we got to ask the fed governor lael brainard in that in an interview an hour or so ago, and what she said was that it is part of a lot of other risks out there, including global weakness, trade tensions, and other economic issues that are concerning her ultimately, she said the fed is in a good place in terms of being on pause and hold. let's look at the retail sales numbers she was talking about. down 1.2%. biggest drop in nine years, estimate up 0.1% if you look at the details, department stores were lousy, gasoline stations were down, even internet retailers didn't do well, they were negative as well here is some commentary. some of the commentary is skeptical about data oxford says retail sales puts a chill on the u.s. economy. amherst said consumer weaker, data is fishy. couple other comments i want to share as well. citi, retail sales plunge reinforces fed pause and not just a pothole, it is a major roadblock. one more thing to tell you about from the brainard interview, she was dovish on the balance sheet. she would like to see it end later, wind down, and later this year i be

when you listen to governor brainard she said the fed means to guard against volatility.ery? does it mean guard against bear markets? what does volatility mean in this context so i think that the trouble with the fed and the trouble with its balance sheet is that it is set up to do something that was not in the minds of the founders of this institution, and what the governor failed to mention as well is the admittedly cosmetic fact that this institution is leveraged 100-1, that on a mark in september it would have been technically insolvent if that mattered and the treasury indemfies the fed against losses, but balance sheet is more than the sum total of this massive pile of securities it is also an expression of the way the fed does its business and the way it does its business is to run a fiat current we an eye on the stock market. >> i understand. one of her comments i agree with the balance sheet has always been a tool, it has, but scale, scale means so much. now, let get to the matters at hand, whether we're looking at switzerland, germany, denmark, netherlands, belg

run-offs don't stop until the middle of next year, lot thing loer than president mester or governor brainard is talking about. you would be inclined to give more weight to the president of the new york fed because us overseeing the markets group, the people actually doing the work to figure out balance sheet dynamics. >> what will be the most important data point that the fed watching to start to reconsider patience? >> i would assume it comes out the first friday of every month, average hourly earnings. they want to see a couple of things. they want to see continuing momentum in the economy, i.e. good gains in employment. they want to see the unemployment rate still below their estimate of the national rate and a pick up in cost pressures. but of the three, i think cost is going to be the important thing. powell is out of the guidance game. it doesn't mean they have changed their framework for monetary policy. >> we will leave it there. thank you vincent. >> still ahead, seven million americans are at least three months behind on their car payments. but is that reason to panic? we are talki

brainard is coming out continuing to be long term dovish f you're a long term investor, stay the coursewe could get a five to 6% pullback technically. that would give us the head and shoulders reversal pattern we're looking for. that would be time to add more capital. if you're a long term investor i would say stay the course. i want to mings, industrials are amazing. look at the s&p 500, 400 companies reported, 70% beat earnings. when you look at industrials, charles, 90% of industrials reported beat earnings. 70% on the top line. this is a broad-based recovery. it is a great stock market for investor to stay the course in. you can't let fear amongsters keep you on the side. charles: lindsey, stay the course? >> stay the course. charles: lindsey, robert, thank you very much. douglas holtz-eakin, american action forum to talk about the chinese trade talks. douglas, i read your work almost every morning. what do you see, a lot of people feeling conventional wisdom is that a deal is going to happen. how do you want it to look, how realistically can it look? >> i think we've gotten two pea

board governor brainard voted against these proposals noting that the fed's proposal would reduce high held by large banks about $70 billion. the fdic originally opposed the fed's leverage proposal as it would reduce bank capital by more than 120 billion. the fed is also looking at making stress testing more transparent which could undermine the purpose of the test and former fed chair fisher has called these regulatory efforts, quote, something i find extremely worse, quote, unquote. so, chairman powell, please explain. will easing big bank capital and liquidity requirements as the treasury department has proposed and your agency appears to be following through with not undermine safeguards that are carefully built up the last decade to protect the economy and which made the u.s. framework the gold standard that others around the world follow should we expect to see further industry consolidation if deregulating big banks is a top priority by the federal reserve? it was discussed in the senate banking committee yesterday how the fed has accelerated its merger reviews and appears to be

federal reserve governor brainard recently spoke about increasing diversity efforts at conference.ander right now even before search is how is the federal reserve trying to build a pipeline for more diverse candidates? when you meet with reserve bank leaderships how are you encouraging a focus on increasing director diversity? how do believe increasing diversity is a challenge? in your testimony he stated current economic conditions are healthy and the economic outlook favorable but noted over the , "uncertainty is elevated around several unresolved government policy issues." i won't put it as delicate as you have. president trumps policies are damaging. this is why you have had to pause rate hikes. this lack of an economic agenda that changes with the wind is presenting market volatility and incredible uncertainty. you said just yesterday that uncertainty is the enemy of business. that is why former federal reserve chair janet yellen says the president does not understand macroeconomic policy. if he did he would understand only a stable inclusive economic agenda will support economic e

lyle brainard last week in an interview said she thinks it ought to end this year and john williams thinks it ought to continue a little bit. i don't see in the minutes resolving that or how many members of the fed are on each side that have debate, but that's something that the fed is going to have to come to grips with, is how much more it's going to do, where it's going to stop, but we do know, tyler, to your original point, originally i want to say back when chairman powell was doing his nomination hearings in 2017, he talked about a number between 2.5 and $3 trillion for the end point of where the fed might stop now the discussion is very much in the 3 and maybe more favorably towards the 3.5 trillion range that means the fed plus or minus has an additional half a trillion to go which you might imagine is quite a bit less than adding another twillion to that so it's pretty close to being done say a year's worth of runoff. >> here's my issue though that i think is a little confusing. i'm a flow, not a stock person, so if they are going to be back in the market, starting at the end of t

board governor brainard voted against these proposals noting the fed's proposal would reduce high quality held by large banks about $70 billion. the fdic originally opposed the fed's leverage proposal as it would reduce bank capital by more than 120 billion. the fed is also looking at making stress testing more transparent which could undermine the purpose of the test and former fed chair fischer called these deregulatory efforts, quote, something i find extremely worrisome, quote, unquote. chairman powell please explain, will easing big bank capital and liquidity requirements as the treasury department has proposed and your agency appears to be following through with not undermine safeguards that are carefully built up the last decade to protect our economy and which made the u.s. framework the gold standard that others around the world follow? should we expect to see further industry consolidation if deregulating big banks is a top priority for the federal reserve? it was discussed in the senate banking committee yesterday how the fed has accelerated its merger reviews and appears to be

in a spaech last year governor brainard say the community reinvestment act was, quote, more important than ever. she stresses that branch and deposit atms remain an important way banks engage with the community. you also highlighted the importance of en dporsing the cra and other laws that help ensure people have adequate access to financial services wherever they live. can we get your commitment to build consensus among the fed governors before moving forward with proposals to change implementation of the community reinvestment act? >> oh, yes. >> i think it's important you do everything in your power to try to achieve a unanimous vote on this issue should the fed decide to move forward. many of us find this an incredible important part of our law and increasingly diminishing reality of financial institutions that somehow think they don't really have to fully engage and implement the law and ultimately still get away with it. i think there has to be a strong message that that's not the case. i hope you'll be able to deliver that message. >> we are unified in our commitment to the mis