the man himself, bill gross of janice henderson what are you seeing that makes you so convinced that this 25-year incredible run is over >> well, several thing, briant's like your tanker analogy and very slow moving and i use the analogy in terms of coffee it's not a strong, colombian bear market. it's a decaffeinated bear market where the yields on the ten-year would probably rise 10 to 20 basis points for the year, but nonetheless it means that yields are probably moving higher as opposed to lower as they have been for the bulk of the 25-year period that you cite now, what do i see that presents that possibility first of all, i see nominal growth in the united states increasing from where it's been to 5% due to tax cuts and increasing deficit i see the u.s. treasury and this is interesting i haven't heard this yet on news wires increasing from a $500 billion net issuance to a trillion dollar net issuance in 2018 primarily because of the deficit and i see central banks cutting back on the quantitative easing and the ecb is cutting theirs in half and by the end of the year they entirely eliminate it and the flush of money is being met with a flush