brian monroe is the editor of cnnpolitics.com, and he is in washington right now and joining us. n, start with a new national poll, the nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows president obama at 47% compared to 43% for mitt romney. given the margin of error, that's basically a tie, but with a slight edge maybe, and is that surprising to you? >> that has him tied on the national level, but also as we look at the individual states, it is a close race and will be for the next four or five months and even in the cnn poll of polls, we have the president up really almost tied at 48 to 44. even there, that has really played or stayed the same over the past few weeks. >> talk about the battleground states and it is interest, because one of them, florida, a conservative state, and polls showing that president obama, the president is leading in key battleground states, pennsylvania, and florida and ohio. is this significant to predict that this is where the race will be won or last? >> well, florida is going to be a tight state. i has traditionally leaned a little bit more conservative, b