think about how the boj needs, days after trump returns to the white house, there has been a cautious optimism potentially in the markets as well. when we take a look at chinese stocks, part of it might be optimism that a joint briefing between the pboc and securities regulators might produce positive headlines that drive markets. the other element is it has been looking oversold. this chart shows you the port of call ratio -- put to call ratio and how sentiment has been reaching lows. a turnaround, suggested against this backdrop. and coming through on this gradual approach potentially for tariffs, the reaction has been pronounced on fx. as the dollar falls back we have seen spikes, the kiwi and aussie dollar. one thing is for sure, fx volatility, something we have to get used to under the trump administration, focusing on what we see from the boj as well, a big speech by the deputy governor seen as the last chance to telegraph to markets a hike next week. ultimately he said the board will be discussing one but that is far from actually pulling the trigger. markets aren't convinced.

that is the odds of a boj hike at that meeting next week. so the yen is strengthening. the taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer tsmc in focus on the back of those rules from the biden administration, currently down 2.3%. economists in bloomberg's survey are expecting u.s. consumer prices to show a fifth month of firm increases. today's print likely to reinforce the case for an extended pause in fed rate cuts. that is the affectation pay let's bring in valerie tytel on the key components worth scrutinizing on the report. >> it will be on that core month on month cpi print. expected to hit 0.3 for a fifth month in a rope. if we look at what is priced into the options market, market attention has squarely returned back to inflation. this is the biggest cpi print in nearly two years. the implied swaying in the s&p 500 for today's print is a plus or minus 1%, this is a high-stakes print both for what we can see happen in the treasury market. a hot print could tempt us to believe that the fed next move could be a rate hike and that bond move could continue. we saw 30-year yie

tom: still lacking conviction on where the boj goes.aking the box when it comes to the wage story. now to the fed where with the latest minute show officials are eager to slow the pace of rate cuts. meanwhile the fed governor says he believes inflation will continue to cool toward the central bank's 2% target. >> my bottom line messages i believe more cuts will be appropriate. if the outlook evolves as i have described, i will support continuing to cut our policy rate in 2020 five. the pace of those cuts will depend on how much progress we make on inflation. while keeping the labor market from weakening. tom: let's bring in valerie, argue be the fed minutes even though they were backward looking drew specific attention this week, given the global picture you been breaking down. what stood out for you with these fed minutes >> >> thankfully there were no hawkish surprises in those fed minutes yesterday. specifically there wasn't anything hawkish from that lawyer speech we heard yesterday afternoon. it was his dovish comments that calmed

we are watching for a big speech from the boj deputy governor tomorrow and potentially any signs of shifts in the inflation outlook this is what we are seeing across the board. >> avril hong in singapore. thank you. we will be watching to see if the national team does that later. traders are looking ahead to u.s. inflation data. wednesday could be the next big day as far as how markets adjust to inflation expectations, expected to cool only slightly against the backdrop of a resilient labor market and a strong economy. let's bring in valerie tytel. are you hearing anyone mentioning the h word when it comes to the fed? >> we are getting close to hearing from a major bank calling for a hike, the bank of america saying cuts are so 2024. they are moving the conversation to hikes and they see no more cuts left on the table in 2024 and cut expectation from barclays and jt -- and j.p. morgan and goldman sachs removing one were cut from their forecast. the conversation is how close are we to that threshold to hikes? many economists think we need to see a resurgence in inflation, maybe core pce bre

the boj decided not to do anything with rates at their last meeting, choosing instead to wait and seert: i think it is going to depend on the configuration of these policies globally. if the trump administration puts tariffs on trading partners, do they put tariffs back in kind? what does the global system look like under those dynamics? on balance, when we look at trump's policies we think on today or probably more risk of higher inflation in the u.s. than the would be otherwise. and for the rest of the world i think we are more concerned about an adverse demand shock from these policies, some potential for lower growth and lower inflation elsewhere once you take in the totality of expectations. on net if i'm looking at interest rates, i would be more concerned about a fed that stays higher for longer, and i think there might be more potential for rate cuts in other economies if we get the full brunt of trump policies we are expecting. scarlet: and you are thinking the ecb in particular, given they have a lot more work to do to stimulate their economy? robert: absolutely. we are look

jordan said he think the next boj meeting is a live one. they might hike interest rates.ing up behind that idea. dani: i wonder if they are certain until after today and after the inauguration. yueda maybe wants to get that done but will not do it until we get figures from the u.s. and greater clarity of what's happening in the political situation. it is dominating the yen, gilts, pound. jonathan: under surveillance, investors counting down to the cpi at 8:30 eastern time. a bloomberg survey showing rising .3%. the data expected to boost the case for an extended pause in rate cuts after payrolls on friday. dani: i think it will be interesting litmus test for the market. will bonds actually rally if we get in line or little softer? if we don't rally, we have been talking about that we always don't care about the present environment. as uncertain as it might be, it's just a jumping off point for more inflation. you need a much bigger downside surprise than just .2% to actually get treasuries rallying. annmarie: i wonder what kind of inflation print we get. instead of saying

you believe the boj meeting is a live meeting. could we get an interest rate hike?hink we could. it is a really close call. japan is doing their best to be as vague as possible. the 40 guidance always surprises people. i think -- the forward guidance always surprises people. you have the growth surveys picking up, inflation is stronger services, ppi looking good. wage data at an all-time high since the 1990's. the last time wages were the strong the stronger rates were at 3%. if it wasn't for trump's tariffs on january 20, the boj would be happily hiking at this meeting. it comes four days after his inauguration. we will have a lot to make of what he does on january 20. if he soft on japan, maybe that is the moment they go for it. jonathan: jordan, we appreciate your time. some of the moves, the external factors shaking up markets abroad. lisa: the bank of japan has the luxury of waiting to make the decision. the bank of japan is thinking about upgrading their inflation forecast on salaries and the price of rice and other inputs. it goes to show how they waited to n

the one place you want to look as a hedge is that the boj is probably going to have to hike again veryanadian loonie made me think maybe he is running. i am wondering what you think about six months forward because some of the interesting wall street prognostications are at exactly opposed to one another. we expect the dollar to rally by 5% over the coming year, pretty much in line with what a lot of people are saying about the idea of parity. bank of america forecasting the u.s. euro dollar to rise by 110 by year-end simply because there isn't going to be the same kind inflation that comes with tariffs and frankly, the blowback on the u.s. economy is going to be more significant. >> i don't think it's going to have a significant blowback on the u.s. economy, i think this is going to be more directed to the fx market itself. a very strong dollar is bad for the rest of the world. it's not great for asia or europe, or even for the u.s. i think a big piece of it, what is the northstar of the trump economic policy, and while there is a lot of focus on tariffs and other things that are crea