my last guest said, don't listen to bullard.f you go for a slow progressive reduction in the balance sheet, i think you end mark in the team have done the analysis. it's a fairly minuscule impact. you think of to we ends, it's a .6% reduction in equities. do you really think that that is the scale of the impact on the equity market when tapering of qe finishes? kiran: i think it will -- there are so many factors that go into a this. whether it's the starting points , the pace of the taper, whether they continue to taper at a fixed pace, when rate hikes start. by the time you add all those things up over that kind of timeframe, other factors like economic growth, whether we see risk scenarios materializing, whether it's the delta variant, these things are much bigger than any one variable in the whole taper equation. we've got that reflexivity. the fed is going to be sensitive to all those other factors. if we start to see the equity market reacting very badly or the bond market reacting badly, the fed will take that into account

we tend to go with bullard and i just want to quote something that rosengren said last night. massive bond purchases are ill- suited for the u.s. economy as we stand today, so i mean that tells you, liz, that a lot of governors see it the way it is and taping should start sooner rather than later, and end around the time that bullard said either first quarter or second quarter of 2022. we need to taper. go ahead. liz: exactly, so i don't know why, you know, the hawks are hawks. as i said it looks like you've got basically bullard jumping in saying specifically, miss reading inflation signals could require very disruptive rate hikes, which brings me to jason hayber. we got this housing starts number which dropped to 13-month lows for the month of july, but you've got to clarify to our viewers. that is not necessarily the housing market suddenly freezing, is it? >> no, not at all. when you use the decline of 7% it's a surprise like that you want to look at both sides of the coin so first on the supply side, you're seeing that builder s had trouble delivering. why? because you kn

jim bullard has 2.5% for next year's inflation rate, we are at 3%.see the risk to the upside. a lot of the surveys continue to come out with very high price readings, the kind we have not seen since the early 1980's. if you are managing risks, the greater risk to me would be losing the gains you made against inflation than the risk the delta variant is going to -- we have a very effective policy tool to deal with the delta variant. it is called vaccination. we will get booster shots, and states in which people are not as highly vaccinated have much higher breakout rates. that is real, personal, human tragedy, unnecessary deaths. monetary policy does not speak to that and the claims data does not suggest the delta variant search is having a material impact on the economy. the third quarter may be much slower than the 6.6%. i do not think the consumer, with excess savings will be a major factory in the recovery and putting the brakes on. tom: john ryding, thank you so much. too short a visit. francine, you sit in london and you listen to these talks, a

thank president bullard.change, jim cramer you had a ceo of a dow component on last night, jim. >> i've got to tell you something, joe i know we have all this stuff about jackson hole and different people talk about taper, not taper. you and i both know there's some ceos who really put the wood to people i've got to tell you salesforce is just remarkable they are taking share, taking names. did an unbelievable quarter. another five straight quarters of 20% growth. it is a juggernaut i've got to tell you it's not being reflected fully enough yet in the stock it was just a monster quarter. some companies are doing so well, joe, and it's because of leadership and teamwork. >> did you -- are you familiar with kiopsia and surprised to see western digital -- >> that's a great thing. western digital will be a strong number two you'd have samsung in there. you have western digital but you would -- but the thing that's important is every time they do consolidation, price goes up. i think that micron, this is a big --

bullard: the key word is optionality for 2022. like to taper now and get it finished by the end of the first quarter. at that point i think we could assess what is happening in the economy with respect to inflation. by that time we will have many more jobs reports and it certainly looks like they will all be strong to varying degrees. unemployment will tick down at that point. that way we will be able to see in the first half of 2022 if inflation is moderating or not and if it is moderating then we were in great shape. if it is not moderating, then we might have to be more aggressive . i think that optionality has a lot of value right now. i think the purchases do not have much value right now. it seems like the trade-off is just right to me. let's phase out the purchases and give ourselves breathing room in 2022. michael: as you look over the forecast horizon, do you think inflation sticks around? pres. bullard: right now today i'm saying 2.5% or higher in 2022 core pce inflation. right now we are at 3.5% on core pce inflation. t

>> i think the most important thing that i read regarding james bullard is whether or not he's going to be alive when the fed's balance sheet gets back down to more moderate levels i know that's half comical, but when you really think about it, if the runoff is just as these securities expire, takes a long time to drain 8 trillion and i do believe that the demand at the auctions is something to consider moving forward, and its effects on interest rates. >> rick, thank you rick santelli out of the cme >>> what can be considered a pretty bold move, david kneelman decided to launch an airline called breeze airways, serving neglected and forgotten markets. the company says it has more than 100,000 passengers since launching and today announced a $200 million new round of funding for its expansion plans. joining me now, phil is with the ceo of breeze airways. >> david, joining us from the breeze headquarters in utah. we talked about the $200 billion you just announced in fundraising. tell us what that money is going toward will you be adding more aircraft to your order list already becaus

that feels like a prison lord -- president bullard.ing the flatter curve through next year, and i've got to get a flatter curve, something big needs to be happening at the front end. that is a hawkish move from the federal reserve, shortly. tom: very interesting. we will have ira jersey on this week to talk about the fixed income space. right now, this really dovetails into damian sassower adding value a few hours ago. david wilson considers china. dave: and specifically, the weight that chinese stocks of all kinds have and the msci emerging markets index. we know the story of the past month and the past six months is how chinese companies listed in the u.s. have taken a tumble. you've got the nasdaq open dragon china index, one benchmark for that group, down 25% for the year. you had a spill over into stocks traded on the mainland and also in hong kong. the msci china index is down 12%. put that together with the rest of the emerging markets in msci's benchmark gauge, and basically you have an index that is little changed while the s&

bullard of the regime change. there has been a few.nk michael mckee will ask about the regime change. stay with us on radio and television. experts on the fed, presidents on the fed, and then the chairman at 10:00. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work o

think what chair powell is dealing with now is increasingly fractious fed, so you're hearing from bullard, rosen green, a number of folks from kaplan this morning and all of it is a little bit of hey, look, this doesn't make as much sense as it used to, so i don't think chair powell is going to get in front of a much broader audience and say anything supersubstantive because ultimately he's got to get his own cabinet in line first. >> all right jason, thank you you're the one man cabinet today. we really appreciate your point of view trying to explain these markets. it's god to have you jason brady. >>> meanwhile the s.e.c. is warming up to a bitcoin etf and the battle is well underway to see who will become the first money manager to get theirs out the door bob pisani is here with the latest bob? >> kelly, here's the problem everybody thought gary gents letter was going to be the golden boy for bitcoin he taught crypto at m.i.t. therefore he gets it no what gensler has done is intelligent. first he said i am in favor of financial innovation, and he's been very bullish on that. he's point

you do your business i like that, david. >> good, you've had your issues with bullard in the past >>ot anymore i've made peace with bullard. >> i know you have >> it's like i said i made peace with darren wood, but i'm not on a first name basis with darren. >> you call him mr. woods. >> i'm just saying, james and i, we don't -- it's not -- i'm just saying i thought he did a good job. it's much more of a one way. by the way, if danbury is bought by exon, then all the pressure will go away >> got it, right >> carbon caption. >> carbon capture is the most important story. >> very important, we've got to follow it more closely maybe we'll get down there to exon and visit a little more. >> do you agree with me? >> i do. >> from the fed, to exon, to the opening bell that was software company bloban, a celebration of their new listing. hr software and services company paychecks celebrating their 50th anniversary. by the way, george, esther george of kansas city sort of echoed bullard she said delta is a risk factor but if the framework is substantial further progress, we're doing that we're

andrew, do you think president bullard could win people over in the fomc? andrew: i don't think they will be as aggressive as bullard is suggesting. i think we are seeing a fed that is moving faster and further to pull back on these purchases and if you look at what is happening with the economy, with prices and inflation, this is all moving faster than fed officials expected. we had fomc rhetoric that was trying to set up portals to pulling back asset purchases and you are just getting through those milestones a lot faster than anyone was expecting. tom: andrew, from an economist standpoint, what do big negative real yields signal? is it about the nominal yield, the inflation expectation or the residual to actual real yield? andrew: the idea of a negative real yield was always a puzzle because negative real yield is essentially saying if you have any ideas or productive projects, it is more productive the negative -- more productive than negative. negative real yield is telling you something about the equilibrium rate in the economy and the equilibrium rat

louis federal reserve president james bullard.g etch speech. do not miss that. >>> president biden didn't deny a disturbing report claiming that u.s. officials provided the taliban with a list of names of our allies. roll tape. >> i can't tell you with any certitude that there's actually been a list of names. there may have been. ashley: bret baier, by the way, will be joining me with his reaction and, of course, his expert analysis next. ♪♪ they said it couldn't be done but you managed to pack a record 1.1 trillion transistors into this chip whoo! yeah! oh, hi i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be circuit design engineer to help push progress forward can i hold the chip? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq (vo) singing, or speaking. can i reason,e chip? or fun. daring, or thoughtful. sensitive, or strong. progress isn't either or progress is everything. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things m

jonathan: that was jim bullard. from new york city this morning, good morning.ngside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the thursday morning price action. about 12 minutes away from initial jobless claims data and america. equity futures advancing 0.25% on the s&p, inching back towards all-time highs on the s&p 500. yields going nowhere, 1.1819% on the 10 year. $1.1848 on euro-dollar, positive 0.09%. tom: for all of you on radio and tv, steven ric -- steven ricchi uto of mizuho will join us. before that, ben emons writes incredibly thoughtful pieces on central banks worldwide. i am going to cut to the chase. the great economist jon ferro said a while back, are there any hawks left? ben emmons, are there any hawks left? ben: i think there are. i think james bullard may be is one of them, even though he's now considered a dove yet i think a hawk is about risk management. they are looking at inflation above target. they think it is transitory, but they don't want to take a full chance on it. so there is some level of hawkish and us or hawk --

jim bullard it also saying he is worried about inflation. maybe not temporary. let's listen to what he told us. >> i would expect something between 2.5% and 3%. it will come down but not as fast as what many people have in mind. kathleen: that was jim bullard speaking at a webinar. let's give you one more idea. charlie evans spoke to bloomberg television last week. he is sticking to 2024. he things may be it could spike and come back down below target. there is still debate going on there. haidi: elizabeth warren bashing jay powell's record. meanwhile, praising leo brainard. how much does this potentially way into the debate for his reappointment? kathleen: we know that many liberal democrats, the progressives on that side of the aisle are saying that they do not want a republican man heading the fed. he has done a great job but let's get a woman. let's get a woman of color. elizabeth warren criticizing jay powell for not being tough enough on banks. she counters with leo brainard, governor at the fed who has been much more adamant about saying we have to be the

louis fed president jim bullard telling edward lawrence of fox business bubbles are forming and it's time to slice those bond purchases listen. >> i'm not sure these purchases are really doing anything. at this stage of the recovery, because we do have this in sip yet housing bubble that i don't want to be feeding into that. i do think that the most important thing about this is when you get done, what is the date at which you want to make your last purchase and i'd like that to be at the end of the first quarter. liz: speaking for the first time since both interviews we're joined by the former president of the federal reserve bank of atlanta, dennis lockheart. you know, dennis, it was almost as if chairman powell was very gingerly walking this line. yes, we could start tapering, but don't get any big ideas. is it or is it not time to get going on tapering? >> i think he came out pretty clear. he said that it will begin some time this year, which means they will probably make an announcement at the october meeting, possibly the september meeting, and begin not too long thereafter, so

some of the folks like jim bullard and robert kaplan today said they thought the first interest ratencrease may come in the fourth quarter of next year. that all works with that timeline. powell has not endorsed a timeline but i would imagine the committee -- that he is pretty close to the consensus on committee thinking. matt: bloomberg's michael mckee walking us through jay powell's speech earlier at the virtual jackson hole symposium. joining us now is someone who used to work for the fed. claudia sahm is the senior fellow at the jain family institute, former federal reserve economist. any surprises from you today from jay powell? claudia: it was exactly the speech we needed, a boring speech. it was very much study as she goes. frankly, markets and analysts thought that this would be the taper unveil, and some had probably priced that in. that was not the speech we got today. he was very clear that we are not due substantial progress on the labor market, and that is key. even though he said we have got it on inflation, but we have a dual mandate. that is what he is sticking with,

powell speaks tomorrow and bullard imppz powell to give us a pretty good assessment of where we are tomorrow when he speaks this is happening on overall light volume as we go into the final days of august with that jobs number a peek away from tomorrow >>> let's get to "the half" with tyler mathisen. >> thank you, everyone i am tyler mathisen in for scott wapner we have a lot to get through in the next hour but we begin with breaking news on the explosion at kabul's airport >> we know there have been two explosions there and the number of casualties has risen in recent minutes these are the first pictures coming in. this is unclear if this is at the hospital or the scene. we do know, and sources are telling -- first of all, from the pentagon officially we have multiple injuries, multiple casualties this from john kirby, the pentagon spokesperson. we can confirm the explosion at the abbey gate was the result of a complex attack that ruld in a number of u.s. 1civilian casualties we can confirm another explosion at the baron holtz we'll continue to update i have a soot light map and i have more

>> i would add to that bullard just came out today and also made comments that tapering should starter than later. the question is, the balance sheet was seen as an extraordinary measure to help federal reserve policy. the question is are we at a point where nearly zero interest rates can do the job and the arbiter of this is of course the virus itself, right? so i call this sort of the delta derail. delta really has the potential to derail us now. of course the announcement from the cdc that people should get third vaccinations, the fact that we're increasing first dose vaccinations is all going to be really critical to making sure we don't have a full-on delta derail. charles: feels like if toe wait another eight months for people to get the third dose, that may be added to the fed timeline. i'm just guessing here. listen to this, let's say tapering is going to happen. what i would like to know from you is, just initially how much will we see? like in other words, will the focus be on mortgage-backed securities? the timeline, how long would it take to wrap it all up? i know you say

it was about fed officials talking today including robert kaplan and jim bullard, talking about fed tapering and how we should be starting to move more quick lee. esther george saying the risks from delta do not alter the taper urgency and it is important to get darted while scaling back bond buying but when it came to the market moves for today, it was really interesting that it was the afghanistan headlines that have not moved the market that much in the past that really made an impact on asset prices. paul: the situation in afghanistan did take a turn for the worst in the past few hours. two blasts killing 12 u.s. soldiers. a total of 60 people killed, many injuries as well. president buying saying the u.s. did not forget, did not forgive, and would hunt down those responsible. the white house saying the deadline, august 31 for evaluating -- evacuating those who helped the u.s. during the long afghan campaign, the deadline remains unchanged. president wright and has vowed to hunt down those behind the attack. let's listen to what he had to say. pres. biden: for those who carried out this

president bullard said something different.e expressed to have some time between the end of tapering, the end of qe, and the beginning of tightening, so we need to get that done faster than expected. so that we have flexibility to move when we want to move. he thinks things could be much sooner. i'm skeptical about moving that fast, and the other hand 120 billion dollars a month is becoming a small amount considering the size of the treasury, the size of outstanding issues and given the imbalances that exist in the reserve repo facilities. you could argue that tapering is just to clean up technical issues in the treasury market. but how do you communicate that? jonathan: i don't know. clearly the chairman has some problems doing that, because he just raised his hands with no clue. francis, let's start with you. if we do begin to taper in the coming months, if it is september, if it is later, is that bullish or bearish for treasuries? frances: traditionally bullish, but it is not the wind, it is the how. can they pair the taper

for instance, james bullard was saying he basically wants to reduce the asset purchases by maybe $20on a month on the treasuries, $10 billion a month on mortgage-backed securities per month as it goes down and at a quicker if pace in order to get that out of the way. therefore, if inflation doesn't come back down, then they could use their interest rate tools to get it back up. neil: got it. edward, thank you very much. the president meeting with the israeli prime minister. let's dip into this. >> let me begin by once again acknowledging the bravery and the sacrifice that our military makes every single day. the loss of americans and marines and the sailor, personnel, is tragic. as i said yesterday, and the prime minister and i have talked about it as he's a military man, gone to war, lost a friend if, you know, losing a son, a daughter, a husband, a wife is like being sucked into a big black hole in your chest. you don't think there's any way out. you wonder what's happening. so my heart goes out, our hearts go out to all those who we've lost. but, look, the mission there being perf

he stopped the mets from further damage. 12 fitting and the name of kevin bullard. a three run homer. not much cooled off but that did as the mets with a 1-6 moments the giants leave the second-place dodgers by 3 1/2 games. dodgers play tonight. the giants have the day off and open up a series at the a's friday. >>> this time really heal all wounds? i asked is because i bring up two former teammates, olympic teammates draymond green and kevin durant appeared together on a 24 minute conversation produced by bleacher report. a wide-ranging interview touching on the decision to leave the golden state and the infamous november 2018 oncor dustup at the clrs. listen to who to rent pins the blame on. >> how much did the argument drive you to argue? >> it was the argument. it was the way everybody acts like it did not happen. bottom line, it was disingenuous to think that would put the mask over everything. >> i don't know. a quote from last year. draymond green. i just had to accept the fact i was wrong. >> it's story. all right thank you. >>> coming up, the extra >>> stud

c, including bullard and rosen grid. both of them are on the wires today saying it is and to get this taper going, if you could imagine a quadruple descent, when powell has had one of the most quiet, complacent fetters or terms in all crime, it should be. it's hard to imagine. but again, it is not an organization coming in as a former insider where you want to see a lot of disagreement where you want to see dirty laundry eric out into the open. yeah, certainly seems like one of those cases where timing is everything and obviously they want everyone on the same page. now i want to bring up a comment that was made by powell prior to the apple m. c minutes being released this week. he spoke during a virtual town hall for educators and students saying we're not going back to the economy that we had before the pandemic. now he mentioned the increase in telework restaurants offering more take out and real estate agents learning to show homes of virtually in your opinion, what is the lasting impact? i mean, is this going to be

bullard wants the taper over by the first quarter 2022. alibaba falls to a record low over fears of additional regulation on china tech. investors expect more curbs from beijing. welcome to the european market open. 7:00 a.m. here in london. much later in singapore. good afternoon. what is on your radar? mark: in the last 15 minutes the mood has deteriorated sharply. it was a risk-averse session. we carried that mood into the asian session with commodities taking the brunt of pain. the usual names were suffering, hong kong stocks were down. 15 minutes ago toyota slashed its output for cars, it is mainly a supply story. supply chain issues getting semiconductor chips, and they are worried about the delta variant. that has weighed on the market. equities extend losses, commodities extend losses, the dollar strengthened further. it looks like the session in europe will be interesting. francine: if you look at the futures, pointing to a lower start. i'm looking at what they are telling us now. we are one hour from the start of cash european eq

rosengram, the guy that way up with buying corporate assets can't say a hawk by nature bullard, gone and rosengram and -- and -- bullard and waller, all of those guys, they've been all over the map they're not died in the wool hawks, mix a couple metaphors there. >> announcement of taper and start of taper on wall street, when it all comes out saying start of taper to happen next year, or whenever it is, is that, is it presumed that will be in the form of rates or would it be in the form of, you know i don't know -- bond purchases or corporate bond activity i mean -- what do you think that is >> well, the taper -- taper means reducing the fed's asset purchases and the fed right now is buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities the two things that it's purchasing what will happen -- by the way, another debate there the time period over which it happens. not just when announced or what time period. one of the fed officials talked about a faster taper krishna wrote a piece saying may happen over eight months bullard said get her done by march. that could be one other aspect, and m

bullard had a different view when it comes to inflation. here is what he had to say. >> i would expect between 2.5 and 3% in 2022. it is going to come down but not as fast as many people have in mind. yvonne: as we mentioned it's really about state media we are watching out of china here today. it's a major reaction every time we see a headline about some form of society. and e-cigarettes, you cannot sell to minors. and then it's about growth hormone injections. i did not know people cared so much that they had to do this. of course it's a concern to beijing and how they say it has dangerous side effects. we will talk more about that. regulatory risk still very much front and center the on just the fed. rishaad: rejoined by aaron brown , pimco has something like $2 trillion in assets for global management. what is the mood like as? >> optimistic. we are coming out of the pandemic but we are still early to mid cycle in terms of coming out of the recession that preceded us in 2020. i think the growth outlook going forward still looks robust.

louis's james bullard urged policymakers to move quickly to slow asset purchases.come in lindsey piegza from steeple. what do you expect to hear from the fed tomorrow, how do you think markets are going to react? the chairman will strike an optimistic tone, highlighting the improvement we have seen in the economy, particularly noting the strong employment games we have seen with the backdrop of the july nonfarm payrolls, adding one million jobs. continued strong activity in manufacturing, services, a housing market that is very solid, all translating into a very strong gdp profile over 6.5%. first and foremost, the chairman will focus on the improvement we have seen. that being said, i think he will also highlight the need for further improvement, particularly in the labor market. as he pointed out many times, some of the subgroups of the labor market have lagged behind the national average. from a monetary policy standpoint, he will be very clear that risks remain. yes, we have seen a lot of progress, yes, we are seeing strong growth, but that does not mean that w

how much stock we have put into this, could we equate this to jim bullard in the u.s.?he comes out he's hawkish and the market becomes immune? i don't know? francine: i would say more hawkish, because of muscle memory coming from the netherlands and inflation in the 70's and 80's. more hawkish. alix: and we are definitely seeing a temper tantrum in the european bond market because this is not priced in. let's get back to the buyers here, we see a guarded need for that third dose of covert shots. a study found the moderna vaccine makes more than double the antibodies. when are we getting clarity on that booster, the biden administration wants it by september 20. >> we don't know yet if they are going to meet again, they wanted more data and they will meet again on september. in the meantime, we will see some subtle differences between the vaccine and they did this one preliminary study out of belgium where they found the moderna vaccine have somewhat higher levels of antibodies. that's intriguing, but what's more important is the clinical protection which is holding up t

specifically, we know that president kaplan and fed president bullard were hawks, they said they wantt tapering. but we got additional comments last week from two others looking to start to taper, so we think it will be negative for rates. when you include senator manchin, who said, we need to start tapering immediately, giving the fed cover to do that. as well as what he said today, saying he will not support extending unemployment and moratoriums, now we think rates will rise. keep in mind, the treasury had to work down the general account, their bank balance sheet, from $1.8 trillion to $500 million, so that is done. as the debt ceiling gets worked out, you will get new issuance. we think the reason rates have come down is likely due to a supply shock of treasury issuance. and we think that will resume very soon. guy: are we going to get volatility? have known this is coming, so can the fed taper without a tantrum? gordon: i do not think so. i think if there is going to be a taper, there will definitely be a tantrum. but given you now have people in congress pushing for a taper, th

louis fed president james bullard will be our special guest.hat summit -- as the summit begins it's 80 m. f:3a.or bullard "squawk box" will be right back. >>> the pandemic has disproportionately impacted black student loan borrowers, but some historically black colleges and universities are stepping in to help by using federal funding to help erase student debt senior personal financial correspondent sharon epperson has that story >> we were all surprised, we were like is this really is this really happening >> reporter: the undergrads at clark university were stunned when they heard their unpaid student balances had been wiped out. >> when i found out i was speechless we were all just talking about how it was such a blessing. >> reporter: the historically black university was one of the first in the nation to use federal pandemic relief aid to cancel student debt. >> we are committing $5 million assisting nearly 2,000 students with account balances. >> reporter: george t. french jr. president of the university says the move will help boost enr

then you have bullard saying, first quarter of 2020 two, that is when i want to see tapering done. it is so divided. it has brought the market to a division. where these yields are going to go. it is turning into a very bifurcated market. let's get our question of the day, i will ask mliv about this -- -- how will the taper affect assets? what do you think? >> i think you can start with the u.s. equity market. finally starting to show some weakness. it has been a market which has ignored the needs for quite some time. several fed members have been talking about possible tapering for a while. but the fact that it is in a statement and maybe equity traders who have been willing to ignore quite a few hawkish signals in the past, maybe they are realizing that tapering is really coming. what that often means in the early stages is u.s. equities lose momentum. my colleague will write on mliv. what it means in practice is usually the short-term rates will get pushed up faster than long-term rates. that is certainly a negative for u.s. stocks. when you see the curve flattening with a beari

fed presidents bullard and kaplan both speaking., cisco, robinhood, victoria's secret. there also be a briefing on afghanistan and president biden will hold a briefing on the virus in the third round of shots we will be getting by the looks of things. alix: tomorrow still busy. we get a rate decision out of norway, u.s. initial jobless claims, earnings from estee lowder and macy's and this is tesla's ai day. will be interesting, especially after the government is launching an investigation into autonomous software. guy: absolutely. is this the dividing line between tesla and the rest of the auto pack? alix: coming up, rick rieder, blackrock cio global fixed income joining balance of power with david westin. we are headed to bloomberg radio as well. the cable, dab digital radio starting at 12:00, 5:00 in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours

jim bullard is worried about inflation and maybe that's what those word about stimulus are worried about too. let's listen. >> i would expect between 2.5% and 3% in 2022. it's going to come down, but not as fast as many people had in mind. kathleen: let's remember that we just had an interview with charlie evans from the chicago fed last week. he still sees the first rate hike in 2024. he thinks it could go up and go back down below target. so there are still a number of opinions. the hawkish camp is growing and spreading its feathers. shery: let's delve into what's going to happen at the fed. our next guest is waiting for jackson hole to get more details on the fed timetable. max, great to have you with us. kathleen just mentioned we are seeing some divergence and debate within the fed. what are you expecting to hear later this month? max: i think we will hear the plan for what the taper is going to look like. where in the duration in the car they play, that will be important. one thing that is crucial to note, given the vice chair's comments is that there is not so much need for additi

james bullard coming out for a start this year. carquest, executive director of -- kirk west is here. give us a sense of what you are making a what might come out of jackson hole, and really have that plays into markets, and how much of this bond buying program is being at the moment priced in. >> good morning to you both, thank you very much for having me. i think what you are seeing in the governor's speech, the chairman's speech is looking for consensus and also optionality. i mean i don't think that three nonvoting members come out and start talking about tapering. i think that will be caught in the address and that is becoming the base case. what does it mean for markets? it might well find that the markets are disappointed if is not the outcome. from our perspective, we continue to be very much comfortable with a risk-on position. rishaad: you can't have kiwi forever, or can you? the japanese perhaps could argue that you can't have quantitative easing forever, or can you? let's look at the asset bubble which has also come up

but there are a couple of orders next year, ames bullard -- -- he would like to begin in the fall.nd esther george, a longtime hawk. . she is interested in having the debate around tightening but she is less interested in any decisions. it will be interesting to see how this shakes down. shery: and really what it does to the commodity space as well. because it is really vulnerable. remember last week with the july fomc minutes, commodities took a hit? this week they have been rallying, but swinging between gains and hits. gold and copper. we will now focus on the macroeconomic vulnerabilities around the world, so we are watching the commodity space closely. let's get over to su keenan with the first word headlines. su: vice president kamala harris said she raised human rights concerns with officials. however when questioned, the vice president failed to mention any specific commitments made by hanoi, or explain how vietnam's human rights record is worse than that of china. india reported more than 46,000 covid-19 cases on thursday. the southeastern state of kerala reported a surge

you clear the narrative away from what we have heard from the lexapro below dark -- from president bullardich made some noise over the past month? lisa: i would agree as well. i am looking at this data and looking at the market reaction, and wondering whether basically this pushes the potential taper to january. how many jobs reports does the fed need to see before they are comfortable tapering rates and tapering their bond purchases? if we get a bad jobs report friday, does this push the potential taper into 2022? jonathan: it is not about the adp report. if payrolls friday looks like this, we have a very different conversation, and governor brainard starts to look smarter than she already does. a lot of people, i think the base case is still, whenever going to start? december, and an announcement in september? tom: i am going to wait for the data. one of the great observations i've learned from michael mckee is the asymmetry of any jobs report. it is about the gloom of jobs, but on the other side at the same time, the job formation. what is going to be necessary on friday is to say, ok,

much support does this market need in the environment we are in right now and the likes of president bullard. they've already seen the data. as far as they are concerned, we are not in an emergency and the view -- an emergency anymore. we need some optionality for 2022. i'm with you, tom. others disagree. what did they say this morning, no hikes through 2024? i started this conversation by saying no consensus on. . a wide range of views that is where we are at -- on a wide range of views. that's where we are at right now. tom: when do we get the dots redone? next time around. jonathan: looking forward to the coverage, tom. i can see you are excited. tom: i want to see the data. jonathan: is romaine bostick with your movers this morning. romaine: let's start off with alibaba. we did get earnings out of the company. a lot of folks were focused on the come at a because of the regulatory overhang. in the short term, that doesn't appear to be a huge impact. you are talking about a company with $2 billion in revenue here and a company that still seems to be investing in its business longer-term, s

on the same theme there's another quotation from an african-american named eugene bullard who was living in france when the war broke out and volunteered in the french foreign legion and served in the lafayette flying corps, which was made up of american volunteers flying for france. and inscribed on the side of this plane flown by an african-american volunteer were the words "all blood runs red." in the middle of the belvedere we have this medalion. the medallion is an enlargement of the allied victory medal that was given to soldiers of all the allied nations that fought in world war i. every country adopted this symbol of winged victory as the front of the medal, and then each nation designed its own imaginary for the reverse of the medal. we obtained the original dye of the world war i victory medal from the u.s. army's institute of heraldry. and we had a laser scan made of that medal, and then enlarged into five feet in diameter, molded and then cast in bronze by the same foundry that will cast the scripture that will go here in a couple years. and we installed that here in the cent

jim bullard has been outspoken in saying he would like to have it done by the second quarter of 2022.eak with robert kaplan tomorrow. he has said we should do it in about eight months. it took to his failures last time so perhaps they could get stuck -- it took two years last time so perhaps they could get started by the end of the year. alix: looking forward to all of the coverage tomorrow. michael mckee will bring you all of the key moments tomorrow on bloomberg television. let's recap the headlines out of afghanistan. the pentagon confirming two blast, one outside of the baron hotel in kabul at the other outside of the airport where there has been u.s. civilian casualties. the taliban spokesperson speaking about this blaming the u.s. saying they responsible for security at the site and due to the crowd there that evening that caused the type of intense blast we saw. also saying they will probe who conducted the airport attacks and they will condemn them in the "strongest terms." coming up "bounds of power." mary barra be joining david westin. this is bloomberg. ♪ introducing xfinit

jim bullard telling reuters will have -- telling reuters the fed will have to cope with more market changeit seems the st. louis fed president is on the same page as governor waller and former head of research of the st. louis fed. those two look like they are building a partnership on that fed. tom: i would suggest they are slaves to the data like anyone else. we are starting with a key friday determinant, and frankly the auto data will be interesting, even with a chip shortage. jon, it is the granularity of data we will all have to digest. jonathan: euro-swiss maker -- euro-swiss emma lewis level this year. with some swissie strength in the mix. tom: jon and i tear up over this because this is how john and i met. with the swiss franc moving in here. jonathan: would not be surprised with that. euro-swiss right now, north of .1%. tom: let's go to washington right now. what is so fascinating about what we see in the news, the infrastructure front and center. there is a sign always in the summer when one topic overtakes all in washington. annmarie hordern knows exactly the e word, eviction.

we had to hawkish comments not only from jim bullard, but from esther george.is a timeline problem? if you want to make sure that you can work with interest rates, tapering needs to come soon, and a matter what happens with inflation. greg: i think the important thing, as you talk about interest rates at the fed, is recognizing how different the world we are in today from the world we have experienced. when you talk about interest rates, it is really not the private sector driving interest rates, reflecting economic conditions. it is much more what policy do central bankers want to have happen. so the move from controlling short rates to controlling long rates, and to some degree controlling spreads. if you think about the policy they are trying to drive, the big thing that is going to drive bond yields is the fusion of monetary and fiscal policy creates outcomes that the central bank no longer desires. that is where we sort of our. right now we can control the interest rate through fiscal policy and control nominal gdp, but there are consequences. the conseque

you had kaplan, bullard, george yesterday saying, let's do this. let's do this now.oting members are people that have decaf chai tea. you know. taylor: i am the token warm body today, tom. tom: well, the token warm body switched. taylor riggs with us today, and we value that. get off her case. stay with us on a friday. your swissie right now -- euro-swissie now, one point 10572. this is bloomberg -- 1.10572. this is bloomberg. ritika: the deadly attack in kabul has shaken the exit strategy. a pair of bombings code at least 13 u.s. service members and 60 afghans, and renewed criticism from allies and lawmakers about the way the u.s. is pulling out. president has vowed to go after the terrorist. he is also pledging to stick to the august 31 withdrawal date. the two are expected to discuss their divergent approaches on iran. the u.s. favors a diplomatic agreement to stop iran's nuclear program. they said they may use secret attacks. there's a chance that audi could bill card that could build cars in the u.s. they spoke about the chances. >> discussions on possible produ

got so much information on some of these railroad projects that he became an investor, the famous bullardouse in manhattan, of course he lost a lot of fortune, railroad stocks crashed, they went up and down but he eventually finance thomas edison so that's another great story but would go back to german investors because he is originally from germany to say you know this railroad pure fantasy in kansas city, you might want to take another look at the paper and the statements, i can help you with this and he made robert these and that he got stock and became filthy rich. but is still there and his history is probably as interesting as anybody else from that era. >> for final question before we close, you visited so many lincoln tourist destinations, which is your favorite? >> oh goodness, that's a tough one, that's like picking your favorite child. that's not fair. come on. you know, the thing that strikes me, this is something that most people even associate with lincoln, there's a place called lincoln planting it's one of those things were lincoln came through their after his only term i

we've only heard from the more hawkish members and i can guarantee you at the next meeting neither bullard, george, nor kaplan will be dissenting votes. why? they're not voters and so one of the traditions is you get the people who are not voters to take the more extreme positions. i would like to hear from mary daley, charlie evans, who will be voters for the rest of the year and setting the timing of the tapering discussion. and kaplan won't be a voter until 2023 so these are things i think the market is well aware of which is why the reaction today in the marketplace isn't so extreme to this kind of early tapering discussion >> so is it in the category of idle talk, then, or are these folks just not even heard? >> the tradition where you want to announce policy changes is to get the early extremes out in the open and have that discussion so that the markets are ready and i think the lesson learned from chair bernanke is don't ever say anything that says autopilot, don't say anything about models. chair powell, when he came into office said we make decisions. human beings make decisions

going out was that he became an investor in the finance, famous house in manhattan, that was henry bullard fortune to the railroad stock crash and went up and down pretty eventually financed common sense in. so is another great story but it would go back to german investors because he was originally from germany and he was a look, you know this railroad that your financing, you might want to take another look the paper and i can help you with us. the main future brokerage fees and they became filthy rich with the stocks. this history is probably as interesting as anybody else. >> of final question. even his so many lincoln destinations, which is your favorite. the tourist destinations. john: is a tough one, like picking your favorite child, that is not fair, come on. the thing that really strikes me this is not something that most people even associate with lincoln, it's a place called lincoln landing in rockport illinois and is one of those things were lincoln came through there and is only from in congress, who whispered my imagination is how did lincoln see the future of the country. he