kailey: you see room for yields to him move higher, but what about breakevens?re,lds have gone rake evens have been rated higher. -- breakevens have been rated higher. do you think expectations have gotten too far ahead? mark: the market seems to be getting -- giving the fed the benefit of the doubt. the fed is dell this -- dovish. powell fueled this by saying that they will keep rates on hold for a long time. we were talking about inflation and inflation expectations in psychological terms. what will they give consumers and businesses to have considerably higher expectations. the fed is doing their part. the market appears them -- to be giving them the benefit of the doubt. now near theire historic lows, talking about the 10 year and beyond. that is an important tailwind of the economy. for the market to see breakevens widen, they need to see evidence that inflation is really taking hold, that the fed can generate upside inflationary pressures and that he will always -- and that they will not react to it. pce could go above 2% with the base affects coming off o

i was looking at the breakevens this morning.beforety much back the pandemic on those breakevens. precrisis. and yes, but bloomberg opinion did write a piece talking about the fact that is it a mirage in terms of inflation? you have to look at what is going on in terms of the labor market and that is starting to stall. little did you know your life would get this exciting that you would be up at 4:00 a.m. in the morning to be reading about breakevens in the united states of america. did you think joining me on the show would get that exciting? did you think so? annmarie: no. [laughter] --hink you have a lot more you usually offer a lot more excitement to me than breakevens but that's where we are today. the final week of 2020. manus: indeed. we look forward to 2021 and so do the whole crew as well. let's talk about markets because they are all going to scream at the tv that we are chatting too much. we had too good of a time on "daybreak europe." it's christmas. it's another day for nvidia and apple. will we go to the movies ever

this is rising breakevens. it also means u.s. dollar weakness. it means generally in risk assets, particularly in the regions, the sectors, the investment styles and factors that have been depressed so much since covid-19. manus: stay with me. daniele antonucci, private bank chief economist and macro strategist argus this morning. coming up, the final stage files are set for another covid-19 vaccine. we have the interview with the ceo of novavax next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way it's time you make the rules. so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get nationwide 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get nationwide 5g included and save up to $300 a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. the temerity to take

the blue year is--blue line is 10-year breakeven, highest in over a year now.t plunge in the crash is just one major, but it does speak to the degree to which inflation bets are starting -- continue to have momentum. caroline: it is 2%, though, and the main aim is to get past 2%. interesting to see if anyone can hit that. joe: for more on this, we are going to be talking with nobel laureate paul krugman, to sing with professor of economics at the graduate center of the city university of new york, and columnist for "the new york times." thank you so much for joining us. the market looks optimistic. you see it in breakevens, you see it and sectors was -- we wee sudden blow from the virus, and once that headwind goes away, there is pent-up demand. there is people who have been saving a lot of money. i'm actually quite optimistic about rapid economic recovery starting sometime next year. that is not indefinite, but i think people are right to be okta mystic. theremistic for romaine: is a lot of money in terms of household savings fo with regards to the labor marke

to rise. 1.80 five for the 10 year breakeven.ng as real yields stay negative that means the risk on phase is continuing. let's get to the vaccine story. marett,to welcome sean biontech chief officer. congratulations. you get approval in the u.k. for the vaccine. how much can you distribute in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of next year? sean: what we have publicly disclosed is that for all countries we are producing and will have ready up to 50 million doses this year. we will be sticking to that target and should be able to provide up to 50 million this year. going into next year, including the 50 million from this year, we anticipate $1.3 billion in total. i do not think we have disclosed what we will be providing, but what i can say is we are ramping up production quickly so we can get the vaccine to everyone as quickly as possible. point, dog up on that you see yourself bringing in more capacity, are you negotiating for more capacity, can you give an idea of how those conversations are going if they are taking pl

i did want to highlight the breakeven number. tenure breakeven, 1.83. breakeven, 1.83%. what do you get when it comes to real yields? is this a goldilocks an area? -- goldilocks scenario? we will talk about all of that. that's get to the top story. the u.k. approving the pfizer/biontech vaccine for use. it should be available across the u.k. starting next week, with priority going to care homes, frontline workers, and the elderly. joining us with more from berlin is bloomberg's european health care reporter. naomi, it is approved. what does the rollout actually look like? is the infrastructure in place to distribute this quickly? reporter: good morning. this is approved. the rollout will probably be a matter of months, not days or weeks. the government has said they have set up 50 hospitals to deliver this vaccine. it will also in some cases be able to be put into a cooling carrier to be brought directly to care homes and given to people there. this is not a case of snapping the fingers, and next week suddenly 20 million people in the u.k. have been vaccinated. guy: how

we see scope for breakevens to move higher here passed 1.5% to 2%.nce, the market isn't actually pricing in enough future expectation in our minds. even though we believe it is constrained, the market isn't necessarily pricing it appropriately in our minds. we see a real opportunity in that part of the market. lisa: i am struggling to find the connection here. you think that treasury yields can't rise that much, that negative real yields are here and we could see further negative yields, and using we are under pressing the risk of inflation. if the missing element here the ?ederal reserve gregory: that is a big part of it. at the end of the day, the fed is not moving off zero. you have bond buying continuing. there's talk about refitting that, may be taking more duration dollars out of the market. to me, the markets actually hinge around real rates and low nominal rates. i think the fed understands that. i think most market participants understand that. have, the world needs to lower rates to continue. the marketast month, went crazy. euphoria, some

another five dollars, it will continue to grow because you are looking at breakevens and hedge of allces that are attractive. rates, thenother 75 same as we have done of the last 15 weeks, we end up with 360 horizontal rigs in the united states. againen arguably growing in 2022. when that comes on the horizon, -- you have to look slightly longer into the future. lisa: we will have to get you back in the not so distant future. thank you for joining us, martijn rats,. coming up on bloomberg technology, morgan stanley vice chair of wealth management. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: -- ritika: this is your bloomberg business flash. jp morgan plans to raise annual bonuses. same time, payouts will decline across the rest of the bank. traders may see bonuses rise by 20%. generated 23.9 million dollars in revenue. michael corbin is pleased with joe biden's pick for treasury secretary. that the banking industry had a good relationship with her. elected, or voted into the seat, she will do a great job and i would expect that relationship to continue. out, anothershout glass ceiling broken in ter

inflationary expectations, as you measure them by market breakevens are kind of teetering lower, ifemoving this does look like there will be lasting scars in the economy. the recovery and breakevens we have seen i think is out of hope that the scars will be less damaging as the vaccine rounds the corner. the question is, can there be enough fiscal support to -- us through this transition until the vaccine arrives that will support inflationary expectations? that is probably the most important way in which this immediate fiscal support can nevertheless have long-term impacts on the economy. jonathan: let's make it simple and wrap up with this. number why the 250,000 we got last week is so important. how many jobs do we need to generate to fill the gap of the last nine months, and how long would it take at a rate of 250 k to get it done? >> we are talking millions of jobs still displaced. it is an open question how much of those are going to be permanently lost and how much of them should be permanently lost. that is going to be the sticking point here. there is no question some kinds

if you start to see real interest rates go more negative again as breakevens widen, then i think youan see more progress. francine: thank you so much. head ofreetham there, multi-asset at royal london asset management. coming up, jack lew 1130 a.m. london time here on "surveillance." this is bloomberg. ♪ year,ying into next including the 50 million, 1.3 billion in total, i do not think this is going what we are providing against in the first half, but of course we are ramping up reduction extremely quickly so that we can get the vaccine to everyone as quickly as possible. francine: well, that was the beyond tech chief commercial biontechsean merritt -- chief commercial officer sean ett talking about a vaccine before 2021. the vaccinel that can get approval before christmas. of course a very different type of vaccine, but we also understood by speaking to the astrazeneca chief executive that he needs to go through a second set of trials. now let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. nestlÉ is investing 3.6 bil

we think as the data comes through, you will see breakeven inflation rates do a lot of the heavy lifting to bring is interest rates -- to bring interest-rate higher. real yields, less so. central banks will be dovish. the reflation rate will move higher. we would not expect a fed to even think about raising rates until you started to see breakeven inflation rates priced above 2.5%. that will be higher than where we are today. we think they have more work to do in 2021. jonathan: you mentioned competing for capital elsewhere. looking at the bond market in the u.s. now, the treasury market is the high yielder of the core government bond, fixed income universe of the moment. 10 year in the u.k. now, lower, lower, lower, front and negative, curve in germany, negative out to 10 years through much of this year. walk me through the dynamic and how powerful that is? whether that is an anchor or not for the treasury market? matt: absolutely is. this is part of a 30 year trend toward lower global interest rates, ultimately, spearheaded by central banks. central bank policies are the number one dri

the breakevens -- in a row. the breakevens are beginning to turn higher. is this an underappreciated risk? if so, how my eye position for it in 2021? esty: the question for inflation is, are we too late or too early? tips have done well for the second year in a row, outperforming. i am not so worried about inflation. as we get vaccines, as we start to get back to normal, we are likely 12 easthear -- we are likely to at least conversations least heartion -- at some conversations about inflation. at some point, inflation expectations are bound to rise a bit further. talk,ie: expectations of but you are not going to actually start pricing in inflation in 2021 when you write your outlook note, are you? esty: not at this point. we have had qe for a number of years. even if the speed or scale has increased in 2020, that has not really led to much more velocity of money. so not much from an inflation perspective. the second question is inflation stimulus -- fiscal stimulus. we certainly need the second round from the u.s.. we need the europeans to get together as

breakevens, gold could do well with inflation.,eing a buoyant people may want to ditch gold and go for riskier assets. what do you think the outlook is? are we going back toward the $1700 per ton for gold? >> gold really took a hit in november when we saw investors move back to riskier assets. one of the points i like to look at is the inflows of gold into physical. -- they are really at the lowest levels we have seen in 12 months, which might adjust investors have cooled a little bit on gold. there are still holding as we know it record highs. gold is an interesting play. it has no income stream. it can do very well in an inflationary environment. we think a lot of investors are probably at their ultimate gold holding in terms of a portfolio and diversification perspective. we would need another impetus to get gold moving again if we assume we are going to see a reasonable recovery coming into next year. your opinion is as valuable as everybody else's, if not more so. it is qualified. can bitcoin challenge gold for a piece of the

the orange line is 10 year breakevens with increased expectations for inflation over the coming yearsu can really see what is driving stocks and the question is can it go further? joining us for more is the author of the chief convection in blog. we've seen this reflation. breakevens10 year getting close to 1.9 or 2%. important pre-condition for a stockmarket rally? i think it can continue because one of the things that is interesting about what will this -- what will be this recovery as opposed to recoveries in the past is the fed is going to lean into it more than it traditionally has. given the fact we are 20 across allows amarket, it range of where asset markets can trade and i think the key will be in terms of allowing this reflationary rally to continue his for the fed to maintain that its function is here to stay. romaine: do you think that's realistic? if you believe what powell and the fed have been saying, there is an inflation reaction they would have should you start to see it materialize in a meaningful way. we can argue about how long that would take but at some point, y

we are seeing that with breakevens. around breakevens are 190 basis points. real yields are falling. all of this is a reflection of expected stimulus, whether monetary or fiscal, but we are theactually seeing inflation come into goods prices. that is really the key. unless we get that, it is going to be hard to have a sustainable rise in 10 year treasury yields year, 1.25% or 1.4% next but that would just be a natural adjustment, not inflation scare. jonathan: 1.25% on the 10 year. the idea of this reflationary narrative doesn't evolve, that is your view. when it comes to risk assets, you are perfectly aligned with the crowd. why? jim: because i think there's a shortage of securities, for one. there's a lot of liquidity in the marketplace and not enough securities. corporate supply next year is probably going to be lower in terms of net issuance by about -$500 billion, so next year we may expect around $1.3 trillion. and 1.3llion this year trillion dollars next year. the fed is doing qe and continues to buy $80 billion per month. maybe even extend securities

we then got back to breakeven in five months, the third fastest on record. so essentially, it was a inuation that was pandemic its initiation, that was human designed, if you will, to close down economies. but once the fed said we will do whatever it takes, we knew that the fiscal policy, as well as monetary policy, was behind us. lisa: when you look at the technical's, there's a question of what will outperform. perhaps everything will continue to do well, but spoke investment group came out yesterday and said the nasdaq posted positive return on 62% of trading days in 2020. that ranks the fourth highest going back to 1971. typically it will underperform the year after. do you think that the nasdaq is going to be a weak spot heading into 22 anyone -- into 2021? sam: we have definitely seen over exuberance, in my opinion. rolling 12ok at the month differential between the s&p 500 growth in the s&p 500 value index going back to their inception in the mid-1970's, we had an all-time high of 35% differential which is even higher than where we were in the mid-199

around 2% is kind of the normal level for breakevens.idence for higher inflation globally. we see low inflation everywhere, even in china right now. however, we have had, if you like, magic money in the states incredibly and we have more magic money to come. people'st plopped in bank accounts. could there be a bit of inflation? sure. with a new fed policy, they are going to do nothing, absolutely nothing about it. could bond yields go higher? i doubt it. bonds are not exactly wonderful investments, but i doubt it with all this qe. 31,he way, as of december that has been one of the worst forecasts is next year bond yields are going to rise. they just haven't. matt: thanks so much for joining us, really appreciate your traditional new year's eve visit to us. alan higgins, chief investment officer at coutts. alan will be continuing the conversation on bloomberg radio at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time, so tune in. i want to bring you some more news from china. this time, it is hong kong. orderingr city state be returned to prison. onmy li had been rele

projection show the 10 year at breakeven level for the first time in a year, but at the same time, were seeing yields being depressed. is there really hope for the liquidation trade? >> i think we are still hoping for some sort of liquidation trade led by a recovery. we certainly have seen yields start to price in that dynamic, and i think globally what we're starting to see his little hints of inflation popping up. concentrated,r but it could end up being something as we start to see prices return alongside more momentum and economic activity. when you look at the different components that make you.m. asia, where do diversify when you look at opportunities to pick up some bargains? >> i definitely think north asia has been the focus of all their previous conversations with china pretty well baked in at this point. certainly one of the only regions expected to grow on the year. we aresame time, i think actually looking at a point where some of those other asian countries between india and indonesia can start to catch up with a broader group and reclaim their standing within their peer

i look at a breakevens a encz the u.s. 10 year, it is like 1%.hat is telling me the market will see some inflation, but does not expect the feds to react. is that correct? beah: we expect the fed will -- continue asset purchases through the course of 2021. no move in terms of fed rates any time on the horizon. rate highernflation end expectations rise, you can see markets price in a rate hike sooner than expected, which could lead to tightening financial conditions. it really comes down to how well the fed communicates. what they mean by inflation, just moderately above 2%, given how weak inflation has been. to thecomes down communication factor in whether the fed can keep financial conditions accommodated even without adjusting their policy stance in terms of asset purchases. great to speak with you. thank you very much indeed. sarah house, wells fargo securities senior economist. fargo macro wells strategist will be joining us at 7:30. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine have a well-deserved day off toda

the 10 year breakevens are kissing the 2% level. tenure papers kissing the 1% level.ow would you hedge from an fx perspective for inflation risk? term from ae the former colleague of mine, you just want to belong god's currency. gold. that will be the ultimate hedge for inflation. manus: [laughter] ares: real interest rates negative around the world. especially in the u.s.. that would be a big supporting factor for gold. if you want to hedge yourself against inflation -- i don't think we will have inflation anytime soon. at least over the next two years. there's too much flag left. the output cap is expected to remain negative for the next two years. according to the imf. unemployment rates and most advanced countries are still above historical averages. i don't see any risk of inflation in the near term. .ertainly a pickup manus: that's a new one on the show. if you go to the gold round, i saw summit he who bought 6000 contracts of $3000 options for christmas 2021. stay with me. my guess this morning. elias haddad. your first word news flow this new year's eve. tempe

talk to many analysts, they talk about their biggest fear and it is inevitably a rise in inflation breakevensher rates. what do you think about that? how do you look at that as a macro strategist? laura: i certainly do not think we will see the cyclical upswing in inflation, notably in the u.s.. just given the fact that we are economiesng these recover from quite inexpensive collapse. if anything, we are seeing a k shaped recovery emerge in the u.s., and potentially, more stagflation because we see no food inflation, and we see some of the disinflation takeoff, but the services sectors, which are composed of 60% of the peak got index, the struggle. that is against the backdrop of intentionally sluggish -- with the virus not contained. i don't think we will see runaway inflation. that will not prop the fed to take any kind of action and a brace the average inflation targeting. it was welcome at 2% or higher pce reading, but i do not think that is the cause. given the state of the economy currently. alix: so the fed is like great, rates over 1%, and markets said, ah, rates over 1%. a consensus

inflation market i think is more pressing risk, saying risk goes up, so breakevens go up. it is really based on underlying inflation dynamics, but a very well could see an upside inflation reshot -- inflationary reshot -- inflationary shock, and that could well present destabilizing problems for the market. francine: where would this inflation actually come from? i like breaking down the inflation basket into three, 4, 5 high-level categories. used to have cold goods -- you still have core goods, services and energy. domestically generated inflation in the u.s. is hot. thebeing masked by some of global influences of the strong currency. i think we will seek oil very positive around the end of q1 and a little bit beyond that next year. oil and energy costs definitely have an impact on inflation because they are an input cost into other prices as well, and as the currency continues to weaken, we know the u.s. is an open economy and they do have a high print city to import. if the dollar is weak, commodity prices are pushed higher by that, and we are seeing that across the sp

if you look at the five year breakeven, it is getting back to 2%. we have not seen this since july last year since when we were thinking about easing. in terms of levels, we are nowhere near where the central banks want us to be. they want the economy to run hot -- hot. they want yields going through 225. that has been 2018. levels,they will go to and that is going to help risk appetite. if we do get to 220 and 225 and the 10 year, and that stays at 100 basis points and use that, we are will -- we are looking at well below 100 basis points. that is something that central bankers wants to enforce. in their view this is the only way to get that back into the economy and to move that cash. , think aboutrates that, it needs to be spent. tom: you look very good inside. you mentioned levels. this is so important. when do you presume, given the vaccination, that we get the glide path of january and february of this year? where do we see a jump that gets us back on stream that is comfortable for so many of the public? geoffrey: i think around midyear and pr

breakevens took a break, right? the forward-looking kind of inflation expectations, they went flat.t the future inflation gauge, league-leading indicator that we produce for the inflation cycle indicator that we produce for the inflation cycle has gone up. that might not sound like a big deal. we are coming off of really low readings on inflation. but it is if you are on a tight budget for the k shaped economy conversation, and when you look at equity valuations, a lot of those current valuations to some degree are predicated on sub 1% interest rates, and so when interest rates rise even a quarter of a point, that is a big deal for valuations. so that can weigh on equity valuations, that part of the market back and forth in 2021, and separately, remember we said trees do not grow to the sky. if we believe the cycle starts to turn down, not a recession, just the slowdown, you have a 1-2 punch now if higher yields weighing on prices, some slowing and growth weighing on earnings growth. that is a tougher combination. it is very different in 2021 at some point than what we saw in 2020.

dynamic there, but your disinflation ideas fascinating given what i see her and five-year, five-year breakevensit is too much for television and too much complexity this early in the morning. i am looking at an inflationary vector in the united states, and i am not there in europe yet, but even europe is giving me an elbow up to a higher guesstimate in inflation. when do you capitulate to an inflationary trend? george: well, for me, what is most important is the actual underlying inflation data. the market drives inflation expectations higher because global growth is good. that is also helping our weaker dollar view, but in terms of sustained return of inflation to 2%, i would need to see it in the data. i would need to see the labor market, wages going up, and i do not see that next year. tom:'s has been hugely valuable. toward sarah bellows, my regards to your team. has been hugely valuable. george saravelos, my regards to your team. in the next hour, jacob lew, the former treasury secretary of the united states, arguably the most important conversation that we have had with him. jack lew, on

breakeven above 2%?ustine: being a portfolio manager versus a macroeconomists, it is hard to find which rate the fed will agree on eventually. we are looking at a reflation trade and how portfolios are positioned if inflation is introduced into the market it is more of a concern about once the fed ultimately agrees on. manus: ok. i am checked in. we can pick it up in a moment in terms of what 1.5% might do to the equity trade. justine stays with me. we had mickey mouse the last time we were together select like to see the draft come alive at the beginning of the next part of the program. progress, the economic gathers pace but fails to respond to the height. we have the details. ♪ >> at the time, president trump called his electoral college tally a landslide. by his own standard, these numbers represented a clear victory then and i respectfully suggest you so now. manus: president-elect joe biden there, noting that president trump claimed a comfortable victory in 2016 after receiving the same number of e

we have seen a solid rise in inflation breakevens.it the fed, or is it if we wind up seeing a better back half of next year that prices and more they value trade -- more of a value trade? kit: i think the first part is a dollar story. the u.s. has had higher real interest rates than most of its peers. started when the ecb stop hiking all the way back in 2011, when abe nymex -- when abenomics was really getting going in 2012, and we started seeing the ecb negative rates and so on. it is true that whole period, the dollar went up an awfully long way because the was economy, with much more active fiscal policy than everybody else, with able to have a better balance to its overall policy mix. with rates at zero, and with everybody engaging fiscal policy, i don't think the dollar can be a really expensive currency, really overvalued. if it once to suck in the external capital to finance that. so that is the adjustment that has to happen, and it happens all the more if we get optimistic about emerging markets another other places so that ca

inflation breakeven is at 1.9. i would argue it is getting to levels that are going to be difficult to go much higher. in 2017 and 2018, the rate was at 2.2, when the end up limit rate was genuinely at 3.5%, not artificially -- the unemployment rate was genuinely at 3.5%, not artificially. you've got to think of the 10 year in the u.s. as a global asset. rise, iron ore prices, other asset prices are being bid up. the global reflation trade is taking place in yields in the u.s., but in europe as well. this is the market reassessing, perhaps too far. toughconstance, that's for fed officials, even ecb officials because if we are looking at real reflation, but than the short term there's still issues and still problems with the economy because of the virus, what are they going to do? how did they manage that in the meeting next thursday? nextance: really, the tools to come out of the box in force is yield curve control. the tltro'secb has where they are pushing out ecb is, but i think the a bit more hampered than the f

so, let us presume with 10 year inflation breakeven that 193, the fed would be very happy if those went to 2.25%, market implied expert -- expectations were through their 2% target. they would be patting themselves on the back. i think they would be fine with another 30 or 40 basis points as long as they were driven by the inflation component, or driven by a move higher at this point, and that would elicit a response from the fed. i also think if there is going to be a fiscal stimulus deal, and that is our forecast since the election result and it became clear it would be more of a divided government. i saw in the democratic's party interest to do a deal. as soon there was going to be a deal that takes heat off of the fed for adding additional accommodation. i would assume that if they were to add any accommodation, it would only at this point be adding forward guidance to their kiwi purchases. the market was -- there qe purchases. the market was somewhat disappointed in september and i cannot imagine they would want to stretch the maturity from six to 12 years. the curve is not that st

inflationnk breakevens, the 10 year sector, that is where you will have a breakout even if the fed ising to push further out the curve. expectations are really going to start booming once the year gets underway. jon, that is fascinating. the real yield doesn't matter. jonathan: that's a great question, tom. i can explore it further with ian right now. real yields could even be more negative than it is now. if that's what you're suggesting? ian: that's exactly what i am suggesting, and the fed would like to see that. we all want real yields as slow as possible as it spurs the -- real yields that yields as low as possible because it spurs the economy even further. it is that time of year you are trying to be light about things, but i don't now, i was really taken aback by the news. lisa and i are living it here. all of our viewers are living it. if we are not laughing about it, we can't get through this. jonathan: i couldn't agree with you more. it is just a really difficult time. london overnight going into tier three. tom: stop, stop. what does tears remain for you? -- what does tier

the markets get restless when you see growth and breakevens. stimulus will be the last piece of that in the u.s.. remember, we need stimulus. the output gap is still big. we still need growth in 2021 and 2022 to offset the loss of growth this year. stimulus will be big, along with the fed not extending their purchases. lisa: let's talk about additional purchases of treasuries and other central banks around the world, including the federal reserve. morgan stanley has a forecast of $2.8 trillion of asset registers by the major central banks next purchases.et registers ho how much has that been priced into the riskier debt? brian: there is no question that a lot of this is. priced in how is stimulus not raised in? how is the vaccine is not raced in, but the market still enjoys when these events happen. there is reason to believe this can continue, so it is hard to look at risk assets and say none of this is known. the question is which risk most? does it help the when you look at treasuries and investment-grade credit, where a lot of the help was

what we've seen is breakevens correlated with assets.trade, and it's driving dollar down commodities higher. and that gets caught in reflation trade. again, whether or not that is sustainable, both because the economy is accompanied by low rates, and there's even more debt now, and it crimps some peoples abilities to serve that debt, and is rubbing some people to pay that debt. i would say it becomes a problem more quickly in the current environment then we would have been used to historically. and central banks, and what we're seeing really is central banks shifting from dual mandates to more narrow mandates, which are ignoring inflation to a certain degree. what they're saying is they're promising to be a responsible, and they want interest rate policy, monetary policy, financial conditions to be easier than the economic situational outlook would justify. i don't think they would what the market to front run future economic improvement. they want the opposite. i do think the ecb's operating a de facto yield curve control policy. the fe