on that note, you did get commentary todayfrom bostick, the atlanta president. he said it was a new side risk that i think bears scrutiny in the coming months. it's too early to cut rates now. if they do, then you risk have the exuberance go to another level. and that's the crux of it, right? you have the risk of igniting this over exuberant action in the market for one place and then you risk inflation going back in the direction the fed doesn't want it to go. >> i think that's a good way to put it, scott. it's as if your conversation really leads into this quite well. he's afraid about what you guys around the table are going to do and the ceos are going to do when the fed cuts rates. he sees two rate cuts this year, and he said we may not do them back-to-back, we may take our time between them. he's concerned about the issue, because pent-up exuberance which could mean a change in the pace of cuts, and he uses the word pounce in terms of investment once the fed cuts rates and this could lead to inflationary pressure. he notes the number of categories in the c

it's not just the fed's rafael bostick getting more hawkish let's bring in steve liesman for more thatke you're very hawkish, but i don't think that's the case. you want to sum up the fact that the mark was a little bit too quick to say three cuts are coming after last week >> yeah. yeah i mean, i'll go with reporting where i think the fed is going, but wolf, it's worth pointing out two fed officials are reminding investors that there is a risk of going all in with that the fed will cut three times and start in june. lisa cook, the fed governor said a careful approach to further policy adjustments and sees only one down from two at a later start. fed chair jay powell at the press conference did talk in a somewhat dovish way with rate cuts and the committee as a whole was a touch more hawkish and not going overboard and a touch more hawkish take a look. forecasting more than the median of three cuts and just one does now and that's december to the march making projections and nine here at the median and nine forecasting and fewer than three cuts that's it. one duffisovish part was more

i mean, you had rafael bostick just yesterday of the atlanta fed if saying one maybe. >> yeah.f you look at futures, if you look at futures, futures are showing us that there's still optimism that the fed is going to lower rates. i personally have a very hard time with that because consumern very hot. the employment market a has been very tight. so i don't see how they're going to justify it. but the markets are saying that they are. now, this week -- keep in mind, liz, last week we had a blackout, the fed couldn't speak, the speakers couldn't -- liz: now they're all talking. >> now they're all talking, so this week if they come out and signal that there's going to be interest rate cuts, expect the market to focus on that. hu liz do not hold your breath, viewers. not that i am any fancy pants economist, but already if rafael bostick is sort of, you know, the lead rear here, he's saying only one cut. we shall see. jeff, it's good to see you. >> thank you, liz. liz: all right. krispy kreme's stock on track for a record percentage increase after striking a national partnership wit

collin: bostick last week addressed the idea of a premature cut that stimulates demand and fuels we acceleration of inflation. that's not our base case now. we think worst case is it levels off your. but we think it should continue. i agree with the quote you lead with before about the risk of inflation may be re-accelerating and the need to begin hiking rates again. i think that would be bad for the economy and risk assets and i think the fed is very tuned into that idea and it goes with the idea that they want to take a patient, thoughtful approach rather than risking prematurely cutting rates. sonali: almost gives credence to slower for longer. talking about potential softening of the economy what is your view of how bad things can get if we don't get to rate cuts this year? karissa: back to the point about the real rate being restrictive and causing the economy to slow. i think it's a real risk. the fed is very tuned into that. the last thing they want to do is go too far afield on fighting inflation so they fear the economy into recession. that's a real concern. there are a couple things i

atlanta fed president bostick projects one rate cut, later than expected.e had said it would be appropriate to cut rates twice beginning in the summer. more from bloomberg's executive editor for asian markets. is he out the cold? jay powell seems dovish. what is your take away with the fed? >> good morning. the comments have to be taken in the context of cuts. he may be talking about later in the year, slower pace, but they will cut if the dater allows it. we have a central bank willing to cut and people are not worried. they said maybe no cuts at all this year. the market seems happy to tolerate that. no big changes in the dot plots. the market is looking for interest rates. switch the focus to talk about jobs data. that gives the fed a caveat to move. lower rates on the horizon. tom: how are the markets interpreting the messages from the boe, ecb, s&p? is the take that doves are in control? paul: it feels like they fired the starting gun. it is the same mentality and noise traders are hearing. at the top of the show, people betting on short-term interest

there's a few on the fomc you of the same thoughts. >> i'm looking at bostick who signaling one cut. given what you're hearing from some economists saying do we really need easier financial conditions? you have to think was the fact he even said one rate cut is good happen this year is that potentially actually more significant the fact he is still saying we will have one. it's interesting we will get pce and then powell speaks in the markets cannot trade it? jonathan: it is fewer and fewer and that seems to be the direction of travel. that's the direction of travel over the last few months or so. do your point even without this equity market is doing better than good. lisa: at what point will bonds wake up to this idea of a fed that's accommodating for risk assets but might let inflation run hot? did you see this for 6000 at the end of this year because they could see mega caps up another 15%. i'm looking at all of this saying to myself at what point to people care about hotter inflation because it's not getting priced into the market with the exception of gold. >> this is the point

why would it cut it one headline with bostick? stefanie: last year, for instance, we were the only bank not calling for any rate cuts. we start of year for everybody pricing in seven, we had three. two weeks ago, we decided now they would be forecasting a year ahead, until march 2025, we stick with 3, 1 until the first quarter of next year, reason being that the fed is operating from such a strong backstop, they can afford to go every other into not want to be seen to close. so i don't think there needs to be much more to change that. it is very realistic because the fed is pulling the pivot. they need to start very soon and leaving the gap between june and the first quarter i think is too long. haslinda: valuations remain elevated, especially in the u.s. it will take rate cuts to jump this valuation. stefanie: well, we see no rate cuts but a rate hike cycle, to be lofty in the market going up. so, of course, more rate cuts could help, but the repricing "bloomberg daybreak: asia" -- but the repricing, again, i don't think has done

fed speakers bostick and go speed differ on rate cut expectations.sian president vladimir putin has for the first time said islamist militants carried out the deadly moscow attack, he still accuses ukraine of involvement. plus, boeing starts a search for its next ceo after a leadership shakeup as it seeks to reassure airlines and passengers that it's planes are safe. let's check in on the futures. modest losses around wall street. down about 3/10. currently, u.s. futures brining a little higher, pointing up by 2/10 of a percent. making up losses of yesterday as things stand. that's a futures picture stateside. in europe, you have fresh records yesterday for the context you are up on european stocks across the benchmark. 15% of the last 12 months. fresh records yesterday. european stocks are flat. ftse 100 pointing low. look to iron or in the minors, potentially on that story. iron ore prices are tumbling today. 7900 20 flag. let's flip the board and have a look across assets. we saw movement across the treasury curve. we are still awaiting these comm

we have comments from bostick coming in, and many major markets will be closed tomorrow. we have tokyo c.p.i., u.s. pce number, we're hearing from fed governor christopher waller saying there's no rush to cut rates. >> i see economic output and the labor market showing continued strength while progress in reducing inflation has slowed. because of these signs, i see no rush in taking the step of beginning to ease monetary policy. >> fed governor christopher waller laying out reasons why he doesn't see a cut. but that's what we're seeing across asia for now. paul? paul: a bit of a down day for the nikkei, not used to seeing that at the moment. some pressure on the yen. what's the level for intervention here? >> i think the line in the sand seems to be 152. that seems to be what market traders believe. but let's recap what we're seeing on the japanese currency. somehow after the b.o.j. hike for the first time in 17 year, sent the yen weaker. in the past two days has been a pretty wild ride. we're seeing how hawk coming in doveish, that sent a trigger to 152 on the dollar yen

bostick sees one rate cut. reserve governor safes the central bank must take a cautious approach. so not everybody is on the same page here. there are other wild card, consumer excess savings, gone. there are signs that spending is losing steam. look, fiscal spending is also an issue for fed policy and bond yields right now. the treasury is issuing a ton of bills in part to hold down yields but it is very expensive for taxpayers. charles, back to you. charles: gerri, thank you very, very much. now the title of my next guest's most recent note was we can have nice things. let's bring in macro policy perspectives founder and president, julia coronado. so after that fed meeting and presser, julia, the title of my nolt was, up in smoke, what the fed was doing behind closed doors and their credibility. feels like a lot of contradictions but you seem like you like it? >> yeah, i think that the, the fed weighed in with the vote of optimism in terms of the growth potential we're seeing, that you just touched on with st

i think you know, bostick had a great quote last week in kind of this fear of any incremental cut tos just a cause for additional reacceleration in certain pockets of this economy. and so what investors should really be questioning is, kind of this lingering is what's good for the economy, meaning continued above trend growth, bad for equities? and so far the earnings season behind us now was that no, not necessarily, that the cost discipline of u.s. corporations has really been a fact to earnings per share growth in 2024 that we just didn't see in 2023. the fear side of that continues to be some softening data around labor. in conjunction with that, you know, is it possible we wait too long to start shaving slowly, see the absorption of rate cuts into this economy and the data. charles: of course coming into all of this, jay powell vowed he would not be arthur burns. he would be volcker 2.0. if he cuts too early, and mess this is up, forget it. one thing you've been emphasizing, you say, hey, forget about these overweight bets on themes. instead focus, drill down on value. one name

we're down to bostick saying one rate cut. would it still applay there? >> yeah.o what the chart is showing is how the s&p 500 has done when the fed starts to cut-rates. >> right. >> so there is a fast cycle. the fed is cutting five or more times in a year that tends to be pad because they're panicking. they're probably fighting off a recession and usually doing a pretty poor job of it versus a slow cycle where they're cutting a few times because they can, because the economy is doing okay and they have the ability to move slow. so moving from seven rate cuts to three is actually a positive change for stocks. now if we only have one, which happened a few times in the '60s, that's when the fed makes a mistake and have to flip-flop, that is actually a worse scenario for stocks. the biggest risk is here not necessarily we'll get a recession over the short term but if the fed moves too soon to cut and they have to reverse course. now, our base case they will do a couple rates cuts and it will be okay. you ask me where the bigger risk is, if inflation stays sticky, the

and rafael bostick of the atlanta fed came out and said one, one rate cut this year. >> maybe -- i'm not uncomfortable with that prognostication. earlier this year, and i think the last time on the show, there were many people talking about six, and i said is i think on this show as being two then, and i'm still saying two. but if i had to have a bias, i would say one over three. >> right, right. liz: what assets have surprised you? >> i'm sorry? liz: what assets in the last, let's say, six months have surprised you? an obvious one might be the a.i.-related stocks, big tech, what else? >> some of those a.i. stocks, their earnings are actually validating. like, nvidia's earnings are validating some of its stock price. now, it's trade thing at a 30 pe and arguably was growing faster than that, so let's see how that continues on. look, i'm very bullish on the long-term viability of bitcoin. >> i was going to say, did that surprise you? >> that surprised he me, how much that's gone occupy. -- up. we're creating now a market that has more lieu quiddity, more transparency -- liquidity, and

we will hear from romaine bostick. what are you looking for? lisa: he will say i am ready to hear and listen. he will not try to say anything. no one will talk about cleanup on aisle two, because after december people were saying who would say this is premature. it is clear now it is a dovish pivot. jonathan: shares of apple down yesterday 4%, today higher .2%. the doj suing apple for violating antitrust rules. in re, what stood up -- what stood out to you in that report? annmarie: there are things they are alleging in terms of antitrust. rivals are not able to access the hardware or software that apple keeps closely guarded. for me it had to be they take issue that if you are an iphone user and message the introit user it is the green bubble versus the blue bubble and they say social stigma was part of it. there are a lot of individuals who are pushing back on this and saying is this too far in terms of calling out apple? lisa: what i found interesting is previous antitrust suits did not have a market action. all of those legal actions in euro

lisa: profile bostick talks about how he only wants one cut and he said we can be one and done for a. jonathan: we will see with that conversation heads. jenny johnson -- louk evermore. s&p 500 shaping up as follows come unchanged after another solid month of gains. this is bloomberg. ♪ the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo when i was your age, we never had anything like this. and yowhat? wifi?iness. wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g net

romaine bostick, and hunter writing this.use will allow the economy to accelerate in the presence level decline. why is torsten slok wrong in your opinion? constance: when you have a productivity surge you can have an economy that is strong while it moderates. our group has a forecast that we will have in hand for the fed the 2.1% on pce. they will have data that could allow them to cut and you have to ask question where should real rates be? was say they were to cut their 75 basis points this year. you go from restrictive to moderately restrictive. you still have restrictive rates within the economy. the financial conditions we look out on wall street are not the conditions the average consumer faces. they are dealing with higher interest rates on credit cards, auto loans, mortgages so high they are priced out of purchasing homes. if you on stocks financial conditions are easier but if you are younger, you have tight conditions. jonathan: equity markets all-time highs, credit conditions loose, is not not important? constance

that is bostick's view also. you promised we would do this carefully.ink toward later in the year, after the election, although it has nothing to do with the election, they are speeding up to every meeting. jonathan: you sound like a fed official there. one of the best. ellen zentner of morgan stanley on-the-job report coming out later. let's get you up to speed on stories elsewhere this morning. here is your bloomberg refueler dani burger. dani: china is in the process of raising $27 billion at the tried to counter u.s. technology curves. the fund is amassing a pool of capital from local governments and state enterprises. it would be china's largest chip fund today, used to counter a u.s. campaign to thwart the rise of chinese chips. shares of cosco are down in the premarket 4.1%. the company recorded gross margin that missed estimates. it only narrowly missed estimates but analysts at citi maintain their neutral outlook on the stock and said it is hard to see catalysts to drive it higher. netflix is keeping the push into sports, announcing it will liv