let's ask cameron dawson of new edge wealth. good to see you. welcome back. i think everybody wants a real clear and simple answer to the idea of whether we can have a late year rally or not, seasonality is on our side, but we have all these other issues, elevated rates, elevated tension in the middle east, and what's going to win out. and then mega caps next week, too. what's your sense? >> i think the mega caps are the key point here which is that's what's so very different than 2022 when fourth quarter was really weak, we saw weakness into the end of the year despite seasonality because of tax loss selling. the mega caps have been weak all last year and so people were using that as a way to recognize tax losses. that's not happening this year. and maybe it will be delayed in wanting to recognize tax gains which just means the area people will be selling into will be smaller places like the russell 2000 or utilities, staples, health care, those likely can't pull the overall index down. now we would watch the 200 day moving average closely. we bounced off it

chief investment officer cameron dawson is.r thoughts on this jobs report, and even more importantly, the market reaction. you had an initial selloff, you know, with bond yields soaring, stocks falling, and now it's all turning around. >> yeah, it really was that goldilocks jobs report with this idea that growth in the labor market could remain strong but you'd see a little bit of easing in inflation pressures, and that's what we got with the average hourly earnings only coming in at .2% month over month. so it seems like the market is running with this idea that this goldilockses scenario could very well play out. now, of course, there's questions raised about some of the trends under the surface, how long we can sustain these strong jobs gains. if some of the weakness in some of the data kind of in the periphery will start to show there is more weakness under the surface, but for now this supports the idea that the fed may not have to do a lot more. but importantly, it also supports the idea that maybe the fed won't be cuttin

we wrap up the week, march into the finish with cameron dawson, scott black is back with us, value investornal trade. what do you have? >> consumer staples. not just because people are feeling uneasy about the middle east. there's an opportunity for margin recapcapture next year a inflation comes down. >> josh brown? >> uber. they're reporting november 7th, but i think it will be a good report. >> speaking of late report, next week we don't get apple yet, we don't get nvidia yet. so we've got to go in steps here before we get to the biggest one in the market and arguably the most important as it relates to ai. kevin simpson? >> microsoft. off 6% since the last earnings report. they crushed it, double digit growth for years. i like the stock. >> i'm staying short the itb. i don't see any good news construction. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >>> thank you, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. the ten-year yield crossing 5% for the first time since 2007. we jumped a full point now since early august. chair powell saying monetary policy isn't too res

jonathan: cameron dawson of new age wealth, thank you.p 500 negative by 0.01%. yields higher by five basis points. that is what we're focused on, the 10-year, 4.9641, getting closer to 5%. bankrate, mortgage in america. we will discuss this later in the hour, but 8%? a percent. lisa: basically what you are seeing is stasis in sales, mortgage applications falling to the lowest in 28 years. we talked about how things are not really breaking and a lot of people would say the housing market has broken because he was going to buy a home and take out a mortgage for a percent? it increases -- for 8%? it increases the price when prices are not coming down. jonathan: it is certainly frozen. tom: it is a separate thing. it is part of the mix. total me, i found cameron was brilliant on this, there is a real yield. this is something a huge part of the public is not confronted. 2.35%. i don't know, 2.6, i don't know when the world falls apart, but every textbook tells me that is what to follow. jonathan: this will be a big deal in the election of what

cameron dawson with me tom lee. tony pascarello. we get a look at his thoughts.us, as well can't wait to have conversations in a couple of hours brynn, what you got? >> jepx. if you want a defensive way to own the best company in the world, they cover calls on the qqqs >> thank you kev simpson? >> microsoft microsoft was my final trade last week, it's the final trade again. it wasn't rewarded by microsoft. >> vfcorp. look at sketchers and columbia, all proxies. >> the only person rooting for the jets and the giants this sunday, steve weiss. >> xhb short look, it may pop next week if the fed does nothing >> good stuff. thanks for the tease see you at "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. >> scott, thank you very much. and hello, everybody i'm tyler mathisen in today for kelly evans. one of our guests says the consumer isn't as strong as the data suggests. the other is feeling like a hopeful cubs fan in reverse. both figures will explain what they mean and what it means for the fed and the markets. >>> plus, how is the world's second largest asset manager managing

cameron dawson. keith, good to see you. keith lerner. >> what will be the best performing sector in the fourth quarter? tech, energy, consumer discretionary or financials and we'll share the results later on in the hour. in the meantime a check of top stocks to watch and here's pippa stephens. >> discover financial is having its best day since last november after promising to have the consumer compliance part of the fdic look with an unrelated credit card classification error. shares are down more than 20% since then. jefferies is bullish on diabetes device makers saying the recent wave of drugs won't drag on the companies as much as fear. they reiterate their buy ratings on scott. >> thanks, pippa stevens. >> up next, from a september slump to a year-end surge, ed yardeni makes the argument for why stocks can bounce back to record highs or recent highs, excuse me, recent highs. he may think record highs, too. we'll talk about that. later, forget 5% on the ten-year. we have someone who says the yield is well beyond that. he

manus cranny and cameron dawson are with us. d markets and we see earnings coming out. it's been catching my eye, everything has been beating. cameron: much better than expected. it's looking at the consumer better than expected, industrials better-than-expected and we just got sherwin-williams that raised guidance significantly. that's a housing related stock. people are spending more on their house so clearly the consumer in these earnings is holding up better than expected. summer confirming that better retail sales we got in september. manus: do you think the story about excess savings running off his we are overplaying it when you look at the wealth report we looked at yesterday? is the excess savings narrative dropping so aggressively is folly? cameron: i think it's a fading tailwind but it's not a headwind. the consumer balance sheet is healthy. manus: the debate as it turns into a headwind next year. cameron: if you look at consumer credit cards as a percentage of the disposable income, they are back to their 2019 levels.

biggest chunk, 80 points 80 points on the back of the earnings i appreciate your time very much cameron dawson pete, talk to you soon thank you. >> let's get to our question of the day now. speaking of those declines, which dow stock would you buy on today's pullback jpmorgan chevron? j&j? p & g? the results are coming up. later on in the hour in the meantime, a check of some top stocks to watch as we head to close kristina partsinevelos is here >> the schuhoe maker is going u, shares of deckers up almost 45% year to date, and almost up 20% right now. sanofi, opposite direction the worst day ever on weak guidance as they plan to spend more on research development and overshadowing plans to spin off the consumer health care business, following similar moves by rival j&j and the moves have wiped off $20 billion from the sanofi market cap shares back to you. >> thank you, kristina partsinevelos. >>> up next, tom lee he has a heavy lift. he is bullish as you know in the face of this selling this week he will join us next to tell us what happens next. >>> and sam bankman-fried still testifying in f

for more on the markets and expectations for third quarter earnings, we want to bring in cameron dawsonink of the reports we already heard this morning? it sounds like just about every one of the companies if not all of them have beat expectations this morning. if you listen to the commentary, there are some signs of concern about what comes next for the economy. >> i think that is exactly it. there is a lot of blocking and tackling this quarter. you see by a name like jpmorgan still able to do an 18% return on equity, just shows you that even in a challenging time they're still able to be very profitable. the question is do times get even more challenging? jpmorgan talked about how consumers are starting to spin down their cash balances, but they're not at a point of reaching the full exhaustion of their spending capability. but, of course, banks are very aware that if consumers continue to get pinched by inflation, things like higher oil prices, you spent on the cash balances, how many more levers can you pull for the consumer to be the sole driver upside surprise for this economy, wh