yvonne: boj just came out, the policy balance rate at -0.1%, the 10-year boj target with note change it comes to inflation, still see inflation cooling below 2% next fiscal year. they say risk for prices are on the upside though. that's what we're hearing so far, rish? >> there is upside for the short-term as well because they see inflation at 2%. the target jgb yield target on the 10-year is still about 0%, and on the policy balance rate again, -.1%. steady as she goes here is what i'm seeing. david? david: this is a walking contradiction. [laughter] here's what they are not saying. they will keep buying it, this is the first time they have actually said this. they will keep buying 10-year jgb set .25% every business day. they need to watch for fx markets, which is why they are looking at prices rising to the upside because they expect inflation to come through but the end remains weak. yvonne: we all were looking for some sort of tweak when it comes to how they view the currency. there is a need to watch the fx, that is not saying too much. we are at 146.66 right now. there's going

given the diversions swissie between the boj and the fed. shery: minutes of the federal reserve's last meeting showing the central bank is firmly committed to bringing down inflation as some anticipate the need to start calibrating the pace of rate hikes. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays is here with the details. which camp is she in? kathleen: let's hear what she said and then you can decide. for me it is obvious. it shows unanimously they are committed to bringing it down 2%. there is talk about potential calibration. several participants. you never can tell, many might be more than several. it is still a sizable, significant number. they are looking at highly uncertain global economic developments. they are looking to calibrate the pace of further tightening. it has to do with the size of rate hikes. we know that there are economists and central bankers and policymakers around the world were raising questions, not just in the u.s. but about what the fed is doing. they also say the fed is going to maintain interest-rate

people are waiting for the boj decision later today.to credit suisse, suffering its single against daily decline on record after a years of big losses and scandals. let's bring in su keenan. it investors do not seem impressed. >> the top leaders describe this restructuring as radical and decisive, but analysts say it was not radical enough and it was not exactly decisive. take a look at price action. investors rejected this after the capital raise, a multibillion race that deludes the stock. it felt like historic proportions in europe, and in the u.s. adrs fell by even more. this is not the result the ceo was looking for. he spoke to bloomberg earlier. >> it is a much simpler, much more stable, focus bank going forward, which will deliver sustainably profitable results to our shareholders. >> it is simple, stable, focused. you were looking at the recent history of credit suisse, years of scandals and multibillion dollar losses. analysts had hoped for more shrinkage and investment banking, and they say instead the plan is more complicate

-- given the boj is not budging coming to its ultra-loose policy. you are right. we do not expect the bank of japan will change its current monetary policy. the economy has not truly recovered here. the demand is weak and must consider in real time, the consumer spending could be week and could lead to weaker consumer spending. that is why the bank of japan thinks it is too early to change its monetary policy. we don't expect it is going to be as the government and bank of japan since the company cannot transfer its cost out of the crisis, especially the medium to small size industries. haidi: we see some potential weakness when it comes to the big companies. are we seeing the diversions between the company and services with the opening of orders and manufacturers? harumi: right now, consumer spending has started to improve from the last part. the government has started and truly open borders. since the yen is still week, more than 30%, this could be able to lift consumer spending for the fourth quarter. the legal term for the next five months, it i

however the boj field curve control ends. as unannounced. >> translator: boj might stop ycc this year to make it a surprise. if they announce the intentions in advance, the cost will doing it balloon. >> in other words, if investors know japanese rates are set to rise, they'll bump previously issued bonds with lower yields. that could cause yields to shoot up in a okay the -- a chaotic way. they have to keep buying bonds nm the cap is lifted. to avoid this they have to end the policy without warning. he has surprised markets in the past. investors are wondering if he will do so again. waiting to see how and when his yield curve control policy comes to an end. nhk world. >> all right. let's have a look at the markets. >>> from the newsline biz team in tokyo, i'm gene otani. thank you for being with us. Ñn■x n safely observe. >> this is al jazeera. richie sunak has taken office. jeremy irons will continue as finance minister. >> i will place economic stability at the heart of this agenda. this will mean difficult

same thing for the boj.tightening financial conditions, what will this mean for authorities in some of these economies that are suffering? >> a global financial conditions really feeds into broader emerging markets in a couple ways. the first is of course that it really forces those central banks or economies that have significant amount of debt for instance, those with higher domestic debt as well, to really catch up to the federal reserve. they need capital inflows unfortunately, this is going the opposite direction to what potentially the domestic economy requires in china's case. china needs more stimulus, not less. that being said, pboc has lagged the global tightening cycle. that is of some comfort, but marginal at best. don't forget the credit intensity of gdp in china is off the charts. it suggests china has a lot of work to do, far more stimulus than the token policy injections we have seen today. >> as you have listed the litany of woes for china's economy, policymakers, it is pretty long at this p

the boj. you can see this because of a giant job. we are going to die -- dive into all of this. >> we certainly want to talk about some of these different flavors we are getting out of industries that have been reporting earnings this week. on the one hand, star performance from services giant schlumberger. this has picked up over the course of the year because of where oil had been so they had standout numbers. hospital operators are different stories. tenant under 238%. everyone has been talking about the market reaction to stepchild parent snap think quarter, digital advertising has been -- staff chats -- snapcahta's parent. talk about standout numbers from at&t. today, a negative action to verizon which may play into the competition with the telecom industry. >> something to keep an eye on. we had the chance to speak with stephen mager about the recent surge in 10-yield. >> the valuations today show -- on the recency bias. i can honestly believe that yields will keep going up in the near term but you can also build a possible sce

david: we had the boj meeting this week. understand you think they won't do anything as far as policy settings are concerned. it takes me to the next question on the yen. how sustainable is the strategy to keep intervening? they have reserves. they have money to keep doing that. how long can they keep doing that? >> you are right, we do not expect the boj to change policy. they have previously said fx is not going to drive policy. they continue to focus on the wage growth in japan which remains weak. as investors seem to be expecting some moves up front from the boj, i think the post meeting reaction could be further yen weakness. given the first intervention in september just after the boj, when the yen appreciated quickly , i think the intervention risk continues to weigh on the current -- the currency here. the minister of finance, the fx chief said they have unlimited amount of ammo to defend the currency. it is not unlimited in a miracle way, but they do have a significant amount of reserves. it amounts to ¥130 trillion

it's a test of traders against the boj, the governor.don't sound anywhere near close to ending stimulus. he says it is still needed as long as he has driven that line in the sand, no doubt the question on the other side is what will it take to get the government to take more steps and see if they can send a signal that they will try to put a on this and they won't spare any resources if they decide to do it. i think for all the reasons people are looking at, it's not always very effective. they will be a slow to do it they can't. paul: that's -- let's talk about japan's september inflation report. what will this mean going forward? >> troubled way not much because it's not going to change this line, these ideas about inflation. the core cpi the one that is most important that takes out food prices is expected to rise in september from 2.8% to 3.0%. it is continuing to reach these new highs but again, the governor says it's not going to last, it's not sustainable. he thinks economies were to be under pressure. even with the boj meeting da

meanwhile, boj governor ku roda said he would keep on easing.e economy was not ready for interest rate hikes and the easing policy must continue. more of the same policy-wise and messagingwise. however, japan has intervened in september and is prepared to do so again. it has got enough reserves by most calculations to do another few interventions if needed. so, markets have to be on watch. last night, there were some sharp moves when we hit that 32-year low. didn't look big enough to be an intervention, but notice from the comments in washington, one finance ministry official declined to comment on whether japan had stepped into markets again. that leaving doubt out in the markets is probably a smart move. shery: it touched 147 point 67 and we are not expecting the government to give us a heads up when they actually do step into the markets. but what is the top coming from either minister suzuki or governor kuroda about having to explain the moves to international players? we have talked about how unilateral intervention by japan will not work,

we continue to hear from the boj governor talking about the fx situation, the economy in japan.ing that japan's inflation is driven by cost push factors emphasizing the point that the boj will continue its loose monetary policy until they get sustainable inflation. we are seeing the japanese yen around 1998 low against the u.s. dollar. china's 20th communist party national congress beginning on sunday and it will be the most important one in decades. xi jinping is expected to secure a third term and power. there is much more at stake for the next generation of chinese leaders below him. stephen engle explains. >> china's communist party has pre-much held fast to a mandatory retirement age of 68. allowing past party leaders to oust rivals and promote proteges. hundreds have been forced to leave the 200 plus member central committee over the last couple of decades. thing is the man at the top xi jinping is now 69. he will not be stepping down. due to a constitutional change he pushed through in 2018. it begs the question, will his next power-play the age limits for everyone but hi

what does the boj need to do and is it under their control?the japanese economy will recover for this year and next year. also the previously accepted, i think the boj will not change its monetary policy down the road. or its monetary stance, at least before the end of this fiscal year. i think that japan's potential growth is very low based on what i've said. so i think boj should keep low the domestic market and -- policy change could be in the next fiscal year, after governor changes. and also u.s. monetary tightening ends. haidi: really appreciate your time. kameda executive economist. there is more to come. this is ♪ david: a quick now -- quick check now up stocks, tracking when the japanese markets get up and running. energy shares very much in focus. much to consider of course, cutting output by more than a million barrels a day. keeping an eye on that. change the boards. may be after teslas deliveries, missing forecasts. fashion retailer is set to report. mena move on those numbers. haidi? haidi: let's look at the trading way comes the

and that divergence between the fed and boj that continues to put pressure on japan.e seeing inflation, how entrenched is a question going forward a big gap between inflation dynamics in japan and other parts of the world. eu leaders gathered in brussels for a highly anticipated summit dominated by energy and the war in ukraine. it comes after the head of the commission, ursula von der leyen, unveiled a sweeping plan to bring down the energy crisis. to be briefed, we bring in our european correspondent maria tadeo. there has been a plan of action, are you getting the sense there is political will to lock it in and implement it? maria: what a question, tom but yes, that is fundamentally the issue. there is now a roadmap very clearly laid out by the commission. the criticism two weeks ago was that there were too many ideas floating around. now we know that on paper they will talk about this dynamic price cap, the joint bridges and the circuit breaker, all of this with the goal of bringing down energy bills. the commission just laid out executive action, decisions come d

boj at the end of the week is the highlight for us.arket is on edge over the possibility they will blink in terms of giving some sign there may be a shift in policy at some point in the future. the boj has been adamant that's not going to happen so we are looking at chinks in the armor and what that could do to local bond markets and local currency markets. yvonne: what has happened in the last hour in chinese markets? why are things so bad? paul: international investors are taking another look and thinking this is not for us. rishaad: it was surely expected. paul: it's very emphatic. the move is a clean sweep in terms of people from xi's panel. it's going to make chinese assets very difficult to trade, unless you are trading in line with what xi is trying to achieve, and some of it may be not palatable with international investors. it is very hard to make that call and be able to invest with confidence. international investors and the ones pulling out again, you see these stronger market reaction in hong kong and you see the yuan unde

that they are willing to test the boj's measure here.rms of yen swaps climbing, absolutely, average coupons on ten-year year bonds pushing higher. process -- crossing and negative rates around the time and negative rates ending around the time kuroda steps out in april. all of this is telling us this will be ongoing yen pressure, ongoing pressure on jgb because people, investors are just not convinced that the boj can cling to its ultra dovish monetary policy stance where inflation is pushing high into japan. and as long as treasury yields continue to edge higher, as long as the dollar continues to push ever higher, you are guaranteed to see pressure day by day. paul: how about pressure on the offshore yuan. we did see it has reached into august 2010 yesterday. how much more downside and how are policymakers managing this decline in china? ruth: it's another key currency that's under a lot of pressure. again, the divergent story. you've got the fed hiking interest rates aggressively for what's happening in china, the opposite is happenin

raising the ante for the boj and the japanese finance minister.is has been the week all along. the fed aggressive rate hikes, the divergence with the boj and it does not let up. the fed has to do what it has to do, it is not looking out for japan and the yen at all. so speaking today, basically saying that he does expect rates well above 4% by the end of the year. and what is driving him? we are going to keep raising rates for a while. given our frankly disappointing last of progress -- lack of progress. i expect we will be well above 4% by the end of this year. we know fed officials at the meeting us regard expect it to do a 75 basis point rate hike. they could do another one in december could that would be 150 basis points per that would get the fed to 4% by the end of the year. so clearly, this is in focus. it is not like this is anything we haven't heard before, paul, but he is doubling down on it. lisa cook, federal reserve board governors saying once again that she sees ongoing rate hikes. and in fact, she says today inflation is too high. i

the big story out of japan was the boj buying bonds. rishaad: ok. let's go to the first word news.hina central bank vowing to maintain the healthy development of the housing market. the comments were made at meetings held at the party congress. the former pakistan prime minister says he is starting a protest march. he was ousted by a no-confidence vote in april but is making a push to return to power. the prime minister says elections will not be happening until late next year. a former hong kong leader has been found guilty of fraud. the 74-year-old is serving 20 months in prison for his role in on authorized assembly. he is facing charges under the beijing national security law. a new study has found booster shots from moderna and pfizer do not do any better than current vaccines against the dominant covid strains. the research contrasts with claims earlier this month of positive early data. results need to be confirmed. that is a look at the first word headlines. david: the story about yesterday, it was mostly emfx, the lira. today it's about the one. is the chinese central bank

boj board members wrapped up a two day policy meeting. they zuded decided to keep the term interest rate in negative territory and will guy government bonds to hold long term rates around zero percent. the board also raced the inflation forecast for this fiscal year which ends next ma. they expect prices to increase by 2.9%, up from the 2.3% it announced in july. this is the medium forecast for the consumer price undecindex. energy and raw materials rows and the yen weakens. >> translator: after the new year, overseas cost push factors weaken. and that will help reduce the year on year consumer price index increase through the middle of fiscal 2023. in the latest outlook, cpi is projecting to rise to about 3%. before coming down to the mid 1% range in fiscal 2023. >> boj governor adds it is possible for prices and wages to increase faster than the bank anticipates. but at this moment, it is unlikely that inflation will stabilize around 2% in the next fiscal year. >> u.s. media had reported that bill yoi an elon musk completed his $44 bill

justina: people keep wondering, is the boj going to join the rest of the world in turning its monetary policy around, but if anything, the indication are getting out of its meeting today is that it is sticking to its guns. a part of that is that it does not see inflation as egg of a problem in japan and it sees the consumer price growth cooling next year. francine: thank you. that is justina lee from our mliv team. in the meantime, volkswagen cut its vehicle sale expectations for the year as chip availability remains scarce and logistics continue to pose a challenge. the reported third-quarter results missed expectations also due to cost related supply chain problems. and remember that the porsche ipo listing also cost them 1.6 billion pounds -- actually, billion euros. we spoke to the chief executive of volkswagen this morning and i ask him about supply chain issues and how recession risks are hurting customer demand. >> we are living in challenging times with our global crisis and this is why the supply chain issues are part of this. we lift up our operating profits to 70.5 billion e

alix: you mentioned a boj intervention so what would that look like?ould the shift in the yield curve affect policy? >> intervention will come from the minister of finance, not the boj. they do with the treasury tells them to do step they just come into smooth at, it's not intervention that they expected to stop stop the last time they intervened, you would be happy to have those dollars today. the yield curve control, i think we see the situation in japan different than everywhere else in the world. they still don't have inflation that they need and they are still depressed and there's things they need to do themselves. guy: great to catch up as ever. stick around for what is happening in the foreign exchange markets. netflix is having a good day. we'll talk netflix in detail next. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: we are one hour into you was trading sessions. flying back a lot of losses. the nasdaq 100 up .7. abigail is tracking those moves. abigail: on the s&p 500, we are looking at a 1% intraday move to the upside, so a bullish reversal, closer to 1%. na

boj buying -- this is boj not buying -- that spread is widening, which indicates the market is selling those bonds that the boj is not buying quite aggressively. rishaad: tell us, what does the bank of japan actually do? it does seem that they are subscribing to the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. do we have to wait to see where kuroda goes next year? >> that would have been our base case until about a month ago. now we think maybe there will be some measures. yvonne: we are seeing stress in the high-yield market in china. brad: measures so far do not appear to be stymieing the stress there with the zero covid policy, the ultimate success of that property market is property sales and when you have a policy of zero covid, it is argosy property sales rebounding any time soon, so short-term support measures might stabilize occasionally, but at the moment, we do not see a bottoming in that week cycle for property. yvonne: what does this mean for where you look at in terms of opportunities? are you adding duration? >> we thin

boj is in a bind. it needs probably more intervention.the move, but the reality is if the dollar keeps weakening. rishaad: it is not looking effective tax hikes. how does that move the needle, and should it move the needle for the boj and its stimulus? >> i think that is very important. i think core inflation -- you strip out food and energy, is moving higher, trending higher, and that also suggests it -- suggests that pressures are broadening, but again, it's suggest it is temporary and we still your forecasts of conditions coming lower into next year. i think the bank is focused on wages and real wages are still negative in japan. for that reason, i think bank of japan still believes it has patients to hold onto current policy settings. the reality is they want to see wages move higher before they even contemplate any change in policy, so that's why i think it is somewhat off before we see a shift in bank of japan. yvonne: maybe talk about which pair you think works in this environment right now. 150 for yen, 726 for offshore china. whe

basically it is not very long really given what we see with the boj sticking with its policy of easy settings and it's policy of yield curve control. that has not stopped international funds betting on a pivot at some stage. 10 year swap rates, that is a popular expression for the outlook for yields, 6.5%, an eight year high and well above the 2.6% line. we are looking at attorney markets. shery: we are already seeing signs of perhaps the turn in markets happening at least here in the u.s. after a $13 trillion stock crash. perhaps bearish bets and positioning are looking more muted right now and even bullish bets are increasing at this point with inflation hikes being priced in, perhaps the selloff has fleshed out both retail and institutional investors. suffice it to say traders are not exactly bullish, but there is a sense of exhaustion, isn't there? there was a low bar for high news -- for good news. that is what we are seeing in the equity space. haidi: there is the sense of exhaustion we come to just how much the chinese economy has endured under covid zero actually, but there w

john: i'm not sure what changes the equation for the boj to be honest.have cap a remarkably consistent message through all of this. the message seems to be they don't dislike yen weakness per se, they don't like excessive moves one way, we are on alert. they have shown they are willing to intervene and will at times, the last intervention lasted two days in terms of giving the dollar-yen rate at 145 at the time. u.s. yields continued to pressure higher. until they change, the dollar-yen pressure will be higher as long as u.s. long yields in particular are for percent or higher still. very near-term, the u.s. data will not provide much leeway for yields to fall, ergo dollar-yen pressure remains on the upside. the most interesting thing will be if the bank of japan is forced to blank before the interest rate cycle turns meaningfully. that is the timeline we are on with the bank of japan's leadership due to change next year. tom: 149 currently on the yen, just flirting with that level close to 150. as we look potentially to further intervention from the ban

japan is really the focus, we have the big boj decision later today. let's look at this terminal chart. no change expected in terms of yield curve control or policy settings in terms of rates. that's been something putting a lot of pressure on the yen, jgb's, taking look at how traders are positioning ahead of this decision. this chart looking at risk reversals, malign in white is the one-year basis, the line in blue is the one-euro equivalent. this gap tells us that traders are positioning perhaps for a shock policy. the other thing is it tells us we could see japan stepping in to support the currency, so an interesting decision for us to watch. we are also focusing on the ecb. kathleen: it's amazing how much a no decision at the boj meeting can get the markets on edge. the ecb is battling record inflation, up nearly 10% year-over-year. no surprise they double their key rate, 75 basis point hikes, two in a row now. the deposit rate is up to 1.5%, the highest level in a decade. all as advertised, but christine lagarde surprise the markets with a subtle

vonnie: boj governor kuroda has pledged to maintain monetary easing. he spoke at the annual meeting of the institute of international finance in washington where he defended boj policy, saying japan's inflation is different from the u.s. and europe. he said the central bank need to continue easing to secure its inflation target. he also reiterated his view that japan's recent currency intervention was appropriate. >> we continue our monetary easing in order to achieve 2% inflation target, or price stability target. the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, so we have to continue to hold the economy to recover. vonnie: the bank of england governor andrew bailey is under pressure to extend emergency guilt purchases, hours after promising to end it. the ble was forced to reiterate his ultimatum after the central bank had privately told bankers deadline could be extended. the confusion roil the market, weakening the pound and sending gilt yields higher. opec has slashes projections for the amount of crude it will need to pump by 440,000 barrels a

the rest of the global central banks hiking, the boj staying a common if.r-yen rallying, the japanese 10 year yield, jgb down about flat. 10-year yield in the u.s. up six basis points. that is acting as a headwind to stocks. investors in a bullish mood, they want this bear market rally to go on. alix: bear -- bank of america said it is a bear hug before u.s. stocks. let's get to data from this morning. u.s. pce showing signs of acceleration in september that reinforces the fed's tightening plans ahead of its november meeting. bloomberg survey showed economists expect interest rates to hit 5% and hip the u.s. and global economy into a recession. michael, great to see you. let's talk to the data today. dci was high, you had a strong, core pce. how does this set us up for the fed next week? michael: the data was in line with expectations. you got strong numbers. i think it keeps things where they were yesterday, which is, people are anticipating another 75 basis point hike. i think the fed tries to keep its choices open for december. my guess is, powell will s

and the boj is sticking with its fuel curve control program for now.orean yuan on a one-day basis is one of the few that is gaining today in asia against the greenback. we had seen it leading the losses in a previous session. certainly a lot of focus ahead of the be ok decision that could come within the hour. -- bok decision that could come within the hour. and the yuan is under pressure. shery: i almost forgot that we have the bok coming up anytime now. thank you for reminding me. there is so much happening. we are watching the british pound which we conduct a bank andrew bailey warned fund managers that they have until the end of the week to wind up fund decisions that they cannot maintain. this was before -- this is before the central bank halts monetary intervention. >> all the funds involved, you have got three days left. you have got to get this done. because part of the essence of financial stability intervention is that it is clearly temporary. shery: that puts pressure on the pound and other u.k. assets, falling below the 110 level. it paired

so there was intervention on part of the boj and the yen faltered.y went above and then faltered. there were buyers stepping in. the question the dollar. so we've done a couple dollar trades in the past. and i want to look at that again. the next chart is the u. up. we know, hearsay, hereto, up is up and down is down. and now we're falling back into it. i think the dollar will go to the lower band. this is the uup again. you see the sequences after a strong advance, you're getting move. and it reasserts itself and a new high and then again a counter trend. we're in a counter-trend move we have a lower dollar. >> take us through your trade. >> there are atfs that track the yen specifically. but the uup are the easier and better way to play it. about the reason or that is the uup will be a little tighter. the other thing that will affect the dollar relative to other currencies is what our central bank is doing what other central banks are doing. we know there is about a 75 hike point with near certainty for november. of course there, is a lot of conver

we saw the boj have to come in, support the japanese yen. the ecb is ready to put this further. that equilibrium? >> that is a major question. these interventions are temporary. the global economy is not clearing on its own. when you distort an economy for so long, is by definition problematic. if we don't, they will be more problematic. all of you looking for a pivot, be careful what you wish for. the journey is a very painful journey. rishaad: bloomberg opinion, must. let's have a look at the business flash headlines. credit suisse ceo asking investors to deliver a turnaround strategy, saying the bank is at a critical moment. [indiscernible] evaluating the potential for limitations of the hack. worldwide deliveries missing estimates, blaming challenges as it continues to ramp up production. it was a record number of cars delivered while falling shy that the market was expecting. haslinda: on the back of tesla missing delivery estimates [indiscernible] still to come. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service

. >> when the boj and japanese authorities insist on inflation at least in japan is transitory givennflation and deflation they faced, does this make sense, took a boat loose monetary policy going into the boj policy decision again? >> i think it does. while japan has the illusion of inflation, a lot of that is coming from the energy side and other transitory factors fundamentally. japan still has the headwind of very poor demographics pushing downward on inflation. the bank of japan needs to keep at it until they have firm signs inflation is back into positive territory. >> we know the government wants the boj to watch more carefully for the impact on the currency. do we see this tension building between governments, the central banks? is there a tug starting to play out in that relationship? >> i think that's absolutely true. governments and central banks collaborated during the pandemic to speed relief to recipients. now it's clear where central banks need to go. but governments want to stimulate, which will make the inflation problem worse. governments are now paying substantiall

even if by the year end, inflation could reach 3%, the boj expects it will get to 1.5% in 2023.that we cannot change the policy, it means that immediate inflation cannot be changed in the boj's policy. they also mentioned that wage growth, they hope to see that. but it is still very, very slow from the tracking of wage growth in the last 20 or 30 years. we cannot really expect a big change right now. haidi: great to have you with us. senior japanese economist at goldman sachs. let's get you to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: chicago fed president says policymakers need to reach a level where officials are cultural with housing. brainard says data is key with previous price increases working their way into the economy. >> in light of elevated global, economic and financial uncertainty, moving forward deliberately and in this manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment and inflation are adjusting to cumulative tightening in order to a form -- inform. vonnie: a global recession is more likely as inflation forces higher interest rates. imf's

but this move in the end is so extraordinary and so extraordinary and the reason part of it is the boj is paying no aettention to inflation and o mismatched on policy does that concern you. because people talk about yen and they talk about it in terms of policy failures an systemic and this is the stuff that frankly i think a lot of equity investors don't get a chance to look at every day. >> yes, you're right they have really struggled with managing the currency and also where inflation is at. and they're under a lot of stress because at the end of the day, yep is weak and bond yield is rising and so the bank of japan has a policy meeting next week an they need to take action i don't think they're ready to but if they really want to put a halt on this monve, they need to catch up with the other central banks. >> kathy, currency crisis is a term you're hearing more and more of. and the moves in developed market currencies are unprecedented. how close are we or are we in the midst of one now >> well, i think, you know, it is a cost for a lot of countries. and i think we are in a very se

i'm going to charge the vogtle system dumpster gesture boj, a partial orange croak. we're starting to live door after after was so sweet, no insurance, pollution. mm churchill wants to lead moscow. but star and invite him to his criminal apartment. the banquet last more than 7 hours and they begin to get along. if only i could dine with stalin once a week, it would be no trouble at all. november 1943 chair on the iranian capital. all 3 countries have embassies hair. it's the 1st big meeting of the big 3. stolen must they will not all still bar and she wants to provide you a story. touched you gotta meet telegraph. no serious. so must quit. most of what of my mom says peter wants confronted his. what i choice not close on up so much. double massage, can yonah inappropriate? no crania, don't stride. your grammar. morgan would be quite a little chauffeur on the american embassy is on the outskirts of the city. and due to a terrorist threats, roosevelt accepts an invitation to settle in the soviet embassy where the meetings are also held. churchill attends by walking alo

that is why the intervention from the boj is coming outside of the japanese trading. tom: it is completely clumsy and comes back to court theory and some people can -- core theory and it comes back to that. what is absolutely critical is everyone is looking at liquidity and the ois in place and spiking up and write at the moving average from the pandemic level. jonathan: maybe it is boring now relative to what we have seen over the last few months. coming up jean boivin from blackrock. looking forward to that conversation. live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with the first word. in the u.k., rishi sunak spent the summer predicting that liz truss would trash the u.k. if she becomes prime minister, and now his job is to fix it. he is meeting with prince charles to formally replace her. bloomberg has learned that adidas plans to end the partnership with kanye west. he has made controversial statements, including anti-semitic posts on social media and that has turned his line into a lightning rod for criticism. it has acco

i'm glad chung broad little sister dumpster gesture boj, a partial star orange kirk where starting to live door after after was so sweet. no insurance, pollution. mm. chunks hill wants to leave moscow but stop and invite him to his criminal apartment. the banquet laws more than 7 hours, and they begin to get along. if only i could dine with stone and once a week, it would be no trouble at all. november 1943. chair on the iranian capital. all 3 countries have embassies hair. it's the 1st big meeting of the big 3 stolen must. they will not don't to bar judy and said provide your story touched you got to meet to the graph. no sirius, so must quit poster with my me of a says, can your months california does what i choice nar class hung up so much, double massage, or in yonah inappropriate. no crania dose to read yoga rama more would be the white little chauffeur on the american embassy is on the outskirts of the city. and due to a terrorist threats, roosevelt accepts an invitation to settle in the soviet embassy where the meetings are also held. churchill attends by walking along that cov

gdp coming thursday and finally a host of great decisions -- great to decisions including the ecb and bojclose out the week friday area still with us happy to say vishwanath tirupattur, rob waldner, and meghan graper. i want to go straight to the rapidfire peer die when ask a little bit more open-ended questions but they are really quick answers please. the first one, where are fed funds rates at the end of 2024? meghan: close to 5%. lisa: rob? rob: 3%. lisa: vishy? vishwanath: 4.5%. lisa: when does qt in the united states stop? vishwanath: third or fourth quarter of next year. rob: and of 2024. meghan: and of the first half. lisa: when does the first fed rate cuts,? rob: third quarter 2023. meghan: last three meetings of next year. vishwanath: end of 2023. lisa: thank you to all of you, vishwanath tirupattur, rob waldner, meghan graper. this is a tremendous moment because we are looking at deals that finally israel. in some capacity or another. all of a sudden treasuries are an alternative and as we heard there is a real on warring of some of the yield moves from a sense of what is drivi

so there was intervention on the part of the boj, and you can see the yen faltered it briefly went abovethere were buyers stepping in for the yen. the question is the dollar we have done a couple dollar trades in the past and i want to look at that again the next chart is the u, p, which is an etf of investco that tracks the index we know up is up, up is strong, dollar strength. we went up through the top of channel, very well-defined channel. those are mathematically parallel lines and now we've fallen back into it. there's another way to draw the line's final chart this is basically the uup again, but you see here the sequencing. after a strong advance you get a counter trend and reasserts itself to a new high we're in the process of a counter trend and i don't think it's over, so we're playing for lower dollar >> all right, carter is looking at the counter trend moves mike, you're looking at this move in the yen for a way to play this u.s. dollar. take us through your trade >> there are etfs that track the yen specifically but i think uup options are probably an easier and better way

boj has to come in we talk about this all the time, the volatility in currency and rates is scary, but it's what moved the markets today. what's going to rally in a world where rates are coming down? i think the mega cap tech stocks are in a place to do that. next week's earnings are critical, but they're not what's driving this market. and to me, this was a week where, if anything, fed speak had people give -- led to more of a debate about, okay, 75 in november for sure, but maybe only 50 in december. and what i'm hearing out of a handful of fed members is they really do want to wait. >> got earnings next week. that's for the quarter we have race declining, how is that going to change the amazon story? the meta story their business comes from consumer spend bug people are still buying toilet paper and speakers they were always going to buy. >> i'm talk about how people participate in the stock market. rates are peaking what stocks do you want to allocate to, go to mega cap stocks that are going to be defensive. none of those big five told us their business is under pressure a view on

an unsustainable path for the boj to remain on.onathan: you said that is lower, this is smoke coming off the bomb. about $40 billion worth at this point. it is ridiculous. we want to look at sterling as well, 113 18, rishi sunak, the former chancellor is getting public endorsement in the u.k.. we've been tracking them at bloomberg news. we verify public statements from more than half of the tory mp's. tom: this was at 9:00 a.m. our time. jonathan: perhaps we get a prime minister. tom: we change the language. jonathan: they change the language. yes. i -- the markets want to move on quickly. you mentioned one of liz truss, what is the next come from? is that a change in leadership for the boj that is set to take place anyway? what is it? christopher: i think that is a good place to start. we wrote something to the effect in february or march that the boj was going to have its 1992 boe type event. i also think the boe have another boe 92 type event but that is what happened over the last several weeks. i think ultimately this is headi

are traders expecting further intervention with the boj, and will it be enough? marcus: i think for a lot of strategists out there, the view is japanese authorities are basically coming to slow depreciation and calm the markets but they do not have a line in the sand. there has been if you for much of the past few weeks as we approach the 150 level, there's an increasing chapter in the market that japanese households are being affected. dollar-yen has risen by 20% this year. so as japanese households get squeezed, it's time that japanese officials weigh these considerations. there could be an increasing chapter that it could be a line in the sand. rishaad: having a look at sterling, it's marginally higher, the 112 handle, up about .5%. but there are some hurdles. we have this u-turn, and on top of that, what does that bring? does it bring stability with a prime minister that has been roundly discredited? marcus: roundly discredited, i love the use of that term. one of the biggest support for the pound and gilts was boe, and that's effectively ended as of last fri

the boj also announced unscheduled bond buying here. 10 jgb breaching above that once again. going on there. rishaad: if you are long, you are wrong. let's get your first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. bonnie: president biden says u.s. oil producers should not be returning record profits to shareholders via higher share buybacks. they are stepping up criticism of the energy industry. the war wages on in ukraine. the president called for oil companies to use profits to boost production and help bring down fuel prices for consumers. >> we need to responsibly increase american oil production without delaying or deferring our transaction to clean energy. my message to the american energy companies is this. you should not be using your profits to buy back stock or dividends, not now. not while a war is raging. you should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining. vonnie: australian employment stalled in september while the jobless rate held steady. that reinforces the decision to slow the pace of policy tightening. implement advanced by 9

we saw the boj in the last week having to come in and stuff it into the fx market to support the japanesethey had to set up an instrument on italian euros to raise rates even further. china has been wanting investors that they need to step in. who is next? who is willing to blink and can we get to that equilibrium? >> that is the major question. these interventions are unclear to be temporary. these are just band-aids. it tells you the global economy is unclear. there will be a lot of collateral damage. when you distort an economy for so long, getting out of the distortion is by definition problematic. that is what we are learning. we had no choice to get out of distortion because if we don't, the inflation is going to be even more problematic. all of you who are looking for a pivot, be careful what you wish for. this pivot only happens if you have an economic or financial accident. that was the bloomberg opinion economist talking about what japan came out with in terms of their intervention. that is the update their. broad dollar weakness. a doll in double digits, we are back to these le

the boj could pivot or hike by 50 basis points next week but certainly, this is the overarching theme across the market space. we are -- a lot of anticipation building that we could see central banks turning less hawkish and the rba was one of the ones to keep this up yesterday with a 25 basis point hike which was not productive by most economists who had been expecting the fifth straight half-point move. we saw that big rally from wall street so positive in here. we have seen the asx 200 higher for a second session at the start of trade, tracking moves we are seeing in bond yields this morning. the three year dropped by the most in 14 years. look across the border landscape. quibi stocks trading to the upside. chicago nikkei futures little bit more negative but they did close previously in positive territory so expecting the market to open higher. we did see the dollar retreating. the kiwi dollar looking a little bit more sanguine so a lot of expectation around the rbnz decision later. will they follow what they had from the rba? shery: if they don't, a hawkish surprise. we will be w

feels like you're in a world where the boj's handling the rays curve and the government is happening with the yen. can they coexist at the same time? i don't know. guy: one of the things we watching for. the eu has announced a new emergency plan to deal with the energy crisis. here's what european commission president ursula von der leyen said a little bit earlier. >> we are cutting demand. we have seen now we have been saving gas 50% over the overall demand in september. we have been filling our gas storage is. we are now at 92%. we have been intensively diversifying away from russia toward reliable suppliers. one figure shows by now the russian share of imported pipeline gas is down to 9%, so more or less, two thirds of the russian sub light has been cut. guy: let's talk more about this most of joining us now, maria, run us the details of what was confirmed today. maria, this is the big intervention she promised to now we have it on paper. she says european storage is 92% full to capacity. this is well ahead of target. that was the idea to get to 100% but it does seem they will acc

we have seen the boj intervene in the markets.of course, the australian central bank becoming the first major to brace for rate increases. surprising a lot of the market on tuesday. new zealand central bank is poised to raise another .5 -- half a percentage point. our economist joins us from auckland. this chart takes a look at the basis points expected and that would take 3.5% for the cash rate. this is matching the high we saw in the global financial crisis. we talk about australia as a reason for being able to maintain a looser stance, being that it is more open, more openly traded economy as opposed to domestic. does the same not go for the rbnz given there is an argument that this may be the peak? >> it will have a lot of different centers when it comes to what is going on, looking at a range of data. it does show the higher interest rates are heading into demand. cost and price increases starting to moderate. inflation pressures still remain very intense. further interest rate increases will be required over the coming year.

michelle will break down action from the boj to the ecb. annabelle takes a look at asian markets. manus: elon musk completed the $44 billion take over at twitter. amazon and apple -- amazon battered by 20%. matt is with us on tech watch. what a story on twitter. read headlines are coming in fastest morning. if we reflect on broader tech, i think it is a big warning shock about the quarter to come. >> i think you are right. i think the results were quite similar. it was 15% between 2% and 8% in the holiday quarter. really anticipating a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. quite a gloomy outlook. dani: back to twitter. i am trying to look at some headlines here. a shakeup of management. how should we view all this? >> we have not had official confirmation that the deal has closed. he is planning to take the helm. i think it was a big surprise. he is planning on being the personal project for sometime time now. whether that means he will insert -- and reinstate people immediately, we will have to wait and see. dani: i do not doubt that. thank you for joining us. from a tech to the e

same time, you are seeing record weakness in the japanese yen and the doj intervening last friday -- boj intervening last friday. tom: when you have a major shock to the economy, investors look for a way to express their view on it. living in the sense in which movements in china tech stocks coming in the hong kong equity market, in the one -- yuan, are all being driven by that covid factor and the visceral reaction to the lineup leaders and party congress and what that means for risk views on china. at the same time, there are global factors which are losing all exchange rates -- the stronger dollar, driven by the fact, is a factor is pushing both the chinese yuan and three japanese yen downwards. coming back to add -- ed's comment about covid 0, 1 interesting thing we see in the new leadership lineup is that the guy who runs shanghai has emerged as china's new permit or, the number two on the standing committee. shanghai was the city at the center of china's covid lockdowns this year, the two-month lockdown hammered consumption and production at some of the biggest companies. reading t

cut rates aggressively in the short-term because we have seen what happens, for instance, when the boj rates when the rest of the world remains hawkish. it obviously does not lay out very well. -- play out very well. rishaad: tell us about the u.s. federal reserve and its relation to other parts of the world. >> i think the fed really is on a hawkish trajectory. if you look at what happened in the wake of u.s. inflation data, pricing -- markets are pricing in more than a 75 basis point hike in november and december as well, i think they have a sickly pushed up the rate somewhat closer to 4.8%, 4.9%. i think the chances of an overshoot by the fed in terms of rates is still possible because inflation has proven to be very sticky on the upside, but the it is still trying to pencil in the possibility of a rate cut by next year -- the fed is still trying to pencil in the possibility of a rate cut by the end of next year. yvonne: what does that mean for bonds' yields and direction? is there value on the treasury curve? some are saying there's opportunities now, given where yields have. where

people will talk about if can the ministry of finance and boj work in opposition as we approach that critical level? guy: we are assuming it is critical for them. that is the big question. is it going to be critical? are they going to react? i think people that they would. let's talk about the turbulence in the u.k.. it continues at a slightly lower level. the u.k. prime minister liz truss showed up earlier for the first time since the major reversal of the economic program. it was heated in the house today. it was kicked off by the labour party leader as truss battles to save her job. >> two-year energy freeze gone. tax-free shopping gone. economic ability gone. and her supposed best friend, the former chancellor, he is gone, as well. they are all gone! so why is she still here? >> mr. speaker. mr. speaker. i am a fighter, not a quitter. i have acted in the national interest to make sure that we have economic stability. guy: here's tom or, liz truss -- liz truss in the house of commons earlier on. i think i heard that phrase before, peter mendelson. joining us, lizzy burden. one of