johnson comes out for brexit. the wall street journal european addition saying that london now backs brexit, and that independent headline "out for himself," saying that boris jensen is moving against the prime minister, david cameron, who after all did come back from brussels with a deal. a special agreement for the u.k. that is the buzz about the whole shenanigans in terms of the brexit. claire: boris johnson is campaigning to leave the e.u., even though debbie cameron managed to get concessions from other e.u. leaders. seen in the be daily telegraph, the paper he often writes for. it is also known as the "tory -graph" for many. he will be taken as a green light for federalism. he says britain needs to be supportive of its allies, but follow the advice of winston churchill, which is about europe, be interested, be associated, but do not be absorbed by your. -- by europe. by borise other quotes johnson is, "do not hug the skirts of the nurse in brussels." critics are saying cynically that he is just out for himse

this goes back to the brexit debate.eing everything -- stoxxy -- stocks, europe, and oil. jack lew would never mention this in any interview. february, record low, we come up with improvement, and we just rolled over on the edge of that as well. that is on the mind of the secretary, and david westin as well as they look at international events and how they adapt to jack lew's united states of america. here is the secretary. lew: i am hopeful this will be a g-20 where we take the commitment that we got in the for countries to refrain from competitive devaluation and push it a little bit, and have that be something that is heard outside of the meeting room, but to reassure the world that that is a commitment taken seriously. david: what can we hope to see in the communique out of these meetings that goes beyond that? is, lew: what is different these last months have made clear that weakness in demand globally is a problem that cannot be solved just by everyone looking to the united states. i have been telling my counterpar

the eu's brexit talks continue today.in is weighing in on the debate over whether britain is better off inside or outside the eu. earlier today, ba systems' chairman spoke to guy johnson. >> being part of europe is much more than an economic story. we have strong defense relationships with europe. by being together, we can come it to schemes and developments and important article things that make the defense argument a better argument. i think we have to recognize that our security is much more than the physical security. cyber security is something we are all under threat four. guy: do the general public find that easy to understand? blackjacks flying across our skies from russia, that is something you see on the front page of the newspaper. >> i think we all understand that. there is a strong group to be in in an increasingly difficult world. the security argument is one that i think is made. leave europe, there is indeed a possibility that the scottish discussion may reemerge. if scotland were two separate from the res

and does a brexit or threat of a brexit change your view on the european recovery?ere's a couple things. i am quite positive on the eurozone. i'm very skeptical of more quantitative easing. it took draghi a long time to get the first through. if you look at the eurozone, manufacturing pmi, for seven months, the eurozone manufacturing has been expanding at a better pace than the united states, right, if we compare it out ism. as for a brexit, it reminds me of what happened with the scotland referendum. it's a lot of talk. it's really interesting. it would be a complete disaster if it happened and i don't think it's going to happen. >> jason, it's worth noting that you haven't always been negative on the u.s. economy. we had a bet two years ago who would raise rates first, the fed or ecb. i said the fed, he said the ecb, he owes me dinner. >> very good. >>> we've only got about a minute or so left. let's highlight the main things we're watching today. for me, it's sterling, which has fallen in one of its worst days. 1.3% or so. 1.6% down, apologies. 1.4165. sa sara, a

he is talking about the brexit. he says brexit would impact banks.e is hoping they would stay within the eu, because brexit would trigger a period of great uncertainty. docs oning growth and the expectations. not only japan but europe. for it comes asian let's bring in enter perry -- let's bring in andrew terry. thank you so much for coming in. when you look at markets, one day, they're almost crashing, the next they are up 5%. are we going to the use to this motility? we're in a world where markets become -- that is no surprise when we have interest rates at 0% or negative, because that creates a big denominator problem. , or interest rates move when you are dividing it by smaller number, it can -- this year is a time when we have had people challenging central-bank policy. an unconventional central-bank policy exactly working. the measures have not worked. francine: markets are rallying on the petitions on more from central banks. what you're describing is extreme he volatile and a tough environment for investors. if things go down 5% and up 5%, yo

as boris joins the brexit bandwagon.ervousness in the market surrounding that split in the conservative party. manus: will get a nice bounce in equity. i think that the u.k. story is almost idiosyncratic, whatever sterling volatility you have. but you have money coming out of the yen. got the rise of a half percent in london. you are seeing the shanghai market ramp up a little bit higher despite those nerves. anna: a little bit of money coming up from a bee foods. this is the diverse bit of business. they're talking about their number sing that half of their adjusted eps is expected to be slightly lower. they were saying that the underlying trading outlook would be unchanged. manus: are going to talk to them very shortly but the underlying pretax profit comes in at 1.2 billion euros. roseet interest margin eight basis points. they say a gradual rise in the dividend ratio toward nevada which is 15% payout ratio. anna: we will be speaking to the ceo in a few minutes time. never change is standing by with the details. has f

the media is talking about the risks of brexit.ave 25 percent of the population who wants to lead, 25% who wants to stay in the middle ground is where the battle will be fought. you do not have a clear voice yet. vonnie: you don't consider boris johnson to be a clear voice on the opposite side of david cameron? >> david cameron has had his hands behind his back he goes he has not been able to say these are the benefits because he has to negotiate with the rest of europe. now that he's got that come i think we will get something much more articulate and clear. in europe.l stay sayinge have seven $1.20. if the vote goes the way of the leave campaign, how much further could the pound fall against the dollar? with thed not disagree consensus. you will see a significant selloff. at $1.55.e things you are creating jobs, you see a much stronger sterling if it wasn't for the brexit risk. you pose the question with brexit. mark: you will close out the rest. we have seen the declines. >> you do have clear risks with the brexit. it will be a

just in time for brexit. we're also joined by atlantic equities banking analyst christopher wheeler. you're almost on every day because every day there is something new and something bad in the banking sector. we also heard from -- saying brexit would not have a big impact on the bank, because they are skewed toward asia. how worried are you overall about brexit and the impact it can have on banks? i find it crazy that the mayor of london that has all the banks, this is the city that has the most to lose if this country leaves the u.k., he has come saying, guys, we should leave. >> the big problem is some of the really high profile banks who based or headquartered their headquarters in london. goldman sachs, credit suisee. se. and the problem of having a passport across the whole of europe. if you go out of thank -- out youhe e.u. or the u.k., headquarters somewhere else. there is no doubt there is a great risk of people in business moving away from the city. francine: on standard chartered, we knew it would

brexit, brexit, and more brexit for this week. thank you, charles newsom.p next, the shanghai slump. that has certainly been the story so far. we have seen some retreat to save havens. though the shanghai composite is down by 2.9%. manus: here we are. monthn is having its best since 2008. u.s. equity futures are also indicated a bit lower. more to come from anna and i. ♪ manus: the sug -the shanghai composite is it a 15 month low. anna: ireland faces a political instability. loses itsalition majority and we look for bond market reactions. anna: dead wrong. warren buffett's take on the economic pessimism dominating the u.s. presidential campaign. manus: welcome to "countdown." prime minister any. anna: i am anna edwards. does this translate to a weakness in the european opening mark critz? -- opening markets? dow -- paris is of 1%. 8/10 we have had the best month since october 2008. money is coming out of equities and going into the yen. leonardo dicaprio has won his oscar. what more could you want in a monday morning? anna: let's talk about some breaking ne

we talk brexit next. pulse." ♪ fran: welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. we are getting breaking news out of u.k. gdp. it is in line with what was expected. the economy grew 0.5%. that is matching the estimates. if you look at the breakdown, everything is in line with expectations. private consumption a little bit weaker. government spending a little bit higher. now let's head to mark barton for a market reaction on those u.k. gdp figures. mark: sterling down for a fourth consecutive day against the dollar. this week, it has fallen by 3.4%. sincerst four-day decline february 2009. we did another survey today. economists say that voting to leave the eu would increase the you k's chance of falling into recession. they say the probability of a slump sparks to 40%, compared to 13% risk predicted in the most recent monthly poll. this is a great chart showing sterling against the dollar. we are just below 1.40. 1.3924. on march 10, 2009, we fell to 1.3753. this is 2001.

they think a brexit could harm britain's economy. lots of city firms, big banks have come out and have said it would be negative for britain's economy. of course, there are, also, for example, hedge funds that have complained about too much regulation from brussels and they would see a brexit as a positive thing but they're in the minority. brent: brigit, thank you very much. to some of the other stories making news around the world. indian forces have ended a three-day siege of a government building in the disputed kashmir region, leaving three militants dead. the group a convoy of soldiers before taking refuge in the building. five soldiers and a civilian were killed. the libyan army has claimed a series of victories against islamist fighters in and around benghazi, taking control of several districts and a seaport. rival governments and militias have been battling for control in libya since the ouster of moammar gaddafi five years ago. india has destroyed fishing boats. the vessels came from the philippines, vietnam and myanmar. m

pound brexit causing the a lot of problems today. its lowest level against the years.in over seven other partynd the essential to the debate, the mayor of london, boris johnson. how influential could his endorsement of leaving the e.u. end up being? reporter: it's finally we've got that decision late last night with 100 journalists surrounding of johnson, the mayor london, charismatic and influential mayor of london, and really, it is to some, a surprise that he has come out on campaign. apparently, according to british papers, he was wooed by the aciddualy offered the job of foreign secretary or home secretary. would he influence voters? we're already seeing some findings, apart from the fact that it may have played a part in the fall of the pound today, a possible brexit and polls i should point out are divided and who will win the 23rd of june referendum, the inners or outers but there is no doubt that boris johnson is influencing people. seeing apparently a third of people saying that the fact that boris johnson is saying he will

what people are concerned about is brexit.ave plenty more on brexit and g-20 and a potential a court or not on currencies. stay with bloomberg. "surveillance" with tom keene is next. ♪ v francine: takes a stand. stimulus has been -- finance ministers gather in shanghai. china's not done yet as they say china still has room for more easing. and apple versus the federal bureau of investigation. the tech giant lays down the argument that -- as microsoft and -- begin to back their rival. i'm

what do you talk about with brexit? it was interesting, talking about people postponing investment decisions or consumer spending. that will be the real risk as we run into june the. it will be this time of instability. we will see investments plus pound. the u.k. has large accounts which rely on foreign investment inflow. forthcoming,not then inevitably that does suggest that sterling will continue to remain under pressure. underlying wife -- why we will talk about these levels this millennia terms of cable which is just north of 135. that seems to be a level that will be seeing sooner rather later. 130?: could we break it didn't seem that extreme. jeremy: it doesn't now. those only in the middle of the week. in a sense, we have moved a long way. surely sterling is looking at its lowest but it is the weight of fast money still suggesting we want to stand aside until there is some clarity. the risk if we delay -- that could cause further pain is for a sterling is concerned. manus: this is monumental. i've shown as a cou

sterling extends its drop as labor prepares to unveil its position on brexit. will declines take the euro with it? the latest casualty over the commodity crunch. this is bloomberg's "surveillance" in london. i'm francine lacqua. tom, this compounded by the brexit debate and then the blackrock comments. the markets are not ready for the hike. tom: it is a stew. it is a stew of news. you're right, francine. there is a negative tilt to it. standard chartered really took me back. i know you talked to chris wheeler within the hour. what did he say francine: he said these are banks going through huge restructuring. he mentioned specifically china. it took a leg lower today. it is going to be that much more difficult. let's get to our first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: a boost from the business communlt. 36 chairman say it will be best for the economy if the u.k. stays in the e.u. leaving the union would deter investment, threaten jobs and put the economy at risk. rebel groups in syria have until friday to sign on to a partial cease-fire. the u.s. and russia agr

apple, privacy and the brexit debate.what he had to say. >> we are watching this is wishing closely. we come back to taking back the security and privacy of our customers data very seriously. as we said, customers owning the data. we want to be a trusted stewart. >> you are so prevalent in being hit the oil situation. bring it back to the cave for me . london, used to live there. what do you think about the exit situation -- the brexit situation? mark: it is an important issue for the british public. we employ over 14,000 people. it is really important for the u.k. to be part of a single market, because we think that is good for all you keep this is. having the u.k. as a part of a reform to eu is in the best interest of the u.k., but that will be decided by the british public. youre you cannot -- are optimistic about the sentiment? >> they're working at different clock speeds. in the u.s., we think the economy is very strong. in europe, we contingency growth there, moderate growth did they are making good progress. see th

guy: why is brexit worth a pound?ainly does imply in the event of brexit both euro and the pound should weaken precisely because of that. from that point of view when we were approaching the eu summit we were arguing that the europeans have a lot to lose and the refugee crisis is playing into cameron's hands in the sense that europeans could fear the brexit could become the catalyst with the suspension of schengen. guy: let's say brexit -- who knows. this story is not going away still. with a more long-term position, could i see the pound bounce strongly? >> sure. we do see the weakness is a temporary development and we are keen buyers of the pound against and certainly europe could drift lower and if you think of what has been happening in the markets and how they are approaching that it does feel a lot of negatives already in the price. crisis amonge the other things as a touch on how long it could drop and that has dropped is about 15%. if you bring that up to the brexit fears we have about 80% of those highs which

brexit uncertainty takes its toll. let's get to mark barton.arco uncertainty -- mark: uncertainty -- just three of its peers falling against sterling today. most are rising for a third consecutive day. this is the chart of the day. sterling has sunk to a 2009 low against the dollar. it has fallen between -- it has fallen below 140 for the first time since 2009. yesterday, the 2.7% drop in the pound against the dollar on monday and tuesday was the biggest since february 2007. 29 out of 34 economists see the pound sinking to 1.35 or below within a week of a vote to leave the eu, if the british do vote for that eventuality. since we have not seen 1985. sterling will not recover from that rate within three months it seven see the pound falling below 1.20 immediately after a brexit vote. todayer than where it is here to goldman sachs saying it should fallen as low as 1.15. that is roughly 20% lower from where we are today. we have seen it before in history. back in 1981 when the economy was mired in a recession, sterling fell by 25% in 1992. intain

is the brexit risk premium exaggerated? rob: there does seem to be a serious risk of brexit.is something we are arguing for months that investors need to take notice of. events over the weekend are potentially raising the risk. because of boris johnson. but it is actually now having a referendum date, the issue is a lot more tradable than it was. alix: the possibility the so-called brexit continuing to weigh on the pound today. which is near its lowest level against the dollar since 2009. addressing lawmakers in london today, bank of england governor mark carney said the central bank is doing contingency planning. mr. blanchflower: this has enhanced uncertainty. so this will have a big impact on the markets. mark carney recognize that and said they will make plans. but this is obviously a global event and might well have an impact on global financial markets. this has raised uncertainty in the world's biggest economy. fifth alix: six months ago, we were talking about the possibility of a rate hike for the bank of england. seems like a hike is totally off the table this year.

that is not all brexit risk? brexit risk i s obvious in the pound.ek: from the middle of december we were on short-term regression models. that tells us where currency should be based on the day-to-day variables. it was perfectly in line until mid-december. cameron stood up and basically handed a deal could be done in february. and i'm eagerly the pound our models.om there wasn't one stage of 4% to 5% risk premium -- there was at one stage. been broadly stable over the last months and with brexit still there, if these conditions continue, i think we are about to lurch lower again. anna: how much of aroldis f-- of a role does fdi play here? we have use that nicely to cover current account deficit. do you think we will see that ebbing? derel that is a crucia one. up until the third-quarter of last year, the fdi covered 'sarly entirely the u.k. current account deficit. that is great financing, the best type of financing you can have for your deficit. but ultimately it makes sense to think that in the run into brexit, the fdi flow could have dried up. an

council meeting today and tomorrow, which brexit brexit will be discussed -- to keep the u.k.. that has the potential to erode confidence. although the ecb would not want to link stimulus to that debate, it is concerned about the possible consequences. guy: great stuff. thank you very much, indeed. . paul gordon joining us on a friday for it those -- out of frankfut. we will watch very carefully what comes out of brussels. stay with us. bloomberg "surveillance" is up next. ♪ tom: the prime minister travels to brussels in search of change. cameron says there still is no guarantee on a non--brexit. nestle, they turn out for datable cash flow. they turn out butterfingers. thisll speak to nestle in hour. it is bloomberg "surveillance," live from

earlier we talked to the ceo and asked him brexit could impact it. >> we don't think brexit has any impactt all on bunzl. there isn't a whole lot of cross-border flow of products. >> weak science a good thing, right? >> weakness, if you're looking at the overall results you're exactly right. if you look at 2016, you take the spot rate where is we are today, it will have a positive impact for bunzl. >>> now, brexit would lead to a decade of uncertainty. that's the exclude of the uk civil servants which warns of potential impact on markets, investment and the pound. this weekend, uk prime minister david cameron challenged the outcome after europe leaving. writing in the telegraph, he called it, quote, gamble of the century. now, the lead campaign can ahead two more to their roster because terry smith and edmund poole are backing it. >>> hi, everybody. i was just going to read your mails out there. yes, yellow is the color of the day today. i feel like a canary i guess there are worse things to feel like. g-20 potential bankers have added brexit to the list. the europe mean commissioner wa as

i want to ask you first about brexit. said it would be a bad thing for euros and a bad thing for european business. >> when david cameron opened the pandora's box of the referendum, he made a huge mistake. we are seeing today the result of that mistake. i am in favor of the u.k. inside europe, provided they are playing the game of the union. more today, they are much selfish and it is breaking down the eu with a lot of people wanting each one to have different stages. is u.k. willsult have a very specific state, there is no eu because of them, i would prefer they go on their own and it will be much worse for them than for the european union. .> talk of the brexit you have been vocal about this in the past, much in favor of staying. how are you feeling about that right now? how do you gain this out over the next few months as the rhetoric heats up? >> it is going to be a close call. it was looking much more likely that the vote would be to stay boris and toore the arena. boris is an incredibly charismatic human being. he i

how many times we mentioned the word brexit?nna: at 11:15, we hear from the smb governor on monetary policy in the euro. this afternoon -- manus: it is all about order -- all about oil. anna: how will brexit risk impact the u.k.'s rates? ♪ anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." reportediss three has reported netas income in the quarter rising $938 million. the company also announced a new chief executive officer as of july 1. the first for your loss in almost two decades as the said thees trader price of coal may remain low for an extended. -- an extended period. shares tumbled over the last six months as resource prices fall. extended trading new york after forecasts for the current quarter missed estimates. the maker of wearable health devices expected sales between $420 million and $440 million this quarter. fitbit has lost about 45% of its value this year. the former jpmorgan trader who became known as the "london began when his unit making huge losses in 2012, says bywas "instructed repeatedly managers to execute the stra

again, it's not just brexit weighing on the u.k. and europe. we're seeing that sterling move quite a bit lower. that's giving a boost to the yen, always raising concerns for japanese equities. the main australian market off. >> lots of news this morning. shares in standard charter have dropped to the bottom of the stoxx 600. the em focus bank saw underlying profit before tax slumping by a whopping 84%. that's amid a sharp rise in loan impairments. this is what would be the lender's worst result since 1998. standard charter confirmed it will not pay out a final dividend, and it won't reward most of its senior staff either for the 2015 performance. so overall, you're looking at a $4 billion charge on them having to write down the value of their loans, a $1.5 billion loss in total. maybe, even with bill winters, who took over just this past year, describing 2015 as very poor. maybe one of the bigger surprises was just how poor areas like the indian market fared, the commodity related slump, how much of an impact that's had. >> absolutely. so much

we have to stress that brexit should be avoided.ertainty is already rippling through markets. our next guest released a report saying a vote for a brexit could have huge consequences for all subclasses. elizabeth martins at hsbc in london. huge consequences in what direction? negative for all asset classes? not quite all >>, but it really depends. you have two cases. reaction one initial ofthe vote and then a period two years of uncertainty while we negotiate what the exit would look like. big shock and uncertainty over two years and then after that, everything depends on what the u.k. can do in terms of striking trade agreement come in terms of which companies followthrough. -- follow through. it depends on all of those factors. matt: over here in the u.s., the only -- we only hear from academics, politicians, investors who are pro-eu and not voicing leave interests come other than boris johnson. do you have any of the elite rooting for next it from the eu other than boris? >> some people have been that the story has not been as vo

a brexit could put the eu economy in jeopardy, as well. europe will lose 13% of its population, 15% of its wealth, and 14 billion euros. that is what britain was earmarked to contribute to the 2016 budget. >> ok, we're going to look at the stock markets. we have seen a mixed bag of trading over in the united states so far this session, with only the nasdaq making it above the flat line. this hour, in the past hour or so, the nasdaq has come off its previous session highs. it is only ever so slightly above the flat line. the dow jones industrial average and the s&p 500 are actually accelerating the losses. energy shares are coming under pressure stateside due to a different oil prices. retailers are also coming under pressure as the department store nordstrom has released a weak forecast. in europe earlier, we thought the indices finishing up in negative territory, as well. the overall price put a damper on energy star. but it was a strong week for european stocks. finishing up his best week since january of 2015. it's best week in more tha

deal to try and avert a brexit.ce then we have heard london mayor boris johnson saying he is going to support the lead camp. cap 40 unchanged at the moment. -- cac 40 unchanged at the moment. 9/10 -- up .9%. let's take a look at the pound because this is a trade we have been keeping an eye on. you can see the pound down against the dollar. dropped the most in a month after boris johnson came out saying he would support the lead camp. we have seen the pound gain the most in two weeks after david cameron got that deal in brussels. having a look at euro versus the pound, the pound weakening versus the euro. the euro at sterling volatility highest if you look at six-month volatility at its highest since 2011. britain's position in the eu going for now. looking at the stocks we are watching today. hsbc is a big one. you can see there, down almost 2.6%. down in hong kong earlier as well. this is after the europe's biggest bank reported a fourth quarter loss. analysts had been expecting a profit. this report comes against

votes to leave the european union -- britain's brexit debate. he expects britain's competitiveness to take a hit in u.k.ou -- a hit if the votes to leave the european union. >> what that could mean for our competitiveness -- from a pure business perspective, a brexit would not increase our competitiveness. markus: it was an upbeat start to the year for the french jobs market. the number of job seekers dropped in january by nearly 28,000. the jobless total remains above 3.5 million. near record highs. january was a good sign, but it is too soon to speak of a john -- solid jobs recovery. one month in over the number of registered jobseekers does not mean there will be a big decline. there must be several months in a row of decline to really get to a trend of improvement in unemployment figures. if we want a reversal, we blessed with for several months of decline -- we must wait for several months of decline. markus: the french government is trying to crack down on employment fraud, specifically targeting the illegal use of posted workers. there ar

how will brexit risk influence the boe?f --e the head saidtime you were on, you you are expecting a bit of a bounce back as a result. what did yesterday due to your thinking? >> that certainly changed it. i would highlight in the short-term. if you go back to friday, you see what sterling did ahead of the deal that was done in europe. sterling actually rebounded strongly. it was monday again that it was reversed. the key point is uncertainty. at the moment, we have uncertainty. paribas, the market shorts sterling. one of the biggest shorts since 2008. remember, the market is not going into this event with neutral positioning. it has a strong buy. there is a weakness as far as sterling is concerned. therefore, the buyer is more likely to rally on positive reduction of uncertainty. downside couldch there be, i guess is the question some people could be asking. we have a negative price going in. the market is positioned negatively. if you look at what is happening in terms of the volatility story, you can see clearly the marke

anna: you say you would survive if there was a brexit.this an opportunity for ireland to attract more investment from the u.s.? >> there is no doubt there would be some benefit in terms of companies moving to us. we are not focused on that because we have done our assessment, we have done our analysis, and we have come to the conclusion that the best possible outcome for ireland would be for britain to remain with ireland within the european union to continue that partnership that we have developed over the past 40 years. it has enabled the countries to work together very closely and to help to bring peace and stability to northern ireland. manus: thank you very much for joining us this morning, dan mulhall. anna: that will do it for "countdown." up next, "on the move." ♪ manus: good morning. 7:30 in london. i am guy johnson. oil is continuing to rise. that is definitely the story of the last 48 hours. as the narrative really changed that much? correlations between oil and equities are breaking down. we will talk about that a little bit l

assets in dented brexit fears?ndan: it is time now for the global battle of the charts where we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. normally i am competing, but this time, i'm posting. you can check this out on the bloomberg by running the function on your screen. i'm joe weisenthal. we are going to mix it up today. let's start with rendon. what have you got as a competitor? we are looking at the trade weighted dollar versus the dollar spot. then we look at trade weighted dollar, it's a little higher than the dollar spot because we are looking at our trading partners. here is what i did. josh levy and we built a new basket of currencies. here are 12 emerging market currencies. i will share that basket with you. when you look not just that trade weighted, when you are looking at just developing markets, this is what the dollar looks like. it's so much worse than spot or trade weighted. our currency, your problem. joe: can you beat brendan? mark: the big questio

government will change if we have a brexit.re is a referendum, and if we have a brexit, the position of u.k. government debt and of sterling will change and will weaken. and it will be more risky than it was before. manus: we like to deal in fact the bloomberg. you will stay with me. the rest ofe for countdown. for more on the conversation, to into bloomberg radio. our colleagues on first work europe will be speaking to the institute of directors, as well as the confederation of british industries. that is a 9:45 london time. here is your day ahead. in this hour, the governor of the people's bank of china speaks at an event in beijing. they said they would raise the reserve ratio for some banks it thinks glenn to quickly. retail sales out of the that kingdom. this afternoon, we get a reading of inflation in the u.s.. the also hear from cleveland present. then it is eurozone chief economist. more, after this break. ♪ manus: 6:21 in london. the people's bank of china, as it was telling you at the start of the show, then determine

their belief is that a brexit would deter investment and threaten jobs.arlier today, we asked the ceo of the london stock exchange for his take. >> it's important that the certainty of continued job creation and the performance that we've seen in the last few year that certainty can continue. i think it's also a message for europe, and i do believe that were the uk to leave the challenge for the european union would be immense. >> moving on from that, the power saying one-month low against the u.s. dollar, the sterling coming under quite a bit of pressure. the boris johnson is became the highest supporter of the campaign. remember, he's a conservative, right. johnson declared his backing of a british exit along with six other cabinet minister. >> i decided after a huge amount of hearttaking, i did not want to do anything -- the last thing i wanted is to go against david cameron or the government. but after a great deal of heartache i don't know what i'll be doing -- that leave or whatever the term is called. i think that is definite definite, because i wa

when you look at the brexit, the pound is heading down.is these expectations since the scottish vote. it's not going to get better. john: not until june the third at some of the way. the middle ofat november, sterling was 7.5% higher than where it is now. most of what's happened since then has been neutral for the u.k. or positive. we would put most of that down to the worries around the referendum. now we know what it is. francine: we were talking before about brexit and we don't understand what the question will be. voters will answer the question if they want to leave or stay on an emotional level or whether it will be based on facts. we have polls we can trust. stephanie: we are going to have a much narrower vote and people would have predicted. i would push back on the expectations. it will be weaker going in. i wonder if it will bounce back afterwards. there is a risk. the uncertainty will not be resolved. even if we vote to stay in this time, it will be quite close will make it likely that another conservative leader or future prime

shahab: that is an important aspect of the brexit-pound story.t mean for policymakers? dealing not in 1985? shahab: in the case of the u.k., if we take away the idea of a making thehat is pound fall, in every other way, policy makers would be happy about the pound falling. the government has been criticized for not helping to rebalance the economy. exports and investments are still weak. a weaker pound certainly helps from that aspect. and as far as the central bank goes, the weaker pound helps to generate inflation. so no one is going to fight a weaker pound in my view, unless it is very destabilized. francine: times have changed. this morning must-read from 1985, ronald reagan was president. we don't have those kinds of politicians anymore. if the u.k. leaves the eu, scotland may leave the u.k.. shahab: that is another possibility. investors have to think about that as well. the brexitrmath of decision, there is no guarantee that the u.k. itself -- tom: there is no guarantee. shahab: people also worry about not just the eu itself fragmenting. t

is the risk part of the brexit.t would not be that you have brexit and you still stay in the biggest trading area of the world. negotiateld have to a deal and it is highly unlikely that in such a charged political situation, britain would get anything like what norway has. even the norway deal is worth for britain, far less attractive. if you are in, you can actually be heard in some of your concerns can be addressed. if you are out, there is the reason to address the british concerns. anna: are you modeling this on what would happen on the rest of the eurozone? about atalking confidence shock, a credit shock, or any number of shocks. manus: they say credit would ramp up by 1%. this is the volatility. inside bloomberg today and you look at top u.k., the model anna says in terms of the schocks, we just don't know. this is the personification of risk. >> it is not easy to model that. we simply don't know what happens afterwards. that in itself is a big problem. we would have massive uncertainty. if that were to happen

you will see maybe, some of that cut in brexit.was just a massive repricing in the u.s., i would argue very little. those differentials are what has driven the pound. you look at the ftse 100 and it is actually outperforming. it does not look like there is or themium for yields pound. guy: we have a cabinet meeting today. dealrd: you get an actual for cameron to go out and sell. it is not something that is in the future. it is something that israel now. guy: you think boris johnson has the potential to move markets? richard: absolutely. that is one of the wildcards in this whole thing. how is the cabinet going to react? if cameron gets a deal and comes home and says, we are ready to campaign. is the rest of the cabinet happy? if they are not, those divisions will make for an interesting campaign. guy: what do the notes say? thingd: i would say, the to me that is the one thing you can be relatively sure of is th at no matter how the campaign unwinds, that volatility will remain high, certainly in the currency space. you can also be

vonnie: i want to ask you first about brexit. c.e.o.'uropean got together and said it would be a bad thing for eurozone and european business. do you feel the same way? >> i think when david cameron spoke of the referendum, it he made a huge mistake. we are seeing the result of that mistake. i'm very much in favor of the u.k. inside europe, provided they are playing the game of the union. more today, they are much selfish and it is breaking down the e.u. with a lot of people wanting each one to have a different status. is that u.k.sult statusve a very specific and there is no du because of them, i prefer they go on their own. this would be much worse for them than for the european union. >> talk of the brexit. you have been very much in favor believe,g -- saying i how do you game this out as the rhetoric heats up? >> i think it is going to be a close call. it was looking much more likely the vote would be to stay in before boris and carly fiorina. boris is an incredibly charismatic human being. he has an enormous amount of energy. he is

what kind of scenarios are you running in terms of brexit?o you expect it to happen, or are you relying on the pollsters? if you are modeling what will happen, how bad could it get? erik: in the bank, we spent quite a lot of on it in research. number one, and looks like we will get the vote in june. we think the vote will be tuesday. but it will be a close call. interesting, if you look at the deadline, they are conservatively more sure that the forecasters do stay in. we are publishing here in an hour or two, a quite substantial piece about will happen if the u.k. were to leave. coming through the trade channels and the city of london, we think it could cost u.k. 6% of gdp over time. it is a very substantial point. this is even assuming that the u.k. would go into a situation like norway or switzerland. anna: given the lack of investments? get a lott term, you of turmoil because you do not know what we will get. certainly cameron would have to step down. and osborne. a lot of uncertainty after that. but over time, the investment that the u.k

you said brexit. >> what you are going to see. >> hangman? >> really. >> i'm going because of brexit. >> the london theater, the best. >> i was listening to willfred this morning. what does willfred recommend? go to london. >> up next, cramer's mad dash. let's give you a look at futures. we're set up for a strong, strong open. that is if you own stocks and are not short them more than long. to help pay for her kids' ice time. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time. and 2% back at the grocery store. even before she got 3% back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through. katie used her bankamericard cash rewards credit card to stay warm and toasty during the heat of competition. that's the comfort of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you. >>> we have about six minutes before the opening bell. >> it's monday. >> yes. bank of america has a really interesting kind of really part of this whole moment, which is that they say buy the truckers, but they also upgrade csx. you and i talked about norfolk southern

the pound drops on brexit fears.ut the economy could see far steeper slide if britain votes to leave the eu. don't count of the fed out. kansas city fed president morning that a march hike isn't of the table despite market expectations. we'll talk central banks in the reason why hans is in frankfurt. jpmorgan trading revenue dropped 20% this year amid the global rout. but the bank is gaining share in europe. is this bad news for deutsche bank? we will talk about that during the next hour and a half. we are a half hour with the european market open. let me show you the fair value tech elation we have this mark. fairly flat, i little bit of civility may creeping back into these assets after some fairly big days. you can see london just a little bit higher. let me take you through some of the other assets you need to know about this morning. pound thatg at a is back above1.40 but has gone below that overnight. if you're on the bloomberg, go check it out. it is a great story but where economists see the pound going. doll

once the brexit risk -- the and ifdum happens -- there is no brexit, there's room for sterling to recoverrishaad: what are your forecasts? ever since boris johnson decided campaign, whatve are your thoughts? it is difficult to forecast sterling in the run-up to the referendum. it will be driven by headlines itself, but i think over all it could decline further, perhaps to $1.35, driven by the headlines, but i think it is interesting to note that the markets are still assigning a 30% to 35% possibility of grexit brexit despite the headlines itself. rishaad: let's look at the other current is. euro get any impact? >> it does have an impact, but overall the impact is not dominant for the sterling, meaning a bigger negative for u.k. compared to europe itself. perhaps this explains why the euro-sterling continues to climb even though we see increasing impact on the sterling as well as the euro against the dollar itself. rishaad: this is also contingent on what happens with the dollar itself. economichave clear cut good news coming through from the u.s., signs of inflation, but there are other

partly because of brexit.in the performance in the ftse 100 to sterling, the ftse is up today. able to shrug off the move in sterling. worth also pointing out, this is not just a uk issue. lots of talk over the last 24 hours and over the weekend has been focusing on what this means for sterling and britain. but what does it mean for europe as well if we were to get a brexit or we got closer to the likelihood. europe already weak, could a brexit spark wider mayhem for europe. that would have a big impact on global trade and economics. right now the focus is on the pound, down over 2%. lots still to come out, of course, between now and june 23rd. the biggest development over the weekend, not specifically the terms of the deal that cameron secured but the fact that we have got the referendum confirmed for june 23rd. >> where were you? were you on vacation last week? >> i was on vacation. i was not in london but i was following the news regardless. >> you don't go home for vacation. have you -- you need to travel

is also compounded by brexit. would actually argue that we have already started to see investor fears about brexit, given the sterling against the euro. but yes, we have stabilized in the last few weeks. but the trend over the last two months has actually been significant growth in the downward move, against the euro. and i think that is actually people positioning themselves on the expectation of this referendum going to be difficult. manus: the dollar and sterling call, before i let you off the set, bob parker. toymakers biggest have been talking about a possible merger, according to people familiar with the matter. they had discussions. nejra has the details. nejra: as you say, this is according to people familiar. no details on how the deal might be structured, if it actually happened. as you said, it would bring together the world's two biggest toymakers. andro owns my little pony barbie andich owns hot wheels. mattel actually withdrew the offer for hasbro, some not the first time have talked. it would bring

for that report as the brexit summit gets underway.ext wednesday's deadly bombing turkish capital. 28 people were killed when a car bomb targeted the military in ankara. a syrian national was linked to syrian kurdish initial -- militias carried out the bombing. the leader of the group has denied involvement and has warned ankara against retaliating with ground action. a blast heard across the city. emergency services rushed to the scene to recover the injured and dead. passersby helped clear the route to allow ambulances through. cctv footage caught the moments on camera. authorities believe a car packed with explosives parked by a convoy of military buses. hour at a busy junction less than 500 meters from parliament and close to military headquarters. >> this attack was not only bus, at military on the but carried out in an atrocious way without honor. way treacherous and petty against our holy nature -- nation. >> no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but the turkish government has pointed the finger at the ypg. ankara

the brexit battle dominating the headlines today. ♪ >> midnight on saturday, that's when the partialease-fire that the u.s. and russia have agreed upon for syria comes into effect. the announcement came after scores of people were killed in attacks claimed by them islamic state group. the city extremists and al qaeda linked fronts have not been included by the truce. oliver farry reports. oliver: a two-week cease-fire that has the syrian government and the rebels on board. groups on either side will have to put down their weapons by saturday, allowing for humanitarian access to the areas that they control, committing to releasing prisoners. >> russian and american military personnel will jointly define the areas on the map where such future active. the russian military and the us-led coalition will not carry out military operations against them. >> rebel forces must not be allowed to strengthen their positions. opposition groups had earlier given a conditional yes to cease-fire. military action will continue against terrorist groups recognized by the un security council. since the fi