i'm in with bullard. bullard. >> autodesk as well, going to open up almost seven the trend of some of these signings, jim, is going to reduce the likelihood of our more cautious forecasts. >> has to. they sound like fools if they're cautious i mean, i strive to find industries other than banking, which is hobbled by themselves, that really were in trouble. i mean, yeah, you could argue that some of the retailers didn't do well, but walmart did well so, i'm all in with the idea that we're, david, with the exception of maybe aerospace because of boeing and the self-inflicted, we really have an economy that is incredibly strong you need an auto strike to make this thing slow down >> yeah. although, listen, i mean, t-mobile just said they're going to reduce the size of the workforce by just under 7% >> i read that too >> people may have seen that 5,000 jobs that's not insignificant >> that's actually big and mike seifert that's very big, and i'm surprised because t-mobile -- >> yeah, it's not an insignificant

we spoke with jim bullard former st.nts ago and he basically said he thinks we are still in line to get higher rates. jim: i think the biggest question right now is the reacceleration of the u.s. economy atlanta fed gdp now showing substantially above trend growth for the u.s. economy in the third quarter. that is following higher than expected growth in the first half of 2023. and the second half of 2022. mike: so, we are watching to see what comes out of this meeting and jay powell switched to see if he is going to be able to balance all of the things that they were talking about. matt: you mentioned durable goods, you know me all i care about is cars. durable goods are down extra transportation up 0.5% what does that mean? mike: it was as i suggested aircraft. we see the non-defense aircraft we are down 43 6% on the month. this is what you get out of boeing. their planes cost so much that they have a effect on durable goods. last month they were up 71% this month down 43%. we would be happy to know that the automakers

. >> that was jim bullard, former st.ed president speaking with bloomberg's mike mckee yesterday. mike was in jackson hole. bullard was in purdue. he is now the dean of the business school. interesting conversation he brought up had may be a new inflation regime as well which we will talk about in just a moment with cameron crise. we are looking at the market, and where we are. just about three hours, may be less than ahead of the market open, but you can bet there will be low-volume and traders kind of sitting on their hands until we get through the jerome powell speech at jackson hole. right now, s&p futures at .3%. you've got the euro a little weaker against the dollar and the pound, but not a big move right now. still at one away. 10 year yields creeping slowly higher. holding at .425. crude also holding at $80 a barrel print we see brent at just under 85 i think wait and see is what we are doing right now. let me bring in bloomberg's cameron crise to talk about what to expect from jackson hole. i was reading a lot of

we caught up with jim bullard to says the pickup in economic activity this summer could delay plans for the central bank to wrap up its rate increases. >> this re-acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stem the disinflation that we are seeing and instead delay plans for the fed to change policy. >> memory separate those questions in terms of -- let me separate those questions in terms of inflation absent the growth level we have at the moment and it is early read from the atlanta fed, absent that, would you be thinking inflation will re-accelerate anyway based on what you have seen in the economy? >> there has been talk about base effects fading and going to the other way for the second half of the year so we will see if that occurs. i like to look at the 12 month numbers because they rent out -- rinse out some of the seasonal effects so you could get a pause in a disinflation or a little reseller ration -- reacceleration and that would suggest a higher rate profile for the fed been otherwise. michael: chairman powell and the other numbers of the committee have been carefu

and i'm kind of curious if chair powell will channel his inner jim bullard here coming out of the globalsis when rates were zero, bullard said it's zero percent, but the economy is fine, so why do anything just keep it at zero now if you have the fed funds rate at 5.5%, things look good, why mess up a good thing so perhaps his argument is that things look fine for now so why really mess with something that looks good, at least so far >> so if we're looking, julie, at this hire -- and i saw you nod thing as brian was talking if we are looking at a kind of static or stasis , how much longer is longer >> we understand getting from 10% to 5% inflation was pretty easy but getting us down to 2% is probably going to be harder. i think the language out of the fed has been really all over the place, as far as is it 2% or is it 2.5%? it does make a difference, because you start to get these basis coming into the data i don't think we'll get to this place where inflation kisses 2%, and the fed is like guns blazing cut rates. i do think they're going to want to see some consistency and some holding

bullard -- the only reason you go to see bullard's to go to the cardinals with him.oing to be there tonight? are they going to stand up for 10 minutes for bullard? i love busting his chops about it. don't say that, people think we actually have box seats. jonathan: sebastien page joins us now, you can be one of the five this morning. what is behind the bond market move? sebastien: higher inflation expectations. we are all seeing inflation coming down, but when i look at my one year breakevens this morning on my bloomberg, ic 1.56%. to me, that is too low. if i think of the risk to inflation, it is not to the downside, it is to the upside. jonathan, you nailed the reason. it is commodities, oil prices being up 20%. you need energy to produce goods and services. sometimes, we underestimate the impact on even core inflation of higher energy prices. i am not saying inflation is coming back to levels we have seen a year ago, a year and a year-and-a-half ago. the risk as to the upside, that is what the bond market is starting to smell. tom: for radio, this is a bloomberg t

and president bullard to nibble will convey in the meeting in his country's capital to discuss the recent developments. previously, thousands gather the stadium in and it says capital in support for the home to government. newly appointed officials arrived at the venue to is home. this is the simple, it is the size of the cool. so the 2 on fold relations between these. yeah. and is former colonial power funds continue to the to the 8? 9 may vote 5, the think of corporation agreements and suspended world costs are 5 state funded media in the country. powerless responded by stating the bassoon. government is the only legitimate authority following molly advocate f. as in coming to the defense of new jazz, new leadership fraud and suspended all flights to the 2 nations and advised that citizens to reframe from visiting them. we heard from the locals in asia, who say any problems in the country can be sol internally and the foreign powers are not welcome of the monitors that we're here to express or a disagreement with echo was an oldest sanctioned measures that have been taken in our region,

helpful and insightful design committee, which consisted of ed brundage, tony cordero, joe lopez, phil bullard that's right. tony cordero serves aser presidt of the sons and daughters into. he is a gold star sent and going to asksk tony now to say some words on behalf of the design committee. [applause] >> good morning, ladies and gentlemen,, and to all of you vietnam a veterans. today it is proper to say happy vietnam veterans day. congratulations. [applause] >> as jim mentioned, my name is tony cordero. i am a gold star son and lost my dad in vietnam in 1965. what you may wonder is how did an air force brat get mixed up with a bunch of marines in trying to come up with an idea to help run, designed the statute, but to all of you marines from vietnam, it was a wonderful opportunity and i wanted to do this quickly is to acknowledge that we as a nation are 11 years into the vietnam war commemoration, the 50th anniversary of the end of the vietnam war. it is an american tradition that at the 50th and 100th anniversary of the end of all of our wars that we as a nation pause to remember those who

patrick harker reiterated the fed has probably done enough tightening, but on the other hand james bullard telling us and continuing the hawkish note he left on last week that the fed may not be done with the hikes. >> re-acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stem the disinflation we are seeing, and instead delay plans for the fed to change policy. lizzy: i suppose the compromise between those three positions is high for longer rather than higher for longer. what are you listening for later from jay powell? jill: you hit it earlier, if you have data dependent on your bingo card for what powell will say, you probably hit it. he has emphasized this idea to look out for what the data is telling us on their decisions going forward. this is a tricky one for powell. we remember jackson hole last year, powell was incredibly blunt about the need to control inflation. we knew what the cycle would look like at that point but we are in this period where it has become this issue of debate over how you handle these high rates, how long you keep everything for, what you need to look out f

louis fed president jim bullard speaking on tv earlier today.akes us back to the question of the day, what is the buzz at jackson hole? what is going to be the sense we take away from that in just a minute? we've already got a sense from the ecb that the caution is merited here. fascinating listening to mario talk about that. lagarde has a much bigger threat. alix: at what point is that already priced? and does a pause mean a peak? there is a narrative the ecb if they pause in september is that a message that's as far as they can go. guy: i asked the question and did not get a decent answer. the data is so difficult to read. have they already done too much. that's a question you will hear more and more regarding the ecb if we continue to see data like we do in terms of the pmi's. ann-katrin peterson of blackrock joins us. what should investors be listening for out of jackson hole? ann-katrin: all eyes will be on tomorrow speech by jay powell and madam lagarde later in the afternoon. what both of them might be trying to do is shift the focus of h

this is, listen, this bullard saying that, almost everyone has jumped on this bandwagon as well.re you with respect what is the health of the economy right now? >> well, i think it is important to bifurcate the economy. in the manufacturing sector we've actually been in a recession for an extended period of time. if i look where we're seeing growth in the economy it is paradoxically coming from areas like new home construction, which is only occurring because known can actually sell their home at the price they thought they could, right? they can't actually relocate. they can't sell. they can't refinance their properties, the, because of the dramatic increase in interest rates. it creates effectively a state of suspended animation. charles: right. >> if we were to think about a liquid and efficient market it should have lots of transactions. we should be able to get a lot of information and instead we have the lowest number of homes being sold in over 30 years. i mean that is just, that's not a healthy environment. charles: mike, i'm running out of time. i just real quick i got t

he's going to say because what turned the markets or seemed to turn the markets yesterday was jim bullarduggesting the economy was stronger than they were hoping for. sounds contrarean there, but you know how the fed people are and like a weak economy to get rid of inflation. powell might try to counter act that this morning. >> i'm not sure he's going to counter act it. the minutes that came out a week and a half ago suggest that had the bulk of the committee is concerned about rising inflation becoming entrenched because it's still rising and up -- prices are up 4%. they're not down 4% so while it's slowing, they're still rising and those minutes suggested that majority of members of the fed are concerned about it becoming more entrenched and you had jimmy who's not even a fed member anymore, he's the dean of the business school, but you had boston se susie colins that coms out and she's a member and she's worried and former treasury secretary larry summers who's worried and former new york fed chair bill dudley out and he's worried and the only one yesterday saying we're fine is philly

loretta mester, jimmy bullard, neel kashkari have been saying it for months.ant to take it. i think they are concerned about inflation turning up again. we saw a tiny bit of that in the ppi, next week we could get the pce that will capture more the energy move the cpi did not capture this month. to your point i think we're going to 6%. charles: we sold off into the close yesterday after the minutes. we're selling off a little bit here today. overall what does it mean for the broad market? >> actually i think it is good. we've been talking about, i thought it was way too stretched to the upside, that it needed to pull back. so i think that is what it is doing. i don't expect it to crash. i suspect if we hit nasdaq to maybe test nine or 10%, it is already down 6% from the highs three weeks ago. the s&p down 4.4%. if that tests like 7 or 8%. as you know those are well within the normal trading range, right? a 9.9% move from the high is still considered normal t shakes the branch as little bit. the weak ones will fall out. that will be interesting because it will

is the rise something unique or is it as bullard says that we're expecting much better growth, whichn. >> yeah, quite honestly, rick, it's a great point here. i think the market has forgotten the lesson in bond math. and while we still have an inverted yield curve, these may come in over a secular rise that rely upon how the market digests this new ish but more importantly, what the real rates are going to be. we might be in a period of time where inflation doesn't necessarily go back to that 2% benchmark as quickly as people expect, which means the market expectation for rates is a little higher than we've seen over the past generation or so it also leads to the fact that ultimately investors had to be nimble in this regard. there's going to be vulnerability in the markets and the ability to be cautious and embrace these higher yields is a perfect condition given the released outlooks. >> you think inflation will ever get back to 2% in the near future >> i'm sorry, kelly. >> it's a great question, rick and i think ultimately the question with regard to that 2% will take some time in

but then bullard and parker talking about maybe we have done enough. maybe it's time to let the prior hikes work their way into the economy. >> and where are we right now in terms of view of consumer spending. we got our last sort of batch of retail earnings reports last week. mixed bag to say the least. did not show great strength in terms of consumer spending on goods. but services continues to be quite strong. and you also get the credit card data, which i know you follow closely as well, which has shown at least a rise in some delinquencies and overall concern about consumer balance sheets, although on the other side, we continue to hear we still have excess savings. >> more pieces on the tape this morning about the consumer having fire power, even though i think it's diamond who suggested maybe the excess savings run out around christmas time, but you haven't even begun to move into a period where people are tapping equity on their homes or that kind of thing, which would sort of move you into a different chapter in the consumer mind set. >> it wo