see whether he thinks there is a twinkle of a fitbit in bullard -- pivot in bullard. >> maybe a can't have one. they are saying if they do frontloading now, then they get to a point where inflation comes off. they could get to a point where they slow the pace of rate hikes makes year and they can watch and see what is happening with data. neel kashkari with similar remarks overnight making the point that when inflation comes off of oil they can see where they are then. that's not the here and now, but here in the now message from bullard and others is they still have work to do. you hear mr. bullard talking about still frontloading rate hikes into the end of the year, the market is locked on for 75 for november. mr. bullard is talking about a 2023 story. he did say some signs of pain are seen in the housing market, not suffering variable lag, that is real-time impact from rising rates. it is other parts that are less clear how interest rates will hit them. companies are telling the fed there are seeing signs of softening their labor hiring tensions, customers don't want to take higher

shery: jim bullard there.ur next guest says globally synchronized monetary tightening will result in an unwind of business models. they were created over the past few years of easy money. that's bring in the chief market strategist. good to have you with us, ellen. are you talking about businesses that rely heavily on low-cost debt? and where do you see the problems emerging? ellen: that's exactly right. we have had global interest rate suppression for the last decade and a half ever since the great financial crisis and now, we are seeing globally synchronized central-bank rate increases and the financial repression that led to unusually low interest rates, even negative real rates for part of this year in some countries, men a lot of business models were built that rely on very cheap debt. you see it in all sorts of unexpected places. the first place we have seen it has been in a lot of the private equity leveraged buyouts. and you see the banks made commitments to the private equity companies that they would

tom: a bit of a dovish flavor to that interview with jim bullard suggesting there is a because i am 2023. markets expecting another jumbo-early november the first or second. 75 basis points is the expectation but james bullard saying maybe 2023 is where they recalibrate. the markets in europe looking at potentially a second straight day of losses, spanish ibex down .2%, ftse down .1%. losses stateside between .6% to .8% on the s&p versus nasdaq, closing in the red again. tesla had disappointment but it is concerns about growth trajectory and just how far central banks have to go that weighs on markets. the spanish ibex is flat. let's see how things are shaping up with futures stateside and the pound given the political chaos in the u.k. futures stateside for the losses of .2%, the pound at 1.12, gain of .1%. we will break down the story around political chaos and whether it is and make within the body politic of the u.k. the 10 year stateside a move higher of two basis points. iron ore, 2.28% lower, it is on its longest rout since 2021, demand and the property sector rou is playing into

louis fed president jim bullard speaking exclusively to bloomberg's kathleen hays.ed let's bring in chief asia economic correspondent enda curran. we also heard from chicago's charles evans talking about needing fed policy to be at a restrictive level in order for inflationary pressures to not broaden out. is there anything new that stands out in all of this fed speech now? enda: there are comments alluding to the idea that it will come off the boil. you heard mr. buller talk about it being the year of disinflation, markets are price for a big inflation slowdown. some of that is base effect. even though these officials are saying next year inflation will come off the boil, right now, right now their focus remains especially on core inflation. neel kashkari overnight talking about core inflation at 6.6%, 40 are high due to increases of food and energy cost, that's nowhere near he wanted to be. he was talking about, for example, even if there is a window to slow down, he wants to air on the side of doing more with interest rate hikes and less in order to ensure that i

james bullard is leaving the door open that the central bank will hike 75 basis points in the next two meetings in november and december speaking this weekend on the sidelines of the imf and world bank meetings, bullard says it is too early to make that call it doesn't matter if they make the call later this year or early next year. bullard is a fan of front loading and then officials can pause and assess the situation let's talk about the outlook and what it means with kevin caron at washington crossing advisers. kevin, your take on what bullard had to say >> i think he is right there is a difference now versus the beginning of the year. the markets have already moved we were looking at markets that are pricing in 5.25% short rates. this is a very different set up than the beginning of the year where the market was essentially dead asleep. not privcing in any hikes. and inflation in the spring. the fed got on the program and in terms of looking to aggressively go after inflation. the good news in all of this is the market seems to believe the fed is serious and they are going to deliv

if you the market needed to hear this but bullard and daly are expressing views we tend to agree with. we think this comes to an end at the end of the year. we can easily see another cycle start later next year. >> tom, our very own anna wong in bloomberg was quite puncturing -- quite contrary and when she said 5% would be the policy rate in july. his 5% still going to be the peak? that still seems to be the consensus but could that change in the next week or month? >> it could change fast. we are right now 4.75 on funds as terminal. i have been saying to people that if we are wrong, the bigger risk to us being wrong is not that we are wrong by a hike or two. it is that we are wrong by several hikes. i think that is probably -- at least up until daily -- daly, and bullard, i think that have been a fairly reasonable risk given all the commentary we heard from the fed but as we have been saying, we think that for the most part, fed officials were trying to get on the same page as this relates to the narrative. the reality is economic activity is slowing down and the clip you played lead

bullard leaving the door open to the possibility the fed may raise interest rates i 75 basis points at each of the next two meetings. we focus on further fed action. that is next on bloomberg. ♪ >> whether the committee would want to pull some proposed or thought of policy rate increases from 2023 into the december meeting, i think that is a judgment that is premature to make. dani: the st. louis fed president on the possibility of a larger hike in december. we have that data out on friday, continuing to show gains in inflation expectations. manus: well, let's take some of those risks to our guest. the global head of private capital advisory at raymond james. great to have you with us. a lot to chew over the u.k. at a breaking point and the fed -- we know bullard is a front loader, and the question is, my last guest said the fed are bullying, they are overdoing it, pushing too hard, and the narrative around 75 basis points at both of the next meetings is just too much, it will break something. do you think they will do 75 bips in both and what is the risk of something breaking? >> i th

rishaad: we will be looking to comments from james bullard.s is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: that's tokyo as we head off for the lunch break there. nothing really at the moment apart from the usual which is affecting what's going on as far as straw -- stock trading. sony contributing to the most to the topics index decline we have. 380 stocks on their way up. that's the position we are in. yvonne: 150. we are so close. the boj also announced unscheduled bond buying here. 10 jgb breaching above that once again. a lot going on there. rishaad: if you are long, you are wrong. let's get your first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. bonnie: president biden says u.s. oil producers should not be returning record profits to shareholders via higher share buybacks. they are stepping up criticism of the energy industry. the war wages on in ukraine. the president called for oil companies to use profits to boost production and help bring down fuel prices for consumers. >> we need to responsibly increase american oil production without delaying or deferring o

the person i follow is james bullard because he was the only person on the fed that well over a year ago was saying look, inflation is going to be a problem. we need to be hiking right now. we should have an emergency hike , inter-meeting to stave this off and pretty much evidence at the fed was like oh, no it's trans transitory don't worry about it so he even is starting to say look, you know, we need to raise it pretty quickly and then stop and so he's the one if you're going to pay attention to any one member other than outside of jerome powell, obviously, he's the one you need to be paying attention to, because he's the only one who got it right during the last couple of years. so now to your point, the reason inflation is so high is because you've got 75% more job openings and you have people unemployed and so we've got some charts on that on danniles.com that investors can look at but that's the biggest gap you've ever seen the prior record was 25% and the u.s. economy is 75% services -based so wages are the main driver of inflation and that's just going to remain higher than w

bullard's appearance could be seen as a violation of federal rules to avoid providing advantage to anyket participants. adidas issued a profit warning as good pileup in china and western markets. the german sportswear maker expects an operating margin of 4%, down from 7%. the ceo has announced he will step down next year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. dani: jules, thank you so much. we are going to take another look at the runners and riders in the race to follow liz truss as prime minister. could boris johnson be making a comeback? we will also dive back into the european earnings story. this is bloomberg. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a ch

we heard from jim bullard, mary daly is how there needs to be debate about how much higher rates have to go and even considering is slowing down of the pace of rate hikes at some point although committing to the next rate hike. we are looking at treasury yields falling, needing to a surge in stock prices in the friday session. 10 year yield falling toward up 4.20 level. oil eking out a weekly gain. we still have concerns about global demand for oil prices in the asian session, still above $85 per barrel level. we are paying close attention to u.k. assets, the pound celebrating gains against the u.s. dollar after boris johnson pulled out of the race. really leaving exchange of a rishi sunak on the brink of becoming prime minister this as we have the ftse 250 slumping given the uncertainty about the race, a little more certainty and relieve when it comes to the u.k. bond space. 30 year guilt -- gilt surging weekly by a record this after the resignation of prime minister liz truss. watch the latest developments in the u.k. haidi: we are seeing perhaps signs of uncertainty when it comes t

jim bullard echoing these comments on friday and he's saying something he has been saying for a while -- the next two meetings, there will be a big bait about a rate that pressures and -- pressures inflation. he's been talking about getting to 4.5% by the middle of the year and then taking a look. i think the question is how does the economy look and how does inflation look? if inflation is still stuck above 8%, it will be interesting to see what they would decide. more restrictive, looking down the road, that is the message. haidi: let's get you to paul allen with our first word headlines. paul: giorgia meloni has been sworn in as italy's new premise or, becoming the country's first female premise or and hitting the most right-wing government since world war ii. she must steer the economy and its debt through a crisis surmounted by slowing, growth. she will address both houses of competence -- oath houses for a confidence vote. jim chanos is preparing to deliver the first budget update. economists predict the fiscal blueprint will show and underlying cash deficit of 22 billion u.s. d

speaking right now highlights after the break >>> we with will tell you aboute comments from jim bullard about the pace of interest rates you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing ihg one rewards. seventeen hotel brands. six thousand global destinations. one loyalty program that lets you guest how you guest. at cdw, we get that your world is always changing and you need to adapt to support your digital transformation. we can help you achieve your business goals by streamlining your data across cloud environments with netapp cloud services orchestrated by cdw. with greater accessibility and control, you'll be able to accelerate innovation, bring the flexibility of the cloud to your environment, and reduce your infrastructure footprint to contain costs so you can be prepared for whatever is headed your way. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. fsd pharma is developing new treatments for neuro and inflammatory disorders. in a breakthrough discovery, fsd p

bullard has talked about frontloading, regime change and the rest.here rates have gone and you have to look back and say, what did bullard get wrong and the answer is, not much. lisa: he has been on top of this which means the frontloading is getting some traction. 18 days, 16 hours and 27 seconds until election day in the u.s.. we have not talked enough about it. we have a few weeks left at a time when the polls are moving so quickly against the democrats . and then it seems to be evaporating. greg, thank you further making me take a look at this clock. how quickly are these polls moving against the democrats? greg: there's been a shift in hispanic voters to republican voters and the abortion issue is in the middle of the pack. you have to conclude that oh right side is likely in the house. tom: i am suggesting that the gentlelady from hawaii exiting the democratic party is a huge deal. forget about the libertarian angle. our moderate democrats going to exit the progressive democratic party postelection? greg: they have a huge identity crisis. you h

you get more fed speak through the week, bullard and then evans. oldman on tuesday.s a rate decision, eurozone cpi on wednesday and jobless claims on thursday. let's end with a rapidfire. it is november 75 basis point hike the last 75 of this cycle? yes or no? priya: yes. james: nope. george: yes. jonathan: next question, peak fed funds, pick a number but i will offer two options. four or five. james: five. george: four. priya: five. jonathan: does qt make it to 2023? it is a yes or no. george: it's a great question be a yes, we think it does. priya: it does but not all year because the fed will be using in 2023. james: yes, just. jonathan: thank you. what a week for us all. from new york city, for real yield, same time, same place, different person week. this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. millions have made t

you've got the journal piece, daly, now you've got bullard on the take what do you make of it >> despitet least have a two-sided debate whether they can pause after the november rate hike is that the market has been kind of stead yg itself even as the bond market was melting down i mean it was a quasi-crash in prices the s&p today is exactly at the level, in fact, slightly above where it was four weeks ago today. four weeks ago today the ten-year was at 3.7, and today it got to 4.3. the point is not that bond yields don't matter, they don't have the potential to compress equity valuations, the point is the stock market has absorbed this latest bout on it on a point to point basis we'll see if that can last if the market can hang in there for a while, i'm not sure that's super bullish but i think you call this more resilience than denial on the part of equities here >> i love the way you put it at the very top a two-sided debate because what we would in large part was a belief it was on auto pilot and it was a one-sided conversation. now you have a debate in the room about what the approp

i must have an idea in your book me, doyle, how you, alec bullard, i voted, contain observations about the real world. see, you'll speak up a little board for portals i'm able to see something other than the authorities. i should also be able to see it are largely like one up in interagency. what's happening of doing it. i don't know why they can't see. ha, a good. the reality isn't hidden. it's just covered over icon view. barrymore. thorkell, would they be like all you have to do is look under the cover and you can see the trash physical new printer copy though. yeah. intangible printed i tell your building label for shouting, freedom and other slogans to learn. come see me. well, i don't know. ah, that then 1000000 people were shocked when they saw my sign joke. yes, a socialism john no to repression, but i shall not, not submit a message before. so people say on be way there goes another comment equitable to that? are they were confused when i yell at you know, repression loss again, uncle mcvey government. supporters like socialism partially mostly but were puzzled ivy repression.

say three quarters, three quarters, and bullard has been very reasonable, then you can only imaginehat the people who are really afraid of inflation are thinking so, we had a rally and then do some selling >> okay. all right. if you say so. >> i do say so let it rally, and then do some selling. you don't have to sell today >> there's bullard, of course. >> you don't have to sell today. >> you were just referring to that >> look at that. >> being quite hawkish >> but remember, he's kind of represents the -- a consensus view >> yeah. >> and when you talk to brian moynihan's team, they think things can slow but not appreciably, but they're the best in terms of how they feel things are going to go, and as it is, jamie dimon was okay bullish. i was quite impressed with how bullish bullish charlie scharf is. moynihan is saying, it's good. the numbers are false. bank of america -- i think people are starting to realize that brian moynihan, they're going to hate this one, that brian moynihan is the smartest guy in the game. >> where >> in this game. >> really? >> the bank -- no, next lie. y

and some of the more hawkish speakers like bullard, who really led the campaign of fire rates.ding some moderation, i think that is a very positive sign for the rest of the whole pricing of the terminal rate of the fed funds. i think we have done that pricing and probably are going to go beyond that. that is encouraging for stocks. rishaad: we just got a bit of breaking news from the philippine central bank. he says if the federal reserve goes by another 75 basis points, maybe they have to match it. this is the conundrum facing all the central banks, emerging markets, which is perhaps adding a lot of pain to their economies. give us a sense of what position they find themselves in and what they do about it ultimately. guest: the emerging-market central banks are ahead of the fed and kept pace and were very hawkish. brazil, for example. however, in asia, there was a double mammy. -- double whammy. there was the covid zero policy, which held back central banks. even though we have high fed rates, and unfortunately for the bsp, the fed will probably go 75 basis points. emerging-ma

this comes after criticism of jim bullard for speaking last week at an event hosted by citigroup.uld be seen as a violation. indonesia's central bank has raised borrowing costs by 50 basis points to stop the slide of the currency. most analysts had protected the increased. the currency has slipped since the september ratemaking -- rate meeting. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: sources are telling us that the biden administration is exploring the possibility of new export controls that would limit china's access to emerging computing technologies. our reporter has the story. we saw sweeping action from beijing about semiconductors. what would this action be? >> we are hearing there is an effort to find and explore and find ways to limit china's access to quantum computing as well as artificial intelligence technology and software. this is really, regulators looking to stay ahead of the curve in terms of what is china or an adversary tryi

the statement comes after criticism of president jen bullard for speaking last week at a private event citigroup. the appearance could be seen as a violation of federal on communications that aim to avoid providing a profit-making firm with any advantage. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: coming up, we discuss human rights in iran after weeks of protest over the death of a young woman in police custody. atlantic council joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: protests have continued in iran over the death of a woman in the custody of the so-called morality police. 22-year-old mahsa amini was arrested last month for allegedly breaking islamic dress code. this prompted iranian women to risk the same face -- fate i removing headscarves in public, including most recently export climate competing in korea. they were welcomed at toronto airport as a hero. how much has this challenge the power of iran's rulers? let's bring in the director of th

louis fed says that they will think differently in the future after criticism of james bullard came afteraking at a private event for citigroup. his appearance could be seen as a violation of fed rules to avoid dividing any advantage to market participants. sources say that the u.s. are looking into export controls to limit china's access to emerging technologies. this is focused on the still developing field of artificial intelligence software. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom, francine? francine: thank you so much. coming up, we will have a full round of inflation and we will be eking with the l'oreal chief executive officer. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 30 minutes into european trading day. we start at westminster. liz truss -- tom, you take over. tom: liz truss resigned. we have a few connections that bring technical issues to live tv. rishi sunak leads the pack but some mp's call for the return of former leader boris johnson. european stocks fa

doing -- even while they were really starting to do jumbo 50 and 75 hikes, that they thought jim bullard, who is a hawk, st. louis fed president, that by the end of the year, by the time they got to 4%, now they are saying 4.5 percent, that they would have to pause and look around and see what the impacts are. what is interesting about the cpi is neither it nor the ppi, which is a secondary number -- does is not nearly as important as the cpi because cpi includes retail. ppi is wholesale. but they are the key measure for the fed. none of them have come down that much. the fed wants sustainable moves that will convince them that they have finally done enough to get inflation not just slowing down but going down. i think this whole question of sticky inflation is still there. maybe the hardest part for the fed is going to be once they have stopped hiking because things look like they are coming down, but it does not come down enough. tomorrow, cpi year-over-year, 8.1%, not enough. if you just kind of average it, you are still in the same place. 6.5%, that is an increase from 6.3%. that is

jim bullard said, they are not worried about financial stability right now.y are watching for any signs of liquidity. with the scent mean for investors potentially if we do go on a bumpy ride -- what does that mean for investors potentially if we do go on a bumpy ride? >> they are going to look for something that risks the system. they will have a pivot in place. but the problem is, given the transitory negative in the questions around credibility, which i'm not really in that camp, have a lot of compassion for we are jay powell to sitting with the tools he is restricted with at the moment, but the problem is, all of these rate hikes have a lagging effect. we don't actually know where that threshold of liquidity is. you can take the money and the future liquidity out of the system. it is much harder to remove debt from the system. so you still have that liquidity threshold to service at record amount of debt that came from the covid fiscal monetary policy. that's the thing. the controlled burn approaches like, we've done all this tightening -- is like, we've

the fed is considering rules on officials and private events after jim bullard was criticized for speakingt a private event hosted by citigroup. it could be seen as a violation on rules that avoid providing a profit-making firm with any advantage. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: coming up on "bloomberg markets: asia," traders expecting weaker renminbi after the party congress this weekend. rishaad: also having a look at the politburo standing committee by monday -- by sunday at what that could mean for president xi 's likely third term. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: china's 20th party congress wraps up this weekend in beijing with a big mystery revealed -- who will president xi jinping place in key roles? for at least five years? rishaad: we are joined by chief north asia correspondent stephen engle. stephen: we can kind of predict how it is going to go because xi jinping has amassed what some would say is absolute power. he changed the constitution fiv

coming, james bullard at 3:30 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg.u up-to-date with news from around the world, here is the first word. the european union is set to propose sanctioning three generals for providing -- iranian generals for providing moscow with drones. it is responsible for the iranian drones supply to russia. 6 million people who fled their homes in ukraine have since come back, according to an estimate for the organization for migration. the refugee organization says they make up 7.65 ukrainians who registered as refugees across europe. more than 1.5 million people have been drawn back as it began to feel safe after the russian attacks earlier this month. workers at a tou thao energy refinery in france have ended there strike. the latest sign that it is beginning to ease. it came following government intervention and the resolution of other labor disputes. workers want higher pay in the face of soaring inflation. global news, 24 hours a day on-air on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than

on bloomberg, my colleague kathleen hays speaking exclusively with saint louis fed president jim bullardweekend. he left open the possibility that the federal reserve would raise interest rates by 75 basis points. not at the next meeting, but at the next two meetings. that interview is a must watch. be sure to tune in for that coming up on this show. tesla is set to report earnings after the bell. we're going to dive into what to expect that converse station. coming up next, when our resident expert ed ludlow joins us shortly. this is bloomberg. my first options trade. well, let's just say i did my homework. i love the courses, enjoyed the videos, studied all the strategies. but i still wanted someone to walk me through it. so i called up to ameritrade. that's when i met eva. she's an option specialist to talk me through the process and help me learn all the tools as i made my very first option straight. eva, thank you. feel confident making your first options. trade with a passionate trader community, personalized education, and devoted trade desk support. td ameritrade. we're smart. in

eugene bullard will be the first african-american to fly combat if missions for the french during world war i, and he is the only one. >> thank you. >> ladies and gentlemen, if you can join me one more time in thinking

tom: bullard of st.h kathleen hays and i'm looking forward to that interview this afternoon. that's a very important discussion as we have a regime change at this moment. green on the screen and the markets. there is volatility out there with the vix elevated at the 31 level. new highs in the 10 year yield and the two year yield has some flatness right now. the headline for me is the real yield, one point 65%, breaking through the 161 level in the averages about 2.05. lisa: it's about three weeks on the till the selection and it's about inflation and the economy and that's it stop you're getting almost sorts of things so we want to get a sense of what this will look like. we have the editor-in-chief of gallup. what are you looking at in terms of turnout for the election where we have seen the odds shift dramatically over the past few weeks. >> the number one issue voters have in mind when they vote is the economy. we also see this in error data. they mention the economy or reference inflation as the numb

. >> i take comfort from what james bullard said on saturday or sunday.s been thought leadership within the fed >> so, josh, you want to weigh in on this by the way, he says other than twitter which they did purchase in the third quarter, you know, betting that musk was going to have to eventually pay full price, that was a great bet by them we expect one way or another the deal will closeout at the orig originally agreed upon price they believe we're still in that bear market. >> i think the most interesting thing about the letter is that, you know, what they're really doing is doubling down on their belief that they're going to be mispricings and that, you know, a lot of the return is going to come from the type of market environment that you're in so calling it a bear market is important. i know earlier this year there was a lot of debate about the nomenclature why does it matter if it's up -- if it's off 20%. it does matter because as you can see from the success green light has had this year, that dictates the way you treat, for example, dips in the

james bullard, terrific guy said we may need two more 75 basis point rate hikes by the end of the year and i regard them as the most level headed. that would put us at 5%. at those levels there will be more defaults and dellin kwint. they ran out of take overs for targets. they got too big the group had the potential to be the leader again but the banks couldn't pull it off because the fed kept rates so low, it was hard to make money now that's over unless we go into a severe recession, the banks could mean tanaintain fore these are big changes for the market to adjust to. we went from all rallies are one one-day wonders. it is 0 to 60 too fast it's a mistake to change the stripes that fast. bottom line, though, for the charitable trust we continue to do a little selling. we're not buying into everything here so we'll have enough cash to put to work in the next downturn but how can you not respect the possibility wilson is right an the rally might be more than a one-day wonder given how great he has been in the downturn. john in tennessee, john? >> caller: professor cramer, boo-yah. >>

but you've got to kind of agree to steve's point, she sounds relatively dovish to say, compared to bullard at st. louis or others, cash kashkari in minneapolis, right >> i think the fed is having a very difficult exercise ahead of itself it has to communicate its ongoing intent to maintain a very tight monetary policy stance but it wants to distinguish the pace at which it's tightening from the level of rates. and that's a very delicate calibrating exercise if you bring us back to the minutes, the fmoc minutes, you saw in the minutes that there was a lot of conversation around this idea of risk balancing. mitigating the risk of overshooting on the rates front versus the risk of underdoing it in terms of bringing down inflation. i think the balance of risk is gradual ly balancing itself out, and the fed is increasingly intent on considering tapering the pace of rate hikes as it goes into 2023, in an environment where this global policy tightening cycle has brought about a significant slowdown in global activity. >> so this construct then that we're dealing with now is one where the markets

chris wallace, leading hawk along with jim bullard, his former colleague at the st.progress on inflation yet, have to keep raising rates. it is clearly a fed that seems to be speaking with one voice. maybe it is like a flock of birds flying south for the winter. jay powell is at the front that they are all playing in unison, because it is one message after the other come at the same thing. chris wallace was us about the economy. he said the soft landing is still possible, but the landing strip is shrinking. haidi: also depends on what happens with the labor market. a lot of the support to -- a lot of the supportive data we have had point two softening conditions, but still historically pretty strong. what would we need to see from payroll numbers to suggest that this might be the peak for the labor market? kathleen: in terms of payroll date, it is very possible we have seen that because the size of the hikes is still looking pretty good. we get that report less than 24 hours from now. payrolls are expected to be 250 5000. there were 355 -- there were 315,000 that the

it's in keeping -- if you're with the fed, you should be saying, you know what's going our way like bullardit's going our way, we got to keep it going, but it's going our way carl, as far as i'm concerned, anything on track positive >> the opening bell. cnbc's realtime exchange at the big board, emerald holding celebrating advertising week here in new york. at the nasdaq, an ipo, prime medicine, a biotech focused on genetic therapies. everything you're saying, jim, kashkari acknowledging the pain in housing, does that give credence to gundlach's tweet >> i thought that was -- he made a lot of cogent points it's just that we can't get food down i've been getting in touch with -- i usually don't talk to my manager, but there is this kind of growing belief that if somehow russia and ukraine could come to a detente, which means play for a tie, then we would begin and china would be able to reverse engineer an mrna or pfizer, then your going to come down on the wrong side of growth i come back and i say, it's already deteriorating so quickly in europe, and if it weren't for our lng being shipped

really went after jim bullard. jonathan: you went after me, i heard. tom: i did not. a lot people wrote in and said, that product burned my hair off. jonathan: that is what happened in new york. it is the price action on the s&p, futures positive a third of 1%. we often start monday morning by saying big week ahead. tom: big week ahead, but there are distractions today. we will look at the united kingdom in the 9:00 hour. there is china we covered that. i thought peter trubowitz was great. it is about the markets and with the markets are saying and the vigilantes are out there across equities bonds. jonathan: i will be exhausted by this u.k. story. i sat down with my producer this morning and said, do we have to cover this? partly we do. tom: i will -- apparently we do. tom: i want to save it for later. yet intervention failure and a set up amid the silence of the fed which will be interesting. jonathan: let's talk about futures, elevated by 4/10. shut -- shout out to morgan stanley quit making this short-term tactical bullish call last week and having this big move t

we have her jim bullard talking about raising rates to -- at the end of the year. is the goal to raise it to that level and try to get ahead of it? i think that will matter in terms of the risk appetite, what people see going forward for the fed and rates? jonathan: let's talk about the rate market, we can talk about qt, let's talk about sterling, we can do that with kit juckes. on a report qt gets delayed, sterling climbs to session highs. on the pushback from the bank of england sterling falls to session low. in i to believe qt is somehow sterling negative and delaying qt is somehow sterling positive. what you make of that? kit: the price action tells you you have two conflicting messages, one coming up the start of it all. everyone is looking at the k and saying please can you get the messaging right? we are all confused. what we need for the currency is for the volatility to go away, for everything to calm down and to put this kind of period of massive uncertainty behind us. contradictory reports are no help in that regard. the most confusing thing of all would

lisa: there is the most hawkish among the group, james bullard who might end up being dovish later onesn't need to continue hiking rates as dramatically. how much does this highlight the pain being felt by inflation and what that is doing to household budgets, not by the potential unemployment and the potential weakness in an economy that has not been realized? jonathan: payrolls one hour 12 minutes away. good morning. the price action going into payrolls shaping up as follows in the equity market on the s&p 500. futures unchanged, going nowhere. yields higher by about a basis point on a tenure at 383.67. 98 on euro-dollar. crude, 89.28, positive 1%. for today, we were rallying hard. the bti through thursday up 12 percentage points. what did we call the spi yesterday? the strategic midterm reserve? lisa: i got pushback. people saying, this isn't appropriate because it is helping support financial stability of a nation going through a volatile time. i can see the skepticism in your for road brow, i wonder if that is echoed by other people or if they do not care. jonathan: is this the s

having a regime shift and i think the fed, the one that has really been in the lead in the cycle is bullarder his paper in 2016 about regime shifts. these markets, we don't slowly go from this environment to that one. it is a little bit different than six months ago. actually, we could be jumping back to an equilibrium that is much more normal. right now, everyone is convinced there is going to be a hard landing. if they see how things are going, there is a lot of yield out there in long, corporate bonds. it is a real horse race as to whether those yields are peaking, those returns are bottoming out. tom: they are enjoying a 4.1% piece on 10 years. make it nine years. they've also enjoyed 30% drop in price, robert. tell our listeners and viewers how they handle duration if they've enjoyed double-digit losses in bonds? do you come in a short duration or do you go out long duration to pick out coupon? robert: i think we've normalized here. this is an environment where people are supposed to be in some kind of a strategic average position in terms of their location and that includes duration.

tim bullard of the st. louis fed basically said it's up to the companies.ricing power now and are using it at need to realize they have to back off or it's going to hurt everybody. jon: this was never about the november meeting. it was about whether in the news conference this fed chairman could lay the groundwork for a downshift from 75 to 50 to 25. given the data calendar from now to there, do you think it is going to be very difficult for this chairman to lay the groundwork to do just that? mike: it's going to be very difficult. they want to get a 4.5%, 4.5 to 4.34 -- 4.75. the sequencing was supposed to be something along the lines of 75 in november and 50 in december. we will get the pce inflation numbers ahead of the next fed meeting on the second. barring a big drop in that, it counts housing differently, i think you are going to see a hawkish jay powell in the news conference after that 75 basis point move. jon: a shocking number for a lot of you i guess. those of you looking for a downshift in the inflation story, pricing those markets for you it l

they're all on message mary is saying the same thing as bullard's saying as powell is saying i thinkearned that back in july. >> greg, what would you tell people to do as investors? sell any bounce like this? >> i would be looking for this as an opportunity to lighten as we did back in july. you know, obviously where you need to have equity exposure there are safe havens. we have structural damage given the macro environmental where we have secular tail winds and have interelastic demand. energy is a great spot it's one of the few sectors where we saw estimates rise in this quarter as we noted, estimates came notably down, almost historically down in the quarter, but street strategy even though moderate prices have come in, energy still performed and will likely have a supply shock in the report. >> what are you selling right now? >> everything else everything that does not exhibit intoe elastic deanimal, that does not exhibit a secular tailwind that we can point to. at the end of the day, multiples are still too high and we still have to have down provisions in the fourth quarter an