equities next guest expects a strong finish already for 2015. >> he is our old friend byron wien withen surprises for the year and joins us on the cnbc news line. byron, these are not predictions. these are surprises. >> things i think are probable events. >> all right. >> a better than 50% chance of happening. and, bill, you wouldn't give them better than a one third chance. >> oh no, no no. knowing who they're from of course i give them a better chance. up 15% on the s&p when all is said and done for this year. still after the selloff this week? >> yeah. this is the 30th year of the 10 surprises. we have been together for many of them. >> yep. >> very often one or two of them start out badly. and that's happening this year. but i think earnings come through. the u.s. economy is strong. in spite of what's going on around the world. the multiple is just the average of the markets. 1950. we're only selling a little over 16 times. i think we can sell 20 times at some point. so i think the combination of earnings improvement a little multiple improvement we can make the 15%. >> byron, ma