ahead of bond and in anticipation of the bond pass knowledge. the project was put on hold in fall of 2021. as i mentioned it resumed with the reengagement with the fire department on the mem randzum of understanding which is necessary for allowing us to continue with full faith and confidence in the development and delivery. project. we are working as i mentioned in regard to securing a remaining parcel to arc semble the site. lion share of the site made possible through the resolution the purchase. that was the developer that sold the property to the city. and still seek to secure important portion of the site that we have a full regularly sized parcel to develop the project. we will be reiterating the building's program. the nodes and expectations of the fighter department. we have the initial statement of that purpose but we have to reiterate it. we actually selected the executive architect for the project done reasonable. we will be in the process of bring the contract in the next few mont and putting out an rfq for the construct manager gen

this means that people who want to get out of these bonds sell them, too.t is possible to invest in rome to beat inflation, as expected, because i said how come, there are no such instruments today, deposits offer much lower rates, but when , of course, if we see a povdp on the secondary market, we can find less than 125%, then i will say so. to say that this is an alternative to buying a dollar is not a fact that it will be possible to earn money or even beat the infection, but for some part of the money, you should think about going there, actually, i wanted to approach such personal ones well, i don’t know if it can be considered advice, we will not it’s easy to give no advice to anyone. let’s consider the options of how to save your savings from inflation and from e depreciation, e.e. now with the help of the stock market, that is, if i have a conditional well, i don’t know uah 100,000, and i understand that the inflation forecast for the end of the year 30%, that is, i actually lose a third of this amount, and i am trying to save it in some way. well,

this means that people who want to get out of these bonds sell them too.ady an interesting tool. yesterday i was asked how to invest in rome to beat the expected inflation, because i told the reference that there are no such tests. instrument deposits are offered at a much lower rate, but when, of course, will we see a rise in the secondary market the market since then than 125%, so i will say that this is an alternative to buying dollars, it is not a fact that it will be possible to earn or even beat the infection, but for some part of the money, it is worth thinking about going there, actually, i wanted to approach such personal well, i do not know if it is possible we will not consider it as advice, we will not advise anyone, we will simply consider the options of how to save our savings from inflation and from e depreciation, e.e. now with the help of the stock market, that is, if i have a conditional well, i don’t know 100,000 uah and i understand that the forecast on inflation at the end of the year is 30%, that is, i actually lose a third of this am

and smart social bonds being issued, in europe it is green bonds.e: thank you so much for joining us today. charlotte edwards, esg credit strategist at barclays. coming up subtype -- tiger global files big tech. will go into the next specialist filings intact next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: >> the biggest problem was clear 1907 when the financial system failed. >> had to incompatible knobs. >> had one lecture on -- don't let inflation get ingrained. once that happens, there is too much in stopping the momentum. >> i think we did the right thing in 1987. i think we did the right thing in 2007 and 2008. you just pour liquidity into the system. >> in some ways, i think it ushered in the monarch -- modern era of federal reserve crisis management. >> before the global financial crisis, was the sense that the smartest people in the universe were goldman sachs market -- morgan stanley. if they were so smart? how did they get into trouble? >> we had a pandemic, a volatility shock, and a war. >> if i were to point to one thing is a culprit for the fed m

at the bond market. talk to us about the liquidity picture in the bond market right now. alex: oh, man. liquidity, you talk to everybody on the street about this and it is not great. one of the things we're hoping to get out of the federal reserve meeting last week is the press conference. how are they thinking about treasury market? what are they looking for that things will mediate in the treasury market. will it be enough? and the pace of the quantitative tightening program picks up. these are things that we will get a bit more guidance on. the treasury in their funding announcement today, it was discussed in the buyback where you replace them with something else as a way to help treasury market functioning. it is such a ways away from any concrete decision on any of this. the treasury bill market is very liquid and part of the treasury pole. it could be as wide as 10 business points. that is huge for a liquid market. everybody is very concerned right now. you know, it is a lot. and i think everyone i

facebook parent meta is considering its first ever bond sale.y will arrange a series of fixed income that will lead to an offering. they have assigned meta a aa minus rating. >> meta shares are up about 4% right now but it is a bigger boost for jay powell today. helping with the boost in the shares. it is now one of his largest shareholders. clearly, the market is excited about this. why? what are they trying to achieve? >> people tend to listen. he spoke and appreciated his input. of course, the firm --one is that they are cutting costs. but they are cutting costs while giving you a massive share buyback. paypal announced 15 billion dollars. morgan stanley is not seeing even half of that price decline. to be able to do to be things at once means a lot. they are cutting back on spending, on stock trading, and those are higher risk businesses. they want to see a company like paypal making it through a downturn like this because they are really the gorilla in the room. >> a question being asked about paypal's management, why has this not happened

why is the bond market taking a bigger hit. >> i think the bond market is around 4%, and maybe a little bit over, a little bit less. the 10-year note has not move very much, but the 2-year note has retired. we saw that in june. the market is saying, hey. we have a fed hike for a. of time, but eventually, the reserve will have you ease substantially because the economy is going to falter a bit. it is not as early as we had an pricing from a couple of weeks ago. more flattening of the yield curve. >> the flattening as an inversion story, and that is crucial fight -- crucial as well. that may mean something for these recession calls. we see a recession reversion, as highlighted, with basis points, but how far are we from going even deeper to a folder in -200? >> that would be above 5% to see that inversion, but with this inversion, you may see that over 30 years. -65 basis points, and that is for 2-year note to keep climbing up to around 3.75 to 4%. the 10 year yield just doesn't quite keep up even though yields move higher. this goes high for the 10 year yield. it is really an inversion t

bond market.ro bond market has gone through a tough time, with inflation going faster, dependency on russian commodities, we are quite worried. because the market has seen potential new issues, when you look at -- that is something we keep an eye on. kathleen: if you look at the future, the federal reserve has signaled they are going to raise rates at least as high as 4% and will keep them there. that is something bond traders had not realized. if the economy is slowing down, you have the fed holding a key rate so high. guest: it's not going to be good. we have seen a bit of that earlier this year. you have this negative correlation the selloff has been led by the central banks hiking, the correlation between credit and rates. to your point earlier, we're going to go in recession. that is going to hurt credit investors. the best way we want to protect ourselves and preserve capital is stay short, rates have further to go. in the credit space, if we believe in the story of recession, which is what

>> you have to short the bond market.he central banks fell way behind the curve and now they are catching up. they are now stampeding because of constraints inflation is forcing them to catch up because they are so far behind. you cannot be long yet. you have to be under short bonds. anna: where are those pockets? >> you need to do with this point is two things. you need to get inflation compensation. we've been quite underweight for quite a while. we've started to buy dips. we think eight or 9%. that is more than credit. a number of etf's out there give inflation tax refunds. that is one place to be in the u.s. the other places long-duration securities. they are long-term bonds. we can talk about why long-term treasuries are enough. alix: wire -- where are you shorting? where are long-term treasuries coming? >> in terms of shorting, what's happened is the ecb has fallen quite far behind. they went from negative rates to talking about 75. spreads are widening. they have issues with power and so on. they are really trapped

gold bond pure moisture lotion 24-hour hydration no parabens, dyes, or fragrances gold bond championin power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity >>> we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli, here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. we have kate rogers and owen lau. mike, i'll start with you on the broader market which is sort of mixed. the nasdaq is a little higher, the s&p 500 is unchanged and the dow is lower path of least resistance still feels higher after a 9% gain in july and sort of starting off this week with the third week in a row of gains i don't feel like enough people mentioned the bank of england today whi

jp morgan, bond markets are still mispriced.ake a listen. >> i'm looking now at credit spreads in the mid-for hundreds, and they just looked too expensive to me. they do not seem to adequately price in recession risk. i think we, by year end, will go back up to the old highs of around 600 over. i also do not think the market is adequately pricing in quantitative tightening. i would like to see a couple months of that's, see what the up the appetite for the market did i just bonds when they are coming out of the fed left right and center. taylor: kelsey berro, matthew hornbach, jim bianco still with us. it is interesting bob michele pulls in dimensions and pulling -- how are you thinking about the lack of spreads widening approaching qt and high-yield markets signaling to the equity markets things may not be that bad? kelsey: yeah, so what we are thinking is spreads in that 400 range is not appropriately compensating you for the risk of a recession or landing. that, earlier in the summer, prescott as wide as 600 to 650 and at tha

how we reach that bond, that is the key question. i it was still beat from what the economists were expecting. not painting a pretty picture in anyway. still, the sub gauge is not looking good either. rishaad: forward guidance and the like here, big on the manufacturing side. let's get more flesh on this with our chief asia economics reporter. >> you made a good point, it is about the sub gauge, the output and the new orders all in contraction to territory that does not suggest quick turnaround. it shows the overall pmi story, that the impact of the power shortage hit home, as well as covid and the ongoing property slump. it speaks to the idea that the manufacturing sector remains in heavy waters. the service side of things is contracting are slowing down, which was expected. that hands to general mobility in tourism which is what we are seeing in the indicators ahead of it. it speaks to an economy that continues to slowdown. yvonne: in terms of policy, is the party of congress what we will see finally from -- some sort of clarity on

is it a violation of the law if the head of naftogaz or his mother, for example, takes and buys bonds, bonds of naftogaz, which are they freely sold on the market, this is not formally a violation of the law, and then naftogaz pays either its manager or his relatives there, well, the interest on these bonds, that's right, mr. igor. you and i are simply talking about hundreds of millions of dollars of bond issuance, yes, for hundreds of millions of dollars, and if there is any part of these hundreds of millions of dollars that is indirectly or directly owned by managers of today's or previous naftogaz, well, this is called insider trading. yes, in western terminology, and law enforcement agencies , for example, in america, the question arose. does the management or the previous one have the right to use insider information in order not to abuse it, but in order to to enrich, to engage in enrichment precisely because of the ownership of such bonds, but i would talk now about others, i would talk about the fact that in fact the story with naftogaz bonds is part of a big history of the gr

but a lot of indirect investments coming in and we saw a decent takedown from the bond market -- bond i seeing -- we are seeing a steepening of the yield curve. it's more in the fx space. jonathan: on -- jon: on the stock, disney an obvious one, streaming numbers and part performance. up more than 5%. we've seen bumble under pressure on its outlook. pfizer impacted by litigation worries right now and a canadian player with stronger than expected sales. they are out of their chief fall and winter period but sticking with canada, i want to get to breaking news. bay street is at the center of the market. canada. i cannot -- something is affecting the core. we want to bring in our managing editor derek. one of the key providers provided an update. what more can you tell us? derek: before 12:30 p.m., the lights went out in toronto, including where berg has its toronto euro feis bloomberg has its toronto bureau. it's a good chunk of the financial district. particularly eased of jones street that divides toronto between east and west. caroline: as you are looking at what is happening on the

they deliver the bonds. how does the fed pay for those bonds? they credit a goldman's bank account for one billion dollars. where does that one billion come from out of thin air? this is the ultimate atm machine. they just created out of thin air and that's what the fed was doing long past when i thought it was justified. they were doing it in 2021 at a huge pace keeping interest rates artificially low and the now we're a pain for the price for today. and the question is can the fed unwind this in a way without giving us a big recession. okay, timely topic. we we just recently had a fed decision in which they announced that they're going to start drinking those those bond holdings. i wonder you know, most economists would say that those those what you just wait the process you just describe by which the fed creates money and puts it in the system in order to buy these bonds isn't quite the same as government spending in the sense that a lot of that money basically just sits on on bank balance sheets. it doesn't trickle into the economy in the sa

bond yields slump. $532 million a day. that is the daily profit of saudi aramco in the second quarter, the second ever by any listed company. plus, a u.s. congressional delegation arrives in taipei after a visit by nancy pelosi spurred china to launch its most aggressive military drills in decades. warm welcome to the show. we spoke about a bear market rally. are you reading michael burry's tweets? either way, it is an equity rally that has been much maligned and deeply questioned. i had a conversation with hsbc. we are coming off the back of this trifecta of misses in the china data, which we will dig into in a moment. dennis gartman says you have to cut stocks. he recommends them cut 2% to 3%. this is a bear market rally. he or she who loses the least will be the winner. stocks are lower this morning, nasdaq down by 0.25%. there is a quantum of bad news coming in across the asset classes from china. let's talk about the cross as sets because we have a lack of believe in the equity narrative. but for t

funds, corporate bond funds like lqd, that's the largest corporate bond fund out there for etfs andh yields saw inflows like the yields brought high-yield corporate etf and that's also on the list. equity inflows flattish recently, but as technology has rallied in july and there have been notable inflows into growth stocks and the pro shares ultra nasdaq 100 it's a mouthful, but it provides two times the gain so if the qqqs and the nasdaq 100 is up 1%, it's up 2% very popular etf right now there's also been inflows into defensive ways to play the market and the opposite of this and dividend paying etfs like the invesco high-dividend, low volatility and that invests in high dividend payers that have relatively low volatility and finally, there's been a whole spate of single-stock etfs launched in july so, for example, you can now betts against tesla, it just launcheded a while and it provides the inverse of tesla every day. these single-stock etfs will be a big story in the second half of the year and we'll see dozens of them launching in the next active. >> i had not heard of these

and he also joked a lot with bond.imes, even too much after him, timati dalton stepped into the service; his bond is called the most underestimated dalton turned out to be closest to the original from the book. was darker and tougher than his predecessors, and unlike them, he reflected and challenged the orders of his superiors. this is what craig's bond will then do. but then the public was not ready for this. and dalton ended up starring in just two films of the irish pierce reset. nam, too, could become bond before he was considered to replace moore, but brosnan was busy filming the american series, his first film goldeneye turned out to be the most successful of his bond history. but then everything went in descending order of armor, very unlucky with the scenarios and the last fifth movie. die but not now absorbed all the possible bond clichés, which now seemed just a parody and was considered the worst in the entire franchise. well, finally, the hour of daniel craig has come, at first the fans, he was received wi

the bond vigilantes were very vigilant at the beginning of the year bond yields went up dramatically, mortgage rates went up dramatically that certainly has helped to slow the economy down and create a housing recession for all practical purposes but now what i mean, now the bond yield has come down. they're not being very vigilant. it's not as though we are slam dunk assured that inflation is coming down, and yet we've got this drop in bond yields the only thing i can really explain is the bond market must be proceeding, things are going to get a lot weaker, which certainly wasn't concerned by friday's employment report, and i think for investors are kind of viewing the united states as a safe haven i kind of kind it a new phrase here, t net. there is no alternative country. when people look at all the geopolitical mess we're in now, they want to be in the u.s. and the dollar's been strong and they've been putting it in fixed income. >> tea neck right next door, nice town. ed yardeni, thanks. >> always a pleasure. >>> if investing in meme stocks makes you nervous, our next guest fav

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misses bond option day for you, tom. yesterday after the cpi print you had a 10 year option the did well and you have seen this. people flooding back to bonds. to kaylee's point, you are seeing the rally. how low can it go and what does that say, does it send a contradictory message to what we are seeing in stocks? you normally have an inverse relationship between these asset classes. and mary daly is speaking -- inflation is sticky, way too high at a .5%. they did seem open to slowing the pace but this has been interesting to me. one fed official after another has come out and said guys, we are not going to pull back. why are we praising in rate cuts? the market continues to say we don't buy it. i find this an interesting conundrum were fed officials are trying to drop on the market and it is interesting. tom: someone say the bond market is on there as well. futures up 11. a timely way to look at the equity market, a fixed income. head of global fixed income at morgan stanley investment management is the right guy to ta

and goldman says fine, they deliver the bond to pay for the' bonds, they credit goldman's bank account $1 billion, where does that come from? thin air. this is the ultimate atm machine, they created it out of thin air andit that's what the d was doing long past when it is justified, doing it in 2021 huge pace keeping interest rates artificially low and now paying for the price for it today andnd the question is, can the fed unwind it about giving us a big recession? >> honestly a timely topic. we recently had a decision they announced they will shrink bond holdings. most economists would say the process you described by which the fed creates money and put it in the system to buy funds isn't the same asov government spendig the sense that the money sits on balance sheets, it doesn't trickle into the economy in the same way. i wonder your thoughts because it seems to be some debate around how inflationary that process really is. >> when you have massive amounts of spending the scale of spending exceeding anything we've had in peace time so the question then becomes, how do you finance it

in the bond market we seal yields moving lower. this is the lowest we have been since april as the focus turns to growth fears rather than inflation. the dollar is weaker. on that crude story, wti down for percent. we have a 90 handle on a barrel of crude and that is very much a demand-side story as we consider china and europe and the slowing in the global economy. guy: interesting we did not see that in the manufacturing data out of the united states. solid numbers. let's talk about the story that broke just a few moments ago. bloomberg has confirmed house speaker nancy pelosi is expected to visit taiwan. we think that will happen tomorrow. this is according to people familiar with the matter. let's get the latest from annmarie hordern. what does the latest reporting tell us? annmarie: what we have his confirmation of what we have heard overnight from local taiwanese press that speaker pelosi does plan to go to taiwan. it is very late in the evening in asia, 12 hours ahead. by this time tomorrow she is likely to be in taipei. wha

evidence of a return to the correlations that bond investors expect they expect bonds to do well and't up until april it was on the bond market, because we saw resilience, in the credit market, loose lending standards, and a rather stable trade-weighted -- nothing was helping is the fed go ahead its job down, so we've seen since april, anytime the equity market has quaked, the bond market has rallied. we should think about the repricing as a terrific opportunity to get back into bonds. the aggregation of bonds major indices are yieldsing near 4% and they're able to achieve it, that's a return that looks very good relative to history we have decades, even hundreds of years of history on this to suggest that that's a good rate of return, relative to the volatility, and other assets this is a terrific opportunity to be thinking about the bond market, certain for income-seeking investors, and first they should think about the gains, they should think perhaps of shortening the duration to be considering in this environment. >> i do agree. look, as the economy slows here, that long duratio

we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free.folio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. ♪. charles: all right, so it is no secret our nation is at odds with each other and things are actually getting worse. lots of powerful people are sadly the ones actually fanning the flames of anger and urging others to ignore the foundations and rules and ethos that built this country. two political parties hate each other, young voters hate both of them. more people are starting to get the idea maybe they can find more friendship from social media than they can in their own community. it's a mess. i was really think about this the other day. i want to speak to someone who isn't always pushing an agenda, someone who can really keep it real. i wan

we'll send you our exclusive bond guide free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income, are federally tax-free, and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376 that's 1-800-376-4376. >>> welcome back, everybody. retailer are filling the bulk of the calendar, but not everyone we have today's edition of "the earnings exchange. it's cisco, with a "c" down 27% this year. it had a bad last quarter. frank holland joins you with the story and danielle shay jane us. welcome to both of you frank, what are you watching for kriismt. sco. last quarter them game out can with dire look but the next quarter, 5% eps, the questions about china, sourcing components, they still remain, as the country continues to ramp up from the covid lockdowns, and the russia/ukraine war is continues

have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you have a yield curve which has bounced from the -50 to 73 and this is significant. this suggests that perhaps the worst has passed in the bond market. the dollar remains resilient. 18% overvalued on a relative basis, relative effective exchange basis. the past 10 years. is the dollar exhausted and something that may come into play? what will jay powell communicate to the market? we are going to the higher ground and we are going to hang out there for a while. kathleen hays is with me from jackson hole. i love that line. steve stitching ski is tracking the energy story. talking through the good news on the u.s. listed chinese stocks. as ever, it threads the needle of the markets from singapore so the financial world is counting down to the fed chair, jay powell's hotly anticipated speech in jackson home. the fomc member esther george told bloomberg it is important to clarify the destination that rates are heading to. >> we have more room to

to your bond market, sovereign bonds, aussie rates down by 10 basis points as you can see. it continued drop on u.s. 10 year government bond rates. manus: from dubai this is "daybreak middle east." tensions over taiwan. the white house urges beijing to refrain from action over nancy pelosi's expected visit to the island. this as joe biden says a u.s. strike killed a key planner of the september 11 attacks. asian stocks and u.s. futures selloff. treasury yields decline. traders keep a wary eye on development in taiwan. three times 50. the reserve bank of australia hikes by 0.5 for the third consecutive month. since there is no preset path, the aussie dollar drops. is it a dovish hike from the rba? they are saying inflation will top out later in the year. let me show you what is going on with angst in the market as poulos he is set to touchdown in taiwan. the rhetoric, goldman sachs say the result, they are leaning into the potential as they see dovish messaging from the federal reserve. a short-lived rally on the back of the earnings. companies around the world will kitchen

this is a story of a bond rally. also in australia and new zealand, the rba continuing to say they are data-dependent and there is no set path for rates but they did flag they are likely to hike again. we are also watching a sell down in softbank on a report that the hedge fund elliott management has offloaded almost all of its stake in softbank. all of this uncertainty over the chinese economy, the surprise cut yesterday, leading to a fairly flat market on the msci asia index, some of the index -- the weakness being offset by gains elsewhere. dani: thank you very much. juliette saly in singapore. let's look at some of the key things that participants will be watching out for today. in less than an hour we will get the u.k. labor data. unemployment is expected to remain around 3.8% in the three months to june. the jobs market remains red-hot through the quarter. then we will get the germany survey for august, investor confidence. that has been hard-hit by soaring inflation, the energy crisis into the war in ukraine.

so there's been buying in bonds ever since the bond market will tell me, scott, if i'm wrong. i'm wrong in my assessment if the bond market now reverses and we see significant selling pressure. >> i think we're back to the same question we asked last wednesday afternoon or thursday morning, post-fed. is the market getting it right or way market getting it right or wrong? that's why we're rallying because the market thinks that the fed is going to pivot, that they are closer to the end >> the markets are taking one heck of a stance here. it's not just the stock market or bond markets, the feds fund >> bill dudley, right, he says wishful thinking won't help the fed beat inflation. his idea is the market's exuberance stems in part from pole's latest news conference fueling speculation of a quote, up quote foist smaller interest rate increases with some even arguing that the fed has done enough already don't be confident about such an outcome. the whole conversation about this rall from here whether it's a bear bounce or something more comes down to that point, whether the market

these are some of the conundrums baked into the bond market. tom: let me steal from john the mere -- lemere. kailey leinz is the cleanup to early. you are doing a more european show that we are. is there a belief the hydrocarbon disaster of europe can move over to the united states? kailey: i think there is a sense the united states will be relatively more insulated. europe is dealing with an energy crisis that could get worse beginning today with part of the rhine river becoming impassable for cargo. tom: i don't need a tour guide here. i'm scheduled to take the tour in 2025 to go castle watching. we can't get coal so net gas goes up, right? kailey: exactly and that's the problem europe is facing. it's an energy driven inflationary shock, one that the ecb is poised to do little about on the supply side. they are still trying to hike rates into an economy weakening due to the same energy crisis and the high cost of living. tom: lisa says get to the data check. futures up 13. dow futures up 99. vix, 20.19 shows a resiliency of equities. we have

year over year that melted down the european bond market and our bond market.t's why we're cautious where you don't have a lot of earnings reports. pretty fair value market and plenty of concerns of fed policy and economic growth and inflation. >> what about if things start to pull back? where do you think support gets found for the s&p 500? what level would you pile back in again >> we're pretty bullish. you had a good segment of the european energy crisis what almost no one ever discusses is this is very, very positive for u.s. heavy industry not just lng and energy, but also fertilizer and chemical and steel. all manufacturing requires gas or electricity we think the u.s. economy is very resilient we think we will bounce 3,800 in that range between now and earnings season in october we are more constructive because we watch the energy market >> you mentioned you felt the fed had done most of its work already, but the extent to which issues in europe had infected u.s. markets so do you think that u.s. markets can ignore european recession or worsening europea

but bonds have not been far behind. the scale of the european crisis, you have ppi inflation running at 37. you have a crisis that will rip through the economy and have long-term effects. do you think as you think about treasuries and bonds, can i put them in the same basket? is a bond still risk-free? michael: as of now, it still is. the probability or risk of eurozone dissolution or e.u. dissolution is small. european fiscal policy will be loosened over the next couple of years. through financing through international agencies. it won't fall on the bundesbank. on the other hand, the bunds are impacted by these inter-europe issues, particularly russia and ukraine. which causes more issues. together, they are the two risk-free assets. one within the euro zone and second in the global and treasury market as well. even though the fed is pushing back hard on monetary policy expectations, the risk-free aspect characterization of treasuries and bunds pushed yields down. which pushed them lower than they might be if equity ma

offshore bonds, definitely very difficult for them.so see chinese developers trying to dispose of their assets, to raise funds to meet operational and financing needs. yvonne: when do you expect to see a peak in defaults in the property sector? kaven: it is very difficult to accurately determine the timing our peak. however, we are forecasting that more companies will default in the next 6-12 month period, considering that many of the developers' liquidity remains weak, particularly those rated at a lower level, b3 or below. they have no liquidity and at the same time, they have high refinancing needs. without access to funding for refinancing, these companies see a refinancing risk. therefore, we expect that these types of companies will default. david: on the extent of recovery, is there an oversight via, a structural issue in the property sector? kaven: the supply situation is very dependent on location. in different regions, they will be having a different supply and demand dynamic taste on moody's understanding about the situation

emmanuel: the ongoing combination between bonds and equities. equities are building on the bonds. this has been driven by the bond yields. which makes sense because we have them being pressured. growth is slowing because central bankers are pushing at the rates, and bonds are more productive. we don't think the excess could be exposed to equities. i would reflect that geithner -- that a tighter monetary policy is on the economy. equities are still more challenging of the earnings on the macro level. this combination cannot keep going forward if profit growth is not growing. francine: really interesting. thank you. we will talk more about that and what kind of correction you would expect. coming up, hsbc profits top estimates. the lender commits to restoring dividends next year. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 13 minutes into european trading day on this august 1. i know it is monday. i cannot wrap my head around the fact it is already august 1. we have had a bit of reversal on european stocks. they were down and now they are rising, whether it is the risk

cpi caution also hit stocks which also hit bonds. as you said that is an inversion that continues with the guilt of 2.8 on the 10 year -- and i continues on the 10 year on 2.8. crypto margaret -- at the crypto market went up because there are reports that a major pipeline that is shipping energy, oil, gas from russia to europe was going to be shut down for a while. suddenly we heard from a pipeline operator that in several days it will be open again. west texas intermediate crude had a bounceback. in the futures market, they are starting to say it see what happens next. the big ones are inflation and what happens next there. heidi: more to expect from the key inflation numbers, we are joined by our cross asset manager reporters. how does it inform the fed from here? >> we are expecting headline inflation and signs of slowing on the year again from 9.1%, reflecting a dip in gasoline prices. the core reading is set to go in the opposite direction. wages are moving higher and even if we do get a suggestion or a hint of a peak in u.s. in

now we know that it is lower than the level of inflation , in fact, buying such bonds is trading at as, yes. which of these tips did you support, and maybe you have your own thoughts on how to fill the budget at the expense of music ? borrowing today plays an extremely large role. well, let's be honest about the fact that ukraine needs approximately 5 billion dollars per month to support our expenses, in fact, to support our state budget system, so in in this sense, bonds, uh, and foreign support is extremely important, and i would honestly talk about two points, the first is the usual mobilization from domestic sources and what concerns military bonds. this is absolutely correct. in the conditions of the war, that is, what it should be, because hmm, it is clear that there is a high level of uncertainty , including economic, but at the same time, we must also not forget about the help of our foreign partners, and obviously we need to be more active with them work and here, it seems to me, it is necessary to also say that the problem is related to the external enemy , first of all, it

recession is is directly good news for bonds and not good news for stocks. adding to the pain for stocks was the higher rate is the longer mantra, so he really pushback against the idea that rate cuts are going to come anytime soon. he says we do not want to have to cut rates and raise rates and cut rates. we want to be sure we killed the inflation piece before we do anything to raise -- bring rates lower. some of it was appealing to bonds, and in that scenario at 3% yield on 10 year debt looks good to many investors. kathleen: we can expect some kind of knee-jerk reaction is the asian trading day and we kick off, negative. beyond that, asian economies are diverse, we have the bank of korea and other countries that are stronger. how do you think this won't reverberate through asia particularly in a lasting way? >> the one thing at a very obvious he is going to reverberate through asia is a u.s. dollar. there was some thought we were getting peak inflation, therefore peak that aggressiveness. instead we saw the reactions in the yen and aussie, i expect we wil

we'll send you our exclusive bond guide free.h details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income, are federally tax-free, and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376 that's 1-800-376-4376. >>> let's talk about another category of stocks that have been struggling this year. video gamers the pandemic proving a big boost for the sector i can't tell you how many hours my son spent on them as people sought entertainment during shutdowns. bigger firms buying out smaller players attempting the best rivals, but now that growth seems to be slowing down our steve kovac has more >> hi, steve. >> hi, tyler i spent a few hours playing during the pandemic, too they're warning tough times ahead for the video industry video game spending falling then% according to research firm mpd and that s

also, bad for bonds and financial conditions being tightened. the signal from the bond market. it's not positive now. we did see the treasury market having its worse months since april -- worst month since april. >> across assets for august, the broadest cross asset drop since 1981. emily, where do we go from here? talking about morgan stanley. the call that we will not see a bottom for u.s. equities, the s&p in particular until september or december? >> exactly. that cross asset risk is really in play here for the month of august. stocks fell 4%. bonds and commodities also felt. it is trading in coronation, barclays notice. it is a key risk investing in -- investors are looking at coming the cross asset correlation between stocks, bonds, commodities at one of the highest levels in 17 years. as we look to september, that has historically been a tough month for stocks. now with correlations of this high traders are saying it could may be also be difficult for bonds and commodity then for any investor trying to use diversification for protection. they have a difficult road ahead.

the bond market is too negative.nticipating too much -- central blanks turn very quickly and we don't see it that way. we do think central banks are focusing on inflation and they have more runway than the bond market is currently allowing them or expecting them to have. contrary with the equity market, we have seen an enormous rally over the last month but we are also still down year to date. and that is similar to how i'm thinking about spreads actually. the rally is very strong over the last few weeks. but if we say the equity market is completely wrong we have forgotten what the equity market went through for the year and what we have been thinking about since the beginning of the year pretty much is recession. we have thought about inflation and recession and the supply chain issues. all of this should already be in the market. now to go and say well, the equity market is ignoring it all, it may have already anticipated or -- anticipated a large part of it and they are aligning themselves to say the recession ma

interestingly we saw bonds sell off going into the close along with stocks. a month end location stocks and bonds month to date and you'll see both negative, a balanced portfolio this year, continues to be under water and the weakness in bonds, i've been seeing this all year, it reduces the ability of investors to buy dips in stocks because their overall portfolio doesn't have that cushion that's being active that's where we're seeing a dump across the board into month end. volatility index relatively subdued even over the last couple of weeks as the s&p 500 has had its struggles. you see it's down today, 26. we'll see if we get a new month push of new money tomorrow the vix is come. we have the jobs friday. >>> as we head into the close, we're tracking for our fourth down day in a row. by the way, month to date, mike told you stocks and bonds are lower. guess what's higher? the u.s. dollar, dollar index 2.65% higher on the month. that is potentially one of the reasons why stocks have struggled on this higher interest rate fears. the dow down almost a full pe

there are many, many, many bonds of credit worthy solid entities where the bonds are relatively highl structure but where mutual fund selling has produced 15, 20-point declines in price. this is not pervasive. it's not like you can run into the market every day and buy what you want. these were readily available a few weeks ago and then backed off and now we're seeing more of those show up again. so i think we will see distressed opportunities some will be distressed pricing and some will be distressed issuers. we are starting to see a little bit of that creep into the market so there are a number of bonds trading down of companies facing pretty interesting financial challenges. >> which i know is an opportunity for you. would you tell people to stay away from high yield at the moment >> no, i wouldn't. i think it's actually run-of-the-mill high yield if you will we had sort of been avoiding anything that was in the index because the index was trading tight, the treasuries were trading tight. that has all changed certainly since june and in part since march. so i think cautious perio

if things that bond yields are rising much more quickly than the fundamentals would imply. there is a number of conditions on there such as viscous inability and, and it really just depends how strictly and easy reinforces those conditions. whether or not it will be helpful for countries like italy or not. it's very easy to see is on the governing council members warning putting up headline signals that they don't want to support some countries because of past the sustainability were is. and so who knows if it will help and who knows of it new. okay, christina, god declined to say whether italy is actually on the list given the political crisis. good. could italy even meet t p ice conditions? i'm guessing from what you were saying earlier that it possibly could. and what does all of this mean for investors? so at this point on, italy probably does meet the conditions yet, but of course we're heading for staff elections. so as we do had for snap collections, we expect italian bond yields to rise, and that's based on political uncertainty. and that's one of the things of the

brad: there is the australian bond market and korean bond market.oth have begun aggressively to contain inflation pressures. we have experienced the euro zone and the u.s. we see the bank of thailand tomorrow. the expectation is a 25 point increase there. being underway, there is an opportunity. >> liquidity pressures have not come to the fore in terms of being a massive risk. are you starting to see that change? brad: if you look at the demands of turnover and volume in the u.s. bond market, there are lows they have not experienced or some time. if we see risk off or volatility, the reaction in bond markets and equity markets will be more intense than previously. even now, i am looking at the daily ratings in u.s. treasuries relative to what is expected. they are higher than what you would expect due to a lower level of liquidity across the board. >> alliancebernstein's brad gibson, thank you for your time. get a roundup of stories you need to know in today's daybreak. terminal subscribers can get it at dayb . o'er the bloomberg anywhere app. c

in terms of bond markets in china's tenure yields 2.63 with the main lows. offshore at 680, once again for dollar china. david: it's closer than we saw, particularly when we sought a week back. we will be talking about nearing 2022 lows on that tear, dollar china, but the policy, the direction on the orientation of authorities does seem to suggest that southeast asia will be in focus. we could talk about it later, but what we hear out of indonesia and the president as it pertains to budget and its address there to the country. we get an update as far as that is concerned. singapore, we talk about the prime minister and waiting. filipina snapping its longest win streak since november. time for a healthy pause. let's bring in garfield reynolds to put it all together for us. garfield, if bond bulls were doubting looking at the inflation in china last week that they had room to run, certainly the data and also the orientation from policymakers suggest that this bond rally in china has room to go -- grow. garfield: definitely. it could be potentially at the globa

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charles: bond yields are cyclical.l evolve. economy issue number one for the midterms. a lot of other things are bubbling up. we had the supreme court decision on abortion. more recently this week the reaction to the raid on mar-a-lago. steve, let me ask you about that. the administration said it had no idea it is going down. if it is true it is worrisome. if they're not being truthful it is also worrisome. your thoughts on that? >> let me say one quick thing about the fed. why would flip think the fed would get this right when they have been wrong for the last 18 months. they said the inflation is transitory. i don't have a lot of trust of them. i think what happened, no matter what party you're in with respect to the raid on trump's home is really bad from a civil liberties point of view but the stupid thing for the fbi to do. what it has shown the american people how politicized this administration is in terms of politicizing the fbi, the justice department, and now the big fear that i have is they're going to do th

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