we heard it last week at the bundesbank in frankfurt. a, don't talk down the economy.on may not be an accurate read. finally, there a great deal of concern about risk that may be because of the low interest rate environment. ite's the argument, whether will have sway with mario draghi, i expect it well. it is clear that mario draghi is expecting to do something on the deposit rate and asset purchases. whether the deposit rate goes down to -0.3%, down to -0.4%, we don't know. there is a great deal of german queasiness about it. they think that there's some risk building up. my advice to you is always, buy real estate in frankfurt. don't worry about the asset bubble. if you buy in frankfurt and the u.k. does leave the eu, you will be sitting on a gold mine. manus: i think it is time to reenter the irish property market. it is not all hot spots. dangersr dynamic is the of not acting. i don't think anybody's going to say that. george magnus was here. the trade is that the euro is going to get sold off, it is not going to stop off at parity. it has a long way to go. it is g

china stabilizes, that is another reason for bundesbank to say we do not need any more changes.hina has a lot of room to cut its benchmark rate. don't. the others there is policy room for the chinese to come to the support of its economy. if it can support its economy, and germany does ok, then the bundesbank has another reason against ecb dovishness. der europeanwi question we are starting to see as a result of what happened in spain over the course of the weekend is that we used to have very tightened fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. maybe we are starting to see that tip a bit over the course of 2016 with the rise of policymakers within europe and maybe a slightly tighter ecb. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much, indeed. simon kennedy. jeremy cook staying with us. how aldi stole christmas from tesco. check out the tesco share price. it is bleak radineading. ♪ 22 minutes past the hour. you are watching "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv, streaming on your tablet, your phone and bloomberg.com. less talk about christmas. his firstceo is ended full year

. ♪ in therio draghi bundesbank -- he will do whatever it takes to defeat deflation.ts spiked, recalibrating. 300 billion shifting from negative to positive. jobs day in america. janet yellen lines up the talks before her december 16 meeting. and here in paris, president hollande asks they are find a path to a better earth. good morning, everyone. we are alive in paris this friday, december 4. francine is with me. we are here on the river seine in the shadow of notre dame, at an important meeting. francine: i wanted to go through some of the figures. when you look at cities and how they are populated, they account for 40% of co2 emissions. 60% of the world population are in cities. tom: and i think the public, particularly conservatives in every nation but particularly in america, are more comfortable hearing about climate change from their mayors than from leaders of 35,000 pla ces. francine: and it is much easier as in they are to implement things that do better for the earth. tom: we will be here today as our host, the mayor of paris, meets with president hollande

mario draghi has pushed aside protests from the bundesbank. he will do whatever it takes to defeat deflation. markets finally recalibrate. shifts from of debt negative to positive yield. it is jobs day in america. lines up her ducks before the december 16 fed meeting. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from cop21 in paris. four.friday, december 4 tom keene. francine lacqua, wonderful to be here with you. saidine: michael liebreich we will probably have a cop26. copenhagen was such a disappointment. let's hope that this is a step up from copenhagen. tom: here we are in paris. jobs day in america. to new york city, first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the coalition fighting islamic state is getting a new member. germany's parliament approved a plan to send planes and 1200 troops into syria. will conduct reconnaissance, and soldiers will be used only in support bowls. it is -- in support roles. officials in a juice say a fire bombing that killed 16 people today was not terrorism. police are looking for two young

the composite shows why you hear from the bundesbank and the german economy they're not concerned aboutlowdown that maybe we saw in some of the data a couple of weeks ago -- a couple of months ago rather. the meat of the overall euros on composite figure i believe that will come in at 52.8 for manufacturing services. for the composite, 54.2. the number i most excited about and excited may be a bit of a stretch, is indeed that french manufacturing number. of 51.5.e north it has a bit north of that for quite some time. will be see more gallic strength this morning? anna: i admire your enthusiasm. he has had an extra hour on us. it revealed what do you expect for the pmi data. interesting research erik from deutsche bank, said that in the past 20 years the bank of england has tended to follow the fed with a three-month lag. the economies are increasingly intertwined. this time, that is certainly not present in the markets. the market suggest we won't get in increase from the bank of england until 2017. andrew: the markets have become a bit too relaxed about interest rates. perhaps when we

and people have spoken recently about the policy divergence in 1994 between the bundesbank and -- fedree. that was a specific german issue during reno vacation. if you go back further to the mid-1980's, the last time we had true convergence when you had -- divergence in u.s. was tightening, you saw the dollar appreciate aggressively. i expect that to continue to be the trend in a 2016. betty: simon french, thank you. also thanks to carl. much more ahead in the next half hour of "bloomberg market." ukraine defaulting on a bond payment to russia. we will hear what the finance minister has to say about that news. oil is a lever the place today. talk about volatile markets. look at the latest on the crude market. some mining giants are in trouble. we will do the details behind the mining meltdown. ♪ betty: welcome back. julie hyman as a check on some of the company movers including some of the biggest laggards today. i imagine there are plenty to choose from. time icarmax, last checked, it was the worst performing stock in the s&p 500. coming out with third-quarter adjusted earnings per s

if you ask the the -- if you ask the ecb or the bundesbank if they could adopt policies like this, theyce in the world this could happen. i think all central banks around the world would love to have the opportunity to get rates back to a more normal level, get the system functioning more normally. they would love to get even a zero real fed funds rate, and if you look at underlying inflation, the core cpi is at 2%. certainly a zero real fed funds rate, which historically is low, we get the funds rate back to between 1.5% and 2% over the next 12 to 18 months. tom: let's bring in that chart. andrt sinche with us, daragh maher. throughout the day, discussions on what chair yellen will do. fu,1:00 p.m., scarlet michael mckee, and myself with esteemed guests, including richard clarida. we want to talk about how the market is affected by this important fed decision. stay with us. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. how about a forex report on this important day? robert sinche has looked for a stronger yen. one of the surprises for 2016. the yuan continues to weaken. stasis.ruble, attention, we ne

bundesbank gotten on board with the fact that quantitative easing is not only going to stay, it is goingbring you back to the fed here it is janet yellen central bank or to the world? is she the dominant central bank or even for europe? george: the fed still basically sets the standard. tom: they create the divergence you speak of. george: they do, and they are incrementally ahead of where the central banks want to get to. success, seeing some and if that continues, the big event next year could ultimately be a euro taper tantrum, where the economic improvements start to come through that are a , ande bit more broad-based the ecb becomes less dependent on pure stimulus. i think that is a distinct possibility. i think the fed and janet yellen still hold the keys to the car and are still the dominant factor when it comes to setting sentiment, setting rates, and ultimately i think capital allocation. guy: i take you back to the last month when we had the fed raising rates, and the ecb announcement. the ecb was a disappointment and it had a bigger influence on the currency markets and the fe

thenterpretation is that problem in frankfurt is not resistance from the bundesbank, it is nottypicalulties in the bond market. it is that the ecb is a very large supertanker to stay on theme, and it takes them a long time to turn the ship. guy: have we reached the point be going to would japan? barry: that would be good news because japan is coming out of its deflation and long slump. the problem of week commodity prices weighing on central-bank efforts to bring inflation up to 2% has been a problem in japan. it is the problem in europe now. guy: japan is coming out of it, but it is after 20 years. the euro zone going into it. barry: it can be done more quickly, and we have to hope that mario draghi watches what mr. perot to has done. in what do you fold barry eichengreen has done? you are in the trenches. how do you take his work and other economists and folded in doclear bridge echo brian: i not envy his position or annie of that of the global macro. it is very difficult. fed,y response by the whether it was tarp, qe1, qe2, or qe3, is unprecedented. tom: how much of this is proppin

bundesbank president -- it was not that vocal and it was not enough to stop quantitative easing. readd an inflation yesterday. inflation has been stubbornly low, coming in at 0.1% giving you an indication that mario draghi does not move. this is baked into the market. there is so much expectation they're going to expand the size and scope of quantitative easing , you take a look at the deposit rate, what we could have there. it is at 0.2%, it could go to -0.3%. even a sizable majority is calling that all the way down to zero point 4%. we may have some dissent. we will see what happens at that press conference later. the only thing you can get excited about is how weak the euro is going to get or i will give you this gdp day. that is also a fun day. it is a big one. i'm sure you will be tuning in to that conference. anna: one of the dangers of not acting or overreacting? >> it is a credibility issue. when you look at the market expectations, there is going to be something done here. here's a great quote i read overnight. expecting an analyst what they are bracing for. traders are

the bundesbank president saying he voted against it's measures because he didn't see a need f stimulus. that confirmed draghi faced a tough committee and went as far as he could. >> was it maybe just opposition or was there maybe the feeling he wanted to leave some extra tools in the box? >> that's one thing that's possible. it's worth talking about the effect of the fed. draghi not going quite so far, you get appreciation of the euro. that makes it easier for yellen to hike in december. >> let's talk about the most recent news out of the california investigation, that being nbc news reporting that one of the shooters at least had been, quote, radicalized, at least based on some connections that he had in the islamic community in california. do you think that as this investigation turns, tilts more towards the idea of domestic terror, there could be a broader economic impact lasting? >> i think there's certainly one in the markets and it has the potential knock on effect to the economy. yellen was asked about that today. she said there's a potential terrorist premium out there, she has

now if fox business network exclusive, is the chairman of ubs axle weber former president of the bundesbanko see you thank you for joining us ecb you've got expertise when it comes to central bank policy coming from bund bundes bank spencer on central banks your take on ecb move was the market waps twharptd that massive negative reaction? >> well, we talked to clients all over the week in new york, and it will was exactly what we expected, 10 basis point cut into negative territory another half year, of prolong gaugs of the progr investigation what it shows one or two weeks expectation started to run away massive measures shows you hoi difficult it is, when rates are zero or negative, and assets already highly priced how to add further stimulus we are seeing digs of benefits forth easing coming down, being very, very close to zero, so these policies have run their way for three years, and adding to them will not really make -- be a game cheapering for the xaun. >> you need fundamental change not necessarily central bank moves but fiscal policy that will move the needle. >> fiscal. >> and ma