley cutting 2% of its global staff. the move impacts about 1600 of the company's 81,000 employees shares are just off session lows, jon, down about 3.2% >> yeah, kelly, and as you just mentioned one of the biggest questions facing the economy is whether the consumer is stressed according to jefferies credit card balances are growing up 15% year over year meanwhile the savings rate falling to 2.3% vs. the pre-pandemic average of 8.8% here on cnbc ceos of some of the world's biggest companies are growing concerned about spending >> they're still stressed. we serve everybody americans come to walmart. we've got some customers who are mor

bob pisani is here to fill us in on what is going on. >> i know tepper got headlines and this is aboutbe re-rating the analyst estimates and they'll be re-rated for 2023 and the question as 2024 and you can take a look at what's going on with the sectors and it's the semiconductors that are weakest and it's ark, dow jones internet and those are the weakest sectors right now. micron is at a new low and it's essentially at a two-year low and it's essentially sitting right at a two-year low and the key thing is that everything was negative here and weak outlook, lower demand and significant oversupply, right across the board. 10% staff cuts and suspending the buybackses and keeping the dividend, thank heavens and you know, david, the analysts are classic glass half full guys and they're always looking for troughs. they love talking about troughs. forget it. not a single one and the wells fargo headline, it's ugly and that was the headline. deutsche bank, and the losses amounts over the cycle goes on and on and on. you see what this is doing to the semiconductor capital equipment stocks an

let's get over to bob pisani, get more of what's going on. bob? expiration strike price. when we did that overnight, we took another leg down. semis are holding up micron, amd, broadcom. there are the reits, just not looking good they haven't been looking good all year sl green is at a 13-year low now. a lot of worries about the office reit situation. vornado not a new low, but down 45%. regional malls like macerich, simon property down 30% on the year a quarterly expiration day we saw enormous at the opening we'll get a rebalancing of the s&p 500. happens four times a year. huge volume and usually does not result in price moves. although, overnight had we broke through 3900 on the s&p, we de see a move to the downside expiration is secondary to the issue for stocks still higher for longer. the economic data is sort of turning against the hard -- the soft landing crowd yesterday's data was just awful. it's making a harder -- difficult case to argue for a soft landing that means earnings have to decline even more. they've been coming down the valua

. >> all right let's get over to bob pisani for more on this broader market, particularly after thoseob? >> good morning, david good to see you and jim as well. so, the report does not support the narrative, the market wants, which is inflation is moderating, but we opened down about 40 points on the s&p, given the rally that we've seen, really since the bottom of october, that is not a terrible response look at the sectors today. as you might imagine, the classic risk-off, risk-on, risk-off sectors, ark and semis are the weakest ones that's not a surprise. i look at -- there's that china internet, kweb, still strong today, and the metals and energy stocks, proxies for global growth, are holding up relatively well. so, just take a look at some of the energy names generally, energy opened positive oil's been fairly steady in the mid-80s right now, so devin, slb, marathon, mosaic, some of the metals and mining companies, some of the materials companies are a little bit stronger. i think that's a good sign indicating at least that there's not worries the global economy is weakening is th

after we got ecodata hotter than expected the ism unemployment index back above 50 let's get to bob pisaniore market reaction. >> the ism higher than expected, jobs higher than expected. we're lower than thursday, only 1% sector, risk-off as you might anticipate we keep an eye on arkk, that was weaker at the open, semis, energy weaker. the china play, the energizer bunny keeps going. it's running out of steam. if you look at the big stocks that trade on the new york stock exchange like alibaba, kind of on the flat side today that stock was 60 something a short while ago, a month or so ago, month and a half ago. now these are 90 they're starting to run out of steam at this point. keep an eye on banks and credit cards. goldman sachs will have a big financial services conference tuesday and wednesday. and will speak tomorrow on the state of the consumer. we'll get an update on how the banks are doing in the next couple of days flattish today biggest decliner on the s&p 500 right now, vf corp that's an apparel maker. they've had had a terrible year. vf corp is down 55, 60% on the year ralph la

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, guys.ied preopen when the productivity numbers came out better than expected, unit labor costs were lower, bond yields turned lower, the ten-year yield, 3.46%, that's the lowest since mid-september, so we're flattish today, but we came off the lows on those productivity numbers at 8:30. take a look at the sectors generally a little more risk on, although the banks are weak again today, so ark innovation was up slightly. it's now flat. vaneck, semiconductors, smh, a good risk on indicator was up. metals and mining also up. that's an interesting risk on one. it's the banks that have generally been weak this week, and some of them are pretty bad. moving to the downside we've seen 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% declines in some of the banks today, so fifth third just presented at the goldman-sachs financial conference, and deposits expected them to grow into 2023. generally positive comments, maybe a little bit of slowing in certain areas. zions had a new 52-week low. they presented recently, and that's just

s&p up four points let's get to bob pisani. >> happy friday.is really quite a victory for the bulls. we dropped 60 points on the s&p initially at 8:30 eastern time when the ppi came out a little bit hotter than expected we were up prior to this, but again, this is really quite remarkable let's take a look at the sectors. a couple things i want to point out. we're seeing metals again on the upside, some of the reverberation of the china trade, industrials are okay. energy is flat today, but that's kind of remarkable even then and semiconductors are positive. so, sort of growth sectors, risk on, like metals and mining and semiconductors are up. i want to show you energy stocks we're flat on energy, but some of the big names, the higher beta names, were generally trading up at the open, like apa, eog hall halliburton was also up. this is rather remarkable here when you consider the fact that oil is sitting near the lows for the year energy stocks are not really buckling at all. they're off of their highs, but they're not even close to really buckl