bullard will be a voter in the january meeting. he is one who has called for consistently a lower rate. i don't know if others supporting the market certainly felt as if today's jobs number was strong enough to keep the federal reserve going, and then we have rick coming up to talk more about this. take a look at the two-year note, which has declined a bit it's gone down consistently right now we're at that low level of 14 basis points on the 210 spread, and tyler, another quarter-point hike could possibly invert it there. >> let me ask you something, steve. is there a point at which the sort of softening rhetoric that is coming out from a variety of fed governors and members of the fomc board there, is there a point at which that softening rhetoric becomes alarming? >> that's a good question, tyler. i think that the fed in this new age of transparency doesn't know a lot more than what's known on the street i think it sees the same things we are seeing. the question is not what the fed knows. the it was a little late reacting, and

louis federal reserve president james bullard said the fed should consider delaying a december rate hike because of the narrowing yield curve, adding it's a signal from the markets that the fed has gone too far. wow. that's an important headline, not affecting the markets that are down right now. the downdraft intensifying in the final hour as the chief financial officer of china's huawei just appeared before a judge in a canadian court. oh, my goodness. she's going to face multiple decades in prison, accused of fraud and conspiracy charges to do business with the iranians. the markets also fearing the trump trade truce with china may come undone. former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez is here to tell us whether he believes that's the case and whether the 90-day truce which is now more like 84 days is a realistic time frame to solve america's trade issues with china. >>> the market selloff widening in the final two hours of trade but right now, we've got 59 minutes to go. the week's major averages dropping more than 4%. you can see down about 4% for the week. we have that on the dow.

all of sudden james bullard said, wait a second, we maybe have to pause. that was a warning sign, maybe demand won't be as good as we thought and we started to sell off pretty hard. interestingly enough, gold on the other hand it rallied big on that because if the fed is going to pause, that means more weakness in the dollar and really came up. shows you how these markets especially with the stock market una lot of pressure is really sensitive to these headlines. but in the big picture, when we talk about that cut, connell, it is significant. because right now we're going into the high demand period of the year. opec's going to do along with russia 1.2 million barrels. don't forget about canada. they have cut back 300,000. so that is 1.5. connell: interesting stuff to your first point especially about growth. we're all trying to figure it out, phil, for next year. phil flynn. >> thank you. melissa: president trump announcing new leadership roles today. we'll tell you picks for attorney general and ambassador to the united nations. we are live from the whit

interest rate futures market put an 80% chan on the december hike but came off the odds a bit and bullard's comments. his remarks followed those from lyle brainard w suggested they should hike near term but adopt a less certain view next year depending more on the kpk data. >> the most likely path for the economy is positive, although some tailwin that have provided a boost are fading. and we maye face s cross currents. the global growth p thatvided a strong tailwind going into this year has modered. here at home, the impetus to growth from fiscal policy is likely to fade going into 2020. and after being exceptionally accommodative financiav conditions tightened in recent months. >> over the past several weeks the fed went from being relatively confident in hiking several times next yr to mehow nuging the future hikes depend on the data and outlook. >> there is a good chance that there will be a -- a pause at some poi in 2019. and we have -- we haven't had a pause. but i think that, you know, markets, of course pricing in a lot lessht ting for next year, basically one hike price relative to

because it will create a vacuum that will allow vladimir putin, as bullard, it rhyme and the syrian dictatedsickly means that the us government has subcontracted its policy to the president of turkey who has not been a stabilising force in the region. he is moving into north—eastern syria to conduct a massacre against kurdish fighters who have been the most courageous and disciplined fighters in stopping the islamic state. so from any perspective, donald trump osmond new policy to withdraw troops will create more volatility in the middle east region. you expect this to be an announcement that is carried through? in the past, the president has already lost two senior advisers over the decision and in the past he has declared some things that the military has quietly not carried out. he has been feverishly tweeting that american troops will be withdrawn and this was a troops will be withdrawn and this wasa campaign troops will be withdrawn and this was a campaign promise. i thought that general mattis, who resigned, i thought he would be up to sway him and appeared to do so for a while but now

it had been on bullard's commentsnow.ited many including trade uncertainty. >> some tail winds that have provided a boost are fading and we may face some cross currents. the global growth that provided a strong tail wind going into this year has moderated. here at home the growth from fiscal policy is likely to fade going into 2020 and after being exceptionally accommodative financial conditions tighten in recent months. >> being confident and suggesting that future hikes depend on the data and outlook it was kind ovf interesting. the fed futures markets did. >> yeah. what are the latest expectations it is down to 73% earlier today. >> yeah. we are >> it is so interesting because what happened next year, look, it gets confusing and less certain as you look further out. there you go it is earlier today. look, we were at a 60% chance of the first hike for 2019 coming in march we are now down below 40% for june we pushed it back considerably and we can't really even get 50% by september a lot is up in the air right now. i th

bullard is saying that in public? it is kind of dramatic. ? know got an opinion, very he presidents folks in fomc have view not monolithic it is healthy they should have a debate no one really knows how this is going to play out you know i think it is fair. >> all right i'm very happy to hear about your optimism about a trade deal i hope it comes to pass sooner rather than later great to see you. thank you very much for being here. >> thank you. >> dow is down over 3% for the week, finalizes continuing to tumble and now there is only one stock among the dow 30 that is positive, that is chevron. . edward jones came to manage a trillion dollars in assets under care by focusing our mind on whatever's on yours. ♪ there's no place likargh!e ♪ i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪ so lionel, what does 24/5 mean to you?rade well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... fr

jim bullard of st. louis said there is no purpose in bringing the yield curve. the fed is getting hawkish. there is a chance it could delay. he also said a flat curve veterans to an inverted curve is a big red flag for the federal reserve. haidi: indeed. next oil rising as opec agrees to curb production but saudi arabia admits the cartel and its allies could be reacting to late. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: japan investment corporation ceo and the president, public-private innovations on japan in horse -- investment and eight other executives have decided to resign according to the nikkei news, learning of that report on sunday. tanaka will hold a press conference to announce a decision. this comes after a time of overhaul and rejuvenation for the public and private innovation fund. it had been prior known as incj, focused on bailing out corporate zombies and restructuring that had shifted focus to returning to investing in innovation, medical projects as well and looking at technology. it is said this came after a disagreement with the government, the minister

the 15th massachusetts, frank bullard. i guess the bullets flew for 18 to 20 minutes fast as we could get them in and out of our guns. i heard a voice from the rear crying fall that. i turned around and said what does that mean. again, the cry, fall back. someone yelled the rebels are on our reader. all was confusion. we ran like a flock of sheep. the rebs load us down. cedric division flanked on three sides. they will lose half the command in 20 minutes. edwin sumner rides into the group. you are in a bad fix. 20 massachusetts, and less time than it takes to tell it the ground was shrewd with the bodies of the dead and wounded. ,ump the stone of the 15th mass you asked me about the battle of antietam. the 17th of september. put down in history as the most desperate battle the war. thousands yielded their lives that this government must and shall live. how i escaped so many bullets, god only knows. whizzing by my face cutting down poor fellows around me. you cannot realize the horrors of the battlefield to see the dead and

bullard over at the fed want about cracks appearing.ew york fed survey on inflation outlook and arsenal wages, it does not bolster. how worried are you about it week in a growth in the u.s. -- a peak in growth in the u.s.? jack: we are in the 10th year of recoveryp. i am glad to have been in office for seven out of those years, we left a strong economy behind. periods of growth don't just timeout, but they also don't go forever. and we are seeing policies that actually make it difficult for growth to continue. whether it is deficit policies in the unit is dates at a time of economic growth, or trade war's that are man-made problems. i think you're seeing a lot of uncertainty and disruption put in an economy that is already late in the cycle. blowinghat deficit is out, $1 trillion is what the cbo did did a year earlier. when does the debt pile really begin to matter? jack: i think if you look at the debt, both the deficit and the accumulated debt, we made a lot of progress in the time i was in things.in stabilizing we went from the defic

i have to say jim bullard is not a voter, he is the president of st.ng about the fate -- he said the fed is getting hawkish and there is no reason to risk inverting to preempt inflation. it is a signal they have been aggressive, but he says they are getting hawkish. it looks like one more in december, then we will see what they signal at the december 19 meeting about next year. so much uncertainty about 2019. let's look at the oil patch, crude is trading lower. we had seen a spike in oil prices friday after opec and its allies delivered a bigger than expected production cut. the russian oil minister told bloomberg moscow would need a few months to reach the full level of cuts. >> we will be reaching our goals over a number of months, not immediately. this is connected to the fact we have some difficulties and challenges which we have to navigate the group, unlike our partners in the southern countries. we will of course try to reach our goals as fast as possible. i will not give you the exact case right now because we need to finalize calculations with

not up like bullard.'m being cynical because this was the kind of thing that i was embarrassed that they felt they did not see and do the homework to know this was occurring. they're not talking to the right people they're talking to the 27-year-olds who work at their companies. it's a company, and it's not a company performing well. so you're taking a discount to dimon, muilenburg, mcmillon. >> do bankers ever say there's a do downshift? >> ceos are not paid to be negative >> i was with a ceo last night at a restaurant. he asked are you going to do another restaurant i said my credit line has doubled. why would i do that? it costs me twice what i did for my first restaurant. you think i'm alone? >> i don't >> the business roundtable is releasing the results of its ceo economic outlook survey. dominic chu has that >> the business roundtable says ceo confidence fell in this past quarter to 104.4 from a prior reading of 109.3 this is the third straight quarter that ceo confidence declined to add balance to

bullard, george, rosengren and evans.which may not be what the market wants to see. >> not anymore >> they've all shown they can flip-flop because they've been there for a while. maybe that's a good sign that if they see changes or deterioration, switch their hawkish views! by the way, we're watching 2400 here on the s&p. watch for presidential tweets today because if he were to come out and say something about powell, it could move the market he did just tweet about two minutes ago. virtually every democrat we're dealing with strongly supported a border wall or fence it was only when i made it an important part of my campaign because people and drugs with were pouring into the country unchecked they turned against it that's from the president. again, focusing on the focus of the shutdown obviously >> and mulvaney signalling, he did interviews this weekend that this could go for a long time. and i just wonder if the publicity around this, 420,000 federal employees will work without pay. 380,000 federal workers will be put

with all of the equity market swings we have seen, and of course we have headlines out earlier fed's bullarde flatness of the yield curve. take a look at what he had to say. you mentioned a steepening, but he is thinking that the yield has been flat and has been flattening since 2014. a flattening yield curve is a signal that the fed is being too aggressive and maybe more aggressive than is necessary. he also came out with a bit of a surprise and said they could delay the fed rate hike in december to january because every meeting, technically, is live. he does not think they will do that. the fed being more hawkish in his view, as he is the classic dub. -- classic dove. romaine: biotech company sold publicmadonna shares last night, raising about $604 million. it is trading today on the secondary market. the appetite might not be right there for the secondary investors, down about 12%. at 22, so 23, opened it opened below the ipo price and is now trading down, about $20 per share. but we have seen a big surge in ipos for biotech companies, about 77 worldwide. one of the best-performing ipos a

there are some people on the fed kashkari and bullard, others that i'm sure were arguing with jay powelly the action a couple of days ago, but sort of the commentary that came out. did he make -- was that a mistake or is he on the right track in your view >> i think the actions weren't the problem. i think it was the communication of the actions that were a problem. and part of that is because you don't have people on the fed like you did in the past kevin walsh, or like you did with dudley who have lived through markets. >> wait. i thought jay powell was the one who had sensitivity to -- he's the guy who is the markets expert >> he's a private equity guy i have huge respect for him. but he didn't live on the trade floor. he hasn't seen how technicals can dominate markets and completely ignore fundamentals so they said three things that made total sense economically but the market didn't want to hear >> but maybe that was intentional. maybe they're trying to break the temper tantrum >> they're trying to break the codependence and the fact the markets have held -- >> it's not going to go

would either panic more members of the fed or give credence to what the members of the fed like a bullardsaying the inverted yield curve could be a big deal. how much more do people listen to them in the room this time? >> i think it's funny, mike. you've got the fed that has tried to sort of step away from a yield curve inversion as an important thing for a very long time and they tried to walk back. maybe it's not all that important. maybe when twos to tens are at 70 basis points early in the year the reason i felt like i would invert is the rest of the world is slowing when you look at european pmis this morning, for example, and you think about what the ecb is going to do on the 13th, low global yields have helped. >> the 10-year bund this morning is at 0.242% >> and that tells you a lot about what potentially the ecb is going to do or not do on the 13th they extended once hey, september the ecb is going to end it. they extended it through december will they extend it more i think they probably will end it but probably dovishly >> powell himself has said when they asked him about sign