jonathan: cameron dawson going through this market. eep going back to the number one weighting of the s&p. there is a story there. lisa: if you take what cameron said and you take it one step further and bonds do not look good. where will people put their money? if you're getting higher revenues at that, that might encourage people to go into stocks, even though there is a high multiple in place. jonathan: welcome to the program. we are positive .3%. coming up in about 45 minutes we will catch up with mike wilson at morgan stanley with a note over the weekend about supporting equity so far and we will get his view on whether he thinks that will last through year end and beyond. we do have a picture of jim bianco with a fish. wonderful. explain what is camco talk? lisa: you took the picture? tom: if we go to jackson hole we can get you and bramo in a canoe on the lake. cameron: if this is an open invite i am there. tom: this is not the end of the chicago river like lake michigan. bring that up. cameron: i'm just saying that was not the l

cameron dawson, the best guess of the hour. is it andrew or max? t talking to you. tom: were you at miami? cameron: no. jonathan: i don't like the new racing calendar. i don't. tom: i don't like it because these courses are radically different. fenway park versus yankee stadium, they are radically different. at the up and down, we don't see the elevation thing. we don't have that. jonathan: at formula one, they want to make it a surface duster circus. our financial reasons. but if you are a purist and you want to see him go around classic tracks, that is the part of the race calendar i love. tom: like watkins glen in upstate new york. jonathan: just like it. tom: pulling a nominator. jonathan: equities--jobless claims in america 60 minutes away. data so far making progress in a way that mainly the fed would like to see. equities up, yields lower, down two basis points from new york, good morning. ♪ >> the 10 year treasury in my line -- mind -- i do think if we get it back to 10%, it won't happen this year. it will be a first half of 2024 event. i th

let's ask cameron dawson, chief investment officer for new edge wealth here with me at post nine. welcome back. how about that? >> yeah. >> are we finding our momentum again? >> i think that it is very healthy sign to see this broad-based participation in the upside of the market. it is remaining to be seen if we can get through september unscathed. our base case is that this will be in that shortened shallow category, meaning it wasn't the start of something more n nefarious as we looked at august. >> you mean the correction? >> we weren't expecting it to look like 2022 for example, the beginning of something. it wasn't about growth. it was about interest rates. it was about valuations and positioning. so that would say that seasonality likely means during this sideways chop, does it mean we return to that up into the market of may, june and july, maybe not. but that's very different than expecting a big deep drawdown. >> i think you were looking for a little bit more of a drawdown than we probably got, though, from our last conversations. once we started to look a little edgy in

. >> let's broaden the conversation and bring in cameron dawson of new edge wealth and marcy mcgregor of bank of america. how does this sound? we're trying to parse out whether, in fact, the market has overshot what we can expect from the economy. you've pointed out the equal weight s&p is not necessarily parallel to the market cap in terms of valuation and performance. >> yeah, i think one of the other things to add to the conversation is about positioning, because that does explain a fair amount of the move that we've had and that positioning tends to be the bigger driver in the short term. and to adam's point, valuations don't really kick as a headwind if they're head, really until you look out two plus years. they're not good timing tools. so when we look at the positioning standpoint, what we can see is that positioning has gone from being deeply underweight to being closer to overweight but not to the extreme like we saw at the beginning of 2022, because history suggests that the point that valuations matter is when you are at very long positioning, meaning that that's when peop

new edge's cameron dawson making the case here now at post nine good to see you again. we should note as we're at the lows of the day, the dow has reached it 50s-day moving average. why do you argue today that this has more to go >> the confluence of evidence would support there's more to go because of seasonality, we're in a bad seasonal stretch, september the worst month. we know momentum has turned negative in the near term on a tactical basis and breath, the number of names trading above their 50-day moving average, it's not washed out yet, so there's still likely some churn and digestion to go. we've crossed under the 50 day likely support at the august 2022 higher, and then we'll see how we deal with that support level. >> what do you make of this alleged change in mentality from what was a decidedly buy the dip market to what has become a sell the rip market >> i think the first thing to acknowledge, it is very tactical the strategic long-term investor this shouldn't change from what your plan is i think we can put it in the context of the 50-day. prior to the se

cameron dawson is on deck. you will get a bonus today. you will learn what a duck market is. danielle dimartino booth is in studio where the fed goes from here. president biden celebrating the first anniversary of the inflation reduction act. they're shifting to "pravda" mode to sell the product. we have homeless crisis and death crisis. it is awful. former hud secretary ben carson is here at 2:50. millenials have legitimate beefs but they may not like my answers when nothing is cheap anymore. all that and more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right, so the market dealing with summer doldrums. investors kind of hoping though, this recent weakness is just a seasonal thing. what is interesting is that professional investors, right, here in the yellow, are starting to get bullish, right? they're trying to catch up with the dumb money who rode out this rally big time from the very beginning. of course they have a lot more at stake now, these pros, because they missed the first half of this year in the rally, only just begun to increase equity exposure. what is compelling here,

cameron dawson is with us. good morning catherine. you will leave just come back from the beach.. >> there are three things to add to the supply discussion. there is less japanese when powell talked about cutting interest rates at 2024, inflation would be above target? they will tolerate. the higher inflation. on top of the outcome of the discussion about r-star. what is the neutral rate in the discussion that it could be higher that the long end of the curve is probably too long given the neutral rate of reality. jonathan: is something he discusses next week? . the new structure of the global economy. giving the nod to maybe we should discuss mutual rates because we have raised rates so much? the economy remains resilient. the key here is after dedicated -- decade of quantitative easing. have we wrapped our head around the broader risk markets at a time of four .3% 10-year treasury yield. cameron: no because of where we stand with valuations. there is this disconnect from valuations moving in the operate -- opposite direction. you have seen valuations come outside. it is importa