more than 90% of analysts don't think the boj ease of gain and most think that happens quickly. my concern for the next few months is that even if the boj does ease, it's likely to be later on than sooner when you have a much more comprehensive picture. i think the risk is that you see some disappointment. building out there in large size gets covered during the second quarter and there's a pullback lower in dollar/yen. >> we get these comments out from li for the economy. how is that feeding? the kiwi is doing fairley well. how is it reflected in the rest of the region? >> likewise, the aussie and the other commodities and the regional currencies in asia. we have to be a little careful in interpreting the remarks. it's not really clear to me whether we're talking about new easing or some of the infrastructure measures already in the pipeline. either way, near term has supported the local currencies and the commodities. i feel a lot more confident in the aussie than the other currencies. we think the domestic story is also changing. next week, there will be a material shift in t

do expect more action from the boj there after?k the market little confused about the bank of japan. the original thought at the end of 2013 was that they would ease around april. it is quite clear if you look at the recent statements from the bank of japan, that is not their intention. markets are split between july or september? data has beencent bumpy and not necessarily a wholehearted success. one of the reasons why the yen in thee relatively well short term, it'll be sticky against the dollar. people are little bit disappointed about abenomics. that'll be something that continues through june, i think. >> what is the point of debt is shinzo abe defined, the third arrow? some concrete details? >> that comes through in june it self. it will not necessarily be wholehearted in our praise when it comes to that point. will be a little disappointed. the spotlight goes back to boj. we think they would ease again and july. that will reconsider the yen. in the next couple of months, choppy. asked by economist bloomberg said they think q

the boj's decision did not provide much trading direction for tokyo's shares.kei average gaining today, 0.7%, 15,224. monday's decline encouraged investors to buy back some shares, and market players got a bit of relief from the yen's continued weakness. major bourses around the asia pacific region also with a rebound from the previous day's weak performance. the shanghai composite rose about a tenth of a percent finishing at 2,001. investors bought bargain shares after the index tumbled the most in more than eight months on monday. still, many stayed cautious due to concerns about china's economic slowdown. in sydney the s&p asx 200 index inched up to 5,413. some participants bought stocks that are less sensitive to economic growth like telecom shares. but many didn't trade aggressively after a private survey of australia's business conditions showed a sharp fall in february. >>> well, many people here in japan are getting ready to tighten their purse strings, it seems. more than half surveyed by nhk said they'll cut back on shopping after the consumption tax

boj officials said japanese households continued to hold more than 53% of their assets in cash and bankeposits, though. the ratio of that did fall nearly 2 percentage points. officials noted that overall, people still opted for safer assets like deposits. >>> some of japan's top executives from the nuclear industry are being brought together to tackle the crisis at the fukushima daiichi nuclear plant. officials at tokyo electric power company are drawing on the managerial expertise at the country's major manufacturers to help oversee the decommissioning of the crippled reactors. the new body will have one executive from hitch atty ge nuclear energy, toshiba and mitsubishi heavy industries and will serve as senior officers. in the past these firms have helped tepco with separate tasks such as removing spent fuel and developing robots to probe highly radioactive areas. from next month, though, the executives will be involved in the entire decommissioning process. they'll provide their know-how to help solve problems related to containing polluted water and cooling nuclear fuel. tepco and

plus deposits held by commercial banks at the boj. the officials say the monetary base will likely exceed around 2.7 trillion dollars by the end of this year. they're hoping this will encourage firms to take out more loans and expand their business operations. >>> microsoft co-founder bill gates has regained the title of the richest man in the world for the first time in five years. that's according to "forbes" magazine. "forbes" says gates topped its annual list with a total net worth of $76 billion. mexican telecom entrepreneur carlos slim helu came in second. he had led the list for the past four years. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg surged to 21st place from 66th last year. and japan's softbank ceo was ranked 42nd. "forbes" says the united states had the largest number of billionaires followed by china and russia. the magazine also said 172 of the billionaires were women, up 34 from the previous year. >>> and that's all for now in business. i'll leave you with the latest market figures. >>> japan's foreign minister fumio kishida say

kong where to hong you are watching the boj. >> good morning. that is right. we have central banks and the two largest economies in japan. the boj is steady as she goes. they are looking at getting rid of something old. interest rate reform. i will be back with details later. what's the view for the update. watchingata and we are mark carney posta testimony. testimony.ney's >> is it a bubble? inthe london property market a bubble? a big debate there. the futures were higher and took a little turn in the last half an hour. this is the open. 100.ave it up 2/10 of it was lower for the past two days. we are waiting for the price on the dax. it is better than expected. the exports are higher and the importance have more signs of that. they are over four percent. ring this up. it is pretty flat right now. one dollar buys you ¥103. in april, we will get a sales tax hike. does the bank of japan need to step in and do more? they started the policy 12 months ago. check out copper. look at this. the biggest two-day slump in 24 months. lower concern over china. we are get

boj is hesitating. no structural reforms a company that. >> and that is where you get the next light. -- next lag. and how reforms will be implemented. it is not china. it is not national. it is local. it is interesting that everyone talks about the sales tax rise in april. i think it is more or less priced in. it is not as big an event that people are making out. >> in terms of people's expectations, maybe the answer is yes. so you have to separate the markets from reality. i think it's priced in. whatuestion then becomes will make you invest more in japan. and what will drive real wages? so far, real wages are falling. they are not rising. without investment and without real wages -- expenditures are not increasing as they should. >> at least what he is doing is moving forward. if that is not going to work, then there is a lovely no proper exit for japan. but at the very least, japan can solve the fault. distribution, inequality and japan is relatively low. so if you were to default, citizenry will su

monetary base includes the amount of currency in circulation plus deposits held by commercial banks at the boj. the officials say the monetary base will likely exceed around two point seven trillion dollars by the end of this year. they are hoping that this will encourage firms to take out more loans and expand their business operations. the amara has hosted a summit of nations around the bay of them gal the groups planning a massive free trade zone that would cover one point six billion people to look on sunderland bangkok is following the story. uta is a key in and out the seven nat asia is non stop in this economy has seen her and stagnate. i had to align itself with foss developing countries in southeast asia and helped send things around. the group is only now i am dangling isn't a full multi sectoral technical and economic cooperation on this tack many states agreed to set up a pen and half court system there's an old friend of the sets and tie in india the insect was launched in nineteen ninety seven bytes high as india bangladesh and sri lanka mnemonic all and no time showing me tap in

what this shows use the -- that the boj will have to do more. what this shows you is, at the same time that the boj decreased its bond buying program, now we are south at about 6 trillion since the start of january. so what is the thinking here? much thea limit to how central bank can influence the bond markets given the current policies. in other words, they need to do more. how do you make money? or how do you avoid losing too much money? craig when coupled and investments has this note last week. they say by the south korean won . yen, ae the japanese further slide in the japanese yen. let me leave you with this. there we go. that is what you have for the japanese yen and the malaysian currency. aberration,of an obviously. then again, something to look out for definitely. that was her global outlook for today. pmi foracturing february with estimates of 40.5, a slight -- 48.5, a slight contraction. above 50 is clearly expanding. thank you for joining us this morning. 48.5, 50.2 of the weekend, the chinese economy is sputtering, as it were. not

the boj chief has been adamant that next month's sales tax hike will not derail japan's economic upswing. >>> now, financial times reports china's central bank is holding emergency talks over whether to bail out the property headline developer facing bankruptcy. eunice will be joining us later today to talk about this. she's spoken to the pboc and they deny any involvement in this. china is an interesting one here. i'm always interested to ask questions given it's the most opaque central bank in the world. what do you make of the headlines? >> the chinese have a policy of trying to raise credit in which we get a credit bubble deflation. other central banks haven't been successful in that historically. they want to let some companies fail, but if you're looking dangerous, you have to dial a few ads. they're letting the market go a little bit and pulling it back in. i would be surprised if they came in with a bailout here just because that appears to be canceled to that policy. they have credit conditions amid less credit growth overall through the economy because it's dangerous. and that'

i'm sure there will be more easing by the boj. the question is not whether, but when. i think it's going to be in july when they see the feks of the consumption tax. the ecb is still on hold. they should have another rate cut, credit easing possibly, even quantitative easing. they will eventually get there but later than the markets are expect pentagon. >> mario draghi keeps saying we'll do whatever it takes but he hasn't done much. >> talk is cheap. but they cannot keep on saying we'll do something when inflation is lower and growth is uneven but they will be slow because they have a single mandate on price stability. >> what does that imply for the u.s. stock market? the last time you were on you had said you were much more bullish on the prospect for equities. where do you stand on that issue today, especially if there is the case that even if the fed is tapering, the bank of japan and the european central bank could be more stimulative? >> u.s. economic growth will recover even if below consensus. i think only 2.6% this year. the fed will exit only slowly. i think

probably very little the boj could do. >> would pumping more liquidity into the country help if and whenneeds to, possibly after the implication -- implementation of the higher sales tax? >> i think they have to do something already. it is getting a lot of pressure from the government. come the day when the markets are caught the wrong way around in that trade, then i think it would fall dramatically. >> quick comment back to the ukraine. the ruble has reacted in a way many would have rejected, down over 10% for the year. does it bear the brunt of ruble?an sentiment, the does it continue to do so? >> absolutely. i am talking generally about emerging-market major currencies and if the crisis escalates, we can expect more of that area >> thank you for joining us. out of telecom italia, suspending their common shares. this is the first time since the company was by the ties. they are going to stop paying a dividend. this had been expected by a number of analysts. a net loss in 2013 bigger than estimated by analysts. 674 million euros is the loss. italia later in the program. >> coming up, a

long-term target of two percent and in japan the sales tax increases being inflation but below the bojation they will have to add more stimulus. >> not just a problem overseas. here in the u.s., the chicago fed president said we are having a hard time trying to get inflation above two percent. why are you worried? what's we are not concerned -- >> we are not concerned about two percent inflation. we are concerned about much more dramatic inflation that is from so going to result many regions and countries printing money now. not just the united states and and webut in euro land are seeing it in japan. history tells us, you just can't keep running the printing presses without tipping into something that could be much worse. signs, veryg the early signs of inflation turning in the commodities area right now out of the 20 commodities we monitor. still negative on balance but only by a little bit. look at what happened in terms of food prices, look at what happens when you go to the , and the fact that nobody is concerned about it makes me concerned. >> takes you worried that everyone seem

we also look for evaluation of the boj. >> bnp has had a more cautious year.u reaffirm for the developed world a cautious view on economic growth? >> without a doubt. until get any kind of signs inflation is picking up -- no sign of wage inflation in the u.s. at all. until you get that type of wage inflation, you will see consumption muted and growth muted. >> there is one of the catch is you see version is -- versus the optimist. continueitsberger will with us through this hour. >> coming up, our single best chart. downhill skiing goes downhill. you sell the olympics, right? >> did you write that? >> i came up with that one. >> there is cory johnson. >> there i am. there i am. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." cory johnson and scarlet fu. i am tom keene. new delay for the affordable health care act, obamacare, offering health plans that don't meet the requirements the affordable care act for another two years. the change will avoid another wave of policy cancellations at least for two years. china says it will d

and i think the impact would be negative wall the boj having to do a great deal to try to go back. >>ction was up at the beginning of the year, corporate profits and expectations are rising. these are all things you would expect to see if these policies are taking root, but when will we know for sure? >> well, economics is working, there's no question that it is. we have seen the headline inflation number continue normally gdp is growing. and with normal gdp growing,ment this will consider a reduction to the deficit, which is really the main goal of this whole exercise. so i think economics and the height in the consumption tax comes too soon after the start of economics. and given that it is such a large hike and the offsetting measures are only helping to eliminate a degree, i think the impact on the company will be on the negative. at least in the current quarter coming u coming. and we'll take further aggressive measures over the yen in the next two to three months. >> the concern will be, as you say, as real wages are not really going up to cope with a rising inflation. that alon

>> it's all a question of how quickly the boj responds with the easing and how effective the fiscal stimulus is at offsetting the falling consumption. >> all right. #goodjob. >> thank you. >> thanks for joining us. heading toward the close. i wouldn't call it a rally, but we're back in positive territory for the dow. up 4 1/2 points. the nasdaq is coming back, still minus signs right now. >> and after the close, microsoft's new ceo unveiling windows office for the ipad. will it be a big boost for the company's bottom line? if so, why is microsoft stock down today? stay with us. that story when we come right back. back. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. once wrote somethi

phil was just talking about this, the boj gdoj getting invo. >> here is why jim appleton, the presidentealership. i'm going to give it to you now as relates to this recall. it says they should have never been allowed to sell cars in the first place in new jersey without a franchise, without a dealership, because there's a public benefit to promoting a separation between automakers and auto sellers. because if there's a warranty issue or a recall notice, dealers see it as a chance to help their customers where is the manufacturer sees it as an expense just to get around. bingo. in your face. in your face. in your face. i got you. >> no. this is the first time you ever ever argued in favor of government regulation. >> i like these guys to have jobs in the dealers. and he says the jig is up. now you know, these people, a lot have their dealers who represent -- >> they love when there's a recall because they get to charge -- did it work in this gm situation? >> they're representing their customers from nasty manufacturers that don't do recalls. you see how long it took gm. the dealers would