discloses more trading violations according to the disclosure, bostic and his spouse made trades on may 2nd, 2022 ranging in amounts from $1,000 to $50,000. the trades occurred during a two-week blackout period before the federal open market committee meeting. frank, last october, bostic disclosed similar trades in previous years adding he does not intend to conceal or side step his transparency. >> a story we will continue to follow throughout the day. silvana henao, thank you >>> turning back to the markets. they are gearing up for the final trading day of the week with a record run of the dow and s&p both surpassing records for june in a typical june, the dow shed .2% on average. so far this month, the average is up 4.4% similar story for the s&p 500. rallying 5.5% blowing past the average. joining me to discuss is jay woods. jay, great to have you here in the house. >> great to be here. >> we broke down the markets which continue p to to rally the rally that we're seeing, what does that say about investor sentiment about the dot plot and jay powell? >> the market doesn't care na

bostic may not be the only person who thinks have done enough. so while you have their voice is not sounding uniform, since you guys can't come to a consensus, there's no reason for us to become too aggressive in pushing for higher rates in the market. so they've got quite a lot of work to do to be on the same page and really convince everybody that we are going ahead for at least two more rate hikes. dani: mark, thank you so much, mark cranfield. speaking of rate hikes, after the may inflation, cpi is still on the rise. we're going to get a hike, but what are the chances it is a jumbo hike? >> it will take rates to 4.75%. markets do see a 40% chance of a .5% hike. as you say, we've had the fourth upside inflation surprise in a row yesterday. that's why they need to get a grip on this problem now. this is why economists are not ruling out 50 basis points but they say it's more likely in august because then you will have a press conference, you have the forecast, it's easier to walk back the language of acting forcefully. by the august meeting, th

bostic and goolsbee yesterday were kind of interesting to me in that both of those guys ended up beingal hikes, while bostic talked about no cuts, he didn't seem on board with additional hikes the thing to think about here, two-thirds of the committee has two hikes built in and i think all that's happening here, the only difference between boe, ecb and the fed is the pace of hiking and the reason is because we're far ahead of those two other central banks, and we have a lower inflation rate. >> makes sense thank you very much. steve liesman. we're going to hear more from chair powell along, of course, with ecb president christine lagarde and others next week just to reiterate, the ecb forum on central banking like the jackson hole of ecb in portugal, wednesday, during this time one sector in focus for regulator and the fed has been real estate and financials just want to mention a note this morning, morgan stanley, betsy gracic, lowering estimates due to its exposure to real estate and some of the comments, the ceo made on this show, very recently she takes down full-year earnings by 1

the nasdaq was down 1.2% it came while jay powell was testifying and bostic had comments as well over the future of interest rates. i heard different interpretations of the bostic comments he said he thinks he is fine let it ride and see what happens. some people say that is bullish. he said he is taking the idea of rate cuts off the table for next year some people pointed to that as the point when stocks actually started to sell off in the afternoon. >> until next year >> taking them off the table next year for next year. no cuts this year. no cuts next year. >> 5 or 6 is where we will be? >> if you believe bostic is the prime mover. >> the idea -- you will hear from a lot of fed hawks today. you have mester annd waller and an others anything else you hear may concern you a little bit about what is happening next not to mention there is not a consensus on the committee it highlights that more than anything >> i thought all of the comments powell made so far and we will see about today are on the hawkish category. >> a couple of hikes coming. i saw people saying jay powell caused the

bostic of atlanta saying is less urgency out there. do you color the state -- collar state strategy around those polarities? marvin: it certainly indicates -- obviously mr. dudley is no longer on the fed but this is playing out. it was constructive given where the estimates were and where the dots went by think you have the broader view amongst the committee. on the one side, if you are thinking 4.5%, you are thinking the fed will not be successful in reining in. i think the fed has been successful in saying there are things out there whether it is student loans or credit deterioration or the broad slowing of the economy. this will start to have an impact in the next six to 12 months. katie: i want to talk about the fact it was a unanimous decision but then you look at the comments and there is a clear goal. marvin: we will get the minutes soon. i love to see what they say there. i do not buy there was notice that? i think they did a disservice by putting out that message because it feels they are managing the process. i don't know if

bailey, santoli, we appreciate it >> now to some new comments from atlanta fed president raphael bostic let's bring steve liesman in for those details. hi, steve. >> actually, two fed presidents weighing in with a more dovish outlook on rate hikes after testimony by jay powell suggested the fed may raise interest rates two more times. bostick saying in an essay he just released he's putting himself firmly in the wait and see camp when it comes to raising interest rates he said the fed should let rate hikes work through the economy, see if they bring down inflation before deciding what to do next. good reason he said to expect policy tightening to be more effective in coming months the real effects of tightening, quote, are only just beginning to take hold chicago fed president austan goolsbee, while powell was speaking, saying he had not decided what to do in july but that it was reasonable for the fed to be on a reconnaissance mission now. he agreed with bostic that the fed had raised rates a lot and those rate hikes needed some time to play out in the economy. he indicated he wanted s

remember, and bostic said this today, that there's a thing when bostic calls passive tightening, which is this. as the inflation rate comes down, and the fed interest rate remains the same, the real rate, or -- becomes more restrictive, so -- for example, if you have a 5% inflation rate and a 5% funds rate, you're at zero, but if you have a 4% inflation rate and a 5% funds rate, all of a sudden, you're at positive real 1% >> all right >> how is that for quick math on national television? >> excellent and the hand gesture, that really helped us, too. steve, thank you steve liesman. >> couple things here, david rosenberg had a note out saying 90% of the time during rate hiking cycles, the stock market rises into it. >> into the cycle or through the cycle. >> through the cycle, and it sells off afterward. the fed funds rate in 2018, the last time powell was raising, got to 2.5%. and we knew that inflation was 2% -- >> 50 basis points 2 1/2 -- >> you can do math >> sorry, sorry, sorry so, it was -- the point is, it was -- all right, sorry. you know what i was thinking of -- the ten-year go

but for foundry bostic, who by about single cent option. so it's increasingly hard to find qualified work cuz many of his employees come from this region. give us an incomplete inductive. we need to ensure that as world champions and productivity, the structural components we make here. also stay here, it makes no sense of these parts that we need for the energy transition and economic transformation in the next 10 to 12 years. all are produced in india or china, you know. yeah, i understood that the competition is gaining ground as a country's kind of a cheap a power younger what forces and lower taxes than in germany making mid sized companies had less and less competitive in a recent index on the attractiveness of the 21 countries as a business location, the usa, canada, and sweden top the list, germany run 18. well, he came in last and that's the germany. it has to be extremely attractive as a production location because there weren't many other alternatives. countries couldn't compete with germany because they weren't at our level, the

lisa a: raphael bostic is coming up. he has been dovish. 7:30 am is that speech. 1:40 pm, loretta mester, cleveland fed president. this is potentially going to be the key data point. u.s. manufacturing and services pmi for june. it was ugly in europe, particularly in france, where they are projecting recession. service pmis is rolling over. this is one of the key moments to watch in the u.s. today, the republican faith and freedom coalition kicks off in washington, d.c. then, you get a sense of all the different 2024 aspirational presidents. the former president donald trump will be among them. and x vice president mike pence. upward. nikki haley, chris christie, and ron desantis are among those. tom: it looks like hollywood squares. i am looking for nipsey russell to run at any point. we are going to focus on the debate over the conversation on recession. we have been wrong for 18 months over recession as a society. joining us is greg bonnell, u.s. head of equity and strategy at bnp paribas with serious study at liverpo

raphael bostic says they could definitely pause but if there is another move it will be a hike.e seems to be in that count -- cap as well and tom barker from the richmond fed similarly says he is open to watching the data. the up -- employment report was stronger than what was forecast and now we wait for the cpi report tuesday. they are all open to a pause. now, the hikes are the people that want to go ahead. jim bullard from the st. louis fed, loretta mester from the cleveland fed, neel kashkari from minneapolis, lori logan from dallas. they are concerned more needs to be done. that is why some think there could be a policy to center two. that is not what fed chair's want to see. we will look at what is in focus, the dot plot, every three months, the summary of economic projections it's revised. from their outlook on gdp, employment, unemployment, and inflation. then they say, this is what we will think rick -- we think rates will do. here the idea is simple. they thought that by the end of this year, the core pce deflator would be down about 3.2%. well, it's a long way from t

above 5% and they are more concerned about doing what they have to do you see the debate playing out bostic an essay saying he wants to pause he said we have done a lot of hard work and let's wait and see what it adds up to you have differences of opinion although you had an unanimity and all policy decisions have been unanimous. >> does that run contrary to the dot plot with two more snhikes? >> i think it means they have gone to -- think of it as 25 basis points every meeting this year now they are doing 12.5 basis points every meeting they are spreading it out by going at every other meeting you can call it 12.5 miles an hour instead of 25 miles per hour it is interesting to see if 5.6 is where they stop with the two more increases i think where data dependence comes in here and if something happens that tells them the terminal rate is too high or too low, the data will influence the terminal rate here and not so much the speed or what you do the next meeting >> i want to talk about the testimony related to banking and especially banking capital this one quote from your story i heard jay

with the release of flash manufacturing pmi for june we get earnings from carmax and speeches from bosticay break until july 10th. >>> the s&p and nasdaq are poised to break the win streaks. speaki the risk to stocks to the second half of the year is looking unattractive. >> i think big picture with the exception of tech which is important and a.i., i think continues to decelerate. i think the market is at a point where it is pricing in a rosy picture. i just think that the back drop is challenging as we go to the second half. >> for more on the trading day, let's bring in greg sarian founder eof 213 >> good morning, frank >> do you see a pull back in the second half of the year or do you see problems with stocks >> it is important for investors to consider that markets are gaining more clarity given the robust returns in the last six weeks, we could see a dip. the market is a leading indicator. we see debts move further down the road we have clarity the fed has with two more hikes in it we are starting to see the inflation data continue to flatten. our view is the next 6 to 12 months tha

keith, as russia also contend with a tax on its own territory. wagner bostic who goes and tells the russian defense ministry to protective order region with ukraine for hill re deploy his mercenaries to defend russian territory. also coming.

for instance, bostic the atlanta fed president, raphael bostic, speaks again he's had a lot of commentse are paying attention to him as sort of center, although he's leaning dovish getting inflation down is job one. the most recent comments inflation is too high. i'm trying to minimize the dislocation as we get inflation under control. i am hopeful remember his stance is, we kind of stay at this level. he says the bar is high to raise rates further, so not echoing what his colleagues like waller and bowman have been saying on higher rates but as important message, one you've been hitting is, that he thinks it's important to stay restrictive and calls it a passive tightening if we stay at these high levels to get inflation down instead of continuing to raise rates or cutting rates. that's kind of the message we're getting from him. >> okay. do we believe it >> i think it depends what the inflation and the jobs numbers show, which is kind of a tricky spot that powell's put himself into, just relying on one data set for the next month to determine what they do, but the market is giving him

you don't think they're restrictive enough bostic is on the table now he's a very much pause, pause, pause. >> i always care what the fed is doing, by the way. it's that to have an awareness as an asset allocator, what does the market care about and not try to fight those two you don't want to be dogmatic as an investor. you want to be pragmatic what chairman powell said yesterday also, because we're at the end, you have to calibrate more carefully because like tom cruise, like maverick, going from 9 gs to 10 gs, that's a big difference he's aware of the incremental hikes when you're up at 5 1/2 and going to 6, things can break. >> why does the market not care what the fed says? >> i think the market knows we're toward the end if you look at the bond market, the 10-year is not even close to 4% so the short end is telling you rates are high, but the long end is telling you that rates are still low. >> stockmarket, i mean, just brushes it all off. >> yeah. >> does it continue that way is it just until it starts paying attention or is it just done with the fed? >> i think the market tho

alix, we have heard from bostic.s less enthusiastic about hiking aggressively than some others, including his very own chair. alix: it's true. did he say he expects inflation to ask for a long period. to the point, dani, two year yield still up by 16 basis point. monster sellout in the bond market. thank you for spending time with me today. dani: thanks for having me. alix: we talked about space. back tomorrow. have no fear. coming up adventure and tv host bear grylls, joins ed ludlow. i'm told this is a big deal. don't miss it. this is bloomberg. (jennifer) ♪the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren

bostic was the first one who said that, but also said skip a rate hike. he was speaking today and he said that he does not see that same urgency to hike that jerome powell and his colleagues do and he thinks it's time to stop and assess the number of rate hikes. let's listen to what he said. >> it is less certain we need to continue hiking in the medium-term, lesson we risk tightening too much and draining too much momentum from the economy. kathleen: he said it is his job to convince his colleagues about this, the need to may be keep rates where they are now, and in the future, let me make that clear, he does not rule out more rate hikes by the things a lot has been done and it is time to assess the jerome powell and others do not sound like they're in that camp. the jobless claims start there and it is a weekly number and at a time like this he gets more attention and when the economy is going along and for a couple of weeks jobless claims have jumped up, but now they have fallen down this week, the biggest decline since october 2021. it is a holiday we

comments from raphael bostic at a conference in ireland saying he does not anticipate further rate hikeshis echos what we heard him say to reporters this morning in dublin he thinks the current rate is sufficient to get inflation to the 2% target and we can get to that target without a severe economic downturn. also saying he doesn't completely rule out the need for further hikes but this is one area he does differ with the fed chair. >> quite a bit that's different from what we heard from powell. >> not a big market reaction stocks if anything are a little bit off session highs. >> a.i. perhaps the most behind investment on wall street right now, but not everyone agrees more than 40% of chief financial officers say they're trending carefully with that. we will dig into the key results from our latest cfo council survey next. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need

watching investors coming to terms with the fact there may not be a rate hike cut coming next year, bostic said that yesterday. how is that impacting the rally? >> and even when the market was pricing in cuts. they're no longer doing that i think we're at a phase in the market where with the fed does next is less important at this stage than what the impact is of what's already been done i say that because one year ago, you know, since a year ago the nasdaq 100 is up 30% the s&p 500 is up 13%. the fed funds rate, now we're at 5. however you want to slice it, the fed is in the range of being finisheded for now even if rates stay higher for longer, we're arguing around the edges, arguing six and eight months in the future, and at the hawkish edge of what the fed might do based on powell, we're talking about 50 basis points by halloween. that's not necessarily a scary scenario certainly not relative to a weekly jobless claims going to keep going up, are we okay with flattening out earnings? are stocks too expensive one of the reasons, too, fed policy is not necessarily, to me, the key swing f

raphael bostic taking the other side yesterday, but so far, it looks like the fed is still poised toraise interest rates again. guy: other central banks are back hiking and hiking hard. does that give the fed cover to be more aggressive? mike: i don't think they need cover. it is the biggest central bank in the world. we have the biggest economy is the world. what the fed does matters. the issue is what impact does it have on the rest of the world that then feeds back to the united states instead of what impact the united states has on the rest of the world. because the fed is going to do what it is going to do for the u.s. economy. alix: but to that point, if we take the boe as an example, if they start having to cut aggressively in february of next year, that's a different proposition. mike: every country has a different inflation problem so they will be approaching it differently. the u.k. has to face brexit issues as well as inflation. they will have problems with their mortgage industry because of the way mortgages are designs there compared to the united states. europe is very

they bostic said that the us in the partnership is stronger, closer and more dynamic. then at any time in history and button, even to clear that out economic relationship is booming. they also address some of the criticisms of bodies government saying that the press, freedom of religious freedom is vital to the success of democracies and body even declared that there was no place for discrimination in india. or we're going to go to our white house correspondent, kimberly how could, who joins us now, and they really were a bunch of them talking up the economic benefits of the relationship here. went a yeah, there's no question that that has been a significant part of this visit. they're looking to each other to really kind of underscore the value of this relationship and expand on that. there are a number of agreements that are being signed as well as announced in this visit, an expansion of the trade in defense partnership. in fact we. 2 know that there is going to be an investment of some, 2000000000 in terms of indian companies investing in the united states in terms

there is a number of people in this camp, raphael bostic, atlanta fed, tom harkin, all saying that theya pause. that doesn't mean they will vote that way, they're waiting for more data, the jobs report came in on the hot side, and we will wait for that cpi number, i think as mohammed just said, if the numbers come in with hot inflation and hot jobs then how is powell going to explain that if they decide to take the ponds and the fed chair in cleveland has said among others that they could see looking at not making up their minds but that more rate hikes are needed, and we might even wonder if there is a policy dissent or two. a lot of explain it to do. and every three months they update their forecast for gdp, inflation and unemployment. how could they keep their inflation forecast for 2023 up at three point plus percent for the court in plater. that is going to be tough to do because inflation is still much much higher than that. it is up around 5%. with unemployment it is still so low, and they will have to lower it, but we don't know. this is going to be a very important meeting, lot

an important outlier is rafael bostic, resident of the federal reserve bank of atlanta. to signal that may be fed should pause. and he still thinks the fed should pause and he has been saying i guess i have to convince my boss this. and he said it is time to wait and see what is going on after all of these moves and here's what he said. >> it is less certain that we need to keep hiking the policy interest rate in the immediate term. lest we risk tightening too much and draining too much momentum from the economy. >> he is worried about doing too much and not being little bit prudent, waiting to see how things are going before you to mark and he does not rule out the possibility that the fed will have to do more rate hikes. he just thinks that it is time to take some time and let this coalesce more before they go again so quickly with another rate hike which powell has signaled could, as early as the next meeting in july. --, as early as the next meeting in july. cracks with numbers we see out of germany and spain, there is evidence of how uneven it is across the euro are

let's talk about rafael bostic from the atlanta fed, he has said i think we can pause, but if there is hike. they fall said important reports will determine jobs and inflation. we have more improvement than expected on the headline cpi down to 4.0%, the lowest since march of 2021, core cpi, less improvement due to the base effect, the comparison to high inflation last year. when you look at the monthly levels you see the story clearly. on the headline there is improvement. on the core it looks like it has flattened out. we can look into the report further and see things encouraging. energy prices, yes, that's why the headline fell by 3.6%. when you look at core goods and core services and other things happening that are optimistic. used car prices have been driving up core services for months. now we see early reports, early side -- signs that they are dropping in june. that's a good move. rent makes up more than half of the cpi. they have been rising steadily, big headache for the fed, now they are starting to decrease. increases are getting smaller, core services. that something that

raphael bostic seemed to want to keep things on hold. -- tom: an important meeting, i wish jonathan ferro he doesn't better. but he will be an interesting meeting to say the least. what is important about it is the linkage of equities and bonds, currencies, commodities. mark chandler joins. he is truly the expert on the foreign exchange. what does sterling do here? a new resilient, stronger sterling. what is your call off of this meeting? marc: i think the bank of england diluted eight when he five basis point rate hike, showing the selloff. it is pricing about a one in three chance of a 50 basis point hike. like norway delivered, i think that real issue here is the trade-off. not so much the trade-off as far as 25 and 50. but higher than expected inflation. the perspective that a recession is worth the risk of getting inflation under control. it is the key trade-off. i think the bank of england is committed to lower inflation and they are willing to risk the recession to do so. lisa: there is tension about whether further rate mean stronger currency or whether it incurs pain on the econo