brian levitt, we make a joke about it with 4000 rate increases. it's quadratic and not linear. ation on when it slams and really begins to affect president trump. brian: directionally we know we are going higher. tom: give me the quadratic. brian: good slams in went ten-year rates start to converge on short-term rates and the dollar rallies. tom: i know what you are going to say, david. it's a real rate analysis. david: it always is. real rates have been negative for too long. the outcome with the timing and perfect is never good for inflation. and i think to the question, if the 10 year goes to 3.5 and fed funds go to for, and the curve goes inverted, 10 and 12 times we get a recession. againsts really pushes it and peter coy had a spectacular article for "business week" a couple weeks ago. there's a point where the old economics -- these guys are too young to know the old economics. we get back to normal, don't we? marty: normal means there's a business cycle that says a recession is due. trump, who celebrates the stock market, has never really talked about the bond market. he

. >> thank you for joining us, jeff kleintop and brian levitt >>> let's get to carl at the winter olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. good morning, carl. >> reporter: hey, mike what a day it's been for the americans once again mikaela shiffrin in this case winning gold in the women's giant slalom 22 years old from vail, colorado, of course, one of the stars of these games she finished fifth in this event in sochi but wins gold here after an amazing run and then an emotional period once she got to the bottom of the hill later on, they caught up with mikaela shiffrin and asked her how she's managing with all the pressure any kind of worry or doubt. >> i'm always having doubts. i mean, yeah, it's not easy to have -- you know, there's 24 hours in every day, and every hour i probably have, every minute i have a million feelings of doubt, but i also have a million feelings of confidence and inspiration. so it's just a battle between having the right mood at the right time and always fighting that feeling of doubt. and yeah, for sure, i thought maybe i can't do it. what if i can't? and then i t