fargo'shear from wells brian jacobson. this is bloomberg. ♪ host: optimism over progress on the virus exiting continues to says shots u.s. could start in three weeks. despite that, our next guest is wary of surprises. joining us is brian jacobson. thank you for your time. not surprising given we continue to see these warnings, from global organizations including the imf saying the global recovery could start fading. our chart showing the latest forecast. there is still a contraction of more than 4% or the world economy. how will this affect the markets ? there still seems to be a disconnect. brian: there is a lot of excitement over the vaccine use and rightfully so. the sooner we can widely distribute it, the sooner we can get back to ordinary life. the problem is we should -- we first have to get through winter. this is setting us up for some downturn economic surprises. most of the story has been positive surprises. there was a wide expectation you would see consumer spending taper off but it did not happen. there contin