was bostick talking about a pause? he said something like that before, but giving more detail, talking about september. is this a tone change, a shift to have the fed or nonvoting member say it might be worthy for us to put on the brakes this year? enda: i think it is a pretty hawkish message, but they're also acknowledging way minute, at some point they have to see how things are playing out. we had comments overnight from fail bostick, esther george, the hike is clearly there to curb inflation, but when they start seeing evidence inflation is coming up, they will see what pace of rate hikes to go from there often. -- thereafter. the san francisco fed president also made the comment that she didn't see sign of recession so she is not in the camp to keep hiking rates. i think the bigger takeaway is as we go into the second half of the year, it might be a different picture for the fed or we might see a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. none of course we could see a pause in what the fed is doing. manus: thank you very

do you have a bostick meeting out there where the tip point is?riya: i think president bostick is the first one to highlight some thing we have been saying for a while, that the reaction function of the fed is going to change once they reach neutral. i would argue there's almost no reaction function right now. they went to get to neutral. inflation is too high. when you get there, we are thinking that september, maybe november. i think if we see some signs of momentum slowing and wage inflation, as well as service inflation at least peeking out, and that might happen by november, i think that is the meeting. it is not just president bostick forget i think you will see more divergence at the fed. i think there will be those who say let's not overdo it. maybe we get there a year later. then those that say we have an inflation problem, let's keep going, i think that debate is right as they get close to neutral, in the fall of this year, that key inflection point for the fed. tom: what you just said there is sacrilege. you ought to be in davos with ev

romaine bostick in new york. romaine: markets continue to oscillate around.out a lot of the retailer stocks and consumer spending and how it is holding up. sales growth was up pretty good here that there was concern about margins. they are continuing to compress. the story for a lot of retailers, even the ones that are supposed to be recession proof. costco shares down about 1%. big lots, though shares down 20%. comp sales are down 14%. a surprise loss for the quarter. it's about margins. it's also about inventory, jumping 50% in the last quarter. gap inventory levels of 34% year-over-year. now concern about companies posting high levels are in a position to start discounting in an environment where they're being squeezed. gap shares down 18%. an ugly report. it did not provide clarity to what the path forward is to reverse the trend. a bright spot is alta beauty. everyone is buying beauty products, going up and down the roman steps. shares up about 8%. they are seeing no shock to consumer spending. tom: romaine, 52 bottles on the bathroom sink. i have no ide

we will head over to the global conference, where romaine bostick is standing by with what to expectt hour. romaine: we are live at the beverly hilton in los angeles, we are going to broadcasting live. this place is crawling with debt investors, private credit investors. we will kick off the show talking equities. we've got the head of public equity at goldman sachs asset management, katie cox will join us in a minute. we will talk over at carlisle, been real estate. you know him you love him, he has a lot of investments during the pandemic. some distributed wealth, some did not. he will stop by and give us his perspective. we have got a lot to cover. we are still going to talk credit, do not worry. then over at ares capital, there are so many people, it is hard to keep up. this is been a great show so far, the work folks have done out here to put this on, try to get this back to normal after the pandemic disruptions, a pretty good crowd. everyone is excited. fighting all of the concerns, everyone is still opportunistic. jon: yesterday, we heard from ken griffin as he was addressing

dani: to that point, we had bostick talking about causing in september. you have bullard switching to the potential of rate cuts late next year. is this a tonal change? is something different happening at the fed where they are starting to take this step back and pause type of approach? >> that is really interesting. we are starting to see these mutterings and it is definitely something that the markets and investors are looking at very closely. i do think it is early days to say that we will see a pause, but definitely it is something we are starting to see markets and investors talk about more. as you mentioned, inflation still a problem. the rbnz incredibly hawkish going forward. in the u.s., it is definitely something that we are going to probably see a lot more talk in the markets about a potential pause. dani: as stephen englander writes this morning saying, be careful what you wish for with the fed wanting to slow down the economy. manus: absolutely. i think it is going to be a volatile week. dani: it certainly is. thank you for helping us get set

tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much.ps i am the ugly american, when i read all of patrick o'brien about the napoleonic wars. it was always a shock there was politics, battles, and wars up there. at the same thing happened in 1939. oh yeah, there's the baltic sea, wars, alex and battles up there. it is now the same, and a great mystery to americans that we don't study in school is three months, one week, and six days of the winter war of finland and the soviet union. 25,000 missing and dead for finland in three months. lisa: just a tragic, and what does that mean going forward given the proximity of that region? tom: and as any of that was in the history of what america knows now, as we look at a new nato? the former prime minister of finland, honored to speak with him this morning. we are ignorant of the moment, and i would suggest, other than mr. stoltenberg here at davos, you are by far the most important part in -- important person in the nato community. how close are you to joining nato? >> we are very close, and thi

i am romaine bostick.loomberg. ♪ mark: the european union leaders have agreed to back a partial plan on russian oil. it would make part of the package of sanctions, aimed at punishing russia for invading ukraine. the sanctions would ban the sale of russian oil and petroleum products delivered by ships, following a two-day meeting in brussels, they spoke at a news conference alongside the european commissioner.

romaine: i am romaine bostick. taylor: i am taylor riggs.he text selloff deepens. -- tech selloff deepens. on the haven trades we have got you covered. food, energy, shelter, airfare are all up and up. the with the inflation insights of omair sharif on breaking down the numbers. plus, we speak to the ceo anthony noto. his outlook for the consumer, their borrowing and what they do amid global uncertainty. all that and much more. romaine: the selloff resuming.

we are joined by romaine bostick and ed ludlow. romaine, it feels like the latest wave comes from crypto, but now becoming a broader selloff. what is your take? romaine: we are not quite at 2000 yet but when you look at the key technical levels, where we have come and where we are potentially getting, the general sentiment is there is not much of a poll, so you talk about, is this drawdown we are in the midst of with the nasdaq 100 or the s&p 500 match up with what we saw then. not quite, but getting close. and we do look at oversold conditions, technical measures like how many stocks trading below the 200 day moving average, we are low but not where we were during the dotcom bus. guy: when it burst, it hit san francisco really hard. apple down 22% today. how far could this go? how much fear is there where you are? ed: in five days, we have gone from a conversation around whether it is the bottom to have we even determined the direction of travel? you look at citigroup strategists and their note that tech is an area you don't want

romaine bostick on stage focusing on private equity real estate.ant to get your reaction to the big news of the day. the fed hike was largely priced in. fed telegraphing it may be won't be as some people thought. >> that is the way the market is reacting. i believe it is normal to review. we're coming out of 10 years of accommodating policy. that is creating spillover. about time we get there. as an investor, i welcome that. we can approach the marsh are bash the markets with the cost of capital. romaine: how much does this affect it? mathieu: for us, it doesn't. we always captured the liquidity premium. we tend to do exclusively rates on the private traded side. i would not say this is no news. it is just part of what we have to manage. it is about macro, micro, working on companies. it is business as usual for us. romaine: you are a bottom up investor. you have to pay attention to broader economic conditions. when you look at economic conditions globally, are you anticipating we could be in for a significant slowdown in growth? mathieu: it is lik

this is "bloomberg markets the close" with caroline hyde, romaine bostick, and taylor riggs. >> is 2:. in new york. what did i miss? volatility apparently pushes on after a brief uptick, stocks pushed lower. on the bond reaction, we are back together and we've got you covered. one of tory policy is under the microscope, we are live at the hoover institute controvert -- hoover institute conference. stocks are hit across the board. we will speak with a software chief executive about what the small businesses he serves are saying. all of that and more c

picking means you're going to potentially -- you go bostick's route, you could not curb inflation. go waller's route, you could curb inflation, but put us in a recession. and i don't think mr. president wants to be on record to do either of those. >> charles: right. >> the fed has a tight rope to walk, as you know, threading the needle the other analogy, and time will tell. i think they are going to have a chance to pause because as you know, charles, inflation's already come off the peak. let's hope that continues. >> charles: you know, you're right. i know you have also been in the camp that sees recession next year. let's see 2023 phenomenon. does that mean stock market gains between now and then would be limited? >> i'm afraid so meaning we aren't going to make new highs. not that long ago, the first week of january. we could have some nice rallies. remember, charles, in mid march, the s&p went up 10% in three weeks. the nasdaq 16%. we had another rally started friday before last week, up 6 1/2, but from that low, we're up about 9%, and we're green again today having been red e

, coming up, president by meeting with the prime minister of japan on a monday plus fed president bostickr george speaking. u.s. and eurozone pmi coming out on tuesday. the meetings on was a fellow by jobless claims on thursday. we round out the week with personal income and spending on friday. from new york city, try and enjoy your weekend. from new york, this was bloomberg "real yield." this is bloomberg tv >> ♪ as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you. jon: welcome to "bloomberg markets." kriti: in the last hour and a half we are seeing the s&p 500 hit bear market territory. down 2.2% when it comes to the s&p 500. look at the cross asset action. vix

joining me is romaine bostick in new york. romaine: keep an eye on the market.alk about constructive right now we are seeing here in the premarket. we do have a pretty decent rally. volume is relatively light in the premarket, but it's a broad-based rally provided some potential upside. keep a mind jp morgan has released a presentation on its website that shows the company increasing its outlook for net interest income. the shares up about 1.5% on the day. even some of the tech companies are getting on the action today. not by much, but you have apple, or soft, all of that. elsewhere, keep an eye on what is happening in the software space. according to people familiar with the matter that bloomberg news has spoken to, broadcom is said to be making a bid for vmware. this is a big deal, he chipmaker buying a software company. broadcom has dabbled in this space before with the purchase of symantec's enterprise business. broadcom shares down about 5% on the day and vmware up about 22% in the premarket. siga technologies also moving. these companies that make antivir

let's check in with romaine bostick for more. remain: -- romaine: good morning.ut sums tech stocks and some are getting bids. some fell on the back of fundamentals including palo alto. shares higher by more than 12% in the market after a beef raised corridor. then apple higher by 1.5%, no real reason, they may be buying into the depths. a little caution even with that 1.5% in the premarket, apple setting up for an eighth straight weekly decline. a streak we have not seen since back to 2018. dan eyes out here defending the position, not only reiterating the outperform rating but making the case a lot of babies are being thrown out with the bathwater. i'm not sure that matters right now. investor sentiment is driving this market and it remains dour. dear is emblematic of that, shares down 4% in premarket. just a few minutes ago, the shares camped out around 3 48. retailers have been all over the map all week long. some issues we have heard for walmart, target, and other big retailers. there seeing decent foot traffic but the inflationary pressures are just too much

romaine bostick is off today. >> i am caroline hyde.latin american conference we are bringing together the region's visits, and we are talking about everything the market is talking about.

profile bostick today saying we just need to get to neutral.t is a wait and see. >> with this cpi gauge, are we seeing a peek inside? >> a peak is not going to be enough. peaking at 8.5% year-over-year, a 40 year high, the fed wants to get it a lot lower than that. look at this chart. the numbers are going to show the headline cpi probably went from 8.5%, they are looking for 8% even on the core, looking at something like 6%, 5%. there's a big pulley in the monthly inflation numbers. gasoline prices fell, if you look at seasonal adjustments. if you look at the core cpi, you're going to see a somewhat higher monthly number, due to home prices rising, etc. services picking up,. they have got to see the start falling and keep falling. that's where the expect more rate hikes this year. >> how much of all of this is priced into the markets right now? >> the bounce that we saw last night in the u.s. was not surprising. given how much markets have sold off. was it a convincing bounce? was it a mini bounce? liquidity remains low. the market is valuable

we will hear from bostick, tk, there is a lot lined up. who blinks first?: this is not a small idea. this is not a small idea to discuss this morning. there is an assumption this cuts both ways. they let it run into some real damage, or as you say, how do they message this? i don't have a good answer, but the radar is up. i think it is going to come from the chairman, or maybe even from secretary yellen with her experience. jonathan: overwhelmingly the consensus is they do not blink. that it is 50 basis points at the mac -- at the next meeting. natural conditions right now doing a lot of heavy lifting. a lot of people push back against this, but we have seen it before. the test of the fed is building already. tom: the test of the fed is a front and center, and with inflation reports tomorrow we are on top of that for you. right now in washington, joe mathieu joins. thrilled to get him up here in the early morning. i do my research and go to what matters nationally, and that is the great benchmark of the 16 ounce strip steak at burns's steakhouse in tampa, f

alix: yesterday he was like, oh, bostick is wearing one. not today.uy: two days in a row, not going to buy it. but the second thing is, she mentioned about 2%. that i think is something that i think is going to be difficult to achieve without breaking something. and many people are trying to figure this one out. we'll get a print out of 8% and we are miles away from target. she talked about the fact it could take time to get inflation back to the 2% goal. we are aiming for a long run goal of 2%. but what does that mean? are we practice symmetry involved in all of this? i would be surprised. but she did say we need to get on top of inflation. we are heading towards 2%, that is the long-term goal. she is not talking about 3%, we would be happy. alix: you also see the short end selling off and equities turning to red, the s&p off by half a percent. and at the that michael mckee was trying to get her to stay we will tolerate a recession. she did not go that far, but if you destroy demand enough you get inflation down to 2%, what kind of recession does tha

tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. more this evening on walmart and home depot.d price down. that is the mix for something rare in the last decade, a bond bear market. winnie cisar is global head of strategy at creditsights. you can talk about spreads, analyze loans in different categories, and the answer is price is down, and she joins us this morning. i want to look at the bloomberg total aggregate index, total return aggregate, full faith and credit index, and the answer is we are down 12% in price, 7% and last. can you state it is a bond bear market? reporter: -- winifred: it feels like we are in a bond bear market get investors are seeing a lot of signs of continued negativity. don't fight the fed is definitely the mantra, and the fed seems to be on a very hawkish course to continue to hike rates. that being said, there are some signs of constructive positivity on the credit market side of things. tom: in the equity market, i clawback on growth. i clawback on use of cash. how do you clawback from a 12% loss, frankly in ig it could be an 18% loss? what is the

last week, it was president bostick saying we have a pause after the summer and governor wallace having none of it. lisa: looking at the inflation data, we saw mortgage levels, mortgage rates come down last week. yet we continue to see the price pressure go to the upside and we will get the latest read on that at 9:00 a.m. with housing data. year over year, we have seen a record increase in housing prices despite mortgage rates increasing and the cost creating a prohibitive environment for potential clients. it's a very concerning mix and we will get a read on consumer confidence at 10:00 a.m. how much do we see an ongoing decline in how much the american public has in terms of optimism? 100 -- 1:15 p.m., the president will meet with jay powell and the treasury secretary on inflation. how much can they talk about bringing up the unemployment rate? is this the reality of rate hikes? how do we end up with more people unemployed in this environment? it seems like the only outcome is how you dovetail that message. jonathan: some have said the lads getting together in the oval office a littl

tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much.ow, kathy jones, chief fixed income strategist at the schwab center for financial research. a given bond etf's down 16% at price, 19% annualized, big loss. i would suggest the bond market handles price decline and a bond bear market differently than the equity market. what are you observing from schwab clients as they enjoy price decline? kathy: well, i am not sure they are enjoying price decline, but what we are seeing is investors trying to take on a little more income by going into longer duration bonds. this has been our call recently, sue sartre gradually -- recently, to start gradually adding duration as yields go up because you have the opportunity now to get some relatively attractive coupons at prices that are often below par, so that means not only the opportunity to earn more income in a portfolio, but also potential capital gains. lisa: where is the biggest opportunity when you talk about those coupons? is it in credit, the riskier the better? or is it in full faith and cre

there's a lot moving beneath the surface, so let's get over to romaine bostick with some individual namesmaine: a lot of that story centers around the retailers, and it is looking pretty good. we had kind of a mixed picture on the retailers last week. this week is has been a little more upbeat. he sees shares up after raising its full-year guidance. comp sales came in at about 12%, and the company is expecting that momentum to continue as it has seen a big shift to occasion apparel. the idea that a lot of us are going back out of the house to the fancy events and we need fancy clothes to do that. in the meantime we are still stocking up on stuff for our homes. williams-sonoma up about 8%. comp sales were up 9%. the street was only looking for 3% growth, so triple what the street was looking for. dollar general, which services the lower income end of the spectrum, shares up 11% after comp sales came in about 4% and the guidance also seemed to be above the average estimates. that is the set up on the retailer front here. the other big question for the day on the macro basis goes back to som

fed head bostick and kashkari came out in the last day and said they are not behind the curve.anet yellen came out and said the fed is fighting them mightily, fighting inflation mightily, and the markets are upset with them bsing the american public and the market. it is sitting there straight in our face right now. it is amazing to me how they have completely dropped the ball. we're not, 3% inflation, not at four, we're at eight, maybe we'll come down to 7. we'll still be at seven. i don't know where it's coming from that they're doing their jobe. they're doing nothing. they're not even on the playing field at this juncture. the market is yelling and screaming at them on daily basis. we're knot even talking bond market. look what is going on with stocks right now. of the markets have big ears and yelling, screaming do something more, do something different and they just sit. we got another six weeks to the next fed meeting. charles: with that in mind, gary, stick with you for a moment and go back to you, phil. i know you don't really have sort of the buy signals to the downsid

dollar jumping on safe haven joys while rough ale bostick advocates for just 50 basis point rate increases. insurance headache. allstate bets on the higher rates to customers as inflation hurts earnings. we will speak to the ceo tom wilson. from new york, i'm alix steel, with my cohost in london guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." it is a pleasure to be back. it has been 15 long weeks. it is a pleasure to see you. guy: it is fantastic to see you. we have been missed -- you have been missed. everyday we played that intro, guy johnson and alix steel, so you have been in our thoughts. . it is so fantastic to have you back, and we've got so much to talk about. your journey over those last 15 weeks, we'll talk about the details in just a moment. i think there's lessons in all of this for all of us. so let me just say, from the whole team, from everybody, it is great to have you back, and we are going to look after you and make sure that your transition back into work is as easy as possible. so let's get on with that work and talk a little bit about what is happening today. we've got da

the real clear politics graph to get the trump endorsement -- scott >> i don't know if your earl bostick imagine a success last night. probably not. but it's amazing how well he is done in the relationship that he has with the voter base. i know that as a former politician endorsements do not really matter. he wanted endorsement's but they don't really change the outcome of an election unless it's a donald trump endorsement. what happened this you have people who politician say they are going to work for and help out, then they print forget about them. donald trump says i'm gonna forget about a wall -- he did i'm gonna go after china and i'm gonna put tariffs on them to make them free traders. i'm going to put conservatives pro-life justices on the court. it made people's lives better. they love him for it. so j.d. vance as your guide in his america first, they trust him because he's never lied to them. >> exactly. that's exactly what happened. emily, today president biden decided to test out his new midterm method. take a look. >> let me tell you about this ultimate maga agenda. the mag

charles: bostick telegraphed that. >> he did. there was something really crucial in these minutes.r not it would be problematic. that is code words for saying, if we get bumps along the way with the run-off of the balance sheet, maybe we'll take our foot off the accelerator with quantitative easing. i think that is what markets are really celebrating right now. charles: you've been pointing out the housing market for sometime. >> uh-huh. charles: you were pointing out cracks in it, we you saw the damn break with new home sales, down 25% in the last two months. many say the fed is in quandary paying for mortgage-backed securities in a different rate environment. how do they deal with that? what does it mean for the housing market? >> it is real difficult if the fed starts selling mortgage-backed securities. because mortgage-backed securities on balance sheet is 2, 2 1/2 coupons. that is dog year ago. now 5 1/2% mortgages. if they sell that 2 1/2, that technically would occur a loss. that is so bad on i cannily. they will be very cautious when it comes to mortgage-backed securities.

ralph bostick spoke at two events. that is something. don luskin speaks at one., he is on deck, not in studio. biden administration loves to make the oil industry the villains but face it, americans want solutions not fingerpointing. congressman lee zeldin, he is in studio. i will ask him what is the republican plan? ♪. [ marcia ] my dental health was not good. i had periodontal disease, and i just didn't feel well. but then i found clearchoice. [ forde ] replacing marcia's teeth with dental implants at clearchoice was going to afford her that permanent solution. [ marcia ] clearchoice dental implants gave me the ability to take on the world. i feel so much better, and i think that that is the key. ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" fr

we already kind of heard bostick suggest, everything they're doing, even though they haven't done ithe jawboning part of their quiver they really believe it is working and hard to argue it is not. >> what happens when home prices go higher? homebuyers turn into renters. rent prices go up. that is double in the cpi than it is in the pce. we need to watch rents. charles: mitch? >> i agree with you, victoria. food and shelter are the things that consumer cares about. so if home prices are continuing to go up, we do an entire episode on that one, but home prices continuing to go up, food prices continuing to go up, when does the consumer drives the economy get beaten up so badly it will hurt rest of the year. charles: people have to pay rent. >> and eat. mcdonald's the one dollar menu is the two dollar menu. >> it is crazy. you're nibbling a little bit no pun intended with mcdonald's? >> our max mandate for cash is 20%. we're at 15%. when we were talked two or three weeks ago, we were at 17, 18 percent. we put a little bit to work. even within every sector we're defensive. even consumer

continue to look at exactly what they plan to do in june, and july, you now start to hear raphael bostick, the atlanta fed president, saying be really careful, don't be wreckless. i think that the fed looks at the stock market a bit too much, and that they may start to wobble, he maybe the first that's really starting to wobble to say well, maybe we need to backup. is that a mistake, because i can tell you, i'm not seeing get less expensive around here. >> we have to look for the green shoots, and it's springtime, we should be looking to the things that do well in quantitative tightening, and those sectors should be banking, energy, and consumer durables, and i think the move that we saw yesterday across-the-board in financials, to me, that was the first glimmer of hope i'd seen in a long time. liz: yeah, well, we'll be watching all of it more and again, the markets are not disappointing with volatility at least. we do have the vix up about 4% off the highs of the session, so a little bit of the tightness coming out of the market. john gagliardi, mark mahaney always a pleasure to have you

its been so many years since we were cutting rates, but you just saw the atlanta fed chief raphael bostick starting to say well, you know, the fed should really be careful and not be reckless. that's indicated to me, maybe i'm reading too much between the lines but that they're starting to get scared, and they're thinking -- >> well i don't know if they're getting scared but clearly, they're sitting on the head of a pin. now, it shouldn't be all about the stock market. obviously, from the standpoint of your viewers and the folks in the business, we would like it to be all about the stock market , but there's a much- bigger picture out there and the stock market obviously is going to reflect what they do and what they don't do. i would say with one 50 bps rise on top of a 25 bps rise and maybe another one if that's enough to scare a fed member or the fed, then we have bigger problems than we realize. liz: agreed. teddy, brent, thank you, and while you two were on the screen we hit a brand new session hi, dow up 306 we're just up 304 so right almost there at the moment big moves a rally righ

we read them too closely i agree, what's been said since then, you know, with bostick and the atlanta the door to saying september is not so sure in terms of a hike or at least the magnitude of it, you know, that's pressure and something the market has take on the heart. >> taking a look here at -- i don't know a what to call them, social media stocks, s.n.a.p. is up after that historic loss yesterday, 41%, 42% i think is where we ended on the day down, maybe 43%. some of the other companies' stocks coming along wit who rely on advertising you herd from brendt thill at the top of the program negative on his indicators in terms of the checks they do shares of twitter up about 2.3%, maybe a little higher than elon musk's purchase price when he bought that large stake that started his quick road to actually making acquisition offer for the company that was accepted at $54.20 we all know what's happened since then you can do the math and look at the enormous spread to that purchase price yesterday, you know, mike, you and i were talking, i detailed in of the reasons why he is obligated to

we're learning from the federal reserve president atlanta, bostick hinting, he and colleagues might be getting worried about overdoing it. we'll have to be very careful in this tightening policy, even holding out the possibility come september they might pass on a rate hike. other fed governors, district presidents have hinted of that. what are we to make of all this? reporter: there is a caution nair ray tale here they have laid out and they want the market to be sure what they're doing the next two meetings, 50 basis points and the market can count on that what we're maring from different fed presidents. beyond that they will look at data coming through. there is a concern should the market turn or should the economy turn in a direction that the fed doesn't want to see, then maybe they will hold off go a little bit softer towards second half of the year. i did interview during your program when you were out, st. louis fed president jim bullard, he believed that the second half of the year we'll see more growth than we're actually anticipating right now. we're in a slow period now. he

july, the real question is what happens in september, and you know we had some whispers from are bostick pods tried to get a handle on inflation the time to get under control until paul volcker every single time a pause or u-turn median time from start of tightening cycle to pause or u-turn was 1/2 months a various runs for u-turn and pause because unemployment was ticking up, it was because maltreatment weren't finings inning particularly well inflation come down not back to nominee levels if history is a guide i think markets are probably looking at the music thinking maybe a pause u-turn later this year. >> that is what stephanie pomboy has been staying. dagen: i was a going to answer your question that treasury market is focused on an impending recession. while the -- equity investors are still flush with cash because again, theed fed hasn't really started to destroy money yet with the balance sheet reduction can we expect anything out of biden administration that will help the country in terms of getting us back on track, and even i mentioned earlier even deregulation or alleviating