bob pisani, thank you. mike, of course, to you. we're red big time. not 500 but the dow down 437 as we speak. to "ot" with morgan and jon. >>> a lot of red on your screen with the dow having its worst day since march and the ten-year treasury yield hitting a fresh high going back 16 years. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." fundstrat's tom lee breaks down the storm clouds that are growing in the market and if he thinks the highs are in for the year. >>> later moody's chief economist mark zandi as yields get another significant pop.

bob pisani with today's "etf edge."b >>> i am here at vanguard headquarters in pennsylvania sitting on the company's brand-new trading floor, and it's beautiful, the largest mutual fund and etf provider and the second largest asset manager, $7.8 trillion in assets under management let's talk with the man in charge of those etfs, greg davis. greg, before i ask about the etf business, direction of interest rates right now. what are you telling vanguard investors where interest rates are heading into 2024? >> thanks for the question, bob. what we've been trying to tell investors, they have to stay invested for the long term and the higher interest rate environment is something that for long-term investors they're having an opportunity to be more diversified, to be in money market funds operating 5.25 type yield. there are opportunities we really haven't seen. long-term investors, we think there's a lot of compelling value in money markets, bond funds, and when you talk about the direction of interest rates, again, we think

. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know and why bob pisaniinterest rates is setting up for an impressive november >>> if you miss us, check us out on your favorite podcast app more "wex" coming up after this. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. and cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. try cirkul. your water, your way. now with even more flavors. available at walmart or drinkcirkul.com. >>> welcome back time for the "wex wrap-up. we start with bp with the drop in profit of $3.2 billion. weakness from the gas division is offsett

bob pisani is down at the new york stock exchange. what do you make of the action today? >> make in the long run, now in the short run. rates have moved up. forget about it. the market is in a complete tizzy. we'll have to hear what sheila has to say about this. the consumer names, coca-cola, some of the other names, procter and game able. conagra, so-and-so. the lower-end consumer, the s&p 500, we need a bit more energy here. they were briefly positive, for a nanosect. 13,000 the last two weeks, i would say again. just let me show you the idea of being oversold. since september, that's when the rates started moving up? well oversold conditions here, that's really the problem. i'm calling it a yield object section. it's a buyers strike. the buyers just don't want to buy anything. so when will it start to stabilize? just look what's happening. right across the board, amex, home depot, mcdonald's coca-cola. verizon is down 7%, u.s. bank corp is not in the dow, but you get the point here. in the meantime we're dealing with the head-spinning moving in literally this week here

back to you, frank. >> that was bob pisani.with more is jenny harrington and gordon johnson. great to have you here. good morning. >> thanks. >> good morning. >> i'm going to start off with jenny. higher for longer. how does that impact for you? you are known as our resident dividend investor. does that change the thesis? >> not at all. it really is because of the inflation component. that 5% sounds really great, but it sounds better with 2% inflation. right now, cpi is at 3.7%. your real rate of return on the 5% treasury is only 1.3%. if you buy a treasury bond and you are getting 5% and holding until maturity, that is all you are getting. the coupon yield maturity will not grow. on dividend stocks, the average growth over the past 70 years has been 5.7%. not only do you have potential capital appreciation, but because they're stocks on the share price, but you have the dividend growing. that out paces inflation in an important way. one more thing, frank -- >> higher for longer, you are still bullish on dividend stocks? >> eve

let's get post to post with bob pisani. >> hello, carl. it's great the s&p is up ten points.ion for september. a big cap tech is helping. but higher rates, higher dollar. just killing. utilities and real estate investment trusts. we talk about this a lot last week. smile, anthony. here's dominion. another new low. the low list is littered with utility stocks. these things have collapsed in the last two weeks. one thing you can't see up here, current yield, 2.6. on a utility. these normally yield 3%, 4%. they're all the same. doesn't matter what business they're in, what part of the utility business, where located. eversource, another one here. down 4% right now. 5% dividend yield right now. again, 1%, 2% -- 1, 2 points higher than they normally would be. keep an eye on that. it's an ongoing story. consumer discretionary had a big problem because the impulse is higher rates, pressure on consumer, sell discretionary. sell autos, sell anything related to that. sell housing stocks. autozone, which had a decent earnings report not long ago, september 19th. this is one of the highe

let's go "post to post" with bob pisani for a look. >> 50 points in the s&p, just off the highs. we have a day when the yields are up and the stock market is holding up. this has been happening a little more recently, and it's very good news because we're at the high end of a recent trade arrangement for s&p for one month. a lousy september it was overall. what's helping is tech is not going down anymore. if you look at some of the big software names like snowflake, essentially these names are sideways in the last two months. you might think that's not enough trend, but sideways is good with interest rates up in tech. software is holding up. salesforce, big dow component, also essentially sideways the last couple of months. again, that's a real victory. just holding up is fine. i'll tell you what worries me -- look at vanguard. this is what you want to watch. this is the vanguard megacap etf. it's got apple, microsoft, tesla, nvidia, all the big-cap tech. this is 5% from the new high. we're moving up here. 4% now essentially from a new 52-week high. that's how well that sector is

let's get post-to-post with bob pisani. hey, bob. >> down today.f you're hoping that cyclical stocks like industrials would do better because the economy is still strong, unfortunately, that story isn't really playing out. it's been a rough day for the industrials. new lows in some of these airline stocks, like alaska groups, remember, american airline, new low. united beat, but they talked about higher fuel costs impacting them. there's a little uncertainty about the tel aviv route. that's for them, for united. so that's weighing on the sector, generally. that's a big issue, but more importantly, i think it's the way the global industrials are acting. the caterpillars, the johnson controls. this is a company, they do security and hvac and fire control, all of the stuff behind the wallace in the big commercial buildings around the world, they do. this stock is very near 52-week low. in fact, here it is. you can see it's been stlashlgt down, but a lot of these industrial stocks have been weak recently. those cyclical names aren't really doing any ki

bob pisani.ollowing through on the small gains they had yesterday, despite this slight move lower in yields today. not all stocks in the sector are created equal, and if yields continue their march higher, some might be ahead more than others. joining us this morning with his outlook on the space, julianne smith. it's great to have you. worst-performing sector of the year. is it too early to start looking for value? >> look, i'm not going to step in here. again, you've seen a little bit of a crisis of confidence with nexterra here in the recent days. my point to you would be, look, this is the figurative canary in the coal mine for the space. they're just the first of a slew of different companies that will be out there talking about their guidance updates here. third quarter, fourth quarter will be a challenging time. i'm frankly not all that surprised given the set-up here that you're not seeing that much of a bid for the sector, heading into a slew of further roifrs in just the weeks ahead, ri

bob pisani is here with the movers. >> 10% through earnings we've had almost all earnings beat but not the light side. look at the sectors, energy is doing well, some new breakouts in energy as oil is holding up around $87, the s&p 500. but staples are rebounding, semiconductors are weak, asml had a decent report but trading down. the transports are a problem as we're seeing not just jb hunt but the big names in the sector, airlines down today. megacaps holding in there, microsoft, alphabet, apple -- apple just went negative. sort of a mixed performance there but overall holding up well. new lows, a lot of transports. robinson, american airlines. there's morgan stanley down big on a new low there and some of the other investing companies as well. the transports, ual, jb hunt, american, alaska, this is a broad group of logistics and airlines having a tough time of it today here. speaking of, these are in the industrial group. looking for bounces here somewhere in the cyclicals because the economy is strong, it's not really happening. even again today, these are big global industrial nam

bob pisani here with more. [ inaudible ] has until midnight to decide [ inaudible ] what deals [ inaudibleut we'll try to get it fixed for you because there is an sec deadline for crypto that bob will tell us about it. >> holding on to gains here. s&p 4362, did lose ground in materials and industrials in the early part of the session this morning. some of the dow names we're tracking, microsoft closing its acquisition of activision, but the regulatory heat may not be over yet and, of course, boeing, the worst performing name tinhe 30. we'll tell you why after a short break. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to covent

the gains as noted by bob pisani is looking at the haves and have-nots. the biggest holding in the vanguard with apple and amazon and tesla and nvidia with the s&p is up 11% in the last 12 months. let's discuss this with kevin caron with washington crossing advisers and lee baker. gentlemen, great to have you here. good morning. >> good morning. >> good to be here. >> kevin, i'll start off with you. the desisparity with the mega c tech names and the market. are you still putting money to work in q4? >> we haven't. if you look at the chart and you will notice since july, the mega caps and average company have moved sideways together. and year to date, the average company, as you pointed out, is flat to down. this has been a year that has rewarded mega caps and s&p 500 and the way it is weighted and putting more weight on the larger companies which is more concentrated and less diversified. it is more difficult for many managers to keep up with the benchmark. the flip side of it is when you get that concentration, you tend to have more risk. for us, we're g

let's get to bob pisani and talk about this open. >> very optimistic open.we saw last week. rates moving up and the stock market is up as well. 2 to 1 advancing to declining stocks. the sectors, heartening it see move up in the bank stocks after the better than expected bank reports on friday. metals and mining goods, proxy for growth holding up well. not breaking out but holding up. industrials strong. tech is lagging a little bit. tech has held up watch. watch mgk the vanguard mega cap, all the tech names in here, apple, microsoft, amazon, google. 5% from a new 52-week high. now branks doing well on top of that, but there's not new breakouts at all here. we got good reports on friday, but the kbe, the bank etf, that's about where it was back in matrch. no movement there. if you look at the big mini center banks some still reporting, they are just on the edge of 52-week lows. 5% from 52 week lowe, bank of america, morgan stanley, goldman sachs. we'll hear from goldman a little bit later on. we'll hear from the regional banks shortly. we know what's going on

let's get to bob pisani. >> the tenor of the market has changed dramatically since the jobs report fridayng. we were dramatically oversold and now not so oversold. we were talking about pepsi. you heard pepsi a moment ago. coca-cola had a horrible month. it was -- my heavens, it was $60 at the start of september. went straight down. comments from walmart last week about weight loss drugs may be cutting into sales. really was a major problem. of course, you heard pepsi basically said the, that was not a problem for them. coke's been rallying. it was $51 friday morning. it's been rallying ever since then. rallying again on pepsi comments. a lot of stuff has been rallying in the consumer space. target had a horrible month as well. take a look up here. we were straight down a month. we've been up since friday morning. up 4% today. that's a really nice move. that's an unusual move for target. it's a low beta stock. doesn't normally move 4%. elsewhere we talked about the transport stocks getting hit yesterday. they've been getting hit the whole month. alaska airline here, $25. was it last week

let's go post to post with bob pisani for a look at what is moving. good morning. >> good morning. we are off of the lows and fairly quiet trading despite all that terrible news out of israel. remember, the bond markets closed, but bond etfs are still trading, bond futures are still trading. the travel stocks did not need this terrible news out of israel. new lows for southwest, new lows for american, essentially. the cruise lines all down. september was terrible in general. casinos are down. so, obviously, that's an obvious sort of thing that would happen in this situation. it's interesting to watch commodities in general rally at this point. oil was straight down last week. it's back at $86. so, oil services names, exploration of production companies, slb, one of the big oil service names. that's been trending up recently. other commodities are also rallying. copper, interesting, bottomed last week and rallying on friday. up today, freeport, a stand-in for copper and gold, which has also been rallying. it's also doing better today. agricultural commodities are also up today. the

let's get to bob pisani with today's etf edge. >> hello.re launched but their debut under whelming. let's talk with the founder of digital council of professionals. before we get to crypto, you were for many years barron's number one in the financial adviser in the country, ran adelman financial. what to you tell investors who might be rattled by the events in israel? >> our hearts and prayers go out to everybody in israel and this is a horrific situation. the knee-jerk reaction the world is coming to an end, wall street's initial reaction at the opening an a while later everybody realizes the world suspect comes to an end at the moment an that's the attitude we need to remind ourselves. shocks to the system occur from time to time as horrible as they are from a humanity perspective, but it shouldn't alter your investment strategy. if you have enough cash reserves and you have a long-term time horizon an event like this shouldn't cause you to sell in a panic. >> i want to turn to crypto. last week nine etfs launch but the public doesn't see

bob pisani looking at what this could do to buybacks which has been a balloon under stocks for a long time. diana olick on the impact on home builders. rick santelli in chicago. let's start with dominic chu on the dollar. >> the value of the u.s. dollar has risen by roughly 10% over the last three months. and with an estimated 40% of s&p 500 revenues coming from outside the u.s., that rising u.s. dollar could be a potential headwind for those u.s. companies and their profits and revenue reports coming in the coming weeks and months, now, with regard to some of the companies that could face some of the biggest headwinds, we looked at some of the companies that have the highest percentage of their revenues from outside the u.s. borders. now, according to data from s&p capital iq, some of these names could be weighing in on the effects of the stronger u.s. dollar. from a consumer standpoint, estee lauder, 77% of their business outside the u.s. coca-cola, 64% of theirs outside the u.s. and proctor and gamble, about half of their revenue is outside the u.s. now there's also that technology

. >>> a couple hours into trading, let's get post to post with bob pisani. >> we're up but there's beenenormous amount of technical damage it's not that third quarter earnings have been terrible. they haven't been. the market's reaction to them, whether it's the body language of the way the reports are going or the guidance it's provided from the earnings calls, the stocks have generally reacted negatively to the earnings reports. that's really what's going on. so, i'll show you a couple examples the drug companies have been horrible the responses to their earnings reports. johnson & johnson was 156. they reported a couple weeks ago. a new low on friday. we hit 146 we went from 156 to 146. and they're not the only one lilly and pfizer both saw lower earnings estimates merck had their numbers cut, fourth quarter numbers cut as well so, the drug companies have not had a very good response at all to their earnings. here's home depot. again, this happens a while ago. home depot earnings came out a while ago in august. it was 330 or so when the earnings came out. look at 278 right now. hit a

let's go post to post with bob pisani. >> we're at the lows for the day. i want to give you an indication how the jobs report affected things here. the builders went straight down here. dr horton was 106 at the open. swivel around here and take a look here. here's an intraday chart. $106 at the open. this is dr horton. now we're down to 102, 103 or so. this is the impact you have on raising rates. the problem is the narrative is confusing. we're worried about jobs are too strong, the fed is going to keep raising rates. you think economically sensitive groups would be holding up very well but they haven't been. i keep talking about the banks are looking terrible. the regional banks. keycorp is not far from where it was back in the old days back in may or so. it's just above $9. now just back to above $10. that's not looking well. bank of america at new lows. cyclical sectors, economically -- here. freeport was $45 just a little while ago. $45 back in july. now it's $36. the strong dollar is having an impact on anything priced in dollars. but you get the poi

we're bottoming. >> bob pisani. >> the problem -- here's the problem, as tom mcclellan used to say toa signal. we are so -- everybody keeps messaging me, bob, look at the rsi numbers. we're so oversold. we have to buy. you can stay oversold for a long time. it's a condition, not a signal. that's the problem. here we are. how many weeks have we been sitting here oversold at all of these -- historic oversold in utilities and reits. we haven't seen these conditions in reits and utilities, ever, but decades. yet -- >> not going down. >> you could say the same for bonds oversold and guess what, yields keep moving up an that's a problem. bob, thank you. >> condition. not a signal. >> condition, not a signal. great. >> bp. as we head to break, our road map for the rest of the hour. goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius joins us at post nine on a jobs day toway weigh -- weigh in on the strong data. >> exxon, in talks to buy pioneer. we're going to give you details. >> finally, the state of the consumer and the retail stocks that might be on your shopping list as we go into holiday. jpmorg

let's go post to post with bob pisani for a look at what's moving in this mini selloff, bob. >> yeah. here's what's odd. we're flat on the day, but it's 4 to 1 declining to advancing stocks. that's because we're getting movement on plus side from mega cap tech names, which are pushing the s&p up on normally a down day. taiwan semi, had a great day. it was $88 when it opened on monday. nice move up. other big names, software names, service now moving as well. it's had a pretty good week overall. so, some of the other names, apple, for example, microsoft all to the upside right now. the other sector that's doing well this week is energy stocks, so conoco's had a good week. it's up maybe 5%. it was 115 or so on monday, so stocks are doing great here. oil's been up and down a little bit, bouncing around between $81 and $86 this week. the important thing is trend is to the upside. energy is not a big enough sector in the s&p 500 that it matters. what's not doing anything at all is some old-school consumer names. new lows again on just a lot of names. smuckers had a new low. kellanova, hers

let's go post to post with bob pisani. >> this is a great turn-around. we have three problems -- higher yields, tepid reaction to banks earnings and problems with the semis today. i want to show you vmware, which has gotten clobbered. vmw is being acquired by broad com. there's some speculation, perhaps, that china could block this acquisition in retaliation for what the biden administration is dooing. this is all speculation. that's the reason that's down. elsewhere, if you look around, some other tech stocks have turned around. shor service now up nicely. jp had nice comments. that's a nice move for that stock. i've been talking about tepid reaction to the bank earnings. moynihan is in the soft landing camp. good numbers overall from him. we opened at 27 on bank of america. it's been moving up a little bit. this is the first day we're seeing, okay, finally moving up on decent bank reports. the reactions have been very tepid recently. that's another good sign. banks starting to move on the earnings. finally, remember these high yields. take a look here

let's go post to post with bob pisani. >> it's been very choppy trading.ar lot influenced by the earnings caterpillar is pushing around some machinery stocks. cummins makes diesel engines all these companies that are in the industrial engine business on the downside. i keep waiting for a little bounce in the airlines this has been a miserable month here but nothing here delta is down 15%, 16% this month. it's essentially about a point or two, sitting at a new low here most of them had no bounce at all this month despite a terrible month gold had an incredible run on all this geopolitical uncertainty. so, beginning of october we were 1800 or so, we went to 2,000 gold has been looking a little toppy. some are moving down here's a really good example, though, of difficulty of playing commodities. gold goes up, commodity stocks, gold stocks go up a little bit but not as much because stocks behave a little different than commodities. you can have gold, the xhod going up, but gold stocks are still stocks they behave differently than just gold by itself. this is

let's get post to post with bob pisani. >> down 32. just about the lows for the day.nce. dramatically oversold in conditions like reits. no bounce. not heavy volume. no price move up. there's no buying interest. it's a buyer's strike going on. and it's about the yields. if you don't think it's not about the yields, let me show you here. home depot was 328 september 15th, in the middle of the month. i want to show you a chart. thank you for putting this up. a one-month chart of home depot. red means it's down on a daily basis. yields started going up, september 15th. straight down every day. red means down on a daily basis. this is a japanese candlestick chart. that's what they use down here. that's all about yields. boeing's been a major problem for the dow. down almost every single day. it's amazing to watch this. it was 225 a month ago. now it's 186. there's been very significant downward revisions in the earnings estimates. this quarter is going to be a down quarter. it's going to be down about $3. so, that's been the major problem there. that's been a real drag on

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let's get to bob pisani for hugh we're setting up into the close. >> you know, this has been a greateporter. a little rough emotionally september and into october. i want to put that s&p chart up. this is a very unusual day. we have swung more than 90 points from the high to the low. we were 4220 half an hour into the open. 90 points. is that unusual? typical day, the s&p will swing about 45 points. so this is twice as much as normal. so yes, very unusual day. and look, essentially it has been straight up after the first half hour or so. so look at what is weak today. and it has been not really rallying at all. well, rates move up and you see not moving too much real estate. utilities are starting to catch a bit of a bid. that is interesting. staples had been weak though. look at the leadership though. number one, china has been strong. metals and mining stocks have been strong. and industrials have been strong. these are cyclicals. china is associated with came a modities too. tech also a leadership group here. and so it is interesting to look at some of the big names that are in th

let's get post to post with bob pisani. >> good morning, carl. encouraged by the fact the s&p is up 27 points because yields are a little higher. that's good news. but we're now getting earnings, and i'm and i am a little concerned with what i'm seeing here. remember in between the banks and the tech company are the big industrial names. they have been reporting recently not great commentary about the fourth quarter. here is 3m. they might say look at this, 3m is up 5% today. fabulous. they did report a beat but the fourth quarter guidance was well below expectations. why are we moving up here? remember something. this has been a terrible performer all year. this is an 11-year low. $90 in 2012 and trading a the a 10 times forward multiple. those are terrible numbers even for industrials. this stock is extremely washed out at this point. slightly lower estimates for the fourth quarter aren't necessarily going to drop it more because it has already been dropping dramatically. don't kid yourself. the guidance isn't very good. same thing with illinoi

post to post with bob pisani. >> look what we have here, positive.own 40 points after the open on that stronger than expected jobs report. now positive by six points. what moves things? first off, technology, which has been holding up reasonably well. continuing to do well. salesforce, trades down here. of course, that's held up reasonably well, along with microsoft, apple as well. i think the more important thing is outside of what's going on with technology. we have seen cyclical sectors like industrials and material stocks continue to do well. in fact, they were well right at the -- right as that jobs report came out, metals did very well. in fact, oil rallied, copper rallied. caterpillar has been almost straight down for two weeks. it was 280 at the fed meeting around the 20th or so of september. 280. it's gone straight down and now rallying finally, looking for some kind of bottom. another interesting sector you want to look at. where is american express? come over here. the card names have been acting like that recently. the consumer might be f

. >> thanks, bob pisani. >>> let's get a news update with contessa brewer. >> the fbi is seizing $1.5on and 17 names in an investigation into thousands of north korean i.t. workers secretly working for u.s. companies to fund its weapons program. authorities say kim jong-un's regime dispatched i.t. workers to hide their identities and work remotely in the states to earn the money. officials did not name the companies that hired those workers. >>> the biden administration is temporarily lifting some restrictions on venezuela in a sign of support for democracy in the country. the us suspended sanctions on the country's oil, gas and gold sectors are a response to venezuela's government and an opposition group agreeing on conditions for the next presidential election. >>> and new york is suing the winklevoss twins led crypto exchange gemini along with genesis and its parent company, digital group, or dgc. the state claims those firms defrauded investors of more than $1 billion, in part, by failing to manage the risks associated with exposure to sam bankman-fried's bankrupt crypto firm ftx.

if you listen to bob pisani who does a wonderful job of breaking down market views, frank, it is simply muddled. it is very muddled right here. we keep putting forward strong economic numbers. maybe the street is a point or below that, but wherever it is, it's above potential growth. what did we do with retail sales. surprise to the upside. third month in a row. the idea the fourth quarter less than 1% gdp growth now looking a little bit stronger because of how we're ending the quarter. this economy keeps on chugging along. we revised up the amount of savings people had. it seems like people remain employed. by the way, incomes have turned positive, real incomes have turned positive. people seem to have money in their pocket and appear to be spending. i am not hearing, maybe you are, frank, from the executives we have on our air all day long that the consumer is giving it up. in that context it's a muddled outlook in terms of waiting for this economy to slow down which is what fed wants. at the least you should think about rates being high where the fed keeping rates high for an extende

bob pisani.eek high here. >> we're working off oversold conditions, up 3% since the close on thursday. the sector, this is the tilt towards the cyclical end of the market that we were talking about that was evident on friday here. banks up, material stocks up, retail up. the russell 2000 has been out performing the s&p 500 since the close on thursday. there's another very good sign. remember markets were very oversold, particularly small cap stocks and certain other sectors of the market like the cyclical group. it's nice to see the universe of consumer names doing a little bit better today. i think pepsi was a help. they were talking about weight loss drugs not having that much of an impact on their business. that was a relief that got clobbered. coke, kimberly clark, to the upside. the s&p in the last three days, it's important to note friday what looked like headline bad news, market starts down, ends up on the perception, of course, that wage growth is moderating. monday market starts down on

bob pisani is here to talk about the setup for november >> the good thing we're getting out of october horrible, down 3%. that's despite a rally yesterday. it's unusual down three months in a row, since march of 2020, last time we were down three months in a row. the good news going into november the strong period of the year, november, december, the one-two punch we talk about. and the stock market is very oversold the strongest period of the year with an oversold stock market is a positive setup there are negatives, we know about the geopolitical situation that clouds the outlook, very hard to parse that a positive, i see, is yields not getting above 5% on the 10-year that's been noticeable earnings are starting to reflect the uncertainty and the higher yields in the last few weeks the q3 earnings have been strong but q4 estimates are starting to come down. take a look at the setup for november november the best month of the year we see 1.7 put up the first part, 1.7% for november april up 1.5%. strongest month of the year. the 10-year yield trying to get over 5% and can't. and that

bob pisani joins us at post nine looking at the early movers.september living up to its reputation as the worst month of the year. the hope is earnings kind of distract everybody from the rising interest rate situation. we'll see. nice tech is bouncing today. commun communication services. the economically -- sectors still under pressure. the transport terrible performance, 13%, consumer discretionaries 10% off 55 week highs. the russell forget about it, 13, 14% off of their recent highs. nice to see the tech bounce. look at consumer discretionary. it's weak as tesla is weak. decent reports from lennar and auto zone. doing no real bounce here in the economically sensitive sector. we go into the earnings season. here's the good news, the numbers have been going up for the third quarter and the fourth quarter. 15 have beat. that's good news. the estimates are rising modestly here. here's the problem. we have to see what september reporters are doing because that's when the interest rates went up. pepsi starts the september quarter october 10th. no

we talked, bob, about the 10-year, the bob i refer to is this man to my right, bob pisani. make? >> we were doing fine on the verge of going positive and then the jolts report came out and cost 30 points immediately, yields move up and we're captive to yields. look at the sectors here. modest moves up earlier on in consumer staples, industrials, that's gone negative. new lows on reits. we talked about this yesterday. utilities new lows as well. we're basically in runway rate shock situation. that's what's going on here. two problems, number one, the classic yield plays, the reits and utilities, can't compete with 4.7% treasuries. people are selling them. this is secondary problem, the knock-on effects. this is increasing the costs to fund projects everywhere and we think about it, think about capital intensive industries out there. two examples i have been using are clean power and biotech. utilities as well got to build plants so a secondary effect here. let me show you, for example, nextstar energy, the renewable energy company, talked about revising down growth expectati

bob pisani joins us on set to explain. >> there is all sorts of knock-on effects.about how rapidly rising rates are playing havoc with companies that need to borrow money. here's another knock-on effect. higher rates is that buybacks may be reduced because companies may feel the need to hoard cash. corporate america is sitting on 2 1/2 trillion dollars in cash. companies with a large cash hoard are now getting a significant return on the cash just by investing in short-term debt. buybacks were lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. this is largely due to the banking crisis. but now we're waiting for these third quarter numbers to come in. we don't have them in. it will be a few weeks. howard silverback says he expects them to be lower in the third and fourth quarter due to the higher interest rates which may cause companies to pull back to hoard crash. there are a small group of a few dozen companies that are sitting on billions of dollars in cash. this cash is typically invested in short-term debt instruments that used to generate no income. no

as bob pisani said, hard to get some stabilization in the stock market without stabilization in interestates. >> well, meanwhile, we said amex, and the numbers were quite strong. cited them at the top of the broadcast. card member spending up 7% year over year. that's adjusting for foreign exchange. strongest in the u.s. consumer segment, up 9%. that's a sign, isn't it, sara? >> it's a sign of a high end. i mean, amex does cater to the high end. >> they do, they do. >> but they always mention the growth that they see in the younger generations, gen z and millennial customers. steve squary also pointed out that has been very strong growth. they are exposed to restaurants and travel, and that's where americans are spending and global consumers are spending and prioritizing right now. they rown resy. >> it's a great app. >> you can't go anywhere without it. >> steve says our card base is a really small piece of the u.s. economy and one of the reason we have such great metrics is because we have really high-quality card member and at this point in time, they have not been impacted by anythin

. >>> let's get to bob pisani with more on what's moving. index is clawing back.stronger under the surface. >> we're doing well considering we have three problems -- the yield problem, and we have a problem with semiconductors. let me show you what's going on here. nvidia is just getting clobbered in the s&p 500. biggest decliner along with some other big semiconductors. the biden administration announced restricting exports of a.i. chips to china. nvidia's revenue is about 20 trs%, 21% are china. that's an issue, obviously. this seems a bit of an overreaction. this was a lot worse an hour ago. but you can see other semicuttinger chips down. the market cap weighted index, this is the problem with market cap weighted index, nvidia is the biggest one there. it's 20% of the smh, which is the one everyone watches. this is a market cap weighted index. it's pushing down the semiconductor index. apple has been down three days in a row. meta, alphabet has been sideways for the past week or so. that's one reason the market is continuing to hold. let me show you my favorite

let's bring in bob pisani to discuss and see if it has anything to do with the leg lower we took, bobome technological issues in trading some london stock exchange stocks. i walked around on the floor. thequestion is -- british petroleum, it seems to be trading fine. i'll try to get more information. as of now, it's not moving anything here at the new york stock exchange. i think the big story is the interest rate story and where we are with the earnings situation. if you look at the sectors, the good news, banks and semis, which are the main things moving the markets this week, holding up fairly well. reits still down. consumer staples, both of these sectors are essentially 2%, maybe 3% from new 52-week lows. no real bounce at all in that sector here. the key story here is the earnings. very mixed picture. tesla is really affecting the consumer staple -- excuse me, consumer discretionary sectors, but it is well off the recent lows we've seen. union pacific, we've got a freight recession going on here. you heard that from jb hunt yesterday. fortunately, it's bouncing, but it's had a t

bob pisani what's going on? >> the entire stock market is oversold.terest no real attempts to enthusiastically go after stocks. what you want to see is volume up on stocks beaten down, and those stocks moving up. it's binary. it's what would it take to get 10-year yields down. that's the story. we need better economic data. look at the sectors moving. you heard pippa stevens talking about utilities. nothing, no bounce. you think this is dramatically oversold. nothing. reits, three-year low yesterday. three-year low in reits. no buying interest. consumer staples terrible. you heard about conagra, confirmed their numbers but talked about the weaker consumer at the lower end. tech is doing okay. look under the surface, nvidia, and and, down 8, 9% in the last month. still a lot of damage underneath that. take a look at other things the downside leaders here and this is what i was talking about here, no bounce in utilities, energy has gone from leadership group to under performing group in a head-spinning last couple weeks. pepsico. pepsi the first company

. >> bob pisani was talking about the average stock is oversold by 5% >> talking about the katie stocktonany of the s&p were below the majority were below the average. i think she was making a good case for it. >>> global mashrkets prepare fo the fed persistent inflation has investors on edge. let's bring in mark mobius founding partner of mobius capital partners he spans the globe looking for opportunities. you have feeling about what is going on in this country as well, mark we teased it you will talk about india and how bullish you are on india you think, just bringing it home for a second, you think interest rates and the cycle of higher interest rates is peaking in the united states right now? >> i think so. if you look at the inflation situation, we're probably at the peak if you look at the money supply, which is tapering down, but the growth of supply which has come down dramatically means inflation would be easing. of course, the big provision of that is with all that's going on with israel and with ukraine and the pumping up of defense spending in the u.s., that may put a monkey

. >> one discussion out there and i credit bob pisani with this idea with stocks holding up well with the rise in yields. you think what has happened and the competition from the bond market means stocks could be and should be down a lot more. they're not. he credits the earnings with that. underneath the surface, although there is no big marquee blowout earnings numbers, they have been good enough. >> people have more cash on hand. morgan stanley said that is part of the problem. 23% of assets management is cash. >> the part of the problem for morgan stanley said it is potentially buying down the road. people are not over their skis at this point. >> we talked through your read and made it my read, becky. >> go ahead. >>> president biden will differ t deliver the foreign policy speech addressing the attacks against israel. the president returned home from israel last night. let's get the latest with nbc's jay gray from tel aviv. >> reporter: good morning. the response here in tel aviv with the front page of the newspaper here "biden dictates rules of the game." they are taking seriou