is there anything the boj can do? does it matter with the boj does? thomas: if they shift away from negative interest rate policy that will have a big impact in japanese equities but longer-term investment is clear. investors like it. anytime we see a pullback we think investors will move in and local investors and foreign investors as well. the difference with boj is more for investing in yen as opposed to hedge exposure because the 150 level, the boj will do nothing and moving forward you could get up to 155 but if you are a long-term investor, investing in yen makes sense. yvonne: we had a guest that talked about before it was easy to buy banks and energy. is this a regime change that there are pockets of value in japan more so than before. >> we are writing a piece talking about phase one which is investors moving to neutral. let's not forget from 2018, foreign investors were selling equities so the first phase is brought exposure. topics is the one most of us have preferred because it is sensitive to depreciation. where the sectors which would be

the boj and p.m.rt is out and after seeing governor ueda's speech at the press conference, of course jgb's i think will be sold across the curve. especially the 10 year will be sold. at the same time, they will still have to buy the 10 year bond to calm down the speed at which yields rise. i think it is going to evolve for a while until, say, the next 10 year option. in november. otherwise it is going to be stable. >> where do you think the equities rally goes from here? we will see a lift when it comes to financials. that is playing out in the early part of the session. has the exuberance been taken out of the rally? shoki: equities is not my thing. i cannot really comment on the specifics. but as you said, i think financials will gain from higher yields. especially 10 year. that is for the major banks. in terms of -- will benefit from higher yields. >> let's get you back to annabelle for those movers. we talked about the financials just now. >> that is right. as you said, it is the outperformer so f

that the boj just three months ago had said would not be reached. that is the 1% mark. so it was in a tight spot and needed to do something. we saw a report come out overnight suggesting they will allow yields to go above the 1% mark, and if you score the reaction of last night we saw the yen strengthening, which is the reaction you would expect from that move. but when the actual decision dropped today, what we saw was disappointment. the optics of looking at something that looks very similar, say everything that investors took, the way it was explained and worded in the statement, less convincing, less bullish unchanged to come than my had been expected. -- might have been expected. what we have is a halfhearted step in either direction of normalization. it is like a move to biotime. -- buy time. the boj logically wants to wait until spring, see the data moving out of march. the most sensible timing you would expect for it to scrap its negative interest rates and start to normalize policy. so this is a way of buying time for that by just easing so

the boj at its back [indiscernible] therefore the boj gets more confidence to restrain the yields. yvonne: given what we have been seeing, is eight getting harder for the boj politically speaking to defend their economic policies? >> not clearly sure. what i took away from september's meeting is boj's take on stimulus policy and steer clear away from fx. at the same time, raising the volume about the intervention so therefore i think both the boj flexing muscle on yields and the minister of finance flux and on yen, so intervention from both sides and therefore the market is getting jittery. that is the balance the boj wants to continue and i think they will keep stimulus because the economy is weak. yvonne: thank you, taro kimura, bloomberg japan economist, with the latest on what we could be hearing here. we continue to see another day of selloff when it comes to fixed income or let's bring in our guests, omar slim from pinebridge investments. always good to have you on the day like today. given the price action, the selloff in bonds has been relentless. does it have further to go

the boj.alive. most of saying no change but the boj could surprise us. let's take a look at where we are in terms of asset classes. stocks under pressure. new k to 25 down. toyota the biggest laggards. keeping a watch on the outlook for earnings for japanese companies, hsi down 6/10 of 1%, evergrande slumping as much as 22% on liquidation concerns but it was delaying a decision and has eased up. in the fx space we have the dollar weaker but still a strong dollar environment. well supported. aussie dollar supported up 3/10 of 1%. you on gaining. in the bond market the most moves. 10 year yields hitting and the question is whether we will get there again and if it will stay at the level. under pressure for australian bonds as well as japanese jgb as well. rishaad: absolutely let's have a look at what we have, once have a look at the open and see if it's following the region. it is down. and well and little bit of strength. futures in india predicting a fallback. the ruby approaching record lows

thinks the boj will announce changes in its policy next week. >> we're expecting the boj to raise theong-term ten-year yield target from current around 0% to 0.5%. at the same time the boj had a cap of the ten-year yield of 1.0% up to it's going to be raised, and boj pub lged the report which present the board member's view on economy and inflation. and we believe that their assessment of underlying inflation has risen from since july last time and second is the market ten-year yield has risen. the actual market is higher than 0.8% so it's better to align and also raising the cap from 1.0 to 1.5. but he says departing from its policy rate would be a momentous shift. the boj will need a very strong rationale. he sees such an increase will probably come in april next year given the likely flow of events. >> once the boj can confirm the spring rate negotiation outcome by middle of march. and second point is april 2024 is the timing of the boj board members present the latest report which includes the gdp and cpi forecast through fiscal year 2026. and i think this is better for the boj to

the boj has been a dovish outlier all this time. if they do tweak the ycc, that will not dramatically change their overall place in that story. vonnie: traders have been wagering on young volatility even if nothing changes tonight. we are at 149.05. how much could be tolerated by the authorities? enda: i think the authorities certainly have wiggle room for seeing the yen perhaps move up somewhat. i think the authorities in tokyo have been consistent that there point is they do not want volatile trading. that is when the reserve the right to step into intervene. i don't think they would necessarily be too dismissive of some strengthening in the end. but we have to see what kind of decision comes out of this meeting. because as i say, the domestic inflation story in japan has not changed dramatically. what is changing is the big surge in u.s. yields spilling over globally, spilling into japanese yields, costing the boj a lot of money, and that is why there is a view now that they are under pressure to treat -- tweak the policy. and ni

guy: the boj has never been afraid -- it could be that. but the boj has never been afraid to shock. the fed tries to manage the market. the boj has never really been in that game. the reporting from nikkei has generally been pretty much on the money. it is there reporting, not ours. if they are trying to soften the market before tonight announcement, it would be significant, and this would be one of the ways in which they would do that. it is already something the market will pay a great deal of attention to. we talk a lot about the supplied, the refinancing, the story coming from treasury. my question is what about the demand? the biggest buyers are out of the market, potentially. you could see japanese buyers withdrawing further from the treasury market. you have qt ongoing. that is a huge price agnostic buyer. we talk about supply, but isn't the story hear, do you want to buy the market, at what price? is it lower than where we are now? edward: price agnostic was the key term in what you just asked. ultimately, all the price agnostic buyers are out of the market, and as a result

vonnie: i have to ask about the boj meeting.ral bank where you might get movement this week your it are you anticipating anything to do with the tweaking of policies? >> whether they actually take action i think is a question mark, but i believe they might go further in that direction and take more steps last year -- next year possibly. even though when we come to the yen, the big investment implication, probably the boj is not really the moving element of the two sides. it is still probably the dollar, therefore what happens in the u.s., we get payroll on friday, so we will see if we get a lead from that. other than that, i think it's likely the boj is moving. maybe into next year, the yen could have quite some upside. vonnie: upside is in strength? >> strength, yes, in the sense of we are looking for 140. but when the move usually happens on the yen it happens without warning and very quickly. it is certainly a place i would point out to investors to look at and be ready. vonnie: thank you very much, hartmut issel, head of apa

divisions within the boj are growing. shares of the public arm of foxconn dropping the most in more than three months after beijing launches investigations into its chinese operations. i want to bring you breaking news. phillips reporting third-quarter earnings, adjusted ebita 457 million. good numbers, they are also raising full-year sales and the adjusted ebita outlook. how much growth is coming from their chinese arm? how much is international? versus how much is from right here in europe? we are going to have an interview with the ceo coming up. in the meantime let's get a quick check on the data. i want to show you with the futures market is doing. you are seeing mixed movement. talking about the broader markets, you need to talk about whether risk sentiment is active. we have geopolitical risk, monetary policy risk, and a little more defensive positioning when it comes to u.s. futures specifically. euro stoxx 50 futures mostly unchanged, ftse 100 futures lagging. the defense -- i would call this a little bit of pric

>> i certainly think the boj can step in.it is clear that markets are waiting for the bank to tighten. they just aren't ready to do anything significant. i think we will get to the point where we see that, and that will change the dynamic. we have to recognize it is a two way street. it is not just about the yen, it is also about the dollar so when we have clarity on fed policy, when we know the fed is at the end of the rate hike cycle, which is not clear right now although i do believe they are at the end, then i believe we will see weakening in u.s. shery: we have seen the rally and fast gains in treasury yields spooking markets. even fed officials talked about how that might merit less tightening, given financial conditions. when we see the boj move, how much of an impact will this have on yields across the world? >> that is a great question. this remains to be seen because it will be dependent on a lot of other factors. when we go to the long end of the curve, there is so much that is moving it. in particular in the u.s.,

-- the boj?> i personally think our firm does not have a quantitative point on this but i personally think the industry of finance and it is the ministry that makes the decision. not the bank of japan. i think they are pretty dead set against the yen getting weaker than 150. i think they will intervene in large fashion if it gets to 150. it might not completely stop the yen depreciation but i think it will make a positive effect on preventing excessive yen weakness. rishaad: the three of us talk to you on february 13. this was before ueda came in. you described him as pragmatic and he could communicate with the market smoothly. do you stand by that assessment given the remarks he made which sent everything into a tailspin and he did nothing at the last meeting? >> coming up on i think those comments -- >> i think those comments were taken out of context to the bank of japan came out and said they were taken out of context. everyone is looking for a reading between the lines. they are all used to

so the stakes are higher for the boj.ven if they come and intervene at 150, is going to prove to be quite less. -- it's going to prove to be fruitless. yvonne: treasury yields are heading back south. the markets heading south. dollar taking a backseat. how long do you think that will last, mary? mary: temporary. you have the fed coming up next week. the fed, in order to turn market , will have to come in -- but they will not say anything different than what we heard from powell back in october 19. so they will be quite disappointed, and obviously yesterday's gdp numbers are showing resilience in the u.s. economy still there. then, of course, you have payroll numbers coming in next week. as long as the u.s. economy continues to show its resilience, the dollar will remain quite strong, u.s. treasuries will remain quite strong, and you will have be ts of every session coming down substantially. all of this field into a higher yield narrative and a stronger dollar narrative as well. yvonne: thank you, mary nicola, bloomberg's

but the boj is not.a was out last week saying they need to stay patient with easing policies until they are sure that inflation has sustainably reached their 2% target. it is currently running at 3% plus or something like that. they don't trust that there is going to stay there. as long as the boj is going to stick with that, that you are going to have a week in -- a weak yen. the difficulty is how you go from the current policy set up to a less easy one without running the risk that you get a bond selloff or you get a sudden surge in an which would also cause problems -- a sudden surge in the yen which would cause problems. the boj would really like it if the u.s. economy could stop being so strong so that u.s. yields become down, because that's their only easy way out of this difficulty. paul: our chief rates correspondent and mliv contributor gah food mile is there. you can find more on this story and all the days story on the markets like log, on bloomberg, it is mliv . then you can get a market

we have also questions about the boj.questions about the boj and the yen as well. we saw a little 50 level being breached and does that flag high intervention risk? we shall see. the beds are being placed on with a negative policy rate, extraordinary subzero rates come to an end. the latest mliv pulse survey of over 300 survey participants saying that 51%, a majority say the first half of 2024 is when we will see the negative rates end. about a quarter people say could be sooner in december. 8% saying at the next meeting. the question has applications. is it likely to bring significant volatility when it comes to bond markets? the largest portion of that response, 61% seeing a reverberation through world markets with the biggest consequence being seen in terms of what we potentially see for u.s. treasuries. rishaad: we are also looking at asset classes which are likely to suffer the most from the jgb yields going up and normalization of monetary policy. we had a guest suggesting it could be the butterfly effect, affecting

we had the boj decision yesterday in the session. the key take away is that the boj is allowing greater flexibility for jgb yields can trade. we are increasing that upper limit to 1%. the market reactions were quite interesting because that could've been something that would've given further strength into the japanese yen. a local media we had the reporting coming through, we had seen trading down to the 149 mark. now, we are trading around a fresh year to date low against the greenback, above that 151 mark. again, what is that telus, traders and investors are saying the boj needs to do more. that this step toward any sort of normalization, there is a rationale for the boj to really consider further exiting away from its current policy settings. that's a state of play for the japanese yen. the change and take a look at where we are seeing equities trading across the station. when you go over the futures market, it's looking fairly mixed in the session. you have japanese wands looking to come online flat. china to gains as is australi

that begs the question, what is the level of tolerance now for the boj?they come back in with these unexpected -- with these unexpected bond buying operations where does that leave the yen? garfield: the yen probably has a little relief that the dollar has taken a breather from its relentless rise against other currencies. with that pullback in bond yields the revival in risk sentiment. short-term, the yen can probably cope with the boj stepping into the bond market. but in the longer-term or medium-term, about all you can look at when it comes to whether -- where the boj is, because, it is so stuck in a trap of its own making, the outlook for the yen still looks pretty concerning unless they are seriously going to move towards this some of these extremely easy policies. the difficulty the boj faces is that they have also been kind of complacent. it seems they have not really had a great plan for, what do we do if u.s. yields, if other yokes keep rising? because, that puts pressure on japanese yields to rise. it puts pressure on the end of fall if the --

what will that -- dani: what will that do for the boj?the wider the gap between jgb's and treasuries, which means more pressure on the yen to weaken. i am more focused on fx intervention rather than the bond buying operations as we are getting close to the 150 handle in dollar-yen. dani: 149.65 is where we are at. thank you, valerie. i want to get into another reason perhaps for my pessimism, something bloomberg economics has been talking about, cracked in the consumer. this is from the pce data on friday, personal savings as a percentof disposable income. it has dropped. i should give a h tip to valerie for this, she made this chart. you can see the huge come down in personal savings since the peak and covid and it is very steep, much deeper than 2021. if the american consumer is the backbone of this economy, that is bad news. bad news for any hope of a soft landing. bloomberg economics also estimates 80% of americansnow have less money than they did before covid. it is the poorest 80% that have less cash on hand. again, if you are looki

to 20, and the boj ended up doing exactly that in december 2022.lready left the board now, but it is certainly worth paying attention to what he is saying. rishaad: absolutely. he's got a bit of form. the logic here, what is behind it? saying negative rates would be less impactful than raising the ceiling on 10-year yields, for instance? >> right. what he is saying is a little surprising. it is not the existing market consensus view here. he is saying basically that the boj is likely to scrap negative deals before it does anything to the y cc. his logic behind that is that in his view, real interest rates have fallen so much, at its lowest since 2016, that even if you scrap negative rates, it will not have that much of an impact on the real economy, so that is his view. he also says that because negative rates only impact a certain amount of commercial banks' accounts with the boj, it does not have that much of an impact on the real economy. compare that to raising the ceiling on 10-year yields, and he is arguing that that could have much more of a

do some of the work for the boj because it will narrow the interest rate between u.s.nd support the japanese currency. the other thing we should be on watch for is what happens with that 150 level on the flip side, if there is no intervention and it doesn't get a list from the fed, once the 150 level goes, the anchor goes and it could be in free fall watch what happens with the fed and ministry of finance here in tokyo. back to you. >> martin soong outside the bank of japan thank you. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know and why bob pisani says oversold october and interest rates is setting up for an impressive november >>> if you miss us, check us out on your favorite podcast app more "wex" coming up after this. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that

it is one thing to surprise the market with boj policies they did at the end of last year. but it is another thing to entertain that kind of movement and make conditions even worse for themselves. i think they will be highly reluctant and we'll push back on that, unless there were some significant deterioration in circumstances where u.s. yields went significantly higher and they had no recourse otherwise. for the time being, they would not want that on the table. rishaad: just wanted to get your thoughts on the euro into sterling, with andrew bailey saying that the job is not done when it comes to fighting inflation. claudio: yeah, to some degree that is true, although i think overall globally what we are seeing is some of that dynamics still ebbing. the u.k. has had its hard-earned circumstances, so to speak, but in a certain sense, we have seen the worst is over for sterling and the lows we saw previously, so we are likely to see some sterling crawl and recover back slowly. i sense that the concern we had previously to sterling is less than it was previously. on euro-dol

it's going to take more action from the boj to spark a reversal considering the strong u.s. market analyst at capital.com. will continue to see more -- we continue to see more strength for the biggest ipo and south korea. doosan robotics, gaining ground. more than 100%. trading at the 60,000 level afte having really priced it at the 26,000 level a piece. -- apiece. a lot of demand outthere for doosan robotics which deals with collaborative robots. let's get more from our asia tech reporter. the broader market is up. but that does not justify the 130% spike in the market debut. why is the stock so popular? >> hi. yeah, there's a lot of excitement over this company. generally in the robotics industry in korea. before this ipo, there was a smaller rival called rainbow robotics. it is backed by electronics and a lot of investors have bid for the company and the stock has gone up 350% this year. the company is obviously smaller and providing a smaller scale of business. they are quite big in terms of market cap. people see an opportunity for huge growth in doosan robotics in kore

the boj came in. boj is next week, two, next week and then december 17. dollar weakness. the prescription is to what pertained for equity markets. we are ending the holiday. thailand at this hour, 0.5% . weakness in the thai baht. the asia-pacific benchmark is right now unchanged. 151.6 four. four days a weakness. we will see how this ends. mark cranfield is joining us to talk about everything we have seen. mark, tell us where your head is right now. he had weakness in the equity market overnight and the s&p. you had the web server in the 10-year yield. what do you make of the session so far since that point in time? mark: we are getting the same erratic trading recital yesterday. we saw a huge range in treasury yields something we have been seeing frequently in the past 18 months or so, big swings between highs and lows. yield and a bit lower on the day. you would think that would give optimism to equity markets, but the same erratic behavior we're seeing here, obviously in this part of the world, will be dependent on whether outlook is for china. and so far, the etf bit

there are a number of things in the minds of boj policymakers. their meeting today. first among their concerns is of course price control. inflation has been above the boj's target for some time now and the latest indicator, the core consumer index for the japanese capital, it showed price rises accelerated in tokyo. this creates the expectation that policymakers might start raising bowler dr mcmullen cost in the short term. no rush to do so. another source of pressure for the change has been the yen — the widening gap in monetary policies between the boj and other major central banks around the world has caused quite a bit of instability and currency markets. japanese currency has been moving between 140 8— 150 to the dollar. that's pretty close to a more than three — decade low. may start more volatility stopping the boj is sort of working a tightrope here between maintaining stimulus in order to continue pepping up stimulus in order to continue popping up economic growth or really changing tack in order to address rising prices and protect let

does the boj not mind? guy: next week will be a big week. the fed, boe. you have to think about japan. the earnings story will continue. how ugly are earnings? this brings everything home. this is a sales story. top line. half of all companies reporting in europe have missed on the top line. one third have beaten. 18% have matched. half have missed the top line. that is where the trouble starts. companies are struggling to deal with the middle in the inflationary environment. you get a week topline, you are struggling in the middle, you have a problem at the bottom. alix: estimates are low for european equities. ok. they will beat. that's not happening. they are getting punished. how ugly earnings? -- how ugly are earnings? guys, thank you. how ugly are earnings? >> technically, it's not that bad. earnings growth beat in europe and u.s. the reason it feels bad is we have had big downside reactions this year and i think what this shows if you look at world line, alphabet, tesla, investors are jittery and sensitive to any signs things may not be as good as

boj is meeting one day before the fed, remember., according to expectations, the fed does nothing and the comments are not hawkish, we should watch the jgb at 95 odd basis points the highest it has been in ten years. if it goes higher, that would narrow the interest rate difference between u.s. rates and japanese rates in japan's favor. it would also help to support the yen. in other words, intervention may not be necessary we'll have to watch what happens during your hours and u.s. trading hours. back to you. >> marty, thank you very much. you deserve -- i don't know if you are doing "worldwide exchange" next, but i hope you relax. you pulled a massive shift thank you. >>> republican presidential candidates are set to clash in florida in over a week among the points of contention, candidates hit out at esg policies as state legislatures introduce more than 165 anti-esg laws this year alone according to a report. let's get an expert view on this partner at hogan levels and former attorney general in washington, d.c. nice to join us.

economy was stronger than the boj expected and u.s.rm yield was higher than boj expected, so the level of u.s. long-term yield, it is difficult for boj to keep long-term yield around 0.5%. they adjusted control and expanded range from 0.5 21%. the range, it is easy to maintain. we can expect boj will continue current level of range until 2025. shery: 2025 -- until then, is there any hope for the japanese yen? could perhaps the fed cutting rates next year offset the huge rate differentials that we will continue to see? >> yes. fed rate cuts very important. japan has to wait until fed rate cut to stop weakening the yen. until then, we think ministry of finance will keep saying if it is ready. shery: will they need to intervene? >> it depends on the u.s. story. if u.s. yields are higher than 5%, dollar-yen will climb above 150. we expect them to intervene. we expect the current level of u.s. long-term yield is the peak level and next year, along with cutting rates, we expect u.s. long-term yields to go down. we think weakening and pressur

we have the boj this week, the fed, the boe, not to mention corporate earnings, apple later this week, a slew of bank earnings. now a lot of that is going to feed into the sentiment which is why there is investor caution right now when it comes to the volume trade. ftse 100 futures higher by 0.2%. a bit of a defensive bid for nasdaq 100 futures. that is pretty normal ahead of the slow central bank decisions. a lot of fund flow exiting asia. exiting europe as well. where do you park your cash when you do not know where to put it? american assets to be the answer. you have to look cross asset. where stocks are seeing broad flow, bonds are not. look at the 10 year yield higher by three basis points. what is interesting is that is going to feed into the fx story as well. euro-dollar at 105. as we get more out of the central banks, the question of euro-dollar parity is back on the table, virtually unchanged but it is the biggest contributor to the bloomberg dollar index. boj decision tomorrow, a lot of cross currency, we are going to get an update of asia but dollar-yen, 14964 is where we

we had an interview with the former boj policymaker saying that the boj could monitor yied your -- incurguidance weeks andelete the pledge to each other if the same. those of the highlights. we will be speaking with mliv on bloomberg television in a couple of hours from now. we will be, getting the outlook for the boj, with waitstaff that as bn coming through. wehae that softness still comig hrough into the waitress growth, and drill wages are other watch for us because those are si in the negative territory, down two point 75%, making for a contraction of 2.1% on real cap -- cash earnings here in here. let's look at korea at the start of trade, day to action for dusan robotics, we are looking at a bit of a weaker day, but that stock closed at 96% higher on its trading debut in saw yesterday, shares have been priced at the upper end of the range at 26,000 apiece, and we are dealing with that -- double that at this point of the d. we look at the kospi and its firmer, but we expect range from trading throughout the course of the session. the korean wo fimer against the greenback dollars so

will that fade depending on boj policy?he bank of japan's ongoing policy errors which have needlessly weekend japanese currency and weakened the nation's purchasing power. also invited imported inflation of the country, so there are many aspects for why the policies are just wrong. look at yield differentials in the fact that bank of and is conceding that inflation could go down but will start picking up again. that is the new narrative that they introduced over the last few weeks and the other thing they said on friday as they're looking at credit unions and asking them to prepare for rising interest rates and risk management read all the indications are that bank of japan has. inflation wrong and they are trying to create an offramp. how much have exporters benefited and how much will that dissipate? the weaker yen has masked what has been going on in volume. volume of exports. we're seeing that in electronics. and recovering from its shoes because of the chip shortages of the last few years, that is actually playing out

the boj will have to rock. when it happens, will the boj finally steps in will it be shock and all.ne: the market is not of the view that the bod will not enter negative interest rates until 2024. for now, how much flexibility last december, we had movement in july and this is the third movement and did disappointed a lot of people. they will probably carry on but to some extent the pace at which they do that could be covered by the dollar-yen and governed by the pace of u.s. fields -- yields. that could put pressure on bank of japan to intervene. if they do not get back to 5% to give some breathing room. this is all about timing but it is a reason they rejected sustainability. alix: they don't think yields are going to go above 1% or two. the fact that the boj ok with a weaker dollar yen? jane: he has to say that. because then it would be there in a flash. he has to speak in those terms. in terms of dollar-yen, at this point it depends on various factors of one of those is where is the pressure right now? we had a lot of heightened quality prices. they have to bring in those commod

it comes as a former boj board member. may scrap negative rates by the end of this year. let's bring in our effects and rates reporter mark wilson here with me in sydney. just looking at the divergence compared to way analysts are looking at, it's the most divided view since at least 2016, what's your take? >> i think he postured that few yesterday and is getting more subscribers to the idea. currently, the boj end of the market -- the bond market yesterday, but the 10 year jgb yielded at a .15%. that's the highest to has every -- that's the highest it has ever been. pressing on toward that 1% barrier. it might force the boj's hand at the short end of the curve. they couldn't get rid of that negative rate policy and that would be a strong signal to the market. that was always the debate, what goes first or negative rates. i think that they are coming around to the idea that if they get rid of the negative rate first, that would be like a precursor to why cc being scrapped early next year. i do think that this boj meeting o

we wait for the bjo -- boj to do something definitive. where is the aftermath? normalize policy all of a site interest rates in japan become more positive and that would have spillovers globally but i think it is the other way around. everywhere else, you can see where the 10-year u.s., 30 year, in europe, in your upcoming decade highs in yields. it is almost detail waking the dog. the rest of the world is grappling with higher interest rates. that tell risk -- tale risk -- the world has normalize. we have been in 15 years of post-financial crisis and are finally getting back to normal. japan is late to the game. you can talk about the known unknowns, but it will be a shock, particularly in japan. guy: how do i protect myself? win: the flight to safety is there. the dollar is benefiting from many factors, one is the safe haven, last man standing in terms of global growth, stronger fundamentals. u.s. treasuries -- right now, room for base to go higher. but it is safe to say we should stay out of risk assets. you need to stay focused. do not go on the credit curve

yields, is this what survey is fondant say about the boj on the sidelines?the fact that the last increase in japanese yields has caused u.s. yields to go up in dragon everyone else with them. now we are at the situation where briefly for the u.s., it has come back down and things are going a little bit quieter. it might bring more money coming back into bonds. that emphasizes the potential that the boj sticks with its very slow, gradual moves towards making changes. that is a very strong expectation that we've got from those surveyed. the question becomes do they do something this year, or do they -- or is next year still the focus of when the boj was to remove negative rates and either raise or get rid of yield curve control. what are the other factors playing into it? there has been so much volatility, just as things are settling down, does the boj want to reintroduce volatility? that is very much a expectation of what what -- what would happen if they tweak yield curve control slightly. shery: with the huge swings in treasury on monday, today was not a lo

in terms of what it mean for boj policy?in general, we have seen that consumption and business investments in japan has had some moderation. the survey that is coming out in the next few hours will reflect that. but whether that shifts bank of japan policy, it's unlikely to move the needle. we've seen a surprise move in the july meeting, but in general, the 10 year yield, they would stay quite comfortably there which old allow them to assess the situation and in naion to where the trend goes. shery: lead economist at oxford economics with what to expect on your economic calendar this week. we take a close look at the state of economy in today's big take. a recession is more likely than a soft landing with risks including higher rates in oil prices. subscribers can read that on the terminal and bloomberg.com. plenty more ahead, stay with us. ♪ start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock st

that certainly does back the boj view we have seen a peak in price pressures in japan for now.he japanese yen very closely. not touching the 150 level just yet. let's change on. we also have the open of korea. at the start of the day here, it is the risk on tone being set here. tech stocks, among the big laggards so far. tsmc, another focus in the session today. we had earnings out yesterday. the top line essentially, projecting revenue ahead of estimates here. predicting the worst could be over for the chip sector broadly. is supportive factor -- this supportive factor, not playing out just yet. the korean won, fairly flat against the greenback. we have seen pressure on the offshore yuan, looking close to the 735 level. that's really the state of play. so far risk off through the session. haidi: lots of news for investors to contend with this friday's session. we do have more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities. ♪ to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardi

i don't foresee the boj moving away fundamentally from that monetary policy. the ball is in the fed's court. they are giving every indication of holding lineup rates. we see something break on inflation, hopefully not the economy itself. haidi: always great to chat with you, gary schlossberg. of course we are just hearing from japan currency minister decline into confirm if intervention was conducted. commenting they will always respond to excessive fx moves that have a negative impact on japanese firms. it will take into account whether these moves are deemed to be excessive but they are not confirming it. various factors are being taken into account to judge the fx moves, saying the yen moves are not desirable, the considerations include various factors regarding how they impact firms as well as japanese households. they are not ruling out any options regarding the 4x situation there. staying mum when it comes to whether an interventiontook place. we have seen the yen surging from that weakest level in a year amid the speculations that intervention did in fa

we have a story out today, economists do not expect anything from the boj.thing, there are some moves around may be prepare for some strength coming through in the japanese currency. 150 on the exchange rate. all rally in both major benchmarks. -- a rally in both major benchmarks. the biggest one since 2018. let's bring in mark critz field. -- mark cranfield. i want to talk about china, markets are rallying. do we need to see more from policymakers? >> we probably do. it is a pretty big day here. traders are seeing the potential for a stimulus from china. they are excited for property tax cuts from hong kong. they started their day very positively. seeing indices jump. if we do not see a 2% close up for the hang seng index there could be some disappointed people out there. what happens in the afternoon session is very important for the hong kong market. we really need to see a very strong clue because a lot of this hot money -- they probably thought the tax cut would be a bit more to encourage people back into the market. there could be a little bit of disap

the japanese yen and focus because we are testing that 150 mark, the rate differential between the boj fed and plate, and equities as a result looking to come under pressure throughout the session and we have most futures pointing to the downside. hong kong is standing out because you can see the drop protected for the 2% of the start of trade. hong kong caught between what's happening in the u.s. economy in china is worth mentioning as well and we have chinese inflation data do later in the story is different for the chinese economy, but cpi expected to state near zero and ppi and negative territory and inflation pressures likely subdued in the mainland economy for some time, but broadly china-u.s., it is story of inflation. shery: especially when we saw the u.s. cpi numbers hotter than expected on top of the ppi numbers we got in the previous data. take a look at u.s. futures at the moment because it is muted early in the asian session after stocks and treasuries falling on that speculation we might see more fed tightening. we had bancshares underperforming ahead of earnings results.

as well, but the boj has the ability to kickstart rises in u.s.ields as well. tom: i have to review this -- i did not do this. ring up that board. yen, 151. weak, weak yen. two year yield on above 0. 10 year yield almost 1%. i talked about this years ago. like, let's go to toronto dominion bank. you get up to 142 and it gets fixed. is that where we are heading, where the system just fixes itself? mark: no, i think the system is quite dynamic. we brought on variations of if and models, trying to understand what is going on in the market. the ins driving a weaker yen are fundamentally based. they make a lot of sense. the commodities story behind the scenes is important, especially from the hand over to last year, because it eliminates the trade surplus. that is fx. essentially everything we talk about everyday is trying to predict the balance of payments free. for the yen -- the balance of payments. before the end, nothing is stable. the dollar-yen should be 140 five, based on rate differentials and equities and risks. markets are looking for a tren

the boj announcing an offer to buy $2.7 billion of bonds.se yields have been pulled higher in the spike of u.s. treasuries. the word is the boj spiked easing measures for the meeting next week. >>> shares of hermes are higher as people are still splurging. lvmh noted consumers are spending less on high-end fashion. >>> barclays profits are narrowly beating it forecast, but it is beating on the margins for customers and sticky inflation impacting lending. barclays hinting at cost cutting later this year. >>> we are now going to turn to saudi arabia. some of wall street's biggest leaders descending on riyadh for the investment summit. we have dan murphy with thus morning. what are people saying? >> reporter: frank, i'm coming live to you here from davos in the desert. this is the important conference in the middle east. this year, it has been a test of saudi arabia's convening power because it was thought that israel war against hamas in gaza may actually stop some the titans of finance from des descending on riyadh. it does not appear to have

bloomberg talked about what other things the boj could do to get behind a push on the jgb. guy: let's talk about what we've been talking about, this time one hour ago we were talking to chris williamson, his data we have been digesting today and it paints a big gap between the united states and europe. take a look at what's happening with the u.s. data. coming through at 50, these are relatively good numbers and certainly a pickup from last month. you look at what's happening in continental europe and the u.k., these are bad numbers. the manufacturing numbers have come down for a while and in some cases get worse. the numbers out of europe do not paint a positive picture. in the u.s. may be some signs of stabilization. alix: we look at some of the names from ge, rtx, 3m. all of these guys beating estimates showing strong orders save for ge when it comes to jet engines. 3m raising its profit forecast. these are good solid numbers from some of these big names. so to wrap this all together we spoke to chris williamson on that latest pmi data and here's what he had to say betwe

is this the boj checking prices? but he is sure. alix: or are they intervening? yes like one of those three things. maybe there was a stop triggered at 150. dan curtis told us that the policy news came out in late july that rattled the one market. this is a big move, hard to understate this. let's get more into this. we will talk more about this. you are about an hour into the trading session. dollar-and research above 150 then came lower. abigail: into the jolts report, flatlining below 150 for the dollar-yen but higher above 150, the highest level in a year with her job available. talk about the intervening, almost down to 147 point 13. at that point, the yen versus the dollar was up. i have not had a chance to put this into a technical chart, but something i would point out about that july intervention is that the doj said they would allow him to go up to 1%. they have some work cut out for themselves in terms of credibility with traders. as father -- as far as the dollar-yen over the last time period, we can see what all of this looks like. i will be curious

that does put a little bit more pressure on the boj when it comes to its imminent expectations.tings. take a look around the fx side of things. this is a bit of a reprieve from the dollar strength stories. it was the bit of downside there for the bloomberg u.s. dollar index. we see the euro trading pretty steady at the moment after that ecb decision. but of course, just to repent -- recap our breaking news, china's premier, second most powerful man in the country has died of a heart attack. cctv releasing the information, saying he died of a heart attack. he passed away in shanghai in the early hours of friday, according to that report. this is china's official who spent a decade at the helm as premier. he was really seen as a possible champion of liberal reforms, structural reforms from china. a lot of those never made it to fruition. he alongside other key players were replaced by xi jinping loyalists. steve engle pointed out previously he was the other top contender for the presidency. let's get over to bloomberg economics chief economist joining us for more. you have covered

that possible policy tweak with the boj has now created its biggest volatility for dollar-yen going backo the end of july. the first time you started to see hints of perhaps that yield curve control changes. what's important to keep in mind is that this is compounding with some of the data we got overnight as well. u.s. jobs data is actively affecting dollar-yen, and that is scary at a time when we are monitoring every single thing the boj is doing. how much wider do those bands have to get? another chart for you to keep your eye on. i will throw you a third chart. in the u.k., perhaps some good news. remember yesterday we got that data that food prices are actually coming down a little bit? it has been a very long streak, two years of really high food prices, only for a finally, a tiny drop. that is a positive sign that perhaps those rate hikes are indeed filtering throughout the economy. we are going to get another read on that. tesco reports earnings in about five minutes about whether those price cuts are actually going to worry their long-term profit outlook. every single story in t

it is really a function of the yield gap between the fed and the boj. you can see the 10 year yield just coming online fairly steady but at that level you are around six times higher than the counterpart in japan. the ggp 10-year at yields. a stocks wise traders are focusing in on those bond market moves. and corporate earnings. you just mentioned meta but shares sliding and you can see that after hours move their down around 4%. the warning amongst others and on the economic outlook, so not a great lead into the session today. it is not just earnings in the u.s. there are also corporate earnings. in korea as well, we had sk coming out so just tracking that stock as it comes online. another drop as you can see around the 4% mark. the key thing to take away is that the sales decline slowed in the third quarter so we still saw a revenue dropping down around 17% but it is an improvement from what we had in the prior three months because that was a 47% drop. it is another sign perhaps the worst of the semi conductor sector slump is passed. it still you are

there is a cap to what we are seeing but all eyes will be on what we see out of the boj.ti: something we are watching closely. what kind of game changer today set with the federal reserve and the boe on their toes? we appreciate your report out of singapore. coming up, top interviews throughout the day from the future investment initiative in riyadh. our conversation with state street ceo renault hanley next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: the future invest conference -- future investment initiative conference currently underway in riyadh. yousef is live with an interview. yousef: the halls are filling up quick with top executives. we have a chance to speak to one of the world's largest asset managers. now joined by ron oh hanley, ceo and chairman at state street. at the beginning of the year we were catching up and you were saying geopolitics is going to be the biggest risk of 2023. here we are in october, you have seen the fallout from the gaza-israel war. run me through your impressions in terms of how this progresses from this point onwards. ron: most would agree with th

of course last week we saw more data signaling the potential the boj would do more including japan's data disappointing. we are also following the euro and the british pound, under pressure at the moment as well as the aussie. some more risk off sentiment spreading across markets but the japanese stock market on holiday today. we are following the yen as we bring in our next guest that says the currency could weaken further on rate differentials and slowing exports. with us is martin chief economist fujitsu. great to have you with us, we are not necessarily seeing that much of a safe haven reaction on the japanese yen today. a little upside today but not that much, are we headed towards another run towards that 150 level and will authorities intervene? martin: completely right, right now this is how much sentiment is actually negative where it is usually a safe haven. we are really way outside of the conflict right now, the yen should be stronger, the yen has been struggling around 150 because this might be the line in the sand at the government is drawing for another round of interv

e we had some information from the boj, we got some rhetoric. international bond yields has something to do with what's going on here. i think our federal reserve, in addition to not buying is actually selling her. and i think there's a lot of different issues here. it's interesting. i would have thought that last week going into the weekend and the government shutdown that the bond market was playing some games a little bit with that. if anything, it says no. unless you believe that bond yields moving higher is people really believing there's more of a fiscal deficit on the horizon and ratings agencies. i'll say, the equal weighed s&p is now down 1% on the year. it's significantly underperformed the s&p and in fact it's at an svb low right now, if you look at where it's kind of moved back to. we talk about this all the time. however, the leadership that this market has gotten from the big megacaps is something that will continue to be that which determines. and apple traded great today. >> i thought the market traded horribly today. the s&p clo

boj regional managers released a report summarizing their assessments compared to three months ago.he report says the economy has been picking up in three regions and recovering moderately in three. the assessments were unchanged for the remaining three which were judged to be recovering in the july report. now, the regional managers say the improvements result from people spending more on traveling and dining in addition to demand from foreign tourists. the recovery in production is leading to steady capital investment by businesses. the report also includes feedback on consumption patterns amid rising prices. hotel owners say demand is very high even though room rates have increased. super market operators say consumers are shifting towards buying low price brands as they're becoming more cost conscious. they also say people are increasingly only buying essential items. >>> the owners of 11 hotels and inns across japan are suing reservation service booking.com over unpaid accommodation charges of guests who use its website. the hoteliers are seeking payment of damages in full of r