dani: raphael bostic is starting to recalibrate.rioration but landing the plane. how do they do that before the u.s. election? tom p.: i love this question and we have done this analysis as many others have. we just went back to 1984 to get a nice round number. we looked at every single election from 1984 through today and see is that history that modest history is littered with examples of the fet adjusting policy during election years. not just during election years, but in and around the election month. all they needed was the justification from a data perspective. and i would argue the end employment rate being up as much as it is an inflation being down is your justification. lisa: how do we know that it is not headed in the other direction and that we already saw the slowdown because jobless claims are going down. you see walmart increasing its expectation and company is doing better out of the 493 halvor -- other than the magnificent seven and accelerating earnings. how do we know that we will not be turbocharged by rate cuts

bostic protests too much.he fed have put themselves in a position were so much is priced into the market. for the fed not to do anything at the september meeting is almost unthinkable. the pushback from the market reaction would probably be something like we saw last week from the japanese stock market. it is something they cannot countenance. the best they can do now is keep traders thinking 25 basis points on the table and nothing more, but of course the data is the thing that will tell them over the next couple weeks. there is more employment and cpi reports to come before they meet but when you look at the global trend -- i was at new zealand lowering rates again today -- and the fed is very much in line with what other central banks are doing. the bank of japan is the only outlier in this sequence. inflation is moving down. the core cpi is expected to be 3.2. if it comes in lower like the ppl yesterday, can you imagine the reaction in the bond market, which is already on fire anyway? it will be an excitin

we had rafael bostic speaking to the ft saying he's open to cut.int 3% unemployment, how vulnerable is the labor market to deep cracks or is there relative resilience? >> i think there's resilience, as i say, the view that we take is that there is a slow down, but it's not a sharp one, consumption is slowing but it slowing in a contained way at the moment. provided that you see that, you wouldn't expect to see a sudden sharp drop in the labor situation, we have had a decent amount of growth. i think at the moment our sense is that the fed still has inflation matter to deal with, yes, there is softening coming through but you have to balance those things out and that requires a measured response. tom: what are you looking for in resilience? >> u.k. economy looks like a has had a resilient first half of the year. we had plus .7 over the first order. we are looking for the same for the quarterly number for this time, for the next three months, for the second quarter. at face value that looks great. i think it overstates the extent of strength for the

atlanta fed president rafael bostic is speaking right now.o steve liesman for those headlines. hi, steve. >> hey, kelly. rafael bostic speaking in atlanta saying, quote, i think we will get there. that means there being towards rate cuts f the economy evolves as he suspects it will be. we should have rate cuts by the end of the year. he wasn't pressed whether that would be in september. he said actually what he really said is i think you will all be smiling to the audience of assembled professional financial professionals by the end of the year. he said, he has more confidence inflation is on the road back to 2% and he does want to see, quote a little more data before cutting interest rates. policy right now, he calls restrictive and one reason for rate cuts is -- once rate cuts are achieved, he says we should get rates back to normal. the past three or four months he points out inflation returned back to the prior trajectory before it started to tick up in the beginning of the year. he does say it would be really bad for the fed to cut rates

charles: ralph bostic, bowman, sound like there is not a big deal.late? >> i don't think it is too late. which got the ppi news today, 0.1%. we'll see tomorrow what happens with the cpi, right? that is a big number to watch. last time we were here, when we discussed cpi that was november .1. most of it was because housing came down. charles: right. >> 4%, last reading was a .2%. it is a big decline. now what we've seen is that energy costs are rising sew that's what we want to watch for tomorrow. charles: all right. you do not see a recession? you don't think we're in a recession. could we go into one? >> we don't believe -- we don't know what will happen overseas, or the war. charles: sure. >> as of now, the data that we have, especially when it comes to unemployment ticked up 4.2%. that is below the historical average. charles: that where we are to go 5.5% we're in recession? if we went to 4.7 next couple months is that recession or the speed we go? >> we are 4.3 where we're now, we expect to stay, 4.3 million baby boomers eligible to retire. 10 to

bostic's remarks, is trending just where -- toward where the fed would want.ut it's got momentum towards that. core pce, ex-shelter, is already at 2%. labor markets, a little more volatile. we saw that large revision, which means that average monthly job growth has been slower than we thought the it had been, and it's very hard to pull off a soft landing the way the fed is trying to do, although they look like they can do it, so i think at the margin, the fed is more oriented towards labor markets, which means more inclined to cut, and i do think that the basic scenario of three cuts, 25 basis points each between now and the rest of the year is the base case. >> you know, yesterday, we were having this debate about whether they should cut by half a point, and a couple of reasons for that would be, number one, that rates are so much higher now that as a percentage of where they are, it's not as big as it might be later on if you had to do more of playing catch-up. more importantly, inflation expectations are down since the spring, and bostic himself just said,

that's right, atlanta's fed chief bostic says it's time to cut rates.c a voting member of the fmoc cautioned he wants to be sure before making a move, adding he'll want to see next week's monthly job reports and the two inflation reports before the fed's next policy meeting. openai is in talks to raise funding that could value the startup at more than $100 billion. sources telling cnbc thrive capital is leading this round and will invest $1 billion in the chatgpt parent. "the wall street journal" which was first to report on the development said microsoft, which is openai's biggest backer is also participating in the round. microsoft declined to comment to cnbc. and sticking with a.i., california's legislature approving a bill creating sweeping new restrictions on the red hot tech. the legislation which now heads to governor gavin newsom's desk is seen as potentially setting the standard for any potential federal regulations around a.i. elon musk is backing the proposal, while a number of tech companies and venture capital firms are opposed to it, conte

i would. >> you mentioned boss stick who was -- bostic wants a little more data on the economy before cutting rates. just to be absolutely sure he says it would be really bad if we started cutting rates and we had to turn around and raise them again. i'm willing to wait, but it's coming. you think they go in september? >> i do. >> the market's already got that all in. >> the markets have us pricing in almost 50 in september, 2/3 of the way to 50 in september. the markets are pricing four cuts for the balance of the year. listen, i think there are members of the fed who do want be to see more data, do want to build more confidence. one man's opinion, you invest relative to what you think the fed will do. they'll do two more successive 25s. i think it's priced wrong. at 5 3/8 you have inflation, three-month moving average, six-month moving average, core pce, core pci. service level, strip out shelter, even shelter is coming. running low 2s inflation and you're building real slack in labor. obviously we talk a lot about the unemployment rate, too much time on the unemployment rate given

atlantic federal reserve president rafael bostic says he needs more economic data before supporting a the year in the futures is pricing in the 25 basis cut in september. how does that play into your thinking. >> the fed has done a good job getting inflation under control obviously missteps and thought inflation was transitory which is inaccurate and they tightened dramatically and we made material progress in the ppi yesterday was very good we expect continued progress on cpi and core bostic's been a hardline hawk and we thought the academy deserves and should have 2 - 3 cuts by the end of the year coming into this year end we still think 2 - 3 cuts it's encouraging to see more hawkish members like bostic come around to the realization that the u.s. economy is not as hot as it was six or nine months ago primarily because of the consumer was so strong partially tied to the fiscal stimulus you talked about before and now access savings has been run down and consumption is a function of how powerful labor market is and it's not white-hot it's more around warm to red-hot. >> were certain

steve liesman has this and next week we'll hear from raffaele bostic.ew of each of these fed officials as we go towards the that september meeting? >> you know, i think chair powell is the most important person in that room and his speech will set the agenda and dominate. big moments like this where you've got sort of a turning point and there's a difficult decision to make and it could be a close decision, you know, i think that it's entirely possible that the fed doesn't really knoll if they will go 25 basis points or 50 basis points in september. at that moment this can really matter because i think it can be the case that they kind of have to make sure that everybody is on board in order to get a move through and so i think, that you know, particularly if some of the data comes in a little bit in the u.s. if they aren't super clear and those other voices are going to be really, really important. >> jeanna smilic, always great to see you. >> thank you. >> we'll have complete coverage of the jackson hole summit including chairman powell's speech at 10

vulnerability of four may be, rafael bostic speaking at an event. push back on the narrative? his comments could be consequential. european defense contractor comments amid the conflict in ukraine. i will speak to ceo suzanne. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back. zelensky confirmed forces seized russian territory. the fighting pushed prices high, although both sides will himkeep the fuel going. put it in the historical context. tony: that tells you the significance and how embarrassing it is to confront. ukrainian officials met with zelenskyy and said they had control of russian territory and russia met regional officials and the governor of the region said 180,000 people have been evacuated. tom: what is the situation when it comes to those gas supplies? what is happening and what are the risks? tony: a town where russia's last pipeline through ukraine is rooted. ukrainian troops have taken control, we have reporting saying ukrainian troops have control but the gas is flowing. ukraine earns money and they want to supply customers

mark story interest rates with 10-year treasury well below 4% at laptop federal reserve president bosticonomic data before supporting a ruk by the end of the year you are new op-ed on project will titled be aware of feds contrived consensus assurances healthy economy gave ample time to decide, market caught by surprise new data suggested otherwise the danger of signaling a consensus where nonexists your thoughts. >> i agree with that should have cut in july. they did not, part of the problem we have with fed unlike bank of england, unlike ecb don't tell us enough where individual members are bank of england cut rates told five people voted for this cut, four against a sense of uncertainty the fed did not single that because of that moved around a lot by what our inherently noisy data. >> cheryl breaking the news in a few moments consumer piracy detection the jackson hole meeting in a week august 22 on shelter, and auto insurance the things that have been sticky what is your opinion on inflation and where this goes next? i know way down from highs but you are still looking at things that

time raphael bostic is speaking again. early on this week he said that he would actually need to see more data to confirm the need to cut rates next month, so perhaps one of the members of the fomc chairman powell will need to convince devote for that kind at the september meeting. it will be interesting to see what he says later today. get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. germinal subscribers go to dayb and take a look at some of the top stories on our terminal. one of the mentions is nvidia, further analysis nvidia earnings are having on global stock markets. coming up, in a first for the biden administration the senior white house official jake sullivan sat down for rare talks with the top chinese general. we will discuss that next. ♪ >> it is rare to have this kind of exchange. [indiscernible] joumanna: u.s. national security advisor jake sullivan on the importance of his rare meeting with the chinese army general. a senior white house official jake sul

the atlanta fed chair bostic say it may be time to move on rate cuts, bostic said he is able to wait amid september before pulling the trigger. the first of those will be today's weekly initial jobless claims numbered followed by july's pcde index due and friday, nonfarm payrolls released before the meeting begins on the 17th. >>> 30-year mortgage rates in the u.s. fell to its lowest level in 16 months as the market braces for what is likely to be the fed's first rate cut in over four years next month. the average contract length pell to 6.44%, down six bases points on the week and 38 bases points across the past four weeks. however, mortgage applications rose just 0.5% and purchase applications up 1%, as potential buyers hold out for a further drop in rates. >>> and ahead of vice president harris' first televised interview since president biden dropped out of the race, cnbc's megan correspond sesella takes . >> analysis from the penn wharton budget model shows the forecast $5.8 trillion over the next decade. that's nearly five times more than the cost of harris' plan which they say

we have the fed's raphael bostic speaking, laying the groundwork for jay powell speech at jackson holeiday. coming up to another central bank, sweden's riksbank under pressure to turn around its ailing economy. look ahead to the crucial great decision today. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. other stories making news this morning, british typhoon mike lynch is among those missing after a luxury yacht was struck by a tornado and sank off the coast of sicily. his wife is among those who have been rescued but one person is dead and six others are missing after the boat sank early yesterday. sources the couple was celebrating following his recent acquittal from u.s. charges. in other news, carl and his firm will pay $2 million to settle with the sec over a margin loans probe that caps a 15 month time frame that saw the investors net worth plummet by $19 million. shares fell 4.7% following the news of the settlement over allegations that it did improve -- provide enough information about how he was borrowing against his stake in the company. may these share

. >>> atlanta fed president raphael bostic says it may be time for the central bank to start cuttingling conditions in the inflation and rising unemployment. but bostic, a voting member of the fomc, cautions he wants to see next week's monthly jobs report and the two other inflation reports before the fed's next policy meeting before making a move that puts a lot of pressure on this jobs report. >>> yelp filing an antitrust lawsuit against google, after a judge ruled the search giant is a monopoly. yelp alleges google is abusing its dominance. google says yelp's claims aren't new and similar allegations were thrown out years ago. >>> checking the futures, setup for relatively modest gains, 8 points higher on the s&p 500 after a bit of a down day yesterday. the dow indicated higher by a bit over 200. that's a little over half a percent thanks to a couple components. let's get to contessa brewer with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> good morning to you. salesforce shares are on the move after earnings and revenue beat expectations. the company raised guidance and announced

we got bostic in our pocket now.wo-year has a 3 handle once again, healthy diet of single-ticker upgrades today as well. we will begin with the fed chair's speech, which comes just days after the fed minutes indicated policymakers do see a september rate cut as likely. we got bostic saying that passive tightening is a thing, and it might make some sense for him to bring his rate cut view forward. >> he wasn't as dovish as he could have been. he also said that inflation is not close to target and we've got more work to do, which doesn't exactly channel where the market is right now. look, as far as jackson hole, it's hard to imagine that the fed chair can go into any kind of specifics as to what the market really wants to know, which is, how big is the first cut going to be? he's not going to precommit to that. he has no incentive to do that, especially with another pce report coming next week on inflation and a jobs report coming before the fed meeting and what does the path of fed cuts look like after the first one?

bostic is a voting member of the federal open market committee.t to miss that interview 3:00 p.m. on "the claman countdown." the dow is down 231 points. it is nasdaq close to session lows, down 329 points or nearly 2%. investors are facing some serious economic ed winds, including a slowing job market, high interest rates, stagnant housing market, election uncertainty. yes, interest rates are possibly going to start coming down but with all the headwinds time to go back to buffett investing, right? today's county down -- countdown closer says he has three stocks should fare well no matter the market winds. we have jack oliver who of course has been a berkshire disciple and a buffett dissign pep. when you say, do exactly how buffett picks stocks and pick those names? >> well i think i would, thank you for having me, liz. great to see you as always. i think i would go back to i think what buffett said during chairman greenspan's era if he said, even if he had the minutes, knew what the federal reserve was going to do it wasn't going to change his in

did anything bostic say moved needle?k ppi number and tomorrow we get the consumer price index for the month of july, that will be a big one? >> liz, great to be with you. the bond market is more of a trending market in terms of yields rather than a range-bound market we've seen for quite sometime. that trend now is down because there is a sense the economy is weakening. regardless what the federal reserve officials are thinking. they want to be volckeresque, that is to say the legendary fed chair slayed inflation in late '70s, early '80s, using wrote from his book, keep at it. they don't want to put inflation to get out of the bottle because it is tough to put back in. it drives inflation and the bond market hates it. liz: we have the 10-year down five basis points that means the market is anticipating that the fed is going to cut-rates. now we're looking at fed fund futures, saying in september, the september meeting there is a much bigger percentage move or belief that 50 basis points will be the chop? >> yeah, liz, ro

that could throw this into a -- charles: i'm listening to fed officials in the last 24 hours, like bosticnd others sing a tune that didn't match today's headlines. talk about some of the outperforms right now that meet the high quality area. nike on here. doesn't hurt also to find out that ackman's in there as well. a lot of these names, bro had a phenomenal earnings report recently. kroger, worried about that. if there is a harris administration. >> right. charles: can you legally make profits? these are names for the most part that are household names that are not necessarily kind of stocks that go straight up all the time. >> the cool thing about this is, we're matching our great analysts at bmo. they're outperform rated with how they're looking at things from a screening and portfolio side. look at amgen. you and i grew up in the '90s. that was go-go, mojo biotech. now more of a value stock even though the stock is at or near all-time highs. we're talking about dividends and strong cash. air products is phenomenal company. charles: phenomenal company. >> nike has its issues. our analy

wednesday we will hear from raphael bostic and all eyes will be on nvidia results.sday, another round of u.s. jobless claims, increasingly an important data point. friday u.s. pce, the preferred gauge of inflation. an university of michigan sentiment data. with us still is crying and -- brian and ken. you think about the week ahead and you get new jobs data. what are you watching as the more critical moments now that you know a fed rate cut is around the corner. how much? how much will the data guide that? ken: unless we get something really unusual or see a lot more large-scale layoffs than the 20 -- 25 basis points is all we should expect. for it to go to 50 it would need a fairly substantial case in the direction when we get that nonfarm payroll number in september. sonali: the one thing i have been wondering is has the market been doing a lot of work for the fed. i want to pull up this tweet from a harvard economist. "powell aggressively used open mouth operations but that is exactly in the right place." if you have real yields perennially moving lower, does the

what our new medical was a bostic. i thought brushing us this late in a settle total as it was understood, the less you know. no, no, it couldn't be like a wonderful garden, but dr. correspondent the shuttle to sleep with the full army and there. yeah, the, do you have no groceries of the so again it's you call them on the equity to see how that a goods you opting of the 3 by the better because, you know, not combine but the only other issue there. so that is that, that was all, can i think though it yet clear origin was 0 of the separate camino de la. save the issue today, but let me go ahead and go over to my favorite. i must forego a $50.00 a month the, the, the the, the price by cnn. they read this here by itself. but why the escape this place i this i i really cause a man and normal good point will really cut out of the, you know, we have some feeling a pause. so this is stuck to so pro, a real a the sick, the centralink zones. cool. set animal, the amount of bill allows us to something sure. bear with others that

mcdonald did not want him to go into something, but i'll be off doing what our new medical was. luca bostic got up brushing us just lagging a settled total as it was understood, the less you know. no, no, it couldn't be like a wonderful garden for the spot in the queue. shut off to sleep with the for me, isn't there yet on a do you have not mostly se, uh again it's he called on monday because he already had a good view of the thing of the 3 bible pedagogy. and i'm not going to go into the show there. so that is that there was no connection though it yet, cuz the original 0, i have the subject to me want to save the issue today. i'm gonna go down, i'm gonna go over to my favorite, r must go to a $50.00 a month to click the the the price and then the red light on the escape that place i just i, i really kind of goes to the normal point. oh, really cut out of the pos, i'm feeling a pause, so this is stuck to so pro, a real a the sick, the us intelligence cool sample. the bill allows us to some tool. they would have to sell it them and they have a problem, a fortune to over i or to the face to

what our new one particular was the bostic i thought brushing us just lagging a set all the as it was understood, the less you know, no, no, it would be like a wonderful garden by dr correspondent, the shuttle so slow to talk with the people. i mean, they're, you know, do you have not mostly so again, as you call them on the equity and see how that are going to show up in a level 3 by the pedagogy. and i'm not going to go any other issue there. so that is that, that was all connect me though it yet, could you original 0 at the separate camino de la save the issue today, but i'm going to miss doc or mike, february must forego a 50 dollar a month. the bill the the price in, in the read this here by itself. but why the escape that place i this i i really because i'm a normal good point. oh, really kind of us, the, you know, we have some feeling a pause so this is stuck to so pro, a real, a lift gate on the centralink zone school set animal. the amount of bill allows us to central bear with alice pellet them them a problem or or to go over i or to the face to face of the on that i was tra

you heard raphael bostic highlighting that yesterday. is at 2.5% right now and given the slowdown in demand we are seeing that will continue to decline for bottom-up and top-down reasons. but sharks happen. get commodity price spikes. have an election in a few months where fiscal policy changes whole lot. the fed still has to be on guard, and that is why they want to proceed toward neutral but not necessarily to accommodative fed funds rates of 2% like you would see in a recession. jonathan: adam posen has made the point for the peterson institute that they should be prepared to pivot from the pivot if the former president gets another term. because of issues around immigration, because of issues around tariffs as well. you think the political considerations are strong enough that that might actually be an outcome in 2025? michael: i think what the fomc is going to have to do is wait to see what happens. you go back to 2016 as an example and look at what they were talking about after that election at the december meeting that your they w

what our new medical was a bostic. i thought brushing us just lagging a set all the as it was understood, the less you know, no, no, it could be like a wonderful garden, but not a good spot in the queue shuttles this legal model for the, for me and there yet on the do you have no groceries of the so again, it's, he called on monday because he already had a good view of the, of the 3 by the better because, you know, not going, but the only other issue there. so that is out there was all can i think though it yet, cuz they are watching a video of this up at camino de la. save the issue today, but i'm gonna go ahead and go over my favorite. i must forego effect and i'm at the desk with the the the price i seen in the red this here by itself. but the escape this place i hi this i i really cause a man, a normal good portal. really kind of us the really have some feeling, a pause. so this is stuck to so pro a real a the sick the centralink is in school set animal, the man, the bill allows us to something sure. bear with elli

what our new medical was a bostic i thought brushing us just lagging a set of total as it was understood, the less you know, no, it would be like a wonderful garden, but not a good spot to make you shut off to sleep mode off with the for me and there, you know, do you have no groceries of the? so again, it's you called on monday because you see how that are going to show up any of the 3 bible pedagogy. no, not going going, but going issue there. so that is that that was helped him connect me though it yet, cuz he had originally utilized the subject to me what the law says, the issue that they are going to miss duck water. mike, february must forego a $50.00 a month. the advance could go the the price by sitting in the bed is here by itself. but while he's getting this place i hi this i i really kind of those to the normal good point. oh, really kind of us, the, you know, we have some feeling a pause so this is stuck to so pro, a real, a sick the sit down as an school set animal, the man, the bill allows us to something sure. bear with ellis pellet. them never problem a or to do over i or

reality to help the boys to be you a young interesting you, you'll be a we've a stylish solution to bostic pollution and how small scale form is kind of for the 3 face, dr. diesel, we've clean solar energy. let us begin a ride to in uganda where many communities, our son named via the amount of plastic with that is littering. the streets. clothing suit was on humming the environment. organize west management could help a lot until then. it is up to people like, you know, plus people to find creative on wanting ways of dealing with these plastic blake life. you know, there could you come in, you can ease anything but easy, but don't risk of you does not fall in the way on money collecting plastic bottles . the company is lead touch with them, including the small patch of land where she grows her vegetables, she sells the plastic with to a recycling company. what was the more on this topic about $24.00 euro, who's a month? call me 5, buy a waste of plastic bag. see my yeah, i mean, i get 24. you are let me. but it has to be heavy. i dodi square feet of flood. what to not keep a provenance in

what our new political was the bostic i thought brushing us this late in a settle total as it was. understood, the less it? no, no, no. it could be like a wonderful garden for dr correspondent. the shuttle says legal model for the for me and there. yeah, the, do you have no groceries of the so again, as you call them on the equity and see how that are going to show up in the 3 bible pedagogy. no, not going, but the only other issue there. so that is that, that was all, can i think though, it yet, cuz he had originally with one of the subject camino de la save the he did a recording. i'm a duck or mike, february must forego a $50.00 a month. the bill, the the price i seen in the read this here by it. but why the escape that place i the i back i really cause a man a normal good portal really kind of us the, you know, we have some feeling a pause. so this is stuck to so pro, a real a, the sick the centralink is in school set animal. the amount of bill allows us to some tool. bear with alice pellet them, never problem a or to go over i or to the face to face of the on that i was transf

they use a young interesting you, you'll be a, we've a stylish solution to bostic pollution and how small scale form is kind of forward through face dr. diesel, we've clean solar energy. let us begin a ride to in uganda where many communities are named via the amount of plastic with that is littering. the streets clothing suit was on humming the environment. organize with management could help a lot until then it is up to people like, you know, fuss report to find creative and rewarding ways of dealing with these plastic like life you never have to do. come in, you've gone is anything but easy? but daughter is cuz he does not phone the weight on money collecting plastic bottles. the company's lead touch with them, including the small patch of land where she grows her vegetables. she sells the plastic west to a recycling company. who was the moya, on this uh comic about $24.00 euros a month. a cool me 5 by a ways to stick bag sima is saying. yeah, i think i get 24. you are. i mean, but it has to be heavy duty is covered up sled war to not keep a provenance in democratic republic of congo.

essentially, that's the situation bostic i'm into his that's is demonstrably on through. the proof lies in the many videos of opposition rallies, links the ones that mainstream outlets either gave short shrift to or simply ignore in the quarter century since 1998. when left us leaders, hugo chavez was 1st elect. the venezuelan mass media has taken a 180 degree turn back then the media space was dominated by right wing force. so much so that when a tool was mounted, that gets shot in 2002 and appeared to succeed. its proponents gave credit where credit was due to their media cohort. they want to. gotcha. gotcha. and like i said, the, you know, the theater then moving into google ever said that, a good us yesterday they could, i could send me the address as well as you'll, you'll but chavez is government survived. and it began re shaping the country's media, which nicholas, i'm a do it over then accelerate take up. what i don't want to do is us end up with this estimate that 60 percent of digital media was blocked in venezuela, particularly independent media. the data conta

yes it's, it's very bostic. it's not surprising by the way that is, face soldiers are massing to attack, interested in me, that they're not going to be anywhere near the border by the way. so what you're going to have is border cards and probably a result of a. so i'm gonna send the 2nd like troops, and the defense is not surprising that a very good regular unit off of your credit obviously matters to take so much lot. there's not come up. the guys defense is what will that will happen over the next week? i suspect is that one might be able to, whether it's by for the forces. so we're going to attack any way to suited me if that's the case o, rest of the forces of the most of the public. that will be a counter attack to attempt to re take this area. no doubt about it. yes, it's embarrassing. of course, on the help, the russians no doubts about that. am i talking about russian russian territory here? how will you, chris, west, and support his see that well, it seems that the 1st that the americans heard of this w

nvidia earnings after the market and catherine man from boe to be hitting the wire as well rafael bostice opposite spectrum, vouching for a cut with jay powell. we will dive into those details. coming up, the paralympics opening ceremony begins in paris seeking to continue the magic of the olympics. we speak to the deputy mayor next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. the paris paralympics begins today. 44 hundred athletes will compete over 12 days. joining me is the paris deputy mayor pierre. pleasure to have you, thank you for joining us. exciting time for paris. so many questions about participation from tourists around the world. whether paris wanted deal with bics. walk us through the paralympics. are you seeing the same excitement or lack thereof? pierre: there is more excitement than before the olympics because every time we had a lot of questions. good things to welcome the olympic games and we can discover and i hope after today the massive support of the crowd from paris, from all international venues, we are really excited to start the secon

atlanta fed president raphael bostic speaks this afternoon.oter on the fmoc this year for policies and rates. google is holding the made by google event where it is expected to reveal the hardware and the pixel 9 smartphone. >>> let's get a check of the markets. futures indicating a modestly higher open. the dow implied higher 99 points. nasdaq up by 100. joining me now is matt powers, founder and adviser of powers advisory group. matt, this market recovered pretty much everything it lost on the monday downdraft. do you feel it is comfortable for investors to get back in? >> good morning, dom. thank you for having me. yeah, i do. even though the downturn left a few names untouched, others were retreating to safe havens. utilities and reits benefitted and the bounce back on tuesday and thursday looked look a typical selloff rather than a warning and big board losses. >> the big story over the course of the last few months is the broadening out of the market rally before the market downturn. do you feel that broad ening ou trade is something we

we heard from raphael bostic saying maybe there is a rate cut by the end of the year. at the same time, the market is already pricing in 100 basis points. who is wrong? >> at the end of the day, the two have to converge. the reality is the fit -- the fed is very much behind the curve. if you look at the rate raising cycle, they were substantially late. the other thing you have to look at is how the two had been away treasury yield moves ahead of the fed rate decision. i intend to be a lot more believer in the market rather than necessarily speak -- fed speak, and i think the market is anticipating data. the fed will be guided by data, but i think they are quite substantially behind the curve here. avril: you talk about this disconnect. we are also seeing how equities markets seem to be underpricing recession versus what we see in the treasury space. do you think this heightens the odds that we see a catch up later on? >> catch up to recession expectation or catch up to markets? avril: and unwinding of potentially the concert we are seeing and the concerns about recessi

vix back below 20 and as we abate bostic at 1 -- await bostic at 1:15 today, about a one-week low, stayu'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan you'll get other important benefits. all of these plans include dental coverage. with two free cleanings a year. plus, fillings, and a year

the atlanta fed president raphael bostic told the ft that wednesday's cpi print is a very, very positiveign saying he is open to a september cut as fed officials should be mindful of the double mandate this after his chicago peer austan goolsbee. let's unpack this with the head of economic research at st. james' place here in london. thanks for being here. first of all, disinflation in the u.s. helping to bring relief for markets. i think we can say the same globally there are still a number of risks out there. what are you watching out there? >> we have been saying for a long time, but services inflation is a key thing for the bank of england and the fed. it is still way above target at more than double that has to continue coming down when you look at super core inflation which has become a popular measure, that has started to drift lower again on a more dynamic basis, the three-year annualized. that is definitely good news the labor market and wage growth and all of these things are really important to keep an eye on. >> walk me through your expectations when it comes to what the fed

raphael bostic saying they need more data but politically it matters. it's the first of three prints we will get for the u.s. election and inflation been top of mind. lisa: it's one of the big conundrums for the federal reserve. consumers have plenty of money to spend as long as they are wealthy enough to have fat paychecks and bank accounts that have been bolstered by higher rates as they are. how does the fed take this at a time when two-year yields have fallen by some 30 basis points over the past month in august alone. you look at the euro, the strongest going back to the beginning of january versus the dollar all hinging on a fed set to cut rates by more than 100 basis points year-end. dani: just on the market moves the fed look so offsides. if they cut more in line with the markets thinking. we want to be absolutely sure and i want to see more data. need to make sure the trend is real. it's not a fed debating between 25 and 50 basis points. that is a fed debating whether to cut at all. >> talking about how they have a three tense of a percent incr

we'll hear from the atlanta fed president raphael bostic and the atlanta fed president austan goolsbeecheck out cnbc.com. >>> mark schneider steps down 'lha me teth. of nestle. wel veorafr is >>> welcome back. nestle's incoming ceo says his major goal will be market share as the company looks to regain momentium following several xwaurters of lack lusters stairs. the new stays will take over from mark schneider who has been at the helm of the year. do we expect a strategy shift? >> it is likely. the board is not happy with the performance of nestle in recent times. therefore, they are trying to have some sort of change here in their business outlook. however, i just would like to point out that mark schneider has been in the company, leading the company for eight years, and the announcement that we received yesterday was very sudden so it took investors by surprise. no one saw this coming, particularly because mark schneider had also signaled recently that he was committed in the long run as well to remain the ceo of nestle, so a sudden change here, and that's clearly not bringing any

that was, as you remember, we had been through that bout of inflation, and now raphael bostic from atlantad my forecast for this year is in play and then others had said just one. and now there are multiple in play here. hopefully, all of this stays together this is the probabilities that we just put up and the way to read that start is just look at the last number in the middle there, the 92% probability, add up the ones on the left that's saying the market is super confident there's going to be 100 basis points of cuts. i will say maybe one of the criticisms i'm hearing in the hallway here is maybe powell precommitted the fed to more than the fed itself is either willing or able to give at that time, but, again, he was clear about the direction of rates, the magnitude. that's going to be up to the data and the committee >> the time has come those words. thank you very much, steve liesman, out in jackson hole >>> while jay powell did not indicate the scope of those rate cuts, our next guest expects the fed to ease by a full half percent in september and november, and a quarter point in de

bostic started monday this one camp and ended the week in a different camp. >> you think the markets are volatile, these fed officials are volatile. everything is volatile. what we're seeing a clear move towards dovishness. maybe we don't get 50 basis points in september but we're moving in that direction and the trends we've seen especially last week with the inflation data, being better than expected. charles: right. >> retail sales being better than expected, and we're seeing surveys of consumer sentiment improving as well. i think that -- >> all these things inside the nuance are ugly to me. that retail sales number, auto sales in june were down because the internet was down. you're in the soft landing camp still, right? >> we're in the soft landing camp but the second highest grower was tonics and appliances. charles: sporting goods went down. miscellaneous 2.35% down. people stopped spending on the pets. when you stop spending on fido we're done, we're done! one of things driving the market, buybacks up huge again. between buybacks, passive investing you and i talked about, all

. >> our steve liesman spoke to fed presidents bostic and goolsbee and asked for their views on whatomes next. >> inflation has come down faster than i expected, right, and for me that says that it may be appropriate to pull forward our first rate move. you know, i was in the fourth quarter, my outlook has been in the fourth quarter for quite some time. >> and you only had one cut. >> i only had one cut. >> has that changed now? >> it is in play. >> we set the rate more than a year ago, and the conditions were really completely different, and you saw chair powell talk about that. he just kind of walked you through the history in a very clear way of the how different conditions were 14 months ago, so i kind of think this moment, i thought the spirit of chair powell's speech, look, loose the moment. everything that we've been wanting to happen, this is the path to that >> markets are currently pricing in around 38% chance of a 50-basis point fed rate cut in september according to lseg data. randy crosner downplayed that. >> i don't think they started with 50. if they start with 350 tha

we heard from atlanta, fed president, bostic, they are getting in the july meeting when they pivotedning bias. he said it would be bad to turn around and raise rates after they were cut. it's coming. if the economy evolves, you will have bigger smiles on your face at the end of the year, talking about the cuts. they are warming to the idea. and a lot of people expect chair powell when he speaks at jackson hole, to sound more confident. he was a little more wishy washy in july and found the cut was coming. not precommit and certainly not precommit to a double, which is a 50. >> right. the retail sales will be tomorrow and jobs, most important. and the only other shoutout i want to give, is treasury secretary janet yellen, we talked to her in 2023. and we were getting points in the mid 3s. remember what she predicted. let's refresh your memory on this one. when do you think the fed will increase its market? >> my expectation is that inflation will continue to come down. and i would, frankly, expect -- i don't want to do a precise forecast for you. when we come to the end of 2024, it's

. >> almost exactly what bostic told "the ft" yesterday, "you really cannot afford to be late." >>> heres fund strat global advisor's head of research, tom lee, joins us on a summer friday. thanks for coming in. last week, was it difficult to keep your bearings in the midst of that crazy price action? >> without question. the market had been whipsawed by data point to data point as you were recapping. the jobs report raised recession fears, big risk off. then we get inflation this week, which was pretty tame, and i think markets suddenly went back to thinking about liquidity coming into markets. i think thatthe data dependence of the markets and the fed is very tough for investors, and i think if you look ahead, i would say we always know the summer is tough. summer probably runs through october, but i don't think that anything's changed into year-end, which should look pretty good. >> is that -- are you lower conviction now than you were two weeks ago? >> no. no change in our conviction. but it is just recognizing august, historically, is a tough month for markets. one thing that maybe

we'll get bar and bostic on the tape this afternoon. and s&p has a gain at the open and see if it holds and makes the ninth straight win the longest win streak for the s&p since 2004. stay with us. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. >>> let's get to jim and stop trading. >> you heard what david said and it's important to listen to every word, including the fact that at the end we do not have necessarily enough people to start hurting food companies. that was very good. he said listen we're a drug company, not a food company. a piece out today by citi, earnings per share seems likely sales weakness. this is it. this is the smucker call that i've been waiting for. hostess remains concerned. if there's goin

bostic and bara tomorrow. powell on friday. stay with us. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long?e. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter i

bostic talking to the ft, this line about we don't want to be late, i know it's removed from sort ofow interesting is that? >> it's very interesting, and i want to check my notes here because musallam said something similar where he talked about the idea, the fed is not behind the curve because the labor market is still strong, but inflation is still above target. but you tonight want to be too restrictive for too much time. i think that the, carl, the idea being you can still have this tee decent growth, reasonably strong or not weak labor market and the fed should cut. the question is how do you look at it? we will make some progress and understand it in jackson hole next week. how much room to you have to cut rates and still be restrictive. by the fed's own measure of say a 2.8%, 2.6% long run rate, look, we're at 538, so there's plenty to come down and you're still tamping on the economy and still holding the economy back, carl? from that's a great setup for our next discussion. thank you. steve liesman. by the way, s&p is extending its win streak for a sixth day after this morni

yesterday raphael bostic said after strength on the path earlier this year, inflation the past several trajectory that has given him more confidence it could head back to 2%. he added he wants to see more data before figuring out what to do in september but expected there would be rate cuts before year end. stubborn housing inflation, you want to watch that at 8:30, the measure of owners equivalent rent peaks nine months after the broader cpi and has been slower to come down. you can see that there. it was somewhat behaved last month, some say, hey, inflation is real in that sector, and that's what's really happening in that data. others say it is bad lag data and the numbers are lower and will come down. today's cpi and yesterday's ppi, two critical data points, they feed into the fed's preferred indicator, the pce inflation numbers which come out at the end of the month. another round in september, a week before the fed meets. i will tell you, my friend alex monzara, he points out that the june 25 -- the june 25 fed funds contract is trading 200 basis points below the current funds r