boj officials released the report every three months. for the next survey economists at all but one of the eight major research institutes are predicting optimism in the manufacturing industry. six of the institutes expect to see a better mood in the nonmanufacturing sector. seven of them also predict improvement among smaller manufacturers. the economists say japan's exporters are happy to see the yen's value levels off at lower levels against the dollar. they also say the plunge in crude oil prices has helped to cut costs for manufacturing and transportation. >>> all right let's get a check of the markets now. tokyo stocks continued their upward momentum following strong gains that we saw on wall street on friday. the benchmark nikkei climbing today just about 1% 19,754. the highest level that we've seen in just about 15 years. analysts say investors bought shares on expectations of improved corporate earnings. well investors in shanghai remained bullish today. the winning strike of the composite index continuing into a ninth straight

what is the pressure on the boj tomorrow?ell, i think at the moment, we still have a fairly significant inflationary impulse traversing the globe. the impact of falling oil prices still seems to be some headwinds for oil there generally. that has brought down inflation pressure in japan. made it rather difficult for the bank of japan to meet that 2% target. at the same time, although the data from the fourth quarter gdp that japan was a little below analyst expectations, it was starting to move in the right direction. i would notthat expect the boj to want to change course at this time when they are seeing momentum picked up in earnings data and just the beginnings of a move upwards in macro data. will they potentially extend the program at some future point? that is very much the debate amongst analyst at the moment. right now, we expect a continuation of policy. angie: of course, this same week, we have it janet yellen and the rest of the fed policymakers anticipated to drop the word "patient." to lookorcing investors for y

tokyo investors recorded the boj's weak outlook on the inflation rate as positive. they think that this might actually lead to further monetary easing. tokyo stocks rose to a fresh 15-year high. the benchmark nikkei closed up nearly 1% 19,437. the news of wage hikes at many carmakers also gave a bit of a boost to sentiment. the shanghai composite extending gains. it rose more than 1.5% 3,502 at the close. investors have been buying shares on premier li keqiang's comments. over the weekend he said china has plenty of options for boosting growth. seoul's kospi jumped more than 2%. it closed at a six-month high. investors bought major exporters like samsung and hyundai on the weaker currency. the other markets in the region ended mostly higher. jakarta closed just a touch up under 0.1% there. that's after indonesia's central bank maintained its key interest rate at 7.5%. australian shares up nearly 0.8%. hong kong finished the day lower 0.2%. >>> well experts say european companies are looking to china now as the place to put their money. and this as prospects at home

there is less pressure on the boj to provide further amulets. for those -- further stimulus. the ecb is already factored in, chris turner, head of ing group, which is the most accurate forecaster in the 2014 bloomberg rankings -- he has this to say. although some of the market say it is riced in, what i believe is the current the does need to fall. -- it is priced in, what i believe is the currency does need to fall. the boj could surprise the markets by beating up its own stimulus, even though governor kuroda did say he sees no immediate need to add to the program. he has says -- said he is ready to raise that if necessary. the median forecast is for the euro to rise to ¥1.36. among the most bullishb,ba -- among the most bullish, bba. the euro has a long way to go to underline some of its rights versus the yen in the last rears. is draghi outflanking kuroda? >> credit suisse really saving its profits. this is just is after the justice department fined morgan stanley. switzerland's second-biggest enck reduced its fourth-quarter profit to 25%. berkshire hathaway said fourth-qu

economists surveyed say they we can 142 how the boj target.g into early trading right now up by nearly 3% after goldman sachs -- gross margin expansions as well. finally, secondary offer putting pressure on mastercard come off by 1.3% in the market share more supply stock out there. the eps of existing shift mastercard reportedly to sell 12.8 million shares and arranged to 8795. >> thank you. we will take most attention to this morning's is open after yesterday's big drop. almost every sector for massive chains like home depot and target to entertainment giants like sony providing great entertainment. how do americans and companies protect themselves from these incredibly costly attacks that would diminish the company's credibility even if they boost the popularity of a comedy movie? a special agent, the new york fbi come argues we need an entirely new strategy. he is in part of our one-hour special panel of guests beginning at 11:00 a.m. eastern on cyber ready. he covers the cyber industry and joins us ahead of market makers where he will be

the boj's measure that stripped out sales tecax showed inflation at zero. the governor said any drop will be temporary and will not stop the bank from reaching its 2% inflation target. the chairman of the italian tire company per really has called on my narrative shareholders to accept the takeover --. >> this project -- [indiscernible] this project will be set aside. i don't see third parties entering. anna: rio tinto's chief executive has warned prices -- the roles would go in several operations including iron alan moon them -- aluminum, and hr. manus: alastair campbell has been on last night. caroline manus cranny. a good night -- dire for dave. caroline: coming up, zero inflation. japanese inflation grinds to a holt. but what does it mean for the country's recovery from the recession? ♪ manus: welcome back to "countdown." breaking news from chevron. we will bring you those updates. selling down is consistent with the vestment goals. they remain consistent with moving australia look to find natural gas projects to startups. caroline looked back to japan.

we've got the boj and the ecb seriously buying bonds in the market. that's keeping longer dated yields the press. this is a low interest rate cycle. we do believe this will be a longer and flatter business cycle. let's not forget, it was a very deep recession. the recovery trajectory is probably going to be longer and flatter. to the still midcycle, probably not unreasonable. anna: in terms of investing, does it make sense to go after businesses that are domestically focused? john: yes. you've got to remember that the u.s. economy, only 13% of it is exports. the vast majority is the consumer. we've got the boost coming through from weaker oil prices. we are beginning to see signs of domestic confidence pick up. the u.s. is on a solid recovery track. we've got no reason not to think that america will not continue to do well over this year. where is it going to do well? probably the consumer. dollar strength is a headwind for exporting companies which make up a greater portion of the s&p than they do of the broader economy. domestic u.s. is definitely a

the boj has says that any drop in prices will be temporary and will not reach -- stop the bsa from reachingnflation targetank. . -- stop the bank from reaching its inflation target. guy: more people may be trapped in the rubble. fire broke out in an adjacent building. 100 firefighters were sent to the scene. francine: no uk financial regulator has been heavily criticized -- that triggered a selloff in the shares. the 83 page report into the incident says the fca created a false market in insurance shares and had no emergency plan. guy: quite embarrassing. that was the first of four election related -- let's call it events. events? with prime minister david cameron and the labor leader ed miliband. francine: he was more is anna edwards. it wasn't a debate. anna: a media set piece. francine: everyone wants to know who one. anna: you have the spin doctors after the event saying their man did. rudely put, the poll showed that cameron had won 54% and 46% said miliband won. there were some promising developments for miliband. when they were asked who would be the best prime minister, 1% said mili

at 0%, there could be a need for boj to revise the target 2% inflation further down the road.at is exactly what they had expressed. of course we will have the survey coming out in a couple of days from now. that is also a very important barometer as to how manufacturers are feeling. but this is not good for a nation that has had abenomics for a couple of years now. reporter: right. situation where japan is trying to stimulate the economy, i think patience is needed for the recovery. further yen weakness in the dollar yen. -- by dollar-yen about the end of the fourth quarter. at this point in time, a weaker yen would actually boost profit earnings in japan. corporate earnings have actually been surprisingly of said -- upside. angie: are you positive on china? reporter: am i worried about china? of course the recent data has been worse than expected. -- numbers came in blue below expectations. of course, over the weekend, in the meeting, they said that we could expect more. there could be more fiscal easing over the course of the year. that would be good for equity markets in ch

don't count out the boj.away from the infligs objective and they will keep going if china keeps making easing noises this should work well. in japan fanook responding to activists, big trend by some smart guys. >> doc? >> nintendo, judge. just take a look at this and super mario. they didn't just make some half you know what mobile system, they worked with one of the big powerhouses in mobile this dena company out of japan. that's why the stock is reacting like it did. if you just took mario and put it on a mobile the kids could play it on the phone i don't think it would get nearly the push it's getting now. >> pete, unusual activity and it's sap. >> right. >> on a day we're talking about oracle. >> and we've talked how many times weeks in a row about germany and the strength in europe. look at sap over the last week, stocks has gone from $67 a share, pushed over $70 a share today and they were also buying the april 70 calls, about 5400 traded. now they're over 7,000 of those being bought around that 1.65 ra

there was an estimate from barclays saying the economy would have to grow 9% for the boj to reach itsand that is obviously not going to happen. it is a return to growth. but it is definitely not strong and it is well below what the bank of japan on the government was hoping for. >> james joining us live from tokyo. let's head to china. imports fell again, reflecting weak domestic demand. stephen engle is looking at the data this morning. >> there are seasonal distortions, as there always are in february and january. the economists we surveyed knew about the seasonal distortions and the export numbers still handedly beat the expectations. up 48% in february for chinese exports. .trength of shipments if you combine january and february together, still fairly robust. 15% gain your over your for experts. -- year over year for exports. down 20% for imports. there is weak domestic demand and falling commodity prices. do the math. we see a record trade surplus for china of $60.6 billion surpassing january's record of $60 billion. the u.s. economy and the recovery is helping underpin the chin

it is also because the ecb and the boj have been aggressive to weaken currencies.om: we have an arch u.s. economist in drew matus and we have a foreign exchange guy. do you drive a ferrari? drew matus how does dollar dynamics change our imports? is olivia going to get the bmw she has always wanted? drew: if you want to look for an effect inside the u.s., it is consumer preferences. people are making more money and they are going to spend the money on imports. exports tend to be much less elastic. if the price changes around -- tom: imports do tend to change. drew: yes. tom: i want to drag you into it. this janet yellen care about this discussion? sebastian: to some extent. they are very happy in the u.s. emerging markets are going to repack themselves and the u.s. is going to have easy financing. for the u.s., it doesn't matter. it means there is a bit of a deflationary shock which is going to percolate to the u.s. it is a strong consumer at low inflation, which is an odd situation. tom: the deflationary impulse is not something that happens by june or september. d

the boj governor kuroda mentioning there is no rush for stimulus yet. they are asked acting possibles millis at the end of the second half of this year. we saw the value of overseas shipment telling on month. really worth following eight point express and -- investment falling eight .6%. >> china's central bank hovered are saying growth in the second -- governor said growth grew a little less antics acted. the feeling is -- less than expected. the feeling was that china had less to do with it. give us the details. both the central bank spoke atand president the for them about -- four of -- forum. inflation is declining. to see if be vigilant deflation will happen. patients was needed to see if the steps china has taken are working. china has plenty of room to act. this fits in with expectations there will be further rate cuts. meet theure china does growth target. the president said china's economy was take. it had huge potential and plenty focused onools. he the ways china could boost its own growth along with the region. about the asian infrastructure

we think the boj will announce more stimulus at the next april meeting.er central banks are looking to ease policy, particularly around europe. the ecb has announced a large amount of stimulus that has just kicked off. the yield dynamics in europe is going to become more negative overtime. it's really the trends are still going to broaden out. the pace of the dollar rally is going to slow. but we are still looking for the dollar to continue to strengthen into the end of the year. caroline: give us a sense of scale in terms of the dollar move, because it is off again. we are off about 10% your today. where do you see it closing? >> we are looking for the euro-dollar to move below parity down towards $.98. we are looking for the aussie to get down to $.70. sterling will be around 1.45. we think the dollar rally can continue another four or 5%, but it will stay. we don't see it kicking much beyond that. as the fed pointed out and other central banks know, it's not mutually exclusive. tightening monetary solutions come through the currency. mark: you have a c

but you look at other qe countries like where the fed, boj, bank of england, we see a big currency movementgram itself. we do see some residual weakness after the program starts. i think that does dovetail i think further downside for the euro. and any bounce there's a lot of corporate hedging which hasn't been done. they've been caught out over the course of the end of last year early this year. we've seen what the impact has on earnings and a lot of the guys, few have completed their hedging programs for the year. so that's -- >> you see a big euro sellers going forward to protect their earnings. >> if we see a bounce it will be a dollar risk rather than a euro risk. talking bunds, negative yields ten-year bunds not far from negative yields itself. for currencies yield differentials are so important. we look further out, the yield differential not looking good for the euro. >> how quickly can we get to parity? goldman says six months one to one. >> the next three months i think, certainly a key risk. i think there are strikes 103, 104, could see some of that added on over the next few wee

the monetary policy actions, the experiments at the boj and the ecb are far more powerful than the exitit's simply you're probably slowing down a bid at base. because the fed is telling you if we need to revise our forecast every quarter to reflect what's happening to the dollar and oil prices and other things we'll push the hike a quarter further down. so if their forecasts are realized they want to do december. i think that's the game they're playing. it's a chicken and egg game of how much dollar speed, and strength feeds into the fed and may slow down the pace. but the direction is set by the ecb. >> paul you said earlier you do think we're going to hit parity at some point. you didn't put a time frame. does the time frame of six months sound legit to you? >> we're not that far away. we're talking five or six big figures from here. it's not that far away. it's 5% 6% sort of move. i think we're consolidating it now because the marketplace got too enthusiastic about the hawkish fed. and this is not a hawkish fed. this is a fed that wants to in the fullness of time get off of zero. so