the main bostick alongside scarlet fu. -- romaine bostick alongside scarlet fu.et: this is the fed speakers are remarkably consistent about their message. inflation is an issue and the path of rates is h

joining us to discuss, our bloomberg markets cohost, romaine bostick. i read joins us from intelligence. romaine, let's start with you. haven't seen you for ages. what i have, but not on this show on air. nice to see you. this market got way ahead of itself it seems as a result of the fed may be signaling easier times to come. the market ignoring what the ecb was saying and hearing something else. what are you hearing in terms of your expectations from here? what does this market look like to the people you are talking to? guy: i think the -- romaine: i think the general consensus is that the best is probably behind us. it's probably in january. you see it reflected in official estimates put out for the year, including the survey we did in december and updated in late january. looking at the year-end price targets we are either at or above some of those already. even the more bullish forecasts like the folks over at oppenheimer. something like a 10% to 15% rally, that seems to be a little bit more of an outlier in when you sort of adjust and smooth out

romaine bostick alongside katie greifeld. >> is been a while.ssed you. >> we are keeping an eye on the markets. >> it's not pretty. we have the s&p 500 off by 120%. it was down much more, so we are off the session lows, but an ugly and to an ugly week at

romaine bostick alongside katie greifeld. we invited your twin but she could not make it here. both have brown hair and similar sounding names. romaine: sometimes she curls it. katie: stocks are rallying today. romaine: is this a rally? katie: it was a pivot in conversation. you have a little green on the s

i am romaine bostick beside shelley, this is "bloomberg markets: the close."t a drop in the numbers is a complete shift in exclusion -- inflation expectations and fed expectations. >> a tough same half of the year, leaving a lot of questions on how you play the

i'm romaine bostick and we are looking ahead to a tuesday report, rally and hard to the end of the daylet: it is bad when it comes to the bonds. a different story for the long end of the curve, everything hinges o

and finally fed president logan, bostick and logan. our guests are still with us. time for the rapidfire round, three engines, three quick answers. does the terminal rate get to 6%? >> no. >> no. >> no. katie: 10-year treasury yield peaked at 4.3% in october, do we test that level again this cycle? >> no. >> yes. >> yes. katie: we've got a leave it there. thanks to all of you. from new york, that does it for us. this was bloomberg real yield and this is bloomberg. . ♪ >> welcome, the one-year mark of the russian invasion of this country, ukrainian president says his people will secure victory if allies maintain their suit word. he says winning the war will bring with it a new international order. >> let me be frank -- [indiscernible] overall on the continent and the international organizations so how should we handle the different secured infrastructures?

the s&p 500 -- romaine bostick alongside scarlett pool. -- scarlet fu.maine: it gives you a sense on how investors are trying to look at the data. they are making their own assessments and it is s

romaine bostick, look who showed up again.decided to grace or presence on a friday. romaine: to talk about how turbulent this week has been, the set up for next week, the big cpi report. interesting to see the price action. scarlet: there is going to be changes in

romaine bostick kicking you off to the close on this monday afternoon alongside scarlet fu. >> thanke back to you as well. romaine: we talk about where we have been seeing in this market and around the world. the big data released on ryan day gave a lot of people a big of a wake-up call of the balance between a strong economy and the fed's fight against inflation is

we had bostick speaking earlier, he said the strong jobs report we got friday could be something thatminal rate a little higher than where it is currently expected. in terms of what else, the korean yuan looking weaker. we will have notes coming up from the be ok and the finance mystery -- ministry concerning the internationalization of the korean yuan. the whole idea is to expand trading. let's change now because in australia, central banks focus today. we had that decision from the rba. the expectation is for another hike of 25 basis points. the key question is around the guidance, whether we will have expectations of how near we are to the end of the timing cycle. also, keeping an eye on wti, rising a little over expectations. shery: our next guest says growth is set to de-synchronize around the world. let's discuss where the opportunities are with ray sharma-ong, investment director of multi-asset solutions at aberdeen. good to have you with us. we have seen a lot of optimism at the start of the year over emerging markets, given what is happening in china. now we are seeing cracks

you had neel kashkari and rafael bostick talking about hiking more but the markets are not buying it.uy: i wonder how many times he will use the word disinflation? that's the word everybody latched onto. it is disinflation going to be exponents from the lexicon and the way the fed communicates? this goes to her question of the day. will the markets listen to j powell this time? let's ask michael mckee that question. let's ask ira jersey that question. mike, will the markets be listening to powell or and what will they be listening for? michael: they will be listening for any kind of deviation from his message on wednesday when he said we will raise rates and we will leave rates high. what he didn't say is we are going to go higher than we anticipated and now that's what you are hearing from the other members of the open market committee. what wall street wants to know is does he joined that chorus or does he just say i am sticking with what i got and we will stay the course and see what happens? i suspect that's most likely out come to keep the markets from overreacting but the i dia

i am romaine bostick alongside scarlet fu. welcome to the close. >> we found some momentum here.igh at the moment. >> flying high with 7/10 of 1%. >> that's the direction at least. >> the

romaine bostick alongside sonali basak.dy to start the close trade >> the s&p still down on the day. romaine: keeping an eye on some of the technical days. a few weeks ago we were talking about the big break on the moving average grade those averages being tested to the downside.

mary daly, i mean, bostick i guess you could go either way with, susan collins -- >> kashkari went 180 from dove to hawk. >> can you do more than 180? he did more than a 180. >> if you're telling us based on your reporting and how you understand things that june is in play, seriously in play, josh, you tell me what does it mean for the stock market? the stock market of late doesn't seem to care very much i don't know if it doesn't believe the fed is going to get there, it doesn't think it's going to be necessary because inflation is coming down, or we are just in some strange world where stocks are just going to continue to go up for a little while. >> i think in the estimation of the stock market, whatever basis points they're doing right now will be the first ones taken off if and when they need to be. so there doesn't seem to be that much stress about it i think what underpins the whole thing is the employment situation, which is really incredible this will be studied ten years from now people will say, wait a minute, the fastest rate hiking cycle or the second fastest of all time p

powell said this and the market has not reacted on two cases over the last week about -- we have bostick saying this. >> yeah. >> so here's the deal. if we have inflationary readings start to tick up and the jobs market stays where it is or -- what do you think will happen to stocks so i do feel like the higher we go, if we go to your 4300 i think it could set up for a dangerous situation and last year we talked about this, on a year where the s&p was its lows was down 25%, nasdaq down 35%, it was orderly on the way down it was never -- we never had a bit of panic here. the vix was only above 30. it felt like for a few minutes, you know what i mean, when it did that and that was the time that you bought stocks, right, we had these huge big rallies. i think we're in the midst of these rallies, the disregard for the fact that the fed is telling you rates will stay elevated longer but pricing in something different. >> right now things are okay doesn't it feel like there's a path higher. we're through the bulk, right, the heavy part of earnings season here, we're through, you know, the fed

rafael bostick talking about the peak rate needing to be higher. of whether that's just a consensus view. kathleen: president atlanta fed i consider him a centrist. he's never too far to the hocker side or the dovish side. perhaps this is becoming the consensus and it is -- this will be -- maybe this is foreshadowing with jay palisade tomorrow because rafael has had the benefit of seeing the jobs report, that's what he address. the rate may have to go above five .1%, number one, and he's looking for more 25 basis point hikes but if inflation is persistent in the economy stays strong, he could see it going to a 50 basis point hike. that's very important. this is the kind of analysis we will get from jay powell? don't forget, he said he expects to more rate hikes. he doesn't expect a rate hike stopping and then cutting rates. he expects the rates to stay high through the end of the year, which is what raphael bostic said. it's very possible this is the kind of stuff we will get, kind of comments from jay powell when he talks to the economic club of w

eastern time and later this week, all the rest on the agenda after the comments we heard from rafael bostickt what you call full bostic? lisa: on thursday, they talked about at peak for an -- fed funds rate below 9% in april and march and 4.4% by the end of the year. now we are looking at 5.1% peak fed funds rate going down to maybe four point 7% surprising of rate cuts and a higher terminal fed rate which changes the inflation for assets and people are adjusting. jonathan: we get more data friday and i think those cuts get pushed off the table pretty quickly. tom: if we get more data, what we will hear from the chairman today with mr. rubenstein is no chairman has never been this data-dependent? jonathan: that's valentine's day? tom: it is. cameron dawson joins us now from new edge well. i love what you have in your sophisticated note about what the speculators are doing. it's not bill gross you are talking about, you're talking about the de-grossing that's going on now. explain what that is. >> we have seen this utter confidence by the bond market that we are going to get much easier polic