cameron dawson back with us again. she joins us to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. bob, you first, it's been an interesting market reaction. what's your takeaway >> it's been one data is coming in better than expected, and i think jeffery's comments about data being weak or signs of weaknds, a lot of that is either market-based data or soft data if you look at the hard data, things like instead of looking at pmi, looking at industrial production, they remain resilient, you haven't seen enough weakness in the data to suggest the fed needs no make an about-face >> we've wrestled with this idea of who's really in charge. have the bulls gotten it back? jeff makes the case. obviously, he's the bond king. he's a bond guy. he's going to make the case in some respects for bonds, as he did. but it is a hurdle to get over, that there is -- there are other attractive securities to be investing in besides equities, still, whether it's cash or fixed income >> i think the real question, and the issue for the marke

gene munster, as well on that apple $3 trillion market cap cameron dawson will join us, too.> i'm going to go with jacobs this is a long-term trade. it will go to $4 trillion by next week. a nice, steady trade jimmy is going to buy this eventually when it's above 30% >> what do you have? >> visa. people will continue to swipe and earnings kick off in the next two weeks and visa has an 8% holding >> farmer jim? >> transocean. i've been talking about this more this year this is the highest way to play oil. >> liz >> small smcaps, profitable one. >> good stuff, everybody "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >>> thank you very much, scott i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans today. here is what is ahead. from fomo to gerf. we're joined with what it stands for and why now is not the time to embrace it as a market strategy and where he sees the biggest opportunities in the second half of the year. >>> the supreme court ending joe biden's student loan forgiveness plan an

bring in cameron dawson of new edge wealth. nice to see you again. welcome back you heard the professor. what are your thoughts something probably tells me you disagree >> i think the first step is i think we would disagree of the probability of cuts meaning we see no probability of a recession given the pace of data we've seen through the first half of this year. it's remained resoundingly strong there are pockets of waeakness but really not enough to give the fed wiggle room to ease policy the thing that's surprised us the most is the ability for valuations to diverge from yields that's why we were more cautious going into the year saying if the fed stays higher and tighter for longer, that kind of keeps a lid on valuations. that has not played out at all you've seen the nasdaq valuation go from 20 times to 32 times this year which is just a reflection of the fed is not the only game in town. >> at what point do you follow what is the perceived message of this market and change your view and get more positive on where we might go? the market's tell

let's bring in cameron dawson to talk about this. >> thank you >> welcome the jobs nucmber today, certainl strong, but enough slowdown internally to make people think the soft landing is not out of the question the fed's told us that perhaps they're willing to skip with the strong skipper rate hike, and we have the tech leadership and maybe it's starting to broaden out. what's wrong with this picture >> it's encouraging that for the first day in a really long time that the rally isn't just a handful of names and a handful of tech names and to see names like caterpillar up 7%, 8% today, energy stocks up 3%, that's really encouraging and a sign that maybe this fear of having a very sharp slowdown in the very near term isn't happening, supported by the economic data we got today as well as the china stimulus, and i actually think that is what's behind a lot of these moves in the cyclical names because if we see more economic support out of china, good for commodities, good for these value names that have really beaten up and left for dead all year long. >> they have there's a way of describin

coming up we have cameron dawson joining us -- we have darlie come --darwie kung joining us.us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we need to bring inflation down to have sustainability. this time around since it is not a demand phenomena we have supply disruptions correcting the cells and energy races coming down area that is helping bring inflation down without having too much of a hit the economy. we will have to wait and see. we are only just seeing the effects of this working through the system. tom: we will have to wait and see she sounds like the economist she is. the imf managing director. tough sledding for francine lacqua. think of the movie frozen, let it go. let it go. it is this gorgeous 18th-century 17th century set of little shadows and fancy laces where fancy people live. that is where the ecb holds a summer meeting with the group speaking earlier today. tomorrow we will give a coverage of central bank. look for francine lacqua and pulse we will have it there for you from 4:00 a.m. new york times. red and green on the screen. right now we look at commodities. an importan

cameron dawson is chief investment officer at new edge wealth we haven't seen mike wilson for a whilesound like he's changing his mind. >> it's almost a 50% move from where he was talking about so he's obviously -- >> i want to read the rest of it >> scrambling and on the wrong side of things but let's talk to cameron about it you are probably not now saying buy with both hands. your probably not saying that, but have you moved up the -- where you think that if we do, that this is a relief rally and not a permanent new bull market, are you above the october lows now for -- how far down do you think the market needs to go to catch support? >> i think that's a really good point that as we push out the recession timing, meaning that it's not definitely a first half '23 thing, could be more about a 2024 scenario, meaning we're starting from a higher base, meaning we may not recapture those october lows from 2022, but it doesn't me dpat fact that we have a market that's very extended in the short-term you could see a pullback in the nasdaq it means that we've moved very far, very fast so w

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