every year byron ween comes out a list with his surprises for the year, political and economic. every year he nails a lot and just misses a few. byron joins me now with a look at what he says will happen for the rest of the year. >> always good to be here. >> when you talk about your surprises, let's look at some of yo your predictions for 2012. some have already happened. i'm struck by oil at $85 a barrel. >> that's a reach. >> why do you think that oil is going to go down to $85? >> i think this hydraulic fracking for oil and gas is a very big deal. i refer to it as the game changer. we've got a lot of oil in reservoirs in rock. this is oil that we would get out of reservoirs if we could hang around for 10 million more years because the oil would seep through the rock into reservoirs. but by taking it out of the rook w rock and there is a lot of it. >> do you think oil where it is right now, comfortably above $100 a barrel is overpriced? >> i do. i think there is an iran premium in it right now. i think the normal price is around 100 but i think if i'm right about this hydrauli