bostic on the scene for another two minutes those children would be lost. >> reporter: heroic actionsi was ready to lose my life that night >> reporter: the very definition of courage under fire steve paterson, nbc news >> thank goodness he was there. >>> beginning tomorrow, americans experiencing a mental health crisis have a new way to get help. hhs secretary xavier becerra announcing the launch of 988, the number that will connect callers to the national suicide prevention lifeline. becerra, however, acknowledging there's still a lot of work ahead. last month we reported on concerns that call centers in states that haven't passed 988 funding could become overwhelmed. >>> up next, how a simple game of catch turned into a major league moment that's "inspiring america." me of catch turned into a major league moment that's inspiring america. engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire before treating your chronic migraine— 15 or more headache days a month, each

. >> reporter: 25-year-old nick bostic saw the two-story home engulfed in flames.ren and their 18-year-old sister. he ran into the house finding three of the kids and the older teen on the second floor guiding them out asking if there was anyone left inside, and there was, 6-year-old kaylani. >> it was adrenaline. i high-tailed my butt into the house going around the side, up the patio. went to go downstairs, found kaylani in the smoke. continued upstairs, collapsed at the top stairs and then went to jump out the window but her leg got wrapped up around the curtain so i finished up busting the window out after i got her unwrapped then we jumped out. >> reporter: after jumping out, bostic is seen here handing off kaylani to a police officer before collapsing on the ground. >> i need oxygen. >> reporter: moments later he double-checks making sure she's okay. >> is the baby okay? please tell me that baby is okay. >> reporter: bostic taken to the hospital to recover from his injuries. bruised and burnt, bostic says he has a new lease on life. >> i'm ready to go play so

bostic was treated for smoke inhalation as well as cuts on his arm from bunching in a window but has been released from the hospital. congratulations saving people's lives. tomorrow on "special report" democrats and republicans compete for the asian-american vote. bring you that. that's it for this "special report," fair, balanced and still unafraid. "jesse watters primetime" is now. jesse, good to be back. >> it's good to have you back. back you were sorely missed, bret. >> bret: all right buddy, see you. >> jesse: growing up we all knew the kid who no one wanted to hang out with. the poor guy was always sitting alone at the lunch table. >> i don't know. i don't want him to get divorced in the first place. >> no? >> i love them both so much.

fad our all-star panel and rael bostic. "squawk box," and this is cnbc >>> welcome back to "squawk box. mixed picture here in terms of futures ago we await the 8:30 a.m. june jobs report we are looking at a negative open the ten-year yield right now just under 3%. we are 2.98% the two-year just above 3% take a check on oil this morning, we are back above 100 on wti we are up slight limit 102.86 right now. >> elon musk's purchase of twitter remains in the balance as he holds out, claiming twitter's numbers on spam accounts is not viable they reiterate that spam bots represent less than 5% of their user base. joining us now is aaron glick. and sara fisher. it would be minice, i'll start but, aaron, if elon had a grand plan i could have accomplished what he wanted to accomplish already in terms of, you know, just bringing the free speech discourse to the fore. we've done that. do you think he wanted it? do you think he want it is now and do you think the deal ever closes? >> we saw last week several options go up. playing for

raphael bostic said everything is in play.aid there's no reason not to do 75 basis points. swaps smart has gotten. dani: we are having -- i know how they put in their no overnight thing 100 basis points in july. the data is screaming 100. manus: we haven't seen a curve this inverted. we are going to do stocks and then write. -- and then rates. we will come back to the inversion. these are three stocks to watch on the date, you had three big, beefy announcements. deutsche telekom, ericsson and psm. i'm deutsche telekom, they are selling all the assets. dani: that is there tower of retaining 49% of it. manus: 11 billion euros, infrastructure sold. versus going to be a happy man. he managed to bump off the roster, not our of the deal. it is going to be 10.7 billion in cash. buying those assets. dani: ericsson, this is interesting, topline was ok, the bottom line, is amiss for second quarter profits. the ceo saying global supply chain situation remains challenging and inflationary pressures a strong. manus: you're going to see str

lisa: raphael bostic saying the u.s.s not in a recession, but sounds -- which sounds good, but bad news is good news. -- good news is bad news. the strength in the economy that is not the recession that seems to be suggested by the data is the reason the fed can talk about this, but here is the tortured aspect. they are trying to twist themselves and do an administration pivot and say, we understand people are hurting. this is a tough message to get right, what this seemed to underscore is there is a slowdown, it is not enough to stop us from raising rates. jonathan: the conclusion, there is more work to be done? kailey: the question is, how fast are they going to do this? bostic saying the pace and size of future hikes depends on the data. we are going to get more data an hour and 10 minutes from now, including that cost index. jonathan: those headlines from an interview with npr news this morning. anymore fed speak, we will bring you. we need to talk about a call the president had with the president of china. when we s

bostic off -- ushered four of them out of the house to safety. the girl in his arms and jumped out of the second-story window, breaking her fall and saving her life. >> the bottom of my hands are blistered. like i grabbed something hot. i recalled seeing flames through the window as i was punching it out, this temporary pain is worth it. it's worth every bit. dan: nick was treated for cuts, smoke inhalation, and first-degree burns. he called the whole incident ordinary. a break from his day job as a pizza maker at abidjan's. he did not hesitate to go help save those people. incredible. brave, brave, brave. ama: that is incredible, absolutely incredible. the weather. sandhya: we should be so thankful that we do not have to deal with this. hottest date ever on record at london's heathrow airport. 104.4 degrees fahrenheit. 40.2 degrees celsius today. dangerous heatwave wave is gripping parts of europe and they are not alone across the u.s. here. we have a scorcher as well. 108 tomorrow. 107, oklahoma city. really hot across this region even on thurs

bostic off -- ushered four of them out of the house to safety.jumped out of the second-story window, breaking her fall and saving her life. >> the bottom of my hands are blistered. like i grabbed something hot. i recalled seeing flames through the window as i was punching it out, this temporary pain is worth it. it's worth every bit. dan: nick was treated for cuts, smoke inhalation, and first-degree burns. he called the whole incident ordinary. a break from his day job as a pizza maker at abidjan's. he did not hesitate to go help save those people. incredible. brave, brave, brave. ama: that is incredible, absolutely incredible. the weather. sandhya: we should be so thankful that we do not have to deal with this. hottest date ever on record at london's heathrow airport. 104.4 degrees fahrenheit. 40.2 degrees celsius today. dangerous heatwave wave is gripping parts of europe and they are not alone across the u.s. here. we have a scorcher as well. 108 tomorrow. 107, oklahoma city. really hot across this region even on thursday. 97 in washington, d.c

we will see if anyone wants to up that ante, like raphael bostic. haidi: in terms of how traders and investors are parsing this, we saw that whipsaw market when it comes to equities. the yield curve inversion continues to be a major story that tells us how much nervousness there is about this. katie: i really think it was the bond market where all the action was. you have the s&p 500 figure -- finish about .5% lower after a big intraday reversal. had turned positive at one point, that went away. the big story was in the bond market. we break it down, you saw the front end rising as traders priced in the supersized hikes that kathleen was talking about. if you look further out the curve, it was a bid into bonds, sort of like a waterfall, the yields falling in longer duration debt. you put that together, it's an inverted curve to the tune of over 20 basis points. the readthrough there is investors are concerned basically at the expense of inflation is growth, that this economy is not going to be able to withstand really some of those big, big rate hik

bostic said 3%, and bullard yesterday said 3.5%, on half a point kind of separating the doves and theks right now. i think the fed has an appointment with 3% it's going to make, and the question for the market, which i think is already being discounted is whether or not it has to go further than 3.5 or 4% let me say one other thing about the economy right now. we have so little visibility into the most important aspect of this economy right now, which is the service sector. you have this transition from goods into services. we just do not have good data. i follow jpmorgan credit card spending data. it's showing pretty good spending, and not much klein when it comes to retail. this is the seven-day average data i'm not necessarily seeing all of that weakness that some of the bears are picking up on. >> you know -- >> go ahead, yeah. >> you know, i think some of that, though, is a recovery in services spending, as people finally go on the vacation they've been itching for for the last two years, we are seeing a post-covid surge in some service areas that i expect to show up in credit ca

bostic says he is comfortable with 75 basis point hike.economy can handle it and is pointing towards the strong labor market. the jobs data out on friday was quite strong. unemployment is still at a 50 year low. we are looking at 8.8% this week according to expectations which is skyhigh even if there are indications it has. most fed officials have signaled 75 basis points would be their preference and most have priced in for a 75 basis point hike. all indications are that the fed seems to be on track for the 75 basis points. mr. bostic says he does not see the case for going more than 75. shery: especially as we continue to see the red-hot inflation numbers. and a current, our chief mobile correspondent -- enda curran. retail investors are sour on twitter after the musk takeover deal falls flat. we look at the next moves from each side. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: asian stocks down 0.3%. the declines being led by -- stocks. we are seeing energy though holding on to some gain. despite the fact that we do have oil prices continuing their dec

. >> bret: finally tonight, a special report salute when nic bostic noticed a two story building was saved four children and 18-year-old. lafayette, indiana police body cam images show 25-year-old domino's pizza driver carrying a 6-year-old child out of the blaze. bostic was treated for smoke inhalation as well as cuts on his arm from bunching in a window but has been released from the hospital. congratulations saving people's lives. tomorrow on "special report" democrats and republicans compete for the asian-american vote. bring you that. that's it for this "special report," fair, balanced and still unafraid. "jesse watters primetime" is now. jesse, good to be back. >> it's good to have you back. back you were sorely missed, bret. >> bret: all right buddy, see you. >> jesse: growing up we all knew the kid who no one wanted to hang out with. the poor guy was always sitting alone at the lunch table. >> i don't know. i don't want him to get divorced in the first place. >> no? >> i love them both so

you get a pull, just a really boise off the floor face any bostic. innumerable narrative is possible. you know phones when you go to pop off what you prefer the most a nipple which are because it but the most are now both, both she to pick us up don't store. i mean, you're sure to weapon you the listening to that, to quit bigger company minus the reports there been, will be numbers to the monopoly while in light major reasoning. you store, i'm jewel, if you would, you put the problem to she would you, would you call a couple of my to put jewelry bosom, which means that along with some student visit numbers and we'll get those will be worked on both with both beats. you will to, to work from when you look a little bit, but we'll look at them. i think it probably is organized but rich. zachary, publish you on where you basically watch the with me. ah, you can you by meters to what you see fit all my students to load up or what did you currently group? ok. just one is almost a year to be a severe them or a school as opposed to craig e o v m still e g t, a truck of william browning, who w

you're okay. >> here. >> that's a picture there of bostic and his wounds. he's home from the hospital now but police say he did get seriously injured during the rescue the 6-year-old was miraculously mostly uninjured emergency officials bflew him t a hospital for smoke inhalation and a cut to one of his arms the city's mayor recognizing him for his bravery and a local summer baseball team set to honor him at a game next month and maybe the new york yankees could be the next. what an incredible story. >>> 40 seconds left on a race to the finish president biden says he confronted saudi crown prince muhammed bin salman about the killing of jamal khashoggi during his controversial trip to saudi arabia. >>> senator joe manchin has torpedoed his party's plan to combat climate change. after months of negotiations, the democrat from west virginia says he won't support climate funding or raising taxes on businesses and the wealthy it's a crushing blow for the president's domestic agenda. >>> and the secret service under intense scrutiny for deleting text messages fr

if you look at teddy roosevelt he is of course remembered for trust bostic. and in particular in squirrels, meatpackers, standard oil in the courts. but he had insight that was brother. not only was it necessary to vigorously enforce trust laws is critical to reshape the regulatory to work with congress them too. rules of the road, rules of the rail. keep early. is there a merger position of privilege in public to discriminate. in this basic insight i think is more relevant today than ever. we abstinent basin economy with the challenges that are possible for roosevelt to contemplate their time. there are familiar echoes about the need for a broader approach to competition policy. and for president biden, and that and then early president, the competition policy was an instant indispensable part of the strategy. for the new emerging challenges we face. he believes it has directed all of us to look at driving structural change to promote competition across the economy. i have been a conviction will get rewarded, greater productivity, or opportunity of the count

. >> reporter: 25-year-old nick bostic just happened to be driving by. >> it was adrenaline.door. up the patio, wanted to go downstairs, found kaylani in the smoke, continued upstairs, collapsed at the top stairs and then went to jump out the window. >> reporter: you can see him collapse on the ground after handing off 6-year-old kaylani barrett to a police officer. >> i need oxygen. >> reporter: and minutes later making sure the young girl he just saved was okay. >> is the baby okay? >> we just dropped everything we were doing and took off running. >> reporter: david and tiera barrett were on a date night when he got the call from his 18-year-old daughter seionna. the hois house was on fire. with all four kids and her friend inside. we're hearing from them for the first time. >> i saw fire in the living room and ran upstairs like yelling and then i went and grabbed my baby sister. we started running down the stairs and that's when we saw nick and, um, we couldn't find kaylani. >> reporter: bostic helped them out the door before searching desperately for kaylani who the famil

let's look at atlanta fed president bostic repeating his support for 75 basis point hike. rates could go up about 3% without risking a recession, aggressively to list thing interest rates. to detain the highest inflation for decades. bank customers in china protesting a billion-dollar scandal which will be repaid in advance. at least ¥50,000 -- hundreds of customers rallied of the weekend, demanding the return of up to tens of billions of yuan of bitcoins. china pending the u.s. of blueprint for the coexistence in the asia-pacific, the chinese prancer made the proposal during a meeting with his u.s. counterpart antony blinken, around upholding region -- current regional frameworks, and each other's interests. taiwan's vice president in tokyo visiting to pay respects to the former vice -- former prime minister shinzo abe. his most senior taiwanese official to visit since 1972. the trip and cited angry response from china. abe was a popular figure in taiwan for support of the island. james webb space telescope reveals the highest resolution views of the distant universe ever

raphael bostic says the u.s. economy is "a ways from recession." the central bank has further to go to get inflation under to go and that how much rates go up depends on how the economy evolves. apple offered just good enough news to by itself time. their quarterly revenue and profit merrily beating estimates and iphone sales held up better than expected. tim cook told bloomberg apple is dealing with a slower economy but expect revenue to pick up in the coming months. let's get to big tech earnings. amazon shares also up after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter revenue. james lee, a research analyst, joins us now. he has a buy rating on amazon and $155 rice target. how much of -- price target rate how much of it was ramping down expectations and delivering above them versus a really good strong topline beat? james: right, things for having me. i think results are better than feared. going into the quarter, sentiment was pretty low. and it is pretty much in line operating 10% low, and revenue growth did have the typical quarter. we have t

as the numbers cross, the fed president john williams will be speaking in puerto rico and raphael bostic:45 a.m at 10:00 a.m., we get the may wholesale inconvventory report said that will stop you in your tracks. >>> to help cap off your week and trading day ahead, let's bring in simeon hyman. simeon, great to have you on the program. what are you watching most closely right now? >> i think what we have seen is the old adage that the cure for high prices is high prices we'll probably see a bit of a weaker jobs number today inflation expectation has been coming down steadily for months. the headline is oil pulled back. if you look at the break evens, they have been coming down since april. in fact, the ten-year break even is close to 2% the two-year break even pulled back that is the good news. that is increasing concerns of economic weakness. >> do you feel the stock market is closing in on some kind of a bottom maybe not this is the bottom, but getting close? >> the question he is what's priced in. here's one way to think about it we hhave decent fundamentals crazy low leverage be he lo

we heard from raphael bostic being very supportive of a 75 basis point hike at the july meeting. china's inflation hit a two-year high. what other strong economy in the world would have -- would give to have an inflation rate that low? or prices continue to drive inflation higher. food price inflation was 2.9% versus 2.3 in may. a core up 1.0 percent after being up 1.9% year-over-year. the bottom line is, covid zero policies continue to suppress demand. economists expect a contraction in second-quarter gdp for china. the head of pboc said they aren't worried about stimulating growth or fighting inflation. it's more about boosting credit. we will have more later in the show. starting off with a top story. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken revealing president biden and xi jinping are set to speak again in the coming weeks. for more let's bring in u.s. national editor craig gordon. greg, what are the competing forces biden is weighing here? craig: he is thinking very seriously about tariffs. the challenge is key is facing 2% inflation in the u.s.. he would love to have the chin

dramatically, sara there's a huge surge in the outlook for 100 basis point hike after the president bostic saying that everything is in play when asked if the fed could do more than 75 basis points this contrasts with his comments on monday where he said it was not his base case to do more than 75 but, of course, the hot cpi number changed his view and you take a look, we were at a 3% probability of 100% hike before the cpi. after the cpi, it went to 38%. after the beige book came out and bostick spoke, it's the odds-on choice now 51%. put it all together, the odds-on bet of the market is for an astonishing 175 basis points of tightening over the next two months the move coincides with a stagflationary beige book. substantial price increases reported across all districts and five districts reporting increased risk of recession. just moments ago fed president barkan on the wire saying the june cpi report strengthens the case of the fed to be resolute on inflation and the fed should focus on inflation and not growth >> steve liesman, thank you. we'll continue with neal, mike santoli still wi

the atlanta fed president raphael bostic, has repeated his support for another 75-basis point hike atext fomc meeting. he says the central bank can raise interest rates to 3% without sparking a recession. policymakers pivoted to fish aggressively lifting interest rates, as they work to tame the hardest inflation in decades. taiwan's president visited tokyo to pay respects. he is the most senior taiwanese official to visit japan since 1972. the trip is likely to elicit an angry response from china, which claims taiwan as part of its territory. abe was a largely popular figure in a one, for his support -- figure in taiwan for his support of the island. members have voted to strike over a pay dispute in the train. it could bring the network to a standstill for the second time in months. the union says drivers agreed to walkouts. members of another union also voted to support strikes. travel was halted in june by a three-day railway strike. liquidators off prep crypto hedge fund three ares capital say the fund's founders have not been cooperating and that their whereabouts are unknown. re

kailey: headlines out of rafael bostic, talking about how the jobs report is sing the economy is strongng they can move 75 basis points at the next meeting and not damage the economy. how much economic damage do we need to see before it does real damage to earnings growth, that by and large, given the far side input cost pressures we have seen, have been able to hang in there? michael: there is going to need to be a quite a bit of damage to hit earnings growth. when you hit high inflation, you have high revenues. revenue growth is going to be strong. you've got to collapse that margin line. -- has been good about taking that hit in stride. you've got to collapse that margin line to get a hit on eps. tom: are you seeing companies adapt? i am a huge believer that, given the cards dealt, companies adapt. are you seeing within the microcosm of the zillion companies in america, are you seeing the beginnings of adapting? michael: the one that sticks out in my head is amazon. they put that 5% surcharge on for inflation a couple months ago, and that is an example of one of the biggest companies

by the time firefighters in lafayette, indiana, arrived on the scene, nicolas bostic had pulled four fire as he was driving by. and then he rushed back into the burning home when he heard that a 6-year-old was still trapped inside. and then, victor, he grabbed her, punched out a second story window with his hand, and jumped with her tucked under his arm. >> it's remarkable. now, bostick suffered serious injuries to his arms and smoke inhalation. this is the police body cam video the moment bostick hands the rescued girl off to the first responders. just a guy passing by saves these five. >> and how can he be that brave? i mean, first of all, it's a house on fire, and he runs back in when he hears there's a 6-year-old trapped inside. and he gets her. so he used to be a delivery man. i'm not sure what he will be in the future, but he will have job offers. >> a superhero today. "the lead" with jake tapper starts right now. >>> yes, it's summer. yes, it's supposed to be hot, but it is never been like this. "the lead" starts right now. extreme heat alerts in 21 countries in europe and mor

this call came after the inflation data this week and before rafael bostic left that possibility in remarkst the markets to price in the chance of a full-point hike for the first time as steve liesman reported at the top of the hour markets interestingly, recovering the dow is only down 69 points and let's bring in robert, nomura's senior u.s. economist good to see you. even though the cpi is higher than expected the numbers look better over the last number of weeks and so why do you think the fed would increase the rates right now? >> powell told us at the june meeting when he was asked about a hundred basis points, you know, they'll be watching the data and they will react appropriately. we think this morning's report underscored just very broad inflationary pressures across the economy. i think for us what we paid the most attention to was rent inflation in particular which was correlated with these trend inflation measures those picked up even more than we expected and we had a pretty aggressive rent inflation forecast for a while with inflation expectations market-implied measures have

where bostic rlaid it out clev cleverly >> we're going to get comments about all this on wednesday. one way or the other. what is your sincense of what cs after this >> a couple things first we have to see if there's any dissent. so i think that's the first question when we'll see tight consensus around this or a few outliers that may be the precursor to something new. secondly, i think the story is, i think chairman powell's going to be a little careful about putting too many numbers out there as that has proven in the past to not be very accurate they do not want to signal at this stage that they think the job is done, because think know it's not so i think think want to keep expectation in the market up 50-75 basis points for the next meeting. let the data come in and then decide >> we're really grappling with two extremes one is the stop and go policies that got us into trouble back in the '70s it seemed like being data dependent. and we hear most of us probably think that's the way to go with the fed, if things, if it's biting, it seem the like things are showing and unemployme

president rafaephael bostic was asked about whether the fed could do a full percentage point rate increase, and he said quote, everything is in play. the problem is the harder the fed slams the brakes on the economy, the greater the risk of an accident that causes a recession. the fed insists they can pull this off. get a soft landing, get inflation under control without causing a recession. i think that job just got tougher today. >> matt egan, thank you. >> thank you. >>> let's discuss with former labor secretary under president clinton, robert reach, and the author of the system, "we rigged it, how we fix it." >> mr. secretary, welcome back. >> hi, victor. >> your reaction to the number, the estimate was 8.8% year over year, your thoughts on what we know about the economy? >> well, it's terrible. and if you break it down, it becomes even more disturbing. i mean, obviously energy and food are global phenomenon. we see inflation all around the world and we see energy and food inflation, especially because of what's going on in ukraine and around the world. china has lock downs that are af

nick bostic lead for kids to safety and then ran back into the houses cooped up a six or a little girl was still trapped, jumping through a second story window to save her life. none of the children or hurt but he suffered severe smoke inhalation, a broken arm and some cats on his hand. but he says he is grateful he could save those kids lives. wow! but a hero. jury selection starts mar in the contempt of congress trial of steve bannon. the former trump advisor faces misdemeanor charges for failing to comply with a subpoena from the january six committee. the panel wants to question him on his whereabouts the night before the riot, when trump supporters tried to persuade republican lawmakers to overturn the election. the committee also knows that he spoke with trump by phone at least twice on january 5th, but for saying on his radio show all hell would break loose on january 6th. joining me now, barbara mcquade, former u.s. attorney in michigan and now a law professor at the university of logical and msnbc legal analyst. and in a very pretty backdrop on the sunday afternoon. thank you

we've heard suggesting 100 basis points, i've also heard a number of voices, including president bosticm atlanta, mentioning 75 and his argumentation about not reeling the market is more likely the consensus point of view while it's a close call and there will be discussion of 100 basis points, i think 75 is the more likely outcome. >> what's your take on treasury yields and where they stand right now, roger it's been a roller coaster ride. we certainly had a lot of volatility when it comes to u.s. treasuries specifically. the 10-year yield is at 2.77%. if borrowing costs come down, the fed is trying to dampen demand so it's working against the fed. the fed doesn't have the tools to fight the 10-year yield, though, does it? so what does it do >> three points to make. one, it has been extremely volatile i think the volatility is a variety of uncertainties about incoming data. we see a very strong labor report inflation continues to be an issue. on the other side some softening starts to emerge here and there. we see different commentary from fed officials. i think there's an uncertainty

and that hero you just heard about, nick bostic joins me exclusively right now. nick, great to see you. so as i understand the story, you come to the house, right? it's on fire. you don't know if people are inside or outside. you run in and you find out that what the family was sleeping when this fire was burning. >> yeah, i'm assuming the family was asleep. it took a few moments before people came flying out of the top stairs doorr. but yeah, i went in intohe the back door, was hollering if anybody was in there and i made it like three steps up the staircase and then outpoured for the the the older the for the children. other in the six year old, you know. so i turned around in front ofar them and let them out the back door and i asked him who else was left in there, if anybody, and they said that the two year old orer now the six year old ws in there. so i went back in there and accounted for him. yeah. tell me about that because this is when the smoke is all over inside the house. the flames are starting to shoot up. >> tell me about going back in for the six

you have to squint down the road to say, but we'll talk about it foreman with rafael bostic on "squawkox. guys >> the past few mornings we've been talking about commodity prices falling, corn, for example, but you can look at any number of commodities, and see charts back to levels we haven't seen in some time. how does that figure into the fed's thinking >> maybe it's going to fit into the thinking, because just as surely as the surge did as well, it means you'll have initially it takes time, you'll have maybe some of the boil come off on the producer prices, and then work the way down to consumer prices. remember, guys, a key in a competitive market, a higher than norm at price shall not stand, and the question is whether or not you get these price decreases at the producer level working their way down certainly it should take some of the boil off the high inflation rates coming down the road and whether or not it reverses i mean, that's a longer way to go guys >> steve, appreciate that. thanks for setting us up david lobe oa lebovitz and michd join us this morning i'm looking at a j

choice with a lag, and significant and bankrupt changes can be unsettling to households and businesses bosticre significant hikes are ahead. david koston, always a pleasure to have you. d.k., welcome back >> in general, given your targets and jan hatzius' view -- >> i think you want it trading in a range of 3700 to 3900 this is basically because the extent that equity prices rise and valuations increase, that would be tan machined to licenings financial conditions as a result you accepted that -- that's sort of more of a concern from a prospective forward return, and we went to the lower end, it's more attractive. you think about the risk to the down side would put the overall index, perhaps a 3150 to the extent it would look at a recession in 2023, but as you indicate, sort of the increase in probability of that >> that was 225 times 14, right? was it a 14 multiple. >> we think the idea of the market was basically derated, to around 16 times possibly now to the extent you have a recessionary scenario, you can see the multiple go down slightly the idea of earnings prospect would also be degra

after saving four of the five children, bostic ran back inside to rescue the last trapped child.ffered from severe smoke inhalation as a result but all five children are going to be okay. what an incredible young man. another wave of shark sightings at beaches across the northeast. everyone was out of the water yesterday after two sharks were seen off the coast of rock away beach in queens, new york. three other beaches on long island in cape cod's nassau beach were temporarily closed for swimming last weekend as if continue to monitor shark activity close to the shore. and nascar drivers will be refusing their enengines and roaring by skyscraper in chicago. host the first cup series. bubba wallace got a sneak peek driving around downtown chicago in iconic mcdonald's car. the race is set for july 1st 2nd next year and help urine usher in nascar's 75th anniversary something to look forward to. >> ainsley: go. i know you have an apartment in chicago we should go. >> carley: let's do it. marking my calendar right now. >> ainsley: thanks, carley. a crew member for the tv show law and

rafael bostic, what he said was this, when he was asked about the possibility of even looking at 100and he basically said that everything is in play, right? he has to understand the outlook and said, i was going to observe and adapt, and now that he's seen the cpi report, he goes on to say that he's going to see if there has to be any kind of change. mary daly, new york times spoke to her and apparently she said, san francisco fed president, 100 basis points in the realm of possibilities. to me this is a big shift in it has a lot to do with what was said, how this was a pretty bad report, no sign of good news in it, this is something that's really to be thinking. >> nothing good in that inflation report. our global economics reporter kathleen hays. take a look at what we are tracking when it comes to the latest developments in crypto. celsius is what we are watching at the moment, the crypto lender filing for bankruptcy in the latest sign of a cash process. filing for bankruptcy in the southern district of new york. this was about one month after they had withdraws joining a lot of o

without really saying anything different than, we have to be -- get the rate much higher sooner but bosticgoing 100, not trying to endorse a super size you imagine they wouldn't want to go the second meeting in a row being blindsided by a number and having to quickly reset market expectations through a journalistic channel as happened last time. >> yes it's been -- it's a dicey game by the way, i tweeted earlier this morning a photo that was taken in times square 20 years ago today. me and mike with the dow futures at 8,000. >> yeah. >> we were talking about pfizer pharmacia. >> at the time, maybe the biggest merger at that point, which is lost in the midst of history at this point. you know, in terms of the reactions to it, everyone is saying, wow, dow, 8,600. now it's 3,600 it's a 6.5% annualized rate of gain that's what the market does with dividends, it's like 9%. i think it's great gives people a mental accounting. >> the other reaction is how much you and i have aged or not aged. >> i think not >> 20 years. >>> dow's up 325 we're back in a minute do you have a life insurance policy y

when the atlanta fed president rafael bostic was asked about cpi and did he still indoors 75 and if hewas asked about a hundred and he said everything would be in play and it was off to the races. so it was no surprise that the federal reserve board governor, when he was getting prepared to march at an event in idaho, actually included this in his speech. 75 basis points out it would do would have to be 100. listen to what he says. >> based on the labor market, i just don't see -- it's inconceivable to have a recession within unemployment rate of 3.6%. kathleen: he also went on to say that he right now is supporting 75 basis point hike. clearly he is watching the question of recession. he also said that, as for 100 basis points, it's not where he is now, he's definitely at a loss for the numbers in the next two weeks like retail sales, housing and inflation, jim bullard was speaking to nikkei news, and he clearly enjoys the five basis point rate hike, it has virtues, he notes that it's already the rate hike, and this is for his goal, which is probably 3.5%, whatever he calls neutral by

control it is a positive outlook, but you have to squint to see it of the we will talk with raphael bostic tomorrow. melissa. >> when you pair that with michigan and even some data out of the conference board that there should be concern that is happening. the fed will actually have to keep pushing on the hikes. >> here is the good news, melissa. the good news is that inflation expectations look to be very tied to gas prices if you get gas prices down, which i know that is a big if in this world today with supply and refining problems. inflation expectations can come down it is a real conundrum for the fed which has to target an expectation that is based on a commodity which has little control over >> maybe those were hawkish comments at the last minute. that's where i got what i said the other day. about how much expectations have come down. just the murphy's law that they will be, you know, not tight enough initially and then one thing they get tight and they stay tight that is the way human nature is. stay at the party too long oil is below 100 the ten-year is not continuing to 3.5 how

three fed speakers did not endorse the full percentage point move the atlanta fed bostic said everything is in play. now the rise of 3.7% is re restricted territory these probabilities are subject to enormous volatility as the market swings. fears of recession and inflation and back and forth this volatility is reflective of fed policy jay powell or anyone else wants to rein in market expectexpecta they he have not weighed in yet. joe, we started the week talking about backing off rate hikes >> we did. i just googled monoposy. >> it's a nice word. >> it is we started a lot of companies and that situation started on january 21st, 2020 is that when the companies started doing these things it didn't seem like it was happening for the last 20 years. not as much. >> no, not in january. it's a process, joe. >> is it getting worse does that explain any of this? you know what? i didn't want to go there. i like the word. i like words like monoposy is there any way of a capitalist collusion and trying to gouge ppi numbers for their own gains? is that here or is this organic? >> joe, you are so goo

favor of a 1% in recent they did not rule it out, saying that everything was in place for rafael bosticaccording to reports from "the wall street journal." we don't have to make that decision today," set another fed official. mitchell out of new jersey, good morning, you are. caller: from my perspective living in new jersey, i live in a very populated area near manhattan. what i am seeing, my anecdotal experience, the prices are extremely high for basic commodities like gas and. and a lot of other things. but i am also seeing roadways packed with cars. i mean we just got through the july 4 weekend and there was traffic and congestion all throughout the area. i know, i drove in it. the restaurants are packed. the airports are packed. the stores are crowded. you have this kind of dichotomy of people feeling the pinch but no real letup amongst people's spending. it's definitely different from what i experienced, let's say in 1980 under the reagan administration when the prices were really high. also employment was weak. those were commensurate problems. my feeling is that it is going to ta