and the bric fault lines don't only concern numbers. for its members are fierce competitors and serious mistrust abounds - which is a barrier to enhancing trade and economic cooperation. >>zweig: well the chinese don't trust the indians at all. the indians don't trust the chinese. the 1962 border war seared, forever seared, the brains of indian policy makers. brazilian businessmen complain, over the last couple of years that china came - hu jintao the leader of china visited - promised all kinds of money, left - and then everybody said, where's the money? >>reporter: it's one of those strange historical quirks that now, with their economies so interdependent, china can cooperate easier with america than with its neighbours. as for russia, it does little to garner confidence. the government appears hostile to capital while its military posture is aggressive - as if confidentthat the volatile great bear has oil and gas as leverage. but russia and other oil exporters should be aware that the past year's global turmoil has focused the minds

i'm starting to see more of an allocation into emerging markets but not necessarily looking at the bric nations but more conservative returns noose places like australia, south africa and canada. >> michael, we'll catch you soon. thank you. >>> coming up on mast money," former chairman of the president's economic council ed la zeer joins "fast money" to talk bernanke, the budget and rick santelli takes on howard dean on the obama care plan. can america really afford a government-backed plan. fast money is live at 5:00, maria. >> a lot of clapping because the energizer bunny is walking around the floor. the bunny will be ringing the closing bell along with the ceo ward cline and energizer bunny ringing the bell in celebration of the bunny's birthday. 20 minutes before the close. the market higher up 45 points. there he is. he's going and going and going. >> up next, we're talking health care reform with the chairman and ceo of medtronic to tell us how a potential public option could impact the medical device maker's growth. >> after the bell, a first on cnbc with council of economic advi

those are the bric countries. so if you ask me where i'm spending my time, spending a time getting a read on financials, getting a read on commodities and trying to figure out what's happening in the emerging markets and is that gdp growth doable and if it is doable any up side we get, if japan's not a disaster, the u.s. is not a disaster, europe's not a disaster, actually have a fairly constructive backdrop. >> so what do i need to look at in terms of those emerging markets? put together a portfolio for me you that believe is going to be a winner when you look all around the world. you're talking about the bric countries, brazil, india, russiaa, china. russia is still one of the ones you want to be invested? i recognize as oil goes higher it's positive but russia was sort of the outlier there for a little while. >> i'd say we're most focused, you know, at morgan stanley investment management we have an investment emerging markets portfolio manager rushi sharma. i agree with him. we very much like the india story.

bric. let's take a look at some of the day's research calls. the latest upgrades and downgrades. qlogic upextra graded to center perform because of an expansion in profit margins and stronger demand due to a new intel product. yum brands downgraded to neutral from buy at ubs. analysts concerned about sluggish sales that the owner of the fast food chains. and dnagy cut. scott? >> and michelle, it's such a critical time for investors weigh thought we would bring back in the two davids, david darst, chief investment strategist with morgan stanley, david furle. we left off the conversation a few minutes ago saying we thought the market was going to go down. retail sales coming out this week. it's going to be a key thing for investors to digest. david if your lick to get a pretty good read on the consumer. >> the consume ser is going to still be pretty weak. one of the interesting issues has been the cash for clunkers. consumers are buying a durable if they can get one of those cars which is going to take away from more discretionary purchases, apparel, other retail. it's going to be

many analysts are saying overseas there's a b-shaped recovery already coming out of asia and the brics, but all of that is not rosy in washington. that's the downside of the story. but right now i am focussed on the good news. the gospel, the bull market recovery and that's where we're going tonight all night. we have ceos, market traders, chalk board charts, and everything. stay with me, friends. we're going to make some money together while we still can. first up, the new bull market in stocks has gone all the way back to last autumn. i think it's headed to pre-lehman last summer. cnbc's brian joins us, the full rundown on the story. you were working hard today.y. >> you know, larry, it's not about technicals or fundamentals, it's also psychological levels. i'll tell you what i'm talking about. when it comes to the s&p 500 and the dow, these are levels we have not seen since november the 5th. that number, of course, over 1,000 on the s&p 500. we go to the nasdaq over 2,000, we haven't had a close at that level since october the 1st. so that's where we are psychologically. i want to s

up 9% in china and bric up 16%. markets and the united states doing very well for this company. >> jim goldman, i've enjoyed talking to you this week. >> always a pleasure, rick. thanks so much. >> i love dell right now. i like what jimmy is talking about. i love the growth and i believe in the cycle. what you do is the puts will get absolutely slammed tomorrow. volatility will come out of this stock so fast you won't believe it. by midday, the volatility ought to hit near the low end. >> the decay over the weekend, right? >> right, right, right, right. >> that will get priced in by noon, though. >> i think the most impressive thing about this dell news is that we're not seeing what the low end netbooks cannibalize their higher end. it's very important for dell here. >> excellent. now it's time for "pops and drops." i like this segment. the diamonds and the dogs of the day. let's start with america express, popping 2%. >> if you want a credit card, i'd rather have the transaction than the lender. visa makes more sen

cyclical recovery. 9 cyclical strength that you're seeing in the emerging market economies and the brics. and being based up here in canada, 50% of our equity market is based on -- is comprised of resources, oil and gas and materials stock. they're sectors we're quite bullish on. we've had a real strong run here so, we may be due for a little bit of a breather and perhaps as the dollar has a best a bounce but longer term we quite like the story and with regard to technology you're seeing balance sheets in that group that are the strongest they've been in years. it's a very safe place to be. we're much less cautious when it comes to the u.s. consumer. we're not concerned about inflation. we think the u.s. consumer's in a period of retrenchment and increased savings rate for a long time to come and that employment will be very, very slow in recovering. so we're avoiding consumer discretionary stocks except torn on a very selective basis. >> kind of an opposite theory at the end. thanks, guys. we appreciate your help. here are some of the other stories we're following at the closing bell ti

and the crowded oil trade, which i think goes along with his crowded weak dollar trade and crowded bric trade. i can't believe that crowd developed this quick after as bad as it got crucified in the second half of last year. way too many people owning oil and materials, and et cetera. and then you've got a great move that's occurred in consumer stocks, like a nordstrom, for example. and we're due to get hit by profit-taking. and those two things are working together. but when people see the lower oil prices, we think it will actually invigorate the next leg of the bull market. >> bill smead, i want to come back and hear your prediction for the dow this year, and your very bullish prediction for dow next year. we're going to be rejoined by all of our team. everyone is coming back. so how to keep the summer sizzle in your portfolio. our bulls and bears are going to give us their hottest summer investment plays. >>> plus, obama care on life support. news that the hot-button public option may be dropped. it was good medicine for health insurance stocks. they soared today. robert reich says

and then lastly, number six in the six geese allaying,esh po ee to the brics.hey're talking up the relative strength of the emerging markets. bang. if you take a brick to the head and add leverage, these are four things that are -- pretty much not working really well today, but in the bigger picture here as we look at the second half of the year, those are the kind of stories that they're looking at. back to you. >> good stuff, matt. thank you. >>> now let's head over to the nasdaq market site. melissa lee is standing by with more on what's ahead on "fast money." >> we've got a big show at 5:00 tonight. we'll give you the setup ahead of the job reports tomorrow morning. 99 cent stores and imax, we'll talk to both ceos. and we'll have charley gas preeny, the man known to put ketchup on everything, he'll give us the lowdown. much more at 5:00. >> thank you. >>> a rival mobile carrier is turning up the heat in the telecom wars. details on that. announcer: some people buy a car based on the deal they get. - others buy the car of their dreams. - ( beeps ) during the

are you looking toward the bric countries as a potential positive here or no cigar there either?, china will be a positive. i think the most important thing is that they've shifted their focus on growth internally rather than relying on exports. probably a wise move. france and germany have begun to grow. and i think that primarily even though their banks are in rotten shape their consumers didn't go on the debt binge that ours did. so they're having a more normal recovery than we are. and then of course japan posted positive growth too, but that was all government. the thing is that that's not enough to carry the global economy, and it's certainly not enough to carry the u.s. economy. >> right. >> we need time. and given time, we can repair the problems that we face. but it's going to be touch and go, i think, for a year or so after the pump-priming second half growth this year. >> dan, we've seen extraordinary actions not only out of the federal reserve but also out of treasury and the government in general. what is your sense of the regulatory environment, how that may change,

. >> the bric nations make up 10% of hewlett-packard's revenue. 62% of hewlett-packard's revenue come from overseas. the bottom line here is hewlett-packard right now trades at $45. do you believe that the trade is that hewlett-packard can sustain above $45? if you believe so, then you stay with the longs or you get long here. that's the story. it's all about the trade in hewlett-packard. do you stay with it ahead of hewlett-packard? there's an analyst day on september 24th. that could be positive for the stock, but it's all about where it is right now and where you think it's going. >> it's also about the record services profits. we talked about the eds acquisition that was a huge acquisition, already starting to pay off, but the cash flow, $3.9 billion? i love that going to the bottom line as well. these numbers are incredible for hewlett-packard. you've got to love the numbers, but the run into this number was also incredible. the last quarter, they have out-stripped the xlk, the only stock that has actually kept up with them in the xlk has been apple. this has been a stock that's

>> bric respect to the buy american provisions, your prime minister raises this with me every time we see each other. that is important to know it. he is expressing his country's concerns. i think it is also important to keep it in perspective. in fact, we have not seen some sweeping steps toward protectionism. there was a very particular provision that was in our recovery package, our stimulus package, and did not extend beyond that. it was wto compliance. it was not something that i thought was necessary, but it was introduced at a time when we had a very severe economic situation and it was -- and it was important for us to act quickly and not get bogged down in debates around this particular provision. prime minister harbor and i have discussed this and there may be mechanisms whereby states and local jurisdictions can work with the provinces to allow for cross-border procurement practices that expand the trading relationship. but i did think it is important to keep this in perspective. this is no way has -- it has no way endangered the billions of dollars of trade between our two

at a think our major trading partners and bric countries would react? >> i will take a shot at it. i am skeptical of the secular approach. i am not sure that the problem is domestic problems, because you can pick your sectors. if we are setting the agenda, we picked a sector where you do not have those domestic political problems. the difficulty is finding a sector where you have lots of countries around the world to all see themselves as gaining from an agreement. in particular circumstances, information technology, although i have heard from some participants that they think that they were an error, that they should have been holding out concessions to get something unrelated. i completely agree with the premise. i think that deal is stouck and we need to think about different things. we often need that to try to find a balance deal where you have the right number of participants. that would bthe question i pose. i'm skeptical that you would find those types of alignments on the international scene. >> those are reasonable concerns. i would say that there has been no multilateral

at a think our major trading partners and bric countries would react? >> i will take a shot at it. i am skeptical of the secular approach. i am not sure that the problem is domestic problems, because you can pick your sectors. if we are setting the agenda, we picked a sector where you do not have those domestic political problems. the difficulty is finding a sector where you have lots of countries around the world to all see themselves as gaining from an agreement. in particular circumstances, information technology, although i have heard from some participants that they think that they were an error, that they should have been holding out concessions to get something unrelated. i completely agree with the premise. i think that deal is stouck and we need to think about different things. we often need that to try to find a balance deal where you have the right number of participants. that would be the question i pose. i'm skeptical that you would find those types of alignments on the international scene. >> those are reasonable concerns. i would say that there has been no multilater

at a think our major trading partners and bric countries would react? >> i will take a shot at it. i am skeptical of the secular approach. i am not sure that the problem is domestic problems, because you can pick your sectors. if we are setting the agenda, we picked a sector where you do not have those domestic political problems. the difficulty is finding a sector where you have lots of countries around the world to all see themselves as gaining from an agreement. in particular circumstances, information technology, although i have heard from some participants that they think that they were an error, that they should have been holding out concessions to get something unrelated. i completely agree with the premise. i think that deal is stouck and we need to think about different things. we often need that to try to find a balance deal where you have the right numr of participants. that would be the question i pose. i'm skeptical that you would find those types of alignments on the international scene. >> those are reasonable concerns. i would say that there has been no multilateral