. >> joining us, brian levitt, senior involvement strategist, brian guard yer from washington researchd steve liesman and john harwood we have quite the panel for you this morning steve, i want to start with you. the q4 number, much better than expected how does it sum up 2018 and how does it take us into 2019? >> pretty good number. you had a little more on the business side, a little at odds with monthly data, we'll square that out over time a big boost from government, big boost from inventory, little drag on trade. nice to see it not weakening as much as expected i see forecasts for first quarter come down, we'll get more as the day goes by. we're looking for below trend growth in the first quarter. see if people decide they were wrong in the fourth quarter that they'll be a little wrong to the up side in the first quarter that's not the case yet. however you get there, as long as you get to the place you need to go. it was a weakening fourth quarter but strong above trend growth. >> there's different methodologies how people are calculating this, where it stands in terms of the tr