it was expected but nonetheless another historic move from the boj. what does it change on the outlook because that is important? >> of course, the rate hike today was widely expected. what was surprising was the tone in his latest quarterly outlook report. means it's inflation outlook was lifted up, not just securing 2% further, but as well as it reveals the policy board is now still alert to the inflation overshooting because surprisingly for fiscal year 2025, they lifted up from previous 1.9% to 2.4% percentage points, as well as evaluating that the risk is further towards the upside. that's why on the boj's communication, i felt it shifted -- they are still concerned about securing 2% inflation. two, they secured inflation as well as alert to overshooting inflation. that is probably a sign that the boj is now pressing ahead with normalizing policy again. i was expecting those hawkish boj but market wasn't priced in. but now it's clear. i don't expect my baseline scenario that the boj will comfortably proceed with another rate hike, probably in apr

bloomberg understands boj officials see a good chance of a rate hike next week. we bring you our scoop. earnings season gets underway as tsmc posts a big beat on next income. four of america's biggest banks see their second most profitable year in history. we look ahead to the numbers from morgan stanley and bank of america later today. we talked about the bank earnings story. earnings coming through from the luxury group right now. third quarter sales at a constant fx level, up 10%. well above the estimates. this is a stock that's up around 35% over the last 12 months. the jewelry division has been relatively resilient to the slow down in luxury spend in china. china of course in focus for this company. that division has been under pressure but it's a beat in terms of the earnings that come through. the sales numbers for the third quarter. just breaking it down in terms of the topline number. then we go regionally. sales were the third quarter coming in at 6.1 5 billion. significant beat in terms of sales. the estimates had been for 5.6 billion euros of sales. i

scarlet: certainly the bigger driver once the fed and boj are done for a while. kate jukes, thank you so much for joining us. the head of fx strategy at societe generale in london. a number of executive orders that president trump has signed since being sworn in yesterday. more action expected today. for more, let's bring in kailey leinz. a flurry of executive orders signed yesterday. give us some of the highlights that we need to be on top of right now. kailey: 24 executive orders and four miranda the have the same effect. he came out addressing these things, rescinding 78 executive action from the body administration and that enforcing a lot of executive actions of his own, one being to an emergency at the border which will allow more resources there. he is entering birthright citizenship as well as reinstating the remain in mexico policy. he also declared an energy emergency. the opened up more land to oil and gas development. ending what he calls biden's ev mandate and offshore wind farming leasing. he also pulled out of the paris climate accord and w.h.o.. i

the boj, we expect. >> i don't think we will see the same disruption.lar-yen will strengthen and come down based upon narrowing differentials but our view, there is more to it. >> obviously a stop on the way is 145. [laughter] >> more risks right now. >> given the macro view how do you position? >> we have a strong dollar view. >> before we let you go, china will have to engage in stimulus. we saw the impact on the markets, probably not enough, it's going to have to be cleared up. the currency will depreciate and the government will need stimulus. the -- the -- the -- the real estate, uh, um, problems reflect and we think we will see action and confidence. i've been around for too long. >> christopher wilcox, head of wholesale, i think volatility is the wud. tom: no floor around china base for now, great conversation on the ground for us. we will speak with europe's largest insurer, the ceo of zÜrich insurance next. this is bloomberg. tom: extreme weather events are among the top. the fires will cost tens of billions of dollars with an insurance crisis.

the boj on friday. i would just say when it comes to these tariff threats, it is showing up in the pressure on the renminbi and the yen. this is coming despite the expectations that the boj is good to go on friday. if you recall, when he gave his toughest -- dovish presser, the thing that stood out was the uncertainty surrounding the trump administration policies. we've got into a lot of it without major negative surprises for the japanese economy. the idea that we are good to go for friday. despite this, the yen weakness is just a reflection with every tariff threat of indication for the yen there. tom: canada, mexico, china, the european union. his japan on the naughty step for donald trump? april hong checking in on the markets in singapore. thank you. president trump saying his threat to hit china with 10% tariffs on all imports is still on the table and could come as soon as next month. >> a tariff of 10% on china based on the fact that they are sending fentanyl to mexico and canada. tom: the repri

think about how the boj needs, days after trump returns to the white house, there has been a cautious optimism potentially in the markets as well. when we take a look at chinese stocks, part of it might be optimism that a joint briefing between the pboc and securities regulators might produce positive headlines that drive markets. the other element is it has been looking oversold. this chart shows you the port of call ratio -- put to call ratio and how sentiment has been reaching lows. a turnaround, suggested against this backdrop. and coming through on this gradual approach potentially for tariffs, the reaction has been pronounced on fx. as the dollar falls back we have seen spikes, the kiwi and aussie dollar. one thing is for sure, fx volatility, something we have to get used to under the trump administration, focusing on what we see from the boj as well, a big speech by the deputy governor seen as the last chance to telegraph to markets a hike next week. ultimately he said the board will be discussing one but that is far from actually pulling the trigger. markets aren't convinced.

the yen is in focus amid the shift in expectations from last week of a boj hike this week. pressing in roughly 80% probability. where does this leave the yen? the likes of morgan stanley saying they think to buy the yen, especially if tariffs from trump are not as onerous because that gives the fed space to reduce rates, helps lead to further conversions of u.s. and japan's policy rates. although if you think about how even if the boj hikes to 1% from the current 0.25%, and it is still a big yield differential, the carry trade might be at play so that could limit upside for yen appreciation but for now this is what we see on the asian markets. lizzy: avril hong in singapore, thank you for that read on asian markets. until that boj decision on friday, we have plenty to bring you from the world economic forum in davos. we will be discussing geopolitics, global growth, artificial intelligence and will be speaking to a host of powerbrokers. we have got the imf managing director kristalina georgieva, sarah frier the cfo of openai, the argentinian president javier milei, the nato

the boj finally exited its negative interest rate policy.in — this time to around 0.25% — showing their confidence in the country's economic recovery, and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worry that they may raise rates too fast, and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. officials have been cautious ever since, but they've hiked rates to 0.5% today. that's the highest in 17 years, and economists think they may raise the cost of borrowing several more times this year. the scottish capital, edinburgh, long a favourite for tourists, will decide today whether to impose a tourist tax. councillors recently concluded that a 5% levy on tourist accommodation was the best rate, and today they're voting on whether to proceed with it. the local authority hopes to raise around £50 million saying the move would go towards improving the city, but businesses fear it could damage local trade. leon thompson is from uk hospitality scotland which opposes the levy. he told bu

tom: what is the read across to the boj? this is a central bank that you have the finger on the pulse of. is it open the doors for the boj to be hawkish as investors now price stronger yen? >> as you were saying, that it governor will speak shortly. he was the guy that set up the rate hike this month. it was his speech a week before that did the trick. even before he stands up today, we have had a big story saying the bank of japan will reduce one part of its lending program by july. that means another step in quantitative tightening that japan is quietly reducing its balance sheet while almost nobody notices. clearly, the messaging, which ever way you cut it is that governor ueda does not like unconventional policies and is removing them step-by-step. the yen's drunkard or today even before the deputy governor speaks. they will push through the rate hikes. but the moment, nobody expecting march, but then again, not many people were expecting january they ramped up attention just in the last two weeks before the decision. th

tomorrow as you say is boj day. we have ahead of the decision tomorrow, a japan inflation print, but all bets are for a 25 point increase, this would be the most in 18 years. key to watch would be the tone of convene occasion from -- communication from ueda, if he sounds dovish that could send dollar-yen higher. there is a lot of uncertainty still regarding trump's policies. keep in mind that when it comes to japan's trade surplus versus the u.s., it is much higher than during the first trump administration, so this risk could be reflected in the yen even if the boj hikes tomorrow. tom: that trade surplus could leave it vulnerable to the tariff threat from president trump, though he has yet to name japan in terms of a potential target, but there is that expectation may be in terms of the surplus that japan could be vulnerable. avril hong with the important details around china's further intervention to prop up its equity markets. now to the tech front and a sparring match it seems between altman and elon musk. elon

that is the odds of a boj hike at that meeting next week. so the yen is strengthening. the taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer tsmc in focus on the back of those rules from the biden administration, currently down 2.3%. economists in bloomberg's survey are expecting u.s. consumer prices to show a fifth month of firm increases. today's print likely to reinforce the case for an extended pause in fed rate cuts. that is the affectation pay let's bring in valerie tytel on the key components worth scrutinizing on the report. >> it will be on that core month on month cpi print. expected to hit 0.3 for a fifth month in a rope. if we look at what is priced into the options market, market attention has squarely returned back to inflation. this is the biggest cpi print in nearly two years. the implied swaying in the s&p 500 for today's print is a plus or minus 1%, this is a high-stakes print both for what we can see happen in the treasury market. a hot print could tempt us to believe that the fed next move could be a rate hike and that bond move could continue. we saw 30-year yie

policy goes, will that be the deciding factor for this boj?you read and watch what the boj is saying, yesterday they lifted their inflation forecast and talk about upside risk. a lot of this is driven by what's happening in japan. the timing is dictated by concerns over is it going to be full trump or mini trump in terms of the disruptions that he charges. the big surprise because a lot of people thought the boj was going to hike and then say we can afford to wait. they have more intensity about further hikes. we think they will hike twice more this year. annmarie: yet, it is a yen with a reaction that has disappeared from the market. your interpretation seems to be more hawkish than this market was expecting. are you surprised we are not seeing more strength at this moment from the yen? steven: i am doubly surprised. it is not responding to the rate differential story at the short end. in addition in the past it has been well correlated with cmh and the fact that the cmh is strengthened but has not done much this week remains a prize. if the

tom: still lacking conviction on where the boj goes.aking the box when it comes to the wage story. now to the fed where with the latest minute show officials are eager to slow the pace of rate cuts. meanwhile the fed governor says he believes inflation will continue to cool toward the central bank's 2% target. >> my bottom line messages i believe more cuts will be appropriate. if the outlook evolves as i have described, i will support continuing to cut our policy rate in 2020 five. the pace of those cuts will depend on how much progress we make on inflation. while keeping the labor market from weakening. tom: let's bring in valerie, argue be the fed minutes even though they were backward looking drew specific attention this week, given the global picture you been breaking down. what stood out for you with these fed minutes >> >> thankfully there were no hawkish surprises in those fed minutes yesterday. specifically there wasn't anything hawkish from that lawyer speech we heard yesterday afternoon. it was his dovish comments that calmed

the boj finally exited its negative interest—rate policy.ths later the bank ofjapan raise rates again, this time to around 0.25%, showing their confidence in the country's economic recovery and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worried that they may raise rates to fast and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. rates to 0.5% today. to the us and stocks closed at all—time highs on thursday — following comments from president donald trump at the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. the president urged opec to lower crude prices and said he will push for interest—rate cuts let's get to new york and our north american business correspondent, ritika gupta. the benchmark s&p 500 closed at a record high on thursday, topping the 6100 milestone, this as investors digested comments from president donald trump including a call for cuts in interest rates and oil prices and assessed a mixed bag of corporate earnings. at the world economic forum in davos, switzerl

the boj finally exited its negative interest—rate policy.ates again, this time to around zero 25%, showing their confidence in the country's economic recovery and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worried that they may raise rates to fast and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. officials have been cautious ever since, officials have been cautious eversince, but officials have been cautious ever since, but some economists think they may raise rates later today. staying with japan and the country's or inflation rate has climbed to a 16 month high, listing expectations for a rate hike by the country's central bank. consumer prices rose 3% from a year earlier in december, largely due to higher energy costs. as the first eye or inflation has it 3% since august of 2023. thailand became the first country in southeast asia to legalise same—sex marriage on thursday, with hundreds of couples registering their unions. the new laws could also see a boom for thailand

a few months later, the boj raised interest rates again, this time to around 1.25%, showing their confidencey and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worried that they may raise rates to fast, and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. officials have been cautious ever since, officials have been cautious eversince, but officials have been cautious ever since, but they put rates have not .5% today, that is the highest in 17 years and economists think they may raise the cost of borrowing several more times this year. let's return to the world economic forum in davos in switzerland. the sessions have just closed, with the final plenary finishing about half an hour ago. it's been a consequential week dominated by an absent figure, the new us president donald trump who delivered a remote address to the gathering yesterday. let's hear now from the forum's chief executive officer burga brenda, who's just emerged from leading that final plenary in davos in recent minutes. thank you for making a beeline over to our li

the boj made no change to its guidance on future policy, and also noted that real rates remain low ande accommodative. they did, though, remove a phrase stressing the need to scrutinize risks surrounding overseas economies and markets. the yen. has strengthened since the decision, and jgb yields, especially on the short end, have risen. some economists have told cnbc that the japanese central bank was motivated to move this month because of concerns around rising inflation, especially in the face of a yen which had weakened back around 158 to the dollar just a couple of weeks ago. the december cpi print, which was also released earlier today, saw core inflation rise to 3% annualized. and in the quarterly outlook report, cpi expectations were revised higher for fy 25 and 26 as well. lynn lynn for cnbc business news. >> and seijiro takashima, professor of management at the university of shizuoka, is joining us to discuss this in more detail. seiji, great to have you on the show. first and foremost, i would like to understand whether perhaps the bank of japan actually learned a lesson fro

the boj finally exited its negative interest rate policy. showing their confidence in the country's economic recovery, and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worry that they may raise rates too fast, and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. officials have been cautious ever since, but they've hiked rates to 0.5% today. that's the highest in 17 years, and economists think they may raise the cost of borrowing several more times this year. so what does today's rate hike tell us about japan's economy? earlier i spoke to chris scicluna from daiwa capital markets europe. he thinks japan's economy is showing good signs of growth. first and foremost, it tells us that the japanese economy is a lot more normal than it used to be. i think the years of deflation now well and truly behind us in japan. inflation has been above the bank of japan's inflation target of 2% now for almost three years. so, really, those years of negative inflation are really long gone. inflat

the boj finally exited its negative interest rate policy. rates again — this time to around 0.25% — showing their confidence in the country's economic recovery, and that inflation is finally back. but that triggered a market sell—off because investors worry that they may raise rates too fast, and also because of a complex impact on the value of the japanese currency. officials have been cautious ever since, but they've hiked rates to 0.5% today. that's the highest in 17 years, and economists think they may raise the cost of borrowing several more times this year. in other news... uk chancellor rachel reeves has said plans to abolish non—dom tax status for people with high incomes earned over seas will be amended, to allow a more generous phase out of the tax benefit. reeves told an audience at the world economic forum in davos that changes would be made to upcoming legislation, to increase the generosity of a facility to help non—doms repatriate their funds to the uk. purdue pharma and the sackler family who controlled it have agreed to pay

nikkei in japan under pressure and the yen remains in focus as expectations continue to build that the boj will go with another hike next week at that meeting, .155 now the dollar currently up against the yen .2%. the major story and confirmation coming through from netanyahu that a deal to return hostages held in gaza has been reached and said government officials will gather later today to sign off on that deal. he had previously accused hamas of reneging on parts of the cease-fire agreement, risking its completion. the group says it remains committed to the deal. let's cross over to tel aviv. standing by his oliver crook. we have been hearing from the prime minister of israel. is the support of netanyahu enough to get the deal across the line given his coalition partners and some of their views on this? >> this is going to be one of the key factors within israeli politics about how the war is continued or is stopped and this is to do with the fact that this coalition is being held together by benjamin netanyahu's party and some very far right parties who want to continue to prosecute th

we are watching for a big speech from the boj deputy governor tomorrow and potentially any signs of shifts in the inflation outlook this is what we are seeing across the board. >> avril hong in singapore. thank you. we will be watching to see if the national team does that later. traders are looking ahead to u.s. inflation data. wednesday could be the next big day as far as how markets adjust to inflation expectations, expected to cool only slightly against the backdrop of a resilient labor market and a strong economy. let's bring in valerie tytel. are you hearing anyone mentioning the h word when it comes to the fed? >> we are getting close to hearing from a major bank calling for a hike, the bank of america saying cuts are so 2024. they are moving the conversation to hikes and they see no more cuts left on the table in 2024 and cut expectation from barclays and jt -- and j.p. morgan and goldman sachs removing one were cut from their forecast. the conversation is how close are we to that threshold to hikes? many economists think we need to see a resurgence in inflation, maybe core pce bre

we have a boj decision next week. they may not have in hand what they are going to do until wednesday or thursday. what we get on monday might not be the final product. i don't know how you price and what tariffs will look like and the consequences of tariffs for these markets then for central bankers. jonathan: we said yesterday there are three big stories this month. payrolls was one piece, cpi was another, the biggest data point of the month comes on monday. annmarie: last night mike walls was asked by bret baier on fox news about how many executive orders there will be and he laughed. he said there will be a lot, donald trump sand will start to hurt, there is a lot to roll back. you can expect executive orders on immigration, potentially one on tiktok to save the deal. energy. where he comes down on tariffs we still do not know because there two competing factions. jonathan: the mood has improved. we had solid earnings from the banks. then we had a downside surprise on cpi. we also had a better outlook from tsmc w

the boj decided not to do anything with rates at their last meeting, choosing instead to wait and seert: i think it is going to depend on the configuration of these policies globally. if the trump administration puts tariffs on trading partners, do they put tariffs back in kind? what does the global system look like under those dynamics? on balance, when we look at trump's policies we think on today or probably more risk of higher inflation in the u.s. than the would be otherwise. and for the rest of the world i think we are more concerned about an adverse demand shock from these policies, some potential for lower growth and lower inflation elsewhere once you take in the totality of expectations. on net if i'm looking at interest rates, i would be more concerned about a fed that stays higher for longer, and i think there might be more potential for rate cuts in other economies if we get the full brunt of trump policies we are expecting. scarlet: and you are thinking the ecb in particular, given they have a lot more work to do to stimulate their economy? robert: absolutely. we are look

year up almost four basis points the dollar-yen and this is what i am watching carefully because the boj does need to make the consensus and that is widely accepted and agreed upon and priced in that they will hike by 25 basis points. now let us look at oil prices because in his remarks to the audience, president trump said he will ask saudi arabia and other opec nations to lower oil prices. he sees that action reducing inflation and would pressure russia to end the war in ukraine. the wti losing about .9% at 74 or $76 a barrel. let us look at mid-day movers in the u.s.. first up is american airlines tumbling after forecasting a loss to start the year. a huge contrast with delta and united. america expects an adjusted loss of $.40 off a share -- even though they broke -- they put a strong quarter on last semester. general electric moving in the opposite direction climbing to a record high as the profit beat wall street estimates. they work through some supply-chain limitations and to buy back $7 billion of stock. let us check out alcoa losing more than 4.5%, down after a 25% tariff on ca

i do want to zero in on these central banks whether it's the boj or the federal reserve.ed, brian, and i just don't know. can they get it right? it seems like everything they do hurts 7% of the population -- 675% of the population and enriches the top 25% -- 75%. >> charles, this is one of my pet peeves. i've been talking about it for years. going back, ben bernanke in 2008 completely changed the way the federal reserve manages monetary policy. this'll make people's eyes glaze over a little bit, but bear with me for a second. we went from a scarce reserve model where banks had bare -- just enough reserves to be in compliance, and they traded those reserves. every single bank in the united states had a federal funds trading desk. and they bought and sold reserves from each other to make sure they were all in compliance. then ben bernanke comes in and he puts in quantitative easing and abundant reserves, and we have flooded the banking system with deposits. if you have a $100 bill in your wallet, 60 of those dollars were created in the last 16 years. the other 40 were creat

jordan said he think the next boj meeting is a live one. they might hike interest rates.ing up behind that idea. dani: i wonder if they are certain until after today and after the inauguration. yueda maybe wants to get that done but will not do it until we get figures from the u.s. and greater clarity of what's happening in the political situation. it is dominating the yen, gilts, pound. jonathan: under surveillance, investors counting down to the cpi at 8:30 eastern time. a bloomberg survey showing rising .3%. the data expected to boost the case for an extended pause in rate cuts after payrolls on friday. dani: i think it will be interesting litmus test for the market. will bonds actually rally if we get in line or little softer? if we don't rally, we have been talking about that we always don't care about the present environment. as uncertain as it might be, it's just a jumping off point for more inflation. you need a much bigger downside surprise than just .2% to actually get treasuries rallying. annmarie: i wonder what kind of inflation print we get. instead of saying

you believe the boj meeting is a live meeting. could we get an interest rate hike?hink we could. it is a really close call. japan is doing their best to be as vague as possible. the 40 guidance always surprises people. i think -- the forward guidance always surprises people. you have the growth surveys picking up, inflation is stronger services, ppi looking good. wage data at an all-time high since the 1990's. the last time wages were the strong the stronger rates were at 3%. if it wasn't for trump's tariffs on january 20, the boj would be happily hiking at this meeting. it comes four days after his inauguration. we will have a lot to make of what he does on january 20. if he soft on japan, maybe that is the moment they go for it. jonathan: jordan, we appreciate your time. some of the moves, the external factors shaking up markets abroad. lisa: the bank of japan has the luxury of waiting to make the decision. the bank of japan is thinking about upgrading their inflation forecast on salaries and the price of rice and other inputs. it goes to show how they waited to n

it leaves us also looking forward, i think will be interesting how the boj plays out this week.cision. jeremy: we may end up with a average height, that classic case of the boj have hiked, or do we go now and dollar-yen going higher rather than lower. that is worth keeping in mind in the context of the upcoming session. tom: jeremy stretch with analysis on the fx market of cibc. president-elect donald trump is poised to declare a national energy emergency unlocking new powers to boost u.s. production. we will get more views and analysis of what the implications of those emergency measures will be for production in the u.s. and global energy markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ prudential has been helping protect people for generations. ♪♪ we helped the lost generation find their way. the greatest be great. we watched boomers grow. [laughing] we are x, y and z. and this january, a new generation begins. generation beta so, now what? we help protect their life's work, like no generation before. so they can live a better life longer. ♪♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets," i'm tom

boj right decision and data in america including u.s. pmi's. we count down to inauguration day.ashington. a call between donald trump and xi jinping. what is the news? tyler: good morning. news coming as china's foreign ministry confirmed yesterday they will be sending the country's vice president to trump's inauguration. we get more news about who else will be there. a whole host of ceos, including elon musk, mark zuckerberg, tim cook and jeff bezos will be there. tiktok ceo could also be in attendance. as you have been covering all morning, inauguration day just one day after that expected ban going into place on tiktok, unless the supreme court intervenes or there's a deal today best. i caught up with democratic senator mark warner on capitol hill yesterday. he's the ranking never on senate intelligence. he was the chair when the tiktok ban passed and he was confused by this invitation. he doesn't understand how it squares with the incoming administration's get tough on china rhetoric. trump would likely take -- would likely not agree with that assessment considering he says

the one place you want to look as a hedge is that the boj is probably going to have to hike again veryanadian loonie made me think maybe he is running. i am wondering what you think about six months forward because some of the interesting wall street prognostications are at exactly opposed to one another. we expect the dollar to rally by 5% over the coming year, pretty much in line with what a lot of people are saying about the idea of parity. bank of america forecasting the u.s. euro dollar to rise by 110 by year-end simply because there isn't going to be the same kind inflation that comes with tariffs and frankly, the blowback on the u.s. economy is going to be more significant. >> i don't think it's going to have a significant blowback on the u.s. economy, i think this is going to be more directed to the fx market itself. a very strong dollar is bad for the rest of the world. it's not great for asia or europe, or even for the u.s. i think a big piece of it, what is the northstar of the trump economic policy, and while there is a lot of focus on tariffs and other things that are crea

on thursday president trump speaks to davos and then another round of jobless claims and a boj rate decisionn pinto. president lynn market -- martin. richard dixon and adina freeman. and then later, we will catch up with brian moynihan in just a few minutes time. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪ the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. matt: you can threaten tariffs about the equity market does not buy it. kitty: bloomberg open interest starts right now. sonali: coming up, futures are rising and yields are falling as trump delays tariff orders for now but he says they are coming. matt: the president warns of 25% tariffs on canada and mexico. as soon as february 1 the dollar shoots higher. katie: president trump issued executive orders on the