brendan greeley.arris.ith maury let's talk about how to make and use forecasts. one of the chief development is that the fed's forecast have been consistently wrong. they've been estimating mournfully -- inflation that has been happening. broken in the way we look at economic forecasts? maury: i think what happened was missed many forecasters the impact of globalization. you have a much more competitive global economy. also, it is very hard to forecast the dollar. once you have the stronger dollar, that was going to contribute to less than expected inflation. the other thing that has happened on inflation, if you get beyond the core inflation and look at overall inflation, who knew that oil prices were going to go from over $100 $230 $30?wo under brendan: this talk about globalization. -- let's talk about globalization. you are saying that labor can move elsewhere. it is difficult to create inflation in wages the way it worked in the past. maury: you've got more competition from foreign labor. case in

i'm brendan greeley. stocks on the retreat worldwide.rker has the latest from london. 600 down by 3.3 percent. we have fallen for six consecutive days. we are at the lowest level since october. -- october 2014. this is the decline, some of the main indices across europe are falling. the ibex in spain and mid-30 down by over 3%. there is an industry group that is rising amidst the selloff. basic resources, which has had a since mario draghi on january 21 signals more stimulus at the march 10 meeting. every single other industry group is declining. media down by almost 5%. thanks down by 4.6%. to the havenmoving of the core european bond market. 4.6%.ks down by to put your a day money into the haven assets. brendan: the nervous tic when i am watching the european spread. we will speak to the chief european economist at bank of america merrill lynch. joe is looking at what is happening to greek assets today. the greek stock market is getting pummeled. daniel weston, his hedge fund has done so well. beating 96% of his peers. ryan chilcote sp

i am brendan greeley. here is a we are watching -- the markets soaring higher. oil added more than 5%. now approaching $31 a barrel. the fed minutes came out an hour ago, boosting markets even more. the minutes show policymakers believe turmoil in the market is posing a rising risk to the u.s. economy. apple takes a stand, refusing to help federal investigators on that the iphone of the san bernardino shooter. how will this impact apple's business? we are one hour from the close of trading. stocks are soaring. julie hyman has the latest. where are we? highs of are at the the session, or very close to the highs of the session. for the third straight day, a gain of more than 1%. only happened 15 times. this is the 15th time that has happened since 1990, when we have had three straight days of 1% gains or more for the s&p 500. it is quite unusual. it is happening an environment where it seems to be a rebound/recovery kind of affect. there is no big macro headline for the past several days spurring the rally.

i am brendan greeley in for betty liu.this, and we are at exactly 2% on the s&p 500 right now, on the day, the dow jones down 191, and the nasdaq is where the real carnage is, still not yet at 2%, looking a lot better than it did around 2:00 today when we decided to do a special. we are just going to do the bloomberg business flash instead, a look at some of the biggest stories in business news right now. wanting the ceo of the aol unit to explore a possible bid for yahoo!, that according to someone with knowledge of the situation who also says the largest u.s. phone carrier has not hired anchors to conduct an offer, and there have been no formal talks. yahoo! is looking to make their video streaming service an area of profit, and it is a potential asset. facebook is not letting a temporary setback in india affected. the telecom regulator ruled to restrict programs that provide free access to data. facebook has been pushing for a limited internet plan to get more indians online. on the of google is verge of becoming one of

i'm brendan greeley with mark barton.na says some banks will be forced to lock away reserves, a move that may maintain credit growth after smaller lenders jumped in january. director of asian equities stopped by bloomberg early today to give us context. >> what you have had in china, particularly in recent months is a huge surge in lending for it in january, you saw new loan issuance at a record high. $460 billion. brendan: i have a chartered here. >> it is a huge number. that is occurring at a time when the chinese economy is slowing. there is a growing concern that what is already one of the indebted countries in the world becomes increasingly indebted and that debt pile is ultimately not repayable. nonperforming loans. nonperforming loans are loans that have been lent out and the borrower is no longer paying interest and cannot repay the principal. the official number for that in china stands at 1.7% at the end of 2000 seven p recomment to this debate about numbers in china and growth rate. that is the official number.

brendan: i'm brendan greeley.irst, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. he'll of google is on the purge of becoming the highest executive of the public traded company. restrictedcompany stock value at $199 million. former treasury secretary timothy geithner has gotten a credit line from j.p. morgan to help with his new career in private equity. he will use the money to finance .ersonal investment in fund top private equity managers will invest millions in new funds to show investors the interests are aligned. hasbro posted first -- fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates. parkwars in jurassic overcame weakness. business flash for this hour. mark: oil prices will stay low for another decade because of slowing prices in china -- in the china and sales growth. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg's ryan chilcote earlier today in london. there isve to believe a possibility you will not necessarily go back above 100 ever. , and i've genuinely been in the business for far too long. 104

mark: brendan greeley is putting on his gloves as we talk about the battle of the charts. central bank has the largest balance sheet. comparing cointreau major central banks. that is up next. ♪- comparing cointreau betty: welcome back to bloomberg markets, live from london and new york trade this is the european close. it is time enough for our global battle of the charts. we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day, and what they mean for you investors. kicking things off is brendan greeley. i'm here to talk about downward nominal wage rigidity. forget what i just said, because that is a very fancy economics way of saying nobody likes a pay cut. it is very difficult to make wages go down in any circumstance, much easier to negotiate them up. labor markets do not clear. classical economics assumes that in the event of a recession, if only you will a recession go long enough, it will take adjustments to their wages, there will be no unemployment. this is not how it works. the lastxtra data from year. this is 2001, this is 2009. notice that you have some pay

i'm brendan greeley. mark: and i mark barton. this is the european close. going to take you from new york to london and to brussels. european stocks are on a roll, hitting a two week high thanks to better than expected earnings. kamman -- david cameron tries to close the deal to keep the u.k. in the european union. on the: and they are runway and ready to take off. dozens of designers will show off at new york fashion week. but first we go to julie hyman at the market desk for an update on crude oil inventories. crude oil inventories coming out in just the

i'm brendan greeley. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. alix: and i'm alix steel.get to julie hyman at the markets desk we continue to deteriorate. right, julie? julie: yes, and there was not a particular catalyst for this selloff. there did not seem to be anything new that was out in the markets today, so that is findingg investors are unsettling here, especially when the nasdaq is down more than 3% and approaching a bear market. look at the s&p over the course of the day and the lows as it continues to bump along the bottom in the session. also take a look at the breath of the market. if you look at the imap on the bloomberg, all of in

let's start with brendan greeley. crowd of interns at the capital. janet yellen says the outlook for risk is still under -- uncertain and she goes into detail on the downside risk. how that playsat into emerging markets and how it will eventually play into financial conditions in the u.s. and the dollar. also on inflation, something we have been watching, she is looking at survey measures of inflation and sort of wondering whether or not inflation expectations have lost their anchor. i'm thinking back is something we were talking about the last hour which is, is the head properly communicating in the markets? ist i see in the statement perfect communication. janet yellen is looking at the same data and saying she does not see any reason to disagree, so she is not explicitly saying anything. david: does janet yellen have anything to say to you? that you want to hear? david: i want to hear contingency statements. i want to hear if financial conditions were too tight and not in the united states due to some significant c

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm brendan greeley. > live from london, i'm with the an close. brendan: taking influence new york to london to moscow, here's what we're watching. unemployment in the u.k. holds steady in a decade low 5.1% in the fourth quarter but the pressure to raise pay remains eak and we'll look at why. mark: and then shares jumping the most in cole after announcing plans to sell stakes in regional banks and pay as a result were very different at a.b.m. 5 amro. brendan: and what could affect the whiskey market? we'll ask an expert. we're half an hour away from the close of trade in europe. mark, tell us about today's market action and tell us ether i brownsed glenmorangie.

we are joined by gina martin adams and brendan greeley. a couple morning must reads and big charts. stephanie: how about oil, s&p 500 index, i would like to give myself credit. i do consider myself a house optimist. david: you love green. are optimistic long enough, eventually, you are optimistic. david: we will go to carolyn for first word. carolyn: the u.s. is making a show of force around north korea and the wake of a nuclear attack and rocket launch. jets flew through south korea yesterday. u.s. officials say the flight demonstrated the result to maintain stability in the korean peninsula. david cameron is getting closer to a deal over the uk's membership of the european union. he has won the support it and goes of micro -- of angela merkel. they say they will do everything possible to keep them in the eu to a keyeron goes summit tomorrow. president obamawill not be succeeding him in the white house, and he says the american people will not collect donald trump. mr. obama says being president is a serious job and it is not hosting a ta

brendan greeley, break it down. brendan: most forecasters who do not employ the matt miller take umbrella theory of forecasting are looking at 190,000 ads this month. that is not nearly as extreme area at the -- as the 292,000 that we got last year. whoever is sitting next to stephanie, hold her because she will fall out of her chair. there was great weather in december. a lot of the hires that might have been happening in the spring work frontloaded in the spring. -- were frontloaded in the spring. most economists leave the believereplacement rate that 5% unemployment is at about 150,000. stephanie: we are going to create jobs. the weather is better, people are going to go out and get jobs. these are not high paying jobs. does it continue to be deceiving because we need to see wage growth? >> wage growth, from my perspective, is the single most significant thing we are looking for. that tells us the state of employers, in the economy, both domestic and global. it gives us insight as to how tight the labor market is.

i will take on brendan greeley today.m himself from the horrifying loss from earlier this week. ♪ david: this is bloomberg . we have something special, battle of the charts. susan, you are guest judge. brendan greeley, you get to go first. brendan: the great deleveraging. household debt service race euros are at their historic lows. the amount of money people have to pay to service their debt is low as a ratio to their total income. i decided to dig into the numbers, and that split up between everything else. we know this story. here is on morganlander, 2008, things slowly come down. people are paying down on their mortgages, they're not going to get burned again. but these have crossed but although total services are flat, that is rising in student debt. simpler take on what is going on in the oil markets. in yellow, i have the uso, the mainstay oil etf. three times long uso. it out here is the three times short, the inverse philosophy oiles, three times bearish etf. it is almost tripled in the past year as oil has b

brendan: i am brendan greeley. -- markam mark harden barton. european close. ♪ take you from new york to london to moscow in the next hour. here is what we are watching. the oil markets delivered this verdict. russia and saudi arabia not doing anything to drop up rises. mark: inflation u.k. rises to the highest level in a year. brendan: anglo american is selling off its units. we want to hear from the company's ceo. we are a half-hour away from the close of trade. tell us about it.

. ♪ brendan: live from new york city end -- and london, i'm brendan greeley with mark barton.egative rates have become the theme and -- in japan and europe. former treasury secretary larry summers talked about negative rates. he weighed in earlier this morning on bloomberg television. mr. summers: easier money, even if it means a move toward negative rates, tends to be stimulative. you can look at places where there are a lot of doctors and you can see there are a lot of people who are sick and can conclude hospitals hurt people, or you can think people are in hospitals because they are sick. ratesk we have negative because of some deep issues in our economies, set of issues and arguments i have talked about, when i talked about secular stagnation and having to do with overinvestment. inclined to regard the monetary policy as a response to the problem rather than a cause of the problem. time, i do think the central macro economic issue for all of us going forward is that a large part of what monetary policy can do, it has done and certainly in japan and europe and perhaps on a

i am mark barton with brendan greeley.0, which was three quarters of a percent drifted as the day progressed. it looks like it will close 6/10 of 1%. i'm disappointed with russia and saudi arabia in that they secret in their not so meeting to freeze production. oil stocks fell. after two days of gains, 6%, the since 2011,day gain stocks look like they will finish the tuesday session. anglo america, the volatile stock in the day down by 8%, finishing by 1.5%. the fourth year of losses for the minor. they will cut costs pulling out of coal and iron ore. they are focusing on material with better demands. this was the company that was cut to junk yesterday by miners, the first u.k. to achieve that distinction. they want to cut their debt from $12.9 billion. moody says that will be of theatic the cousin following commodity price. what a run it has been. since the 20th of january, shares are up 70%. it is a binary move when it comes to anglo american. europe's biggest power play up nine percent, one of the big gainers, 85% by th

i'm brendan greeley. time for look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now.f directors word is split over competing offers according to people with knowledge of the matter. both companies have support from at least four of their 13 directors. it's a test case to see how much to hand is willing to open its economy. he agreement is expected at the end of the month. groupon shares are on the move, searching for a second straight day after significant investment by alibaba. they by 5.6% stake, making it the fourth largest shareholder in the website that has lost 80% of its value since going public. those shares are down about 50% over the last 12 months. boeing and lockheed martin have lost their chance to be the pentagon's choice to northrop grumman that is now going to build a heavy bomber. the company can still pursue the dispute in court. business flash update. apollo global management agreed $6.9y adt today for about billion. apollo plans to combine them with protection one, a home security company they already own. shares are trading up by about 53%. for mo

brendan greeley is here. brendan: i was told there would be a dance party. i are bringing in enda curran from hong kong so he and i can spend the time talking about the irish economy, as we do. and with us in the flesh, luis keely. first, vonnie quinn. vonnie: after months of the iowa caucuses. still, on the question whether top supporters will show up tonight. for the democrats, hillary clinton has a slightly over bernie sanders. sanders is counting on young voters to help him score an upset. releasing oneare into thousand pages of information about the deadly amtrak crash last may. there may not be an explanation as to why the train was going twice the speed limit when it derailed in philadelphia. the crash killed a people and injured more than 200. the engineer does not call -- the engineer does not recall what happened. -- expectations for the talks are low. the two sides will not be negotiating directly with each other. thatl needs 24 hours a day global news, 24 hours a day. i am vonnie quinn. ramy inocencio now on the market spirit ramy: futures are in

mark: i'm here in london with brendan greeley of course in new york. it is 4:10 in london. two banks making lots of eadlines today, credit is on the announcement it will sell back stakes in regional banks to increase capital. and a.b. amro announced a 32% drop in fourth quarter stocks. and you're senior analyst is covering banks for bloomberg intelligence and jonathan joins us now. are shareholders breathing a huge sigh of relief of this simplified group structure that was announced today. jonathan: yes, they are. i was actually at the breakfast about 15 years ago and as far back as then the capital structure and relationship for switch guarantee was something people weren't comfortable with so clearly the positive reaction is that they finally, even the e.c.b. wasn't happy and they finally addressed one of the biggest issues that weighed on the stock but the underlying results were pretty good and i think the signal of strength and the outlook saying they're going to pay a cash dividend this year has been taken well. mark: what are the key drivers going forward because the

i am brendan greeley. here is a we are watching -- the markets soaring higher.added more than 5%. now approaching $31 a barrel. the fed minutes came out an hour ago, boosting markets even more. the minutes show policymakers believe turmoil in the market is posing a rising risk to the u.s. economy. apple takes a stand, refusing to help federal investigators on that the iphone of the san bernardino shooter. how will this impact apple's business? we are one hour from the close of trading. stocks are soaring. julie hyman has the latest. where are we? hlie: we are at the

wait, meantime, while we i want to bring in from the hill, brendan greeley was there all day yesterdayonitoring and analyzing her testimony in front of the financial services committee. give me the biggest take away. review again the biggest takeaways from yesterday at what might we hear today that's new? brendan: for almost all of us, what got her attention was janet s admission that what's going on in the market had an effect on the real economy. she talked about lower equity effect.aving an she talked about tighter credit conditions particularly for people with lower credit scores. that has an effect on borrowing and those are the most likely to spend and she talked about weak exports with a strong dollar and it adds up to an actual number. up private domestic final demand so she is looking at demand in the u.s. without exports. this is not affected by the strong dollar and that growth declined a little bit. it did not go as much in the last quarter. what she is saying is that of markets look bad, it's not just that somebody in greenwich have a bad quarter, it has an effect on the r

brendan greeley is here. brendan: i was told there would be a dance party.an from hong kong so he and i

brendan greeley asked about the real substance of the oil freeze deal. were that russia and saudi arabia were not going to increase out that it anyway and the last 15 months, it has always been nothing serious is going to happen unless you have saudi arabia, iran, and russia. sign iransolutely no is going to do anything. thatsent out signals today what they have been saying for the last month's we've got sanctions lifted, we've -- we are going the other way. really the best opec can come up with is a freeze must work the market wants to see a cut, so this could be bearish. brendan: it does seem like the first step is to figure out how to talk to each other. are we looking at the possibility that russia and saudi arabia have opened munication channels and have recognized they have the same interest? is that something? it is a little something. it is a fair point that you make. delegationigh level in 2015 from saudi arabia visiting russia. the king is going over next month and they are talking. russia has softened their position a little bit because as rec

we're also joined by brendan greeley. scarlet: give us your take away from listening to this three hour testimony. brendan: i heard a lot of back-and-forth about the mechanics of negative interest rates. it's something analysts have been talking about and a lot has happened in japan and europe and they got down to the detail of it. the interest paid on excess reserves at the fed and how that would work -- one thing that janet yellen said is that they were not yet completely certain it. there were still some doubt over whether that was legally possible given the 2006 that orders they pay interest on excess reserves and she declined to answer whether the fed was looking into it. there was real talk about the mechanics of how that would work at the other thing that jumped out of the is a discussion about the hugest -- discrepancy in unemployed rates between white families and african-american families. that's something the fed does not have much power over but it was interesting when our greed of texas asked if she would cons

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good morning, i am brendan greeley.the route that set the nasdaq to its lowest level in october 2014 is deepening. oil also resumed its slide today. chief executive of the world's largest energy trader says low crude prices could persist for a decade. voters in the nation's first presidential library -- primary heading to the polls. we will have more after this weakens contentious republican debate. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. bad news on both sides of the atlantic. isie: the market selloff deepening. if you look at the three major averages, we have the nasdaq leading the

greeley isrendan there. what did you take away and what does janet yellen need to deliver today? brendanly surprised by the sophistication of some of the members of congress and what they asked janet yellen. were asking on the interest of excess reserves. it is how they manipulate the interest rate right now that is relatively new. it may prevent them if they ever need this tool from moving into negative interest rates. there is a lot of back-and-forth. janet yellen said, you are congress, you tell me. is ai looking for today little more elaboration. one thing she said in her prepared remarks yesterday, which is answering the question, does terminal in the markets affect the economy? take a listen. >> financial conditions in the u.s. have become less supportive of growth. with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar. these developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity in the labor market. although declines in longer-term rates and will prices provide some