haidi: plus, counting down to the boj.to expect from the central bank with inflation still far below the 2% target. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets" as we look at central banks heading to the bigs are from stimulative houses. the boj looking like the last one to leave the party. bloomberg global economics and policy editor kathleen hays has a preview of the boj decision. we could get that any moment and governor kuroda's policy has had more than -- time than ever. has he put himself in a corner? kathleen: that is one way of looking at it. another way is that aggressive monetary policies and you less, the number one leg on prime minister abe's stool when he ago andabenomics a year governor kuroda is who he chose to put the policy in place. we know he has been determined to do that. we also know he has had a setback lately. if we look in our library, you can see the line going up. the white line is the main number, the ppi minus fresh fruit prices -- food prices has gotten weaker since the

moved, the boj must follow.w, does that give them more flexibility at least to continue on tapering and could go as far as dropping the reference? kathy: i think we have already seen movements like what we saw yesterday cutting back the operations. frankly, over the past year or two, if nothing particularly new. i think the challenge that the central bank obviously has is on the one hand, they want to maintain an easy monetary framework. on the other hand, they need to drop hints that this is not a permanent fixture of the environment. ansome point, there will be end to this program. there will be a normalization class. i think, dropping these hints here or there keeps those expectations in the market, but this is not to say it is signaling an eminent step in that direction necessarily. ramy: in terms of critics for negative interest rates, people thesaying this is damaging financials bottom lines. to what degree will this start to be a valid concern that could try to tip the scales in terms of removal? not voic

this is bloomberg. ♪ boj, ♪ boj, ♪ >> good morning, everybody. we have made it to friday.rcast and gloomy in singapore. asian equity markets under the weather a little bit as well as we wait from news from president trump and his team about where those tariffs will go on chinese products. let's get a bloomberg business flash with the juliette saly in singapore. $43 billionalcomm's acquisition is said to have been approved by chinese regulators. clearance from china would remove the final regulatory hurdle for the purchase, which has been pending for more than 18 months. the decision by chinese regulators will allow the transaction to be completed ahead of a july deadline set by nxp. both companies declined to comment. at&t has completed its $85 billion acquisition of a time warner. it is the combination of a 20 month battle to enter the media business. the completion of the deal came courtours after a federal -- motion was made in washington. but the ubsas headquarters -- about the ubs asset hasrs -- ck bought ubs london. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna? >> jul

the boj cannot move. everybody said they will hold policies. we are looking close up at the fact that here is the main number for the boj. take food prices from cpi. up april policy meeting was 1% and down to 0.7%. that is why they can't do anything. it needed there is a silver lining in this cloud. the more the policies diverge, this could weaken the yen. it could boost japanese exports. you helped pull out of that. i think it will be so interesting at the press conference, what kind of explaining governor kuroda has to say about that chart. the words will matter a lot. >> it is weakening and we're seeing further weakening right now in the japanese trading session. now let's get to the first word news with jenna. u.s. economy has become the world's bright spot as china and europe cool. likely to rack up growth of 4% in the current quarter. that is being spurred by solid consumer spending including may retail sales that beat expectations on thursday. imf chief christine lagarde says the treasury secretary steve mnuchin has criticized the u.s. f

onget the boj coming through friday.e will be watching other central banks around the world as well. we are now going to talk about this bonanza we are facing. there is a risk the fed is more hawkish today. there is a spread across the atlantic trading at more than 300 basis points. that could pose a problem for mario draghi tomorrow? >> not really. rateurrent level exchange is nothing that couldn't get reaction from the central bank. what we get from the ecb is the latest actual data. growth has not been supportive. the growth picture is somewhat less supported than what they had back in march. the inflation picture is a bit more supported. data is starting to come through lileit sger. suggesting this could be a meeting for the ecb tomorrow, the first one in the year. att: i am attending the ecb meeting tomorrow. the number one queion is ending they will set an for their quantitative easing program or keep the options open? what should i be asking mario ag and comny tomorrow? are they going to announce the end tomorrow,

we discussed the fed, ecb, and the boj.ead at the historic summit between donald trump and kim jong-un. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i really believe it makes sense for north korea to come to the table. >> this is historic. communication is something that is a positive step. >> we need to see what conditions emerge during the talks. >> piece first -- that is the number one killer. >> we're going to make a great deal for the world, for north korea, for south korea, for china. >> how long will it take? i think within the first minute i will know. i think very quickly i will know if something good is going to happen. i also think i will know if it will happen fast. presidents u.s. donald trump speaking on the eve of his summit with north korea's in the he will know first minute the two gentleman and in the room alone with the translators before their advisors arrive. we had a mixed fairly flat picture being painted by the futures a moment ago. looks like we're in positive territory right now. euro stocks appear to be pricing in som

we have decisions from the fed, ecb, and the boj. gmm is your function.tocks are lower in the wake of tariffs on china. greece, luxembourg, ftse in london, portugal down by 1.1%. to talk about the world cup, that is the current sweep. the swedish and icelandic kroner lower against the dollar. europe saw the biggest decline yesterday since june 24. 2016 on the wake of the ecb rate decision, which was no change, but they are facing out -- .hasing out kiwi -- qe we are seeing bond yields decline for the second consecutive day. tesco racked up a 10th consecutive quarter of growth. rice cuts,up escalating pressure on rivals as they seek to challenge its role as the uk's biggest retailer. and tesco up by 2.5%. excluding its acquisition of a wholesaler, which it acquired this year, same-store sales rose ending the 13th weeks may 26, beating estimates in just under four years. lewisief executive david has taken tesco from a company in disarray to one of the most reliable performers in the industry by cutting prices and slashing costs. rolls-royce was in the news

direction for the time being, the boj has no other choice but to keep the status quo, saying it willntain it for as long as it is necessary. that's all from the nikkei back to you. >> thank you for that. when the bank of japan do move, it will be a big one we'll have to keep on waiting for them >>> we had a big week as far as central banks are concerned. we had bank of japan, ecb, we had fed. so if you have any views on central bank policies, follow us on twitter, streetsignseurope@cnbc. >>> and more from monaco, where tanya breyer will speak to ignacio, the ceo of hijos d hijos de rivera. . >>> welcome back to the show rolls royce shares are surging after the company maintained its 2018 guidance. the enginemaker acknowledged issues with the trent 1,000 engine could cost 100 million pounds a year. rolls royce says it plans to offset the share the announcement comes a day after the enginemaker announced 4,600 job cuts >>> tesco has opened higher after posting higher than expected first quarter sales in the uk like for like sales rose 1.2%. chief executive david lewis said the company

boj is also in a touch and go situation.king at global developments and if the fed can still remain sanguine or not have an impact on interest rate differentials. geraldine, will you be buying any periphery bonds? i don't know if spain or italy are attractive because of the risk. despite the fact that yields have been going up, pimco is not recommending adding to the periphery currently. our stance remains because of all of this political and the fact that this is clearly having an impact on economic indicators and when things go wrong in europe, there is very little room for maneuver. that makes us on easy on the periphery in general. do we worry about things going wrong in europe? stephen: that is one example of things going wrong. what do you mean. [laughter] are we back to the greek crisis? because cut our 12 month view on the euro-dollar. resolutely, there is the view that europe will face another crisis. and what comes out of the next one or two summits on the european council is not going to be enough to complete the

in the context of the boj, i'm surprised by the immediate reaction to these measures from the boj.he yen will be stronger than the market is assuming come as the boj aggressively walks back from their -- matt: today's move provides an opportunity to get in dara:. just to get in there. -- to get in there. jeremy: there's interest in terms of the selloff we have seen. matt: on the cb, is it a big meeting, the next one? do we expect to find out if the ecb is want and it's bond buying purchase program? jeremy: the meeting is in june. the general on is one where we have the updated forecast. that gives an intellectual changing dynamics. we are getting close to that september deadline in terms of bond buying strategy. we have the ecb symposium later in june. there are three key events in the ecb calendar. it gives us opportunities for the cb to robach and give us greater clarity on the bond buying. the -- the ecb would like to see more information of a rebound that may be more inflationary pressure to influence their decision. matt: it is him was like covering -- i did the dryer financia

the yen, the boj cut its buying of 5-10 jgb's by ¥20 billion.ating, looking steady, could be softer for a fourth day against the dollar. the boj essentially taking advantage of the stability and bond yields and the yen to sell paper. rishaad: let's get to our guests now. thanks for coming in. what a horrible first half of the year two you must have been busy. -- half of the year. you must of been busy. >> i think people were shellshocked and confused about the flows coming out of china. tradetepped up after the tensions between the u.s. and china escalated. we are in a phase of the market where the risk appetite is weak ,nd people will sell first looking at the empty half of the glass. rishaad: it is becoming in gear that is for certain. you have the trade noise in the background, but this is affecting many different asset classes in china. credit markets have been tighten. theirof people can't give bonds away and are having trouble logging them to brokers on the street. sentiment change in that goes beyond concerns about a trade war. >> a few t

>>he view e will be no change as well in the boj.we are overweight terms of the house view precisely for that reason. a feel there is still potential upside both in capital gains from that position, and onversely, we are negative the states and across the eurozone. for that reason, we think there is more upside and a likelihood the boj will remain flat. haslinda: you seem comfortable and a lot of investors seem comfortable. the underpricing risk. could you be miscalculating the risk? >> yes. i mean, inevitably there is a risk to the view, quite naturally. there has to be a risk to the view. ultimately, our services on brexit, our expectations we will ion in theelerat markets over the next six months is a view. it is one we are looking and believing we are seeing early evidence and leading indicators of. if we were to have an acceleration in geopolitical risk -- i did mention the trade war's -- such that a break was put on that momentum, that would be a risk to our view. on that basis, we would probably see a reversal of some of the t

we also have the ecb tomorrow and the boj on friday.or more on what we can expect, we are joined by sasson gura monday, president and ceo of sdh macro advisors. how well positioned our markets right now? are generallys position for a fairly benign outcome from all three central banks. a little bit of nervousness out there but the interesting thing is that tt will be hiking, the ecb is talking about signaling an end to their quantitative ease program. the markets expect the delivery of both of those messages and importantly what is in store beyond 2019, to be relatively benign. it is a little different than where the markets we positioned in march, which is interesting, when the markets, i ed because very on of the humphrey hawkins testimony that jay powell had given at the time where he talked about overheating, really looking for signals of four rate hikes, prep for it. since then, jay powell has come out relatively cautious and moderate. the markets are pricing in just a little over three for this year, which is where the fed is, give

mario draghi speaks alongside his counterparts at the boj and rba. watch live on bloomberg tv and on -- here it on the radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ 23 minutes into the market this morning in europe. the bond markets reacted quickly to what was being said. it's, a little red. i don't know how else to say it. germany is under pressure this morning, no surprise given what is going on with the trade story. this morning, trading down by 1.6%. at question i would ask, what point do we get to the point where there is enough selling? cuestors will take their from the central bank, which is going to be a pivotal piece in all of this. as a result, we are focusing our attention on matt miller. matt: larry summers is definitely helping out the bears warning that global governments and central banks are not prepared in case there is another recession. they need to stop worrying about stopping inflation and continue worrying about incubating their economies. as a result, there are going to be a bought of questions about policy. -- a lot of questions about policy. i

not demeaning the fed or boj. the best we can hope for when it comes to the qe program discussion? nearly, it will be on the table, but how do they address it? how does draghi communicated in the post meeting news conference? close call, last week's speeche changer was the by the chief economist who was hawkish. with him, going one week ahead of the big meeting, in my view, means they will present something. not only be limited to short-term words, but i could imagine they announce another extension of qe beyond september, at least until december at a lower level. this would give a sign they are willing to start the exit. it would also be a sign they are moving toward the end, they are moving to stop it by the end of december, but at the same time, keep some flexibility. we don't know about the doubt -- downswing? matt: that is bullish. how can they keep that optionality and give an ending for quantitative easing? carsten: i don't think they give an end date. that would be the worst thing to do, but they could ann

hand, according to the boj advisor.e prepared for a possible overheating of the u.s. economy, and could quickly weaken the yen. the white line is the fed fund target rate, and that purple is the biaggi policy -- boj policy going nowhere. he thinks they could go around that ¥125 to the dollar level. haidi: over to you. let's have a look at something you can understand, how we have seen the top six technology companies in the world actually grow. this bar chart going back to 2000. you can see that microsoft was the absolute winner, secrets in all the others at that point with a near $200 billion market cap. it has grown and grown and grown. butthe others have, too, none more so than apple when it took the title of the biggest tech company in 2010. it was still smaller than at some mobile stage, but look at it now. the $1 trillion level. we are at $950 billion as we speak. there you have it. haidi: it was an interesting strategy to insult my intelligence, very daring. [laughter] a daring approach. notwithstanding that, i'm

looks like we will be stuck here for a while on the boj. the low rate environment, has anything changed? has that spurred anything? >> it has. a low rate environment does two things. it impacts your rate of return and the present value of your liabilities. firstly, increasing asset allocation a rod from institutional investors. we have seen quite a bit of m&a activity in the last four to five years, especially from insurance companies as they seek diversification and ongoing growth. additionally, for even the retail investment in japan, there is focus from a -- from sure thatow can we be retail investors have the longevity of return for the retirement and for the children's education. there is a lot of focus on that domestic we as well. david: what are the opportunities now we look at the equity market? when you look at the benchmarks, the nikkei are the topix, they haven't gone anywhere. we have to look further down, small caps. where do we look? >> we look at small-cap and large-cap here in japan. it is interesting on the small caps side.

the boj will probably be a nonevent. do afterknow what to these central-bank meetings and lord knows we are used to the brexit debates, but what do we do on the korean summit? if there's a positive outcome, do assets react? if there's a negative outcome, do people flood the yen? what happens? c.: a lot of excitement in singapore but it hasn't been a market story yet. when you look at markets, this very little movement overall taste on this and that's because investors have a longtime talking about this. you can't hedge for armageddon, so there wasn't a lot of negative stuff raised in when it was bad. now that's it's positive, there's good well. it matters for korean assets. does it matter for the wider region? it might do. but we need to see concrete steps clarified before we see broader market reaction tomorrow. mark b.: mark, great stuff. you can follow live market insights from mark and the rest of the team on the bloomberg l.a. the -- bloomberg mliv. do not miss that. president trump and kim jong-un both arrived in s

why did the boj choose to do this now? year yields are drifting back towards zero, which is the bottom of the range that the bank of japan has been trying to keep. the bank of japan has been trouble getting the 10 year bonds it wants. the market has sold much to the bank of japan. chunk of -- hold a big the market. it would make sense to reduce purchases if they can. they are buying a lot of bonds, even though they reduced it. they are trying to keep the 10 year yield in the range. it would be more interesting if they focus on the yield curve. yield curve steepening they were trying to do, yield curve control as they described it. that was to steepen the curve carried they are in the process of doing that again, that will weaken the yen and maybe we will hear more about it at the next bank of japan meeting, that they will reemphasize they would still like a steeper curve and that would be interesting for the market. are we looking at potentially talking about the end to qe or tapering? this is going to be a drawnout proces

week am ating out the boj meeting right eight.ion is still way away from the 2% inflation target. does that mean a change? kathleen: what is interesting is they had a week first quarter growth. -- weak first-quarter growth. i love this chart. looking at the boj, what is on their radar screen when they say we will get inflation. this is core cpi. it is weakening, back to 0.7%. up here, this white line is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. if you are above it, you could have bold inflation. below you can be up. -- you could speed up. people are expecting this to see inflation and japan at 1% and rising by the third quarter this year. we will see what governor kuroda says on friday. haidi: our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays for that, rounding out our massive week for investors and geopolitics, elbowing each other for headlines. bloomberg users can interact with the chart shown using gtv . there are charts featured on bloomberg television, catch up on key analysis and save the charts. that is al

the boj left policy unchanged. significant he downgrading its assessment of inflation falling behind his global peers. we have seen what is happened with the fed and the ecb. ,oining us now from singapore west goodman. what impact is that going to have? hi. i think it is more of the same from the boj. they have cut their inflation outlook a whole bunch of times so one more is not going to change a lot. they are going to keep the 10 year yield at zero. this highlights the contrast with the fed. to ecb said they are going stop there bond purchases this year. for a country for such a bank raising its rate as in the u.s., the currency should rise. for a country like japan where they have monetary easing and easing insight for as far as we can see, the currency is falling. this announcement today will put more downward pressure on the end. trump is nownt said to approve tariffs on $50 billion of chinese goods. by my count, this is the third time in the last three months he has threatened new tariffs against china. i gue

you have the fed, boj, and european central bank, and you get to the back half of this year were thingset interesting. what are the implications for markets? when the ecb stops buying and the fed's balance sheet rolls off more aggressively? krishna: trying to figure out the direction of rates based on just that supply and demand right,, i think, is not for the following reasons. in economic terms, you get to an equilibrium. interest rates are something that comes out of reaching that you go live for him rather than supply and demand getting you there. what that means is it depends on what your expectations are with respect to the economy. the ecb may not be buying bonds anymore but the european economy continues to slow down the way it is, then the implications are very different. the same applies for the fed as well. the u.s. economy is accelerating going into the second half. as long as it continues to do that, rates probably rise as a result. if that is not the case, things will revert that. if the ecb was not in the game, do economic conditions exist to justify the german curve to b

wednesday, president mario draghi speaks alongside his counterparts from the fed, boj, and rba.e discussing the markets and listening to everything these gentlemen have to say. it will be moderated by stephanie flanders from bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ anna: good morning. 8:18 in berlin. 7:19 in london. we will talk more about germany. the dollar, under pressure, 11 5.93. germany's crisis over migration policy is at a critical phase. faces a standoff with her interior minister and coalition partner. italy signaled its intentions to refuse to harbor refugee vessels. we are joined by our reporter in berlin. great to have you on our program. how serious is this for angela merkel, how much pressure is she under? it is serious at the moment. partner, taking control of a national border is they are facing at the moment regional elections in to say tond they want their electorate, we have changed the course in german policy. they were always against angela merkel on this issue and always said germany has to take control of its border. they are really eager to push this conversati

the weekend, featuring decisions from the fed, ecb and boj, the three big ones.ll discuss them. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final spread. over the next week, a trio of central bank decisions by the fed, ecb, and bank of japan out with announcements, a ton of economic data as well, including u.s. cpi and retail sales. plus, the trump-kim summit in singapore. the president set to publish a final list of targets on chinese imports. unbelievable week ahead that we have coming up. with me around the table, andy chorlton, kathy jones, and jay berry. is international diplomacy a risk for the global bond market? is that something you even have to think about over the next week? kathy: we have had a few surprises recently when it comes to the international diplomacy. obviously, the big thing we worry about is the trade outlook. that has the potential to impact global growth and fed policy and central-bank policy and inflation, etc. at this stage of the game, we tend to shrug these off

we had pretty weak japanese inflation for may, underscoring the trap the boj is in not being able tot extraordinary monetary policy soon. concerns over baking stock in japan with issues over the 0% policy weighing on profitability. he spoke about the disappointment chinese investors had in not getting the rrr cut. we are down about .1% there. if you look at the premium investors are paying for u.s. stocks versus shanghai, we haven't seen that gap ever be ins wide, more than doubled the u.s. than on shanghai from a price-to-book ratio. around the region, it is a sea of red and we see more markets across asia on the cusp of coming into the bear market territory. manus: it looks like the bears will have it before the week is out. breaking news on sharp. eye, they are announcing a cell of shares. up to ¥216.2 billion. sharp using the proceeds to buy back preferred shares and for our entity, a court -- r and d according to the japanese finance ministry. a little reaction there, sharp announcing the sale of shares. let's turn to our main story of the day. it is the white house officials tr

the efforts of the ecb, boj, etc., to suppress real yields and keep the structure very low has a gravitationall. the curve is going to stay flatter than i originally thought, even though i think the front end offers a regional safety. i'm not sure that the 30-basis point curve today is sending a signal sent in the mid-1990's at a different rate structure with much less activism. jonathan: i think that's a good point. i think the majority of our viewers would agree with that as well. does that resonate with you? mark: i give myself the grade for calls of the year coming into january, this is an area where i give myself b or b-, because we did not think the curve what flatten this way. i am sticking with the call. i'm not sure that we continue to flatten. i'm getting more concerned. as we think about the tray dynamic and what we are seeing from the global growth standpoint, the inability to decouple we mentioned, you have got to be a little bit worried about that. however, long-term, i believe that we are normalizing across the board from a monetary policy standpoint. that means higher. jonathan

street carl quintanilla with jim cramer david is off today busy week ahead with the fed, the ecb, the boj, and the u.s./north korea summit. europe up on reassuring comments from italy today the road map begins with shrugging off tension. futures are steady ahead of the singapore summit this evening. the white house escalates criticism of one of america's closest allies >>> and a big week for media awaiting the fate for at&t time warner the president is in singapore. the meeting with kim jong-un in 12 hours the president fresh off the g7 summit in canada the administration refusing to sign the joint statement from the group. the president calling justin trudeau dishonest and weak and the president's trade advisor peter navarro went on television and took it atep further. >> there's a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages with bad faith diplomacy with president donald trump and tries to stab him in the back. and that's what justin trudeau did with the stunt press conference that's dishonest justin trudeau did. >> larry kudlow said it was an amateur political stunt. we're

war is a run for the hills i think we had a week of more important events i mean the fed i mean the bojeard the fed chair basically tell us he thinks the economy is in great stakes. that would be very much at risk for people that are running for the hills. so it's been an opportunity to buy every time we've had a trade war segment. i think you have an opportunity, though, to be trading a range or near the top of a range. i'm not freaking out but the s&p doesn't need to go higher in the next week. >> we've seen that they walk it back a bit there's a big escalation and big announcements. sunday morning at 7:03 donald trump tweets something that maybe we're back in negotiations with them. i think the market is becoming conditioned to that. it doesn't remove the fact we could have an escalation by miscalculation we go too far on the negotiating table. but for now, until proven otherwise, you have to assume that the initial foray, the initial shot here is always walked back. >> get a little bit real july 6th is the actual date tariffs will be imposed on the chinese goods. all of a sudden we

and you can go through the balance sheet of the federal reserve, add in the boj and european central and you get to the back half of this year, that things start to get quite interesting. what are the implications for markets from essentially that chart, when the ecb stops buying, and the fed's balance sheet rolls off more aggressively? krishna: i think trying to krishna: i think trying to figure out the direction of rates based on just that supply and demand picture, i think just not right for the following reason. at the end of the day, in economic terms, you get to an equilibrium. and interest rates are a determinant of something that comes out of reaching that equilibrium, rather than supply and demand getting you there. what that means is it depends on what your expectations are with respect to the economy. so, the ecb may not be buying bonds anymore, but if the european economy continues to slow down the way it is, then the implications are very, very different. the same applies for the fed as well. that is, the u.s. economy is accelerating going into the second half. and as lo

the ecb will want to be as clear as jay powell was and then boj tomorrow?t most difficult. the ecb is in danger of becoming an over mighty citizen, if you like. if you see the way the debate runs in italy -- dangerous ground in telling you about italy but -- the ecb is presented as the bogeyman. across allo be elements of the financial system, regulating italian banks and who are they to do that? interfering in our responsibilities and our institutions -- the ecb has it more difficult. they were given the banking supervision responsibilities in the eurozone crisis because the leaders cannot produce another treaty, they cannot get agreement. it was loaded on the ecb, which happened to be there. they are in the most difficult position. i talke: tom and everyday about a possible cross-border consolidation in the banking sector. rumors -- never confirmed. is it time that europe consolidates? howard: the ecb has been forthright in saying they think some consolidation is necessary, e oficularly among the tal middle and smaller banks in places like italy. as a gen

bonds, andend buying the boj should maintain its massive stimulus program as well.s in more detail. we are back with our guest. he emerging markets earnings have been sliding since the start of the year. libraryrt from our gtv shows us what has been happening. this is the s&p since the start of the year, estimates up and up . after a spike in march, we have an sliding. does that represent what is going on? how worried are you about what is going on in emerging markets? >> we are not too much worried about that. theings came down after touary period of february april. now we are seeing earnings coming through, especially asia given the economic data has started to rebound. q1 is the soft patch for the global economy and the global economy we'll -- will improve from the end of q2. we are not too much worried about the soft patch of earnings in the last few months. forou look at earnings asian markets, we are looking at 12%,rowth this year, and 13% next year. come tonvestors emerging markets for premium growth, and they are getting it at this time, so despite the soft

don't forget the boj is on friday as well.loomberg. ♪ david: welcome to "bloomberg markets: balance of power," my otr >> this is a good show. so much ahead. a focus on the intersection of politics and the economy. david: top stories. trade civil war. congress moves to limit presidentrump's trade actions. .e talk with senator ben cardin what's the deal? both sides have their own views after the summit. is the threat really over? let's get together. adc court gives an emphatic green light to at&t by time warner. what deals are waiting in the shery: the federal reserve tells us at 2:00 this afternoon, what it has decided over its meetings. markets are certain, policymakers will announc

the boj on top, the fed in the middle and the ecb.he biggest central banks are still nearly $12 trillion higher than when the lehman collapsed in 2008. we are still short of that 12.3 trillion peak. certainly there will be a focus as these major central banks are headed to portugal this week. the likes of jay powell, mario draghi, but in asia we on central bank watch. are due to, taiwan release monetary policy updates. an economist. thanks for joining us. let's take a look at the chart. do think it is a really for emerging markets asia central-bank? we may have reached the peak of central money but we are not close to tightening just yet. >> i think the case for morgan stanley, we have the fed let -- the fed hike three times this year and next year. why fourth-quarter next year policy, we will not be in restricted territory. we estimate it will be 20 basis points above the neutral rate. i think it will be conducive for the asia central banks. not forgetting that this is a repeat of 2015. most countries under my coverage are better tha

which is more important for the boj?to the hope from japan's point of view is that the fed keeps tightening as the differential widens. is back to 100. it goes 100. they have nothing left. result, the bigger gap you could put between the u.s. and japan, the more comfortable they will be. they really run out of options. ramy: looking at what is of fedng with the face hikes. how is asia really standing up right now? we have seen some central banks raising their rates right now. asia already looks a lot less honorable. -- are the countries of fairly well managed in terms of public policy in general. case, theyonesia's have been proactive. they have raised rates twice. as a result, we are fairly relaxed about asia. they do not have fundamental problems and also, the policy making seems to raise rates it was well. he seemed to be proactive enough to dodge most of the excess coming out of asian markets. the fed is want to raise rates every quarter. it is only going to get worse for you. ramy: is jay powell right in staying the

i'm not expecting the boj to take any action.ng the european central bank to talk about quantitative easing but not shift policy. the elephant in the room is the target to lending system, where the central banks within the eupean central bank lend money to each other but never zero the balances. the moment we have germany contributing around one trillion euros into the system. we have italy and spain borrowing 450 billion each. we have france borrowing 100 billion. i think the european central bank will be wary of upsetting the apple cart. francine: james bevan stays with us. coming up, nicky mjoins us. and al be talking brexit very important report on women in finance. r bonuses. go after the bank this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: good morning everyone, "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. theresa may has avoided a brexit built defeat. the u.k. prime minister has reassured pro-eu members that she years their concerns over the possibility of leaving without a deal. the balance could be tough to strike