they can do it at a slower pace and that is what brainard went on to say, that the fed can raise ratest a slower pace and once again in january, even at a 25 basis point move. that will be the important thing. are they saying more evidence that inflation is slowing down? are they seeing more evidence that the economy is slowing down and in which case, they can start talking about the pivot to ending their rate increases but right now, her message is the same as chris waller's in australia. kriti: put this in perspective. she used the word data dependent. over the weekend, goldman sachs said they are forecasting this massive deceleration in inflation in 2023 but where does that leave sticky wages and prices? did the vice chair comment on that? >> we don't know. the feeling that she has and other people at the fed has is that there may not have been a dynamic change in terms of sticky wages but waits growth -- wage growth is slowing down in price growth is going down. is a slow enough to bring you back to the 2% target and that will take a lot of data to show over a period of time. mary

brainard says has sounded to give him a more dovish.oint about the unity around the thanksgiving table, are you surprised at how the senior team at the fed may be speaking slightly differently. julia: i am not. if we think about chair powell and vice chair brainard have been in the trenches together through a variety of crises for a number of years. and yes i think they kind of way to the risk a bit differently but i think some of the financial instability, some of the incredible volatility we are seeing in global markets between the september and november fomc meetings, i think both of them are concerned about that. they are the keeper of the global reserve currency. chair powell has always been about looking financial markets is the leading signals of their policy. so i think he was concerned. he as the chair. the vice chairs job is to go out and message things that the chair cannot. he is creating the consensus. he doesn't want to be opining one way or the other. i think that good cop bad cop was an intentional coordinated communicat

we seem to have some positive catalysts out there, whether it is the fed's lael brainard saying that we need to consider smaller rate hikes or that the climate in the u.k. is warmer as well and what it means for the energy crisis. the trio of catalysts out of china as well. does this make your range and the estimates in your forecast ambitious at this point? grace: this is welcomed good news. as you mentioned, the key one is the cpi print that the markets got hold of and we are in for a phase of disinflation that the market is clearly welcoming. tom: we are in a phase of disinflation now? grace: yes, that will not be linear or fast, but we head into that point now where inflation over the next six months should fall meaningfully led by the u.s. in terms of the developed world. we also have to put that in the context of not getting overly optimistic. we were expecting inflation to fall and i think it will continue to do that, but there are still other hurdles out there we need to get through one we think about medium-term inflation expectations and broader financial conditions. if we

and brainard still stressing more work needs to be done to bring down inflation, but how much more work? we'll get a window tomorrow with the release of the october producer price index. estimates indicate core prices at the manufacturing level moved four-tenths of a higher month over month and year-over-year expected to move 7.2%, matching september's year-over-year number. that's barely an improvement if you want to talk about bringing inflation down. 10-year yield moving higher, because again we're not seeing inflation come down enough. it's at -- up 5.1 basis points, butman saks' economic team -- goldman sachs' economic team claiming, don't worry, inflation will drop next year. so you know what's also coming down? oil prices. we're in the aftera market right now, down about 4% over the weekend after a 9-month occupation, russian troops retreated from kerr ohioan in the south -- kherson in the southeastern region of ukraine. right now we've got crude at 85 and change per barrel, so how will these the developments color investors' mood as we kick off the second full week of november?

we heard lael brainard's comments. nikkei futures up by about .2%. shery: take a look at how u.s. futures are trading. we are seeing a little bit of upside. we have seen swings between gains and losses throughout the new york session. lael brainard's comments helped improve sentiment a little but this comes off of kryst for waller's akos -- christopher waller's hawkish comments. extending the rally for a third day given geopolitical tensions have been eased between president biden and xi jinping. crude prices still under pressure. around the $85 a barrel level. haidi: you and i here in singapore on day one of the bloomberg news economy forum. this was really an event to hopefully provide solutions for some of the most pressing challenges the modern world faces. we feel the list gets longer. when we were here during the very first couple of forums talking about the pre-pandemic challenges. now post-pandemic we are still dealing with inflation, geopolitical tensions. on that last point, we are hearing from two very import and speakers. former secretary of state henry kissinger and t

lael brainard making us wonder how faster a pace the rates will be rising in the united states. i want to focus in on china. we are optimistic, not only about the reopening of the chinese economy post-covid, but also about the property sector. the government looking to support of thorn in the side of the economy. this is an etf that tracks the big internet players in china. two of those managed to power on high after three days. that is a 17% run-up in this particular index overall. ed: we also have to digest a lot of news. one of the biggest headlines. amazon cutting 10,000 staff as soon as this week. the stock bouncing around all over the place. closing 2.3% down. netflix a real outperformer. hedge fund taking a sizable position. a stock that has had momentum of late. etsy, one of the best performers on the s&p 500 getting some love from investors. nike closing down 1.6%. news that it's going its own way into the metaverse and announcing a virtual platform to buy virtual sneakers. never thought i would be saying that on a monday. caroline: i think about virtual sneakers every

vice chair brainard coming up a little later, sitting down with peggy collins in d.c. eastern time. foreign exchange, major moves last week across a couple currency pairs. euro one of them, euro-dollar biggest weekend two years. dollar-yen though, a 5% move lower, the biggest weekly move going back to october 2008. lisa: the widow maker trade trying to shore up what is going on in japan. we have seen that repeatedly. how much of a pause is this and how much more sustainable in terms of dollar weakness? amazon's jeff bezos coming out with a new philanthropic push, talking about giving away the bulk of his money over his tenure. this comes after could a schism about not being overly philanthropic. he has 124 billion dollars of net worth. those shares are down about 43% over the past year. they are poised for possibly the worst yearly loss went back to 2008 and possibly the 2000 that is part of the backdrop. walmart and home depot, most of the earnings have come through from the s&p. walmart and home depot up tomorrow before the opening bell. walmart shares have outperfor

the 50 basis points idea for december 14, not only as jeep i will set it yesterday, we had lael brainard saying it and other members have endorse that as well. they want to slow the process even though 50 basis points is a lot and we want to look around and see what's happening to the economy. there was a clue in the ppi. they look at wholesalers and retailers. the way they get there price levels is to look at their profit margins. i did it chart that shows walmart and the walmart profit margin, even though they had a reasonably good quarter, the net margin was negative and the ppi for trade services which is what they call it is also negative so it shows some margin compression and if that continues, you will see companies not able to raise prices with margin trouble but you will all see price increases slow down. jon: that's helpful context and you help us with our transitions on this tuesday because we will continue the conversation on the retail front with walmart results so thank you so much as well as home depot. both stocks are moving higher after better than expected results and

markets bounce being back from earlier losses today after fed vice chair layle brainard said we could fed slowdown on rate hikes the dow is trading up almost 200 points let's bring back our panel carol roth and jonathan hoenig good to see you both again. carol let's start with you. your reaction to the markets and still not sure i agree with the fed commentary even though that's the fed, but you know having said that, you're thoughts? >> yeah, i think it's a very generous interpretation of what brainard and some of the other fed folks have been saying. they are talking about the slowing of the pace but they are not necessarily talking about the terminal rate going down. that could still end up in a higher terminal rate. it's kind of like thanksgiving dinner, go oh, well i'm just eating appetizers instead of dinner and then you end up consuming more calories and i kind of think it's the same thing here and then we're in a space where good economic news is bad for the fed and bad for the markets. we have retail sales later this week, you know, something the consumers holding up, califor

the other thing you're watching is lyle brainard. they are pushing back on the cpi markets. we ahead of our skis in terms of the fed? >> it is one month of data. we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. we have to acknowledge the significance of the data. it's the first time we've seen market confirmation of lots of data. we could rattle off different pipeline data that was telling us cpi could be coming down a. we have had the confirmation. the downside surprise is backed up by lots of other data. we are pricing in more significantly the prospect of this being peak. guy: where does that leave the dollar? >> it leaves it volatile. the price action is there. we are asking ourselves have we seen peak inflation? i'm not so sure about rates. the dollar has weakened by 7.5%. you are going to have to have some considerable changes in the dynamic. there is a plausible argument to be made that we are past peak dollar. that looks like it's very plausible. alix: what do you buy in that scenario? >> in the fx space, the go to trade has formed best has been dollar-yen. you have had $65 bill

i can cite charles evans, lael brainard, who said it will be time soon. are we there yet?ke saying you go to your doctor and he gives you 10 pills to take and you stop taking them after pill number seven and you relapse a few days later. it is not yet time for us to change course on our monetary policy. we have endured a ton of pain getting to this point. the housing market is under duress. durable goods sales are under duress. we have not gotten the job done. to take the foot off the break right now and not finish the job is the worst mistake the fed,. -- the fed could make. >> what happens if they back off too early? >> the biggest concern is you on anchor inflation expectations. the american public believes the fed is going to get the job done. if we take the foot off the brake, inflation starts to flare back up and the fed will have lost credibility. if the fed loses credibility, then the amount by which we will need to raise rates will be a much bigger bill to pay. we should not put ourselves in a position to pay that bill. we should get the job done now. >> in our co

and is it >> when you get a ppi this cool and people will say a second ppi is going to make it so brainard's's right, can you really wait can we wait? >> well, the other part of it is the 10-year is where it is how about the fact that the street, there's no way you can breakthrough, david. how about if the street is incorrect and there's just a lot of money looking for a few stocks i want to know why we don't have chain link fence what is the other one? >> i don't know. i'm trying to figure out what serum. it was only worth 65 million but hey. >> how much was wage in the end? >> 1.8 >> why not put the powerball bug up there's still money left lietget it started it's more hon oeft it's honest. it's not defi. suddenly people are staying, that does lend some appeal except for the people who come on and they're angry and say you're stupid. they'll call me. they'll call me. they'll say, listen, you're really stupid. solana >> i don't know anything about it hair salona. >> i know we are having a rally with the nasdaq up 2.4%. we're seven minutes into trading. amazon one of the leaders. we talked a

lael brainard talking explicitly about pulling back to a smaller rate hike. chris waller, the fed board governor. one of the leading honks jumping on the bandwagon. speed up the taper. that is chris wallace. what you say? he is getting more comfortable with a 50 basis point rate hike at the december meeting. he does need to see more data and there is going to be another inflation report before we actually see that meeting resolved. he says rate hikes are going to continue into 2023. retail sales came in at a surprisingly strong side. the strongest since february. it was not just because the part is of everything got higher and that made the dollar value of retail sales rise. car sales went up paired all kinds of sales went up. bloomberg economics says it is a clear sign the rate hike could stay on a clear path. it is not a pause. it is a slower pace. i have to say the interview with the wall street journal, president of the kansas city fed think there is a risk of inflation getting entrenched and she says given the years she has had at the fed looking at the

continuing for the tech sector we are still keeping a close eye on all of the fed comments coming out brainard insinuating they have to hike. >> that was interesting to see that u.s. stocks moved lower despite the dovish comments. that is it for "street signs." coverage continues tomorrow. i'm julianna telumatba >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. to help keep you both effortlessly comfortable. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. only for a limited time. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the

on the economy and markets issues federal reserve policymakers james bullard john williams lael brainarding the fact we need more rate hikes that rate hikes are on the way, the comments ahead of jay powell's speech tomorrow will speak on about economy labor market tomorrow having the final federal reserve meeting of the year in two weeks december 13, 14 give your take on fed, how that may change, the -- the macrostory and narcotics in 2023. >> well, i think that we protest well know a rate hike is coming in december futures market is still indicating more likely to be half a point, instead of 3 is a/4 of a point going into '23 i believe going to pause and i believe pause sooner rather than later there is no question at this point the inflation, levels have started to come down. i don't think that is because of fed activity certainly don't think it is because of biden policy or administration activity, it is because of the natural fact supply chain started to reopen there is much more production capacity output taking place in the u.s., however, the fed right now is going to start getting

lael brainard says they are likely to increase 50 basis points at next meeting >> i think the marketngs in for that i think 50 will be well received i think as we move forward, let's see how the retail numbers look as we get deeper into retail results here. that could help the market and it could hinder it somewhat. we think overall, investors are saying they want to be back in cyclicals over defensive they look to greater diversification in portfolios toward next year with the likelihood we might skirt a recession. >> i don't know about you. walmart is more revealing on cpi and inflation trends than the report we get. it is more forward looking what are you expecting from doug mcmillan if he says inflation is hitting the consumer, how will investors respond? >> we have to say this first of all, i refer to the analysts on walmart rather than me i manage money for the firm. they don't want me talking specifically what i can tell you, related to stocks within this sector, you've got to expect disan appoi disappointment could be interpreted for the market or sector although it may be a

the global markets yesterday and then you've got federal reserve policymakers james bullard, lyle brainardll expecting more rate hikes and the final fed meeting to have year in two weeks. dennis, why this big rally in stocks in the month of november if we continue to hear the fed and its officials tell us, hold on, don't expect the fed to be nearing an end to rate hikes so soon but that's really what triggered the rally in stocks in november, right? >> not a question. and let's be blunt. i've been wrong for the past six weeks of the direction of stock prices. people have been anticipating the fed to become far more moderate in monetary policies and there is the possibility after the turn of the year that we will see a change in the fed itself because the voting membership changes. we will lose two and pick up two doves from the federal reserve presidents and gives you expectation that the federal reserve might be accommodative after the turn of the year but i have my doubts substancively. one of things i've learneed in the 45 years of being in the market, when the fed changes policy and be

into any rally, what then would be the next trigger is the next major piece of inflation data lael brainard came out today, probably second only to powell himself, kind of saying, hey, the pace of rate hikes is going to slow down. >> near term, the pain trade is higher you have some positive se seasonals, and i think once you get past thanksgiving in the united states, that you get to that early december period where you can get the ism. you're going to get the pci inflation number, which the fed focuses on more closely, and then the jobs number, so i think we have this pocket of time where people are chasing performance, and i think markets probably push a bit higher, but then post-thanksgiving, a lot of big data points. if one or two swings the wrong way -- >> though what if they swing the right way? >> they could. and then, you know, the idea there is that pushes out maybe on you quickly the economy slows. we are focussed even more so on the job market than even the pci or the pce numbers here. we have the idea that jobs will stay decent. there's still over 10 million job option to the a

there is the sign, lael brainard talking about having to be careful about what you are doing, that is what they are going to do, but then he went on to say that we have to keep hiking rates until we get sufficiently restrictive. let's listen to what else he said that make it clear -- that made it clear that thinking about a positive's not going to happen anytime soon. >> it is very premature to be thinking about pausing. when people hear lags, it is very premature in my view to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. we have a ways to go. our policy, we need ongoing rate hikes to get to that level. kathleen: could he have been any clearer? premature to talk about a pause. a ways to go. he said you've got a hot, overheated labor market, high inflation, more rate hikes are needed. there's probably going to be a higher terminal rate and they don't even know for sure where they are going to stop. that's what it sounds like. haidi: speaking of premature, it was astounding that we continue to see this wave of optimism across chinese assets even though we have heard officials

you've got brainard yesterday saying it is appropriate to soon slow the rate of hikes, but we still have additional work to do. that additional work showing up on the u.s. 10 year yield, up about two basis points. pressure on the front end of the curve yesterday as well. the bloomberg dollar spot takes a breather. little changed. nymex crude continuing the decline. opec cut their outlook. it's part of china possibly reopening. demand concerns outweighing supply tightness. bitcoin resuming its climb up 1.8%. the binance founder has been tweeting a lot, sort of posing as the savior, putting bitcoin into a better position, still below $17,000. let's get to geopolitics. i mentioned that presidents biden and xi had a three hour meeting on the sidelines of the g summit in indonesia. let's go to bali and talk to stephen engle. you are a lucky man there in bali. expectations were low for this, weren't there? stephen: this is a significant steppingstone if you will in the recovery of relations between china and the united states. white house likes to talk about putting a floor on deterioration of

yet fed vice chair brainard saying earlier may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. probably helping the market today. one of the biggest business headlines happening now, amazon reportedly planning to lay off 10,000 employees a "new york times" report it's cuts largest in amazon the history and still represents less than 1% of the global workforce. still matters a lot to each of those 10,000 people. a rep from amazon did not respond our request for comment. talk about that laser on in the house. >>> rally hirnges on earnings reports and the largest retailers. stephanie link from hypetower advisors and cnbc contributor. stephanie, great to speak with you. i want to start with -- >> nice to see you. >> start with inflation. we know that powered the market into the final trading days into a strong end of the week last week get yore reading on inflation. aye tomorrow, given fed speak we're getting so far walk me through the notion, "don't fight the fed " seems like everybody's been fighting the fed a little bit? >> yeah. yeah it's really great to see you back wel

yields are climbing a little bit ahead of a big discussion with lloyd brainard this morning. reasserting a little bit of strength after huge bout of weakening heading into the end of the week. it's the biggest two days of weakening going back to 2008. as we wait for comments from president biden after the readout from his meeting with president xi parsing through the wreckage of the past couple of decades. particular over the past couple of years in terms of the money flooding into more speculative investments. from your perspective, the ftx saga, how much does that represent something bigger you are seeing happening throughout wall street where executives are starting to see things wash of morecambes lately? onali: venture capitalists were flowing money into companies and you would think that kind of behavior would and the last couple of years after risa major hiccups in the venture capital world but that is not been the case. crypto has not operated as a standalone industry away from the traditional capital markets. ontario teachers were among the types investors that were

we have had the governors come out and have been extremely hawkish -- >> brainard was not hawkish -- >> yeah. and one or two last week did the same thing, but you can undo that with powell i don't think you will so i do believe the market will continue to market to year end. >> amy, what about you i know what weiss was doing, by the way. i know what he was doing >> being right as usual. >> oh, boy >> i think, i mean, all the indications of inflation have it coming down pretty significantly. whether it's the next six weeks or not, i think you get a little reprieve here, until we see where it shakes out and how high -- how much higher than 2% it is, i do think the market has the wind at its back here. >> you know, i don't know. tech is an interesting question, still. joe, you said it at the outset a lot of people are trying to figure, okay, is the worst of tech over with can you count on it to participate in the rally between now and the end of the year? i find it hard to believe that you can get a really good rally without it >> right >> you are coming off the best week since march, a

suggesting the same, including some members of the federal reserve's own board, number two, lael brainard said there maybe time to take a pause. other chairmen and board governors have suggested the same, it's important not to over-correct. what are your views here? >> i think it's important to put it in a broader, historical persp perspective. that's not really high rates if you ask your parents or grandparents. a lot of the work that the fed is doing is undoing the extraordinary work we did to try to put the economy back its feet after the pandemic so it's a big shift back to normal. probably as of today we're probably right around normal. right now the question the fed faces is how much does it actually want to tighten to move rates beyond normal and work harder to really slow things down. >> catherine, we focus so much on the big headline figure, but car prices are starting to slow down, supply chains are starting to open up and ease. when do consumers start to see the impact? >> not soon enough i think that's unfortunately the answer. you have seen mortgage rates go up a lot. i think

. >> lael brainard right bundy him he wanted the job he said let me go with biden what biden wants comeve me a graek gdp out any second 2. % growth third quarter kwpg. >> something like that generally second quarter revision not particularly large surprised if it schaenths more than -- >> gdp, hitting tape as he mortgage rates drop to 6.49% this morning, come off the highs, the numbers are out cheryl casone with it, we are waiting on home sales. cheryl: not seeing gdp cross right now producers if it i don't please let me know. >> end ing home sales 10 a.m. eastern after mortgage rates have come off highs, expecting 5% drop there. that would be 11th decline 12 months chel you've got a housing market under pressure gdp second read of the third quarter, coming out any second markets -- >> 2.9. we got it sorry. maria: 2.9%. cheryl: 2.9 maria there you go, a couple seconds to get data a little bit of delay, for whatever reason here but. maria: estimate 2.7%, 2.9% number better-than-expected. cheryl: i am told 2.9 better-than-expected number the first read 2.6 estimate for this one 2.7, now w

. >> i love what leo brainard said, the fed may need to pause or pivot, slow down rates, that's a go sign. maria: all right, we will leave it there. walter todd, keith fitzgerald. thank you so much. we have more much ahead. we are waiting on wal-mart earnings. summit unfolding in bali, all the headlines coming out of the meeting coming up. plus joe biden slammed after meeting with xi jinping. why they are calling it a sham. mornings with maria live on fox business. ♪ ♪ ♪ your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire the first-ever all-electric chevy equinox ev. up to 300 miles of range on a full charge. and a starting price around $30,000. evs for everyone, everywhere. chevrolet. hi, i'm susan, i've lost 84 pounds on golo and i've kept it off for a year. i had spent so much money on other products that when i saw the commercial for golo, the price was so much cheaper and i thought, "boy, this might not work b

lael brainard, the vice chair of the fed, and charlie evans both came out suggesting maybe they don't need to keep raising rates by 75 basis points. liz: right. >> you saw esther george who isn't known as a policy dove, she's the president of the kansas city fed, and she was talking about how she prefers a slower but steadier pace and the idea that if the consumer's really strong here, you see earnings holding fairly well here for consumer-facing companies, then the fed might have to target a higher terminal rate. so you're beginning to hear these comments around, gee, you know this'll be four 75 basis point increases in a row. in june chair powell said it was unusual, so you see some people who seem to be uncomfortable continuing to go in 75 basis point increments. you raise the risk of a financial mishap or accident perhaps. and as you get closer to where you think you might need to go, you do tend to slow down a little bit and look around. and so that's the question here, are they feeling like they can start to slow down and will they talk about that tomorrow, will chair powell tal

. >> vice chair brainard said the other day in a speech that she raised the question if a long-term changee economy like labor supply, deglobalization, climate change could reduce elasticity of supply. chair powell: that's a great set of questions we have all been thinking about a lot. the speech was really terrific on that. so, the question is, is the new normal going to be different? you don't need to worry about that, it will sort itself out. supply shock from oil prices or whatever. are we going into a situation like the 1970's where there was ongoing repeat shocks which would tend to put more overpressure. inflation over time? we don't really know. that's a great question. i guess the real question is, what are the implications? we still have a 2% inflation target and have to use our tools to achieve it. it is very hard to know the answers. we tend to assume things will go back to the way they were naturally. that does not seem to be happening so far. >> you mentioned in your remarks that forecasts of inflation have not only those at the board of governors but the private sector as we

will be or, it's been an interesting with waller are versus what lael brainard said. the economy -- you'll see some things slow down. you're seeing housing slow down, auto sales starting to slow down. so what should the fed do? i think you've got to get lu this level and then see what the impact is going to be. i mean, we've raised rates, think about where we were in march, 0% interest rates, and qe. now you moved a historic amount of interest rate, we've got to -- liz: you're saying let the medicine work its way through the patient. >> 100%. the comment about it was an encouraging inflation report, but it's a marathon. we've got to see inflation come down, and you're seeing it in parts of the economy, i.e., housing, but it doesn't happen in a today or week. it takes a period of three months, six months, nine months when you start to see the effect. liz: okay. so this is important because as we watch what the fed may do, fed funds futures now showing there is definitely a much bigger weighting to the side of a 50 basis point hike. 80.6%. 75 basis point hike is just at

dovish statement is a signal there is not unanimity within the fed there are some people like lael brainardhe vice-chairman don't agree with this powell but chairman powell gets chairman powell's way and he made it very clear in the press conference, he views inflation as the number one scourge in the country and he might not be wrong on that. he views the best way to get inflation down is the reverse wealth effect. you can't have investors making tons of money like they did last year when the stock market was up 29%. that will spur demand and push up inflation even more. charles: jim, you put out a chart, it is all over with everyone is gravitating to this chart. you see the terminal rate about 5.1 but as i showed earlier you had the cme fed watch model at 5 1/2%. so what gives here? >> yeah. any that the chart you're looking at was a little bit dated and the cme has been actually moving up but what the chart is showing in, that is the new metric jay powell wants us to look at. not how much they will raise in december. almost doesn't matter if it is 50 or 75. the terminal rate is the fancy

jerome powell and now there seems to be a little bit of daylight in between the hawks and, well, br brainard, i guess. do you think that will change more, we will get more rhetoric from the fed prior to the next meeting? >> yeah. i do but i think you want to be a little careful, karen, not to misinterpret the rhetoric, at least on the sort end. that different -- the differences between fed officials, i see, as affecting where they're going to stop. not kind of getting there in the interim. i think 50 looks like a pretty good bet for the december meeting. remember, that's a big rate hike i know you are kind of numb to it all but at this point 50 is still a big number there might be another 25 on top of that, maybe another 25 after that so it may be 100 it may be 75 more. the issue is do they stop, you know, at 50 or do they stop at 100? i think that's the difference between the fed officials. those differences should get a little bigger after when the new year starts. but remember, we used to have hawks and doves on the fed that's normal. that's normalization of the situation. right now the l

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one governor, governor cook's term is up but come 2026 you've have the chair poul and vice chair brainard and a lot of members who have will to be reappointed 20 24 could be market-moving than will come into investor focus next year. >> a lot of time to talk about that scott, thank you, and michael as well good to see you both. >> and do not miss cnbc election night special. "business on the ballot," tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. eastern featuring a great lineup of guests. here's where we stand right now in the markets as we head out to a quick break. the highs of the day, 480 points on the dow we're continuing to build on the session here the s&p 500 up more than a percent and the nasdaq gone up more than 5% microsoft, meta, adobe leading the charge even though tesla and netflix under pressure carvrana shares crashing after last week's selloff and now wall last week's selloff and now wall street i power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the m

fundamental issue that you address, and the answer is i have no value here, and i don't think lael brainardure. we don't know. i would suggest encore inflation, getting below three will be a shock, and you want to see another market move like yesterday. 2.9%, and that signals disinflation. >> we are light on fed speak. that is a good news. a veterans day treasury market is closed as it should be, i don't know why the equity market is not close. >> don't get me going. in the bond market, we look to the german two-year, five basis points. on a 10 year, just north of 2%. the two-year from a year ago, november 19. -78 basis points. >> you see, in germany, the markets open, and it's a bank holiday. we don't have a bank holiday. we don't have those in america. >> you call it a public holiday. i don't know. >> bank holidays. we were there. it was really something to see. the united kingdom was shut down as they did for a funeral. >> will finish with the foreign exchange. dxy, specifically, worst day, going all the way back to 2015. if you take a single look at the euro, very close to 103, let's lo

louis fed, even will brainard who has been viewed as more of a dove lately, after the fed minutes lasteek, everybody said the fed looks more dovish, they are willing to taper now, and saying some of them will be more restrictive on the rate, but the majority want to see this taper now. with john williams saying inflation is way too high, unemployment may have to go up to 5%, he says the key rate needs to be more restrictive and did not give a level, but jim bullard did, he said maybe to the range of 5%-7%. that is a bit more hawkish than he has been. tom barkin put himself squarely in the middle when he spoke to us in terms of yes, he's ready to taper and he thinks we need to be more restrictive. he's clearly worried that the risk here is inflation that is proof stubbornly high. let's listen to what he said. >> inflation has been stubborn or than i would like. i start with the idea of getting control over inflation, and as long as inflation stays elevated , it just makes the case to me we need to do more. kathleen: let me put this in context of today, because the fed needing to slow do

but you have to -- if you start getting these negatives, from lael brainard say, it's something. >> theetail numbers we got at 8:30 look pretty good. ex-autos above the expectations. but that said, i continue to hear -- things have not fallen off a cliff. >> no. >> and you go into a holiday season that may be okay. but they're not where they were. and then the question becomes, who else are we going to hear from tomorrow? macy's, bj's, gap, kohl's, a bunch more coming in terms of the earnings that may give a better sense as to the strength of the consumer because it's not just about the retail stocks but this is also, despite what was a strong retail sales number today overall, that it is about the -- whether the consumer's starting to weaken at certain points, and then ultimately a lot of people are going to want to take that and say, well, what does that mean for fed policy? >> and then, you just get the same comments today from sanjay, just now, about micron, saying, once again, there's too much inventory in the channel once again, they have to cut back on capital equipment. and what

under control, then i think that you can take more risk maybe we took too muchrisk based on leal brainard> goldman says none of the data we've been getting lately is even remotely recessionary, and that's why atlanta fed's looking for a four handle this quarter >> i know. he's saying, we should narrowly avoid a recession, guys. interestingly -- and we'll get to malone in a bit, but he's in the camp of we'll have a mild recession. if you look at what jan hatzius had to say, we got a half point rise in the unemployment rate. and there you have the rest of it you know, jim, listen, we've got so many earnings this morning, whether it's cisco, obviously, you had chuck robbins on mar"mad money. nvidia alibaba with that incredible 3% revenue growth i kid, because i can remember the days when it was 36, 38, 39. just 3 but not any outsize moves, guys, in terms of the sponresponse toy of these earnings up or down nvidia may be down a bit, macy's may be up a bit, cisco may be up a bit, and baba down jim, i want to come to you on these. >> well, nvidia said that, over and over again, that china was t

i keep going back to what fed vice chair lael brainard has repeatedly pointed out, which is the sourcent inflation can be located until the expanded margins it's got to be whittled down for the fed to be satisfied that the demand slowdown is going to make its wayinto the inflation data >> which makes it sort of a dilemma for equity investors >> for sure. >> do you want margins to come in >> in those sectors, for sure. that's why almost all the chain retailers trade really cheap they're undemanding valuations because nobody thinks, necessarily, you want to bet that they can continue like this >> they did make some comments, again, as macy's said, sort of bifurcated consumer, rack not doing nearly as well as the flagship stores. you want to do the tesla note? >> sure, let's do that tesla shares, guys, are up 2.5%. we've been talking in recent days about whether the impact of twitter and, i guess, i mean, is it chaos is that fair to describe it as chaotic? >> wedbush calls it a circus show >> i think that's fair it has had an impact on tesla shares, because it certainly would seem to be t

chairman powell and others, vice chairman brainard, try to speak in a safe manner, getting out to a reality media, much of wall street, is now in a parlor game of futures trying to find not only the path to a terminal rate, but then to gain a pivot to a more accommodative stance. you and i have never seen this. how do we extricate ourselves from this silliness? alan: the fed will extricate itself by its actions and words. remember the jackson hole speech from chair powell. the whole purpose of that was to shake out of the markets heads the notion that this would be a quick peak in the fed funds rate and that coming down right away. he made it very clear that would not happen. we don't think that will happen either. we are not going to get rid of the constant, drumbeat chatter about the fed coming out of market people. that is their constitutional right, so to speak, and they will say what they say. but the clever people will keep their eye on the ball, filter through a lot of that noise, pay attention to what is coming out of the fed's mall. -- mouth. that mainly means the fed chairman. tom

jonathan: vice chair brainard says we have a additional work to do. that seems to be the theme. we already priced in what the fed has to do. look at the terminal rate. what's the consequence for companies. with the consequence of holding. when you get to a year or two years. jonathan: it will be painful when growth starts to get here and is not moving. which is the overwhelming -- lisa: which is what they put out. jonathan: jonathan: jonathan: if you've got a consensus that large, that big going into 2023. lisa: how do you trade against stagflation. perhaps you get inflation that comes down. jonathan: maybe growth remains resilient. lisa: how about this, how much are stocks already trading as the counterargument the overwhelming consensus on paper? are they -- jonathan: joining us now is senior equity strategist federated earners. do you want to chase this rally? -- federated hermes. do you want to chase this rally? linda: we've been bouncing up and down all your jaw -- all year long. and what we saw last week was a great day on thursday. we saw money flowing into tech stocks to

people coming into the store by default, that gets nerve-racking -- >> you know seagull is coming on brainardcks, saying it's going to be much lower inflation, it's time. >> and headline ppi is supposed to be the consensus estimate, and core is 0.3%, and so this is going to be a big issue. further up the pipeline with the -- >> 4% ten-year >> we are waiting on walmart's numbers, and that's a question people are going to be asking, are the inflationary pressurers, are they able to stem the tide with some of this stuff. >> you read about volker -- >> yeah, i interviewed him right here on "squawk. >> that was a contributor. >> no. >> on "squawk box" >> i am pretty sure we did that. >> i don't think it's the same i think that the risk is that they killed this -- we work hard to get jobless rate down to 3.5% try to get it back to seven. >> we'll see >>> retail earnings are in focus, and we are waiting for walmart. on the data front we will get the october producer price index. i like to say the entire name of it, and that's at 8:30, the producer price index and then lisa cook has speaking events t

braina brainard seems to be concerned about doing too much there's been this monolithic fed for a longe out where that peak rate is going to go. >> he does a whole paragraph just to bring some of the dissenters into -- that sounds scary. but as envy jay powell where your legacy is you stayed too long or you don't stay long enough and you get inflation get out of hand. i don't know how you strike that perfect balance and it's not easy we want him to succeed, but i don't want to be him that's for sure. got any hair that's not gray by the end of this, jay powell is going to be white, i think. his hair >> it's going to be tough. but there's no gulag, just to be clear. >> there's no what >> there's no gulag. but there is an archipelago. thanks, steve. see you. >> now let's talk about the broader markets. here is what billionaire carl icahn said on closing bell overtime about yesterday's rally. >> i am still very -- quite bearish on what is going to happen a rally like this is, of course, very dramatic to say the least, but you have them all the time in a bear market and i still think we're

what they signaled was -- that lael brainard is in the ascendancy. hike. that seems firm. markets already knew this, but confirmation is always well received. risk assets responding appropriately. we have also seen the dollar coming down is a result. you've got the japanese yen up by 1%, the british pound now at 1.2143. european markets more broadly trading positively on the equity front. joining us now is kristine aquino. there was not that much a basic surprise in anything i read. we are migrating to a 50 basis point world. the last press conference had already signaled that. kristine: yes, but there is something to be said about seeing it on paper and getting confirmation. we did get a whiff of that at the november meeting, but now we are getting the reinforcement that markets were looking for in terms of strengthening this idea of a recalibration in that policy heading into 2020 three. there are a couple of nuances that were interesting. their description of adverse policymakers seeing the he -- seeing the he is higher than expected. you do not n