economy is faring is our chief economist carl riccadonna's.e are saying the reason see ahe u.s. will not recession is because of the consumer. number coming up on friday, we're going to see a further downward revision. but you economy was close to stalling in the fourth quarter, and what kept us going was consumers. we also have generated data on consumer spending. what we are seeing is that consumers are the lead line for the economy this year. demand for things like automobiles, houses, and big ticket purchases is mostly intact. investors are muddling through good, not great. >> we have seen how sales pretty healthy over the last few quarters. will we see a pickup in wages? that is a powerful driver of stronger consumer spending this year. with the unemployment rate below 5% for wage pressures are starting to lift. goes ae wage pressure long way. that is an important critical engine. a soundnt to show you morning. this >> looking out the next couple of quarters, we do not see any sign of an upturn. there will be another recession, there is n

carl riccadonna, thank you so much.lix: we will be looking at three charge you may have missed in today's report on "what did you miss?" later today. scarlet: still ahead, more on jobs and the economy. the president will be speaking live from washington on the state of the economy. we will bring you his comments. ♪ scarlet: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. alix: i'm alix steel. flex work is a win for everyone. companies are producing rental costs, capitalizing on technology, and employees can work from the comfort of their own home. except there is a cost to the planet. scarlet: according to a study by carbon biggest provider, working from home can increase what causes global warning could people turn up the heat and energy consumption increases 20% when people work live.where they unless you plan to sit there with your winter jacket on, you will crank the heat up. alix: working from home is only green if you're traveling a lot. if you travel over 12 miles a day by bus or seven miles a day by car, ba

in-house economist, carl riccadonna. we have a lot to break down. vonnie?how latest donald trump leading among republican voters. will trump show up? hillary clinton has a slight lead over bernie sanders. the u.s. has expanded its fight against islamic state. in three weeks, u.s. forces have carried out a dozen attacks linked with the group in afghanistan according to the "new york times." world's least connected nations will be getting broadband internet service. cuba is limiting a pilot project in homes in two neighborhoods. broadband is currently only legal for diplomats. powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 250 news bureaus. brendan: and now i get a pleasure i have not had four months. thomas kean is with us to talk about -- tom: this is the single best research note i saw over the weekend. -- in anaw what japan -- highent of limited report propensity where were sumer's -- consumers respond and food --y have to, gas, they told the line on everything else. this is the second and third round effects. brendan: we don't have a good the negativewhat

with us is tome keene and carl riccadonna. the first word is with nejra cehic.kerry is optimistic that a limited cease-fire may be within reach. suicidee as soon as to bomb attacks clothes for people to desk killed four people. have agreed russia to a cease-fire that would not kill russian troops. both countries have signed a treaty allowing observations to foster transparency about military activity. u.s. officials worried that the collectmake help russia intelligence about the u.s. military. denny hamlin beat martin truex by one 100th of a second. daytona 500closest finish ever in the first toyota to win a race. love auto, but you have to love a finish like that. unless you came in second. david: tom keene is here with our morning must-read. this strikes me as one of the most important issues around the world today. tom: i put this out as my first weekend read. fired up about asset bubbles and sucks, drawing false comfort from low inflation over accommodative- monetary policies have led to massive bubbles and asset in credit markets, resulting in major distort

now, carling us riccadonna. what's your take away? carl: she is not showing buyers remorse for the lift off. she is not signing -- showing signs of turning. she is a minimal to a slower toed but she is not wavering the degree the financial markets are wavering. i think she tried to shake the markets and say all is not lost, look at what the economy has going for it. spending. out auto housing is performing well. the government spending will help as well. you look at the stock market since the start of the year, things look bad. alix: what does she say? the: she is attuned to depressant effect on the economy from financial conditions and the selloff inequities, credit market spreads and other factors. however, she categorized in a way she said if these persist they may have an impact on the economy. that is different than saying that is the upper end of the applecart. not seeing a sustained impact which drawls a parallel back to what we saw in late august and tighteningmber, this of financial conditions but not a sustained impact on the

carl riccadonna. one last look on the markets before the fomc minutes come out. markets desk. julie: we are still up. alix: all right, take care. carl: just about the same we saw one hour ago. julie: the gains today have been steady just as they happen for the past several days. bounce has stretched into three days. will the fed minutes the real this in any fashion? it is a somewhat unlikely given this is backward looking. trajectory has been closing of the highs of the session for the past several days. that movement continues in the same direction today. as we've seen volume of stocks, weep seen selling of treasuries -- we have seen selling of treasuries. yield going up for as fortraight sessions currencies, not a lot of movement day. there's been a bit of bouncing around. we are seeing little movement by the euro and the pound today. we will see if that changes with the minutes. gold pricing had interesting action today. one would think with this risk on assessment, gold would not be doing well. it is not doing great, but not down at all right now. it has not b

the founder of stock tech -- and our own bloomberg intelligence economist, carl riccadonna. let's get to ramy inocencio, who has first word. ramy: plenty of fireworks at the first presidential debate. hillary clinton and bernie sanders squared off last night in new hampshire on msnbc. sanders said he is the democrat who will represent the people. bernie sanders: our campaign is a campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. secretary clinton does represent the establishment. i represent, i hope, ordinary americans, who are not all that in amer -- who are not all that enamored with the establishment. hillary clinton: bernie sanders is the only person who would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment. battled over also clinton's ties to wall street. she says that sanders is trying to smear her. republican marco rubio has moved to second place in new hampshire and is closing the gap with donald trump, who, according to a poll from cnn/w m you are, has 18%, marco rubio at 13%. president obama will propose