jonathan: governor brainard might be the most patient official.ke a prison lord -- president bullard. if i'm assessing the flatter curve through next year, and i've got to get a flatter curve, something big needs to be happening at the front end. that is a hawkish move from the federal reserve, shortly. tom: very interesting. we will have ira jersey on this week to talk about the fixed income space. right now, this really dovetails into damian sassower adding value a few hours ago. david wilson considers china. dave: and specifically, the weight that chinese stocks of all kinds have and the msci emerging markets index. we know the story of the past month and the past six months is how chinese companies listed in the u.s. have taken a tumble. you've got the nasdaq open dragon china index, one benchmark for that group, down 25% for the year. you had a spill over into stocks traded on the mainland and also in hong kong. the msci china index is down 12%. put that together with the rest of the emerging markets in msci's benchmark gauge, and basically y

james: i think governor brainard right now.have not had an announcement yet on that new appointment. it would be interesting if powell were reappointed in the next few months. we would see a slight shift because the dogs were not nipping on the heel so much, but i think now the language from the core of the committee of the governors in washington is clear that they are not rushing. i think it would be sensible to reduce the mortgage purchases as soon as possible, but that is not a signal they want to send out. we are talking about tapering in q4 at this point, and it is not such a cosmic big deal. there is still many quarters away from the actual height. lisa: do you agree that this is one of the tightest labor markets? james: i think labor supply is very tight in the short run so the labor market is tight. my age, i think may be. i think the late 1990's had a tighter market than this. i would not say that 2005-2006 was tighter than this, but we have not had an extremely tight market since before that. the late 1990's was some

does lael brainard become one of the big three? jonathan: that is why the speech yesterday, it was quite interesting to see him break with the core of the fed. tom: lisa, you are looking at the fed like it is an episode of "bridgerton." jonathan: lisa, can you say this is like an episode of "bridgerton?" lisa: i don't know what you have been watching, tom. this is not like an episode of upward bridger -- of "bridgerton" at all. jonathan: equities up 0.4%. i don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing, tom. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the surge in covid cases is increasing pressure on u.s. drug regulators to fully approve the pfizer coronavirus vaccine. it was the first one to apply for full licensure in the country. approval could help the biden adminstration ramp back up its immunization drive and reassure holdouts that the shots are safe. a key senate republican has tested positive for coronavirus. that could delay the democratic plans to pass the infrastructure bi

lael brainard said was i am fine with the fed's tapering schedule at the moment.hink we still need to be loose, but if we did get an asset bubble, i might be quicker than jay powell to use regulatory tools. you can see the fed balance sheet is going up at the same pace as the s&p 500. is it because or is it affect -- is it cause or is it affect? we don't know. those of the kind of questions the white house team who are going to recommend a fed chair to the president will be deciding. other things happening in the economy this weekend, we just got the ism number. take a look at what happened in china overnight. same story. they also got their services number, and it also drops a little bit. maybe that is what is going to happen in the united states. we go up to a peak and then sort of level off. this goes back to the whole engineer velti -- the whole anthony fauci thing. do people start getting nervous about the virus and then stop buying or pull back a little bit? that we will see at the data go on for a little bit longer. this week's big data, the jobs report fri

viktor: well, so powell and brainard represent the more dovish end of the core of the fomc. the shape of the fomc in 2022 is going to be on balance more hawkish because of new voting members. so, the choice of who is at the head, whether it is brainard or powell, is i don't think has a major impact. brainard would arguably be even more dovish than powell, but really they are very close to each other with respect to monetary policy. anna: thank you very much. stay with us. thanks for speaking to us here on the european market open. more in just a moment. coming up, the european union's former brexit negotiator throws his hat into the ring to take on france's top job. we will get the perspective from paris a little bit later on in the program. central banks face the carbon conundrum. we will explore the recent comments on climate change and how they plan to help tackle the biggest challenge of our time. those are some of the things coming up on the program. up next, president biden vows to hunt down those behind the cobble attacks -- couple attacks -- kabul attacks. this is bl

rishaad: and also that lael brainard will be the deputy to jay powell. yvonne: that too.re to come in the next hour of bloomberg markets. ♪ ♪ >> 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai, welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haslinda amin. rishaad: in rishaad salamat in hong kong. let's have a look at the headlines. president biden vowing to hunt down those responsible for the explosions at kabul airport. 13 u.s. servicemen and 60 afghans were killed. haslinda: it is taper time. as investors await jay powell's speech at the jackson hole symposium. rishaad: and australian retailer wesfarmers reporting bumper earnings. we will speak to their manager about the windfall for shareholders. haslinda: investors are waiting to see some kind of signal, wherein the tapering might happen. we have fed officials divided on when that should be. the msci asia pacific index is up, getting a lift from asia tech, currently up one point 3% and reversing the losses set for the best week. the bloomberg dollar index is steady. yields rising. the attacks in kabul prompting joe biden to say we w

brainard is also a contender for the top spot.nt biden is not expected to weigh in until later in the year, but power maintains support inside the administration and also from treasury secretary janet yellen. french president emmanuel macron has urged ireland to join a global deal on establishing a minimum corporate tax rate during his first official visit to the country. ireland's economic model has been built on lower rates to attract multinational firms, and it has so far refused to sign their preliminary accord struck in july. the agreement calls for a minimum rate of 15%, while ireland's corporate tax rate is currently 12.5%. . india has lifted a ban on boeing 's beleaguered 737 max just, leaving china as the last leading aviator market yet to permit the planes to resume flying. indian aviation officials say the decision came after there were no new negative reports on the jet. 17 other global regulators allowed flights to resume beginning last year. and staying with india, the country recorded more than 46,000 new covid-19 c

vice chair rich clarida, if he takes the same line of governor brainard, i think we can look through it all to september. if he takes a similar line to governor waller, we've got a very interesting set up going into payrolls friday. tom: i would call that less than likely, but we will see. we will have full coverage of that, particularly bloomberg economics. the overlay here, and at least the analysis is all of this angst is about the new pandemic. lisa: the idea that the delta variant is gaining steam, creating new shutdowns in certain places, particularly in china, were you get the likes of nomura downgrading economic expectations for china. how much our ultra low yield signaling that the federal reserve is correct in its assessment and caution of tapering these bond purchases, and how much is it a consequence of the fed signaling it is not going to move any time soon that these distortions will continue? that is a huge difference, right? tom: no question about it. i want to get to our esteemed guest, our interview of the day on the equity markets. let's look at the data quickly, a

i don't know many people who would bat an eyelid if chairman powell became chair brainard.ke change at this point the cycle is important. this is a cycle so finely balanced that opinions are miles away from each other right now in this market. to make the change at the top of the central bank, that's a big issue. lisa: the indication would be tighter financial regulation, tighter oversight of the banks. that seems to be what lael brainard distinguishes herself from chair powell, and that is the main distinguishing feature senator one was talking about. is senator warren indicative of the mainstream democratic view? i don't know how much she is to parting from president biden. jon: in addition, do you want to spend your political capital trying to get someone else nominated through the senate? over financial regulation? is that a hub winner for the electorate --the financial regulation? lisa: i will not find personally but most analysts expect chair powell will remain chair powell next year in the year after that. the uncertainty i wonder what kind of premium you place on th

is they say, hey, you can't move away from the us dollar and that same way. christie. lal brainard, the governor in question went on to say that a digital dollar could also help people without a bank without bank account to get government aid, such as crow virus pandemic relief payment. but how is that any different than what currently exists in the crypto market, which is often looking at people who are on back? well, there really isn't any difference except for the fact that on one side, using anything like tether or u. s. b, s or u. s. d c coin or even makers. dow, that's actually controlled by the coalition and the creators who actually issue it versus this one, the us dollar that's issued by the fed. obviously that will be controlled by the fed and that's what they want because that's literally the only difference they don't like sharing their power. they don't like another organization having the authority to issue something like a monetary instrument. so this, this point of the bill is actually quite disturbing because it states that the federal reserve will have be explicit auth

meanwhile, praising leo brainard. how much does this potentially way into the debate for his reappointment? kathleen: we know that many liberal democrats, the progressives on that side of the aisle are saying that they do not want a republican man heading the fed. he has done a great job but let's get a woman. let's get a woman of color. elizabeth warren criticizing jay powell for not being tough enough on banks. she counters with leo brainard, governor at the fed who has been much more adamant about saying we have to be the cop on the beat for making sure banks don't get us in trouble again. take on too much risk, etc. jay powell's term is up in february. people think he might even be making it this fall and letting us know which direction he's heading. there's a lot of people on jay powell's side as well. senator warren has been pounding the table hard on this one. haidi: kathleen hays p had let's get more on the markets with our asia mliv editor, garfield reynolds. we are seeing sideways trading at the moment. did

the alternative, powell is clearly less woke than his employment mandate understanding then lael brainard a second term for powell? powell has to corral the three schools of thought when it comes to taper. here is the dollar. it belies something which i think is much wider, which was the rally last week. bank of america said that rally in the dollar was driven by growth woes. peak growth. bank of america says the dollar rally was driven by the week asian sentiment, deteriorating in china. let me show you stocks. he reprieved in china, a bounceback in china. it is just the beginning of a floor. you have to be judicious in terms of where you put your money. asian stocks up 1.1%. my favorite line is when it comes to stocks, the analysts have never been as wide in their view of whether we are 1000 points up or down on equities in 10 years. that is the breadth of the range at morgan stanley. 70% downside, 8% upside. the dollar rose. let's roll it over, have a look at oil. stopped in its tracks. it had a turgid run down the past couple weeks. you are seeing a pause for breath on brent. if opec-

friday, this coming friday, is a little bit more important than it would be for the likes of governor brainard. john: the question -- lisa: the question just is, and you have repeated this again and again, what is the market response? if we get a strong jobs number, is that positive or negative her bonds, even the fact that a sooner hike, a sooner taper might crimp growth in the long run? jonathan: no idea is the answer to that. that is a moving target going into payrolls friday. our current meeting estimate, down north of 900 k. tom: after what we saw may 7, i don't look at any of these surveys with any kind of -- what is the standard error after what we went through may 7? jonathan: let's talk about a range. anywhere from 350 north of a million? tom: we are going to cover it, that's what i know. jonathan: full coverage coming up this friday on bloomberg tv. equities up 16 points. tom: no choice. this is a tang show. jonathan: we both know that you don't start your day with orange juice. from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: the surgeon

jonathan: who do you think we get an upside surprise from, governor brainard or governor waller? tom: i think it will get derailed by the centrists at the fed and by the politics of the moment, and the politics is about the primary elections of 2022. as you saw with manchin and powell today, it is all a political soup. jonathan: let's start with some price action. your equity market on the s&p 500 positive 0.05%. as i said, we come into friday at a record high. in the bond market, one point 2566% on tens. yields are high by three basis points -- 1.2566% on tens. yields are high by three basis points. lisa: we are talking about that 1.2 6% yield almost, and really i wonder how much this jobs report is going to inform that, especially after fed vice chair rich clarida came out and said it would just take a couple of meetings to really get a sense of fact that they could taper sooner. 8:30 a.m., this payrolls report. we have not been talking about income and salaries and how much we may actually start to see wages rise on a wholesale level. we have talked about labor force participa

if he had been replaced by lael brainard, who perhaps would have been an aggressive regulator, that mightbeen a good story for the banks and financial institutions. if it is powell, at the margin, that is not a bad story for banks. guy: greg, always a pleasure. thank you very much, indeed. coming up, we saw the housing data at the top of the hour. sales of previously owned u.s. homes picking up in july. could a taper affect that? where are the bottlenecks in the housing market? we're going to speak to the ceo of one of the biggest mortgage providers in the united states. sanjiv das, ceo of caliber home loans, joining us next. ♪ ritika: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm ritika gupta. coming up, randy weingarten, the american federation of teachers president. that is at 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. the fda has given full approval to the coronavirus vaccine developed by pfizer and biontech. it will now be marketed to the prevention of covid and people 60 and over. it may open the door to more vaccine mandates

what about the notion lael brainard would be the vice chair and manage regulations, i'm bringing thisuse i think the fed has too much on their plate and feels that they have monetary policy and all other policies and they regulate a lot, they have to be responsibilities and this may be a reason they haven't been able to successfully do a dual mandate. >> they do it too much on the plate and whether they should have that much power this is not really a body that is by the people and is basically overseen by congress which is a very political animal as we all know and to ask the fed to do more things in a highly controversial political areas is asking for trouble. charles: what about the digital currency i read a piece about you yesterday and ironically you agree that the fed is moving too slow on a digital currency, what is at stake. >> technology is moving ahead of the central banks in terms of the digital currencies, there definitely catching on people want to be able to use things like venmo to clear transactions instantly. in the fed has to get with the spirit of the times and i th

, i really want to go to the voice and place of esther george in a washington fixated by powell, brainardtheory. it is different outing kansas city, isn't it? michael: this is one of those times when the fed bank presidenta add a lot because they are on the -- fed bank presidents can add a lot because they are on the ground in their district. they can see the course of the economy through the disease, and whether or not inflation is going to be a major issue. if esther george, who has always been an inflation hawk, isn't particularly concerned, then there's probably not a lot of concern out in the kansas city district. tom: the inflation us to -- the inflationistas are in retreat, but define a hawk right now. i don't think we know, do we? michael: it is angels dancing on the head of a pin. tom: that was almost the name of the show. [laughter] michael: a hawk is someone who wants the paper sooner. right now we are talking december, november, so if you're talking about a september announcement, it doesn't make that much difference. they are all kind of in the same boat at this point. there'

like tapering or a needed process before he leaves, and whether he gets reappointed or whether it's brainard, he should start this which means he has two chances either the september meeting or the november 3rd meeting. he's got to implement it in one of those two meetings. liz: jason, before we go, i'm looking at some exchange traded funds and the ones that are really gaining, today one of the most actively-traded ones is nail. that's the home builders, it's also the suppliers to the home builders. some pretty significant volume on that one right now, it is moving higher by 2%. what's your best guess on the home builders themselves and i know you're not a stock analyst but they're still huge demand, is there not? >> well there is huge demand. it's pent-up, and they've got to deliver. we have a housing shortage in this country, right now, and one thing i'll know is if you look deeper in the data while housing starts are down 7%, what was up? building permits. permits were up 2.6%, so there's a paradox in the numbers there we should be mindful of. there's going to be a lot of activity for the

buy mbs when the housing market is superhot the fed will work with legislation, especially with brainard versus higher rates >> they always go into these crises saying bond purchases are meant to support the economy and ease financial conditions but they try to exit going no, no, don't worry about the bonds, that's not related okay, but i don't really -- tightening financial conditions are tightening conditions. one final quick thing i want to sneak in here. there's a lot of speculation over whether it will be a non-event. i don't pretend to know the real mechanics of what's going on there. but talk to me about the time line and what you think the fed really is signaling at this point. >> look, i think what chair powell is dealing with now is increasingly fractious fed, so you're hearing from bullard, rosen green, a number of folks from kaplan this morning and all of it is a little bit of hey, look, this doesn't make as much sense as it used to, so i don't think chair powell is going to get in front of a much broader audience and say anything supersubstantive because ultimately he's got

throwing him under the bus >> a lot of headlines yesterday about progressives who would prefer to see brainard in the chair. at this point, he's clearly not going to take any kind of victory lap. >> he doesn't do that. he's the least showman oriented fed chief. even janet yellen said this morning what a benchmark, what a gold standard there. i think jay has done a remarkable job and yet there's people that keep criticizing him. i think he's going to turn out very right once we get everybody vaccinated or everybody gets sick gotlieb says there's no way out. you'll either get vaccinated or get sick what are you, you laughing at? >> you either get vaccinated or you get sick >> he says that every time >> it's funny to hear it the >> he says it every day. >> he does your point about his twist last night he posted a bunch of charts arkansas, louisiana, nevada. clear evidence he saysthat the surge is slowing now the problem is hospitalizations just don't disappear when infections start to decline >> no. but look, we're so much obviously better than handling it, the medical community learned a great d

brainard has been very outspoken and i'd say she's campaigning for the top job and she fits with presidenthis fiscal policy, at the size that we see in the newspapers, and if there were to be a change in direction at the leadership level of the federal reserve, that's where i think we run into a real inflationary problem. neil: interesting. so, if powell is bypassed for re uping his job at the fed, how would the markets respond to that? >> you know, inflation hits all areas, including asset classes, so the market might look like might really like it from a nominal perspective but your dollars might actually mean less there might be less worth what they were a year ago, two years ago, 10 years ago, 100 years ago , so while the indices would go higher and it might look like a continuation of the bull market, those dollars might not quite mean to the average investor what they did. neil: you know, you just quietly very calmly dropped a little bombshell there on the virus and the situation there. you don't think i'm not putting words into the mouth, necessarily out of the woods here. what's yo

the tendency to ease financial regulations senator warren has publicly praised fed governor lael brainard line is jay powell gets the job if he wants it, right? the question is, would he not want it actually >> i can't imagine that he would not want it or that he would turn it down i am curious what the market's reaction would be if he didn't get appointed to another term? >> it's like a hedge fund manager in the midst of a giant trade and he says bye-bye. and he hands it over. >> i wonder about the calculus of removing some of the stimulus given his uncertain future and what he thinks about his role in that whole process that's to me fair. the guy has done a phenomenal job. if you are an investor, why not let him finish what he started in terms of legacy fed mandates, that makes sense to me i think the market's anticipating that. >> i just can't imagine. >> that's my point as well, if he would want to make a significant move in policy knowing his own future is somewhat uncertain it's a bizarre time to be talking about changing fed policy when he doesn't know what his future is. >> why ma