meantime, let's bring in seth carpenter, chief economist with ubs and burns mckinney, portfolio manager with allianz global investors burns, let me start with you and ask you where you think the economy is right now and whether it is still growing, number one, or whether it is starting to slow >> i'd probably be in the latter camp we start off with basically we had a bottom that looked very much like a "v" but we made it halfway up the top and it started to taper off a bit if you look at the number of jobs lost, we made up about half of those jobs. and a lot of the real-time indicators are starting to slow. you can't be deceived by very large growth rates off of what is a deflated base, but, nonetheless, things are starting to slow. it seems you have around the world and certainly in the u.s., openings and closings have been sporadic those are really a codifiction of human behavior. there seems to be places in structural damage like some service sectors as well as small businesses that aren't captured by the stock market's sharp rebound. >> that i think that is a really important point,