brexit seem to be a development.rexit wasn't even on the list when it came to risk to the economy. in the official document, we are seeing language like posing a serious risk to the economy. this would actually reverse the trend when it came to greater global trade as well as investment. not to mention the jobs created behind it. we heard david cameron talking about this. he wanted another body to support their main camp. pressed fortalks his case staying in the block. a deal worth $7 billion. saying the agreement underlines the importance of the u.k.. the pm having a pretty good week. he also got the victory when it came to dealing with the steel supply, oversupply in china. the g7 said they are going to tackle this issue. governmentfueled by subsidies and support. guy: thank you very much. yvonne man joining us. the president of the united states has just landed in hiroshima. we will bring you the pictures later on we hope. let's talk about what is happening with the japanese economy. e is lookingbÉ\ at canceling t

brexit it a huge risk -- is a huge risk.ou cannot model appear you have got to understand that the negative implications of an out vote, could be very serious. you plan for that. you have to take it as it comes. but the uncertainty for the u.k. is for europe and global trade would be very significant. vote,k a pro-brexit leaving the eu, would increase the likelihood of trump getting elected and trade wars which which linked global output relative to free trade. so, i think these are very significant risks which would probably make the markets more concerned than they currently are. francine: buy gold? andreas: i don't like gold. francine: we have people coming on the program saying buy gold. thank you so much for now. he'll stay with us. we will about, how do you trade in this environment? this is the picture for commodities. in terms of what we are seeing, overall, a lot of these european stocks are down. crude is touching 48. brent at 49. we talked to the technical level at 50. what it means for the future depends on wheth

-- votes for a brexit.xactly one month until the referendum. will come to "countdown." i'm manus crannyi in dubai. anna: and i'm anna edwards. let's talk about where we are expecting to go. it looks like things are expected to be sluggish with the the stoxx 600 down .3%. because the markets japanese market was sluggish, but elsewhere, china is doing ok. is south korean market is doing ok. we will get a glimpse of how some of the other asset classes are moving around. ourse, a real hot potato at the most recent g-7 meeting. that will continue to be the case with the u.s. and japan divided over the merits of the intervention. and we have got the aussie dollar against the u.s. dollar, showing a boost to the aussie. biggest in the dollar index on the back. people are just reevaluating after they saw the strength in the u.s. dollar last week. they are reevaluating if the thoughts about june, if that has gone a little bit too far. we are seeing the aussie and other risk currencies moving higher today. market'svio

as they wait to see how this brexit story shapes up.k to you, guys. >> geoff, thank you very much. ever great to see you. >> we asked on facebook and twitter will the brexit vote on june 23rd affect the rate hike decision. so far, the majority saying yes, it will impact and we'll wait and see. but we did add other options like no, it won't impact and the fed goes. >> it's confusing. >> it's not confusing. people are into it. it's nuanced and it's accurate. i challenge you to a twitter question tomorrow. >> i'm going four-part. do continue to get involved on our twitter question. i apologize if it's a little confusing for everyone this morning. >>> right. moving on, authorities in singapore are calling it the worst case of gross misconduct they've ever seen in the financial sector. they've ordered bsi, a swiss private bank to shut down operations for breaching money laund laundrying operations. the fund has been at the center of corruption scandal with charges that the prime minister personally gained from. murky transactions. several co

we talked brexit next.e pulse -- ♪ francine: welcome to "the let's get to the first word news with nejra. fund, owns 1.64% in vw and says it is acting to safeguard its holding in the carmaker. telecom italia has almost tripled its target. the largest phone company in italy says the cuts will be split equally between costs and spending. the new ceo aims to improve profitability. shares are trading higher this morning. a plunge by chinese stocks in hong kong had traders scrambling to find a trigger. the enterprises index tumbled from a gain of 1% to a loss of 1.5% before rebounding. stocks including a brewery and petro china fell sharply. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. thecine: let's talk about referendum. carney -- critics angry at his warnings about the risk of brexit. >> if we are taking a judgment as a committee and we are changing policy because of it, we are putting out billions of pounds of liquidity facilities, getting banks t

let's not even talk about brexit. uncertainty of the referendum means that pound took all the brunt of this volatility. kamal: we're looking through the lens for sterling in terms of the impact on the current account deficit. the travails of the deficit are very well known. it relies heavily on investment to fund that deficit. consequently, any uncertainty has implications for the currency and has implications for volatility. we can see that volatility is rising as we approach the referendum. we are looking at implications for the broader macroeconomic picture. so what does that mean for pound? let's say the country stays in the eu. what happens to pound after that? is it weaker anyway? kamal: we do think that pound will continue to weaken heading into the referendum. 1.40, 1.35 potentially. after the referendum, i think the base case scenario is the u.k. remains and we see a meaningful recovery in sterling. we could head back to the 1.45 levels. francine: what happens if brexit happens? kamal: that is the great uncer

about brexit, utilities? a big player in europe. .e are in spain we have more customers in those markets than we do in parts of u.k. it is important that we get people -- give people the option . i'm a believer in access to a single market with 500 million people. manus: richard, one of the big questions, everybody uses the recession word. is it a full-blown recovery? how would you describe the uplift that we are seeing in europe? richard: i think one of the things about homeserve is we are a very resilient business. if i look back to win the spanish economy was on its legs if years ago, we managed to grow throughout that recession. we have 1.2 million customers in spain and growing strongly. if you have a good business model, you've got support, you've got great business, then that is all you need to succeed. anna: richard, thank you for joining us. richard harpin from homeserve. that will do it for manus and i on the move is up next. the asian market has been fairly negative. they are in the red. it looks l

i far as brexit is concerned, am very worried about brexit.for the immediate damage to the u.k. and the european economy, but also from the fact that is can be taken as an example of leaving europe. let us notuntries, forget that we are witnessing a widespread discontent about european values and strategies. so brexit could lead the way to more painful entanglement of europe. francine: is it a moment? pier: it could be decisive moment in european history. francine: a could create shocks? i know that it would impact the city of london. pier: it would impact the european construction. highly integrated in europe, benefits from integration, like all other countries. if brexit happens, if the referendum delivers the decision to leave europe, we will enter a medium-term, several years period of continued stagnation. which on how to disentangle the u.k. from europe, how to disentangle the u.k. we know how we start the we do not know how we end. francine: are you concerned about too much monetary policy in europe not forcing other countries to take m

guy: do you think the brexit debate or the brexit outcome the have an effect on decision to sell a stakeusiness? >> well, the decision on whether to sell the shares in aib is a matter for the minister of finance. and obviously, in making that decision he will take into account the state of the stock market. and irish government policy will determine when he sells the shares. that will give us two months notice. we are ready to go. we have a prospectus ready and will be ready to comply. guy: whichever way the outcome is, there will be some volatility. is that going to have an impact? if the u.k. decides to remain in the u, there will be volatility. if the u.k. decides to leave, there might be more volatility. what are you saying? is that volatility going to be a preventing factor for the finance minister? regarding selling some of that business, i mean. >> i would say there will be a lot of market volatility if britain decides to leave the european union because the terms of trade of britain with the european union will not be known for an extensive period of ti me and it will take a very

of course, the brexit debate has loomed large in over markets. the outlook of the central bank's rate -- joining us with the latest is the lead u.k. economist from unicredit. thank you so much for coming and. this is extremely complicated for mark carney because he cannot be seen to get a political message, and yet he may have to change his forecast. --thank you so much for coming in. >> i think he will focus on the short-term impact of brexit, which would be huge uncertainty. the bank has always said it will not give projections of the impact of the u.k. economy. but he could say something about the short-term. we would expect him to say that. huge uncertainty and the impact the answer and he would have on the u.k. economy which is negative. francine: what exactly are you expecting from the boe today? are you expecting a unanimous vote? other economists are respected one person to vote for a rate cut. i you expecting them to down. -- to downgrade their forecasts? >> there are few doubts there that would probably look to ease policy -- there are

the brexit would be a revolution.ast night, we had the biggest vote outside the general election. 43 million people entitled to vote, lots of vote cast, and very little change. if this is a country on the brink of revolution, there's no sign of it in these results. we just had the final scottish result. snp remains in government, has gone back slightly. the big bad news for the labour party is they have gone into third place the hind the conservatives. francine: a wider political takeaways, is it all about scotland? if they lost some states, they are still powerful enough. stewart: certainly. nationalism, independence has not gone away in scotland at all. that said, in scotland, if you are voting for a revolution, the snp had a majority. it has just edged back from that. perhaps voters want things to stay as they are. francine: does it mean anything for jeremy corbyn? rob: that is the problem. jeremy corbyn needs voters not to want things to stay as they are. jeremy corbyn said this is a chance for voters to decide wh

and of course a brexit warning from the mpc.yer essentially buying competitor monsanto, putting together two of the biggest companies in the world that provide seeds and farm chemicals. bayer shares falling in frankfurt, the cento shares rising in the premarket. there have been talks there could be another player in the next but it want to bring you in and ask, we were talking about this the last couple of days. last year was the year of megamergers. last year is no longer a record year because so many of them have fallen apart. a lot of them for regulatory reasons. when you see a matchup like this, i wonder if this will be a partnership that is doomed to fail. line area ofthe expertise but you see a lot of awareness heightened in these deals and rejections. it is interesting when you see so much money deployed to these types of transactions before really doing -- in terms of what is likely to happen. i think in a way we are seeing is cheap money than anything else and how ultimately, to create revenue growth, forces merger --to

brexit risk.al economic crisis as consumer prices at home drop for a second month. ♪ jonathan: to our viewers worldwide, a warm welcome. i'm jonathan ferro alongside david westin and vonnie quinn. david: it is been quite a week that we are wrapping up. we had the g7 that just concluded over in japan and oil getting back up to $50 a barrel. jonathan: and janet yellen coming up as well. it might not be the big one, because she might not comment on monetary policy. vonnie: she's accepting an award , but we may have to wait until the next week or two. the

brunello: the banks will meet before the brexit vote. there will be a tendency of being cautious, especially for those who want to keep some powder dry in case something goes suddenly run. that's suddenly -- in case something goes suddenly wrong. , there isf brexit consideration at the bed, the referendum looming large over the june meeting. -- consideration at the fed. it will not have any immediate impact. you want to be cautious and wait .or events mark: thank you. good to see you. brunello rosa. that: some developments on case involving insider trading. guilty onrman pled may 16 to 12 counts come including perjury. goter phil mickelson insider information from dean foods. this when wew return on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: live from london and new york. betty: this is the european close. fiat chrysler recalling about 500,000 jeep wrangler suvs worldwide. the recall covers wranglers from the 2007-2010 model years. they are not aware of any injuries blamed on the problem. its car sharing service to boston, chicago and washington. char

the treasury lays out two scenarios in case of a brexit. under the "severe shock" outcome, gdp would be 6% lower than otherwise, and holding prices would fall 10%. the referendum on the eu was to 23rd. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm shery ahn. tom: thank you. let's look at the data. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. commodities front and center, up fractionally, yields churning. continue to dollar strength. in commodities, some real weakness. oil giving it up after a strong, ten-day period. euro stronger. there is singapore iron ore. that is a big move, 5.5%. an important chart over the weekend, of all the tankers off the shores of singapore. francine: that is an important figure, because overall we are seeing quite a lot of pressure on these industrial metals declining. european stocks were down but are now up at touch. huge, but at least they aren't falling. bayer, whoshow you made this unsolicited offer to buy monsanto. this is a big deal because of

from what i can tell, the brexit is the last.se advocating brexit, some of them have spent many years preparing for this moment. and yet, they seem unable to set out a clear and comprehensive plan for our future outside the eu. some admit they would be a severe economic shock, but i sure ultimately it will be a price worth paying. others are in denial that there will be a shock at all. and they can't agree what their plan for post-brexit britain. will look like. one minute we are urged to follow norway, up next, canada and then, switzerland. until it becomes clear that their rage and does not find much access for services to the -- that their arrangement does not have much access to the services of the eu. leverscently, the have noticed that many countries have negotiated separate trade agreements with the eu. they called these countries the european free trade zone. but in fact, this does not exist. to suggestone on that britain might join this nonexistent zone, just like albania. seriously? even the albanian prime minister thou

if you look around brexit, gaining momentum.ushing 1%.er, up 5.9 of the yield curve looking interesting. a little bit higher, around two basis points. why? because of the u.k. does remain in the eu, potential of rate hikes are around the corner. just about one hour away from the opening bell on wall street. here is what you have to go, shares plunging this morning after forecasting second-quarter profit that trailed analyst estimates. best i announced the departure of their cfo, effective at the june annual meeting. deutsche bank ceo says his bank has never had more capital and could prepay their debts many come over, responding to a credit rating cut by investor services. europeanceo says investment banks are losing control of their own rivals in a bloomberg exclusive. vonnie: first word news time. let's get you updated. french investigators raided the as part of anis investigation into tax fraud. 100 investigators took part in the raid. no, yet. human remains may hold the answer to questions about what caused the egyptair plan

donald trump says a brexit would be in the u.k. interest. i know you would like to china and but i have to say thank you for your time. the brits do not want donald trump telling them what to do. molly: donald trump has weighed in on the issue and he is not trying to unify the republican party behind his presidential run. it is proving to be a difficult task as house speaker paul ryan, the highest ranking elected republican official says he is not ready to support the real estate mogul. now that trump is the presumptive nominee after his two remaining rivals dropped out of the race, we also have the former presidents george bush and his son who have rejected trump's run for the white house. now there has been cross-border unrest between israel and gaza. says theyicy military hit infrastructure but there were no reports of casualties. this comes after three days of violence after which gaza fired mortars. one palestinian woman has died. it is the first time direct classes -- clashes between hamas and israel broke out since the 2014 war. syria

we are going to see soon a vote on brexit.or,to see we see the escalation coming from the u.s. elections. potentially you see a lot of factors that may affect market sentiment. sent cc volatility but it is not the kind of villa to into client activity. -- in that sense you see volatility. but it is not the kind of volatility that translates into client activity. mark: a drop in provisions for in loans outweighed a bump trading revenue. net income rose ahead of estimates. e market environment was unfavorable at the start of the year. >> revenues held up well in international financial course, there of was an unfavorable market environment at the start of the year. the first two months. pluned 50%.zbank net income slid to 163 million euros, still exceeding the 160.5 million predicted in a bloomberg survey. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 24 hundred journalists in 150 news bureau or around the world, you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . francine: think is so much. we are getting breaking news. popular

he believes that a post brexit u.k.> ireland's point of view, we want very clearly that britain should remain a member of the european union. that includes across the irish impact on northern ireland. that we have a common travel area since the early 1920's, and the fact that europe is much stronger with a strong britain. the problem with trade deals is that they are essential to economics of a country. dealsch do you like trade and are concerned it might not get through? jerry: i worry they have stopped being boring. that they have become political lash points in ways that are misunderstood. it is hard for anyone who studies economics to think that free trade is not a general good for anyone. the failure of some countries, including the u.s., to deal with the individual impact has made this a political issue. my fear is that trade deals are becoming more of a flash point. tom: i want to show a balance sheet and an income statement. bring up the debt chart. we showed this yesterday. t in the in net deb united kingdom. t

brexit is definitely featured. mark: how is carney going to keep out of the brexit the next week? going to be tricky. >> i think it will be very challenging for him. the line they will take is there is a lot of uncertainty now with the brexit debate. let's see where we stand afterwards. i think the way david is pointing it shows the bank of england has a big challenge. mark: mohamed el-erian talking about the importance of the yen and bank of japan not acting. we have had little japanese action because it was the golden week holiday. this is the yen going back to the end of last week. >> i think it is interesting because you see a sharp drop in the value of the dollar versus the yen. on the a marginal move third of may, on tuesday. we ground a little bit higher. i think we have traded sideways. next week could be interesting. mark: "the close" is next. stay with us. ♪ Âi mark: back from london and new york, you are watching the european close with mark barton and vonnie quinn in new york. let's take you through all the action. the jobs report came out and stocks were already lower

will they delay because of the brexit and the u.s. election?- weg about a recession surveyed 66 people in the marketplace. 3.53% at the upper end, at the bottom of the market, 1.5%. we have not seen a gap like this since 2013. the market is very, very divided, but i am also skeptical when it comes to that little bit of volatility, a depression in volatility, jumping off to a six-week high for the dollar with good retail numbers. retail sales, producer prices, consumer sentiment. how is your risk radar, anna? anna: a big week, as you say. we have moves in oil prices you need to be aware of. wti up 1.3%. goldman sachs talked about the market being in deficit earlier than they expected, increasing demand, a drop in production, all contracting to that. goldman sachs increased their forecast for where oil goes this year. we had the dollar index. you mentioned it, pretty flat this morning after a six-week high on retail spending data that we got recently. the fed minutes are due this week. also data is due out of japan. a real focus on japan, with ce

brexit the movie premiered in london last night. makes the case for leaving the eu and features some of the leading politicians and economists that are advocating a brexit. the film's director said he wanted to spell out the choice before us adding that the film was a rallying cry to fight -- fight for our independence. >> how did we miss this one? red carpet debut? the glamour. >> i know. how does the vote to stay in campaign. how did they miss this one in terms of making another movie showing the other side of the coin? >> never put it past anyone. the movie "brexit." even before the vote happens. >> i might have to see it. just out of curiosity. we have to take a quick break. check out the world markets live blog throughout the day. cnbc.com. lots on there. take a read. we'll get to your questions and your comments after the break. so send them through. more on strategy in a minute. >> it will help this company address the challenges it faces. particularly in restoring consumer trust. >> get ready for trial. brazil indicates they

is this brexit for a dollar move? -- or a dollar move? >> there is a brexit reaction right there.you look at the average of the polls, it seems that the "stay" camp has been progressing of late. you can see a relief rally. i don't think it is going to go very far. anna: vincent, thank you. coming up, it is the market open, the futures pointing to a flat start to the trading day. perhaps it will be a little bit stronger i london. n♪ anna: good morning and welcome to "on the move." we're here in the city of london, moments away from the start of european trading. here is your morning brief. plummeting profit in a tough first quarter for ubs, seeing as topline fall 64%. tells us that potential volatility from macro events is "paralyzing." a beat for bmp. it's showing resilience, but it has been a challenging first quarter. >> revenues held up well in domestic markets, in financial services. but of course there was a particularly unfavorable market environment, particularly at the start of the year, those first two months. anna: and the aussie dollar dies after the countries central b

manus: let's talk to you about brexit. no ceo will escape the bloomberg brexit question.ys he thinks he will do the right thing and stay. everybody is warning us if we vote for brexit, we will see rampant food price inflation. is that the truth? john: it is really difficult to say what would happen in the event of brexit. from our position, we are a -- apolitical on it. trying to predict what would happen in that scenario is difficult. i would not say it would necessarily lead to food price inflation. manus: this is one of the big arguments in the marketplace, that this collapse in sterling would have an unprecedented impact on the businesses. what impact on sainsbury's would a dramatically lower sterling? how does it play down to your workforce? predict is difficult to . if the brexit were to lead to a collapse in sterling, clearly, we saw some of our products from outside the u.k. and that makes it more expensive. in theory, that could be passed on in the form of food price inflation. we also source a great deal of product from the u.k. there are many implications in te

about 40% think brexit will occur and 40% does not.'s take a look at where markets are ending the day. we will be having that in a moment. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, you are watching the european closed. i am mark barton along with vonnie quinn. a daily dominated by earnings. carlsberg, the world's biggest brewer reported fourth-quarter sales that disappointed investors. it offered a gloomy outlook for eastern europe and asia. sales in western europe which account for two thirds of the company's revenue declined more than expected. for haveow the big fared on a share base prices for the last 12 months. abs, 2% lower. top of the tree, sab miller up by 18%. the earnings test did not and there. rising a stronger than estimated 30% after an agreement. it was a two-year arbitration process that finished in march and enabled e.on to cancel some provisions recorded in earlier years and that boosted its profits by about 400 million euros. this is an industry going change as itndous shifts from nuclear to green energy. it has lost h

and the ble and brexit. the central-bank prepares for its last super thursday ahead of the referendum. we will bring you full coverage, live on bloomberg. so we are 28 minutes away from the start of the european trading. it looks likely will see a mildly negative start to the day. let me show you what's happening. this is the picture at the moment; you need to focus on his missed price column. london looks like it will be down around 3/10 of 1%. continental markets looking firmer. i would say probably that points to a flat story at the get-go. caroline: yeah. let's have a look at the asset checks we have on. i want to draw into what has been happening on the oil side, and what has been happening largely on the japanese trading front. keep an eye on oil. there was a surprise reduction in inventories in the united states; we saw it down to its lowest in september, 2014. clearly a bounce in oil has been driving it, some japanese bonds to keep a close eye on. i'm interested by the fact that 30 year japanese debt

what i find most interesting, you mentioned brexit, he says that brexit would be a big trauma for europehich most educated commenters have agreed on over the last couple of months but most interesting, he says that brexit might bring about a more unified european union. i should make it clear that i'm only reading the headline here but that to me is a shocker. that is a big one sing that wrecks it would bring a more unified eu. what do you think about that? >> i would strongly disagree. is inr existential crisis store if brexit happens. it is as stark as that. guy: i'm surprised he said that and i will wait and see whether there we're lost in translation element. >> here is what i'm thinking. maybe what he's saying is that the brexit vote may bring about a more unified eu. if the u.k. votes to stay that would make the union stronger. a try want to clarify. and just reading the headline here. we will continue to follow these headlines and we will get clarity on that. making some very interesting points there. japan will stay with us. we are minutes away from the open. up next, we will loo

there is little risk of a brexit. betty: as a central banker, you would be closely watching global events. the atlanta bank -- the atlanta fed bank president made some comments last night. >> the way i think of brexit is it is a consideration. mapkey thing is to try to whatever seems to be developing back to the real economy in the united states and ultimately back to our objectives. betty: but, simon, it seems like so far, though, if you judge the comments made here, is that there isn't going to be a huge impact on the real economy in the u.s. simon: that remains to be seen. bluebird intelligence is out with analysis -- bloomberg intelligences out with analysis that suggests the drag from the u.k. and the potential spillover into financial markets could push the fed's hiking cycle back another three months. you might want to see what happens in the brexit referendum first and adjusted that -- and adjust to that. mark : why are the superforecasters and political forecaster, which we've incorporated into our brex func

francine: overall, how do you model a brexit? what does it mean for investors wanting to still be long on u.k. equities? >> there are three things you want to do. as the made momentum continues to build -- the remainder momentum continues to build, i would be adding to sterling. i would be subtly hedging, and if this momentum continues, i would go overweight. in the u.k., i think the best hedge is to buy banks. particularly hsbc and lloyods. beneficiarieshe of the u.s. and u.k. returning from a rising cycle, tying in quite nicely with a hedge against -- francine: overall, what polls do you believe when you look at the brexit debate? the problem is that we don't know what the endgame is, if breaks it were to happen, so you need to take a guesstimate. do you believe the current polls? i believe the remain side is making progress, but this is very different from previous euro crises, if you call this a crisis. in the event of greece or portugal, you have no currency market to measure the sentiment, it.ested here we have a very dynam

that is more to do with taxation than with brexit.vidence on the margin of a little bit of slowing down. much.lucy, thank you so she stays with us on the program. a snapshot of italy's financial sector. next onive from milan countdown. ♪ anna: welcome back this is "countdown. around byeing bumped moves overnight in australia and a negative handover coming through from the asian session in japan. difficult to make a direct link. let's get to bloomberg business flash with juliette saly. profits: first quarter dropped 33%, that is the road biggest fuel maker contended with slumping prices and a declining iron ore. the government has maintained its four-year earnings target. the cottage shares have plunged limited. shares have -- have plummeted. they will cooperate with the national highway traffic and safety demonstration. they are not aware of any substantial risk. taking a bitenk to shore off its finances. it posted first quarter profits that be analyst estimates. it declined to a four-year low. -- that compares with the 23.4 million e

how do you model the brexit?or the u.k.,k the sorts of investments people make year tend to be quite long-term. those sort of investments would be most affected by britain leaving the eu because we lose access to the single market so we model it by thinking about how that might affect the currency. -- avolves a see shock currency shock of about 10% and a credit shock as well. you see how it transmits across the u.k. and across the globe. tom: what did you learn? thee: the implications for u.s. are probably pretty modest, maybe ever so slightly slower growth next year and the year after that reflecting weaker demand for u.s. exports and some spike in market sentiment. that could be enough to hit the balance away from a july rate hike, towards december meaning only one rate hike this year. tom: when i think is so important is your plug-ins on your model. i grant you the currency idea, i think it is common sense. what is your quality of your other plug-ins? mathematically do you have any confidence in your economy c

tom, you have more on brexit. tom: more on brexit. francine has carried the water on brexit.s. two what i was suggested as the gerard lyons piece in "the sunday times" caught my attention. economicyons, great forecaster at standard chartered and working with force johnson who is brexit, brexit,. . we do not need a trade deal to trade.' "the eu is a customs union. " he emphasizes food. "food prices could fall to the level of world rates." that begins an opening on a discussion forward to june. pick it up, please. francine: i thought it was a very lucid, well-written piece by jerod -- gerard lyons. the problem at the same time as you have more and more countries being isolationist, are doing you do not need trade deals when you see protectionism -- the currency wars that could be picking up again is a dangerous game. sony, this is the problem with brexit. on a sidebar, the colombian president weighing in on brexit, saying this would be a big mistake. first of all, it sends the wrong message to the world, which is we are looking inwards. and two, you do need trade deals. otherwi

elections and brexit. manfred expects gold, silver, and platinum markets to rebound by as much as a present. in octoberlast seen 2012. deutsche mark co-ceo has the most challenging job among all of his european counterparts in turning around the german lender. that is according to martin gilbert. he spoke with bloomberg's francine lacqua. he has a tough job. they have a good manager. i think they have all got investment banks that they are probably trying to downsize. still: prime minister abe plans to raise japan's sales tax next year. he told lawmakers he will make a final decision regarding the hike at an appropriate time. they are reporting he would delay the increase as it would threaten efforts to defeat inflation. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: you've on, thank you very much -- yvonne, thank you very much. oil price is on the move. juliette saly joins us from hong

he says the central bank has been a neutral party and the brexit th -- in the brexit debate.hery: let's head to the markets desk julie hyman has the latest on the rally. julie: it's been gaining steam with all three averages at highs for the session. the nasdaq leading gains. as i mentioned earlier, we are pending this rally on the changing perception of what the fed is going to do in terms of raising rates. we've not seen news since yesterday on that front. it is not only a steep rally, but a broad-based rally. that means the s&p 500 is now in the green for the month. ifay may salvage the month this rally does continue for the next several days. it has been a very tight range for the s&p 500 over the course of the month by about 50 points. that is unusual and a low bit different than what we had seen in april. giving back to today's session, we have all green on this wheel. that does not happen very often here. technology is helping lead the games along with the financials today. we are also seeing a big lift and health care industrials and consumer discretionary. it back to

what would be the economic impact as a -- if a brexit were to happen?toph: how much would it cost? that is one of the crucial questions hovering about a possible brexit. a brexit would lessen the uk's gross domestic product by more than three percentage points. one thing is certain, no other country has left the european union before and that uncertainty makes investors and businesses nervous. >> britain is a proud country with a rich history but many people there would like to see a future outside the european union. service in recent months has showed an even -- a nearly even split between supporters and opponents of the brexit. if they choose to go it alone in june, it could be costly. a study concluded that if britain left the eu its gdp would declined by up to 3% by 2030. the cost could be as much as 300 billion euros. studies point to even greater cost for britain. the organization says a brexit would deliver a blow to the country's economy. the adverse affects for other eu members would be lower depending on how much they rely on her trade --rely

-- brexit?we had to take trump seriously now. of presidention obama on the other side arguing very strongly that the u.k. would be better to stay in the eu. join then't, it would back of the queue for any trade deal. that suggests that had some modest impact on the voter sentiment. i imagine trumps intervention would not have any particular impact. he made very clear that america first so any weakening of the eu would play into that narrative. the prime minister has been article of trump's comments on muslims and reinforce that message yesterday. the timing looks somewhat predictable. stuff.an, interesting on crawford joining us out of edinburgh on the latest coming out of the u.k. regional elections. we're looking for to getting results later here in london. joining me now is ramin the keys nakisa. talk to me about what you just saw about the u.k. ramin: we saw conservatives gain a lot of ground. think the key for the u.k., passing a very good brexit age on bloomberg -- also the volatility whic

talking david cameron about brexit. he said he is not a closet brexiter.n: i am passionate about eating the right results, getting the reform. it is in britain's national interest. >> you have been predicting with some success if you look at some of the polls, economic armageddon if we let the european union -- left the european union. and yet angela merkel said it was not a subject. leaders to not get involved or have you over exaggerated the impact of us leaving? we didn't hear from you yesterday on migration. talk about these figures? why were you silent on an issue that is so important? mr. cameron: i tend to have a day full of meetings. on the second, i have a press conference. that is what we have done this time. on the economic impact, there was a discussion about the issue. clearmmuniquÉ is very about the economic dangers and risks. i don't want to overemphasize anything. i have always said britain is a great country. the fifth largest economy in the world. we've got a lot of strength. the question for me is how are we going to best succeed in the

what if brexit would also of the risk radar -- what if brexit went off of the risk radar, would thatind? michael: i think yesterday rally wasrisk-on started by the telegraph pole on the brexit. it shows a whitening of the get -- a widening of the gap between the two sites. rally inred a broad europe. if the market is pricing in lower the brexit risk already, think there's still a risk. it will perpetuate some of the spirit of skepticism in the u.k. and europe for years to come against a backdrop of rising political risks. we are not out of the woods yet. i grexit, i hear the sound of can being kicked down the road. [laughter] michael: it is political in that it positions discussions on that relief from the german elections. who knows where we will be in 2018? it doesn't really solve the balance sheet issue for greece. i think it does for the moment take greece off of the geopolitical roadmap for the time being. anna: take us to your thoughts on how assets are positioned ahead of the eu referendum. as you suggest, we see some movements in the poll. what the polls are showing is that m

june is pudgy because of brexit. -- punchy because of brexit. >> that would be the one reason for themto go, for the sake of seven or eight days, why bother? give it another month. they have a meeting in july. the indication that we are going to move in july. the trouble is she has wandered a the garden path couple times. either we except that i think the fed is moving toward the next rate rise or she is just not in control. the fomc is divided. we don't know. we would expect her to be coming a hawkish viewh but she has failed to deliver a couple times. francine: she needs to talk today. there is debate about whether she will talk about monetary policy. she has a chance, it is at harvard, give us your thoughts. >> she has got a speech lined up for the sixth before we go into the fomc. we don't know. this is a bizarre set up. everyone is looking over their shoulder trying to work out what is going on. she does not have to speak about policy today. but she will speak about policy before the june meeting. she has got to give an indication of where she is. if she is not talking about the r

judy is awkward in terms of the brexit timing.ot entirely clear that the market would appreciate what following thenged last speech from janet yellen and concerns about the global economy, what she was seeing in terms of inflationary pressures and so on. the june hike just seems a little bit too really. i think the market pricing has risen to about 30%. and maybe as far as we compared the u.s. dollar has had a good run, but it may have to step back about it into the june meeting if they'll study, as we expect. we are leaning toward september who we can see the case for july. we look with the broader context, this chart reflects the last presidential elections. the fed has actually moved three times in the past seven presidential's. by the fed bluster not being prepared to move more aggressively this year, what you make of that? guest: it is a very common assumption in the market. it is good to know that they have that history. that is the point that john williams was making over the weekend. its view.ands by i think the november m

brexit risk. vonnie: the potential for a global economic crisis as consumer prices at home drop for a second month. ♪ jonathan: to our viewers worldwide, a warm welcome. i'm jonathan ferro alongside david westin and vonnie quinn. david: it is been quite a week that we are wrapping up. we had the g7 that just concluded over in japan and oil getting back up to $50 a barrel. jonathan: and janet yellen coming up as well. it might not be the big one, because she might not comment on monetary policy. vonnie: she's accepting an award , but we may have to wait until the next week or two. there are some notes that i'm getting because we have a long weekend of no trading this holiday. jonathan: let's go around the world and check in with our bloomberg world news. mike mckee is in new york. then, a wrap of the g7 meeting. and then another warning about the cost of a brexit. time, thetes government updates data on growth. we are joined by mike mckee who says the fed is likely to focus on bad news in the numbe

ramy: and brexit, the date of decision draws near. experts forecast the fallout. >> it will be a shock if we were to leave. i think there is consensus on that. >> there is the freedom to find new markets in the world and take back control. ramy: it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ ramy: hello and welcome. i am ramy inocencio. this is "bloomberg best," the weekly review of most important business news, analysis and interviews from around the world. let's look at the headlines. and we start in the middle east. bloomberg has been reporting on saudi arabia's plan to diversify its economy and actually reduce its dependence on oil. they officially reduced that's released a blueprint for its future. mark: all eyes on saudi arabia, officials unveiling a blueprint for diversifying the economy. the economic shakeup has been led by the deputy crown prince mohammed bin salman, trying to away from the decades-long reliance on crude. take us through this blueprint. what do we know so far? andrew: we are talking about the biggest economi

up next, you've heard the business take on brexit.ics about as former prime minister tony blair intervenes on the debate. ♪ francine: tony blair has said he believes british voters will do the sensible thing and vote to stay in the european union and next months referendum. he spoke to bloomberg at the milken institute conference. prime minister blair: europe has been good for britain and britain has been good for your. and the larger europe, with eastern europe is profoundly important for our security and prosperity. francine: the former u.k. prime minister tony blair. let's stay with the british theme. london goes to the polls tomorrow to select a new may appear at the issue of brexit with one in favor and the other against. let's speak to rob hutton. on theo have you program. first of all, so the referendum is on june 23. president obama showed up. now we hear from tony blair. does any of this sway voters? rob: we certainly have not seen a massive shift in the polls post-obama. so, the short answer is it has not made a big differen

francine: not even for brexit? >> not really. for brexit, the asset management industry is probably the least effective between banks, insurance companies, and management. that is mainly because most of all, it is around our european operations like luxembourg. an investor in germany from italy, luxembourg is their hub, whereas we in the u.k. are definitely -- we would definitely buy u.k. registered funds, or perhaps dublin. we're not going to be hugely affected, but there will be -- if we do votes to come out, there will be some unintended consequences we haven't thought about, and obviously there will be quite a lot of market volatility. francine: market volatility, or could it be something even uglier, like a systemic freeze? could it be a lehman like moment? >> no. i don't think so. it will be very uncomfortable for a few days. currency will be volatile, the share market will be volatile while people try and work out what the effect is. and i think part of that is because markets are really pricing in that we are staying in.

but the dominate theme is really brexit. last week we did see polls indicating that the stay in vote is in the lead. most recent polls were actually suggesting the opposite. and if anything one risk surrounding all of that. we have elections for a new mayor in london today. and may be the end of the honeymoon between johnston and cameron. they are trying to support their candidate but really tomorrow things are back to square one. and i think that the brexit risk should not be underestimated. we have long to go until the actual vote so things could still go either way. our central view is still that brexit will be avoided. that is why we are bullish. that set. the pound, we want to be cautious on the bound. weaker data doesn't help the pound at the moment. it just increases the chance --. that is prudent to be cautious on the pound more near term. >> thank you. valentin marinov. thanks for joining us. >>> shifting focus to brazil. rousseff closer to impeachment. standing trial for breaking budget laws. a committee is expecte

supporters and the opposition on the brexit are going all out.an the threat of economic instability sway the public? turning to an interesting debates out of switzerland, where the government is considering paying each of its citizens two point $5,000 a month, can a conditional basic income spread to other countries? 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., let's head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest. stocks are still fluctuating. julie: not much change overall. even call it makes very easily in terms what we're seeing today. you can see the nasdaq is holding up relatively well versus the other major averages at this point in time. mindsets are changing about the fed, now they're looking to economic data the remainder of the week. take a look at the bloomberg and the imap, you have materials is the best performing group. tech is up as well, but just barely. energy is really the big drag today. it's a push and pull between energy and materials in terms of the group. energy, oil prices are pulling back on more supply in canad

we will talk about the brexit dynamic over the weekend. francine: we have more research and survey saying we should do this or that. let's get to the first word news. in iraq, a series of attacks have killed at least 29 people. 14 died in the attack. a series of bombings killed 15 others. dozens more were wounded. it is the fifth straight day of attacks in or around baghdad. in saudi arabia, john kerry met with -- about conflicts. he is trying to shore up a fragile truce in syria. there have been violations on both sides. discuss syrial again tomorrow with the russian foreign minister. the first time, joint military exercises will be cooperative into -- missile launches from north korea. six weeks to go before the votes. the campaign over whether the u.k. should leave the european union is growing more caustic. invokes hitler's name, supporters arehe losing their compass. president obama took another shot at donald trump. he told graduating students ignorance is not a virtue in politics. trump not mention donald by name, but criticize the

francine, i love your brexit work earlier.papers keep on piling up -- brexit will do this, if we do not leave it will do this. there is a little bit of uneasiness in the markets as the polls are now swayed that the u.k. stay in the eu. if we get a surprise, it may turn into a shock. tom: your "morning must-read" earlier, one of the generals coming out in support of independent britain. we are in support of our first word news in london with nejra cehic. off,: the imf has backed and greece will get its next round of financial aid. creditors averaged agreement that will allow the release of more than $11 billion. greece has taken steps to ease the burden of the country's $358 billion in debt. the imf stood down after insisting that greece's program to fiscalfer a path sustainability. a new report says leaving the european union could force the u.k. to extend austerity measures into the next decade. the study comes from the institute for fiscal studies. it says britain may save a budget deficit of $44 billion if the country leave

they were saying they back a brexit.nd quote/unquote the competitiveness of britain is being undermined from the membership. this coming on the back of imf and other large organizations warning against the brexit. >> it seems to be more than anything, it's the uncertainty. so, yes, it's a great unknown. you can debate the various data projecting economic costs. >> look, nobody knows. nobody knows. by all means get involved. love to hear from you and get your thoughts as well. the referendum date is coming. 23rd of june. let us know what you think. "street signs," the e-mail address, @nancycnbc. @louisabojesen. >>> and adeco ceo expected trade negotiations to drag out for several years. >> if the uk decides to stay in europe, i think after investment it can be decided. if it is not the case, then you will see some negotiation starting, and it will last two or three years before the uk will have new agreements with trade partners. and that's when you will see our customers delaying their decision, or just decide to invest