r r risk, there has been some capital flight, and there's a concern of theirs. >> president biden made comments about this a couple of weeks ago, people will think that will keep them from doing something with taiwan. i think it emboldens them. what are your thoughts stuff going on in the south china sea right now is not particularly good. >> well, i'm sort of with you, guy, you know, when you have weakness at home, it's the old wag the dog movie, you know? you start a conflict somewhere else to deflect attention away from problems at home. i hope and i certainly don't think china's going to move p prematurely in taiwan, but you know, we're putting a lot of pressure on them to react to our position, which is very strident, especially in the u.s. house of representatives, with respect to taiwan so, you can't rule anything out, but that's certainly not my base case scenario >> you mentioned the problems at home i mean, youth unemployment is so bad that they are stopping -- they're not going to report the data anymore at what point does this become a security threat to -- i mean, you mentioned that xi jinping is the security president, he's concerned with security, particularly domestically, and these domestic problems could lead to insurrection at some point, if they're bad enough >> yeah, i think we overplay the likelihood of internal uprising in china youth unemployment is an issue, especially since the government has clamped down a lot on the private sector, especially the internet companies, as you guys noted earlier, and that's a big source of job growth for young people they've got to address it. even though they've suspended the data on it, they all know there's a serious problem there, you know, consumers are weak in china, they also canceled the debt on consumer confidence. it would be great if we could cancel all of our bad data and pretend we don't have any problems, either you know, the china, canceling data or not, they know they've got serious issues that need to be addressed >> all right, professor roach, thank you for your time. >> thank you, melissa. >> stephen roach so, what do you think looks the most attractive. we can trade this -- >> i think i said 114, i think baba got up to 104 you trade these stocks, but i'm glad tim brought up the chinese currency, because, again, the last time we saw levels close to this was eight years ago, almost to the day, when the yuan was devalued and had the reverberations in global markets over the next couple of months markets don't seem to care about it right now, but i think they will >> i think markets should care a lot about the dollar the move we've had in the dollar, this last move in the dollar has been one of the biggest surging in a two-year dollar rally, which looked like it topped out last october i still think it has, and short dollar is one of the most cr crowded trades coming into the second half of the year, so, let's see. if you trade em x china, look brazil and india those are two markets and economies that benefit from the things that are giving china problems. >>> meantime, mastercard on the move shares trading at all-time highs dating back to the company's ipo in 2006. the stock up 17% this year comes as credit card delinquencies rise, the highest that it's been in a decade julie, how do you read this? >> i think this is kind of everything we've been talking about here for awhile, right, where we continue to be really concerned about the health of the consumer, particularly the lower end consumer, and i think a lot of it is, everyone feels confident pointing back to, we have this excess savings glut, and it really matters who is holding the excess savings if it's in the top 1%, it's not going to get spent >> oh. we have a little problem with julie. >> ghosts in the machine >> the good news is -- >> the problem is not her analysis, by the way she was smack on with that >> police album, as we said earlier. so, this works for companies that don't take credit risk. mastercard and vivisa i'm sure they care on the outskirts of credit risk, but it doesn't really effect them one of the reasons they've outperformed american express is because of exactly that. >> all right, coming up, all eyes on prescription drug prices, investors await the first batch of drugs up for negotiation with medicare, so, which names could make the list, and how will pharma stocks react? that trade is next >>> plus, industrial-sized gains. the group leading the market over the past week and a few names are even hitting all-time highs, so, can they keep boosting your portfolio? we'll debate that, when "fast money" returns gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. bridgett is here. investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment. could you turn down the volume? here, you can try. get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. >>> welcome back to "fast money. a huge week ahead for big pharma, as the biden administration gets set to announce the first ten drugs selected for price negotiation analysts are expects treatments from pfizer, eli lilly, and america to feature prominently on that list we talked about the weight loss drug companies having extremely high multiples, but the rest of the group has traded at depressed multiples. and i'm thinking of your pfizer. >> pfizer is certainly one of them and it's as if pfizer did nothing before covid and covid vaccines and they're treated as if they didn't and how are they going to come up -- they spent a lot of money they spent $25 billion and put that money to work pretty quickly. and the expectation is, the pipeline that's worth $30 billion in revenues by 2030. we'll see. i do think that pfizer's very interesting here and i do think these negotiations are political and headlines and, you know, it makes some sense they're pushing back, but i'd be amazed if they're able to get some of the victories. i mean the government. >> really? >> i think the drug companies, when they get together and we've seen strijindividual fights bei picked >> certainly heard the commentary in the recent conference calls about this. really the ceos speaking out we've seen lawsuits being filed to stop this, because the price changes would go into e next 2026 julie, how do you view this? we'll get the list of ten and in theory, maybe that will give you some clarity for a short amount of time, but yet the government can add names to thatlist in the future, so -- i mean, it's like a tiny sliver of clarity, maybe, for that day. >> it's not much -- it is not much clarity it's like asking for the list of all your greatest flaws. it's never going to be comprehensive. >> excuse me sorry. list of what >> broadly speaking, the biggest challenges we're going to have are, you know, getting confident that, you know, the list that we have is going to be, okay, that's it, that's all we have to expert, we're not going to need anymore of these cuts in terms of pricing, and i think, you know, when you consider the margins of some of these businesses, it's hard for them to argue against congress, right? but they also are able to leverage back and say, look, that's how we do r and d, we make money on the drugs that we have in our pipelines. so, that supports an industry that's very strong think of, you know, the first to come to the covid vaccine. so, you know, i think that there is a lot of lobbying that happens. it's one of the strongest lobbying bodies, so, they are able to muscle their way, but congress has to look like they're doing something, and this is a very easy villain to pick, pharma companies are the easiest villain to pick. >> a name like eli lilly, guy. >> while you were gone -- >> shakespearean >> 1700s >> very powdered wig stuff >> well, i mean -- you know, it's funny you say wig, because i was the last person to vote when the whigs were against the torries back in the day. >> all-time high >> all-time high, it's been on fire valuations, people will point to it's very hard in my opinion for them to have the move they've enjoyed to continue the upside there will be a place to buy this cheaper what's going to get interesting is eli lilly, whi