one of my next guests called that bostic headline. joining us is diane swan, a chief economist. steve liesman is standing by, as well. diane, you thought they might skip here. >> well, i think it's a possibility, and i'm not at all surprised that raphael bostic has been a more hawkish member of the fed. we know that chair powell tried to corral them, but we expected two quarter point cuts, the market was ahead of that. we still expect two quarter point cuts, but the situation now is just -- you know, highly noisy to put it in the very least. we have disruptions due to the hurricanes that's cs that could prices, and we have seen layoffs due to the hurricanes in north carolina in particular pick up, showing up in the unemployment claims. the october employment report which kovs out november 1st right before the election is now set up to be really, really weak, because we also have the strike in the aerospace industry and spillover effects to suppliers, also holding down those numbers. we know after major hurricanes, we tend to see somewhat weaker payrolls in the month following th

the fed president raphael bostic suggested he would be happy to forego a rate cut in november if theumbers supported it. bostic describing choppiness in recent data as a reason to pause at next month's meeting, but said he could see a case to cut rates in the two remaining fmoc meetings this year. the voting member adding he had pencilled in one more 25-basis point cut for the year. speaking to cnbc, chicago fed president, austan goolsbee, a non voting member this year, says the fmoc needs to remember its dual mandate. >> we have gone through a long period where we had almost exclusive attention to the mandate. we had to. inflation was way higher than the target and the job market was white hot and extremely strong. we've shifted now to a more normal environment with a balanced risk environment where we have to think about both sides of the mandate. >> for insight and analysis, we turn to cio for equities at m & g investment. welcome to the program. you heard from top fed officials talking about the overall impact of the cpi print. what's your view? does it justify a fed pause now? >

the fed's bostic floated that idea just yesterday.ll look at the names you may want to buy or bail on. this is one of our buys on the mist try chart today, up 35%. let's start with the markets and dom chu. >> it's a record day, and aim not going to bury the lead. the record highs in the dow industrials, put the star right up there. also with the s&p 500, both large-cap indexes made record highs. the dow up 316 points, three quarters of 1% advance there to bring you to 42,770. the s&p 500 is up 5809, up about 29 points, half of 1% gains here. at the highs, we were up just around 39 points and down roughly 5 at the lows. tilting towards the higher end of things right now. the nasdaq composite, maybe a little bit of that tesla drag on there. it's at 18,327. it's up 45 points, only one quarter of 1% advance there. but it's grown across the board and record highs for two major indexes. as for what got us to these record high levels. the nasdaq is just a couple percent away from its own rarified air, but it's the technology stocks, the indu

bostic is the first to say the quiet bit out loud.n how quickly and how much we have to cut rates? to your point, other officials not saying that it all. this is what alstom goolsby had to say. the overall trend over 12 to 18 months is clearly the inflation has come down a lot in the job market is cooled to a level that surrounds what we think for employment is. clearly, this is the keyword. this is what the market had gotten complacent about. that inflation was debt and not coming back. now you see a little bit of a waking up on the margins when you look at breakeven rates on the long end. jonathan: raphael bostic is an interesting fed speaker to watch. they all oversee different regions. regional fed presidents oversee different impact for the hurricanes. raphael bostic is sitting right on top of that story right now in the southeast. lisa: a tricky issue of how much the jobs picture is going to be clouded by some of the hurricane influences. we saw that with the jobless claims potentially. what this does to gdp. ultimately, you end

, your point of what the good to do with rates in november or december, i actually think and rafe bostic atlanta fed president said yesterday that they do nothing in november and they let it settle in, i think 50 was aggressive in september, i was thinking 325 is going to be appropriate but the 50 basis point move in september may cause them to step back in november especially considering what we saw the cpi and ppi with a little bit higher in what bond yields are telling us they are moving in the opposite direction of what the fed says they're doing in terms of lowering rat rates. >> a great point, let's get into earnings from the big bangs on friday as louisville earnings for the third quarter. >> overall were looking for about a fiber through a 3% earnings growth from where was moving into this quarter which i fully expect is going to happen we seen revisions come down the whole thing has to come down. i don't think we get to be disappointed this quarter i think they will come in line but i think you going to set us up for a better fourth-quarter into interesting e-zine in early 2025

bostic, a little bit earlier says he's keeping the door open to skipping a cut in november, but look, let's -- >> he's coming my way. >> you can't wish for the cards you hoped to have in your hand. you play the cards that you're dealt, correct? >> yes. >> we got the 50. the market thinks we'll get a couple more cuts, maybe 25 and 25. so let's play that hand. is that bullish for stocks? >> well, yes. i think it is bullish for stocks. the fact of the matter was it wasn't too long ago when we were worrying about the fed raising interest rates and then why aren't they lowering interest rate? and now we're saying, okay. more, give us more, but look, in my scenario, rates are pretty comfortable where they are relative to the economy and this notion that the interest rate sensitive areas of the markets and the midcaps and the small caps will make a comeback and i'm questioning that because they do need lower interest rates and i don't know that they'll get what the market is anticipating. so i think what you do is keep playing the s&p 500 and nothing is broadening out for the s&p 500 and the

biden even revealed that he told american forces to intervene and try to intercept some of those uh bostic everything in its power, be at 8.7 billion, be it more than 8.7 billion, in order to make sure that its project, its long planned project does not fail, because let's not forget that israel is the only post or the only way in, for america into the middle east, that way, that path is for it to build what it calls greater israel, this is this is its investment, so in order to keep its interests, in order to keep its investments, it's going to do everything in its power in order to make sure that israel does not quote cease to exist. right, thank you so much. professor nimmer, um, like i said, israely military has talked up the role of... the americans before, during and after the iranian operation, true promise to, what's the purpose behind that? isn't america already involved? yes, absolutely, it is involved from the very beginning after the 7th of october, they are involved, sometimes they seem as if they are trying to bring things down a little bit, but apparently that the americans

we sit down with the wife, bostic, and politician himself, where he outlined the different approaches between vodka and the west. looters speak, the russian suspects us. we respect the russian. this is not the case with western countries on this. the is no longer subject to the whims of a foreign power. the why this is our team to national reaching you live. i'm on new center with moscow. i a michael watching that but he's running a problem minister has a threat and that 11 on could suffer the same fate as gaza in which tens of thousands have been killed. and vast swats. subbing territory had been changed their rulings now later, a high ranking official in washington was questioned about that statement. and while he said such a scenario must not must be avoided. journalist wearing buying into his response as we cannot and must not see the situation and loving on turning to anything like the situation and gaza. that would, of course, not be acceptable, is up to the lebanese people, not anybody else to decide on who their government is. i said in response to the question, no country in

we've been hearing from rafael bostic. he expects u.s. growth to slow in 2024 but remain robust. mary daly says the central bank must stay vigilant as an nation and labor market -- inflation and the labor market cool. valerie, do we have clarity from these fed speakers as to the next steps? >> there are -- they are using the same lines they have been. this b word of balance. this is mary bailey yesterday talking about the risks to inflation and unemployment. she went on to say they must be vigilant to guard growth. sounds like the fed put is still alive. i want to draw your attention to one survey by the new york fed yesterday on credit card billing and sees -- delinquencies. they show that the odds of missing a debt payment in three months has risen on a steady incline. we now see a one in seven chance that a u.s. consumer misses a payment in the next three months. video forward-looking expectations when it comes to the help of the u.s. consumer. tom: a warning on some segments of the u.s. consumer. lvmh sales falling for the first time since the pandemic. we will look at why th

yeah, he's really sort of uh, i mean we're sort of heard this going bostic. what sort of, i mean seems to quite coleman during us for the intellectual. but this time, this time it seems on the usually ridiculous, almost childish. what does that sort of say to what the state of affairs are right now? well, you know, the state of affairs is unfortunately, the prices in the united states are through the roof. uh, ordinary americans are suffering. you know, we still have made millions of people without health care of millions of people unemployed, millions of people that can afford housing. meanwhile, the united states is arming belligerence in to potentially nuclear wars right now. and frankly, i think a lot of americans are wondering what our political class is exactly doing. and the political class increasingly doesn't seem to have any answers for us. at least not any answers that would go against the wishers the wishes of their billionaire corporate donors. so it really just seems like the, the western economy is kind of going off. the rails and politicians a

we will hear from mary daly and adriana kugler and raphael bostic. the nasdaq now less than 1% off its all-time high from july. the mag seven and nvidia with the all-time highs. let's bring in erin gibbs with gibbs management. great to see you. >> good morning. >> erin, i want to get to your word of the day. it is tied to the magnificent seven names. >> my word of the day is nuclear. this is all about what the resources we need for the nuclear plants. meaning uranium. that's how i'm playing the many headlines this have been hitting about nuclear programs coming on. >> you have two picks for us to play in the space. we had somebody with the under the radar name. one is etf ticker urf. the other is urnn. i have to say, both are underperforming the market year to date. the last one is actually in the red or fragsctionally higher of that news. i feel all year long, we are talking about the increased need for energy and power data centers and the whole a.i. trade. >> right. a few things will push these stocks up on a longer-term trend and really help with

. >> yesterday, we heard from raphael bostic saying he was okay with the pause.n your mind, if we do get that pause, what does that do to the markets? does it impact certain sectors or does it hit the market more broadly? >> well, i think it hits the markets broadly. i will say we're about to get bank earnings. the banks have been suffering under this, you know, inverted yield curve that feels like it's been going on forever. we are starting to see that unwind. a slightly better outlook on the economy, plus the fed cutting, that should have righted that yield curve. you have to wonder if we do get a pause, what does that do to the outlook for banks if they have to suffer farther. >> it sounds like you're talking about net interest income and net interest margins. is that the metric that you think will be hit by that? >> yeah, it's been hit for the last two years. so, without a doubt. >> what about rising rates on other activity? things like the ipo market and capital markets overall. if the rates stay elevated, the two-year pulling back from 4%. the ten-year has

we get fed speeches from raphael bostic and lisa cook. >>> let's get another check of the futures anding off another month and q4. the nasdaq turning positive a moment ago. it is positive right now. the dow would open 140 points lower. the s&p lower. for more, let's bring in victoria green of g squared private wealth. vicki, good morning. >> good morning, frank. >> vicki, what is your wex word of the day? >> my word of the day is blinders. you put blinders on race horses so they stayfocused. don't get distracted by the fact there is a bunch coming at you over the next 45 days. focus on earnings and economic data. put your blinders on. volume will ratchet up. >> vicki, it may be easier said than done. we have noise today. the east and gulfport strike. >> if this is a week long strike, that would take about a month and a half to undo the bac backlog. they are a little bit close. 77% raise versus 50% raise. they are hoping to do this quickly. a lot of retailers are pulling for import. retailers seem confident from costco to walmart thatinventory. if the supply chain is disrupted for a lo

atlanta fed president raphael bostic saying he is totally comfortable with skipping a rate cut. two year yield under the 4% level, 3.96%. one .09 on euro-dollar -- 1.09 on euro-dollar. brent $79 a barrel and gold 2645 per ounce as we close of the week. let's head over to asia. we are looking toward the announcement from the chinese finance ministry of potentially more fiscal stimulus. avril hong is in singapore. one are the markets looking like? avril: it is bracing for disappointment. take a look at how the csi 300 is faring going into the weekend with those declines and calibrating their expectations of what realistically we can see from china's finance ministry tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. local time. we have investors expecting $283 billion of fiscal stimulus being announced, but it is not just the amount. it will be important to watch the target of its support, because that will give us a sense of where the government's priorities lie. what a have seen on chinese stocks is going against the grain of the asia-pacific where they are managing to clock gains and shrugging off more or

cpi prints, as has a number of fed speakers, say for the likes of raphael bostic. if you look at swaps pricing, it's about 80%. they think there will be a chance of a rate cut come november. not much of a move compared to what we saw a right after that blowout jobs report. but this number from the u.s. inflation print does revive those concerns in a way of inflation, or at least keeps the debate about whether we see a positive 25 basis point cut in november. we are seeing markets in the region brushing it off. but to your point about china, we also have, as investors watch out for saturday's finance -- chinese finance minister briefing in terms of fresh stimulus. they think 283 billion dollars worth could be announced, and this could come in the form of bringing forward spending for next year to this year. we also had china announcing yet another briefing, that one coming on monday. you know that next week there is going to be a lot to digest. but to your point about trepidation, you can see how investors seem to be bracing for disappointment. csi 300 erasing the g

the central bank and continuing lower interest rates i know you don't agree with that but raphael bosticys he called for a quarter-point cut and he's open to a pause and cuts, your reaction. >> i think. there are so many opinions from that it is really confusing to the consumer and also the investor, yet so many fed officials so independently that there is no consensus, that's the first thing in the second thing recently all of the economic indicators like the phillips curve, the inverted yield curve, all of them have not worked the way that we anticipated historically, that adds to the uncertainty and when you have a bunch of fed officials saying everything from a-z i don't know what we can take away with advice for how to pick stocks all you want john lonski i want you to weigh in there is a lot of opinions with the 50 basis point cut, mr. anderson is on the right track the treasury bond market agrees with them in the ten year treasury yield at 3.65% just prior to the rate cut, right now it is approaching 4.10% the treasury bond market doesn't really believe that the fed will cut anoth

bostic saying there's a risk the economy runs too strong, and that could hamper the fed's plans to cut rates, kelly. >> you wonder, and we don't know yet, it's going to take a few more days, but to what extent the running hot concern gets pushed to the sideline depending on just how bad it is when the storm hits as he alluded to. >> yeah, that's always the case. it's been my experience that the storms tend to have both sides, a negative at the beginning, and then a positive on the other end when it comes to rebuilding, and i'm just talking about the economics of this, not obviously the personal and terrible issues that happen with regards to that. strictly speaking about numbers, especially when they hit big cities, they have the infrastructure to respond, and that's really the key when the aid is there and when the supplies can get in, the people can get in. it takes time. you have effects in the macro data. helene is more of an unknown because it's such a wide area and a remote area that could have negative implications for what seem to be to be years. >> we often see they downgrade

. >> we got a confirmation with the bostic headlines. >> we might pause. >> we might pause the rate cutss through the trade. how would you then capitalize on this notion that maybe the rate cutting pictures. >> given the surprises ere, right? in the last week or so, i think there's potential for more surprises over the next few weeks. so i think the best way for investors to play this is to really have rates upright in the long end of the curve or the best option in my view is to position for a curve flattening, right? if you look at the curve, the two-year part of the curve is optimal, so what you essentially would be doing is you would be paying the three-year rates and receiving the 20-year rates and positioning yourself for what we call as a bear flattener saying the rates would fly higher and that is the best way to position for any potential upside surprises that we would see in growth inflation in the next few weeks to months. >> let's be clear one quick point before we let you go. this is the long end rates moving slow toreer to the upsid the shorter term rates moving higher and

rafael bostic suggested skipping the meeting.ing a meeting given all the contradictions in the data the murkiness, why should still be to reduce rates. nela: three months ago i said it will be likely there will be stops and starts and monetary policy that they would not be on a smooth glide path. yes the economy is strong. every month you get a new narrative about the future direction. editing the fed is susceptible to that. these weather-related events don't make it any easier. there's a real possibility they may skip meetings in order to figure out what's going on. then -- and that is to be data-dependent. to be a little bit more long-term. i feel it we are kind of playing hopscotch with data. we just leap from one data point to the next. i don't think it's a viable strategy you want to see with the fed long term. >> they've got a pretty clear message on thursday. how much can we conclude this. of time that the u.s. is truly diverged from europe when it comes to economic trends. >> that divergence has been in play. so the labor

now bostic is saying it out loud and is it a real possibility?en it's going to happen because they are is really good news and it will be that the economy is very strong and mighty because inflation takes up that will be higher nominal growth which is supportive for equities along as we are not losing the angering of long running inflation. i don't think the equity market is really going to have a problem with it. we had six or seven rate cuts at the beginning of the year and only got a 50 so far. we don't need the rate cuts to get the equity markets. that has been a big theme of ours for a long time. if there is good news and they are slower to get the 3.5 then we could get the next one. >> it is good news and i put this tossed in yesterday who accused me of cherry picking the data but mostly it has been good news. >> i agree and i think it has generally been good news on the forward look. where we have come from, one of the reasons consumers are unhappy is that we have had a 21% cumulative rhyme the cpi -- rise in the cpi the past has this ugli

and now waller, i would say he didn't use the pause word like bostic did, saying we could pause or needor anything like that, but does not sound overly exuberant when it comes to more rate cuts. definitely don't expect the 50 again. we'll see if we get a 25. >> we mentioned some bofa numbers mentioning weak demand on earnings call, rail car loads, the so-called corporate misery index, all of those things getting better today. i don't know if you saw the fund manager survey or if you built anything, largest jump in investor sentiment since june of 2020. >> things are looking up. it wasn't supposed to be this way just after one little rate cut, right, in this period of the cycle. what i pulled out was the spending number from bank of america. we get a retail sales report next week. we are -- this week, sorry. and this is a consumer-led economy. so, bank of america says, we expect a spike in retail sales in september. they looked at their credit card spending. it surged by 0.6% month over month in september on a seasonally adjusted basis. gains in places that had been weak like department

however, raphael bostic the atlanta fed president, also out talking about the next move, and he saysit depends on unemployment. a surprise to the weak side -- and we get a jobs number on friday -- would pull me much further into needing another dramatic move. they're watching the jobs numbers, and they don't want to see a lot of weakness. i think that's going to determine the odds of a 50 basis point cut in november, now go back to under 40. i mean under 50. they were above 50 yesterday. now they're less than 50. the market still guessing on this, but the current guest mate is that they'll go 25. let's see what happens with the data. >> certainly discussion about the number on friday might be the last clean number we get for a while if this strike ends up disrupting labor data. for jolts, quits is again lowest since 2020. >> yeah. fewer quits for sure. the other data point to note today as it relates to this the arizona inflation numbers. see that? below 2%. 1.8% was the number in september. we've not exactly tick for tick correlated with europe, bunt but it is notable and now the eu

the yields did edge higher yesterday after atlanta fed president raphael bostic told "the wall streetournal." he would be interested in holding rates steady at the november meeting. the csi 300 and hang seng falling 3.5% overnight. the hang seng was up 3% and investors will watch for further stimulus in the government news conference scheduled for tomorrow. >>> let's talk about the squawk planner. more inflation data head. we have september producer prices due at 8:30 this morning. polled forecasters are expecting a decrease of .1% for the headline number and .2% without food and energy. we will hear from jpmorgan and wells fargo and blackrock in the next hour alone. >>> amd launching chips yesterday taking direct aim at nvidia's graphics processors. the chip is called the instinct mi. it will start production before the end of the year. amd did not reveal a cloud or internet customer for the chip. it said meta buys the chips and they were at hand on the launch event along with oracle. take a look. this is lisa su yesterday on "closing bell overtime." >> this was a big day for us. we

one individual that might be worth paying attention to his raphael bostic, many states that have beenl under his coverage. i will get all of that out at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. we have some comments from him, we will see how that addresses the economic fallout of the hurricanes. elsewhere, here is your bloomberg brief. yahaira: the pentagon says the u.s. visit by israel's defense minister has been postponed. they learned it is because of a last-minute objection from benjamin netanyahu. president joe biden is set to speak with netanyahu later today. taiwan semiconductor shares are rising .70% after sales at tsmc beat expectations as the company posted a 39% increase in revenue. nvidia and apple's main chipmaker will reveal results thursday and give investors a deeper look at the state and power of ai driven growth. lisa abramowicz sat down with the jp morgan chairman jamie dimon in london and asked if midsize banks should be allowed to merge. >> they should be allowed to merge and make that decision based on what they think is the best interest for shareholders. the government should n

i think raphael bostic suggested he might be open for a pause "if the data suggests that's the rightis waller, president williams from new york both sort of shrugged off the pause notion suggesting the data was always going tobe a little uneven. i think there's not much consensus for pause right now. that may emerge over time but based on the data thus far i suspect most people are going to go into the meeting thinking 25 basis points is the next thing. >> roger, we had a conversation earlier this morning how restrictive rates are at this point. the economy's doing very well. even where things stand. there has been demand from business as rates have come down. it doesn't feel like restrictive territory that some of us were older have gotten used to. >> i understand that. one could look at the fed gdp forecast now for the third quarter, which was as of a few days ago. i think october 9th or 10th. that number roughly 3.2%. no one thinks that, very few people would imagine that potential growth here is 3.2%. all of that feeds into the question you just raised, exactly how restrictive ar

more fed speak from cash carry, bostic tuesday we will get some trade balance on wednesday fed minutesjobless claims and some earnings on friday. newer sentiment and a ton of back earnings. wells fargo jp morgan taking things off. the lineup looks like this. we will catch up with katrina dudley, michael collins of pgm fixed income and greg of ey. thanks for choosing bloomberg tv. an equity market rallying hard. from new york city this morning, good morning. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪ it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my