brian west berry, chief economist at chief advisors. good to have you with us. let me start with top pick number one of the day, that is what the fed may or may not do. if you have the economy growing 3.6% and a good jobs number tomorrow, as many anticipate with the adp number and jobless claims today and a budget deal washington may hit as early as next week, why wouldn't the fed begin to cut back on buying bonds this month at their next meeting and week after next? >> i think they will. there is only really one reason that they wouldn't, and remember, what the fed is going to do is end the purchases of bonds. they will taper that. it will take awhile to do that, but they want to convince markets they will keep the short-term interest rate at zero for a long time. when you try to do both of those things, it's kind of a complicated process, but i think they are going to try to do it. as long as they believe they can do that, they will start soon with the tapering. everybody knows quantitative easing was put in during a crisis and we no longer have a crisis in th