up next, black rock on brexit. our interview with the ceo of the world's biggest asset manager, next. ♪ anna: the hang seng up by 1.5%. it's generally a fairly risk on session. >> federal reserve officials have cleared dozens of u.s. banks after conducting annual stress tests. mustmorgan stanley which shore up before the fed issues the final birdie got permission to boost its dividend 33%. the sec has opened an investigation into allegations against the outgoing president according to people familiar with the matter. the u.s. regulators looking into whether there was a conflict of interest as well as disclosures to investors. a committee of independent directors cleared him of wrongdoing a day before his resignation. at least three prominent hedge funds -- sought ways to predict the brexit outcome. that's according to a person with knowledge of the firm. discovery capital management developed a model using our rhythms and surveyed voters. it helped generate profits or minimize losses for the firm. that's your bloom

our view is the global recovery will continue, brexit or no brexit.ry effort should be made to strengthen the global recovery. that is going to be the key topic of discussion when g-20 finance ministers meet and just meet in china in july -- meet in china in july. francine: what will the action this week tell us about the state of the world economy? the german tenure going to negative territory for the first time -- german 10 year going to negative territory for the first time? david: i think there are a -- theof factors that safe haven considerations around uncertainties in the world, including brexit. you are right. central bank decisions are likely to be a reflection of central-bank judgments about the strength of recovery. the fed is -- the fed has said its decisions would be data dependent not date dependent. they will be assessing what is going on in the u.s. economy in terms of employment, wages and inflation. they will make their decision -- it would be good news if the economies of the world were strengthening enough for normalization of mone

in favor brexit.e are now getting very precipitous about this. tom: john mills, what do you want fm your labour party? i will be visiting next week into london to join in the hoopla, but what do you want from your labour party? what is their best practice over the next week? john: over the next week i am not quite sure what they can do. in the longer term i think the labour party needs to have a stronger but critical approach to the eu. i think the mistake is that the labour party leaders and parliamentary party and the party as a whole have been so enthusiastic about the european with they have lost touch larger numbers of labor leaning voters who have a different perception. tom: do you risk losing scotland? john: i think it is very unlikely that the result of a brexit would be scotland feeling off. there is not going to be a referendum and less parliament agrees to it that dean's anything, and i think it is likely that parliament would sanction another referendum. if they did, with the smp really w

. >> the word of the day is "brexit." >> brexit. >> brexit. >> brexit. >> the word was "brexit." >> brexit>> brexit. >> brexit. >> larry: brrrrexit. now, you're probably wondering, just what the hell is a brexit? to help us understand it is "the nightly show's" own british chimney sweep, nigel crumpetberry. (cheers and applause) >> hey, what's up, larry! >> larry: nigel! thanks for coming out of the chimney to join us, nigel. >> jordan: roight-o, larry. so could you help us explai >> larry: so you would explain what is a breaks it? >> jordan: why, it's just the u.k. leaving the european union. brexit means "british exit." it's a portmanteau -- like hangry or hiddleswift or boll-jee, which is bollocks and dodgy, two british words that i say because i'm british! >> larry: yeah, we get it, you're british. anyway, nigel, back to the brexit -- how did this happen? walk us through it. >> jordan: thought ye'd never ask, larold! the european union was founded in 1993 to strengthen europe's economies with a single currency, the euro -- ka-ching -- >> larry: and the border agreement, right? >> jorda

economy of the brexit is almost impossible. this is one of the biggest and strongest allies and it's in turmoil. what does that mean for the u.s. economy? that's what we don't know. >> cnn's andrew stevens live in hong kong. what are you seeing? >> well, it's interesting what christine was saying about where the money is going. the money has also been going into the japanese yen, perhaps surprisingly. even though japan's economy is weak, the yen is seen as a safe haven currency. and this, if fact, was the big reason we saw that massive sell-off in the wake of the brexit vote on friday. the nikkei down 8%. today we saw it up 2.4%. and that's because the central bank and the prime minister of japan got together today basically to talk about strategies to keep a lid on the strengthening yen. a stronger yen means more expensive exports to japanese companies. that's why you get the hit on the markets. the yen coming off slightly n that nice pop in the asian markets. pretty much across the board they were up. not spectacularly, but c

brexit concerns.t know whether to outsource but these were banks already troubled and if you have interest rates low in makes it difficult for these banks to start making up money through some of their investments again. we will get back to markets and but first let's go to taylor. taylor: u.k. chancellor george osborne has spoken publicly for the first time since it didn't and it voted to leave the european at union. he said he accepts the decision will only be exit triggered once there is a clear view of the road ahead. judgment, we should only do that when there is a clear view of about what new arrangements we are seeking with meantime, during the negotiations that will follow there will be no change to people's right to travel and work and the way our goods and services are traded or the way our financial system is a regulated. willr: david cameron address today after the shocking decision to leave the european union. robin has announced several new appointments to the shadow cabinet after severa

now that brexit is maybe a more real possibility, let's get to our brexit playbook. what do you do if there is a brexit? tim? >> ewu is the one to play. i think that will come under pressure. i think yields can back up outside of the core. if the world is so bad, it's so bad because italy and spain don't belong in the same play box with germany. that's why the euro won't work. those are trades that make a lot of sense to me. >> i think you do what we saw today happen. buy the dollar any way you feel comfortable buying the dollar. it's a negative bet, a bearish bet on the s&p. if the s&p outperforms in a relative basis, i think the overall market sells off. and the s&p market sells off with it. >> dan? >> i think you look at the euro stocks. to me, i think you have a setup where there's not a lot built in either way for european stocks right now. i think european stocks are actually following their bank stocks, which look horrid at the moment here. i think the fez is where to play over the prior lows. >> if it were to happen, yields which are historically low across t

trump versus brexit.here have been lots of comparisons, not just because of the shared crazy blonde hair of the donald and the boris. let's explore the similarities. the first one does stem from donald and boris. both have a straight-talking nature. celebrity status. that endears them to voters far more than other politicians. second, their supporters tend to be older. also part of smaller businesses or self-employed. and third, there's a definite connection on the issue of immigration, albeit with some important nuances -- differences, excuse me. but i would argue there are some crucial factors that differentiate brexit and the rise of trump. first up, free trade. brexiteers do seek free trade just as much as the remain camp does, they just seek it in a different way. different, too, trump's rise stems with elected political insiders. brexit is about unelected outers. brexit is about sovereignty, american sovereignty, when in doubt whether a clinton presidency or trump presidency. finally, trump's rise i

brexit. if that's what driving the rally, it's premature. i think it's more the u.s. equities are not that affected, but i would also add that turmoil across british politics now is at an all-time high so maybe the raims are premature. >> the only thing i would add is we are going to focus on earnings here. earning season gets underway in the next two weeks. we'll see what commentary we get. thousand quarter looked and how there's the federal reserve. this idea that brexit was such a shock to the markets and potentially to it will system that they could hold off for the rest of the year when it comes to raising rates. interpreting that as a positive. that filters into the u.s. >> indeed. we're going to hear from the bank of england mark carny. that could give an indication of what central banks are thinking in relation to brexit. speaking of the fed, they also released the results of the stress test. most of the big banks passed. among them jpmorgan. bank of america raising the dividend and f

we have to talk brexit. there is this perception out there that the russians, the kremlin could not be more delighted if the u.k. exits because it means a weaker euro. not true? alexander: i think the brits are much wiser than thinking about making criminal he -- making kremlin happy. there are much more serious considerations. i don't think it is so important on the kremlin agenda. there might be someone there who might be personally thinking that something changes under brexit -- ryan: let's forget about persons. alexander: influenced by individual politics. russia plays a big role. whether brussels will be playing the role or some london politician. let's assume that brexit happens , what does change about what britain thinks about russia? nothing. yesterday when i think, without interfering. i think from the point of view of being wise economically, i think the decision to leave would be pretty difficult. it is going to cause detriment to the british economy. i understand some of the considerations of my

is the brexit fear over already? brexit is certainly not good for business but then again, there is this belief on the market at this moment that it will not automatically cause a global recession automatically , but still we have to wait and see if what we are experiencing right now is jet -- is just a debt bounce on wall street or if it is just some relief that we are seeing for longer-term. in the end, we did » street on session highs, that is a good sign and we recovered on wall street a good half of the losses we saw the days prior, meeting on tuesday and wednesday. we covered quite a bit. but so far it is too early to tell that all the turbulences are over. christoph: the driving factor for the u.s. economy is not so much trade with the u.k. as it is consumer spending, and that has increased for the second straight month. what are you as consumers spending their cash on? -- what are u.s. consumers spending their cash on? jens: many big-ticket items like cars but gasoline has increased also was a factor. but ove

back to special brexit coverage.on bloomberg television and radio, and we have breaking news out of the elections from spain. election, ofat fresh boost for the establishment party against and yesterday groups. roger altman a few moments ago, saying that it means this brexit win does not go all the way. david: almost as soon as the referendum was announced, the turn toward spain -- here we are. betty: and there are brand-new pulls in the race for the white house, all of them showing hillary clinton with a lead over donald trump, of the strength of her lead depends on which poll you are looking at. has her with a 12 point edge among registered voters. trump is within five points in nbc. for more, we turn to our washington bureau chief, megan murphy. which one do we believe? megan: good question. these polls show what the big his campaign- manager resigned, controversy over comments about a judge of hispanic heritage. if you believe the 12 point p oll, which showed a similar gap to ours, it shows that it really hurt hi

the brexit is now a fact. britain is getting out. the european union faces the biggest crisis in its history. the bloc has lost a major military power, and its third-largest net income contributor. but after the party, it is time to pay the piper. the economy in britain shrinks an estimated 6%. experts say around 800,000 jobs are in jeopardy. it is ground zero for a political explosion. all over the continent, the hour has struck for euroskeptics, and they start to push for exits, too. prime minister david cameron falls on his sword and resigns, succeeded by leave front man boris johnson, the former mayor of london. and what does the rest of the union do? draw together, or fall to pieces? alan, you were shaking her head listening to the report. tell me why. agree that thei scenario seems to be very realistic, especially the part about what happens to europe. it falls apart. it does not draw together. this is what mr. schaeuble is hoping, what the social democrats, what the lefties in germany are hoping, finally without these pesky br

we are worried about brexit?does it have to do with interest rates remaining lower for longer or does it have to do with the recession? >> it is a little of all of the above. they are getting hit on the revenue side. bringing down the revenue estimates both for the lending side as you have rates possibly getting lower for longer and that on the investment, banking, and training side with the turmoil being called off. with fewer ipos. so it is all that and then on top of that, the potential cost for having to restructure set up more things on the continent. francine: we're looking at some of the trends today. barclays, most of the banks. they lost half of their value. is there anything they need to do either verbally or restructuring that would make their shareholders feel more at ease about what is going on? >> i am not sure there is a whole lot they can say because a lot of it is out of their control. , some of thenomy broader forces here. there is not too much they can't say. they have kind of been saying, we w

red hat, brexit. froms. >> well, look, i think we have a lot to -- i'm going to guess this is going to explode capital spending and that's going to include some i.t. spending. not just in europe, but kind of globally as people wait and see how this settles out. so, for us, what that means is in good time, we set sit here and think about innovation and more difficult time, we sell a value proposition of lower cost, we provide lower value. we may tweak our messaging to our customers a little bit from the innovate and grow to the costs messages. and either way, i feel good about our business for the year. you know, again, we were surprised at the result, we still felt great about the business. we didn't take up guidance, we still feel good about it post brexit vote. >> excellent. president and ceo of red hat. great to talk with you. >> great to chat you. >> slowing capital spending. going to be a theme. have to get used to it. president and ceo of red hat made us a lot of money. stay with us. stay with u

up next, more on brexit.eturn, more on the pound. ♪ manus: brexit in the balance with just two days to vote. separate polls for leave and remain with remain in the lead. the billionaire investor says brexit could make speculators rich, but voters poor. hong kong's richest man tells bloomberg he is still bullish on china. ♪ manus: welcome to "countdown." inm manus cranny into by -- dubai. anna: let's have a look at what is in store. -- remember yesterday was a really strong day and we had a bounce in the pound, almost 2% higher against the u.s. dollar. that really set the tone for risk appetite. that carried over into the u.s. session and asian session. things look mixed at the start of the trading day here. we have had a lot of news around the yen and pound. manus. manus: let's take a look at the risk radar with a little bit of pound and a little bit of dollar yen. top of your screen, you give them back some of that, a little bit of a flurry. george soros talking about brexit saying it could drop 20%. talking

i felt like at the place where they are right now, post brexit, the place where they are post brexit,ort term up side. i still believe over time but, you know, over time is a long time when we really don't know what the fallout will be. when i try to think about our portfolio, i think what are the things that will really be directly affected by brexit. a lot of them will be affected by the markets going down, not really brexit. when i think about the bank holdings, yes, they will be. and so i've been a defender of jpmorgan for a long time. citi bank, sold some jpmorgan. bank america, a lot more u.s. centric so hanging on to that. >> right. >> i feel like i come back to that with other things that seem safer in this market. >> brian kelly, on ""fast money"" i don't know if you could catch it. they said now is the time to buy some of the european banks. this, of course, after the biggest two-day decline 600 bank index in history even for a bounce. can you see the validity in buying the european banks? >> yes, i can, for a dead cat bounce only. in fact, i actually covered some of the sho

data on brexit. ♪ ."n the move will listening to fed president charles evans speaking right now in london. he is talking about divergence, talking about monetary policy. if you want to check it out on the terminally can go to live ,go. and get more from charles evans. final three weeks of campaigning have shown opinion vells for support of the lea campaign catching up to those of the remain campaign. right now, we speak with our guest here in berlin ahead of the brexit vote. formerlye weeks out, on the european commission for the expansion of the euro area, thank you so much for joining us. we will do this in english. let me ask, first of all, from a german for spec if, from the perspective of this country because angela merkel care last night for the first time in strong support of the remain camp, what would a brexit actually mean? >> germany would be a victim of the brexit politically and economically. politically, germany would be isolated in the remaining eu if, would survive the brexit which in my v

pushes ahead with brexit. investors search for safe havens. ♪ safelypeople aboard after a singapore airlines plane caught fire. the star board engine of the -- investigation is already underway in the airline says it is cooperating fully. china is imposing new restrictions on internet search engines requiring them to report band content posted -- content.nned -- banned they will also have to verify advertisers, specify the ratio of pay for search results. the governor said the pboc encourages the development of internet companies but they must comply with banking rules. alibaba's financial has evolved into a finance giant. it controls the nation's largest money market funds. dayal news 24 hours a powered by over 2600 journalists. this is bloomberg. more now on what brexit might mean for investors. oil falling while gold prices rise. joining us is jeff lewis. jeff, people say markets are usually pretty good at pricing and political events such as one like brexit. why were they so wrong this time around? closeth

after a brexit we cannot do it all here.'t know if it means 1,000 jobs, 2,000 jobs, it could be as many as 4,000, and it will be jobs both all around the uk. as you know, the most important thing for me is to take care of our people we want to take care of our people, take care of our clients i don't want you to worry about it but when you vote, you should be thinking about something like that. nsigh. insights that help investors predict market closes, well before markets close. you know, your analysis has helped us improve our predictive accuracy by over 500%. 550.2, to be precise, but we can always do better. i like your attitude watson. 5this man creates software, wto protect this customer, who lives here and flies to hong kong, to visit this company that makes smart phones, used by this vice president, this little kid, oops, and this obstetrician, who works across the street from this man, who creates software. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb

in as a survey asked the fallout of brexit.his is "daybreak asia" ♪ ." ♪ emergency talks in tokyo, the government and boj meeting to discuss the strengthening yen and the implications of brexit. europe tells the u.k. to invoke article 50 by tuesday amid speculation leaders never had a plan. gold has seen a two-year high, the referendum results announced. meet tobankers to discuss this outcome. there is concern that the fragile recovery has been damaged. >> coming to you live, i am yvonne man. in newi am betty liu york. we are watching this emergency meeting by the bank of japan. i saw the yen just come off slightly from the highs, where broke through that 100 level. really raising these questions as to how the japanese will deal with a stronger yen. thate: market stability, is the topic of this emergency meeting. we are also hearing that south korea could be addressing some market stabilization as well and see if measures will be needed. out of trillion wiped global stocks on friday. it looks like we could see some more bleedin

showed the brexit vote the u.k.ned its back on the principle of free movement of people and added that when a country abandons one of the eu's key pillars, you lose the advantage that goes with it. mark carney warned a vote for brexit would trigger a recession and now it seems it is on the way. almost three quarters of respondents conducted after britain voted to leave the eu say the economy will slip into recession for the first time since 2009. the majority predict the bank of england will add more stimulus including cutting interest rates. japan's top decision-makers have met to discuss the impact of the uk's decision to leave the eu. the prime minister told reporters that he will mobilize all possible measures following the brexit vote. the bank of japan governor said the central bank can add funds to the market as needed. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: i will get on to the referendum and just a couple of seco

brexit is compounding that.: we have been trying to get our heads around how central bankers will react in the coming weeks to the brexit market impact. projectionsee the for an interest rate cut here? peter: i think it is increasing significantly, particularly because of the stimulus package. many analysts believe there will be another cut. there was a cut earlier this month which was a surprise. nobody expected it except for one analyst. this time around, considering brexit, the revised economic forecast, there is a big chance that there will be another rate cut in the second half. yusef: we will see how it plays out. korea's $17 south billion stimulus plan. coming up, as india's air rules are relaxed, singapore is broadening its outlook and expectations. we will hear from the aviation risk and safety advisory firm about what it means for the gulf. that is only here on bloomberg markets: middle east. ♪ rishaad: you are back with bloomberg. i'm rishaad salamat in hong kong. yousef: a quick round up for you of t

plenty of brexit events today.t 9:00 this morning, addressing the european parliament at the start of the exit. half an hour later, angela merkel will deliver a speech to the german parliament on the same subject. eu leaders are scheduled to meet officially in brussels later and then the european commission will also discuss brexit. a lot of talking going on today. later this morning, a bloomberg explosive --exclusive. ervyn king will be with us. jonathan hill stepped away from the commission. that is here on countdown at 7:00 u.k. time. up next, british prime minister david cameron goes to brussels for what promises to be an uncomfortable dinner with eu leaders. ♪ ♪ anna: welcome back. 7:30 in brussels. the summit to address the brexit fallout will get underway today with eu leaders. yesterday, the leaders of the euro area's biggest economies say they are keen to living for quickly to eliminate market uncertainty. meeting just a few days after a very painful and regrettable -- the citizens of great britain to leav

if brexit wednesday the day, -- if brexit wins the day, it is more likely that remain will win. if brexit wins, the rating which is still aaa with a negative outlook on the u.k. would go down. if remain is the winning faction, you need to see what comes thereafter. the initial expectation of hope of the prime minister has been this referendum could help to heal old wounds in the party and in society. this may or may not happen right now it looks as if the campaign has become pretty personal. it is hard to see how they can kiss and makeup. we will observe the markets. guy: the politics are affected? morris it is the part -- -- >> will economic policies be impacted. we are of the view that u.k. has one of the strongest governance standards and visibility in the world. will this persist? history has a cautionary tale that goes back a long time. in the 19th century after the repeat of the corn laws. .t is pretty similar yet the conservatives in the prime minister, forgot his way but a few months later his government was finish. thes quite difficult from current perspective to see wh

david cameron after that brexit vote. .et's get reaction we were hoping to find out more about brexitwe're hoping to find out if they have a plan. he stayed well away from that. gilles: i was hoping to be that specific when he was asked about brexit earlier this morning. he said it was sad. he did not elaborate. it is not exactly the right forum for him to do this. there is going to be this european meeting tonight which is interesting to him. francine: we are getting live pictures. i don't know about relax but her demeanor -- angela merkel talking to shop the -- addressing the parliament. if you look at such a banks, the scottish representatives seem to have dominated in the u.k. with decisiveness. who is the leader in europe? gilles: at this stage it remains angela merkel. on howarly set the tone we would handle collectively the discussion. she sounded fairly gracious, willing to allow some time. she was very clear that it is the divorce proceeding, not the beginning of a patch up attempt. she is still setting the tone as far as central banks go. it is quite clear they have the arse

as i say, as far as the brexit process itself is concerned, the ball is in britain's court.ritain will decide when the article 50 process can begin. what we see there will define the terms. will they want to be in and out of the european single market and all that that implies? from the european side, and that was clear from the leaders today, what is needed is now a demonstration of unity and a demonstration as they see it -- europe does have answers for the challenges of the future. brent: in spain, the acting prime minister has claimed a victory in the second general election to be held there in six months. the vote came after he fell in his attempts to build a coalition government. but he will find a coalition partner if he is to stay in power. his conservative popular party won a hundred 37 seats in parliament, that is 40 short of a majority. his closest rivals, the socialist and have ruled out a coalition, as have the leftist alliance and the liberal. reporter: spaniards were not surprised by the election results. many had feared the victory of brexit supporters would

downturn we could see following brexit.ly, we have, what i is a single aviation market in europe. this is what easyjet's ceo is worried about. she wrote to british officials, asking them to prioritize that single market, and this allows u.k. carriers to fly freely over europe. it will be interesting to see where that comes into the negotiations. yousef: anna: low-cost airlines have businesses that go to russia, north africa, but still very important for them to maintain this access to the european area. this?nners in if this is going to be tough for iag, do any of the rivals win out? thatrie: the airlines the gulfs family with, carriers, this could be a win for them. they have been squeezing the european carriers, and this could help them. as the u.k. sorts at what they are doing with the european single market, this could be a good time for the gulf carriers to squeeze them more. anna: with all the uncertainty at the moment in the u.k., it is difficult to imagine anyone approving of a runway at heathrow. it's hardly a prio

the official talks would be about brexit.xpect there to be an opening speech from draghi about that. can,dence as much as it and try to describe what could be the policy response in europe. officially again, looking at the conference, the program is all about management officials in general. , speaking of policy response, we already see on this coming out with their -- we already see economist coming out with their expectations. goldman sachs predicting a rate cut in the boe as asset purchase cuts in. usually what we see from the ecb's experience so far with its renewed bond purchases, what can we expect on the ec -- boe? will there be any change in a situation like this? frederik: that is difficult to say. they are the most likely choice for the rates from england, positive. they have limited room to maneuver, but they could choose a rate that helps the banking sector, do stuff with liquidity. you already have in place those arrangements between central banks that we think they have this already. they could pride that provid

this is very much the brexit story, the anti-brexit story.ally in spurred a high-yield currencies, up by point -- at 1.459 3. the aussie, the kiwi, emerging markets, the euro, all of these getting a little bit of a reprieve because of the polling. the expression of risk sentiment that we saw last week in the pound versus the yen, that is reversing a little bit as well. in there as well, the indian rupee. over the weekend, we heard that rajan is going to be leaving at the end of his term at the end of september. the r.b.i. selling dollars. that is according to traders in india this morning. manus: let's talk about some of the other asset classes. 2-year note's, the yield is rising. perhaps the most highly correlated with the view of what happens next in the united states in terms of interest rate rises. yellen talking about a new normal. chicago talking about leaving rate hikes off the table until we had 2%. a mismatchrd says between what we are saying and doing. are still at the second-biggest long position ever on record. positions up 29%. c

is this brexit? >> it is all brexit right now.going to see oil trade not on fundamentals but on brexit. seeing it you are today is all the positivity that there won't be a brexit. there is more risk aversion to this market place right now. what you are going to see is an opportunity for investors or actually get long oil on any sort of get that we are going to see if rex it doesn't happen. david: how cheap could it go on about to leave. >> 46 will be the next stop. will -- you will see big buyers coming in because again, the oversupply issue, that is kind of balancing out now. we need to get oil trading back on its own merits rather than on brexit. you will see the gut reaction right away on any sort of brexit dies down,verything once the shakeout falls out of that 43 and a half-44 level. brexit, i would expect that we see oil shooting on a big rash move to the upside. david: do the fundamental support that 53-54. a balanced now between supply and demand which is what we want to see and that is what it has been shifting to. soly o

as the on of brexit -- bomb of brexit bedlam. where will brexit take me to in gold? sterling terms, it's up 26%. that is doing 5% better than the counterparts in the u.s.. the big story in all markets is brexit will stop for me, -- brexit. for me, the biggest two weeks ahead since the global financial crisis. i think the fact that $15 billion has moved into gold so in in 2016 is a 30% increase holdings around the world. it is telling me that there is something big on the horizon. that we could see gold, you asked me where gold was going, i think a brexit takes us to 1500 or 1600. but a stay vote would probably see it as low as 1100. rishaad: let's actually go to the physical demand for gold. we've got the indian festival season coming up, but china is now an even bigger player. how does that change the complexion of your daily view of what is going on in the gold market? guest: first of all, physical never drives the gold price. i think you are right to focus on china and india. countries,se two big they account for almost 70% of total physical demand. at this time,

up next, the brexit risk.e live with the multis prime maltese -- with the prime minister. >> already england's market -- commodity markets [indiscernible] price ande oil utility partly low survive. this is the basis of our project. as it europe met this decision -- five to seven years. during this five to seven years, everybody [indiscernible] nonconfidence in the market. normal volatility of indices. francine: that was alex eight look i have speaking to ryan chilcote. with us is stephen gallo. thank you for talking -- actually sticking around. we talked about the impact that brexit would have and a little bit about central-bank divergence. what is your take about any commodity related currency? i know you look at canadian dollar. where do we go from here? view or average oil price next year is around $53 a barrel for brent. ultimately 125 and dollar cad, despite the governor of the bank of canada's recent optimism is a good area to be cad.ng along with dollar supply issues are not going to go away and oil. ca

and now it's nato post brexit.fore the nato summit i don't think much of the world would have paid attention to what happens in warsaw despite the russian saber rattling, but now people are going to see it as a sign of president obama's intent to reinforce transatlantic relationship after brexit. at the moment he's planning to meet with three eu leaders, the head of the eu council, the commission and the parliament. but we're hearing rumblings of people putting some pressure on the white house he should meet with all the european leaders and talk to them about what a crucial moment this is for us all to hang together. so i think that nato summit is going to be one of the biggest in nato's history. >> okay. we appreciate it, fred kemp of the atlantic council. fred, good stuff. see you soon. >> thank you. >>> all right, folks, it is another big down day for most of your stock investments most likely. the trillion dollar question now is, what do you do in the weeks, months and even years ahead? we'll try to answer tha

the brexit break. u.s. fed gives -- the us-led skip stage and hike. -- it'll intervene in fx markets. -- the boe ist expected to keep rates today. the growth may not be referendum on related -- referendum related. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters, i am francine lacqua. we have a great show lined up. couldng to chris ailman also joining us later on, maurice leavy. will be spinning to alex a mordashov. all our exclusive interviews. let's get straight to the markets. -- the the picture european stocks. i want to see you again at 103.9. there is more concern after central banks japan spurred concern that the global economy is losing momentum. refraining from using monetary policy. this get to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic, nara. nejra: the yen jumped to a 22 month high and japan extended losses. governor kuroda says he will not hesitate to ease further. the swiss national bank has kept interest rates unchanged, conserving animation -- conserving am

: the keys to brexit's investment and trade.ng is that if britain were to leave the eu, there would be so much so -- so much uncertainty about relations in trade with european nations, employers would hold investment back. when you hold investment bank, that's when you hold investment back, there will be less employment. francine: but it is said this is not about economics. this is about sovereignty and about immigration. christopher: i just do not see that. it is about economics. when you are a nation in a global economy, in a globalized world, you have to have trade agreements and other agreements of corporations. let's face it, britain is not as big as china, the united states. very soon, india. traits with to have the european union. what it has now, there are agreements made by the european ,nion, including britain finding various actions. it is something that democratic governments have elected to do. withyour definitive paper they'll mortensen is on job --ation and job destruction job disruption. cyprus.from what was it l

brexit vote. speaking after a meeting of the say a scottish referendum is very much close on the table. she also said the government will set up an advisory panel on the legal and financial issues of such a move. german chancellor angela merkel has spoken out again this morning on the uk's vote to leave the eu. she says britain needs to set out the future ties with the body, and she discussed post brexit ability and her party meeting. she says she wants good, factual brexit negotiations. the leader of the uk's labour party has ruled out supporting a second brexit referendum. jeremy corbyn made the comments in this speech when britain voted to easily the you -- to leave the eu. he said he could not leave the farage debate to nigel and boris johnson. he also spoke about his future in the labour party. >> if there is a leadership contest, will you run again? >> yes, i am there. thank you. [applause] john h.: as the financial services commission -- mark: johnson has stepped down from his role. he says

and brexit. he is in st. petersburg.ian: the economy is definitely improving but it is a far cry from what it was and what they would like to see. chart of theice oil price branch to be specific. the bright blue line is russian gdp. so has the russian economy. we got an uptick in the oil price. coming in on the back of that. we are still a negative growth. we have only seen one quarter of russia wouldth need to to emerge from recession that it is in. russian that the economy is heavily dependent on the oil and gas price. this is what people need to see continue the investors that are here. i would point out though in addition that russian growth even if we get to 1% that is very different from what we were seeing just five or six years ago when the norm was closer to seven or 8% with oil above $100 per barrel. rishaad: what is it like in the moment compared to previous years. who is attending this conference? yan: there is a decent roster of folks of this conference. the president of the european commission is going to b

if brexit happens, it will be detrimental to the u.k. investment fund in the middle east, they have wharf,s, canary manchester city. would he have more holdings or less? 54.are looking at 146 saros is talking about a dramatically changed fx market from back in the day. rishaad: that was 1992. the thing is, he made a lot of money off it. when he talks about the pound, people listen. a quick check when it comes to the session. mumbai has been trading for 20 minutes. we did have a flat opening in the asia-pacific. seng up by .5%. the pacific, about an hour away from the open. monday.the close this is the situation after gains after the merger was announced sunday. we saw some of those being wiped off. by .3%.i off the kuwait market is off. % gains.rs, .25 bear run for egyptian stocks continuing. to speedt's get up with the other stories making headlines around the world. ros, good morning. asalind: imf called for an benomics reload, saying growth remains out of reach and will not be achieved within a government time to. came to power in 20

those outside of london will vote for brexit.ving just london and the celts. >> i think sara has a question. >> peter, my question is this odd situation we find ourselves in the cycle, we're seeing it here in the u.s., and that is the higher degree you have, especially if you have a ph.d. it seems the less the population is willing to listen to you. politicians, now as influential. the elite, the backlash against the elite. this morning, we're going to find out why david beckham says he's voting to remain in the eu. i just wonder who carries water. who do people actually listen to these days when it comes to when to sway to vote in or not? >> sara, you're absolutely right. there's a distrust among politicians. some of the backlash that's going on over the referendum is the status of the supposedly independent experts. the governor of england, mark carney, and very highly respected, both mark carney and the institute says there will be big economic risks of brexit. so the brexit camp is saying all experts are tainted. they're bias

but with the brexit, that goes out the window.f we get through this, are we looking at a better economy or a more aggressive deal? coming up, the ramifications of a brexit if it does happen. this is a special edition of "what'd you miss?" ♪ mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. bernie sanders is all but ignored you that hillary clinton will be the democratic residential nominee. in a c-span interview he was asked what role he will play at the democratic national convention. sanders: a does not look like i will be the nominee, so i will not be determining the scope of the election. i will happily be meeting with secretary clinton. >> how did it go? senator sanders: pretty well, we served together. mark: he wants to lead a pensions committee next year. in the meantime, the vermont senator will be in new york tomorrow to address voters in a speech entitled "where we go from here." hillary clinton has received an endorsement from a national security adviser under presidents gerald ford and george h.w. bush. he say

the odds checker says that 25% probability of a brexit.nd the great undecided will perhaps decide the risk and reward. julius, they say that this is a most accurate forecast and it could drop because of the brexit . goldman sachs says they could drop 11%. taking your mind back to the risks in the market, but the view of what is at risk, 1980-1985, that is when it dropped by 55% over that time. and it took a lot to change the direction of that. and a lot to play for in these dying hours, before the polls open at 7:00 a.m. london time. rishaad: just under two hours before the first of its head -- first votes. taking a look at sterling. this is what we have got right now. and it is also playing out in this part of the world because volumes essentially, they are very thin trading out there. people of course standing by the sidelines, waiting for a decision on this. let's get to what is happening, looking at the index of indian shares. this is what we have. it looks like sand sex is up. topics -- topix coming back from the lunch break. and the

brexit. i don't know.lfred you still think the polls are understating the remain. >> the crucial difference there is of course the betting odds when we look at that 60/40, it totals a hundred. when we see the polls are leading with leave. it's like for example 46 to 44 so there is still that portion of undecided and people fear that undecided portion is likely to go with remain because of the certainty. >> that is a big assumption. >> it is. but that is what people are saying. that is what the money is saying. that is what sterling and the betting market for me is for me is probably the most likely to focus on in the coming days. >> did you ever see caddie shack? >> no. >> i don't know what that is. >> you are like the dalai lama ma who has had not seen it. >> i am like the dalai lama. i agree joe. and on that wonderful note i'm going to to say we'll see you again in 9 mooinutes time. >> don't be afraid. >> indeed. >> and the bank of japan holding off on further easing. just as the fed signals the plan to

. >>> this sunday, brexit. trump and clinton. the brits are getting out and immigration was the main cause. what might it mean for the u.s. presidential election this november? >> great similarities between what happened here and my campaign. people want to take their country back. >> the consequences for britain, europe, and the united states. >>> plus, one by one, prominent republicans are abandoning trump. is it still possible the dump trump movement could succeed? his campaign chairman paul manafort is with me this morning. >>> also, our brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll on the state of the race. >> and the veep steaks. who's on trump's short list for vice presidents and what about clinton's? i'll talk to the senator everyone assumes is at the very top of the clinton list, tim kaine of virginia. >> are you qualified to be commander in chief? >> joining me for insight and analysis are doris kearns goodwin. helene cooper of the "new york times," chris cillizza of the washington post, and kimberley strassel of the "w

brexit in the speech. instead, draghi stressed the importance of an alignment of global policy. have a look. >> we have to think not just about whether or domestic monetary policies are appropriate, but whether they are properly aligned across jurisdictions. we have to think not just about the composition of policies within our jurisdictions, but about the global composition that can maximize the effects so our respected mandates can best be delivered without over burdening further monetary -- without overle burdening further monetary policy and so as to limit any destabilizing spillovers. >> clearly with the financial turmoil, there is an effort here particularly from the european central bank and bank of england, mark carny to try and reassure the markets. emphasize calm and stability. when you talk about political con tay gent, i know you're going to be watching the leaders around you to see how they react, but it really is mario draghi that is the safe guard of the euro because what they share is the e

it has nothing to do with brexit. this is a stock that has never traded in tandem with the rest of the stocks. >> in term of the big three automakers, we've seen them decline sharply. what is their exposure there? >> it depends. the european automakers have the largest exposure. dime lehr, fiat has more exposure there relative to its global sales than ford and gm. ford and gm have strong presence in europe and both have just now getting back to break even and a slight profit if r ford. the concern being they're going fall back to losing money in europe and it continues to be a drag. yes, their profits in north america are not expected to fall soon, but if you're an investor, you have to say for how much longer can we count on north america coming through for gm and ford. >> you brought up tesla, so i'm going to ask the question. what percentage roughly, were a big percentage from europe? because it seems like a heck of time to try to launch a mass market vehicle at a time when europe b growth expectations are being ra

this is his verdict on the brexit though. brexit is not actually about the end of globalization. on the contrary is about people, that rebel against the arrogant elite and the financial centers. because if you go to england, london is doing well. the financial sector in london is doing well. the asset economy is doing well. -- people are not doing well anna: he went on to talk about the way asset prices have been pushed out by the central banks. you can blame central banks for that. you can blame government for not acting, to fill the vacuum. who would you say should carry some of the blame? do you think central banks have been left to do too much? the government should be doing more? or the wrong policies, just creating asset inflation, not real benefits for people in the street. peter: i think particularly in a place like the u.k. that is sort of a little bit less obvious. if you ask the continent of europe, should the policymakers have done more to address the problems on the ground? i was a certainly, yes. whether that is true globally remains to be seen. but i can come back