bullard as well. st.nator shelly moore catee poepito will be joi right after this >>> we're fighting inflation by further putting more production in energy so we're basically taking care of the needs of energy now and basically investing this energy for the future, and we're doing that while we're reducing the amount of prices for gas all of us agree, the more supply you have, the better chance you have of driving down the price so we're doing that. we're paying down, reducing all the drug prices. so when you think that millions of people across america will be paying lower drug prices because of medicare being able to negotiate. >> that was senator joe manchin explaining how he came to an agreement with the inflation reduction act. good morning to you. you saw your colleague on the air yesterday as he made the rounds, talking about his decision to support this there are benefits to your state, is thasenator. >> i think the overall impact to our state is devastating last weekend, the folks at home were ve

louis fed president jim bullard.nks for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> tyler gives you a curtain raise, a man who speaks his mind and not afraid to talk about where things are going what's your take a couple of weeks ago you talked about a 4.4 peak funds rate. are you still in line with that idea >> i think i said 3.75 to 4. >> okay. >> -- is my target for this year, for the end of this year, and i like the front loading i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got inflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate we had a good debate in the noon hour of the idea of 50 and 75 and how much does it matter? what's the upside of that? i think the front loading idea is that first of all, you show you're serious about inflation fighting and you want to get up to the level that will put downward pressure on inflation and we're at 2.33 right now. that's not high enough to be serious about

james bullard, the st. louis fed president will be with steve in a couple hours' time a little less than that now. what is the best outcome for the stock market >> you know, it is a great question i just have a good answer. when any data point comes out, you know, i think the best are 50/50 in terms of what the market reaction is because even though the market is pricing 50 to 75, when it actually happens and the commentary around it happens, that's when you really don't know what the result is going to be in the market so for me, i don't think 75 bishops bips would be good powell already had all the other fed governors out here come out as hawkish as they could possibly be including today. sure there have been some glimmers of hope like saying, hey. let's see what happens after september and we'll assess and that is what the market is hanging on to because it is always optimistic. i don't think this is going to be the powell speech where we're saying we're dying on the hill, we're going to keep going peddl

james bullard says he prefers to frontload hikes in september.tant data coming through before that position and esther george saying the rate may need to get back above 4% to get inflation down. the benchmark gains of 0.4% in europe. we had ofgem and that announcement, increasing to 3500 pounds in u.k., a reminder on the squeeze on households. the ftse 100 getting 0.5% and the dax is up 0.6%. let's look at how things are playing out across sectors. energy is gaining this morning and yields are up in terms of the benchmark on that yield space. tech up 1.4% and we have that coming out in terms of a deal closer between u.s. and china. that possibly is providing some support in terms of asian shares and the chinese listings in hong kong. that is what is happening across your sectors moving into the session this friday. that's get back to the energy squeeze under pressure on u.k. household. they will now pay triple the price to heat their home this winter compared to a year ago. this is after ofgem raised the energy price cap on the back of soaring en

. >> higher for longer, that was the take away from james bullard. >> inflation, that is, and presumably interest rates. >> and the market could be underpricing it. stocks are up and technology the best performing sector. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" begins right now. >>> stocks moving higher as wall street awaits fed powell's speech in jackson hole the most important hour of the trading day starts now i'm carl kwinquintanilla in forr eisen. oil is below 93, vix below 23. sa salesforce weighing heavily on the dow after kcutting their guide. snowflake heating up on an earnings beat. today we'll talk to mark fields about california's new effort to ban the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035. first up, though, we'll bring in tony to talk about jackson hole today and what may come tomorrow, tony it's great to have you back. we spoke a few days ago going into the exsymposium. have they found the runway enough is the chair's job a little easier tomorrow? >> it should be. in this day and age, transparency is the name of the game there aren't as many secrets as

, james bullard.hat's at 7:30 a.m. on "squawk box. a must-watch. >>> nancy pelosi in taiwan for a second straight day. the first visit to the island by a house speaker since newt gingrich, the republican house speaker in 1997. this is after heated rhetoric. live pictures on your screen right now. we're awaiting her departure right now. this is kind of the whole dynamic that we're going to see play out we're watching right now currently live shots just around some of the transportation hubs and airports where nancy pelosi is we'll keep an eye on that. we'll bring you more details nbc's jay gray joins us now from washington good morning, jay. >> reporter: good morning. the speaker running a little behind schedule. we had expected her to be on her way to the plane that should happen momentarily look, as you said, despite their independent government, china still considers taiwan a terror area that trip is threatening the already shaky relationship between the u.s. senate's biggest economic and political

lot, that's what bullard thinks. we have a slowing economy. the fed will tighten a lot more and we're not going to go into recession, but still, how is that great for stocks? >> well, more than half of the s&p has reported already and the numbers are pretty good and they were much more better than feared and paypal was much better than expected and i know we'll talk about it, but i think it was surprisingly positive and remember that the fed was telling us that inflation was transitory it wasn't. much higher than expected. the fed has told us several things about the economy and these are very smart people, all of them and i have huge respect for jay powell and all of the governors, but honestly, they didn't get it right. so if you have one say yes, we'll keep hiking all through 2023 and another say, well, perhaps we'll back off i think the market has decided that for now things are better than expected and that earnings were recently good inflation seems to be coming down and interest rates have not gone up as quick

if you look at the fed rate outlook, kelly, the market is at 3.50 bullard is at 3.75 to 4% you still250 he's more aggressive than the overall committee but not necessarily more aggressive where the market is. there's been this 50, 75 it's interesting, kelly. i do not see much of a change in the probabilities. we were at 60% probability of a 50 this morning and we're still at 57. so just down a little bit really a little bit more leaning towards the 75 but not the odds-on favorite right now esther george saying she was encouraged by the july inflation report but no time for a victory lap. she still sees a significant difference between the supply and demand in this economy so she is also onboard what's happening, kelly, i think you may understand, the market is perceiving this pivot, perceiving these rate cuts next year and the fed is leaning against it am bullard is saying again as he told us, it's premature for the market to be counting on rate cuts next year. >> it's fascinating and 2.88 for the ten year steve, thanks for bringing that to us. our steve liesman. >>> coming up, $54 b

jim bullard doubles down on that message. their top priority is bringing down inflation.hleen, it seems like the fed officials were trying to deal with this. >> if you don't listen to what they say you will get yourself in and a fixation where they are wrong. if it looks like the economy is going down, it will be a recession surely they will have to call back. the fed has to get more restrictive. he also thinks that they can pull off a soft landing because they have more credibility then when he came in. he was untested but such a different position now. let's listen to something he said. >> i would like to see the policy rate get to 3.75 or 4% this year. i think inflation has come in hotter than what i would have expected during the second quarter. now that that has happened, i think we will have to go a little bit higher than what i was saying before. >> he went on to say that we would be more data-dependent. he raised rates a lot. he thinks this will have to go at the end of the year. somewhere in the middle between the markets and the fed saying we are not done fighti

one of the most hawkish policymakers james bullard backs a big move.reet journal there should be another 75 basis point hike. the kansas city president was more cautious saying that the fed has already done a lot of tightening. xi jinping and vladimir putin are planning to attend a group of 20 summit in indonesia according to the indonesian president in an interview with bloomberg. their presence which -- would set up a showdown with other leaders opposed to the invasion of ukraine. intelligence officials say that russia is probably using a nuclear power plant in southern ukraine to shield troops and equipment undermining the security of the plant. the nuclear facility as europe's largest. shares of bed bath & beyond are plunging and investors reacted after news that ryan cohen has sold his stake in the retailer. the retail investors are feeling the pain. footlocker is surging. the athletic retailer said richard johnson will retire and be replaced by the one who ran global marketing for mcdonald's. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg qui

jim bullard says he favors frontloading with big rate hikes. minneapolis counterpart says they are committed to lowering prices. san francisco thinks rates will remain high for up to a year. president joe biden will sign a second executive order intended to improve access to abortion services a day after voters in kansas rejected a name -- amendment to their state constitution that would have erased abortion rights. elon musk's lawyers are accusing twitter. in a letter to the judge, his lawyers say twitter was demanding time to review material to wage a media campaign and keep elon musk's side of the story concealed. twitter says they are trying to skirt court rules. professional golfers are suing the pga tour calling it an illegal monopoly. they say it is hurting their careers by suspending them for joining saudi arabia's financed liv tour. they say it is part of the plan to squash the rival tour and they are seeking a court order to lift the anticompetitive actions. global news 24 hours per day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analy

lauren: but a lot of people, including james bullard are saying just front load.tion is too big of a problem and it is right in front of us, 8.5% inflation. just dot 75, tell the market you're doing the 75 in september and take it from there. >> well, i think he's doing what he does and that is pound the table, and he can be an advocate for that. it's the chair's job to drive toward a consensus. much the same as that open plain out there, he has acted a little bit like a cowboy on the horse and try to rustle all the cattle into a pen to get them to agree on one thing. you know, i don't think they get any extra points for being early and wrong with this decision. that's why they need to wait for the data, and that's why they took forward guidance off the table at the last meeting. lauren: okay, but we do have data and it is two consecutive quarters of negative gdp, when does confirm a technical recession. you heard ester george of kansas talking to edward lawrence saying it's not my job to say if we're in a recession. in terms of recession, maybe consumers feel it,

they're shooting against jim bullard. earnings are lower for q3 and q4 and not that much lower and there's certainly no earnings recession forecasted right now. oil is definitely on the down side and the ism services numbers, tyler, new orders higher and prices are still up and increasing in a slower rate and that's an increase for a better fourth quarter. >> thank you now to the bond market tracking the action in chicago. rick >> hi, tyler many are looking at durable goods and the orders and yes, they were better tharn expected and better than the reits on durables and they weren't spectacular and when i look at the ism services sector, it's basically coming off 25-month low levels as are s&p global services and composite coming off basically the lowest levels and those two are at the lowest levels since may of 2020 so we really need to be cautious and even though all of that occurred look at a two-year note yield and they're really up solid and more solid than the ten-year which has caused the curve to flatten and inver

louis fed president bullard on squawk today. he talked about recession fears. take a listen. >> with all the job growth in the first half of the year, it's hard to say there was a recession with a flat unemployment rate at 3.6%, hard to say there's a recession the second quarter i think was more concerning, and so i'll watch that karpcarefully. now what i think will happen in the second half of the year is that we'll get positive gdp growth in the second half. i think i will have a reasonably good third quarter here. >> coming out of the powell presser last week, people said just wait, the fed speaks, going to be hawkish. whether it's bi 's bullard, let wait >> you probably have to do another 50 that's what the 2-year says. >> said 75 today >> i don't think they'll do 75 because at that point what i'm talking about will be obvious to everybody. they'll have gluts throughout system go back to walmart we have gluts in everything at the retail avenue. the number of cars being made in europe is dropping dramatically. those semiconductors are if you think b-- fungib

president bullard. frontloaded. attention to communications from certain fed presidents? do you think it moves. >> how much does the front loading bacon? the front end of the yield curve is moving, and on this point, is this a market listening to what the fed is saying, and pricing it in accurately, rather than not listening. >> the president will join us. >> i'm sorry, but people like andrew hallman or grew up with other worthies, and we have done the work and the math, and this is a level i have to go to, but on bloomberg economics, even above all in order, up to dare i say fortified. >> fed funds our focus this year on the end of the year, and they have another basis point move. you've mentioned it a few times. a lot of people would agree that this address should not be about the september meeting. an address like this one, given we will see if the first time, is an event. it has to be about more than one meeting. has to be about a bigger picture. a framework. >> what are we looking at the end goal of inflation?

jim bullard thinking it's in that range. the fed is below neutral right now in opposition to what powell said. he thinks it needs to go as high as 4%, the fed funds rate to push unemployment up even more. larry summers is arguing 5.5% or more. now there is an argument between him and chris wallace that we don't need to go that high. we've never been in this situation before and it will take a while to figure it out. kriti: always reassuring, bloomberg's michael mckee. let's push now to market reaction. the libor rate rose for the fourth straight session, now the highest since november of 2008 following the hawkish comments from the fed reserve officials. alex, thank you for joining us. you have a long history of reporting on these markets. walk us through the market reaction. how justified is this? will we see more of that bond volatility? alex: the interesting thing is that libor i don't think is a leading indicator anymore. the way the methodology has been restructured in the post manipulation years, it's using a trait to

s. completed its military, bullard, from the country up to nearly 2 decades there. that bullet immortalized by this picture behind me of the last you are a soldier, stepping on to a military transport to leave kabul airport. the very next day members and thought about entered cobble airport withdrawing u. s. troops left behind equipment and damaged oh craft. so the poly bob couldn't use them, but that didn't matter much to militant forms that have claimed a bigger prize for your country itself. the doubles had of research and investigations under bertelsmann was recently in madison for close to 3 weeks, joined me in the studio. now sandra, welcome one years. it's a thought avante garde of agronomist on and also the same month times as the u. s. withdrawal. what was the overarching mood that you felt in of by the sun when you're there? it really depends on who you ask if you are in cobble in the capital and most of the people i met there. they felt defeated and away they felt deserted, betrayed by the international community. but if you travel to the countryside, whi

louis fed chief james bullard said he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75 basis point hike in september. the san francisco fed president mary daly said raising 75 would be reasonable, but that is dependent on inflation data between now and then the comments coming from the conference in jackson hole, wyoming. let's talk about the stock picks and opportunity friday on "worldwide exchange. joining us now is degas wright of decatur capital degas, good morning. how closely are you watching or listening to the fed it seems every day we get a new comment. it seems exhausting at times to be frank >> so, brian, what we're doing is that we're listening to the fed, but we have to make strategy decisions either way it happens. a soft landing or hard landing we have to prepare our clients for a really performance to address either outcome >> yeah. if they signal they will get more aggressive on raising rates, does that mean we should back off our stock ownership because of concerns of recession? or to be honest, does a quarter basis point matter to you and your clients that

louis fed president jim bullard and leaning more toward 75 from 50. of those digest in here and a market that is unchanged on the day and s&p 500 42.75 -- 4275, inverted yield curve coming out. this is bloomberg. ♪ millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network and most recommended wireless carrier. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get $450 off any new purchase of an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. or add a line to your plan today at xfinitymobile.com mark: ukrainian grain flows pushing down global prices. more than 500,000 tons of supplies exported from the countries major report in august. that is far from a normal pace but it has given you relief to grain supplies strained by the invasion and dad whether. in the u.k., thousands of workers began a round of strikes, paralyzing rail service. only one in five paints in the count

jim bullard saying a similar thing. so it does feel like there is a consensus at least about getting there and holding rather than cutting right away, which is what the market has come to anticipate. dan, you are talking about how the data rolls in, and it feels like the data that rolled in at 10:00 a.m. eastern was overshadowed by pal's speech. inflation expectations did take down. is that all gas prices? what is your read on that? dan: it's a good question, and i have always been a little nervous about relying too much on inflation expectations as a guide to policy. you know, intuitively of course you can see how the expectations of businesses and households matter for the future course of inflation. but we don't have a very good idea of what changes expectations, and i think there is a fair amount of evidence for the proposition to which you just alluded, that at least for short-term consumer inflation expectations gas prices have a very, very big effect. and, of course, those fluctuate with much less attention, or m

louis fed president james bullard is leaning towards another 75 basis point

so it, it is a, you know what, the, what that without the scott a bullard. yep. pitch you. ah hm. i mean to, with this with you is with you. i'm with full credit. it's going to be able to reach out to feel easy. i'm going to station in the board with .

jim bullard favors frontloading with big rate hikes.inneapolis counterparts say they are committed to lowering prices and a recession could happen. mary daly saying rates will remain high for up to a year. opec-plus will raise production, 100,000 barrels a day in one of the smallest hikes in their history. a blow for president biden after visiting saudi arabia looking to help cool fuel prices in the u.s. opec members said spare production capacity is severely limited and the excess should be used to respond to major supply disruptions. u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi will meet her south korean counterpart in seoul after wrapping up her controversial taiwan visit. issues include the indo pacific security and climate change. a meeting between them is unlikely, according to a statement. she has to japan on thursday night -- she has to japan thursday night. sweden and finland approved to join nato, aimed at bolstering the military alliance after the invasion of ukraine. if it wins approval from all current nato member's, finland will join e

here is jim bullard, st. louis president. >> we still have some ways to go to get to a restrictive monetary policy. i have argued that with the hotter inflation numbers in the spring, we should get to 3.75 to 4% this year. >> san francisco fed president mary daly told reuters that if inflation keep soaring, a 75 point basis hike in september may be appropriate. 50 would be reasonable. she said this week that rate cuts in 2023 are not her modal outlook. joining us now, chief market strategist tony flyer. did the market not believe these fed officials that are coming out and trying to walk back? >> there is a little momentum that we have and people are remote more focused on that and maybe they became a little overly defensive around the low. now we are up over 14% and they are ignoring issues out there. it is interesting that jim bullard said we are not restrictive. we are at 225. he wants to go to 3.75 to 4%. i can't see how that is a great thing. >> there is that and the fact that we are starting to get a mi

because you know what the, what that without the scott a bullard to get you with a with, with, with you, i guess with you i'm with wage goes to political. chris got to boot from beach, but still he's a patient, but i to in the board with it there. what, what i need a wrong one. i just don't know if you have to say oh, it comes to an engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground ah, up to 15 years in ukraine's prison for saving humanitarian aid from russia, according to a new law by k, as designed to stop people in pro russian regions from guessing vital supply. i talked to him and make his plans. berlin sanctions against moscow, where they can all make our carry, which will bring the country to its knees all doing nothing to help you with just relying cuz it doesn't want to become a battle ground between the u. s. on china, i mean beijing's latest the military moves the in the south asia region.

follow up follow just over the annual with the shots a you know what the what that without the scott a bullard. yep. it's sheila with a with, with with you with you. i'm with school with each other still easy.

louis fed president james bullard on "power lunch" next hour, 2:00 p.m. eastern what does all this fed speak mean for investors could powell say anything that might give this market the all clear to get a rally going again? my next guest isn't so sure. says stick with the bs, borrowing and blue chip. victoria greene, cio at g-squared private wealth victoria, the market seems to want the all clear whether it's explicitly given to them or not. might that reverse this time when we hear from powell tomorrow or are people looking to jump the gun? >> i think people already jumped the gun. i think we already think there is this all clear. if you listened to the fed speak and even today with george and harper that our job is not done yet. we might be above 4% for a while. they keep saying, market, we're still hawkish. when there's a dislocation between expectations and what the fed does expectations seem to think they're going to roll over early 2023 maybe we have another 100 basis points and i think powell has to reset those. that's the most dangerous market for

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he has a new self with shania, bullard shall say when the bus mantell and he goes winnable and then there's the blue cemetery. no one is more than usually off, but in order then isn't that when you miss my own little boy in your social or your juliet the gospel this could shoot for the while. you have to look up a law in nashville fordable net, the new. yes. if one model one that then is that big deal, so a total and i show that does that look and you can order you a sort honestly, who is sure. does that vision i'm calling in to your patrol? is roberson in there, or shall wish line you have you see the word was yes, but a silly question. what your book post out again? yeah. you'll get a hold of bells, skin lose access about their friends to sort of the 2nd hope of this. so yes, lose. yeah. prostate physical. what else? i'd like somebody. sicily though he has a lot of cream. they as a wisdom, let adults holloway. it took a house for that still cleaner. there was no mean lation allusions, as they said, was malaysian, those name is the order that they i miss you was lawyer with just bringing w

and beyond, got the special dna lab was set up and done yet, which will soon, astorga microtubule bullard also talk momentum l m e a little bit is still cynical rep agreement about machine and the look, they will buy it. sure. is us. it's on the we put the do to throw in cbo to dakota . mean sir. ah ah, nina, these children know all to well what war is, what they've never known as peace. so yeah, special up there. i yeah, when it was a yang, you're welcome bye. near them. any man. oh yeah. now was it also a jag address doin or any of those? they have to created a new ram seen. others got the country had sent him what? please move by. yeah. i hope a honey can get a lawyer. am on bushland annual arm, you push it here? i choose to brainers carries are quite choice in that extra crown. that's it that ah, but these children will never sing paint. oh, dream again. ah, the farm, if you keep trim, get your mortgage. ah, did you talk to you about our computer when the guy you night that just will not so many seats? gimme about your name. yeah. she bought a dog. he lived armada only. so we assume w

i couldn't say that all of them are from bullard, somewhat somewhat below. but it and all the while the heated taliban stood and watched me in meters from american troops at the air field. after 2 decades of insurgency, they had won with kalashnikov rifles and how may bombs, they had befitted the world's greatest superpower. while there's, there's a lot of gun fire these gun fire isn't. it isn't violent there. it valued, there are no clashes. and the capitol, the taliban, i celebrating it is everywhere. trace around. you may see them behind me flying into the air, into the air in their thousands. we saw it all happen. we sure the afghan government fall apart. hoover, nice. yes, gun, the army armed to the teeth by american taxpayers crumbled in just weeks. galveston was a lie. everything that american citizens had been led to believe about the war by the government and the media was all but fiction. total victory over the taliban to taliban flat, the end of the taliban. taliban leadership on the run. and now the question is, how do you handle that success? ah

he had will, many warms from bartow, i couldn't say that all of them are from bullard, somewhat somewhat below. but it and all the while the hated taliban stood and watch me in meters, from american troops at the air field. after 2 decades of insurgency, they had won with kalashnikov rifles and home made bombs. they had defeated the world's greatest superpower. well there's, there's a lot of gun fly these gun fire isn't. it isn't voluntary value, there are no clashes and the capital, the taliban. i celebrating it is everywhere. tracer rounds. you may see them behind me flying into their, into the air in their thousands. we saw it all happen. we saw the afghan government fall apart through most of a nice. yep. gun army armed to the teeth by american taxpayers crumbled in just weeks. galveston was alive, everything that american citizens had been led to believe about the war by the government and the media was all but fiction. total victory over the taliban to taliban fled the end of the taliban. taliban leadership on the run. and now the question is, how do you handle that success? ah, wi

if you look at some of the flow that we have had from bullard, don't get too excited. tesla host their annual meeting and elon musk will manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we are ahead of alibaba's earnings. they have sold about a third of their stake -- softbank has sold about a third of their stake of alibaba. >> that is a concern in some of the tech valuations in financial stability. there are reports that we have seen sale of derivatives raising $22 billion in cash which will help softbank's balance issue. analysts say it is more of an approach, then having a shot reaction -- a shock reaction. let's split the board. we are expecting to see a quarterly decline. we have had regulatory crackdown, u.s.-cina -- u.s.-china relations weighing heavily. they still see the stock as a by and undervalued. manus: certainly, goldman-s are shifting their view as well. you have alibaba boosting broader equity, you look at imagery from cctv about military exercises over taiwan. it does not look as if we are de-escalating. >> we are not. you're continuing to seek weakness co

boy bullard, from there to 19 and now to russia, induced russia awfully to induce food shortages are good to close it up. this is universal level. what is going is bang, and i think they ought to take it back was does a lot of have coming? african women magazines, new some have ward back is good, some help. and the anguish time to support them. but the children greek, up in the face of the sun, fast away, suggested at the curfew is a good idea to let passions on both sides. calm down can do you agree with that? oh, this literally does have to have clue flush no, to support the go violence on. so you, you have to have to prevent more wires. the law goes off to the farmers about launch. but mother, we've got a curfew in place. we know that it's very difficult to get in touch with people from the outside inside sierra leone that has been communication blackouts. the internet's been cut as a bit of a vac. came happening right now. isn't the, do we expect the government to come for the expense of the government to address the nation? do we need to hear from the president right now? absolu

the country of god cannot fail, won't bullard a girl uncertainty? but independence did an occasion for every one to come together. the chancellor who dennis director of the center for regional and global connectivity at the think tank tablet, he says that 75 years off to petition formulations between india and pakistan will be difficult. and while there is plenty of reason to celebrate and you know, people should be on the streets cheering and jubilant. i think for me personally, this is also very much a time for introspection, for august on, especially for the ruling political and military leap. and sort of asked ourselves why is that after 75 years boxed on still remains very squarely mired and multi faceted economic, political, social, existential crises. so we've almost always for the 75 years of our history, you have have this almost always hostile neighbor and a lot of domestic policies also centered around countering mitigating and working against india and a lot of different ways to be perfectly blunt. if we were to sort of strip all of this

it's different what we heard from jim bullard from -- trying to strike notes of what could happen as they continue to plow ahead with the hikes. the ibex opening down .4%. the ftse 100, and what's happening in china. aluminum and iron ore, both against the sovereign bond. a lot of focus today will be on the pound. also the pound versus the dollar, which is currently at one 19 point 02. -- 1.1902. this is what the asset check looks like. we need to talk about treasuries, dollar, part of the dollar move is thanks to the interview with you had with the indonesian president, where he said he is expecting both president xi jinping and vladimir putin to arrive. euro-dollar, 1.0075. let's get over to the bloomberg managing editor. you're looking at the u.k., is it ok? mark: it is not ok. i don't want to give you bad news on the friday, it's still a weekend. you mentioned the plant, i'm looking at how cable sterling is versus the gap between two-year u.k. rates and two-year u.s. rates. u.k. rates have been raising rapidly. u.k. rates really rising quickly amid inflation data. that surge in u

. >> jim bullard now a hawk urging the five point basis by -- basis hike. he says why drive it into the next year, get it done now. he was saying frontloaded the hard go fast and you can pause and see things -- where things are standing. esther george of kansas city given remarks today said that the case for a rate hike remains strong. she said my colleagues and i are going to continue to debate the size. she said it on the first 75 basis point hike. she said we have rates up and we are doing it fast. mary daly told us what she told us a week ago speaking as well. 50 or 75. her baseline is 50 but she is open to 75. let's talk about the economic numbers that sherry just mentioned. jobless claims 250,000 in the latest week. they have been stuck at a healthy level supporting the fed's view that the labor market is still strong. home sales are down 5.9% existing home sales hit the lowest since 2020. this is where the fed is keeping a close eye because organs rates of shot up. people have pulled out of contract closing. this was already hitting the economy and i

based to begin to know that inflation is coming off its highs >> so we'll get harker at 10:00 and bullard at 2:00, but this revised gdp, the price index at 8.9, prior 8.7, has raised eyebrows >> it's not happening. one of the things mark and i talked about after the interview was how you still can't -- there's so many places -- now the hours are much shorter you'll have a drugstore chain where the hours are much shorter. can't find workers the overwhelming theme is you can't find workers, which of course then means you have to pay whoever you have more money for them to stay this is what i call the dutch bros problem that's where you get the annihilator, david >> i've never been to one, but you continue to talk about it so i feel like i know >> it's the next starbucks >> okay. >> i apologize to howard schulz. it has the potential to be the next starbucks if it executes. they were the first person to talk about the job problem, that you have great barista and immediately they go get a higher price. if you go -- our walgreens here, my litmus, the ones i waited five minutes to get a gillette

kathleen: jim bullard from st. the wall street journal, saying that we should just go ahead, do the bigger rate hike. 75 basis points. frontload, go fast and do bigger rate hikes, make an impact, then sit back and look at what is going on. he said, let's get it done now. esther george, reserve bank of kansas city, says, the case for rate hikes remains strong, for sure, but i will still be debating with my colleagues on the speed of the headaches. in other words, how quickly do you get to the neutral rate, the restrictive level that the fed wants? mary daly repeated what she said last week, her baseline is 50 basis points, she will be watching the data for 75. she would like to raise it and then redundancy what is happening, that strategy. to that extent, it is clear what their intentions are. it is still the case, though, that they are feeling their way along and he will do what they have to do. but nothing is set in stone yet, because they are watching the numbers. haidi: our colleague mark cranfield was saying hi

jim bullard also making the point he sees a possibility for a soft landing. he doesn't see a recession for the u.s. economy. so there's been that since the last fed meeting when they said there could be some rate hikes. i think these four officials are making it clear that inflation remains a clear and present danger for them. manus: it certainly does. thank you very much. our chief asian correspondent. stocks in asia, trying to understand what nancy pelosi's visit did, aren't they? then add in p.m.i. coming in better on the services side. balance the act for me. how are you? >> a lot more sanguine today. a lot of anxiety we had yesterday taken out of the markets. they are lifting the offshore yuan. for taiwan, down for a third. that's lifting the hang seng tech index. and we're looking ahead to ali ba ba as well. and the big e.v. batterymaker could be delaying its north america plant plans on pelosi's visit. they say it wouldn't affect the stock but we're seeing shares down about 2% today. let's look at my chart as well. there's an interesting call, the unce

jim bullard says he favors big rate hikes.y are committed to lowering prices and a recession could happen. mary daly thinks rates will remain high for up to a year. nancy pelosi will meet her counter part insole after wrapping up her controversial taiwan visit. it is on the agenda include into pacific security and climate dependence. -- climate change. opec plus will raise production in september and one of the smallest hikes in history. it is a blow for president joe biden after visiting saudi arabia in july, trying to help cool fuel prices in the united states. their production capacity is limited. india plans to work with cleaner fuels. the roads third bennett -- their biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is pushing to hit net zero by 2030. the government is seeking a mandate for the use of some fossil fuels. a group of professional golfers including phil mickelson are suing the pga tour, calling it and -- an illegal monopoly. the players say the suspensions are part of the pga's plan to course rebel tours. global news, 24 h

the market was not pricing from the jim bullard 3.75 to 4%. now we basically are. two-year yields are at risk of continuing to move significantly higher maybe towards 4% comfortably as the fed winds up hiking into 2023. and the big result of that, deeper inversion of the yield curve and we have seen so far. alix: vincent, what surprised you about jackson hole? something surprise the markets of the margin perhaps. is it the extent of the interest rate hikes still become, or is it more about the duration, the time we will spend at the higher interest rates? that conversation about hiking and holding. is that what surprised the markets? >> a little of both, but when you mentioned about hiking holding part, a lot of people are pricing in potential cuts in the fed funds rate into 2023. the fed is going to drive us into some sort of recession and are going to be forced to reverse this policy that they have now. we know they are going to go in september. but i will bring something up -- i'm a very big critic of the fed at this point. this will be the 97th change of the fe

louis fed president james bullard telling the wall street journal he is leaning towards supporting aincrease of 75 basis points in september, more cautious, p kansas city fed chair esther george saying the pace and ultimate level of future rate hikes remains a matter of he debate and we look ahead to the jackson hole symposium in wyoming next week. how do you see it all? >> well, i think the fed has done a great job as we said earlier in the job, jaw boning the markets and they really did get the markets to do the heavy lifting on the tightening side. i think that's one of the reasons why markets think they're bluffing. inflation is starting to roll over which is not to say it's going away. our friends at alpine macro do a really good job of looking at supply driven inflation versus demand driven inflation. dedemand driven inflation has moderated and the good side is almost zero. but you still have sticky cpi which is measured by the atlanta fed at 5.4%, flexible came down 11.3% in july but it's still 16.3% so there's a lot of work yet to be done and that's why i think you continue t

and then there is what jim bullard said here in new york city today. >> yes.ust how specific on what is needed in that inflation fight. there are members out there. >> i think i just summed it up for you. i think it is interesting that at one time, evans and nestor were both considered done and here they are, the hawkishness has really coalesced because i think the job is so clear. you don't have to think too hard about what you have to do. jim was speaking today and he said he thinks they are going to actually have to get restrictive. but he too said we will start watching the data more and maybe inflation surprised me. it was worse than i thought in the second quarter. he may have to do a little bit more but he is also in the cap that maybe we will slow down. he is also insisting there won't be a recession. there is a very academic presentation about the fed having more credibility than they did when paul volcker stepped in and having to pull off that red hot inflation and because they have adequate ability. he still thinks that they can pull off a soft land

the speech, don't miss interviews today and tomorrow with esther george and patrick hawk and jim bullard more live from jackson hole, wyoming. >>> still to come on "worldwide exchange." peloton is set to report results. we will dive into the deal is a first step to better days for the fitness company. >>> we will also have other stories coming up as we head to break. we touch on the trending stories. gamestop apparently boosting compensation for some employees in store the retailer will give workers a pay raise in company stock to motivate and retain employees. >>> warner bros. discovery hitting pause on a number of films. "aquaman" and "shazam" is cutting back as they look to save money. >>> and pink floyd catalog is not close to striking a deal with blackstone. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new tra

you remember we had daly we had bullard and other officials, as well and kashkari, as well, saying thisof raising rates and then cutting them quickly is probably not the best forecast, but the equity market is doing its own thing here, mester, and the idea of a cause and you hang there for a bit is not necessarily what is priced into the the markets, jon. >> is this set up for a different kind of meeting in late august then and how the fed might be challenged to message >> right so i assume the meeting you're talking about is the one in jackson hole which i think setting up is a really interesting meeting. i think the fed will want to think a lot about its course ahead, and the meeting comes in september where me ster would not chime in on the 50 or 75 if you give me a second, i believe it was priced at a 50 most recently. it's a 50%, 60% for a 50 and 42% for a 75 there's a bit of a debate in the market over that right now, jon. look, the main thing about this september meeting is there are two jobs reports, one of which comes tomorrow and mester and everyone will be watching that close

. >> thanks very much, tyler >> cnbc is the huge lineup of guests today including james bullard on thisgram tomorrow at 2:00. he is a real interesting cat on that fed board fed chair powell friday morning. that is his speech at 10:00 eastern time you'll be there. you will see steve liesman and elk -- there are elk there, seema, as well >> the mecca it is not just the u.s. markets that will be watching jackson hole closely any potential pivot from the fed share could have an impact on emerging markets let's bring in the chairman of rockefeller international and founder of breakout capital. you say what fed officials say over the next 48 hours could be critical to emerging markets specifically china tell us what you're seeing. >> hi, seema i think if you look at emerging markets there are 150 developing countries out there. so i think the fed's decision has a different impact on different markets and clearly the most vulnerable to me is china. we've spoken so much about inflation and how inflation is rising everywhere, but one country that is still suffering from possible deflation is chi

i will say this, following jim bullard has been an interesting exercise and he says things that are extremend they end up being the center of the committee and people scoffed at the idea of 75 basis points when he said it and they've done it twice now. what do you think the center of gravity is and where do you think it's going >> yeah. i think the doves -- the hawk, sorry, still carry the day i did say we expect 50 in september, but that doesn't mean we expect a lower domino rate. if anything, the risk of potential spending data are that the dominant rate goes higher because the chain for reasoning here is lower inflation on the one hand means less urgency to hike in the near-term and on the other hand it means consumer spending and the broader economy holds off a little bit better that means there's less conflict between the fed's two mandates and so they can keep hiking and the potential that we could see a domino rate of 4% and maybe higher >> i'll get back to you in a second, but aditya, i would like you to explain the thesis. are base cases for a recession to start in the coming month