don't hold your breath for further boj easing. only if we get a significant downward surprise of the data, which suggests that gdp growth will be very modest indeed, and also it's having an impact on inflation, should we expect the boj to move. i don't think they're going to move again for a long time. we haven't seen them change policy for to consecutive meetings. i don't think they'll change policy for another 20 consecutive meetings. probably more than that. inflation is positive. that's a good step. it's likely to level off for some time. i don't even think it's necessarily going to push much higher next year. won't fall back, but they're just going to keep on plowing away with quantitative easing with buying assets of the current rate on and on. throughout next year, probably into 2016 as well. >> don't hold your breath then. thank you so much for that. chris scicluna. >>> caviar, truffles and champag champagne. parents had a tough time investigating what's keeping the top end restaurant scene in london booming. we'll find ou

. >> the boj quantitative easing policy is a huge mistake.pan needs is negative interest rates. they should have done it 20 years ago, but it is too late, because it is a totally opposite policy as boj has taken. of negativetion interest rates, i think, is a very wise and significant move. tour of latin his america, and now visiting 47 nations since he took office, and he is soon going to be japan's most traveled leader. has been taking a look at that, keeping track of all of the travels, and exhausting job. >> he has a lot of business anything,nd more than he is saying that japan is back, which is basely what he said this year. mexico and others. also the u.k., and he has basically stands aglow in the last two years or so. >> i recognize that. >> yes. and this is both economically to counterally china' is rise in the world. militarily and also economically dominating the world, especially region, and this is one of the world's biggest economies, and people should not forget that they do more deals, still latin it is america's dealer. they ar

now the russians need to deliver. >>> and coming up next, could more easing by the boj be on the table as data out of japan continue to knowledge? we'll have your answer right after the short break. where the reward was that what if tnew car smelledit card and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com >>> welcome back to the show. the sales tax hike hit spending in japan. the number was marginally better than the consensus forecast of 7.1%, but the contraction is the biggest since the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami. now joined by thomas burns from moody's sovereign risk group. and andrew goldberg is still with us. thomas, let me kick things off with you. i want to talk about japan for a little bit here in terms of the sales tax increase. if you st

obviously, this boils down to what the fed and the boj will do.that diversions will happen. right now, it is looking like we may not need to wait a little longer. there you go with an amusing take of where we are as follows -- as far as policy goes. futures pricing in 55% chance that we'll see a rate hike by this -- 65% chance that we see a rate hike by next summer. 19 out of 34 economists think the boj will go the other way, expanding stimulus as early as march 2015, with another six of those thinking it may come in april or later. that is the difference in policy direction. i guess a widening of the trading band for the dollar yen. i am david here in hong kong. in on theake a check markets and see how their trading this monday. on the regional benchmark, the msci asia, we are coming off our first weekly drop in three weeks. it looks like some downward pressure on the nikkei 225. issouth korea, the kospi pretty much flat. declinesre significant , 4/10 of 1% in that new zealand exchange 50. as that newrop zealand trading day continues. let's talk

with the boj keeping policy on hold. they did comment.different about the boj this time around, they were expected to do nothing anyway. they had a rest. -- they had record stimulus as is. did did, and -- they comment on the wiki data we have seen. the productivity numbers. we look at what they have said. they are striking a note of caution. inflationcommented on which they have said appears to be rising as a whole. you look at the data we got this morning. the current account deficit. ¥400 billion. those close to -- reflective of how vulnerable the job -- recovery is in japan. you have the downward pressure on the yen. it is about save haven, which is why we are seeing the yen strength and purity story has been the markets in japan getting hammered down 3%. back to you. ingles inenlace -- hong kong. >> we speak to an investor to help us decide where the quality lies in equities. back after the break. ♪ >> welcome back. i am manus cranny. time for company moves -- news. asian airlines will be delisted. first agewill be the in restructurin

boj, so see it with the officials said to cut the forecast for 2014.hing for the rest of the day, we are joined by hans nichols. foreign ministers are gathering to tackle the crisis in ukraine and iraq. ministers have arrived. they are set to meet shortly. >> they will go into the first round of meetings. they will move to ukraine. it is a different foreign minister -- they have given us different indications on that. a lot are talking to their own press, giving comments in their native languages. the senses we are moving towards and militarykurds assistance for the kurdish people. the french have been there for some time. the british as well. the germans are inching in that direction. gaza, they also expect to come to conclusion. that will happen at about six hours. behind me, about six hours of diplomacy. wrangling to see how strong the statements and the language will be. >> we could see some developments around who is going iraqpply the kurds on the situation. what about ukraine? we are not talking about new sanctions are we? no. they have been cle

. >> we are waiting for the boj to come out with minutes from its last meeting.o you think there will be murmuring of potential stimulus at some point, especially with gdp for the second quarter in japan expected to be quite dire and in contraction, in fact? looks like they will have to pump up some more money for the system. buy a lot of -- there is talk about the tension fun being able to buy japanese equities and increasing their allocation in japanese equities. it looks like the boj will continue to pump more money into the system to prop up asset prices. the nikkei is down about 10% year to date so far. last year, it was up around 50%. we expected to continue, especially given the gdp numbers you are talking about. but it is a short-term thing. boj not see any reason why does not continue to pump money. jgb's are at 50 basis points. falling everywhere because of central bank buying. >> do you think that china could also pump some money into its economy? what is a good strategy for investors? >> i think as long as central banks are easing and as long as centr

the boj's most recent policy meeting was last week. >> some communities are having trouble bringing out the welcome mat. >> the 130,000 ton voyager of the seas entered naha. the gigantic cruise ship is over 300 meters long. large cruise liners like this one behind me are becoming a more common site here. city authorities are hoping the increasing number of tourists will help to boost the low dal economy. >> 88 large foreign cruise ships carrying some 130,000 passengers are scheduled to call naha this year. that's more than three times as many as a decade ago. naha is now the third busiest cruise destination in japan. >> it looks so beautiful on tv. i wanted to see it for myself. >> i'm going sightseeing with my frebds. and shopping. >> for many years, large cruise ships had to use a wharf designed for cargo vessels. but that wharf is a long way from the city center. in 2006, the central government launched a $166 million project. the terminal opened in april this year. passengers can now walk to the center of town. welcoming foreign visitors is a community-wide effort. local authorities

boj governor haruhiko kuroda made a comment on the sharp decline of tokyo stock prices. he said geopolitical risks relating to developments in iraq and ukraine seem to be increasing somewhat. but for now, he said he does not think there are any major changes to the current global economic outlook. >> argentina has now taken a move in the long-running debt dispute with its creditors following its default last week. the country has filed a lawsuit against the u.s., with the world court in the hague, this is over an alleged violation of argentina's sovereignty. argentina asked the international court of justice on thursday to act. but court officials say no action will be taken in the proceedings, unless the u.s. accept the court's jurisdiction. the court says argentina must pay off a group of u.s. hedge funds demanding full repayment. argentine government officials and u.s. hedge fund operators failed to reach a deal by the july 30th deadline. >>> a last-minute change before arriving in hawaii, but residents still need to be on alert. jonathan oh has more. >> azel said sus

he added that the boj will keep an eye on future developments. he said this is because the decline in real income due to the higher tax may affect personal spend let's check the markets now. sharp losses in the global stock markets prompting investors to sell shares across asia today. major indices as you can see all finishing lower. market players taking the chance to lock in some profits from recent rallies that we've seen. sydney's key index slid the most in four and a half months in fact today gave up nearly 1.4%, finishing at 5556, a level not seen in more than a week. it pulled back from a six-year closing high that it hit on thursday. investors sold a broad range of shares, such as banks and resource companies. here in tokyo, the nikkei average seeing declines, fell more than .6%, 15, 523. still, some investors picked up stocks on solid earnings from firms like sony. in china, the shanghai composite seeing declines of .75%, 2,185. investors taking a breather after the index's recent strong rise, some encouraged by manufacturing data, the o

. -- this will prompt pressure on the boj to do more. the external situation, japan could face issues of the had as well. barring the structural reforms, you need to have a stronger dollar-yen. january.d this back in the bank of japan would do more in june. what pushes them over the line this time? >> for the most part, inflation has not fallen to levels to justify that. the markets did not have the right thresholds in mind. their targets are completely different. >> one final question, mario draghi will be asked about russia. if gas prices go up, how does the ecb respond? >> any inflation is good inflation. when central banks -- this gives them -- they will try to look past that. >> there we go. thank you very much for joining us this morning. boris johnson prepares to draw a line in the sand. immediately following the speech, he will be a guest on "the pulse." ♪ >> welcome back. a big corporate this morning. walgreens is pushing across the pond. they are said to be near a deal to buy alliance boots. it will not move its headquarters to

exceededk the decline expectations from the boj but it enforces the idea that they will be in october and deliver stimulus. what catches them mostly is the market does not believe they inl get inflation back 2011 at eight stable level. they declined and that is sub-optimal. >> when you look at japan, weak growth to one side. when you look at the u.s., growth next year -- you have written about this extensively -- no one has changed their course. there is a consensus everything will be ok despite everyone revising their course for this year. why? >> we have had 100 basis down 2014 and noon to change in 2015, which is 3% consensus estimate. what is more interesting within that statistic is that the dispersion among economists is thin among that number. everyone is saying the same thing. why is that? it partly has to do with the fed. it must be the case. conversations, people believe the fed is over weighing its role to get full employment. maybe they are willing to would tolerate more inflation to get the economy full of jobs. that is one thing. i think structurally there is the idea th

. >> can we bank on the boj to support the economy? >> well, the boj has a dilemma here and that is that it does what it needs to do in order to achieve 2% inflation on a sustained basis. it has to devalue a whole heap more and that is the consensus about what will happen and that has its reality. there's a better chance of that happening than not. but you need to remember that if the poj does do this and does create 2% inflation, then at that stage, they presume to stop their qe because they've achieved their goal. and at that stage, the japanese government bonds move from 0.5% yield to about 3% or 4% yield, 2% yield, and since government debt is 140% of gdp, they could be plunging straight into a crisis. so the japanese -- the poor old bank of japan is left picking up the pieces from the mess that is abe-nomics. >> charles, thank you so much for that. i did realize that you had a pretty critical view, but i didn't think it was going to be this negative, but refreshing. charles, thank you so much for that, charles dumas from lombard s

the police blocked off the street on boj sides. there is a few block area where they are doing this lap of protesting. they were out there, chanting, there were all kind of people that i saw out there. i saw men, i saw women, i saw children. i saw black people, white people, asian people. all kind of people out there protesting. really peacefully. the vast majority of people. that is who was out here. who was out here even into the night. we got way deeper into the evening tonight. without anything happening. so for the vast majority of the hours, i would say that it did go along as most people wanted it. there were people from the community, who were really working to make sure that these protests, that their voices were heard. but that it didn't escalate into anything more. i also saw police officers trying to contain officers to make sure that it wasn't an overreaction. some people saying that as soon as the officers put on their helmets and put up their shields, that that made things feel more tense. and that did not make thing

heading one way and the ecb and the boj and another, this dislocation might become more apparent. how do we best position ourselves for that? >> i think druggie had a showingl neutral chart the divergence powers of real interest rates. -- means isads currencies should play a rebalancing role in the dollar should strengthen versus the euro, particularly if the monetary stance to verges, and i also think all efforts linked to the ecb that are in some ways under their umbrella, they have a strong effect from liquidity and possibly from additional asset purchases down the line. long-standing core position should be in periphery assets, bonds or stocks. those things should play a positive role in a portfolio. >> good to chat to you. thanks for joining us. coming up, the battle for the brazilian broadband unit and billions of dollars in state -- at state. we take a look at the bidding wars. >> welcome back. ikea has grown to become the world's largest furniture chain. now it is trying something different in germany. inner-city stores. same, butn is the there is something radically diffe

this will always on inflation will think the boj about a more aggressive plan for qe. >> we will leave it there. thank you for that, daniel. coming up next, best friend and best employee. the financial argument in favor of farm dogs. >> checking stories. northern california has been hit by the strongest earthquake in 25 years. earthquake hit southwest of sacramento. reports say that 100 20 were injured and three were injured critically. train services have been suspended until the tracks and bridges can be inspected. in number of people killed landslides has risen to 50. days of torrential rain. 217 meters fell on the area and more is forecasted. the self-defense force has been drafted to help with the search and rescue efforts and the prime minister is overseeing the operation. value to assigns everything they can. a new study is valuing working dogs. paul allen explains. is a fixture of farm life and it can heard sheep and cow. it is a skill that farmers find valuable. dogs bring the cows. >> a study has put a price on this work. tlay ofypical ou $7,500, the value is tackle it at $37

we think the boj is overconfident.not going to meet their inflation goals without stimulus. we think that will eventually come through, however, without that, as the yield stick hire, particularly if we get some easing on the geopolitical front, that is good for the valuation. progress,e is making albeit extremely slowly. we are seeing a lot more invested interests to buy into japanese equities, which will be another catalyst, so we do still like the japan market to move higher, but you are right, you have to buy it on a hedge basis if you are an overseas investor. ina look at what is going on hong kong, some of these chinese equities also. a are finally seeing turnaround take place, a turnaround in sentiment, and investors look at the chinese h shares and a shares. >> it does look like it. again, from a nickel perspective, it looks like they are taking a break to the north. it is now a very bullish sign. and sentiment is looking better. from a fundamental point of view, it is still checkered, but we do still think tha

is the -- if it comes it will be in october where the boj reviews this again. 0.4% is the estimate forll-year forecast less than the 1 or sent median forecast of board members. it comes as they face the deepest contraction in three years. we are back where we started. three years ago we had the nuclear crisis, the tsunami and then japan's economy really has not recovered significantly from that if you look at these latest numbers and the fact that they may cut the forecast. when itn't be a shock eventually comes through. zeb eckert on the bank of japan growth rates. thehe first weekend of premier league season is about a day away. it's all about winning the trophy but for the owners and broadcasters, it means rising ticket prices and higher broadcast rights. joining me now to put the world of premier league football to books, the author of the "turning my back on the premier league" lee price and alex. this, essentially, is about cost inflation. alex, from a writer's perspective, where are we from where we were 23 years ago when the premier league kicked off? was worth 300 million poun

we've got figures from the fed, the ecb, the bank of england, the boj, all speaking today from the jackson hole symposium. >> we need 20 check in on the european markets. we're flat as a danish pancake. i call this a flat start to the session, as anticipated. as i said, we have no economic data out. we're digesting the data we saw in here yesterday, the weaker pmis, the weaker retail data, the chinese manufacturing data this week. what goes up must come down, as well. i would call these markets flattish. looking at the debt markets, what's going on in bonds, buying across the board, pushing yields a little bit south. things are below 1% now again in the ten-year bund. that might be something you want to take note of once again. currency markets with the euro/dollar, 1.3287. so pretty much the same story as what we were looking at. yesterday. what happened in asia and what's happening now? sri jegarajah is in singapore rapping everything up for us. hi, skree. >> hi, louisa. we are wrapping up the trading day and the trading week here in this region. we did get some support from wall street,

what do you think is the risk of the policy in the states by the fed or maybe even the ecb, by the boj, by central banks around the world, earlier than expected tightening? >> central banks have been very clear. they are watching the data carefully and we'll respond to two of them. i think on the policy side, communication will come with that. markets are in turn listening to communication. so chances are that this process happens smoothly. >> that's the hope. communication, transparency hasn't always been ideal, has it? thank you so much for that. >>> let's change paths. tributes are pouring in from around the world today after friends, family and friends learned of the death of comedian and actor robin williams monday of an apparent suicide at the age of 63. i want to get out to nbc's jennifer buerkland in california with more. jennifer, describe some of the scenes that you're seeing there. >> we're hearing in tiburon right in front of robin williams' home, neighbors have laid flowers in front of the gate where he lived with his wife. his wife releasing a statement that says in part

next week, the economic data comes back full force and ecb, boe, boj meetings and the jobs report. >>ack. how about say too much data gives people a reason to wait longer? back in the old days, no one really -- i don't even know what the old day. be prepared for that follow-up question. nobody waited for these numbers. people traded. stock to buy. you bought stock. stock to sell, you sold stock. >> fed deictated by what's happening -- >> make the case only waiting for the fed. everything else, shut up, not trade, wait for the fed. i think the original point was, geopolitical has the ability to take the steam out of the bulls. but i think unfortunately, they're looking for a catalyst and maybe there is a war. maybe there is another war. i think that's the only thing that would take a lot of this momentum out of the markets. >> september is usually fraught a little bit, right? we're going to get an apple phone. we're going to get an alibaba ipo, in addition to the data sara mentions. i mean, are you feeling good about the month, at least? the month to come? >> i think more nervous about

the fact that easy money may be here to stay but it's going to transfer over from ecb and possibly to bojg their qe which means ultimately that i think it's pretty positive for u.s. assets and positive for u.s. dollars it means the show continues to go. >> it does, but it is so interesting because we're talking -- >> it could go on for years. >> just makes you think you're building up some type of imbalance that could have a bad ending. >> maybe. you know it all depends obviously if it turns into a massive financial bubble and we just go to a -- >> why don't we just have an act of congress to just set interest rates permanent at zero. it would be good for everybody. think mortgages would be zero. i mean -- >> you know -- >> aren't there some issues about these things should be set by market rates so that capital is allocated in the most effective way so that it doesn't come back to, you know -- >> that's a supply-side argument. but the argument on the opposite side says that basically a problem we have is not supply side, it's demand side. we don't have enough income on demand side to sti