so there is a possible outcome, which is not the zero option with no bsa, but a bsa concluded so late that the number of troops committed by the united states effectively dictates an alternative posture to the force. but that would raise some questions with some of the intending troop-contributing countries who are very focused on providing one of the spokes, germany and italy in particular. >> right. and in the whole question of future interventions, including nato -- >> you spoke of september being an end date. but president karzai now -- does he intend staying on if they handover takes place, possibly as late as november? that duality, if afghanistan,ning as adding to the difficulty of actually getting any agreement done? legality?s the >> i am not an expert on the afghan constitution, but i am not aware of a provision for any transitional handholding role for the ex-president. clearly, to answer your question self-evidently, if there were two people sleeping -- in seeking to exercise simultaneously, that would only public ap situation, but i am not aware of any provision that woul

he led the afghan people in negotiating the bsa.ions were very collegial and very professional and they resulted what i think and i believe everyone is looking to agreement including the afghan representatives of the loya jirga. i think it's an agreement that was posed in the best interest of the afghan people and government of the united states. thank you ambassador hakimi. please give ambassador hakimi a round of applause. [applause] i will also mention jim warlick ambassador who did a great job. we have great agreement in place. what is the future with that agreement? it's going to be difficult. afghanistan faces challenges and all of us are aware of those challenges but i think the odds are very much in favor of success with the bsa in place. will it be in place? the afghan people have spoken and the afghan presidential candidates and number who i spoke with in kabul when i was there aren't favor of signing the bsa so i think it's a virtual certainty that the bsa will be signed. the issue whether president karzai signs it or not

the importance of the relationship beyond the bsa. we are fortunate to have a very distinguished panel of experts with us today. we deliberately decided to choose prominent american and international officials and experts working on afghanistan to talk about the importance, again, the challenges but also the opportunities and the importance of a longer-term engagement and afghanistan. with the hopes that some of this will be transmitted, with lots of me here today. i know voice of america is also planning to use some of the coverage from today to also be broadcast back into afghanistan so the afghans to hear that there are prominent voices speaking on behalf of the importance of a more enduring partnership and engagement in afghanistan. so with that let me quickly introduce our panelists it i think there more detailed bio divvy out sizable go into detail, but we will start off with a fortune having ambassador marc grossman who is going to the vice-chairman of the cohen group. ambassador grossman had a very distinguished 20 year career

no bsa, no troops? >> as correct. >> if we do have the bsa not one troupe will be left behind. we will not put our men and women in that situation but most afghans want us to stay? >> direct. >> maybe when you were telling us that we could construct a the scenario the afghans will help to defend america? >> if you look back at the nation's we helped in the 1990's many are on the ground with us in afghanistan today georgia is one of the examples. >> what is in it for us to be exploring is afghanistan willing to fight the terrorist to help defend our nation and? >> i do agree a partnership. >> if you want to help women in america make sure al qaeda cannot kill us at the homeland is not afghan women it is american men and women so we have a historic opportunity to turn a country that is isolated into an allied to be a front-line defense. do you agree? >> i agree. >> the goal is to keep the enemy away from the homeland to win still up partnership is and that the general goal? >> it is. >> you agree it is essential upon because this is where it started? >> i do and south asia. >> if

no bsa, no troops? >> correct. >> >> to the afghan people, if we don't have a bilateral security agreement, not one trip -- troop will be left behind. we are not going to put our young men and women in that situation. the good news is most afghans want us to stay. >> correct, sir. >> maybe what you are telling us come if we are smart and and this well we can construct a scenario where afghans will help. >> if you look back at the nations we helped in the 1990's many of them were on the ground with us. >> what is in it for us is a fair proposition for us to be exploring. what's in it for us would be an afghanistan willing to fight the terrorists and defending our nation from an attack. >> i agree. the fight against terrorism is absolutely what we are trying to -- >> you want to help women in america make sure al qaeda can't kill a bunch of us here -- >> correct. >> this isn't about afghan women, this is about american women, about american men. it can be a frontline defense against al qaeda, do you agree

>> ess -- bsa? >> it will come under bilateral security agreement. and the status of forces too actually. >> will it come under both of those things and we are still on the elections and i wonder what other prospects in your mind of the elections being free and fair and are they or will they be properly observed by independent observers? >> the afghan electoral commission will certainly be overseeing them. members of the committee will have a few on independent afghan commissions. free and fair, these are relative terms i'm afraid in elections. i think our perception is that each round of elections in afghanistan is probably better than the previous one. we would hope that the elections this year will be an advance on the previous presidential elections so i think it's heading in the right direction. >> yes, the bilateral security agreement is clearly very important that you don't make any comment on any particular candidate and it would be wholly inappropriate to do so but recently we are watching. has this become a hotly contested issue among candi

into overdrive to push back as far as possible the point at which we have to assume there won't via bsa. if you don't mind chairman i think i would want to not need precise but we are definitely beyond the summit to the point where we think it's the latest realistic time, the worst realistic case for a fixture emerging from the two stage presidential electoral process which is probably sometime in september. >> so we have a bilateral security agreement. let's assume that happens. how soon after that would a status of forces agreement between the afghan government and the remainder of isaf happen? >> i think something between one minute and one week we would expect it to be effectively pretty much simultaneous. >> is the wording of that already agreed between the government of afghanistan and isaf or sis? >> there are drafts of people have accepted both on the bsa and the sofa. >> would it be right to think if there were any disparities to the bilateral agreement and the status of forces agreement that would be a game-changer? >> no, i think the bilateral security agreement covers territ

the bsa has negotiated. he's not trying tow change a word in it. he's simply refusing to sign it unless x, y, z is happening. the things he's chose zwroen happen are not going to happen easily if at all. they're out of our control. so each of the candidates running for president have said they support the bsa, they will sign it and i expect it will be signed at some point in timing, if not by karzai, by one of them. egypt is very, very challenging right now. it is vital that the interim government take measures in order to permit young people to be able to demonstrate people to be able to take part in the political system. we cannot be arresting activists. we cannot see journalists arrested, those things need to change. i hope they will. we would like to see them be successful. it is vital to all of us that egypt be successful, and we need 1/4 of the arab world to find its footing now and get a government in place, move to the democratic process, stabilize, hopefully, and begin to develop, but there are very troubling issues that need to be resolve

the bsa lifted a ban on gay youth but its ban on gay adult leaders is still in place. >>> four minuteshour. a teenager is hate and killed by a freight train in the east bay. coming up, why investigators say she may have stepped on to the tracks. >> and if you're flying out of sfo this morning, you may be off to a rough start. the latest round of winter storms is causing several setbacks for travelers. we'll have the details after the break. ,,,,,,,, >> i guess apparently she reached back for her cell phone getting away from the train. it's really, really sad. >> tragedy on the tracks. a bay area teen is dead after being hit by a train in martinez. >> i'm not looking forward to the snowstorm coming up. >> another major winter storm is creating problems across the country. the national weather service issued warnings, watches, and advisories for as many as 106 million people. cleaning up in southern california, many evacuated due to mud slides are being allowed to return. >> pummeled like kobe beef and it's getting better and better. >> the glitter and glamour of hollywood was on fu disp

last year the bsa lifted the ban on gay youth but the ban on gay adult leaders is still in place. >>> the white house says russian forces now have complete operational control at the peninsula in ukraine. the u.s. estimates 6,000 russian ground troops around the region and they arees co lating by the minute. armed conflict could break out at any minute. we have the latest on the military maneuvering. >> reporter: troops with no marking on their uniform surround the area. soldiers, spoke russian and drove russian tanks. no shots fired. they are mobilizing the troops, bracing for war and asking for help. >> this is not a threat. this is a declaration to my country. >> we are on the brink of a disaster. >> reporter: russian forces are already in control but here, thousands of people filled the streets. one sign read puttin hands off of ukraine. >> they are demanding that moscow pull back from the army or pull back the sanctions. john kerry will travel there on tuesday and says the u.s. and the allies are putting russia on notice. >> all of them. every single one of them are prepared to g

the odds are very much in favor of success with the bsa in place. will it be in place echo the afghan presidential candidates, a number of them i spoke to in kabul are in favor of starting ae bsa. i think it is certainty that it will be signed. whether or not karzai signs it is irrelevant. we need to make sure we plan effectively for him not signing it and moving forward. i truly hope that any of the ambassador dobbins mentioned that might occur if there is delay are mitigated effectively by the great planning capacity that our military and state department have. i don't believe there's is any need for any particular cost as long as we keep our eye on the , as is the topic of this panel. in turning to this cop -- to , is topic of afghan security have visited afghanistan 20 or 30 times and lived there for a couple of years. when andrew, alex and i were working on afghanistan in the earlier decade, the afghan did a tremendous job. we turned over lead security responsibility to the afghan security forces. many people outside of predicted that would not

if there is going to be no bsa? from a military perspective, whether there would be a withdrawal at the end of 2014 or whether we would maintain a , i would not do anything different between now and july. we have stabilize the force to support the elections in april and we have plenty of flexibility to adjust to either eventuality in july. beginning in july, i think we have manageable risks during the month of july and august and i would assess the risk of an orderly withdrawal that begins to be high in september and that is a function of the tasks that have to be accomplished and how many days. i would quickly add that what concerns me most about the delay b in thes is not the physics of the retrogradea or the redeployment of forces. it's the uncertainty that exists inside of afghanistan with the afghan people, the uncertainty with the afghan forces, the hedging behavior we see in the region and as importantly, the coalition cohesion in assuring that at the end of the several months of uncertainty, we still have a

in regards to the bsa in afghanistan. becomes a time when it unworkable to do it, is there in like july, date august were you look up and we still have nothing and you say we are -- the sand is out of the hourglass? the president has options, ranges of options, the scope of options which we have provided. you know what the range of those options are. the chairman noted earlier. a were required to do counterterrorism mission. day, what is the cutoff date? general dunford and his leaders have framed the general time frame on this. had to look at that general time frame for the reasons you mentioned. if we do not have a bsa which the president made clear, we have -- outhat i am trying to find and i am kind of familiar about the timeframe. when you are looking up september 15, do you have time to get this done? >> we are in a condition of low risk right now. our retrograde is going on pace. the risk you have of having retrograde be affected is low. by the minute -- the middle of summary goes to low and then high. nowhat is yo

last year, the bsa lifted a ban on gay youth by the ban on gay adult leaders is in place.ew trading week in 45 minutes. >> it will start slowly. joe wagner of cbs money watch joins us now. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, brian and michelle. on wall street, investors keep an eye on new jobs numbers this morning and the crisis in ukraine. tensions there already sent asian stocks lower this morning and it's expected that wall street will follow suit. now the price for oil is up. wheat prices are also up. ukraine is a huge wheat exporter, often called the bread basket of europe. so the concern is that this crisis will disrupt those exports. the markets finished mixed on friday dow up 45 pointes and nasdaq fell nearly 11. forget the academy awards. remember the brown fedora pharrell wore and now arby's bought it for $44,000. why? it looks a lot like the fast food chain's logo. that money goes to his charity from one hand to another and wore a similar hat at the academy awards last night. >> he did and ellen degeneres used it for the pieces she collected during the cere

armedis a bsa, naval, forces, to remove individuals that are dangerous from that awful. it is troubling that they have released those people. it is something we should be worried about. i want you to tell me that you're comfortable that if you catch people that are trying to kill our men and women in battle that we can keep them captured and that the afghan government does not have the ability to let them go. >> i share your concern with that, and clearly protecting the force is my responsibility, and i take that very seriously. i was greatly concerned with the release of those 65 individuals. i would say the viability of our presence post-2014 is going to be determined by a number of factors, one of which will be an effective regime to address detainees, not only to ensure that those individuals that are threatening the forces are kept off the battle. but that we have access to intelligence and conduct effective counterterrorism operations. with the new administration, that is something that has to be arranged and be part of the bilateral security agreement, and the oth

last year, the bsa lifted a ban on gay youth but ban on gay adult leaders is still in place. >>> facebookrk. he or she would work on safety and truancy prevention at schools. facebook offered to pay for this up to five years including the officer's salary and benefits plus rent and renovations at the substation. >>> the uncertainty in ukraine is playing out in global markets today. >> here's financial reporter jason brooks. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. a lot of jitters when it comes to the ukraine as tensions escalate between russia. sanctions could impact oil prices and oil prices down the road intel. a five-month high now and gold up as well. big selloff in europe and germany stock market down 3% and stocks on the worries over the ukraine. also economic reporter this morning to consider consumer spending in january according to the ecommerce department. railroads by four 0.4% and income on the rise in january up by 0.3%. and stocks sell primarily on ukraine. let's see how we're doing. dow dropping 122 points. nasdaq lower by 31 points and s&p is down by 10 points. miche you.

if there is going to be no bsa?> from a military perspective, whether there would be a withdrawal at the end of 2014 or whether we would maintain a mission, i would not do anything different between now and july. we have stabilize the force to support the elections in april and we have plenty of flexibility to adjust to either eventuality in july. beginning in july, i think we have manageable risks during the month of july and august and i would assess the risk of an orderly withdrawal that begins to be high in september and that is a function of the tasks that have to be accomplished and how many days. i would quickly add that what concerns me most about the delay b ins thea is not the physics of the retrograde or the redeployment of forces. it's the uncertainty that exists inside of afghanistan with the afghan people, the uncertainty with the afghan forces, the hedging behavior we see in the it is part of a coalition to train and advise and assist the afghans. can you tell us what range of u.s. troops that you wou

is notnk if the bsa signed, we will see as much coverage in this country about afghanistan as we seetoday about tajikistan. that is just a fact. americans, we love to forget. the coverage of iraq more or less disappeared. it has come back because the situation is so bad. there will not be a great deal of attention if there are not american soldiers in some long-term. and by the way, why should there be? if the afghans don't want us there and we don't have people there, even though we all agree that it is desirable that we stay in some shape or form, why would the american public continue to care? that is just a simple formula to. >> rifles that we have come to the end of our time and we -- right. we have come to the end of our time. we need to come to the next item, which is me talking. briefly, briefly. the last -- any last points you want to make? and bbcnk boa organizations are going to increasingly have important roles to play in terms of providing the external and independent coverage as well, and i think they also provide a bit of cover for the continuation of investigative jou

signs the bsa, that would be a blow to the taliban. that president is intent on maintaining the relationship necessary not just for the ansf but to create a stable platform for the long term that is necessary. it is important that that candidate right now be thinking about the first actions they will take to repair the damage that has been done with the rhetoric from the palace over the last several months. important things that could happen would be to sign the security agreement. that would be reciprocated by the unambiguous declaration of support by the west for that president and that government and afghanistan over the long term. doubled with the taliban narrative in trouble. we will see where that goes. agree with what the ambassador has said. i want to keep it simple. government after will weaken the position of the taliban. it will damage their entire existence. it will prove that people want this system and want to vote their own leaders into office. create a huge trouble for the taliban. that, as long as the alabama remains h

>> well, i think if the bsa is not signed, we'll see as much coverage about, in this country about afghanistan as we see today about that individual stand. i mean, i think that's just a fact. you know, americans, we love to forget. the coverage of iraq more or less disappeared. it's come back because the situation so bad. but, you know, there will not be a great deal of anticipation -- attention if there aren't american soldiers in some long term. and by the way, why should there be? if the after begans don't want us there and we don't -- afghans don't want us there and we don't have people there, why would the american public really continue to care? i mean, i think that's a simple formulation. >> right. we've come to the end of our time, and we need to go to the next item which happens to be me talking. but briefly. briefly, i promise you. last thoughts from anyone, any sort of summing up you want to make very pithily? >> first of all, i think voa and bbc, organization are going to have an increasingly important role to play in terms of of providing also the external independent coverage as

bsa is not signed, what do you see in terms of the u.s.-afghan engagement beyond 2014? done fors to be support of the afghan women and make sure that some of these names solidify -- these gains solidify? >> obviously, i >> in terms of the security dimension, that will largely depend upon the level of training and results achieved so far. a set ofstill questions folks might have about the quality and readiness of the security forces. at last count, we had on the trained 150,000 police and 180,000 army. they have achieved those numbers. those are close to the goals, not far off the goals. but the quality of the training and quality of the officer corps and folks trained to be soldiers and police officers will be the test. there are limits to what we can do. we have invested a lot of time and effort in training. going forward, a lot will have to be afghan led, not just in the sense of leading on the battlefield, but let in terms of further training and strengthening of security forces. more broadly i would say on the other aspects of the policy, we have to keep making the

now our question is that how we keep that, how we running back, how, you know, and i hope if the bsa we have a good election, if we pass this bridge i think our future will be very good and i think will have a good success in our country. >> najib, same question. how strong is the afghan media, how important is it to the country and how worried are you about its future? >> well, it's very strong if we look at the fact that today's afghan me is one of the products of the last 10 years. before that we didn't literally have media in that country. as a nation rightly outlined. -- as danish writer ellen goodwin had one radio during the taliban and two papers which were slowly being used for the propaganda purposes of the government. in terms of highlighting priorities for the central government, in terms of promoting human rights, promoting women's rights, in terms of holding politicians accountable, it's very strong. again, we have to look at the afghan media in the backdrop of what we had before that, 2001. its extremist important for afghanistan because afghanistan has recently started