bullard spoke to kathleen hays about how he sees the u.s.conomic recovery unfolding. >> i think that will be more inflation in 2021 than we have seen in recent years. i would like some of that to flow through to inflation expectations so that inflation expectations become better centered at 2%. we missed the inflation target to the low side really most of the time since 2012. so we want to read and center -- re-center and placed expectations at 2%. manus: we also heard from the former new york fed president phil dudley for his take on the potential impact of the fed policy in the coming months. >> we're running an experiment, basically. >> well said. >> we will see how it goes. this experience has more uncertainty than usual because it's never had a recovery from a pandemic like this, going back more than 100 years. anyone that tells you they will know how the economy will perform is not being truly honest with you. annmarie: william dudley there. let's take a look at where we trade this morning. we are flat on the futures. s&p 500 hovering

hayes -- i want to welcome jim bullard, president of the federal reserve bank of st.cial guest for the hour starting on bloomberg television and radio. it is great to see you again. usually i'm out of st. louis for the usual harmer jones memorial lecture. this year it is virtual so that is how we are joining you. we will have a nice long conversation. i would like to start with jay powell's remarks last night. he was very clear, he said the economy and jobs are set to come back very quickly. those were his words. the outlook has brightened substantially due to

that's interesting news out of bullard today. >> it is dan, by the way, you got some picks.66, lincoln national. thank you for those. i want to keep going on this we have a fed official, yes, we're all amateur epidemiologists now. every single night i post the vaccination numbers to my social we all know that i've been more optimistic than most he's telling you -- if you look at the math. okay you can kind of guess when we might hit that based on this 75% vaccination number coming out of bullard. dr. fauci said we only need 50% vaccination rates. so he's a little more hawkish on vaccines too >> kpclearly we're going to ope. we're seeing the trade everything is improving. the reality is that the fed is not going to act based upon what's coming out in a vaccination report the fed is going to act based upon what we have in real numbers. as the economy begins to grow. if we have sustainable growth in employment and we look at the inflation numbers. we're going to have a strong gdp. we're likely to have a run rate of 6% as we get to the end of the year that's going be far more im

shery: james bullard.t miss an exclusive interview with the brazilian central bank president as well. roberto will join us to discuss how the pandemic is affecting the economy and the interest rates. brazil was the first major economy to hike rates since the onset of the pandemic, tuesday evening in new york, six: 30 a.m. on wednesday in hong kong. staying in south america, we are getting the latest lines from ecuador's president-elect, seeking national unity when it comes to forming its next government. ecuadorian bonds, you can see that rallied after he won the presidential election with a late surge in support. it was a massive really for bondholders. they bid up ecuador's benchmark notes. they restructured eight months ago, now saying they will not raise taxes to meet imf targets, reiterating a campaign pledge, aiming for new oil contracts to double oil output as well. haidi. haidi: we do have some more lines coming out from the fed. this time coming from boston fans -- saying they are taking the risk

mark: it is interesting has come from james bullard. our colleague shows the projections.owell will be likely to break the news, which means it is lined up for a potential of at least considering a taper discussion by august, which i think is interesting given he is a complete dove. a little bit of a scare for equity markets that should be very forward-looking. anna: something to pencil in with jackson hole. when we start, i suppose that is what we talk about. what are we going to start talking about tapering? the guidance from james bullard, someone that links the start of that conversation with the percentage of the population that is vaccinated. is that something you are watching? >> they are truly engaging in a shift in approach. central bankers will be in charge and in control of the markets over the last 10 years. the markets always anxiously awaiting action or hints of action. the fed is very outspoken about the fact they want to see the data points. i can understand that. situations and the economy is so uncertain. that forces market assistance to take a more proac

so maybe powell and bullard are saying the same thing. to what powell said on 60 minutes, right now the economy is firing on all cylinders. we'll see retail sales. it would be a blow-out number. inflation increase. the headlines will be everywhere about an economy that is at risk of overheating. but jay powell, again, he's in control. he's already told you, i am prepared to look through this and i'm prepared to look through any signs of overheating for a long time. >> charles: so it starts tomorrow morning the cpi report. the ppi was through the roof. one of biggest we've seen in years. everyone is breaking for a shocking number. they have to convince the american public and wall street that it's temporary. how do they do that? how do they say it's amazing but only going to last for a few months? >> so right now we have mathematically what is called basic x. what that means, charles is that because of month over month inflation in march of 2020 crashed by 0.7%. that means that even if we have an unchanged reading, tomorrow morning at 8:30

more clarity into that timeline we've been discussing because we heard earlier this week from james bullard talking about that 75% vaccination, signaling maybe that's a time to start talking about tapering. clearly next year into next year is when we will see the fed pull back on that. manus: he did go on to say that the preconditions were unlikely to be met before 2022, let alone this year. so he's really trying to re-craft the narrative that we have a super easy fed. this tweet brought it to me, real rates and term premium, suggesting that taper is already in the price. we can debate that. annmarie: let's hear what he had to say exactly yesterday, jay powell talking to david rubenstein about the fact that the fed will scale back before raising interest rates. >> we're going into a period of faster growth and job creation. the main risk is we will have another spike in cases perhaps in one of the virus strains over time and in the longer run. the u.s. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. it's a different thing to

we heard from bullard saying it takes a certain rate of vaccination for them to start the debate on whether to taper are not. and by all calculations that will be in the fourth quarter. what is your take on that? >> an interesting headline this morning to see them specifically refer to the right. we would think about it landing around september or the fourth quarter, maybe with a like. -- lag. that is earlier than our tapering expectation here jp morgan. we have been thinking something around q1 of next year. the market, as we know, has been moving forward with rate high expectations our tapering expectations, everything from the fed. with that backdrop in mind, and where the markets have traded too, i would say september for a number of investors, is where it would have begun, and then to the end of the year. that probably lines up with the 75% rate, i would not said huge market mover but interesting to see that from the fed. also interesting to see the comments this morning in asia time around inflation. and the comfort i am sensing from fed members that inflation would not get out of han

pace, we might able to get to that point by mid-to-late summer it is possible, at least based on bullard'sed is talking about raising rates later this year. interesting comments and did not get a lot of attention, but maybe should have. >>> to the other top tuesday stories. credit suisse has cut bonuses for the staff by hundreds of millions of dollars all in the wake of the archegos scandal and its related $5 billion loss. no comments from credit suisse as of yet. the magnitude of the cuts will be revealed next week with quarterly results. >>> janet yellen will reportedly decline to name china a currency manipulator in her report due out on thursday. the move would allow the u.s. to side-step a flash point with beijing. this is a reverse from the previous stance of steve mnuchin. >>> more economic fallout for georgia. that following the passage of the controversial voting law will smith is pulling the film production of "emancipation" out of the state and moving it instead to louisiana a slavery-era drama produced and financed by apple studios is the first major production to cite the law

louis, james bullard of the st. louis fed. stay with us on radio, on television on this monday.loomberg. ♪ ids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. ♪ jonathan: a huge week ahead. from york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. equity futures -.1%. we begin with the big issue. can the data meet high expectations? >> very lofty expectations. >> the second quarter is a turning point. >> the key is not just the earnings season. >> does the data continue to exceed expectations? >> everyone is freaked out about short-term data. >> the risk is higher inflation. >> the prospect of sustainably

james bullard, the federal reserve bank of st. louis president speaking to bloomberg. good morning.ngside lisa abramowicz and john -- tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. equity market, unchanged. futures, 41.2 two. into the bond market, yields into this inflation print higher, by two basis points, 1.68. crude oil up i a little. let's turn back to the president briefly who alluded to the idea that once we got to 75% vaccinations in this country, maybe we could discuss tapering bond purchases. i find that interesting, because given the current rate in the united states of america according to our bloomberg tracker, 3.2 million per day, little more than that, the average over the last seven days. three mom months -- more months and we beat it. that could be interesting later this summer. tom: i was taken by that's desisted. jon: no idea where it came from either -- by that statistic. jon: no idea where it came from. the market had a little bit of reaction to say the least. tom: i know the cardinals last last night -- lost last night. jon: i'm here for the valuations, time. keep going. [lau

you remember yesterday when james bullard from the st.ouis fed the tapering will begin once we had 75% of americans had the jab. it was already going to be to be a challeng put the fed keeping accommodation, keeping the punch bowl out there. >> i would be very surprised if the fed tapers or raises rates this year. it is not happening at 75% vaccination rate. that is arbitrary. doesn't fit the dual mandate. without a doubt rates will have to go up in the future but right now, charles, there are too many unknowns to allow for what could potentially be a pretty significant policy error. you're having issues with vaccines. multiple variants of covid-19. some have pretty substantial mutations. you have the reopening quite possibly could be lumpy. with all these unknowns. i don't see the fed changing course. at least for the rest of this year. charles: david, yeah, i don't think this year, but they're talking about 2024. i think, if you listen to powell he makes up a different metric every other day for not hiking rates so again i don't disagre

this notion of when do you really know the pandemic is not going to come back to bite you again, bullardhe same comments earlier and i saw a piece on the tape earlier that herd immunity globally is probably not something we're going to get for 22 months. >> right and with the fed that is already very clear about saying it's going to err on the side of staying more easy than not and wait for the actual economic data and the full employment evidence, and even inflation running hot for a while, before they try to anticipate it. it's not a proactive fed anymore. they won't assume the end of the pandemic or mission accomplished with the economic recovery until it is right in front of us >> there's the opening bell, guys, final trading day of the week as we see breadth fill in, a look at the nyse and the nasdaq as well we did talk about briefly some of these upgrades in the industrial space, david. rtx getting an upgrade honeywell as well. the general notion that some of these industrials are really laser poised for the exact part of the economy that is coming back to life >> yeah, and one won

we will get the march read at 8:30 a.m economists expect .50% with inflation up .2% yesterday, jim bullardays once the population reaches 75% of the vaccination, it will be possible to talk about the bond buying program here is where vaccinations stand. 22% of americans are vaccinated. nearly 50% of the people over 18 have received one dose vaccine. this is after the record setting weekend in the u.s. with 4.6 million people vaccinated in a single day >> you got to admit that's a little strange a herd number or vaccine number would be a cue to the federal reserve to start tapering bond purchases. >> i think that makes sense. i wonder why -- >> weird world we're living in taper tantrum a couple of years ago when the -- it makes sense if you connect the dots. it is weird. yesterday, we were going to every break with the latest covid headlines. i want a day where we have no covid headlines. that is wishful thing. in fed language, we wait for whether they say, remove one word or add one word 75%. not 74%. we may start tapiering bond purchase when the vaccination rate gets to 75% that is weird.

maria: yesterday we heard from federal official bullard. majority of people out there vaccinated, you have to believe that that's an allowance for the federal reserve for tapering. so what do you do in that regard? how do you set up portfolio knowing, hank, that you do have some pushback and you do have headwinds on the horizon in 2021. it could be the federal reserve begin to go change its language and could also be higher taxes. we have a corporate rate that's likely moving up and we will get details in $4 trillion in tax increases that joe biden wants to institute. we will get that detail in the next few weeks. >> well, initially, i think you celebrate the fact that the bond market is reflecting the potential for a stronger economy. we are going to get some reflation off of the deflation we had in the first half last year. that should be celebrated. the real question, maria, is will this be transitory inflation or will it become something a bit more insidious like a wage price spiral we witnessed in the late 70 -- 70's and we will not kn