let's now get market reaction with brian reynolds. chief market strategist. brian a pleasure to have you on so early this morning. >> let's talk about china. beating expectations. what are your thoughts on china's gdp number this morning? >> their problem is they set their economy up to make stuff for the west and the west is sluggish. we're not buying stuff from china the way we used to. when your major customers have a slow down you have a slow down as well. >> could you think the slow down in china could weigh on earnings? this is a big week for u.s. corporate earnings. s&p companies due to report. >> probably not. china in terms of u.s. companies exposure it's been growing but it's not a major force in their earnings. what is a big force has been buy backs and the more companies buy their stock back the higher their earnings per share growth will be. they were enormous last year and will be this year. that helps boost earnings. i know it's artificial but that's the way the game is played on wall street. >> do we expect the buy backs to continue if we conti

reynolds joining us. thank you for joining us. brian, let me kick off with you.ou say here that it's very important for people to understand where we've been on oil and the fact that the fall has been triggered by the removal of financial speculation on a very large scale. can you talk us through what you mean by that and what the inch employer indications of florida now are as we seek to find a bottom some. >> i've been on this network a number of times talking about the commodity bubble. wall street subprimed commodities. in other words, they wrap them in the same type of structure that they wrap mortgages in the last cycle and that they rapped fiberoptics for world camom before that. when these deals explode, the commodity that has been securitized plunges. they hide the assets. and all of a sudden the deals come unraveled. wall street structured the equivalent of $22 trillion worth of commodities through otc commodity derivatives and now they're unwinding. and the thing to keep in mind is this is a permanent decline for probably 5 to 10 years. the fed thinks

to be very careful as an entity to raise rates trillions of dollars of security i's let's add brian reynolds to the conversation. happy new year to you, brian. beginning this segment, we asked our viewers if they see a good year for the stock market in 2015 or not. initially the vote was very bullish. about 70% said yes. now it's tipping the other direction. it is about 50-50. where do you stand? do you see another -- a sechbtd good year in a row for the u.s. equity markets here? >> i think 2015 is like 2014 but on steroids. overall, it's going to be a good year for stocks but there's more volatility. we had about five panicky selloffs last year and probably more than that and a couple are probably going to be more intense than what we saw last year. >> what would cause that brian? >> a rocky ride. >> what would cause that? why would we have those kinds of selloffs do you think? >> well the fed thinks they're going to tighten and every time the fed begins a tightening cycle, there's a panicky selloff in stocks. we had a commodity bubble. i'm on this program for years saying that wall street

and brian reynolds from rosen blatt you've had on from time to time says oil could go to 20 dollars andset that you are watching first when you wake up in terms of where the market is going? and at what point did it become a bad thing? it waivers from a big -- >> it was the extent. initially it was going to be a benefit. everybody was using the phrase a tax break at pump. and things were going to get better but it has come down somewhat violently. it is going to impact things. the high yield indicators have moved up. people are concerned ma thab 15% of the high yield debt is involved somehow. fracking and oil and energy. and will people be able the to pay it back. we have fears in the background. it is not panic but there is concern. and more a buyers boycott today than heavy selling. >> and when the year is done there will be a minus sign in front of returns one is saying the good times are over. what context do we put around that? he is a bond guy. >> i understand that. he's had quite a record over 40 years. and i think what he sees is deflationary pressure. i think behind that statem

brian reynolds who i love saying it could be 20 bucks for a decade. what do you do then?g to have producers who are going to get gobbled up by bigger producers, not making it in the storm. $20 oil, i don't know many models that show that sustainable. >> i don't know many models that saw this coming. this is -- this conversation is driving me crazy. it doesn't feel like this is about what's really going on out there. why are we looking at this? clearly the dynamic is mott appreciated by models or anybody in the market. >> i think the tipping point occurred when we reached 9 million barrels and saudi didn't cut. i think that there's just too much oil in the market. demand is flat. countries and concern and a number of things in the perfect storm basket driven the price down. i don't think it should have come down this fast based on fundamentals of 1.5 million barrel oversupply in the market and you have traders and spectaculars driving it down. >> turning to the panel here. >> nicholas it's dan greenhaus. chris just brought up how japan is in a recession and europe and othe

. >> let's bring in brian reynolds and gregory. gentlemen, good to see you.nks for being with us. greg, we've seen this movie before. compare to what we've been through the last six years. any big differences that you anticipate to happen as a result of what they're going to go through now? >> what i think is interesting is that the ecb is introducing qe about five years after the fed did. so the first thing to keep in mind is that do not expect the european economy to start roaring the next month or two. look at how long it's taken for the united states to respond. the second thing which is more positive is i think the ecb has learned from a bit of the fed's trial and error most importantly that this is an open ended commitment. and that the condition for stopping is not when they have reached a certain size but when they have growth and inflation back on some positive trajectory. to my mind that's a single most important reason to be bullish about today's announcement. >> brian do you think at some point we'll catch up and be reflected in higher bond yields