let's stick with the brexit theme.ding to one economist at bloomberg intelligence, uncertainty following a brexit , british exitit -- let'seuropean union talk about potential fallout or benefits of a brexit. and jonlcome nicola moulton from better capital. welcome to the program. if you look at brexit, it must mean for your business that there's a lot of uncertainty, uncertainty that the u.k. economy probably doesn't need. >> there's uncertainty for everybody, not just my business. if we were to leave the european union, that 22 years of not really knowing what we are going. i think the main point really is that the key decision was not to be part of the euro. i did not feel that was the right thing to do. we have now is a trade arrangement largely which is very key and important for the u.k. i think the idea that we are going to go out and renegotiate trade deals around the world on our own is a bit fanciful. representing 20% of the world's gdp is different from representing 3% of the world's gdp. francine: would the

and the european economies if we have a brexit. you have obama speaking out against the brexit. where do you lie? case where arese you envisaging the u.k. stays within the eu? joerg: as far as brexit is concerned, this would have significant implications for the eurozone. the root cause of the debt crisis is not yet solved. in most countries, but it to gdp ratios are markedly higher. this theory would require that the head of states government act on this, implement reforms for example by shifting to brussels or stricter fiscal rules, but a brexit would strengthen the position of anti-european union forces in the european union. inhave the from nationale france, the alternative for germany, and in most other countries, there is emergent antiunion parties, and the government do not dare go for more european integration. but this is needed to solve the debt crisis. when that governments are not able to act, then the pressure on the ecb will increase even further. implication, if the u.k. population were to vote for a brexit. caroline: goldman coming out today, saying they are push

we've seen a little bit of the opposite in brexit. negative is having effect on sterling and it makes for a lot of political noise. that is exacerbating the noise. i'm not sure whether we are doing what we need to do is put it below the carpet. with sterling people archer meeting brexit to the sterling follow. th-- fall out. the main concern is account deficit, at historically high levels. francine: given the possibility of policy mistakes from the fed, or manipulation from china, how do you deal with your investments? a whatold will go up in happens. that is a strong call. intopeople are piling yen. >> well, you're right. policy mistakes are the biggest risk. as a matter of fact, we probably already have had a policy mistake which is the fact that the fed waited too long to raise rates. would nothould take, say, opportunities of what the market is giving us the 11 of february to get closer to home. this is the most volatile quarter since the financial crisis. when it comes to political things, brexit, election cycles in the u.s. at a

greecehe tension between -- brexit -- if you have brexit on one side and the greek exit, the beginningd of the european union and the eurozone. nouriel roubini on bloomberg surveillance earlier. europe, stocksin are rising today, down over the week. europe 600 up by over 1%. banks and insurance are the best performing industries -- industry groups today, the biggest weekly drop for autos since january. banks are down for the fourth consecutive week. the euro against the pound today is lower. it is rising over the week. the weekly winning run sending to its highest level for well over a year. the european close minutes away, i was big to the german deputy finance minister. ♪ show me movies with explosions. show me more like this. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a

what does it mean for brexit? how do you've you and model brexit?it is a very, very important issue and the fact the president is playing in on that, obviously it has the attention of world leaders. brexit is very important, not only for u.k. assets but for european assets more generally. what we have found as we have had about a 12% selloff in trade since the end of last year. ashas recovered by about 2% the market has moved more to the view that we will remain, but this is a critical issue for the british pound and for european personal bonds. francine: basically looking at the chart, looking at pound versus euro, we really do not know what euro would do, if it would also we can a lot further, but i have not seen that much impact on guild. mark: the guild market is -- scott: the gilt market is a little more difficult to figure out. have performed very well there recently have underperformed in the last two weeks, but generally are on par. -- would they be concerned about the state of the economy. wednesday be concerned about the rating? scott: i d

areja: the brexit camp outrage.hey accuse obama of double standards because he is seen as protecting u.s. sovereignty on one hand and interbeing and a political debate. that is not really his own. but it does appeal to this big warning we have seen from the remain camp if britain exits the e.u., our relationships will be damaged, such as china and the u.s. depends on membership of the e.u. francine: the message could not be clearer. u.k.o you model if the were to leave, how much would we lose in gdp? how difficult is it given we do not know what kind of relationships he would have with the u.s. and other partners? james: over the long-term it is extremely hard to understand what the net impact would be. reasonably there would be new agreements forged. the near term damage would be substantial. we would hit -- we have had to your debate of what the world will look like. it is very clear if you want to join e.u. you have to sign up to the premise that you will join the single currency. that is not where we are. leavin

remember, this is a pre-brexit jitters. a glance of what market volatility could be as we get closer to that june 23 referendum. "surveillance." is up next. with at that. we have sunshine in london. ♪ decision day for the fed at brexit looms. has janet yellen been taken hostage by global concerns? is optimistic. investors are not impressed. trump and clinton score big. the front runners extend their leads in the white house race. this is bloomberg "surveillance." with michael mckee new york. it is another busy day. concerns.exit better having an impact on currency. the fed and tomorrow's boj. mike: the

eriod and the brexit vote would be an ideal opportunity.n ipo this week that would price and trade very well. we have seen big blocks in the last two weeks as well. we are in a sweet spot now for the next 2-4 weeks. betty: let's talk a little bit more about specific countries. in particular, brazil. they are facing an impeachment vote. i want to show you a little bit about how investors have been brazil as an emerging market risk. i want to bring up that chart. do we have that chart? they basically shows that local currencies and brazilian bonds have been outperforming other latin american bonds. i want to talk about the risks that you might see or whether or not this is an opportunity for emerging markets here given that this may be resolved soon. needh: in any market, you a stable secondary market and a stable pricing market. q1 globally has been characterized, if you look of the vic's index in the u.s., that's a good way of looking at volatility. pricing bills is challenging. when you have that in the developed markets, you will see an e

and we will talk a little bit about brexit.ur russian oil expert has to go off-site to tell us what putin said. up next, tough and challenging. two words used by the leader of burberry to describe the environment. how his company navigates the current environment. that conversation is coming up next. ♪ francine: we are right on "the pulse". let's get to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: burberry shares have fallen this morning after it said earnings this year will be at the low end of analyst estimates. they said wholesale revenue will drop 10% in the first half of this year. burberry like lvmh is ebbinging to cope with demand in asia and europe. nestlÉ beat analyst estimates led by nescafÉ. sales rose 3.9%. analysts had expected a 3.6% r ise. the first quarter growth rate is the slowest since 2009 as they struggle to get consumers interested in convenience meals. unilever reported first-quarter sales growth in line with estimates and gains in its laundry detergent and personal care unit offset falling prices in europe. unde

will vote in the referendum on the brexit. guy: the brexit story is interesting.e trying to figure out whether this is a dutch related ,rocess or a shout at the eu or whether we can read it into the brexit story. if we can, the numbers for those who want to remain in our quite frightening. -- remain in are quite frightening. >> it is a clear "no" with 32% turnout, but nevertheless, the people who showed up -- more than 60% said no to a treaty between the eu and ukraine. a treaty with ukraine is more than just a vote against european integration. it was also said that during the campaigning that this treaty ford be seen as a start ukraine to start negotiations also to join the eu. that was mainly the reason why people said, no, we don't want this treaty because we don't want more europe. we don't want europe to grow further. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much indeed. i don't want to draw lines between one thing and another because it is dangerous to do so, but it was interesting when we had the attacks and belgium, what happened with the pound. i am n

that might come back to bite us, and brexit. actually, brexit is a european issue.s is about the european project. if brexit occurs i would be worried for the levels that bonds could get it because people could argue the european project is dead. that point? get to it is all been priced into the pound and none of into the euro. : the market should be slightly concerned about that. week, so thebeen a euro should also be week. yields mayheral bond come under pressure as we get closer to the vote. 'sy: this will make draghi job harder. figure negative is slightly worse than anticipated. we talked earlier on about the boj struggling to get the effect that it once had from policy. is can argue mario draghi having a similar problem here. maybe this will make life even more difficult for him. fundamentalist, the bounceback may be stalling. given what is going on with the banks this hasn't been helpful. inflation is a big problem in europe. we haven't hit inflation for some time. that may continue. guy: do you think he is right on the credit channel? that gets through to th

should carney be brexit agnostic? >> well, i think there are always going to be things like election referendums, which tactically affect what central banks should be doing. but i think the area of concern i would have is the lack of strategy at the bank of england, that they don't have a strategy for gradually moving away from these very low interest rates. when something comes along like the brexit referendum, it makes it more difficult for them to make that first rise. but they have some good opportunities in the second half of last year to make the interest rate rise, with the economy going quite well. inflation picking up again, and central banks should take it. i think one of the big criticisms i would make a central banks since the financial crisis is they haven't had a clear strategy for trying to move us back into more normal monetary position. tom: are they precluded from that strategy? this is a polarity of him and david blanchflower. theck of fiscal response in various shades of austerity across the united

>> our basic case is no brexit. the argument for brexit is nonsense and makes it no sense. we are very dependent on europe and london, the u.k. will lose its dominant as a financial center of the world is such an event was to take place. there are massive financial services that trade with europe. we all saw the treasury numbers talking about gdp impacted by leaving the eu. i have not seen an economic argument that supports brexit in any form whatsoever at the moment. hans: how much of his -- how much is it affecting euro-dollar. when you look at euro-dollar, how much of it is fear of brexit wing on it? --waiting on it? weighing on it heavily. the market is telling you that brexit is not an issue. story. an media if you look at the moment, the euro is some 13% undervalued on the ppp basis. we would expect to see some dollar weakness going forward driven more by u.s. interest rates than the brexit story. anna: i was interested to see that ahead of the ecb meeting, we did a survey and they do not see any big moves in the ecb and till september. -- until september. up next, we

the bank rate if there is no brexit and a bank rate in a brexit scenario.we remove the risk, the blue line at the bottom is if we have a brexit. you will not see any height on the cards for a quantum period of time. the firstove brexit, hike is in 2018. seven quarters earlier than the market. that is a huge difference. this is where the real risk is, isn't it? >> we completely agree with that. we don't think there is any way they could raise rates if we had a brexit scenario. they would be very cautious about growth and what will happen to the labor market. no one can really predict the outcome until it happens. even if we do vote to leave, it will take about two years for the full ramifications to be felt. we will be feeling our way. the bank of england cannot predict nor can we. the uncertainty will force them to keep rates low. manus: what did you make of the reason -- there has been a lot of talk around encouraging people to get involved in guilt auctions. ix.ill pull up wb and do itback -- wbix over a space of year today. storming ahead. year to date.

obviously brexit is the week before.f that reverberates, even across europe, that in itself could be -- manus: i had some interesting conversations with people while i was away. they're watching. they don't seem overly interested. they might get a shock. talk to me about jack lew, the treasury secretary, he called on the imf to play more of an aggressive role in policing exchange rate fluctuations. does any of this story play toward yen reversal? >> it is certainly an interesting story. i was reading it coming in and said, he has upped the ante here. certainly, it does not tally with the comments from yesterday in tokyo suggesting that intervention would not be inconsistent with the agreement set by g-20. in other words, what prime said, that's not something they would consider -- he is trying to backtrack from that saying, intervention is on the table and we could do it. from the comments i've read from the eft -- manus: there is no appetite for that. we have to get to the yen. up next, tax avoidance. the european commi

supporters of brexit actually argue that the u.k. would achieve a more liberal trade regime than it enjoys now. this is a delusion. the brexit tax just gets bigger. upside forconomic the u.k. whatsoever. the only question is where on the spectrum of possible losses the outcome winds up. the oecd joins the international monetary g20 and cautioning against the brexit. this month the british finance ministry warns the country would be permanently poorer if it left the block. london,ent visit to barack obama also weighed in on the debate, saying that britain would move back on trade talks with washington in the event of brexit. -- the view is also being characterized at -- a now i what is happening. stephen: a very subdued day on european trading. investors are looking to a meeting of the federal reserve wrapping up in washington today. in london, we saw a jump earlier in in trading in barclays shares, 25% in pretax profits and formal. that was a picture on the short term in the market. melissa: now a look at consumers. they are to be fa

the call my eye was the brexit debate -- what caught my eye was the brexit debate.g in the best case scenario, there is still going to be really brought negative impacts. years of uncertainty. scenario, if we manus in britain to renegotiate hundreds of trade agreements with the eu and the countries around the world, even in this scenario, it will result in years of certainty -- of uncertainty. it will hurt the economies of britain and the european union. if you're looking at the poor cases, they say the trigger could be trade retaliation. you can see britain and the eu really fallout. it could cause a european union -- the european union to break apart. that caught my eye that in the based case scenario, we are facing years of you -- years of uncertainty. manus: what are the top lines of the fed? caroline: this is fascinating because many feeling negative rates come to the four. he says no. we see yields going higher. he in fact is warning about the fact that you can see the typical buyers of u.s. rate treasuries fall out of the market. --sumer confidence deals bill

but a brexit decision for him would be putting further pressure.d qe and o things would go on longer and even more problems going forwards. >> so that is the case if we get brexit. but even if we don't get brexit you have to wonder what the political ripple is for the eu and what it means for draghi. and at a time he says we need governments to step up here. fiscal structural reforms. >> we've got anti-political establishment sentiment has grown because of the financial crisis really and we've seen weak recovery. so yeah it remains an issue. but brexit i think if we clear that as a hurdle i think we can move on and all will return. >> are you more optimistic about greece now? >> we'll find out more next week. no not really. >> have a great weekend. >>> shifting back to apple. co-founder steve was knaeeiak saying the company should pay more tax. he argued all companies, including the tech giant should pay 50% to the government. >>> and it is not as easy as abc for google's parent alphabet. shares dipping after they missed the street on profit and re

why the brexit debate is the number one threat to the euro.speak to the forecaster in 10 minutes time. that is coming up on the pulse. ♪ guy: you're watching the pulse. -- china'sisitions this get the-- details now with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks guy. this chart pretty much shows what you just said. you can see the new bars. china's monthly outbound m&a. you can see that spike in february, more than $60 billion. topped $97als that billion -- this year alone. already the record. meanwhile, the white line is tracking the yuan exchange rate. the yuan versus the dollar. after the worst start to the 2000 11two decades, -- low this january. the currency as client a little bit against the dollar this year. the longer-term outlook is bearish. a blue books strategists that's --loomberg strategists says by year-end. you've got citigroup forecasting a 7% slide through 2017. this means for chinese companies to put money into u.s. market investment. as growth slows in china, there are also benefits to oversee expansion. there is a potential cost of delayin

and that crucial brexit debate?nna: welcome back. 6:30 in london. 7:30 in brussels. 1:30 in the afternoon in hong kong. we have the bloomberg first word news. reasserting his status as republican fter a biger as have bi win, saying that ted cruz does not like new york or new yorkers. hillary clinton off a big win over bernie sanders in the democratic race. she was expected to do well, having twice been elected senator. sanders had won seven of the last eight contests. japan's bond yield at a record low, meaning that it now yields less than 0.4%. the negative rates seeking positive yields in this period. governor kuroda says he does not think quantitative or qualitative easing has reached the limit. signaling left an appetite for adding monetary stimulus, this ater evidence after forecast by private economist. tonwhile, a record 192 days collect payments for goods and services. this is a figure which was 125 days five years ago. and it is a way for to increase pay debt.ompanies to the fbi has admitted it cannot acces

brexit -- the heart of the brexit question is the british people's right to govern themselves. the issues that one hears about, such as the concern of the cost of non-british citizens living in the u.k., or protecting london from over-regulation, are important but not the main point. the main question is if the british people have the right to govern themselves and whether self-government is more important than the perceived benefits of being in the eu. the destabilization of domestic politics in the eu. for a long time, and accelerating since the may 2014 european elections, pro-european establishment parties throughout the eu have been hemorrhaging support. and anti-eu protest parties have been gaining ground virtually everywhere. some, but not all, of the protest parties are on the far right and far left fringes. i think that is important to note. they are not all on the fringes. unfortunately, few among the established elite have drawn this state of affairs. after 65 years the eu has shown itself to be undemocratic, unaccountable, and unresponsive to voters. politicalters w

ramy: and brexit, the date of decision draws near.xperts forecast the fallout. >> it will be a shock if we were to leave. i think there is consensus on that. >> there is the freedom to find new markets in the world and take back control. ramy: it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ ramy: hello and welcome. i am ramy inocencio. this is "bloomberg best," the weekly review of most important business news analysis and , interviews from around the world. let's look at the headlines. and we start in the middle east. bloomberg has been reporting on saudi arabia's plan to diversify its economy and actually reduce its dependence on oil. they officially reduced that's released a blueprint for its future. mark: all eyes on saudi arabia, officials unveiling a blueprint for diversifying the economy. the economic shakeup has been led by the deputy crown prince mohammed bin salman, trying to away from the decades long a lot -- reliance on crude. take us through this blueprint. what do we know so far? andrew: we are talking about the biggest

this is on brexit concerns. overt feldman, 30 years of experience in out oftional economics, the massachusetts institute of technology, and on china watch for salamon and morgan stanley. , thank you so much for joining us. what is the disarray of the japanese government? what is the urgency into the weekend for mr. abe? 's focus is abe firmly on the upcoming elections, what to do about fiscal policy, not so much on monetary policy. with the yen trading at 108, this is an issue that is in front of them. but the politics of a somewhat exactly the are not same as the market implications. even the market implications are not all bad. politics are important because we have an election coming up in the summer for the upper house, maybe for the lower house, too, in which the electrical system is much more skewed toward the regions. that will mean for a stronger yen, not all bad for the administration. they have been very calm in their reaction so far. tom: dr. feldman, you have an inflammatory quote -- international co

visit bloomberg.com for more coverage of the brexit debate.s, polls, and indicators using the function brexgo. this is "bloomberg best." ♪ ♪ wiy: the bloomberg function chancesws investors the of a move that is gathering in june. if you look at the bloomberg, we c that allows you to see the supply chain, sdlc -- splc of any company you enter. mhif you run an hd, not -- d, you can see what is in the fund. there are 30,000 functions on the bloomberg. keep watching to learn about our favorites. here is one more to check out, quicgo. it gives you access to the entire library of quick takes. let's take a look at a quick take from this week. today,publisher of usa $50 million unsolicited from publishing. comes with the overall newspaper business a day. here in the u.s., the revenue has fallen by a third since 2005. here is the situation. papers like the washington post are pushing digital's capuchin plans. -- subscription lands. and that you take independent newspaper said they would stop print publications, and we see this echoed in australia. a su

they would be totally liberated by brexit. >> okay. let's move on. >> and sugar cane producers in poor countries around the world would benefit. >> you made your point. okay. we have left the e.u. let's move on to that scenario. you have said on several points this morning that there's actually -- there's an existing free trade area across the whole of europe, from iceland -- but that's not true. because agriculture not subject to free trade. if the u.k. left, we would then face the tariff barriers on the food products by being outside, we should mention. >> why? >> because the e.u. applies the very tariffs that you mentioned that you knew about. they applied to norway. so are you saying we would -- we would unlike -- we would have to negotiate free trade excess for agriculture products? >> i think given the huge exports of agricultural products to this country from the e.u., the rest of e.u. they would be insane not to do a deal with us involving free trade and agriculture products. >> that would require access to the rules. >> no. >>

i don't wish to see the brexit happen. i believe that what is happening currently is something which is already a wake-up call for europe. they believe that you staying helpeurope, you can dramatically changing the way things are happening in europe. i don't like a lot of things in france. and they don't like a lot of things in europe. they believe there is a lot of reform that has to happen. these reforms are taking too much time, and sometimes i agree, there is too much bureaucracy in europe and we are stalled simply because it is difficult to get 28 countries together and agreeing. at the same time, there is something which is much bigger than all these issues. building a far better europe is something in which you can contribute greatly. n?ancine: caroly did you want to -- >> if we do get a vote out, i don't think you can discount the original theory that we would find very rapidly that a different deal with europe was on the table, which could be advantageous to both the u.k. in europe. catalyst fore as a getting euro

we will talk more about brexit, brexit intervention, as obama backs the event.eak to one campaigner who says the mood is desperation around david camera. ron. cochair,peak to the coming up next. ♪ anna: welcome back from everybody. this is countdown. a live shot of new york for you. a small increase expected in the market today. when we finally get the u.s. start the trading day. 1:47 in the morning in new york. rather than yesterday, let us bring things back to this part of the world. we have the bloomberg business flash. look: yes, let us have a at the banking group, considering deeper cuts for 9000 jobs by the end of next year. that is coming for people familiar with all of this. the biggest mortgage lender 2014 plantsre designed to help lower expenses. the spokesman for lloyds s declined to comment. google says alphabet profit margins could be hit by more smartphones, meaning that they get more goods in front of more people. but they have to pay more to partners to reach users on the phone. shares slumping nearly 6% in extended trading. microsoft shares unde

they spoke about the uncertainty given brexit. we saw a little bit of a dip in the pound on the back of that. u.s. futures and how we're setting ourselves up for trade stateside, we're being called a little lower. that's seen on the implied open on the right-hand side of your screen. the dow being called down by around 25 points or so. european markets are seeing a bit of selling taking place. one of the bigger stories heading into trade here in europe today, china's first quarter gdp showed the slowest annual growth rate in seven years. bernie lowe sent this report. >> like a clock ticking over on the dot, china's economy grew 6.7% in the first quarter against the same time last year, right in line with what was expected. now, while it was a tick down from the previous quarter, many feel this clearly illustrates that the slowing economy has seen the worst of the bottom. other metrics surprised as well. industrial or factory output came in faster, advancing 6.8%. economists felt the number would be a lot lower than that, say aroun

let's get straight to more on brexit.his is one of the big debates we had; i chose a debate with six panelists. ande joined by marcel levy, also with us is george magnus. are you surprised? the debate was acrimonious and high-end motion. >> yes. it's normal, by the way, because it is something which is extremely -- it's about the future, it's about what will happen to the eu and also to the u.k. it was normal. i was a bit surprised by how nar row were they thinking of the people in favor of brexit. i don't want to be disrespectful, but they had the feeling that it was much more victorynostalgia of the that doesn't exist anymore, rather than by the future of the new world. it's not something which is so british. in fact, when you look at the british people, what the u.k. has been able to do, it's just fantastic. andng from the war rebuilding the country, and becoming a very open part of the eu and of the world. some surprised to see that formerful mps and chancellor' could defend the idea of leaving europe. francine: georg

then you have the fallout for brexit.t is quite hard to make a case that there won't be quite a large amount of uncertainty, shock to confidence, and we have done some analysis on that. it's really been the case, in the long-term, of what happens. this is productivity growth. whether the benefits can be replicated. arguably, they can, but it is a big assumption, and that is what the leaf campaign is resting their argument on. there will the eu, be a big short-term impact. francine: thank you so much. dan hansen with bloomberg intelligence. before we join "surveillance," let's have a look at the markets. we have seen since huge gyrations over the last 24 hours. this is the price of crude, the most important, pared down 2.4%. after talkse volley on sunday between the world's biggest producers did not agree on limiting supplies. it also had an impact on currencies; the aussie dollar and yen rising. stay with bloomberg. "surveillance" is up next; tom keene joins a from new york. with talk about brazil and their president's fu

the first question is brexit. european investors, brexit. if i go straight to the conclusion, the options market is pricing a 6% move on the day that friday the 24th of june. and just to put that in context we've only had ten of these moves over the last 20 years. so i think we should never lose sight of what's been given to brexit. and others will find themselves quite a bit higher. >> what about -- >> couple results today. >>> let's stick with the brexit theme. issuing a warning to britain saying it would lose all of its benefits if it voted to leave the eu in june. highlighting the risk of a brexit. said a vote to leave would be poise on the british european and global economies. chairman at lloyd's of london. in terms of investment environment here we look less attractive? >> i think for lloyds, lloyds of london is operating in 200 countries. it is quite clear to us. that while maybe around 15% of your business is in continental europe in the eu there are three reasons why it is so important for us. one is because of the passporting righ

let's finish up with brexit. with that coming up i think that plays in even to some extent with bank of japan. your thought on brexit with the notion london has unique spot considering who they service kind of important area of the financial services industry. and that part of the world, what is brexit do, what does it mean, how does it turn out? >> i think brexit i think at the end of the day the brits vote in favor of keeping within the union. i think it's smart for them. they're the financial center, if they want to remain the financial center they don't want it to go to frankfurt or brussels, they better vote for it. i'm not necessarily going to support what obama said today, but i think they should stay in and will stay in. >> all right. we're out of time. we got it all done. thanks, andy. simon hobbs, back to you. >>> thank you very much, rick. ahead on the show, an important decision today that effects cuban americans by the military government forced on them it would appear by carnival. it's ceo next on c

fors: even if we vote brexit? nigel: yes.nna: is there any short-term volatility in the markets -- you have to put that to one side. there will be short-term volatility but we have to put that aside. the pound has come under some weakness against the dollar. in part, that is driven by our poor performance injury. the issue that we are not talking about. the trade deficit on goods is approaching 10% at the moment. we've done a terrible job of exporting. anna: wouldn't that make it worse? we are doing a poor job now. we need to fix that. opportunities to increase the exports from britain by putting in a better export infrastructure around the world. we are not doing the day job while everyone focuses on the big issues. a man gettinglike ready for public office. stay with us. anna: up next, an exclusive interview from the ceo of credit suisse on the penama papers and investing in asia. he says it has been a useful experience. we also speak with christine lagarde. ♪ the panama papers hit european banks. his lender does not engage

put there is a caveat, brexit.ed meets on june 15, and the fed will take that into account, won't they? >> yeah, eight days before. i think the timing of the meeting and when the brexit vote happens is very important. i watched the interview you did with mr. kaplan, and he's, i think, certainly the second fed official that i've noticed who's talked about brexit. we've had dennis lockhath also talk about it. i think it's something that's playing into the decision making process, and, of course, it's only eight weeks away now. betty: richard, how conscious do you think fed officials are? even though they may not say it, if we're wreaking havoc on the markets, in some sense given the weakness of the dollar in the face of pending ate hikes here in the u.s. richard: the dollar has been weak since the december rate hike, and it's kind of a catch-22 for the fed, i think, because i think they'll welcome the fact that financial conditions are loosening from a weaker dollar. it's something that's welcome in the u.s. but if t

brexit -- message from america. we should not even consider it.: judging from that, but things can change. manus: at the ballot box. betty: let's look a how stocks are moving in the u.s. we have come off of our highs and are being dragged down. technology companies are the worst performers right now on the s&p. abigail doolittle has more. abigail: the nasdaq down sharply. the tech is weighing it down. -- missed earnings estimates. it was largely driven by rising traffic acquisition costs. it looks like rising costs are going to continue as the company spends to move towards mobile usage. the street seems to be giving alphabet a pass. includes someone from monster. mark mahaney. investors not so much. upsee the february rally trend has been broken, suggesting shares of alphabet could go back to those lows. betty: and alphabet is not only the drag, right? abigail: the biggest draw, more so then both class shares of off of it -- microsoft. it missed sales estimates and --ered a week fourth quarter a weak fourth quarter. some analysts are defending my

the campaign to prevent a brexit is heating up.ark carney and george osborne come out with all they have got in front of parliament. is it enough to keep the u.k. in the eu? betty: air carriers are reaping rewards of falling oil prices. have companies been passing it down to passengers? we will hear exclusively from the ceo of ryanair? mark: l'oreal reporting earnings today. we are going to break down the winners and the losers of the european earning bonanza. minutes now to the trading session. julie hyman has the latest on some of the movers particularly on earnings here. julie: they earnings driven. all three major averages are moved by the individual components that have reported earnings. that is why the nasdaq is trailing today because we have had some big cap tech disappointments and also in biotech. the dow jones and s&p 500 are each of exactly the same amount -- .41% here. some early highlights that want to mention. on the upside, we have johnson and johnson and goldman sachs. johnson & johnson reporting earnings to beat e

we look at the outlook with or without a brexit. the end of sanctions will see the unlocking of more than $100 billion of iranian assets. we'll ask about opportunities and infrastructure in the islamic republic. ♪ francine: let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: thanks. alibaba has agreed to take control of indonesia's e-commerce operation -- for $1 billion.for it will purchase stock from existing investors. lazada sells clothing in six southeast magasian markets. the slow down his claim another victim as lvmh's sales trailed estimates on a decline in tourism following the terror attacks in europe. the company shares are trading lower on the news. it is one of the worst performers at the moment on the european stock 600. is blaming a supplier for a recall that will affect to repair the car's third row seats. nomura has confirmed it will close certain businesses in parte and " rationalize" of its business in the americas. equity research, sales and underwriter european stocks will be shot. japan's largest broker s

. >> kit, let's touch on brexit. fears of a brexit in the sterling markets than anything else.o we start to see the euro soft as we approach june 23rd or is this a uk currency story? >> so far, it's a uk currency story. the uk, with the euro area's biggest trading partner so it certainly has an impact, you know, does -- would brexit represent an existential threat to europe and all of europe? yes, because the precedence would be scary throughout. that doesn't mean anything happens but i think if the uk were to vote to leave the eu, that would be negative for european growth and currency. i think it would be weeks before or days before the vote itself before it remains to be disclosed. that might be something that people talk for. but for the moment, we're seeing short euro positions gradually get squeezed out. we might have to wait a few weeks for that to become a factor. but the uk leaving the eu would be bad for europe. >> kit juckes, thank you for joining us this morning from london. >>> still to come, headlines from the campaign trail. weekend wins for bernie sanders and te

the brexit is not going very well. boris is stepping up and saying the mp should publish their tax affairs. this adds to that problem for david cameron. john, thank you. fund hasst pension agreed to pay $2.5 billion for a 40% stake in glencore's agricultural unit. they plan to sell off assets to curb their large debt burden. the stock is trading at 1.83%. joining us now to discuss this, is the bloomberg commodity is reporter. good morning, jesse. stop initially fell. what is the market making of this? jesse: it is depressingly flat, actually. the focus is on the prize. last year, citigroup put a number of $10 billion on it. some people might see this price as a bit low, but with of the market flat, people are factoring in the fact that the world is a different place than september of last year. berline.se, hans in what are the broader implications? the broader implications for glencore is this is a key pillar of their debt reduction plan. they are looking to reduce net debt from $26 billion, which the market has been o

next, you will have a brexit which we will see the u.s.lection looks like something very far down the road. this week we have the oil prices and what may happen here. are looking better certainly compared to what we had in january and february. francine: we don't have the turmoil. central banks are doing wrong. they are doing too much and maybe need to force more structural reforms. geraldine: it seems to me like the next stage, and just rates have serious albums in terms of transition and having an impact on the banking sector. now we would hope something would come from the fiscal. the first time this change in the policy might come from japan . europe will probably have to wait a little bit longer. they did something quite big, corporate bond buyback. wait to seeed to the impact of all of this. the next innovation if it were to come, quantitative easing, might come from japan. francine: how much do you look at japan to give us an indication of this great financial experiment? whether it is working or not? the yen arose quite significant

test bank of england if we voted for brexit. -- bank of england if we voted for brexit. it is how you respond to a slowing economy. the bank could do a lot. other central banks have been limited. it would like -- it is likely they would work to reduce interest rates and do more in the way of qe. the bank has space to do both of those. qe has been at this level for many years now. anna: let's talk about some of the strategies. a number of ideas in your notes this morning. european financials is one of them. the concern in some quarters about use of codes and whether than might be less keen they were in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. where do you stand on those? nicholas: when you look at what is going on in your, you've got an economy growing. you got banks that are still deleveraging. a bit of capital. you've got at a macro level, a situation that is much more favorable for the debt holder. bonds.er subordinated when you look at yields, you're looking pretty healthy. 5% to 7.5% yields. anna: you are focusing on retail oriented banks. is that because of

. >> support for the brexit argues that the u.k. would achieve a more liberal trade regime outside the eu than it enjoys now. this is a delusion. the brexit tax just gets bigger. we see no economic upside for the u.k. whatsoever. the only question is where on this spectrum of possible losses the outcome lines up. the oecd is the imf and g20 in cautioning against a brexit. this month, the british finance ministry warned the country would be permanently poorer if it left the bloc. barack obama weighed in to the debate, saying britain would move back -- to the back of the queue in trade talks with washington in the event of a brexit. the gloomy warning from the oec has been dismissed as flimsy -- been dismissed as flimsy. catherine n.: the olympic torch is officially on its way to brazil now with just 100 days to go until the summer games in rio de janeiro. head of thehe greek organizing committee attended a ceremony earlier on. the fashion designer, stella mccartney, has unveiled the british team's official kit. the flame itself will

it is the brexit word again. betty: it is. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: belgian prosecutors are investigating the terror attacks and they want information on the man in the hat. he was seen with two suicide bombers moments before the bombings. newly released photo show him leaving the airport and going to a nearby town. authorities are asking the public for any information or photos. vladimir putin has a night having any links to offshore accounts. he says that this is part of western efforts to weaken russia. his longtime friend is the owner of $2 billion in assets says he has done nothing wrong. merrick garland boko -- president obama will go to the university of chicago and will argue that senate republicans should give garland a confirmation hearing. asked ther -- have judge not to send them to prison. a filing says he is in poor health and has already been shamed by the case. he tried to pay $3.5 million in hush money to keep misconduct a secret. venezuela, the president is tr

what do you say about brexit, you don't think much will change, if anything? >> not much will change in the long-term. there will be stability in the vote if we choose to leave, but if you're being told to leave that is self-reinforcing, but fundamentally the trades in the short-term will remain the same while the government negotiates with europeans and the rest of the world. it's not in the european interest to change anything any more than it is in our interest. we got to think about the long-term benefits of leaving. and i think there's major long-term economic benefits of leaving. >> what about immigration? because the suggestion is, look, you can have all the benefits of a single market even if you are outside. but the other is the freedom of movement. i would argue that you actually can't do that if you have the benefits of a single market, you're still going to have the down sides that accrue with the immigration issues. is that not true, too? >> ending the negotiations should be a british option. everybody talks about the norwegian option or the swiss

up next, we will talk brexit.us: a little bit of breaking vehicles ining japan to fix the back door. that is quite a bit of cars. ♪ manus: it is 6:30 here in london. it is lunch time in hong kong. rishaad, good day. rishaad: singapore central bank unexpectedly easing their monetary stats to what was last adopted during the 2008 global financial crisis. themove to zero coming as financial hub feeling the effects of the global downturn and china's weakening economy. new zealand central bank saying a leak could surprise interest rate cuts next month. works reportera sent information about the cut from the media lockup on march 10th before the release time. there is no evidence it had an impact on financial markets. governor said the financial markets would of been in worse shape if the central bank and not adopted the negati ve interest rate. on thelicy could weigh country's lenders. >> our key challenges the negative interest rate could potentially have adverse effects on the profitability of the banking sector. the

rick: brexit has been discounted.ple following the polls with a sense of skepticism, they have been overturned by the final. stone ishink the falling in lockstep. michael: rick is with us for the hour. coming up in the next hour of surveillance, we will talk to joe stiglitz. this is bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ michael: good morning. it's time for the first word news. in franceain service has been hurt by a strike. private companies are offering passenger rail service for the first time in a competition. it's another hit to the malaysian fund. it has defaulted on a $1.8 billion bond. the malaysia fund is at the heart of an investigation. they have denied any wrongdoing. the federal reserve will keep its options open for a rate increase in june. policymakers begin a two-day meeting today. they believe the fed will keep the target range unchanged for a third straight meeting. the fed raised rates for the first time in a long time. civil rights groups say it unfairly targets minorities. opponents say they will appeal. to

and the brexit battle

it is difficult to see what the impact of a brexit would be.what i hear from those who created their companies -- the french entrepreneurs who created their companies based in london is that they are worried. they are worried. they trade a lot with france and the rest of europe. they are more powerful because they are part of that european union -- european community, especially when it comes to negotiating with others, such as the u.s. or china. so, there is a feeling of worry, i would say. reporter: you are here to launch the french digital tech hub in london. london is a city you know very well, because you were elected here as part of the french mp's. hub, andtant is this how does it work? axelle: i came to launch the london french tech hub. the french tech is a community startup. the state government decided to give them that label when they are members of this project. hubwe launched a different in france. there is such a diaspora. there are so many french entrepreneurs who live and work abroad that creating a network at the international

if we see a brexit? lot of cases we immediatelyooked to the silver market and said that was feel the effect. we have seen it short term in the six-month to nine-month range, which is brexit related. we would see a big move in gilt, and we have it. there is no fundamental financing issue that will come out of it. we will not question the ability to finance. veryall in the pound is applicable. if there is a structural change in the economy, that has a long-term impacts. long-term, the impact will be more micro than macro. in the short term, we think growth will be dented in the next 18-let's significantly if we have an exit, but long-term it is about individual companies. maybe some of our assumptions do not play out. francine: there will not be a pound collapse? stephanie: it is hard to believe that you would see the pound rise, that would be a surprise. so faralready fallen when you think about the underlying fundamentals. the growth dynamics in the u.k. still look good. tom: going back to currency dynam